Threat and Assimilation: Evidence from Refugees in Germany

Abstract

"This paper studies how local threat shapes refugees’ cultural assimilation and economic integration, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in their allocation across German regions between 2013 and 2016. Using representative survey data and administrative records, we measure cultural preferences alongside employment, earnings, and job characteristics, and build a threat index combining contemporaneous and historical local xenophobia. Refugees assigned to more hostile regions converge more rapidly to Germans’ stated preferences, yet do not find jobs faster and experience slower earnings growth. We show that local hostility heightens threat perceptions, prompting quicker cultural adoption, while higher discrimination slows refugees’ successful economic integration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Oxford Academic) ((en))

Cite article

Jaschke, P., Sardoschau, S. & Tabellini, M. (2026): Threat and Assimilation: Evidence from Refugees in Germany. In: The Economic Journal, p. 1-70. DOI:10.1093/ej/ueag117