Fachkräftemonitoring für das BMAS - Mittelfristprognose bis 2029

Abstract

"The Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs has commissioned the QuBe cooperation project to conduct a monitoring on skilled labour in order to compile an annual medium-term forecast. This closes the gap between the analysis of skilled labour shortages of the Federal Employment Agency (BA) and the long-term projections of the QuBe-project. Currently, the Federal Republic of Germany is facing a number of challenges due to the evolving security landscape, economic upheavals and increased uncertainties regarding possible developments in foreign trade. The challenges posed by demographic change and a declining population, largely attributable to a substantial drop in immigration, are additional issues to be addressed. The augmentation in defence expenditure, in conjunction with the 500- billion-euro infrastructure package, will exert an influence on the economy with regard to demand. These factors are affecting the labour market, leading to changes in employment across different occupations. A substantial increase is expected in the number of occupations characterised by labour shortages in comparison to the 2024-2028 medium-term forecast. At the same time, a reduction in employment is in certain occupational groups during the forecast period. This development can be attributed to the retirement of the baby boomer generation. In addition, it is anticipated that investments from the infrastructure and defence package will result in an increase in demand for workers in certain construction occupations and in manufacturing. At the same time, demand within the IT and healthcare sectors continues to be high." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Zika, G., Kalinowski, M., Krinitz, J., Maier, T., Mönnig, A., Schneemann, C., Schroer, J., Wolter, M. & Zenk, J. (2025): Fachkräftemonitoring für das BMAS - Mittelfristprognose bis 2029. (Forschungsbericht / Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales 670), Berlin, 59 p.