Germany as a stopover? Insights into return and International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa)

Abstract

"Temporary migration of people who have immigrated to Germany is a frequently observed phenomenon, and the trend is rising. Between 2014 and 2023, the average emigration rate among foreign nationals ranged from 6 to 11 percent, depending on the data source. At the same time, Germany requires a net annual immigration of around 400,000 people to stabilize its labor force potential. The high mobility propensity among immigrants can challenge this goal - with far-reaching consequences for securing skilled labor, integration, and the long-term viability of the welfare state. To gain robust insights into the causes, patterns, and effects of mobility, the International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) has been established as a new longitudinal online survey. It includes first-time surveys every two years, complemented by annual follow-up surveys over a four-year period. In the first wave (December 2024 to April 2025), around 50,000 immigrants participated. The first follow-up survey is scheduled for the second half of 2025. Using statistical weighting procedures, the data allow for representative statements about individuals in Germany who immigrated by April 2, 2024, are registered in the data of the Federal Employment Agency (e.g. via employment, benefit receipt, or participation in labor market programs), and are in working age (18 to 65 years). Key findings from the first wave indicate: A narrow majority of immigrants (57 percent, roughly 5.7 million people) plan to stay in Germany permanently. Around 1.2 million (12 percent) aim for a temporary stay, and roughly 3 million (30 percent) remain uncertain. About 2.6 million people (26 percent) reported having considered leaving Germany in the last 12 months; approximately 300,000 (3 percent) already have concrete emigration plans - split roughly equally between return migration and onward migration. Given Germany's structural need for skilled labor, the political priority in migration policy is shifting: not only immigration, but also the long-term retention of immigrants is becoming a key challenge. The data reveal that emigration intentions vary widely. Those intending to return primarily target European countries such as Poland or Romania but also Turkey, while onward migrants tend to prefer Switzerland, the United States, or Spain. Motivations also differ: family reasons dominate returns to the country of origin, while economic opportunities play a key role in onward migration. Main reasons for emigration considerations include political dissatisfaction, personal preferences, tax burdens, and bureaucracy. These motives are present among labor migrants, education- and family-based migrants alike; refugees also frequently cite discrimination as a major reason. Overall, the findings suggest that state measures such as reducing bureaucracy, simplifying administrative procedures, and offering tax incentives could help lower emigration intentions. Regarding sociodemographic and migration-specific factors, the IMPa results highlight their central role in shaping emigration intentions. Men report higher rates of temporary stay intentions, emigration considerations, and concrete migration plans than women. Region of origin and reason for migration significantly influence mobility patterns: refugees and individuals with family reunification backgrounds express considerably lower emigration tendencies, while migrants from EU countries and those who came for work or education show higher mobility. Furthermore, immigrants with permanent residence status or EU/German citizenship are more likely to consider leaving - probably due to broader legal mobility options. The IMPa results highlight that labor market factors and economic integration also play a critical but nuanced role in shaping emigration intentions. Education emerges as a key predictor: highly educated individuals more frequently express thoughts of leaving or make concrete plans than those with lower educational levels. Qualifications obtained in Germany or third countries - as well as foreign qualifications recognized in Germany - are more strongly associated with emigration considerations, likely due to their higher international transferability. Employed individuals are more likely to report temporary stay intentions than those who are not employed or are in training. Sectors where the outmigration risk among immigrants is particularly high-such as IT and technical services-are also those facing significant skilled labor shortages. Furthermore, it is notable that in other sectors vulnerable to labor shortages-such as healthcare, construction, public administration, or retail-, emigration tendencies are not above average, but they are still relevant. Higher incomes are also associated with stronger emigration considerations and plans, which indicates that migrants who are particularly well integrated into the labor market want to leave Germany again. Another important factor is job satisfaction: the less satisfied individuals are with their work, the more frequently they express temporary intentions to stay, thoughts of emigration, and concrete emigration plans. Job satisfaction thus acts as a stabilizing factor. Language skills show differentiated effects: while descriptive findings suggest that individuals with poor German skills have lower intentions to stay permanently and higher mobility plans, multivariate analyses indicate that good German skills are associated with increased mobility. Good English skills also tend to increase emigration intentions, likely due to better international labor market options. Social integration and societal participation are also crucial: family ties in Germany and regular contact with German nationals have a stabilizing effect. A strong emotional attachment to Germany stabilizes the intention to stay, whereas a strong connection to the country of origin increases the likelihood of emigration. A strong subjective sense of welcome and low perceptions of discrimination significantly reduce the probability of emigration considerations and plans. Conversely, perceptions of discrimination - especially in interactions with authorities, police, and at the workplace - greatly increases emigration tendencies. Political dissatisfaction also significantly raises the likelihood of emigration-related thoughts and plans. In summary, emigration intentions do not arise randomly but are the result of a complex interplay of individual characteristics, social integration, economic anchoring, and perceived societal acceptance. One of the central findings of the IMPa survey is that those who came to Germany for work or education, better educated, more economically successful, and more linguistically integrated are the ones most likely to consider leaving or already have concrete plans to do so. In other words: those most urgently needed to secure Germany's future labor supply are also those most inclined to leave. This selective mobility endangers the country's long-term ability to retain skilled labor. It is therefore essential to offer this group a meaningful perspective and to position Germany not only as a place of immigration but as a country in which people want to stay and build their future. This includes faster and more transparent recognition of qualifications, a determined reduction of bureaucratic hurdles, family-friendly integration policies, and targeted measures against everyday and workplace discrimination. Only when immigrants feel like fully included members of society - with real opportunities for participation and professional advancement - are they likely to choose Germany as their long-term home and pursue both personal and professional goals here. So far, only about one fifth of those with emigration plans have taken concrete steps towards leaving. At the same time, roughly one fifth express a long-term wish to return to Germany, one third rule it out, and about half remain undecided. This means that around two thirds of those considering emigration are potentially open to returning in the future. Activating and supporting this return potential could become a valuable component of Germany's strategic labor policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Kosyakova, Y., Olbrich, L., Gallegos Torres, K., Hammer, L., Koch, T. & Wagner, S. (2025): Germany as a stopover? Insights into return and International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa). (IAB-Forschungsbericht 15/2025 (en)), Nürnberg, 92 p. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2515en