QuBe-Bevölkerungsprojektion für die Kreise und kreisfreien Städte Deutschlands

Abstract

"The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has produced a new population projection for long-term development up to the year 2050 as part of the long-term qualification and occupation projections (www.QuBe-Projekt.de). In addition to updated population figures at the federal level, a projection for the 401 districts within Germany is determined for the first time. This regional QuBe population projection differs from existing projections in particular by distinguishing between persons with and without German citizenship. The distinction in terms of origin facilitates a more precise projection, as it allows for the inclusion of differences in birth rates and migration flows. As the first population projection, the QuBe population projection also considers the changes in migration patterns within Germany caused by the Corona pandemic and the war against Ukraine. Our results show that, in addition to an aging population, the trend toward urbanization is intensifying the population decline in rural areas and especially in eastern Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Studtrucker, M., Kalinowski, M., Schneemann, C., Söhnlein, D. & Zika, G. (2022): QuBe-Bevölkerungsprojektion für die Kreise und kreisfreien Städte Deutschlands. (IAB-Discussion Paper 19/2022), Nürnberg, 37 p. DOI:10.48720/IAB.DP.2219