Ein Vorschlag zur Verteilung von Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine

Abstract

"A large number of refugees were forced to leave the Ukraine as a consequence of the Russian aggression. Some 260,000 refugees of those have immigrated to Germany by March 28, 2022. All persons, who are not hosted privately by family members and friends, might be subject to administrative dispersal policies in Germany. The dispersal across the Federal States („Länder“) in Germany is carried out by the so-called „Königsteiner Schlüssel“ at present, a key based on population size and tax revenues. The Federal States in turn allocate the refugee population across the municipalities by different keys. Main criteria are population size and the availability of housing. As a result, the refugee population has been distributed in the past disproportionally into regions with weak economic prospects and above-average unemployment rates. This has hampered labor market integration considerably. Empirical studies have shown that local labor market conditions in particular have a long-lasting impact on integration chances. Thus, the initial dispersal of the refugee population has sustainable implications on future integration prospects. We advocate that the reallocation of refugees is restricted to those people who are dependent on the public provision of housing. Moreover, preferences of the refugees with respect to family ties and other networks should be considered. The presence of such networks has a significant effect on a successful integration. In case of reallocation, we argue that the local conditions for a successful integration must be considered. In this report, we discuss several aspects which are relevant for integration and vary considerably across regions: absorptive capacity of local labor markets to employ immigrants as well as the availability of child-care and housing. As an indicator for the availability of housing we use the regional rental costs, which are in our view a good proxy for shortages in the housing market. Based on these insights and corresponding empirical evidence, we propose an alternative allocation rule for dispersal policies which is based on a labor market indicator, child-care capacities and rental costs in regional housing markets. An allocation of refugees according to this rule could raise employment probabilities by 5 to 10 per cent. This would increase, however, average housing costs at the district level by 4 per cent. Nevertheless, high housing costs initially may pay-off in the long-term since the chances for labor market integration will presumably increase substantially relative to a dispersal according to the “Königsteiner Schlüssel” across the Federal States and other dispersal rules for the allocation across municipalities within the Federal States. Employment probabilities can be increased further if a higher degree of regional concentration is accepted." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Brücker, H., Dauth, W., Haas, A., Jaschke, P., Kosyakova, Y., Mense, A., Moritz, M., Phan thi Hong, V. & Wolf, K. (2022): Ein Vorschlag zur Verteilung von Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 05/2022), Nürnberg, 31 p. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2205