The consequences of the coalition agreement's new climate and housing policies on the economy and labour market

Abstract

"This research report describes the effects of new targets and measures on climate protection and social housing in the coalition agreement of the new coalition on the economy and labour market. Only those measures are taken into account which could be quantified based on the coalition agreement or by the project team. Based on model calculations, two scenarios are simulated: one without the coalition agreement (reference scenario) and one with new measures (KoaV scenario). The aim is to answer the question of whether and in which areas the additional investments and measures - compared with the previous government - will increase or reduce demand for skilled workers. And this is irrespective of whether the previous government's targets have been undercut or exceeded with the previous developments and measures. The calculations are therefore based on the assumption that the previous government's targets would have been achieved exactly. Whether the previous developments and measures actually have led to the achievement of the targets is not the subject of the analysis. The coalition agreement includes various specific measures that affect the economy and the labour market via different channels. However, many of these measures lack concrete quantification for the time being. For this reason, the present analysis focuses on those packages of measures that could be quantified in a first step by the QuBe team and can also be implemented in the model. For those measures and plans that had already existed or were planned in a similar way under the previous government, only the difference to the new targets was taken into account." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Zika, G., Maier, T., Mönnig, A., Schneemann, C., Steeg, S., Weber, E., Wolter, M. & Krinitz, J. (2022): Die Folgen der neuen Klima- und Wohnungsbaupolitik des Koalitionsvertrags für Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 03/2022), Nürnberg, 37 p. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2203