Demographic aging leads to a sharp decline in the labor force potential

Abstract

"In the long term, demographic developments in Germany will lead to a decline in the number of people of working age and thus also in the potential labor force. The age structure is also shifting significantly toward older cohorts. For demographic reasons alone, the labor force would decline by 16 million workers between 2020 and 2060. However, an increase in the labor force participation of women and older age groups combined with immigration from abroad will mitigate the demographic effect. At an average net migration of 100,000 persons per year, the decline in the labor force is projected to be 9 million by 2060. In a variant with extremely high migration gains, the labor force potential would even remain roughly constant. A sensitivity analysis supplements the consideration with the question of what effects could arise if the participation rates increased even further." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Söhnlein, D. & Weber, B. (2022): Demografische Alterung führt zu einem stark sinkenden Erwerbspersonenpotenzial. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Vol. 102, No. 2, p. 148-150. DOI:10.1007/s10273-022-3118-3