Aktualisierte BMAS-Prognose „Digitalisierte Arbeitswelt“

Abstract

"The updated forecast of a "Digitalisierten Arbeitswelt" is based on new data and new or updated assumptions. The consequences of the COVID 19 (Coronavirus SARSCoV-2) pandemic and the associated distortions in the economy and the labor market are also considered. In Germany, the population will continue to grow to 84.13 million by 2029, but will then decrease to 83.74 million by 2040. Especially in the eastern and northeastern labor market regions, the population is declining at an above-average rate. Around 3.6 million new jobs will be created and at the same time around 5.3 million jobs will be lost compared to today. Almost one third (1.7 million) of the disproportionate loss of jobs is due to demographic developments and the associated decline in the workforce. The structural change by sector is also accelerating and the manufacturing industry is continuing to lose its share of all employed persons. At the same time, structural change is having a stronger impact in many eastern German labor market regions compared to the national average. In the long term, shortages of skilled workers will mainly be seen in the healthcare professions and in professions that require a high level of ICT skills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Schneemann, C., Zika, G., Kalinowski, M., Maier, T., Krebs, B., Steeg, S., Bernardt, F., Mönnig, A., Parton, F., Ulrich, P. & Wolter, M. (2021): Aktualisierte BMAS-Prognose „Digitalisierte Arbeitswelt“. (Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales. Forschungsbericht 526/3), Berlin, 76 p.