Projection of the labor force potential up to 2060: Demographic development causes labor supply to shrink sharply

Abstract

"In the long term, demographic developments in Germany will lead to a decline in the number of people of working age and thus also in the potential labor force. Higher labor force participation by women and, above all, by older people can only mitigate this trend. Immigration from abroad strengthens the demographic base, but is not necessarily sufficient to fully compensate for the demographic effect. As in previous projections of the labor force potential, several projection variants are calculated to show the impact of migration. We discuss two variants in more detail: a variant derived from a stochastic forecast model and a variant with extremely high migration, in which the labor force potential would remain roughly constant in the long term. A sensitivity analysis supplements the analysis with the question of what effects could result from significantly higher increases in labor force participation rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Söhnlein, D. & Weber, B. (2021): Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Demografische Entwicklung lässt das Arbeitskräfteangebot stark schrumpfen. (IAB-Kurzbericht 25/2021), Nürnberg, 12 p.