Die langfristigen Folgen von Covid-19, Demografie und Strukturwandel für die Bundesländer

Abstract

"Since 2010, the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), in collaboration with the Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS), have been producing a biennial baseline projection for the long-term development of labour demand and supply according to qualifications and occupations (www.QuBe-Projekt.de). The QuBe baseline projection reflects the labour market development if existing trends and behaviours in the education system and in the economy are maintained. Future shocks and/or trend breaks (e.g. "Economy 4.0" or changes in mobility behaviour) are analysed and considered in the form of alternative scenarios. Since the updated database shows a strong increase in online trade and new registrations of purely electrically powered vehicles, these developments are also taken into account in the QuBe basic projection. On the other hand, the short-term effects of the Covid 19 pandemic that broke out in Germany at the beginning of 2020 are also included in the QuBe baseline projection - but any resulting medium- and long-term changes in behaviour on the part of companies and/or individuals are not. The measures adopted in the German government's economic stimulus package of June 3, 2020 (Wolter et al. 2020) and the climate package of December 16, 2019 (Mönnig et al. 2020) are also taken into account. The uncertainties arising in the course of the Covid 19 pandemic and the lack of financing opportunities for companies are leading to a lower propensity to invest and shrinking global trade. In addition, production stops and closures have torn up supply chains. The closures have a strong negative impact on private household consumption. The lack of travel and the reduced opportunities for consumption due to lower income (short-time working) are also contributing to the decline in economic output. All in all, the shutdown and the associated economic slump mean that real gross domestic product in 2020 will be 8.4 percent lower than in a "counterfactual scenario", which represents a world without the Covid 19 pandemic (Maier et al. 2020). The extent to which medium- and long-term changes in behaviour caused by the pandemic could affect the future development of the economy and labour market is currently being investigated and will be published as soon as possible. In the long term, the central findings of the previous projection by federal state up to 2035 (see Zika et al. 2020) remain valid, as the long-term consequences of the Covid 19 pandemic are overlaid by the consequences of demographic developments. However, it is to be expected that the Covid 19 pandemic will probably accelerate the structural change that has been observed for years away from manufacturing industry and towards services. The IT sector is likely to be the main beneficiary of this, as well as the healthcare, home and social services sectors. Comparative results on the level of the federal states are presented in the IAB Report 1|2021. The results for the individual federal states presented in this report thus supplement and deepen the brief report." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Zika, G., Schneemann, C., Hummel, M., Bernardt, F., Kalinowski, M., Maier, T., Mönnig, A., Steeg, S. & Wolter, M. (2021): Die langfristigen Folgen von Covid-19, Demografie und Strukturwandel für die Bundesländer. Detaillierte Bundeslands-Ergebnisse der 6. Welle der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 01/2021), Nürnberg, 340 p.