Bedeutung und Modellierung von Migrationsprozessen im Rahmen von Bevölkerungs- und Arbeitsmarktprognosen

Abstract

"Population projections are influenced most significantly by underlying assumptions regarding future migration. As projecting migration is a most difficult task, modeling future migration flows is just as important as it is challenging. Our study compares different approaches to predict international migration flows using scenario computation. We apply our model to the case of Germany and restrict our analysis to non-German nationals as this part of the population shows a stronger tendency to migrate than German nationals. We apply a deterministic simulation model to analyze the connection of immigration, emigration, net migration and the emigration rate. In particular, the feedback mechanism of emigration and immigration is studied, as this plays an important role in the level of future net migration. The results show the large sensitivity of projections of population and labor supply to the chosen migration modeling approach. An inadequate approach can lead to unrealistic projections of the population and, therefore, of the potential labor force. We derive two major recommendations from our study. Firstly, population projections should consider the link between emigration and immigration more explicitly. Secondly, migration policy should address the topic of emigration more as it has hitherto been the case." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Söhnlein, D. & Vanella, P. (2020): Bedeutung und Modellierung von Migrationsprozessen im Rahmen von Bevölkerungs- und Arbeitsmarktprognosen. In: P. Deschermeier, J. Fuchs, I. Iwanow & C. B. Wilke (Hrsg.) (2020): Zur Relevanz von Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen für Arbeitsmarkt-, Bildungs- und Regionalpolitik, Bielefeld, wbv p. 94-117.