Air passenger mobility, travel restrictions, and the transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic between countries

Abstract

"In this study, I discuss the role of international air traffic in spreading the new coronavirus COVID-19 around the world, with a focus on travel restrictions. I build on a sample of 34 mostly European countries reporting international flights to 154 destination countries. This dataset is combined with information on daily reported cases of COVID-19 infections in these countries. I find that more connected countries registered first infection cases significantly earlier than less connected countries. This effect was reinforced by direct flight connections to China. I also show that severe travel restrictions were implemented relatively late in most countries. For a group of 120 countries included in the sample of analysis, three out of four countries already had more than 50 confirmed cases when travel restrictions were implemented. In contrast, very early implementations of air travel restrictions were associated with a delayed onset of infections. As a takeaway for future outbreaks of infectious diseases, the results suggests that the early implementation of travel restrictions could be key in slowing down the spread of infections around the world. The design of a global emergency stop in international travel requires a high level of coordination at a multilateral level in order to preserve supply chains as much as possible." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Keita, S. (2020): Air passenger mobility, travel restrictions, and the transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic between countries. In: Covid economics No. 9, p. 77-96.