Langfristige Folgen von Demografie und Strukturwandel für die Bundesländer

Abstract

"Since 2010, the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), in collaboration with the Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS), have been producing a baseline projection of the long-term development of labour demand and supply by qualifications and occupations every two years (www.QuBe-Projekt.de). The QuBe baseline projection reflects the labour market development if existing trends and behaviours in the education system and in the economy are maintained. It shows a consistent development path of demographic and economic changes. Scenario analyses are used to illustrate developments that diverge from the QuBe baseline projection, such as an increased 'digitalised working world' (WOLTER 2018, ZIKA et al. 2018a) or the conversion to more e-mobility (MÖNNIG et al. 2018).<br> The current fifth wave of the QuBe baseline projection (MAIER et al. 2018) describes the development of the labour supply (working population) and the labour demand (number of employed persons) up to the year 2035, differentiated according to 144 occupational groups (three-digit) of the Classification of Occupations 2010 (MAIER et al. 2018, ZIKA et al. 2018a, ZIKA et al. 2018b). A regional presentation of the results of the projection has already been made in the third (ZIKA et al. 2015) and fourth wave of projections (ZIKA et al. 2017). However, this was limited to six regions and the presentation according to 20 main occupational groups. Condsidering the importance of regional labour markets for the emergence and solution of matching problems on the labour market, the data infrastructure of the QuBe project has now been expanded to allow the development of labour supply and demand to be evaluated and projected by federal states and labour market regions.<br> In the IAB Research Report 1|2020: 'Long-term Consequences of Demography and Structural Change for Regional Labour Markets', the extended QuBe basic projection is presented with regard to the regional breakdown. The focus is on the data used, the methods employed and the possibilities for analysis. Comparative results at the level of the federal states are presented at the end of the report. The presentation of results at the level of the labour market regions will be generated within the framework of a research assignment by the BMAS and will therefore be published separately. In this research report, a chapter is dedicated to each federal state and detailed federal state results are presented. This report thus complements the IAB Research Report 1|2020." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Zika, G., Schneemann, C., Hummel, M., Maier, T., Kalinowski, M., Bernardt, F., Mönnig, A., Parton, F., Sonnenburg, A., Ulrich, P. & Wolter, M. (2020): Langfristige Folgen von Demografie und Strukturwandel für die Bundesländer. Detaillierte Bundeslands-Ergebnisse der 5. Welle der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 02/2020), Nürnberg, 312 p.