Abstract

In 2015, the Federal Office for Migrants and Refugees (BAMF) recorded the arrival of 890,000 refugees to Germany. Another 290,000 came in 2016. The most recent figures show that 442,000 new asylum applications were filed in 2015, and a further 722,000 in 2016 (BAMF, 2016a). This large influx of refugees is not only unprecedented in the post-war history of Germany, it also constitutes the largest human influx reported since WWII among both EU Member States and high-income countries of the OECD. This Project aims to explore the impact of this refugee inflow in two parts. First, we will explore how refugees fare by investigating the role of ethnic enclaves in human capital acquisition of refugees. Second, we will explore the impact of this refugee inflow on labor market outcomes of natives. In addition to collecting primary data on refugee inflows, we will rely on two secondary data sources: (i) the IAB-BAMF-SOEP refugee sample which is the sole representative and comprehensive data set of the recent refugee inflow to Germany and (ii) monthly administrative data from the Federal Employment Agency
(Bundesagentur für Arbeit) on nationals from the main countries of origin of refugees and a novel dataset created from the files on unemployed, job-seeking and benefit-recipient refugees registered by the Federal  Employment Agency. Causal identification of impact of refugee inflows and refugee concentration on human capital acquisition of refugees and labor market outcomes of natives will come from plausibly exogenous refugee placement rules applied by national and state governments in Germany.