Abstract

In order to analyse the effects of the two megatrends of digitalization and climate change on the labour market in Lower Saxony, this study uses the concept of the substitution potential. These calculated potentials represent the proportion of activities within a particular occupation that could already be automated at a certain point in time through the use of computers and computer-controlled machines. On the other hand, a climate index is calculated that shows for which sectors climate change and the resulting climate policy predominantly offer opportunities or primarily harbor risks. The results of the study indicate that both megatrends pose challenges for parts of the economy examined. However, those that have arisen to date as a result of the dynamic development of digitalization appear to be more pressing for larger parts of the economy. Structural changes in employment, production or service provision and/or in business models are most likely to be expected as an adaptation reaction in those sectors in which both megatrends are expected to have a predominantly potentially negative impact and which also have high substitution potential.