Abstract

Using model calculations, the BIBB-IAB Qualification and Occupational Field Projections (QuBe Project) resulting from cooperation with The Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS) show how supply and demand for qualifications and professions may develop in the long term. The QuBe project follows an empiricism based concept in the baseline projection: It only projects patterns verifiable thus far for the future. Any changes in patterns which have not been detected in the past are therefore not part of the baseline projection. Future shocks or breaks in the trend (for example „Economy 4.0“, immigration of refugees) are analyzed and considered using alternative Scenarios. Within the framework of the "BMAS-Fachkräftemonitorings", the QuBe team should regularly create long-term projections and Scenarios.