Abstract

The labour market in Germany will undergo a dramatic change due to the demographic development. Solely for demographic reasons the labour force would strongly decrease between 2015 and 2060. An upward shift in the labour participation rates of women and older age groups in conjunction with migration can only dampen the demographic effect. As the unstable migration flows can hardly be predicted, the project develops several scenarios in respect to migration. A sensitivity analysis with several alternative assumptions complements our forecast.