Abstract

The aim of this project is to investigate whether and how substitution potentials have developed over the last 10 years. Substitution potentials determine the extent to which occupational tasks could be replaced by computers or computer-controlled machines at a certain point in time. As technologies continue to evolve, but also the job profiles in occupations change, new occupations and tasks emerge and employees change their occupation, these substitution potentials are redetermined every three years – so far for 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022. The fact that a task is classified as substitutable does not mean that it will only be performed by computers and computer-controlled machines in the future, as the substitution potential only says something about the technical feasibility. Whether this potential is exploited at all also depends on a number of other aspects. Dengler and Matthes (2018) have already been able to prove that, on average, employment grew less strongly between 2013 and 2016 when the substitution potential in an occupation was higher. We are therefore investigating the relationship between substitution potentials and employment as well as wage growth in the following 10 years. In a first step, the occupational panel will be used as data. In a second step, however, the analyses will also be carried out at employee level.