Abstract

This is a follow-up project to project no. 3112, which analyzed the short-term effects of active labor market programs for unemployed refugees on welfare who entered Germany between 2013 and 2016. Administrative data from the statistics department of the Federal Employment Agency was used for the analysis. The statistical analysis compared the labor market outcomes of refugees who participated in active labor market programs between the 1st of October 2016 and the 31st of March 2017 to a matched control group of refugees who did not participate in these programs in the same time period. The effects on unsubsidized employment subject to social security, income and welfare receipt were examined for a period of 21 months after the start of the treatment and have been published in 2021 in the form of an IAB-Kurzbericht no. 7/2021 (Kasrin, Stockinger and Tübbicke) and as an IAB-forum article (Tübbicke and Kasrin), both in German. The central finding of the project no.3112 is that four out of the five studied active labor market programs increased the labor market success of participating refugees, and that the magnitude of the short-term effects were similar to those found for the general population of unemployed persons on welfare in Germany. In this follow-up project, we examine the extent to which those active labor market policy measures promote the labor market integration of refugees in the medium to long term. Using the same sample and treatment definition, the existing data set will be used and outcome information will be added over time once they become available. Outcomes of interest are participation effects on the probability of taking up unsubsidized employment subject to social insurance contributions, welfare benefit receipt and earned labor income. Participation effects on the stability of employment may also be considered. By 2024, labor market outcomes can be analyzed for a period of 5 years after treatment.