The war in Ukraine triggered a global trade shock, with German exports to Russia also
collapsing abruptly. Using this break, we analyse whether the exports were redirected to
other destinations. We divide the world market into three regions: domestic, eurozone, and
the rest of the world (ROW). In a panel model of German industries, we find that higher
export exposure to Russia meant lower sales to the ROWafter the war began. This was offset
by higher sales in the eurozone and domestic markets. The effects occurred quickly but
later receded. We find no production decline due to the trade shock.
A note on export redirection: Evidence following the onset of the war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine triggered a global trade shock. This paper analyses whether there was a diversion of exports.