This paper explores the effects of childhood import shocks on long-run outcomes using linked full-count Census data between 1910 and 1940 and a novel identification strategy that isolates quasi-random variation in local import competition.
We show that individuals exposed to import competition in their first 10 years of life report lower incomes and reduced upward mobility 30 years later, with effects that fall most heavily on the left tail of the income distribution. More exposed individuals also exhibit lower educational attainment and increased mobility between states.
Intergenerational structural change plays a critical role in our results, with import competition reducing the probability that sons work in high-earning, high-education occupations regardless of their father’s income level.
(Joint work with John Lopresti and Andrew Greenland).
Date
16.12.2025
, 4 p.m. until 5.30 p.m.
Speaker
Associate Professor Mine Senses, Johns Hopkins University
Venue
WISO
Room LG 4.154, Lange Gasse 20, 90403 Nürnberg
Online participation will be possible via Zoom. I will send the login link along with a short reminder one day before the seminar.
Registration
Researchers who would like to participate, please send an email to macrolabor.seminar@gmail.com