Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

Competing for jobs: How COVID-19 changes search behaviour in the labour market

Little is known so far about how the corona crisis has changed search processes in the labour market. We provide insights on labour market competition, reallocation of applications and potential sullying effects by analysing data from the LinkedIn professional network for Germany. We find that competition among workers for jobs strongly increased. The data allow us to trace that back to additional job seekers rather than higher search intensity. Furthermore, the LinkedIn data show that people from industries particularly affected by the crisis apply much more frequently and there has been a substantial shift in the target industries for applications. Finally, we find that dur-ing the crisis applications are made significantly more often below and significantly less often above a person’s level of seniority.

IAB-Discussion Paper 33/2020

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Unemployment insurance for the self-employed: a way forward post-corona

With the COVID-19 crisis as background, the underlying paper elaborates on setting up an unemployment insurance for self-employed. While a comprehensive approach would have clear advantages, it is crucial to adapt the rules of existing insurances for wage earners appropriately addressing the specific needs of self-employed. Therefore, we discuss key rules and conditions with regard to self-employed and derive conclusions on how unemployment insurance for them should be designed. In this, we investigate the key elements of such an insurance.

IAB-Discussion Paper 32/2020

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New European Labour Market Barometer shows: prospects on the labour market are stabilising

A European Labour Market Barometer, published for the first time on Tuesday, shows: The prospects on the labour market are stabilising in many European countries. The European Labour Market Barometer was 98.7 points in September. Compared to the previous month, it has risen by 0.8 points. After the labour market indicator fell by 6.9 to 93.6 points in April, a considerable part of the decline has now been offset. "The situation on the labour market in Europe is stabilising, but the crisis is not over yet", explains Enzo Weber, who initiated the European project. Risks lie in the infection dynamics and economic transformation.

Press release

European Labour Market Barometer

More about the European Labour Market Barometer can be found at www.iab-forum.de/en/launch-of-the-european-labour-market-barometer

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To work or to study? Postmigration educational investments of adult refugees in Germany – evidence from a choice experiment

In this article, we analyze individual factors and situational conditions under which immigrants are more or less likely to invest in host country-specific human capital. Theoretically, we root our expectations in a strand of the immigrant human capital investment model combined with a basic model of educational decisions. Using a choice experiment, we simulate a decision process among refugees in Germany and examine the determinants of investment decisions into host country-specific credentials such as vocational education. The choice experiment was introduced in the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees (2020), a representative longitudinal survey of recently arrived refugees in Germany. We find that refugees’ probability of investing in vocational education is guided by the transferability of foreign human capital, the time horizon to reap investments, and rational cost-benefit considerations. The probability of success is influential on its own but also bolsters the relevance of costs and benefits in educational choices.

IAB-Discussion Paper 31/2020

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Keynote-video “The effects of changes in business taxation on firms, workers and local labour markets” by Professor Christian Dustmann

The video shows the keynote speech “The effects of changes in business taxation on firms, workers and local labour markets” by Professor Christian Dustmann, PhD, Professor of Economics at the University College London and Director of the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM). Dustmann investigates how changes in local business taxes affects local labour markets, extablishments, and workers. He held his speech on 7 September 2020 at the IAB-conference “Labour Market Transitions: Challenges for Public Policies and Research” in Nuremberg.

The video of the keynote speech is available at: https://youtu.be/XyZhIySqRdI.

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Keynote-video “Life course trajectories in times of COVID-19. A first assessment” by Professor Jutta Allmendinger is now online

The video shows the keynote speech “Life course trajectories in times of COVID-19. A first assessment” by Professor Dr h. c. Jutta Allmendinger, PhD, President of the WZB Berlin Social Science Center. Allmendinger introduces some key analytical developments of the life course research, explains in what way not everyone is treated equally, traces challenges in times of COVID-19, and draws interferences for policy and research. Allmendinger held her speech on 8 September 2020 at the IAB-conference “Labour Market Transitions: Challenges for Public Policies and Research” in Nuremberg.

The video of the keynote speech is available at: https://youtu.be/MrzFyiBMwUU.

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Germany’s trade with China at the beginning of the global COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world economy in an unprecedented way, with international trade being no exception. Studying trade flows between China and Germany in February 2020 gives a clear picture of what happens when a major shock affects a single trading partner. It helps us learn what to expect from similar future, more geographically limited crisis situations. Studying this particular time window also gives a glimpse into the beginning of a global crisis, which holds the potential to lead to long-lasting changes in the international production networks and division of labour.

The article can be found in our Magazine IAB-Forum

Click the following link for more articles in the series: Series “COVID-19 Crisis: Consequences for the Labour Market”

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Wind of Change? Cultural Determinants of Maternal Labor Supply

Does the culture in which a woman grows up influence her labor market decisions once she has had a child? To what extent might the culture of her present social environment shape maternal labor supply? To address these questions, we exploit the setting of German reunification. A state socialist country, East Germany strongly encouraged mothers to participate in the labor market full-time, whereas West Germany propagated a more traditional male breadwinner-model. After reunification, these two cultures were suddenly thrown together, with consequent increased social interactions between East and West Germans through migration and commuting. A comparison of East and West German mothers on both sides of the former Inner German border within the same commuting zone shows that culture matters. Indeed, East German mothers return to work more quickly and for longer hours than West German mothers even two decades after reunification. Second, in exploiting migration across this old border, we document a strong asymmetry in the persistence of the culture in which women were raised. Whereas East German female migrants return to work earlier and work longer hours than their West German colleagues even after long exposure to the more traditional West German culture, West German migrants adjust their post-birth labor supply behavior nearly entirely to that of their East German colleagues. Finally, taking advantage of differential inflows of East German migrants across West German firms in the aftermath of reunification, we show that even a partial exposure to East German colleagues induces 'native' West German mothers to accelerate their return to work after childbirth, suggesting that migration might be a catalyst for cultural change.

IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2020

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TippingSens: An R Shiny Application to Facilitate Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference Under Confounding

Most strategies for causal inference based on quasi-experimental or observational data critically rely on the assumption of unconfoundedness. If this assumption is suspect, sensitivity analysis can be a viable tool to evaluate the impact of confounding on the analysis of interest. One of the earliest proposals for such a sensitivity analysis was suggested by Rosenbaum/ Rubin (1983). However, while it is straightforward to obtain estimates for the causal effect under specific assumptions regarding an unobserved confounder, conducting a full sensitivity analysis based on a range of parameter settings is unwieldy based on the simple forking tables which Rosenbaum and Rubin used. To tackle the multiple parameter problem of the Rosenbaum-Rubin approach, we present an interactive R Shiny application called TippingSens, which visualizes the impact of various parameter settings on the estimated causal effect. Borrowing from the literature on tipping point analysis, the flexible app facilitates manipulating all parameters simultaneously. We demonstrate the usefulness of our app by conducting a sensitivity analysis for a quasi-experiment measuring the effect of vocational training programs on unemployed men. The online supplement accompanying this paper provides a step-by-step introduction to the app using the original illustrative example from Rosenbaum/Rubin (1983).

IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2020

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Training, wages and a missing school graduation cohort

This study analyzes the effects of a missing high school graduation cohort on firms’ training provision and trainees’ wages. An exogenous school reform varying at the state and year level caused the missing cohort to occur. Using administrative social security data on all trainees and training firms, we show that firms provide less training by reducing their overall number of hired apprentices. We also show that the pool of firms that offer training in the year of the missing cohort shifts towards a higher share of low wage firms. After keeping firm characteristics constant, the findings indicate that the missing cohort increases training wages measured at the start of training. Further analyses shed light on the opposite case of dual cohorts, which we find to increase training provision and to decrease training wages. The evidence also shows that high and low wage firms differ in how they adjust training provision in response to a dual cohort.

IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2020

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Employment Subsidies for Long-Term Welfare Benefits Recipients: Reconciling Programmes’ Goals with Needs of Diverging Population Groups

We discuss the design and examine the inflow of participants in two new subsidised employment programmes (§ 16 e/i German Social Code II) that aim to help long-term welfare recipients in Germany to find a job and increase their social participation. We describe the programmes in terms of goals and eligibility criteria and proceed to analyse recent inflows into the programmes using Latent Class (Cluster) Analysis in an exploratory manner. Our findings provide evidences on the considerable heterogeneity in the programmes’ inflows. The resulting typology does not only connect individual biographical and socioeconomic characteristics with greater sociohistorical processes, but give strong hints towards different needs of the various participant groups which could be treated differently in the programmes. Keeping up and improving social integration through subsidized labour is a high priority treatment to be considered for some participant groups, while others should be considered more for improvements of education and professional training, even if their biographies so far show most distance to both. Our results provide first guidance on how to adjust programme’s design to the needs and capabilities of heterogeneous groups of long-term unemployed and welfare benefit recipients.

IAB-Discussion Paper 27/2020

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