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Genz, Sabrina, Markus Janser & Florian Lehmer (2019): The impact of investments in new digital technologies on wages - worker-level evidence from Germany. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 239, H. 3, S. 483-521., 2019-04-03. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2017-0161

Abstract

"The strong rise of digitalization, automation, machine learning and other related new digital technologies has led to an intense debate about their societal impacts. The transitions of occupations and the effects on labor demand and workers' wages are still open questions. Research projects dealing with this issue often face a lack of data on the usage of new digital technologies. This paper uses a novel linked employer - employee data set that contains detailed information on establishments' technological upgrading between 2011 and 2016, a recent period of rapid technological progress. Furthermore, we are the first to develop a digital tools index based on the German expert database BERUFENET. The new index contains detailed information on the work equipment that is used by workers. Hence, we observe the degree of digitalization on both the establishment level and the worker level. The data allow us to investigate the impact of technology investments on the wage growth of employees within establishments. Overall, the results from individual level fixed effects estimates suggest that investments in new digital technologies at the establishment level positively affect the wages of the establishments' workers. Sector-specific results show that investments in new digital technologies increase wages in knowledge intensive production establishments and non-knowledge intensive services. The wage growth effects of employees in digital pioneer establishments relative to the specific reference group of workers in digital latecomer establishments are most pronounced for low- and medium-skilled workers." (Author's abstract, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Gómez-Plana, Antonio G. & María C. Latorre (2019): Digitalization, multinationals and employment: An empirical analysis of their causal relationships. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 239, H. 3, S. 399-439. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2017-0153

Abstract

"This study measures the effects of digitalization related to Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) investment on employment and other economic variables according to firms' ownership. We present two computable general equilibrium models (with full employment and with unemployment) which differentiate two types of firms: National and foreign multinationals (MNEs). Both types of firms allow for the substitution between labour and ICT capital. We conclude that ICT investments significantly create jobs and raise real wages, GDP and welfare. The aggregate positive effects are stronger for ICT investment in national firms than in foreign MNEs although the sign of some sectoral effects can be negative. We also analyze the role of wage flexibility in this context, with the most favorable results related to scenarios where wages are more rigid for both cases, when investors are national firms or foreign MNEs. The model is applied to the case of Spain, a country with a high unemployment rate where ICT investment has been large since the mid 1990s." (Author's abstract, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Knobloch, Ulrike & Gesine Stephan (2019): Bericht von der 17. efas-Fachtagung "Gestalten oder gestaltet werden? Perspektiven feministischer Ökonomie auf Digitalisierung". Berlin, o. Sz.

Abstract

"Am 6. Dezember 2019 diskutierten die 80 Teilnehmerinnen und Teilnehmer der 17. efas-Fachtagung an der Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft (HTW) Berlin zum Tagungsthema 'Gestalten oder gestaltet werden? Perspektiven feministischer Ökonomie auf Digitalisierung'" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Koustas, Dmitri K. (2019): What do big data tell us about why people take gig economy jobs? In: AEA papers and proceedings, Jg. 109, S. 367-371. DOI:10.1257/pandp.20191041

Abstract

"The gig economy is widely regarded to be a source of secondary or temporary income, but little is known about economic activity outside of the gig economy. Using data from a large, online personal finance application, I document the evolution of non-gig income and household balance sheets surrounding the participation decision for gig economy jobs. This simple analysis reveals striking pretrends in income and assets. In addition to providing insight into the reasons why households enter the gig economy, these findings have potentially important implications for the external validity of previous studies focusing on gig economy activity only." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Mönnig, Anke, Gerd Zika & Tobias Maier (2019): Wirtschaft 4.0 - Wachstumspotenziale bei gleichzeitig steigender Lohnungleichheit? In: B. Kohlrausch, C. Schildmann & D. Voss (Hrsg.) (2019): Neue Arbeit - neue Ungleichheiten? : Folgen der Digitalisierung, S. 110-141.

Abstract

Im Fokus des Beitrags stehen zum einen das Wachstumspotenzial der digitalen Transformation, zum anderen ihre Auswirkungen auf die Lohnverteilung. Für die Analyse verwenden die Autoren ein Kreislaufmodell, das neben der interindustriellen Verflechtung der Wirtschaft auch die Einkommensentstehung, -verwendung und -umverteilung berücksichtigt. 'Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die digitale Transformation zwar einerseits zu positiven Wachstumseffekten führt, andererseits aber die Lohnungleichheit verstärkt. Da das allgemeine Lohnniveau steigt, ist die Lohnungleichheit aber hauptsächlich auf einen stärker steigenden Lohn im oberen Verteilungsspektrum zurückzuführen.' (IAB)

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Mönnig, Anke, Tobias Maier & Gerd Zika (2019): Economy 4.0 - Digitalisation and its effect on wage inequality. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 239, H. 3, S. 363-398., 2019-02-01. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2017-0151

Abstract

"This paper contributes to the discussion of the impact of digital transformation on labour markets by analysing the impact on wage inequality. The novelty of this paper is on the one hand the quantitative approach that applies a macroeconometric input-output model which accounts for circular flow in the economy and feedback loops. Most of the studies on wage inequality and digital transformation focus on ex-post analysis. The applied quantitative model used in this paper also allows to perform ex-ante analysis. This is important, as economy 4.0 is not yet reflected in current datasets which makes statements about the impact of economy 4.0 on wage inequality on basis of ex-post analysis difficult.
On the other hand, it uses the inequality measures S80/S20 that has been applied to a unique dataset on employment and wages. The dataset differentiates on industry and occupational level. That allows to identify industry*occupation combination and their location in the upper and/or lower 20 % share ratio of wage distribution. The analysis demonstrates that digital transformation increases wage inequality, however to a low extent. The increase in wage inequality is already implemented in the reference scenario due to structural and demographic change. Digital transformation strengthens the impact of structural change on wage inequality. Especially in the long run, wage inequality rises stronger than in the reference scenario.
Because the digital transformation scenario does not confirm the polarization hypothesis, the impact of economy 4.0 on wage inequality remains rather low. The increasing demand of high-skilled employees is reflected in an increase in wage inequality. However, the relatively low impact of digitalisation on low-skilled employees prevents a stronger increase in wage inequality." (Author's abstract, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Ohlert, Clemens & Pauline Boos (2019): Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung auf Geschlechterungleichheiten. Eine empirische Untersuchung auf der Branchenebene. (Discussion papers des Harriet Taylor Mill-Instituts für Ökonomie und Geschlechterforschung der Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht Berlin 39), Berlin, 22 S.

Abstract

"Ausgehend von der bisherigen Debatte um die Genderaspekte der Digitalisierung der Arbeit betonen wir eine „digitale Arbeitsmarktsegregation“ als mögliche Ursache für Geschlechterungleichheiten und untersuchen diese empirisch. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Frauen seltener in Branchen und Betrieben mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad beschäftigt sind als Männer und dass diese Segregation in den letzten Jahren zunahm. Die Unterrepräsentation von Frauen in Branchen mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad geht mit Nachteilen bei den Verdiensten einher. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass der Gender Pay Gap in Branchen mit intensiver Nutzung digitaler Technologien tendenziell größer ist und über die Zeit weniger zurückging als in Branchen, in denen diese Technologien weniger genutzt werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Parolin, Zachary (2019): Automation and occupational wage trends. What role for unions and collective bargaining? (OECD social, employment and migration working papers 228), Paris, 48 S. DOI:10.1787/596b32ce-en

Abstract

"Routine-biased technological change has emerged as a leading explanation for the differential wage growth of routine occupations, such as manufacturers or office clerks, relative to less routine occupations. Less clear, however, is how the effects of technological advancement on occupational wage trends vary across political-institutional context. This paper investigates the extent to which collective bargaining agreements and union coverage shape the relative wage growth of automatable occupations. Using data from the Luxembourg Income Study and the United States Current Population Survey, I measure the 'routine task intensity' of occupations across 15 OECD Member States and the 50 United States from the 1980s onward. Findings suggest that bargaining coverage is more consequential for the wage growth of high routine occupations relative to less routine occupations, and that high routine occupations lose coverage at a faster rate when bargaining coverage at the national level declines. As a result, declines in bargaining coverage within a country are associated with declining relative wage growth for automatable occupations. Estimates suggest that had union coverage in the United States not declined from 1984 levels, the earnings of high routine occupations might have grown at the same rate as low pay occupations between 1984 and 2015, rather than experiencing a relative wage decline. However, the findings also suggest that gains in the relative wage growth may increasingly come at the cost of reduced employment shares of automatable occupations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schmidpeter, Bernhard & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer (2019): Automation, offshoring and the role of public policies. (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre Linz. Arbeitspapier 1914), Linz, 10 S.

Abstract

"We provide comprehensive evidence on the consequences of automation and offshoreability on the labor market career of unemployed workers. Using almost two decades of administrative data for Austria, we find that risk of automation is reducing the job finding probability; a problem which has increased over the past years. We show that this development is associated with increasing re-employment wages and job stability. For workers in occupations at risk of being offshored we find the opposite effect. Our results imply a trade-off between quantity and quality in these jobs. Provided training is in general beneficial for workers in automation-related jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Terzidis, Nikos, Steven Brakman & Raquel Ortega-Argiles (2019): Labour markets, trade and technological progress: A meta-study. (CESifo working paper 7719), München, 47 S.

Abstract

"Technological progress and trade potentially affect wages and employment. Technological progress can make jobs obsolete and trade can increase unemployment in import competing sectors. Empirical evidence suggests that both causes are important to explain recent labour market developments in many OECD countries. Both causes are often mentioned in tandem, but the relative contribution of each cause is less clear. This study presents a meta-analysis to shed light on the relative contribution of technological progress and trade in recent labour market developments and allows us to identify the winners and losers of automation and globalization. Using a sample of 77 studies and 1158 estimates, we find that both effects are important. Automation is beneficial at the firm level, and is more likely to displace low-skilled employment. Trade is more likely to benefit high-skilled employment and affects industry negatively. Somewhat surprisingly, given the consensus in the literature, automation has a positive effect for estimates considering the period before 1995, and trade a negative effect. We also find some evidence of publication biases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Webb, Michael (2019): The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market. (SSRN papers), Rochester, NY, 60 S. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3482150

Abstract

"I develop a new method to predict the impacts of a technology on occupations. I use the overlap between the text of job task descriptions and the text of patents to construct a measure of the exposure of tasks to automation. I first apply the method to historical cases such as software and industrial robots. I establish that occupations I measure as highly exposed to previous automation technologies saw declines in employment and wages over the relevant periods. I use the fitted parameters from the case studies to predict the impacts of artificial intelligence. I find that, in contrast to software and robots, AI is directed at high-skilled tasks. Under the assumption that the historical pattern of long-run substitution will continue, I estimate that AI will reduce 90:10 wage inequality, but will not affect the top 1%." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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de Pinto, Marco & Laszlo Goerke (2019): Efficiency wages in Cournot-oligopoly. (IZA discussion paper 12351), Bonn, 26 S.

Abstract

"In a Cournot-oligopoly with free but costly entry and business stealing, output per firm is too low and the number of competitors excessive, assuming labor productivity to depend on the number of employees only or to be constant. However, a firm can raise the productivity of its workforce by paying higher wages. We show that such efficiency wages accentuate the distortions occurring in oligopoly. Specifically, excessive entry is aggravated and the welfare loss due to market power rises." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This report documents how the ongoing digital transformation is affecting people's lives across the 11 key dimensions that make up the How's Life? Well-being Framework (Income and wealth, Jobs and earnings, Housing, Health status, Education and skills, Work-life balance, Civic engagement and governance, Social connections, Environmental quality, Personal security, and Subjective well-being). A summary of existing studies highlights 39 key impacts of the digital transformation on people's well-being. The review shows that these impacts can be positive as digital technologies expand the boundaries of information availability and enhance human productivity, but can also imply risks for people's well-being, ranging from cyber-bullying to the emergence of disinformation or cyber-hacking. In sum, making digitalisation work for people's well-being would require building equal digital opportunities, widespread digital literacy and strong digital security. Continued research and efforts in improving statistical frameworks will be needed to expand our knowledge on the many topics covered in this report." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2019): Soziale Auswirkungen von Arbeit 4.0 auf Frauen und die Geschlechtergerechtigkeit. Antwort der Bundesregierung auf die Kleine Anfrage der Abgeordneten und der Fraktion DIE LINKE (Drucksache 19/7204). (Verhandlungen des Deutschen Bundestages. Drucksachen 19/7925 (20.02.2019)), 105 S.

Abstract

Die kleine Anfrage zu den sozialen Auswirkungen von Arbeit 4.0 auf Frauen und die Geschlechtergerechtigkeit betrifft zunächst Unterschiede des Umfangs der Wochenarbeitszeiten, der Arbeitszeitgestaltung, des durchschnittlichen Arbeitsbruttoeinkommens von Frauen und Männern sowie die zunehmende Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen durch die Übernahme von Haus- und Sorgearbeit durch Migrantinnen aus Osteuropa. Wo möglich, werden zur Beantwortung Daten des Betriebs-Historik-Panels 1975 bis 2017 (BHP) genutzt, zur Darstellung der durchschnittlichen wöchentlichen Arbeitszeiten Daten des Statistischen Bundesamtes auf Basis des Mikrozensus herangezogen. Fragen nach berufsqualifizierenden Maßnahme der Bundesagentur für Arbeit bzw. der Jobcenter (ab 2005) werden mithilfe der Förderstatistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit beantwortet. Bei den Fragen nach Branchen, Berufen bzw. Tätigkeitsfeldern, die besonders durch die Digitalisierung profitieren, wird auf die im Rahmen der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen ('QuBe-Projekt', www.qube-projekt. de) gerechneten Wirtschaft 4.0-Szenarien verwiesen. Bezogen auf die Umsätze zeigt das Wirtschaft 4.0-Szenario, dass von der Digitalisierung vor allem die Branchen IT- und Informationsdienstleister, Herstellung von Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteilen, Grundstücks- und Wohnungswesen, Herstellung von DV-Geräten, elektronischen und optischen Erzeugnissen sowie Einzelhandel (ohne Handel mit Kfz) profitieren werden. Auf mehrere Fragen nach geschlechtsspezifischer Verteilung kann wegen der Datenlage nicht geantwortet werden, bei Fragen nach Clickworking, Crowdsourcing etc. wird auf Antworten auf frühere Anfragen und die entsprechenden Bundestagsdrucksachen verwiesen. (IAB)

Abstract

"An overview of the report is presented in the graph on page 15. Going left to right, the figure shows interconnected 'trends': digitalisation, globalisation, the rising diversity of work arrangements and aging workforce. These trends have 'implications' for labour markets. They include rising inequality, changing business models, job displacement, workers' skill depreciation and rising skill gaps. There are 'challenges' for policymakers from the implications. At the level of workers and human resource policies, these challenges mainly relate to workers' skills to keep people employable in the future. At the level of businesses and labour relations, the challenge is to provide decent work by creating high-quality jobs and safeguarding worker well-being and a healthy work-life balance. Finally, at the most aggregate level of markets and their institutions, the challenge is to build a more inclusive society by preventing economic and social polarisation in labour markets. The figure further shows 'policies' with specific innovative policy recommendations that result from these challenges2. Our policy recommendations are structured under three main categories: 'a skilled work-force'; 'new labour relations' and 'a new social contract'." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2018): Artificial intelligence, automation and work. (NBER working paper 24196), Cambrige, Mass., 41 S. DOI:10.3386/w24196

Abstract

"We summarize a framework for the study of the implications of automation and AI on the demand for labor, wages, and employment. Our task-based framework emphasizes the displacement effect that automation creates as machines and AI replace labor in tasks that it used to perform. This displacement effect tends to reduce the demand for labor and wages. But it is counteracted by a productivity effect, resulting from the cost savings generated by automation, which increase the demand for labor in non-automated tasks. The productivity effect is complemented by additional capital accumulation and the deepening of automation (improvements of existing machinery), both of which further increase the demand for labor. These countervailing effects are incomplete. Even when they are strong, automation in- creases output per worker more than wages and reduce the share of labor in national income. The more powerful countervailing force against automation is the creation of new labor-intensive tasks, which reinstates labor in new activities and tends to increase the labor share to counterbalance the impact of automation. Our framework also highlights the constraints and imperfections that slow down the adjustment of the economy and the labor market to automation and weaken the resulting productivity gains from this transformation: a mismatch between the skill requirements of new technologies, and the possibility that automation is being introduced at an excessive rate, possibly at the expense of other productivity-enhancing technologies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn (2018): Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit. Makroökonomische Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Löhne von morgen. Mannheim, VIII, 134 S.

Abstract

"In der öffentlichen Debatte werden vor dem Hintergrund von Studien zur Automatisierbarkeit von Berufen immer wieder Stimmen laut, dass Industrie 4.0 und Digitalisierung massive Jobverluste nach sich ziehen könnten. Der lange Weg von der Entwicklung neuer Technologien in die betriebliche Praxis wird dabei oftmals ebenso vernachlässigt, wie die vielfältigen makroökonomischen Anpassungsprozesse, die möglichen arbeitsplatzsparenden Effekten neuer Technologien entgegenwirken. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert das vorliegende Gutachten die Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung sowohl der Industrie als auch des Dienstleistungssektors auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt. Zu diesem Zweck haben wir zum einen eine mit den Sozialversicherungsdaten verknüpfte Betriebsbefragung durchgeführt, um den tatsächlichen und zukünftig geplanten Einsatz neuer Technologien am aktuellen Rand zu erheben. Zum anderen haben wir ein strukturelles Modell entwickelt, mit dem wir die Auswirkungen der tatsächlichen und zukünftig geplanten technologischen Investitionen auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt für die jüngere Vergangenheit abschätzen und für die nähere Zukunft simulieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Aubert-Tarby, Clémence, Octavio R. Escobar & Thierry Rayna (2018): The impact of technological change on employment. The case of press digitisation. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Jg. 128, H. March, S. 36-45. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.015

Abstract

"Based on an exhaustive dataset of all journalists in France, this article investigates the impact of digitisation on the employment of journalists in the press industry. In particular, focus is put on the effect played by the level of digitisation of newspapers and magazines, some of which have resisted digitisation, while others have embraced it. We find that greater levels of digitisation tend to increase the likelihood of job creation and reduce the probability of job destruction. Likewise, higher level of digitisation leads, on average, to higher earnings for journalists. At the same time, though, higher digitisation also increases sharply the likelihood that jobs created are of casual contractual natures, as opposed to regular permanent contracts. Yet, we find that digitisation also has a positive impact on the earnings of journalists on a casual contact (though, far less than for 'tenured' journalists). More surprisingly, we show that digitisation also reduces job instability of those journalists on a casual contract, as a greater level of digitisation reduces the likelihood of job destruction, even for casual jobs. Though, while digitisation tends to change the contractual nature of job created, embracing digitisation appears to be a 'lesser evil' than resisting technological change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Aum, Sangmin, Sang Yoon Tim Lee & Yongseok Shin (2018): Computerizing industries and routinizing jobs. Explaining trends in aggregate productivity. (NBER working paper 24537), Cambrige, Mass., 36 S. DOI:10.3386/w24357

Abstract

"Aggregate productivity growth in the U.S. has slowed down since the 2000s. We quantify the importance of differential productivity growth across occupations and across industries, and the rise of computers since the 1980s, for the productivity slowdown. Complementarity across occupations and industries in production shrinks the relative size of those with high productivity growth, reducing their contributions toward aggregate productivity growth, resulting in its slowdown. We find that such a force, especially the shrinkage of occupations with above-average productivity growth through 'routinization,' was present since the 1980s. Through the end of the 1990s, this force was countervailed by the extraordinarily high productivity growth in the computer industry, of which output became an increasingly more important input in all industries ('computerization'). It was only when the computer industry's productivity growth slowed down in the 2000s that the negative effect of routinization on aggregate productivity became apparent. We also show that the decline in the labor income share can be attributed to computerization, which substitutes labor across all industries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Autor, David & Anna Salomons (2018): Is automation labor share-displacing? Productivity growth, employment, and the labor share. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity H. Spring, S. 1-87.

Abstract

"Is automation a labor-displacing force? This possibility is both an age-old concern and at the heart of a new theoretical literature considering how labor immiseration may result from a wave of 'brilliant machines,' which is in part motivated by declining labor shares in many developed countries. Comprehensive evidence on this labor-displacing channel is at present limited. Using the recent model of Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018b) as an analytical frame, we first outline the various channels through which automation impacts labor┐s share of output. We then turn to empirically estimating the employment and labor share impacts of productivity growth - an omnibus measure of technological change - using data on 28 industries for 18 OECD countries since 1970. Our main findings are that although automation - whether measured by Total Factor Productivity growth or instrumented by foreign patent flows or robot adoption - has not been employment-displacing, it has reduced labor's share in value-added. We disentangle the channels through which these impacts occur, including: own-industry effects, cross-industry input-output linkages, and final demand effects accruing through the contribution of each industry's productivity growth to aggregate incomes. Our estimates indicate that the labor share-displacing effects of productivity growth, which were essentially absent in the 1970s, have become more pronounced over time, and are most substantial in the 2000s. This finding is consistent with automation having become in recent decades less labor-augmenting and more labor-displacing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))