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Hüther, Michael, Matthias Diermeier & Henry Goecke (2021): Erschöpft durch die Pandemie. Was bleibt von der Globalisierung? Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, 295 S.

Abstract

"Die Erschöpfung der Globalisierung hat sich in den vergangenen Jahren immer weiter verstärkt. Der Covid-19-Schock erreichte die Welt auf dem bisherigen Höhepunkt des Systemkonflikts zwischen chinesischem Staatskapitalismus und dem zunehmend gespaltenen transatlantischen Westen. Die Europäische Union wirkt in ihrer Reaktion darauf überwiegend träge. Handlungsfähig zeigen sich in Europa hingegen die nationalstaatlichen Hierarchien. Dieses Buch verbindet den zeitlichen Kontext mit der Wirkungsperspektive. Damit drängt sich die Frage auf: Was bleibt von der Globalisierung, nachdem sie erschöpft durch die Pandemie ging? Die Antwort liegt nicht in einer isolierten ökonomischen Analyse der Pandemie, sondern in der Einordnung von Strukturen und Bedingungen der Globalisierung. Damit werden neue Optionen erkundet, Probleme und Defizite benannt sowie Möglichkeiten künftiger Kooperationen skizziert. Die Globalisierung hat damit die Chance, sich in der Resilienz einer offenen, freiheitlichen Welt mit ihren Ordnungsschwächen und Orientierungsverlusten neu zu begründen." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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Jaeger, David A., Jaime Arellano-Bover, Krzysztof Karbownik, Marta Martínez-Matute, John M. Nunley & R. Alan Seals (2021): The Global COVID-19 Student Survey: First Wave Results. (IZA discussion paper 14419), Bonn, 171 S.

Abstract

"University students have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We present results from the first wave of the Global COVID-19 Student Survey, which was administered at 28 universities in the United States, Spain, Australia, Sweden, Austria, Italy, and Mexico between April and October 2020. The survey addresses contemporaneous outcomes and future expectations regarding three fundamental aspects of students' lives in the pandemic: the labor market, education, and health. We document the differential responses of students as a function of their country of residence, parental income, gender, and for the US their race." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kitov, Ivan (2021): The link between unemployment and real economic growth in developed countries. (MPRA paper / University Library of Munich 105873), München, 39 S.

Abstract

"Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun's law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and unemployment rate between 2010 and 2019. The initial results show that the change in unemployment rate can be accurately predicted by variations in the rate of real economic growth. There is a discrete version of the model which is represented by a piecewise linear dependence of the annual increment in unemployment rate on the annual rate of change in real GDP per capita. The lengths of the country-dependent time segments are defined by breaks in the GDP measurement units associated with definitional revisions to the nominal GDP and GDP deflator (dGDP). The difference between the CPI and dGDP indices since the beginning of measurements reveals the years of such breaks. Statistically, the link between the studied variables in the revised models is characterized by the coefficient of determination in the range from R2=0.866 (Australia) to R2=0.977 (France). The residual errors can be likely associated with the measurement errors, e.g. the estimates of real GDP per capita from various sources differ by tens of percent. The obtained results confirm the original finding on the absence of structural unemployment in the studied developed countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kleifgen, Eva, Duncan Roth & Ignat Stepanok (2021): Exportbetriebe und die Folgen der Covid-19-Pandemie: Kriseneffekte unterscheiden sich nach Zielländern der Exporte. (IAB-Kurzbericht 10/2021), Nürnberg, 8 S.

Abstract

"In Deutschland hängt mehr als ein Viertel aller Arbeitsplätze vom Export ab und die Covid-19-Pandemie hat im Jahr 2020 zu einem beträchtlichen Rückgang des Exportvolumens geführt. Dennoch sind Exportbetriebe nach eigener Einschätzung im Durchschnitt nicht stärker von der Pandemie betroffen als nicht exportierende Betriebe. Allerdings gibt es in der Gruppe der Exporteure Unterschiede je nach Zielland ihrer Ausfuhren. Das zeigt eine aktuelle Betriebsbefragung des IAB zu den wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf exportierende Betriebe." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Konle-Seidl, Regina (2021): Is this crisis different? The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the economic and social situation of young people in Europe (Series "Tracking youth joblessness during the Covid-19 crisis"). In: IAB-Forum H. 22.12.2021, o. Sz., 2021-12-21.

Abstract

"Wirtschaftliche Einbrüche haben für junge Menschen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt allgemein schwerwiegendere Folgen als für andere Altersgruppen. Wie wirkt sich die Covid-19-Krise diesbezüglich im Vergleich mit der globalen Finanzkrise vor einem Jahrzehnt aus? Ein genauer Blick auch auf andere europäische Länder liefert hier interessante Einblicke." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kpodar, Kangni R., Montfort Mlachila, Saad N. Quayyum & Vigninou Gammadigbe (2021): Defying the Odds: Remittances During the COVID-19 Pandemic. (IMF working paper 2021,186), Washington, DC, 35 S.

Abstract

"This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries with bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in remittance flows, notwithstanding an unprecedent global recession triggered by the pandemic. Using the local projection approach to estimate the impulse response functions of remittance flows during Jan 2020-Dec 2020, the paper provides evidence that: (i) remittances responded positively to COVID-19 infection rates in migrant home countries, underscoring its role as an important automatic stabilizer; (ii) stricter containment measures have the unintended consequence of dampening remittances; and (iii) a shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions appears to have also played a role in the surge in formal remittances. Lastly, the size of the fiscal stimulus in host countries is positively associated with remittances as the fiscal response cushions the economic impact of the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Larsen, Christa, Jenny Kipper, Alfons Schmid & Ciprian Panzaru (Hrsg.) (2021): Transformations of Regional and Local Labour Markets Across Europe in Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Times. Challenges for Regional and Local Observatories. (Forschung und deren Anwendung im Bereich des regionalen und lokalen Arbeitsmarktmonitorings im transnationalen Vergleich (Veröffentlichungen des IWAK)), Baden-Baden: Nomos, 415 S. DOI:10.5771/9783957104007

Abstract

"The European Network on Regional Labour Market Monitoring publishes annual anthologies to gather perspectives from all over Europe and beyond on current topics related to regional and local labour markets. In the anthology of 2021, over 30 network members from ten countries reflect on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and state interventions or other measures in different localities and circumstances. They provide analyses on a variety of framework conditions of regional and local labour markets and their influence on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the authors shed light on state interventions and other measures from a comparative perspective. Discussions on the acceleration of social inequality, digitalisation and structural changes during the COVID-19 pandemic complement their multifaceted approaches. Overall, the authors provide information on data, as well as methodological and conceptual approaches that can be applied in regional and local labour market observatories to help regions and localities in their processes of digital, social and sustainable transition." (Publisher information, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Livanos, Ilias & Panagiotis Ravanos (2021): Job loss and COVID-19. Do remote work, automation and tasks at work matter? (CEDEFOP working paper series 2021,4), Thessaloniki, 41 S. DOI:10.2801/00455

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have adverse and non-uniform impacts on future employment prospects for different job positions in the EU. We investigate two possible determinants of the variation of future employment loss due to the pandemic: the potential of a job to be carried out ‘from home’ and the risk of being substituted by automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Major, Lee Elliot, Andrew Eyles & Stephen Machin (2021): Unequal learning and labour market losses in the crisis: consequences for social mobility. (CEP discussion paper 1748), London, 33 S.

Abstract

"The unequal learning and labour market losses arising in the UK due to the Covid-19 pandemic are used to assess the consequences for social mobility. Labour market and learning losses have been more pronounced for people from poorer families and this is incorporated into a generalisation of the standard, canonical social mobility model. A calibration shows a significantly higher intergenerational elasticity - reflecting lower social mobility - because of the uneven nature of losses by family income, and from dynamic scarring. Results from a randomised information experiment incorporated in a bespoke Social Mobility Survey corroborate this, as participants become more sceptical about the social mobility prospects of the Covid generation when given information about the losses that have occurred in the crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Meinen, Philipp, Roberta Serafini & Ottavia Papagalli (2021): Regional economic impact of Covid-19: the role of sectoral structure and trade linkages. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 2528), Frankfurt am Main, 22 S.

Abstract

"The paper provides an ex-post analysis of the determinants of within-country regional heterogeneity of the labour market impact of COVID-19. By focussing on the first wave of the pandemic in the four largest euro area economies, it finds that the propagation of the economic impact across regions cannot be explained by the spread of infections only. Instead, a region's economic structure is a significant driver of the observed heterogeneity. Moreover, our results suggest that a region's trade relations, both within and across countries, represent a relevant indirect channel through which COVID-19 related disruptions affect regional economic activity. In this regard, the analysis depicts vulnerabilities arising from potential disruptions of the highly integrated EU supply chains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Niehues, Judith & Maximilian Stockhausen (2021): Inequality revisited: An international comparison with a special focus on the case of Germany. (IW-Report / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2021,18), Köln, 50 S.

Abstract

"While global extreme poverty and global income inequality have decreased over the last decades before the Corona pandemic, inequality within many industrialized countries has increased. In Germany, net income inequality has increased after the German reunification, but since 2005 there has merely been no change in the distribution of net incomes. A similar picture can be drawn for the development of net wealth, which is generally more unequally distributed than net income. Since the end of the financial crisis, the level of net wealth inequality hast remained almost unchanged. In the last decade, both income and wealth have remarkably increased on average across all income and wealth groups. This development was accompanied by a rising share of labour income reaching levels of the 1990s again. Unfortunately, the Corona pandemic has put a temporary end to the positive income development, and it is not clear so far, what the long-run consequences of the Corona pandemic will be. In the short-run, it is especially a threat to the very poor in developing countries and it is a large challenge in the fight against global extreme poverty." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Nieuwenhuis, Rense & Mara A. Yerkes (2021): Workers' well-being in the context of the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. In: Community, work & family, Jg. 24, H. 2, S. 226-235. DOI:10.1080/13668803.2021.1880049

Abstract

"In this Voices article, we use emerging evidence to reflect on the consequences of Covid-19 for various aspects of workers' wellbeing. This brief review emphasises how COVID-19 exacerbates existing, well-understood inequalities, along the intersections of community, work, and family. Workers on the periphery of the labour market, including non-standard workers and the self-employed, but also women and low-paid workers, are experiencing significant losses in relation to work, working hours and/or wages. Even once the pandemic is contained, its impact will continue to be felt by many communities, workers, and families for months and years to come." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Osuna, Victoria & José Ignacio García-Pérez (2021): Temporary layoffs, short-time work and COVID-19: the case of a dual labour market. (Working papers series / Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics 2021.11), Sevilla, 23 S.

Abstract

"This paper examines the type of short-time work schemes implemented in Spain to preserve jobs and worker's incomes during the COVID-19 crisis. These policies have typically involved some degree of subsidization of payroll taxes for firms and also subsidies to workers. For this purpose, we simulate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 on labor market outcomes. The steady-state results show that the availability of short-time work schemes and temporary layoffs does not necessarily prevent a large increase in unemployment and job destruction. The effects of these measures depend on the degree of subsidization of payroll taxes and on the design of the policy. The heavily subsidized short-time work schemes provide incentives to preserve workers on payroll working very few hours that would not have been employed in the benchmark situation, generating deadweight costs and inefficiencies. The transition exercise shows that a scenario with a moderate degree of subsidization of payroll taxes, and where the subsidy is independent of the reduction in hours worked, is the least harmful for both welfare and fiscal deficit. However, this is not the scenario that maximizes the number of jobs preserved. A more generous short-time work scheme, similar to the one implemented in the first year of the pandemic, accomplishes that goal instead. The drawbacks, though, are fiscal sustainability and deadweight costs. The winners and losers exercise shows that more than 50% of the workers are hit negatively in terms of average income and very few workers are better off after this shock: less than 3% in the scenarios which heavily subsidizes short-time work as a result of this generous work sharing strategy. The category that experiences the strongest distributional changes is the one composed of unemployed workers. In the heavily subsidized short-time work scenarios they are the ones who improve more in terms of the proportion of workers affected and also in terms of the average increase" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Palomino, Juan C., Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian (2021): The COVID-19 shock on the labour market: Poverty and inequality effects across Spanish regions. (Documentos de trabajo / ICAE 2103), Madrid, 24 S.

Abstract

"We evaluate the distributional consequences of social distancing for the case of Spanish regions. Under 2 months of lockdown plus 10 months of partial functioning our study consistently finds potential wage losses that are sizeable and uneven across the wage distribution all around Spain, but with different intensity depending on the region's productive structure. The increase of the headcount poverty index oscillates between 8.2 (Navarre) and 19.2 (the Balearic Islands) percentage points, while the Gini coefficient rises between 2.3 (Navarre) and 5.3 (the Balearic Islands) Gini points. We also find that inequality between regions increases, eroding regional cohesion in Spain." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Paterson-Young, Claire (2021): Covid-19: emerging needs for unemployed and economically inactive individuals. In: Community, work & family, Jg. 24, H. 5, S. 507-511. DOI:10.1080/13668803.2021.1931032

Abstract

"This Voices article presents emerging findings from research investigating the consequences of Covid-19 on individuals engaged on employability programmes in the United Kingdom. It outlines the challenges presented by ‘lockdown’ restrictions, as introduced to reduce the spread of Covid-19, on the delivery of employability programmes. Individuals engaged on such programmes experience a wealth of needs that have been compounded by Covid-19, resulting in new, emerging needs relating to personal wellbeing, social isolation, and confidence. Without effective and innovative support, individuals experiencing unemployment and economic inactivity will undoubtedly experience increased inequality; this inequality impacts on family, with individuals experiencing isolation from such, which in turn reduces wellbeing and stimuli, and indeed work, with Covid-19 compounding challenges in securing employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pigeron-Piroth, Isabelle, Ines Funk, Birte Nienaber, H. Peter Dörrenbächer & Rachid Belkacem (2021): Der grenzüberschreitende Arbeitsmarkt der Großregion. Der Einfluss der Covid-19-Pandemie. In: Informationen zur Raumentwicklung, Jg. 48, H. 2, S. 74-85.

Abstract

"Während der erste Welle der Pandemie im Frühjahr 2020 wurde die grenzüberschreitende Mobilität in der Großregion (Saarland, Lothringen, Luxemburg, Rheinland-Pfalz, Wallonien) massiv beschränkt. Seit Beginn der zweiten Welle der Pandemie im Herbst 2020 stehen die Grenzen erneut im Fokus der öffentlichen Debatte." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Profeta, Paola, Ximena Caló & Roberto Occhiuzzi (2021): COVID-19 and its economic impact on women and women's poverty. Insights from 5 European Countries : study, requested by the FEMM committe. Brüssel, 58 S. DOI:10.2861/895019

Abstract

"This in-depth, case-analytical overview, commissioned by the European Parliament’s Policy Department for Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the FEMM Committee, examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on a representative sample of member states with the aim of alimenting policy recommendations for the COVID-19 recovery period to ensure that the gains of the past years in the matter of gender equality are not overridden by the short-term negative effects of the measures implemented to combat the COVID-19 sanitary crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Riehm, Kira E., Calliope Holingue, Emily J. Smail, Arie Kapteyn, Daniel Bennett, Johannes Thrul, Frauke Kreuter, Emma E. McGinty, Luther G. Kalb, Cindy B. Veldhuis, Renee M. Johnson, M. Daniele Fallin & Elizabeth A. Stuart (2021): Trajectories of Mental Distress Among US Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic. In: Annals of behavioral medicine, Jg. 55, H. 2, S. 93-102., 2020-12-22. DOI:10.1093/abm/kaaa126

Abstract

"Cross-sectional studies have found that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has negatively affected population-level mental health. Longitudinal studies are necessary to examine trajectories of change in mental health over time and identify sociodemographic groups at risk for persistent distress. To examine the trajectories of mental distress between March 10 and August 4, 2020, a key period during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants included 6,901 adults from the nationally representative Understanding America Study, surveyed at baseline between March 10 and 31, 2020, with nine follow-up assessments between April 1 and August 4, 2020. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to examine the association between date and self-reported mental distress (measured with the four-item Patient Health Questionnaire) among U.S. adults overall and among sociodemographic subgroups defined by sex, age, race/ethnicity, household structure, federal poverty line, and census region. Compared to March 11, the odds of mental distress among U.S. adults overall were 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.65–2.07) times higher on April 1 and 1.92 (95% CI = 1.62–2.28) times higher on May 1; by August 1, the odds of mental distress had returned to levels comparable to March 11 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.66–0.96). Females experienced a sharper increase in mental distress between March and May compared to males (females: OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.85–2.82; males: OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.15–2.02). These findings highlight the trajectory of mental health symptoms during an unprecedented pandemic, including the identification of populations at risk for sustained mental distress." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schiemann, Scott & Atsushi Narisada (2021): A less objectionable greed? Work-life conflict and unjust pay during a pandemic. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 71. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100564

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Sedik, Tahsin Saadi & Jiae Yoo (2021): Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back? (IMF working paper 2021,11), Washington, DC, 26 S.

Abstract

"COVID-19 has exacerbated concerns about the rise of the robots and other automation technologies. This paper analyzes empirically the impact of past major pandemics on robot adoption and inequality. First, we find that pandemic events accelerate robot adoption, especially when the health impact is severe and is associated with a significant economic downturn. Second, while robots may raise productivity, they could also increase inequality by displacing low-skilled workers. We find that following a pandemic, the increase in inequality over the medium term is larger for economies with higher robot density and where new robot adoption has increased more. Our results suggest that the concerns about the rise of the robots amid the COVID-19 pandemic seem justified." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))