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Djankov, Simeon, Eva Yiwen Zhang, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Marie Hyland (2021): The evolving gender gap in labor force participation during COVID-19. (Policy Brief / Peterson Institute for International Economics 2021,8), Washington, DC, 19 S.

Abstract

"Despite many significant gains by women in the paid workforce in recent decades, the percentage of women participating in the labor force has remained lower than the percentage of male participants. Now, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic downturn it precipitated, the gap in labor force participation between men and women in some economies has actually widened, with potentially damaging repercussions for women’s career prospects and pay. The pandemic has disproportionately affected sectors employing more women, such as retail stores, restaurants, and the hotel and hospitality business. An increase in family caregiving responsibilities because of school and childcare closures has also fallen on working mothers' shoulders. Both factors have pulled women out of the labor force. The authors track trends in male and female labor force participation in 43 countries and find substantial differences across countries in the way women’s participation has been affected relative to that of men. In some countries, such as Colombia, Chile, and Cyprus, the gender gap in labor force participation widened the most during the pandemic. The gender gap also widened in the United States, driving 2.5 million women from their jobs in what Vice President Kamala Harris called a “national emergency” for women. In other economies, such as Luxembourg and Lithuania, the gender gap in labor force participation, unexpectedly, shrank during the early period of the pandemic. On average, female employees have fared better in countries where women are less concentrated in the services sector, less likely to be employed as temporary workers, and where laws supported greater equality at the onset of the crisis. Greater government expenditure on childcare in the pre-COVID-19 era, however, does not appear to have insulated female workers from the damaging repercussions of the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Doerr, S., M. Erdem, G. Franco, L. Gambacorta & A. Illes (2021): Technological capacity and firms' recovery from Covid-19. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 209. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110102

Abstract

"Can higher technological capacity help firms to recover quicker from recessions? Analysing the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on firm revenues in several countries, we find that firms headquartered in jurisdictions with better digital infrastructure generated relatively higher revenue during the shock period. Improving a country's technological capability by one standard deviation is associated with a relative increase in revenues of the average firm by around 4%. The positive effect of technology is more pronounced among smaller firms, suggesting that it could have helped the recovery of SMEs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))

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Doorley, Karina, Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa Maria Sologon (2021): The Gender Gap in Income and the COVID-19 Pandemic. (IZA discussion paper 14360), Bonn, 32 S.

Abstract

"The gender income gap is large and well documented for many countries. Recent research shows that it is mainly driven by differences in working patterns between men and women, but also by wage differences. The tax-benefit system cushions the gender income gap by redistributing between men and women. The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented levels of unemployment in 2020 in many countries, with some suggestion that men and women have been differently affected. This research investigates the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the gender gap in income in Ireland. Using nowcasting techniques and microsimulation, we model the effect of pandemic induced employment and wage changes on market and disposable income. We show how the pandemic and the associated tax-benefit support can be expected to change the income gap between men and women. Policy conclusions are drawn about future redistribution between men and women." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Drahokoupil, Jan & Torsten Müller (2021): Job retention schemes in Europe. A lifeline during the Covid-19 pandemic. (Working paper / European Trade Union Institute 2021.07), Brussels, 61 S.

Abstract

"This paper analyses the job retention schemes implemented in response to the Covid-19 crisis, showing quantitative trends and differences in terms of expenditure on the schemes and the number of workers involved. The key focus is on a qualitative analysis of the schemes’ key properties. In order to understand the diversity of job retention schemes implemented in the Covid-19 crisis, we first develop a typology, distinguishing between three underlying types: short-time work schemes, furlough schemes, and wage subsidies. We then provide a comparative overview of the different schemes implemented in the context of the crisis, considering their design as well as their size in terms of expenditure, and map adjustments made to them in the course of the crisis. The third section analyses the evolution of the take-up of the schemes in the course of 2020. The remaining sections discuss in detail such key properties as: eligibility criteria, the level of support for employees and employers, the role of collective bargaining and worker participation, dismissal protection, measures to avoid misuse, and training provisions. The paper concludes by drawing lessons from experiences with the Covid-19 pandemic in light of the discussion on whether and how permanent schemes should be established. It argues that the main issue is to find a design that balances the interests of all stakeholders. This would require meaningful financial participation on the part of employers, effective integration of the schemes into active labour market policies, and provisions to avoid misuse, including the effective involvement of worker participation and collective bargaining structures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Emmerling, Johannes, Davide Furceri, Francisco Líbano Monteiro, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, Pietro Pizzuto & Massimo Tavoni (2021): Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics. (IMF working paper 2021,119), Washington, DC, 38 S.

Abstract

"COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ferdosi, Mohammad (2021): Canada’s unemployment insurance in crisis. In: International Journal of Social Welfare, Jg. 30, H. 2, S. 182-192. DOI:10.1111/ijsw.12448

Abstract

"The past several decades in Canada have been marked by systematic attempts to restructure the federally regulated unemployment insurance system, despite growing unemployment and the need for labour market relief. Several program changes, including tightening eligibility requirements, lowering benefits, increasing administrative burdens, limiting enrolment duration and intensifying surveillance have significantly impacted the level and quality of support available to some of the most vulnerable sections of the population. Although Canada weathered the 2008 crisis relatively well, it undertook similar cuts as some of the worst hit European Union members. In line with OECD recommendations, Canadian measures have been rationalised as a means of strengthening work incentives, stimulating growth and reducing deficits. The effect of the coronavirus has been to challenge these longstanding assumptions and policies, pointing to the need for expanded state efforts to cushion social and economic risks in the face of clear evidence of market failure." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Fiaschi, Davide & Cristina Tealdi (2021): Young People between Education and the Labour Market during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy. (IZA discussion paper 14479), Bonn, 16 S.

Abstract

"We analyse the distribution and the flows between different types of employment (self-employment, temporary, and permanent), unemployment, education, and other types of inactivity, with particular focus on the duration of the school-to-work transition (STWT). The aim is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy on the careers of individuals aged 15-34. We find that the pandemic worsened an already concerning situation of higher unemployment and inactivity rates and significantly longer STWT duration compared to other EU countries, particularly for females and residents in the South of Italy. In the midst of the pandemic, individuals aged 20-29 were less in (permanent and temporary) employment and more in the NLFET (Neither in the Labour Force nor in Education or Training) state, particularly females and non Italian citizens. We also provide evidence of an increased propensity to return to schooling, but most importantly of a substantial prolongation of the STWT duration towards permanent employment, mostly for males and non Italian citizens. Our contribution lies in providing a rigorous estimation and analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the carriers of young individuals in Italy, which has not yet been explored in the literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Finamor, Lucas & Dana Scott (2021): Labor market trends and unemployment insurance generosity during the pandemic. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 199. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109722

Abstract

"We test whether changes in unemployment insurance (UI) benefit generosity under the CARES Act in the US are associated with differential employment outcomes under the distinct conditions of the pandemic. While we observe a negative association between UI generosity and employment, we show that the relative employment gap arises before the Act was instituted, decreases in magnitude when the augmented benefits were in place, and does not change when the benefits expansion expires." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))

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Fischer, Georg & Michael Landesmann (2021): The Covid Crisis: Occupational Impacts in EU Economies and Policy Suggestions. (WIIW policy notes and reports 53), Wien, 36 S.

Abstract

"This policy note examines sectoral and occupational employment impacts of the Covid-19 crisis. The crisis hit EU economies (and advanced economies in general) as they were already undergoing important structural changes due to technological change (digitisation), a factor affecting most organisations now and in the future. Some of these changes accelerated during the pandemic, along with at times dramatic changes in sectoral demand patterns (due to lock-downs) and shifts in work organisation, all of which had strongly differential impacts on various occupational groups. The policy note studies in-depth occupational employment patterns before and during the pandemic using detailed Labour Force Statistics, including analysis of the differentiated impacts on women and men. The major policy challenge is to avoid lasting gaps in overall employment as economies recover and as temporary support schemes are phased out. Further, policy makers need to focus attention on how to accompany the continuing changes in structural employment patterns. These changes can have significant and lasting impacts on the employment prospects of different segments of the labour force (in terms of age, gender and educational/skill levels). The policy note postulates a number of policy actions which should be embarked upon, both at the national and EU level." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fuest, Clemens, Jürgen Matthes, Peter Buerstedde, Henrik Uterwedde, Marc Lehnfeld, Hubert Fromlet, Torsten Graap, Peter Sparding & Markus Taube (2021): Restart nach Corona: Krisenpakete im Vergleich. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 74, H. 12, S. 3-30.

Abstract

"In den kurzen Atempausen zwischen den Wellen der Corona-Pandemie nutzen viele Regierungen die Zeit, um Strategien für die wirtschaftliche Erholung und den Restart nach Corona zu entwickeln. Dazu gehören die Gewährleistung eines reibungslosen Strukturwandels, die digitale Transformation sowie die Bekämpfung des Klimawandels. Gefragt sind Finanzierungskonzepte, die die Staatsverschuldung in Grenzen halten und den Sozialstaat nicht über Gebühr belasten. Wie kann ein Restart nach Corona unter diesen Bedingungen gelingen? Welche Lösungen haben andere Länder gefunden, und welche Lehren lassen sich hieraus ziehen?" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Furceri, Davide, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto (2021): The Rise in Inequality after Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role? (IMF working paper 2021,120), Washington, DC, 27 S.

Abstract

"Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2020). In this paper, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government's fiscal balance, health expenditures or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers (IMF 2020; Stiglitz 2020; Sandbu 2020b) that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gonzalez-Pampillon, Nicolas, Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim & Katharina Ziegler (2021): Recovering from the first Covid-19 lockdown: Economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help out scheme. (Covid-19 analysis series / Centre for Economic Performance 018), London, 27 S.

Abstract

"The hospitality sector was particularly hard-hit by restrictions introduced to stop the spread of COVID-19. The Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) scheme – implemented in August 2020 after the 1st national lockdown had ended – aimed to boost demand and protect jobs in the food service sector. Participating businesses in EOTHO offered a 50% discount from Monday to Wednesday, up to £10 per person, on food and non-alcoholic drinks consumed on the premises. To capture some of the effects from the policy, we look at footfall using daily mobility data from Google and employment using daily data on job posts from Indeed UK. Our empirical strategy relies on the observed spatial variation in uptake of the scheme. We exploited this variation comparing locations with different take-up before and after the introduction of the policy. The results indicate that EOTHO induced higher footfall (by 5%-6%) associated with recreational activities, concentrated on specific days when the discount was available (Mondays to Wednesdays in August). However, the programme failed to encourage people to go out for other purposes and to eat out after the discount ended. EOTHO also increased recruitment in the food preparation & service sector. We observe an increase in the number of jobs posts (by 7%-14%) on the Indeed website. We do not find evidence of an increase in the number of job posts in other industries, suggesting the effect on recruitment was concentrated on food establishments. As this indicator measures the flow of job adverts, a transitory effect on job posts could stillimply a permanent increase in the number of employees. Over 160 million meals were claimed by the end of September 2020, with government spending £849 million on the policy. Data limitations as well as the interaction between different policies complicate any cost-benefit calculation of the programme. On top of that, there is evidence indicating the increase in footfall due to EOTHO had an adverse effect on new COVID-19 cases. Thus, any economic gains from the scheme may have come at the cost of more infections. Further research – using administrative data – is needed to assess the overall cost-effectiveness of EOTHO." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Grimme, Christian (2021): Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die globalen Leistungsbilanzsalden. In: ifo Schnelldienst digital, Jg. 2, H. 2, S. 1-4.

Abstract

"Der Ausbruch der Corona-Pandemie hat die globale Konjunktur und den internationalen Handel stark beeinträchtigt. Die wirtschaftliche Aktivität brach im ersten Halbjahr 2020 drastisch ein und erholte sich kräftig im zweiten Halbjahr. Ein ähnliches Muster zeigt sich beim grenzüberschreitenden Warenverkehr. Der folgende Beitrag gibt einen kurzen Überblick über die Entwicklung der Leistungsbilanzsalden in Deutschland und im Rest der Welt im abgelaufenen Jahr. Leistungsbilanzsalden beinhalten dabei alle Transaktionen zwischen dem Inland und dem Ausland, die nicht im Zusammenhang mit dem grenzüberschreitenden Kapitalverkehr stehen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Gros, Daniel & Alexandre Ounnas (2021): Labour market responses to the Covid-19 crisis in the United States and Europe. (CEPS working document 2021,01), Brüssel, 16 S.

Abstract

"Labour markets have reacted very differently to the Covid-19 crisis. In the US, the impact on unemployment rates was rapid across all states. They increased sharply in March and April 2020 and recovered steadily thereafter. In Europe, by contrast, unemployment increased far less, and the adjustment was more gradual. This difference in unemployment responsiveness is most likely a consequence of the widespread use of short-term work schemes in Europe, given that the transatlantic differences in hours worked overall are much smaller than for unemployment. Using data from US states and EU member states, an econometric analysis of the impact of the restrictions (lockdowns) implemented by governments to contain the spread of the virus reveals that in the case of the US, unemployment appears to have been driven mostly by the aggregate shock generated by the pandemic as it played out between March and November 2020. In the EU, unemployment showed little variation. The Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) used in different US states and EU countries, as can be demonstrated through a regression analysis, did not always have significant effects on unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Haupt, Marlene & Viola Lind (2021): Gleichstellung in der Krise – Eine vergleichende Analyse der Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter in Deutschland und Schweden. In: Sozialer Fortschritt, Jg. 70, H. 5/6, S. 267-291. DOI:10.3790/sfo.70.5-6.267

Abstract

"In Deutschland sind Frauen pandemiebedingt stärker von Kurzarbeit und Arbeitslosigkeit sowie von Problemen der Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf betroffen als Männer. Gleichzeitig arbeiten sie aufgrund der geschlechtersegregierten Arbeitswelt häufiger in schlechter bezahlten systemrelevanten Berufen. Staatliche Hilfs- und Unterstützungsangebote zur Krisenbewältigung umfassen primär finanzielle Leistungen und Beratungsmöglichkeiten. In entscheidenden wissenschaftlichen und politischen Beratergremien sind Frauen unterrepräsentiert. Der Vergleich mit Schweden verdeutlicht, dass dort die Geschlechtergleichstellung in Normalzeiten stark institutionell verankert wurde. Gender Mainstreaming, Gender Budgeting und Gender Monitoring sind daher auch in Krisenzeiten fester Bestandteil der Strategien. Das schwedische Beispiel zeigt wichtige alternative Herangehensweisen und Denkanstöße für die Debatte um eine geschlechtergerechte Krisenpolitik in Deutschland." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Hershbein, Brad J. & Harry J. Holzer (2021): The COVID-19 Pandemic's Evolving Impacts on the Labor Market: Who's Been Hurt and What We Should Do. (Upjohn Institute working paper 341), Kalamazoo, Mich., 47 S. DOI:10.17848/wp21-341

Abstract

"In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy restrictions, we consider a range of employment outcomes—including permanent layoffs, which generate large and lasting costs—and how these outcomes vary across demographic groups, occupations, and industries over time. We also examine how these employment patterns vary across different states, according to the timing and severity of virus caseloads, deaths, and closure measures. We find that the labor market recovery of the summer and early fall stagnated in late fall and early winter. As noted by others, we find low-wage and minority workers are hardest hit initially, but that recoveries have varied, and not always consistently, between Blacks and Hispanics. Statewide business closures and other restrictions on economic activity reduce employment rates concurrently but do not seem to have lingering effects once relaxed. In contrast, virus deaths—but not caseloads—not only depress current employment but produce accumulating harm. We conclude with policy options for states to repair their labor markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hossain, Mobarak (2021): Gender differences in experiencing Coronavirus-triggered economic hardship. Evidence from four developing countries. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 71, S. 1-5. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100555

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Hüther, Michael, Matthias Diermeier & Henry Goecke (2021): Erschöpft durch die Pandemie. Was bleibt von der Globalisierung? Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, 295 S.

Abstract

"Die Erschöpfung der Globalisierung hat sich in den vergangenen Jahren immer weiter verstärkt. Der Covid-19-Schock erreichte die Welt auf dem bisherigen Höhepunkt des Systemkonflikts zwischen chinesischem Staatskapitalismus und dem zunehmend gespaltenen transatlantischen Westen. Die Europäische Union wirkt in ihrer Reaktion darauf überwiegend träge. Handlungsfähig zeigen sich in Europa hingegen die nationalstaatlichen Hierarchien. Dieses Buch verbindet den zeitlichen Kontext mit der Wirkungsperspektive. Damit drängt sich die Frage auf: Was bleibt von der Globalisierung, nachdem sie erschöpft durch die Pandemie ging? Die Antwort liegt nicht in einer isolierten ökonomischen Analyse der Pandemie, sondern in der Einordnung von Strukturen und Bedingungen der Globalisierung. Damit werden neue Optionen erkundet, Probleme und Defizite benannt sowie Möglichkeiten künftiger Kooperationen skizziert. Die Globalisierung hat damit die Chance, sich in der Resilienz einer offenen, freiheitlichen Welt mit ihren Ordnungsschwächen und Orientierungsverlusten neu zu begründen." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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Jaeger, David A., Jaime Arellano-Bover, Krzysztof Karbownik, Marta Martínez-Matute, John M. Nunley & R. Alan Seals (2021): The Global COVID-19 Student Survey: First Wave Results. (IZA discussion paper 14419), Bonn, 171 S.

Abstract

"University students have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We present results from the first wave of the Global COVID-19 Student Survey, which was administered at 28 universities in the United States, Spain, Australia, Sweden, Austria, Italy, and Mexico between April and October 2020. The survey addresses contemporaneous outcomes and future expectations regarding three fundamental aspects of students' lives in the pandemic: the labor market, education, and health. We document the differential responses of students as a function of their country of residence, parental income, gender, and for the US their race." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kitov, Ivan (2021): The link between unemployment and real economic growth in developed countries. (MPRA paper / University Library of Munich 105873), München, 39 S.

Abstract

"Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun's law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and unemployment rate between 2010 and 2019. The initial results show that the change in unemployment rate can be accurately predicted by variations in the rate of real economic growth. There is a discrete version of the model which is represented by a piecewise linear dependence of the annual increment in unemployment rate on the annual rate of change in real GDP per capita. The lengths of the country-dependent time segments are defined by breaks in the GDP measurement units associated with definitional revisions to the nominal GDP and GDP deflator (dGDP). The difference between the CPI and dGDP indices since the beginning of measurements reveals the years of such breaks. Statistically, the link between the studied variables in the revised models is characterized by the coefficient of determination in the range from R2=0.866 (Australia) to R2=0.977 (France). The residual errors can be likely associated with the measurement errors, e.g. the estimates of real GDP per capita from various sources differ by tens of percent. The obtained results confirm the original finding on the absence of structural unemployment in the studied developed countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))