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Bluedorn, John, Francesca Caselli, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Ippei Shibata & Marina M. Tavares (2021): Gender and employment in the COVID-19 recession: Cross-country evidence on “she-cessions”. In: Covid economics H. 76, S. 87-109.

Abstract

"Early evidence on the pandemic’s effects pointed to women’s employment falling disproportionately, leading observers to call a “she-cession.” This paper documents the extent and persistence of this phenomenon in a quarterly sample of 38 advanced and emerging market economies. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity across countries, with over half to two-thirds exhibiting larger declines in women’s than men’s employment rates. These gender differences in COVID-19’s effects are typically short-lived, lasting only a quarter or two on average. We also show that she-cessions are strongly related to COVID-19’s impacts on gender shares in employment within sectors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Born, Benjamin, Alexander M. Dietrich & Gernot J. Müller (2021): The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden. In: PLoS ONE, Jg. 16, H. 4. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0249732

Abstract

"While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3–4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brodeur, Abel, Suraiya Bhuyian, Anik Islam & David Gray (2021): A Literature Review of the Economics of COVID-19. (Working paper / Department of Economics, University of Ottawa 2103E), Ottawa, 63 S.

Abstract

"The goal of this piece is to survey the developing and rapidly growing literature on the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the governmental responses, and to synthetize the insights emerging from a very large number of studies. This survey: (i) provides an overview of the data sets and the techniques employed to measure social distancing and COVID-19 cases and deaths; (ii) reviews the literature on the determinants of compliance with and the effectiveness of social distancing; (iii) the macroeconomic and financial impacts, including the modelling of plausible mechanisms; (iv) summarizes the literature on the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19, focusing on those aspects related to labor, health, gender, discrimination, and the environment, and v) summarizes the literature on public policy responses." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Burkhauser, Richard V., Kevin Corinth & Douglas Holtz-Eakin (2021): Policies to Help the Working Class in the Aftermath of COVID-19: Lessons from the Great Recession. (IZA discussion paper 14166), Bonn, 16 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated government mandated shutdowns caused a historic shock to the U.S. economy and a disproportionate job loss concentrated among the working class. While an unprecedented social safety net policy response successfully offset earnings loses among lower-wage workers, the risk of continued and persistent unemployment remains higher among the working class. The key lesson from the Great Recession is that strong economic growth and a hot labor market do more to improve the economic wellbeing of the working class and historically disadvantaged groups than a slow recovery that relies on safety net policies to help replace lost earnings. Thus, the best way to prevent a "K-shaped" recovery is to ensure that safety net policies do not interfere with a return to the strong pre-pandemic economy once the health risk subsides, and that pro-growth policies that incentivize business investment and hiring are maintained." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chernoff, Alex & Casey Warman (2021): COVID-19 and Implications for Automation. (Staff working paper / Bank of Canada 2021,25), Ottawa, 29 S.

Abstract

"COVID-19 may accelerate the automation of jobs as employers invest in technology to safeguard against pandemics. We identify occupations that have high automation potential and also exhibit a high risk of viral infection. We examine regional variation in terms of which U.S. local labor markets are most at risk. Next, we outline the differential impacts COVID-19 may have on different demographic groups. We find that the highest-risk occupations in the U.S. are those held by females with mid- to low wage and education levels. Using comparable data for 25 other countries, we also find that women in this demographic are at the highest risk internationally. We examine monthly employment data from the U.S. and find that women in high-risk occupations experienced a larger initial decline in employment and a weaker recovery during the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clark, Andrew, Conchita D'Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur (2021): The Fall in Income Inequality during COVID-19 in Five European Countries. (HAL open science), Paris, 39 S.

Abstract

"We here use panel data from the COME-HERE survey to track income inequality during COVID-19 in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden. Relative inequality in equivalent household disposable income among individuals changed in a hump-shaped way over 2020. An initial rise from January to May was more than reversed by September. Absolute inequality also fell over this period. As such, policy responses may have been of more benefit for the poorer than for the richer." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clark, Andrew E., Conchita D'Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur (2021): The fall in income inequality during COVID-19 in four European countries. In: Journal of Economic Inequality, Jg. 19, H. 3, S. 489-507. DOI:10.1007/s10888-021-09499-2

Abstract

"We here use panel data from the COME-HERE survey to track income inequality during COVID-19 in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Relative inequality in equivalent household disposable income among individuals changed in a hump-shaped way between January 2020 and January 2021, with an initial rise from January to May 2020 being more than reversed by September 2020. Absolute inequality also fell over this period. Due to the pandemic some households lost more than others, and government compensation schemes were targeted towards the poorest, implying that on average income differences decreased. Generalized Lorenz domination reveals that these distributive changes reduced welfare in Italy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Cook, Rose & Damian Grimshaw (2021): A gendered lens on COVID-19 employment and social policies in Europe. In: European Societies, Jg. 23, H. sup1, S. S215-S227. DOI:10.1080/14616696.2020.1822538

Abstract

"The COVID-19 outbreak and resultant economic crisis has led to governments in Europe taking extraordinary action to support citizens. Bodies such as the International Labour Organisation (ILO) recommend such measures should include targeted support for the most affected population groups. Women form one of these groups, with disproportionate impacts on their employment and economic resources already documented. Although the disruption brought about by the COVID-19 crisis has the potential to reshape gender relations for everyone’s benefit, there are concerns that the crisis will exacerbate underlying gender inequalities. Though these impacts are likely to be felt globally, public policy has the potential to mitigate them and to ensure a gender-sensitive recovery from the crisis. This paper introduces a gendered lens on the employment and social policies European countries have established since the crisis, with a brief comparative analysis of short-time working schemes in four countries – Germany, Italy, Norway, and the UK. Ongoing research seeks to extend the comparative, gendered analysis of the design, access and impacts of COVID-19 employment and social policies across Europe." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Demary, Markus (2021): Will COVID-19 Cause Insolvencies, Zombification or Debt Deleveraging? (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2021,03), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the financial positions of many companies. For the next months, a wave of insolvencies, a zombification caused by rescue measures or a debt deleveraging are on the table. Which of the three scenarios will dominate, depends, however, on the efficiency of restructuring measures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Deole, Sumit S., Max Deter & Yue Huang (2021): Home Sweet Home: Working from home and employee performance during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 791), Maastricht, 35 S.

Abstract

"In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic forced governments in many countries to ask employees to work from home (WFH) where possible. Using representative data from the UK, we show that increases in WFH frequency are associated with a higher self-perceived productivity per hour and an increase in weekly working hours among the employed. The WFH-productivity relationship is stronger for employees residing in regions worse affected by the pandemic and those who previously commuted longer distances, while it is weaker for mothers with childcare responsibilities. Also, we find that employees with higher autonomy over job tasks and work hours and those with childcare responsibilities worked longer hours when working from home. With prospects that WFH possibility may remain permanently open for some employees, we discuss our results' labor market policy implications." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Deryugina, Tatyana, Olga Shurchkov & Jenna E. Stearns (2021): COVID-19 Disruptions Disproportionately Affect Female Academics. (NBER working paper 28360), Cambridge, MA, 31 S. DOI:10.3386/w28360

Abstract

"The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent countermeasures, such as school closures, the shift to working from home, and social distancing are disrupting economic activity around the world. As with other major economic shocks, there are winners and losers, leading to increased inequality across certain groups. In this project, we investigate the effects of COVID-19 disruptions on the gender gap in academia. We administer a global survey to a broad range of academics across various disciplines to collect nuanced data on the respondents' circumstances, such as a spouse's employment, the number and ages of children, and time use. We find that female academics, particularly those who have children, report a disproportionate reduction in time dedicated to research relative to what comparable men and women without children experience. Both men and women report substantial increases in childcare and housework burdens, but women experienced significantly larger increases than men did." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Djankov, Simeon, Eva Yiwen Zhang, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Marie Hyland (2021): The evolving gender gap in labor force participation during COVID-19. (Policy Brief / Peterson Institute for International Economics 2021,8), Washington, DC, 19 S.

Abstract

"Despite many significant gains by women in the paid workforce in recent decades, the percentage of women participating in the labor force has remained lower than the percentage of male participants. Now, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic downturn it precipitated, the gap in labor force participation between men and women in some economies has actually widened, with potentially damaging repercussions for women’s career prospects and pay. The pandemic has disproportionately affected sectors employing more women, such as retail stores, restaurants, and the hotel and hospitality business. An increase in family caregiving responsibilities because of school and childcare closures has also fallen on working mothers' shoulders. Both factors have pulled women out of the labor force. The authors track trends in male and female labor force participation in 43 countries and find substantial differences across countries in the way women’s participation has been affected relative to that of men. In some countries, such as Colombia, Chile, and Cyprus, the gender gap in labor force participation widened the most during the pandemic. The gender gap also widened in the United States, driving 2.5 million women from their jobs in what Vice President Kamala Harris called a “national emergency” for women. In other economies, such as Luxembourg and Lithuania, the gender gap in labor force participation, unexpectedly, shrank during the early period of the pandemic. On average, female employees have fared better in countries where women are less concentrated in the services sector, less likely to be employed as temporary workers, and where laws supported greater equality at the onset of the crisis. Greater government expenditure on childcare in the pre-COVID-19 era, however, does not appear to have insulated female workers from the damaging repercussions of the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Doerr, S., M. Erdem, G. Franco, L. Gambacorta & A. Illes (2021): Technological capacity and firms' recovery from Covid-19. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 209. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110102

Abstract

"Can higher technological capacity help firms to recover quicker from recessions? Analysing the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on firm revenues in several countries, we find that firms headquartered in jurisdictions with better digital infrastructure generated relatively higher revenue during the shock period. Improving a country's technological capability by one standard deviation is associated with a relative increase in revenues of the average firm by around 4%. The positive effect of technology is more pronounced among smaller firms, suggesting that it could have helped the recovery of SMEs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))

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Doorley, Karina, Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa Maria Sologon (2021): The Gender Gap in Income and the COVID-19 Pandemic. (IZA discussion paper 14360), Bonn, 32 S.

Abstract

"The gender income gap is large and well documented for many countries. Recent research shows that it is mainly driven by differences in working patterns between men and women, but also by wage differences. The tax-benefit system cushions the gender income gap by redistributing between men and women. The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented levels of unemployment in 2020 in many countries, with some suggestion that men and women have been differently affected. This research investigates the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the gender gap in income in Ireland. Using nowcasting techniques and microsimulation, we model the effect of pandemic induced employment and wage changes on market and disposable income. We show how the pandemic and the associated tax-benefit support can be expected to change the income gap between men and women. Policy conclusions are drawn about future redistribution between men and women." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Drahokoupil, Jan & Torsten Müller (2021): Job retention schemes in Europe. A lifeline during the Covid-19 pandemic. (Working paper / European Trade Union Institute 2021.07), Brussels, 61 S.

Abstract

"This paper analyses the job retention schemes implemented in response to the Covid-19 crisis, showing quantitative trends and differences in terms of expenditure on the schemes and the number of workers involved. The key focus is on a qualitative analysis of the schemes’ key properties. In order to understand the diversity of job retention schemes implemented in the Covid-19 crisis, we first develop a typology, distinguishing between three underlying types: short-time work schemes, furlough schemes, and wage subsidies. We then provide a comparative overview of the different schemes implemented in the context of the crisis, considering their design as well as their size in terms of expenditure, and map adjustments made to them in the course of the crisis. The third section analyses the evolution of the take-up of the schemes in the course of 2020. The remaining sections discuss in detail such key properties as: eligibility criteria, the level of support for employees and employers, the role of collective bargaining and worker participation, dismissal protection, measures to avoid misuse, and training provisions. The paper concludes by drawing lessons from experiences with the Covid-19 pandemic in light of the discussion on whether and how permanent schemes should be established. It argues that the main issue is to find a design that balances the interests of all stakeholders. This would require meaningful financial participation on the part of employers, effective integration of the schemes into active labour market policies, and provisions to avoid misuse, including the effective involvement of worker participation and collective bargaining structures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Emmerling, Johannes, Davide Furceri, Francisco Líbano Monteiro, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, Pietro Pizzuto & Massimo Tavoni (2021): Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics. (IMF working paper 2021,119), Washington, DC, 38 S.

Abstract

"COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ferdosi, Mohammad (2021): Canada’s unemployment insurance in crisis. In: International Journal of Social Welfare, Jg. 30, H. 2, S. 182-192. DOI:10.1111/ijsw.12448

Abstract

"The past several decades in Canada have been marked by systematic attempts to restructure the federally regulated unemployment insurance system, despite growing unemployment and the need for labour market relief. Several program changes, including tightening eligibility requirements, lowering benefits, increasing administrative burdens, limiting enrolment duration and intensifying surveillance have significantly impacted the level and quality of support available to some of the most vulnerable sections of the population. Although Canada weathered the 2008 crisis relatively well, it undertook similar cuts as some of the worst hit European Union members. In line with OECD recommendations, Canadian measures have been rationalised as a means of strengthening work incentives, stimulating growth and reducing deficits. The effect of the coronavirus has been to challenge these longstanding assumptions and policies, pointing to the need for expanded state efforts to cushion social and economic risks in the face of clear evidence of market failure." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Fiaschi, Davide & Cristina Tealdi (2021): Young People between Education and the Labour Market during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy. (IZA discussion paper 14479), Bonn, 16 S.

Abstract

"We analyse the distribution and the flows between different types of employment (self-employment, temporary, and permanent), unemployment, education, and other types of inactivity, with particular focus on the duration of the school-to-work transition (STWT). The aim is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy on the careers of individuals aged 15-34. We find that the pandemic worsened an already concerning situation of higher unemployment and inactivity rates and significantly longer STWT duration compared to other EU countries, particularly for females and residents in the South of Italy. In the midst of the pandemic, individuals aged 20-29 were less in (permanent and temporary) employment and more in the NLFET (Neither in the Labour Force nor in Education or Training) state, particularly females and non Italian citizens. We also provide evidence of an increased propensity to return to schooling, but most importantly of a substantial prolongation of the STWT duration towards permanent employment, mostly for males and non Italian citizens. Our contribution lies in providing a rigorous estimation and analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the carriers of young individuals in Italy, which has not yet been explored in the literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Finamor, Lucas & Dana Scott (2021): Labor market trends and unemployment insurance generosity during the pandemic. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 199. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109722

Abstract

"We test whether changes in unemployment insurance (UI) benefit generosity under the CARES Act in the US are associated with differential employment outcomes under the distinct conditions of the pandemic. While we observe a negative association between UI generosity and employment, we show that the relative employment gap arises before the Act was instituted, decreases in magnitude when the augmented benefits were in place, and does not change when the benefits expansion expires." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))

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Fischer, Georg & Michael Landesmann (2021): The Covid Crisis: Occupational Impacts in EU Economies and Policy Suggestions. (WIIW policy notes and reports 53), Wien, 36 S.

Abstract

"This policy note examines sectoral and occupational employment impacts of the Covid-19 crisis. The crisis hit EU economies (and advanced economies in general) as they were already undergoing important structural changes due to technological change (digitisation), a factor affecting most organisations now and in the future. Some of these changes accelerated during the pandemic, along with at times dramatic changes in sectoral demand patterns (due to lock-downs) and shifts in work organisation, all of which had strongly differential impacts on various occupational groups. The policy note studies in-depth occupational employment patterns before and during the pandemic using detailed Labour Force Statistics, including analysis of the differentiated impacts on women and men. The major policy challenge is to avoid lasting gaps in overall employment as economies recover and as temporary support schemes are phased out. Further, policy makers need to focus attention on how to accompany the continuing changes in structural employment patterns. These changes can have significant and lasting impacts on the employment prospects of different segments of the labour force (in terms of age, gender and educational/skill levels). The policy note postulates a number of policy actions which should be embarked upon, both at the national and EU level." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fuest, Clemens, Jürgen Matthes, Peter Buerstedde, Henrik Uterwedde, Marc Lehnfeld, Hubert Fromlet, Torsten Graap, Peter Sparding & Markus Taube (2021): Restart nach Corona: Krisenpakete im Vergleich. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 74, H. 12, S. 3-30.

Abstract

"In den kurzen Atempausen zwischen den Wellen der Corona-Pandemie nutzen viele Regierungen die Zeit, um Strategien für die wirtschaftliche Erholung und den Restart nach Corona zu entwickeln. Dazu gehören die Gewährleistung eines reibungslosen Strukturwandels, die digitale Transformation sowie die Bekämpfung des Klimawandels. Gefragt sind Finanzierungskonzepte, die die Staatsverschuldung in Grenzen halten und den Sozialstaat nicht über Gebühr belasten. Wie kann ein Restart nach Corona unter diesen Bedingungen gelingen? Welche Lösungen haben andere Länder gefunden, und welche Lehren lassen sich hieraus ziehen?" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Furceri, Davide, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto (2021): The Rise in Inequality after Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role? (IMF working paper 2021,120), Washington, DC, 27 S.

Abstract

"Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2020). In this paper, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government's fiscal balance, health expenditures or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers (IMF 2020; Stiglitz 2020; Sandbu 2020b) that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gonzalez-Pampillon, Nicolas, Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim & Katharina Ziegler (2021): Recovering from the first Covid-19 lockdown: Economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help out scheme. (Covid-19 analysis series / Centre for Economic Performance 018), London, 27 S.

Abstract

"The hospitality sector was particularly hard-hit by restrictions introduced to stop the spread of COVID-19. The Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) scheme – implemented in August 2020 after the 1st national lockdown had ended – aimed to boost demand and protect jobs in the food service sector. Participating businesses in EOTHO offered a 50% discount from Monday to Wednesday, up to £10 per person, on food and non-alcoholic drinks consumed on the premises. To capture some of the effects from the policy, we look at footfall using daily mobility data from Google and employment using daily data on job posts from Indeed UK. Our empirical strategy relies on the observed spatial variation in uptake of the scheme. We exploited this variation comparing locations with different take-up before and after the introduction of the policy. The results indicate that EOTHO induced higher footfall (by 5%-6%) associated with recreational activities, concentrated on specific days when the discount was available (Mondays to Wednesdays in August). However, the programme failed to encourage people to go out for other purposes and to eat out after the discount ended. EOTHO also increased recruitment in the food preparation & service sector. We observe an increase in the number of jobs posts (by 7%-14%) on the Indeed website. We do not find evidence of an increase in the number of job posts in other industries, suggesting the effect on recruitment was concentrated on food establishments. As this indicator measures the flow of job adverts, a transitory effect on job posts could stillimply a permanent increase in the number of employees. Over 160 million meals were claimed by the end of September 2020, with government spending £849 million on the policy. Data limitations as well as the interaction between different policies complicate any cost-benefit calculation of the programme. On top of that, there is evidence indicating the increase in footfall due to EOTHO had an adverse effect on new COVID-19 cases. Thus, any economic gains from the scheme may have come at the cost of more infections. Further research – using administrative data – is needed to assess the overall cost-effectiveness of EOTHO." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Grimme, Christian (2021): Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die globalen Leistungsbilanzsalden. In: ifo Schnelldienst digital, Jg. 2, H. 2, S. 1-4.

Abstract

"Der Ausbruch der Corona-Pandemie hat die globale Konjunktur und den internationalen Handel stark beeinträchtigt. Die wirtschaftliche Aktivität brach im ersten Halbjahr 2020 drastisch ein und erholte sich kräftig im zweiten Halbjahr. Ein ähnliches Muster zeigt sich beim grenzüberschreitenden Warenverkehr. Der folgende Beitrag gibt einen kurzen Überblick über die Entwicklung der Leistungsbilanzsalden in Deutschland und im Rest der Welt im abgelaufenen Jahr. Leistungsbilanzsalden beinhalten dabei alle Transaktionen zwischen dem Inland und dem Ausland, die nicht im Zusammenhang mit dem grenzüberschreitenden Kapitalverkehr stehen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Gros, Daniel & Alexandre Ounnas (2021): Labour market responses to the Covid-19 crisis in the United States and Europe. (CEPS working document 2021,01), Brüssel, 16 S.

Abstract

"Labour markets have reacted very differently to the Covid-19 crisis. In the US, the impact on unemployment rates was rapid across all states. They increased sharply in March and April 2020 and recovered steadily thereafter. In Europe, by contrast, unemployment increased far less, and the adjustment was more gradual. This difference in unemployment responsiveness is most likely a consequence of the widespread use of short-term work schemes in Europe, given that the transatlantic differences in hours worked overall are much smaller than for unemployment. Using data from US states and EU member states, an econometric analysis of the impact of the restrictions (lockdowns) implemented by governments to contain the spread of the virus reveals that in the case of the US, unemployment appears to have been driven mostly by the aggregate shock generated by the pandemic as it played out between March and November 2020. In the EU, unemployment showed little variation. The Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) used in different US states and EU countries, as can be demonstrated through a regression analysis, did not always have significant effects on unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Haupt, Marlene & Viola Lind (2021): Gleichstellung in der Krise – Eine vergleichende Analyse der Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter in Deutschland und Schweden. In: Sozialer Fortschritt, Jg. 70, H. 5/6, S. 267-291. DOI:10.3790/sfo.70.5-6.267

Abstract

"In Deutschland sind Frauen pandemiebedingt stärker von Kurzarbeit und Arbeitslosigkeit sowie von Problemen der Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf betroffen als Männer. Gleichzeitig arbeiten sie aufgrund der geschlechtersegregierten Arbeitswelt häufiger in schlechter bezahlten systemrelevanten Berufen. Staatliche Hilfs- und Unterstützungsangebote zur Krisenbewältigung umfassen primär finanzielle Leistungen und Beratungsmöglichkeiten. In entscheidenden wissenschaftlichen und politischen Beratergremien sind Frauen unterrepräsentiert. Der Vergleich mit Schweden verdeutlicht, dass dort die Geschlechtergleichstellung in Normalzeiten stark institutionell verankert wurde. Gender Mainstreaming, Gender Budgeting und Gender Monitoring sind daher auch in Krisenzeiten fester Bestandteil der Strategien. Das schwedische Beispiel zeigt wichtige alternative Herangehensweisen und Denkanstöße für die Debatte um eine geschlechtergerechte Krisenpolitik in Deutschland." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Hershbein, Brad J. & Harry J. Holzer (2021): The COVID-19 Pandemic's Evolving Impacts on the Labor Market: Who's Been Hurt and What We Should Do. (Upjohn Institute working paper 341), Kalamazoo, Mich., 47 S. DOI:10.17848/wp21-341

Abstract

"In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy restrictions, we consider a range of employment outcomes—including permanent layoffs, which generate large and lasting costs—and how these outcomes vary across demographic groups, occupations, and industries over time. We also examine how these employment patterns vary across different states, according to the timing and severity of virus caseloads, deaths, and closure measures. We find that the labor market recovery of the summer and early fall stagnated in late fall and early winter. As noted by others, we find low-wage and minority workers are hardest hit initially, but that recoveries have varied, and not always consistently, between Blacks and Hispanics. Statewide business closures and other restrictions on economic activity reduce employment rates concurrently but do not seem to have lingering effects once relaxed. In contrast, virus deaths—but not caseloads—not only depress current employment but produce accumulating harm. We conclude with policy options for states to repair their labor markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hossain, Mobarak (2021): Gender differences in experiencing Coronavirus-triggered economic hardship. Evidence from four developing countries. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 71, S. 1-5. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100555

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Hüther, Michael, Matthias Diermeier & Henry Goecke (2021): Erschöpft durch die Pandemie. Was bleibt von der Globalisierung? Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, 295 S.

Abstract

"Die Erschöpfung der Globalisierung hat sich in den vergangenen Jahren immer weiter verstärkt. Der Covid-19-Schock erreichte die Welt auf dem bisherigen Höhepunkt des Systemkonflikts zwischen chinesischem Staatskapitalismus und dem zunehmend gespaltenen transatlantischen Westen. Die Europäische Union wirkt in ihrer Reaktion darauf überwiegend träge. Handlungsfähig zeigen sich in Europa hingegen die nationalstaatlichen Hierarchien. Dieses Buch verbindet den zeitlichen Kontext mit der Wirkungsperspektive. Damit drängt sich die Frage auf: Was bleibt von der Globalisierung, nachdem sie erschöpft durch die Pandemie ging? Die Antwort liegt nicht in einer isolierten ökonomischen Analyse der Pandemie, sondern in der Einordnung von Strukturen und Bedingungen der Globalisierung. Damit werden neue Optionen erkundet, Probleme und Defizite benannt sowie Möglichkeiten künftiger Kooperationen skizziert. Die Globalisierung hat damit die Chance, sich in der Resilienz einer offenen, freiheitlichen Welt mit ihren Ordnungsschwächen und Orientierungsverlusten neu zu begründen." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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Jaeger, David A., Jaime Arellano-Bover, Krzysztof Karbownik, Marta Martínez-Matute, John M. Nunley & R. Alan Seals (2021): The Global COVID-19 Student Survey: First Wave Results. (IZA discussion paper 14419), Bonn, 171 S.

Abstract

"University students have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We present results from the first wave of the Global COVID-19 Student Survey, which was administered at 28 universities in the United States, Spain, Australia, Sweden, Austria, Italy, and Mexico between April and October 2020. The survey addresses contemporaneous outcomes and future expectations regarding three fundamental aspects of students' lives in the pandemic: the labor market, education, and health. We document the differential responses of students as a function of their country of residence, parental income, gender, and for the US their race." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kitov, Ivan (2021): The link between unemployment and real economic growth in developed countries. (MPRA paper / University Library of Munich 105873), München, 39 S.

Abstract

"Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun's law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and unemployment rate between 2010 and 2019. The initial results show that the change in unemployment rate can be accurately predicted by variations in the rate of real economic growth. There is a discrete version of the model which is represented by a piecewise linear dependence of the annual increment in unemployment rate on the annual rate of change in real GDP per capita. The lengths of the country-dependent time segments are defined by breaks in the GDP measurement units associated with definitional revisions to the nominal GDP and GDP deflator (dGDP). The difference between the CPI and dGDP indices since the beginning of measurements reveals the years of such breaks. Statistically, the link between the studied variables in the revised models is characterized by the coefficient of determination in the range from R2=0.866 (Australia) to R2=0.977 (France). The residual errors can be likely associated with the measurement errors, e.g. the estimates of real GDP per capita from various sources differ by tens of percent. The obtained results confirm the original finding on the absence of structural unemployment in the studied developed countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kleifgen, Eva, Duncan Roth & Ignat Stepanok (2021): Exportbetriebe und die Folgen der Covid-19-Pandemie: Kriseneffekte unterscheiden sich nach Zielländern der Exporte. (IAB-Kurzbericht 10/2021), Nürnberg, 8 S.

Abstract

"In Deutschland hängt mehr als ein Viertel aller Arbeitsplätze vom Export ab und die Covid-19-Pandemie hat im Jahr 2020 zu einem beträchtlichen Rückgang des Exportvolumens geführt. Dennoch sind Exportbetriebe nach eigener Einschätzung im Durchschnitt nicht stärker von der Pandemie betroffen als nicht exportierende Betriebe. Allerdings gibt es in der Gruppe der Exporteure Unterschiede je nach Zielland ihrer Ausfuhren. Das zeigt eine aktuelle Betriebsbefragung des IAB zu den wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf exportierende Betriebe." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Konle-Seidl, Regina (2021): Is this crisis different? The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the economic and social situation of young people in Europe (Series "Tracking youth joblessness during the Covid-19 crisis"). In: IAB-Forum H. 22.12.2021, o. Sz., 2021-12-21.

Abstract

"Wirtschaftliche Einbrüche haben für junge Menschen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt allgemein schwerwiegendere Folgen als für andere Altersgruppen. Wie wirkt sich die Covid-19-Krise diesbezüglich im Vergleich mit der globalen Finanzkrise vor einem Jahrzehnt aus? Ein genauer Blick auch auf andere europäische Länder liefert hier interessante Einblicke." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kpodar, Kangni R., Montfort Mlachila, Saad N. Quayyum & Vigninou Gammadigbe (2021): Defying the Odds: Remittances During the COVID-19 Pandemic. (IMF working paper 2021,186), Washington, DC, 35 S.

Abstract

"This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries with bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in remittance flows, notwithstanding an unprecedent global recession triggered by the pandemic. Using the local projection approach to estimate the impulse response functions of remittance flows during Jan 2020-Dec 2020, the paper provides evidence that: (i) remittances responded positively to COVID-19 infection rates in migrant home countries, underscoring its role as an important automatic stabilizer; (ii) stricter containment measures have the unintended consequence of dampening remittances; and (iii) a shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions appears to have also played a role in the surge in formal remittances. Lastly, the size of the fiscal stimulus in host countries is positively associated with remittances as the fiscal response cushions the economic impact of the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Larsen, Christa, Jenny Kipper, Alfons Schmid & Ciprian Panzaru (Hrsg.) (2021): Transformations of Regional and Local Labour Markets Across Europe in Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Times. Challenges for Regional and Local Observatories. (Forschung und deren Anwendung im Bereich des regionalen und lokalen Arbeitsmarktmonitorings im transnationalen Vergleich (Veröffentlichungen des IWAK)), Baden-Baden: Nomos, 415 S. DOI:10.5771/9783957104007

Abstract

"The European Network on Regional Labour Market Monitoring publishes annual anthologies to gather perspectives from all over Europe and beyond on current topics related to regional and local labour markets. In the anthology of 2021, over 30 network members from ten countries reflect on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and state interventions or other measures in different localities and circumstances. They provide analyses on a variety of framework conditions of regional and local labour markets and their influence on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the authors shed light on state interventions and other measures from a comparative perspective. Discussions on the acceleration of social inequality, digitalisation and structural changes during the COVID-19 pandemic complement their multifaceted approaches. Overall, the authors provide information on data, as well as methodological and conceptual approaches that can be applied in regional and local labour market observatories to help regions and localities in their processes of digital, social and sustainable transition." (Publisher information, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Livanos, Ilias & Panagiotis Ravanos (2021): Job loss and COVID-19. Do remote work, automation and tasks at work matter? (CEDEFOP working paper series 2021,4), Thessaloniki, 41 S. DOI:10.2801/00455

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have adverse and non-uniform impacts on future employment prospects for different job positions in the EU. We investigate two possible determinants of the variation of future employment loss due to the pandemic: the potential of a job to be carried out ‘from home’ and the risk of being substituted by automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Major, Lee Elliot, Andrew Eyles & Stephen Machin (2021): Unequal learning and labour market losses in the crisis: consequences for social mobility. (CEP discussion paper 1748), London, 33 S.

Abstract

"The unequal learning and labour market losses arising in the UK due to the Covid-19 pandemic are used to assess the consequences for social mobility. Labour market and learning losses have been more pronounced for people from poorer families and this is incorporated into a generalisation of the standard, canonical social mobility model. A calibration shows a significantly higher intergenerational elasticity - reflecting lower social mobility - because of the uneven nature of losses by family income, and from dynamic scarring. Results from a randomised information experiment incorporated in a bespoke Social Mobility Survey corroborate this, as participants become more sceptical about the social mobility prospects of the Covid generation when given information about the losses that have occurred in the crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Meinen, Philipp, Roberta Serafini & Ottavia Papagalli (2021): Regional economic impact of Covid-19: the role of sectoral structure and trade linkages. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 2528), Frankfurt am Main, 22 S.

Abstract

"The paper provides an ex-post analysis of the determinants of within-country regional heterogeneity of the labour market impact of COVID-19. By focussing on the first wave of the pandemic in the four largest euro area economies, it finds that the propagation of the economic impact across regions cannot be explained by the spread of infections only. Instead, a region's economic structure is a significant driver of the observed heterogeneity. Moreover, our results suggest that a region's trade relations, both within and across countries, represent a relevant indirect channel through which COVID-19 related disruptions affect regional economic activity. In this regard, the analysis depicts vulnerabilities arising from potential disruptions of the highly integrated EU supply chains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Niehues, Judith & Maximilian Stockhausen (2021): Inequality revisited: An international comparison with a special focus on the case of Germany. (IW-Report / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2021,18), Köln, 50 S.

Abstract

"While global extreme poverty and global income inequality have decreased over the last decades before the Corona pandemic, inequality within many industrialized countries has increased. In Germany, net income inequality has increased after the German reunification, but since 2005 there has merely been no change in the distribution of net incomes. A similar picture can be drawn for the development of net wealth, which is generally more unequally distributed than net income. Since the end of the financial crisis, the level of net wealth inequality hast remained almost unchanged. In the last decade, both income and wealth have remarkably increased on average across all income and wealth groups. This development was accompanied by a rising share of labour income reaching levels of the 1990s again. Unfortunately, the Corona pandemic has put a temporary end to the positive income development, and it is not clear so far, what the long-run consequences of the Corona pandemic will be. In the short-run, it is especially a threat to the very poor in developing countries and it is a large challenge in the fight against global extreme poverty." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Nieuwenhuis, Rense & Mara A. Yerkes (2021): Workers' well-being in the context of the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. In: Community, work & family, Jg. 24, H. 2, S. 226-235. DOI:10.1080/13668803.2021.1880049

Abstract

"In this Voices article, we use emerging evidence to reflect on the consequences of Covid-19 for various aspects of workers' wellbeing. This brief review emphasises how COVID-19 exacerbates existing, well-understood inequalities, along the intersections of community, work, and family. Workers on the periphery of the labour market, including non-standard workers and the self-employed, but also women and low-paid workers, are experiencing significant losses in relation to work, working hours and/or wages. Even once the pandemic is contained, its impact will continue to be felt by many communities, workers, and families for months and years to come." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Osuna, Victoria & José Ignacio García-Pérez (2021): Temporary layoffs, short-time work and COVID-19: the case of a dual labour market. (Working papers series / Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics 2021.11), Sevilla, 23 S.

Abstract

"This paper examines the type of short-time work schemes implemented in Spain to preserve jobs and worker's incomes during the COVID-19 crisis. These policies have typically involved some degree of subsidization of payroll taxes for firms and also subsidies to workers. For this purpose, we simulate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 on labor market outcomes. The steady-state results show that the availability of short-time work schemes and temporary layoffs does not necessarily prevent a large increase in unemployment and job destruction. The effects of these measures depend on the degree of subsidization of payroll taxes and on the design of the policy. The heavily subsidized short-time work schemes provide incentives to preserve workers on payroll working very few hours that would not have been employed in the benchmark situation, generating deadweight costs and inefficiencies. The transition exercise shows that a scenario with a moderate degree of subsidization of payroll taxes, and where the subsidy is independent of the reduction in hours worked, is the least harmful for both welfare and fiscal deficit. However, this is not the scenario that maximizes the number of jobs preserved. A more generous short-time work scheme, similar to the one implemented in the first year of the pandemic, accomplishes that goal instead. The drawbacks, though, are fiscal sustainability and deadweight costs. The winners and losers exercise shows that more than 50% of the workers are hit negatively in terms of average income and very few workers are better off after this shock: less than 3% in the scenarios which heavily subsidizes short-time work as a result of this generous work sharing strategy. The category that experiences the strongest distributional changes is the one composed of unemployed workers. In the heavily subsidized short-time work scenarios they are the ones who improve more in terms of the proportion of workers affected and also in terms of the average increase" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Palomino, Juan C., Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian (2021): The COVID-19 shock on the labour market: Poverty and inequality effects across Spanish regions. (Documentos de trabajo / ICAE 2103), Madrid, 24 S.

Abstract

"We evaluate the distributional consequences of social distancing for the case of Spanish regions. Under 2 months of lockdown plus 10 months of partial functioning our study consistently finds potential wage losses that are sizeable and uneven across the wage distribution all around Spain, but with different intensity depending on the region's productive structure. The increase of the headcount poverty index oscillates between 8.2 (Navarre) and 19.2 (the Balearic Islands) percentage points, while the Gini coefficient rises between 2.3 (Navarre) and 5.3 (the Balearic Islands) Gini points. We also find that inequality between regions increases, eroding regional cohesion in Spain." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Paterson-Young, Claire (2021): Covid-19: emerging needs for unemployed and economically inactive individuals. In: Community, work & family, Jg. 24, H. 5, S. 507-511. DOI:10.1080/13668803.2021.1931032

Abstract

"This Voices article presents emerging findings from research investigating the consequences of Covid-19 on individuals engaged on employability programmes in the United Kingdom. It outlines the challenges presented by ‘lockdown’ restrictions, as introduced to reduce the spread of Covid-19, on the delivery of employability programmes. Individuals engaged on such programmes experience a wealth of needs that have been compounded by Covid-19, resulting in new, emerging needs relating to personal wellbeing, social isolation, and confidence. Without effective and innovative support, individuals experiencing unemployment and economic inactivity will undoubtedly experience increased inequality; this inequality impacts on family, with individuals experiencing isolation from such, which in turn reduces wellbeing and stimuli, and indeed work, with Covid-19 compounding challenges in securing employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pigeron-Piroth, Isabelle, Ines Funk, Birte Nienaber, H. Peter Dörrenbächer & Rachid Belkacem (2021): Der grenzüberschreitende Arbeitsmarkt der Großregion. Der Einfluss der Covid-19-Pandemie. In: Informationen zur Raumentwicklung, Jg. 48, H. 2, S. 74-85.

Abstract

"Während der erste Welle der Pandemie im Frühjahr 2020 wurde die grenzüberschreitende Mobilität in der Großregion (Saarland, Lothringen, Luxemburg, Rheinland-Pfalz, Wallonien) massiv beschränkt. Seit Beginn der zweiten Welle der Pandemie im Herbst 2020 stehen die Grenzen erneut im Fokus der öffentlichen Debatte." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Profeta, Paola, Ximena Caló & Roberto Occhiuzzi (2021): COVID-19 and its economic impact on women and women's poverty. Insights from 5 European Countries : study, requested by the FEMM committe. Brüssel, 58 S. DOI:10.2861/895019

Abstract

"This in-depth, case-analytical overview, commissioned by the European Parliament’s Policy Department for Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the FEMM Committee, examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on a representative sample of member states with the aim of alimenting policy recommendations for the COVID-19 recovery period to ensure that the gains of the past years in the matter of gender equality are not overridden by the short-term negative effects of the measures implemented to combat the COVID-19 sanitary crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Riehm, Kira E., Calliope Holingue, Emily J. Smail, Arie Kapteyn, Daniel Bennett, Johannes Thrul, Frauke Kreuter, Emma E. McGinty, Luther G. Kalb, Cindy B. Veldhuis, Renee M. Johnson, M. Daniele Fallin & Elizabeth A. Stuart (2021): Trajectories of Mental Distress Among US Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic. In: Annals of behavioral medicine, Jg. 55, H. 2, S. 93-102., 2020-12-22. DOI:10.1093/abm/kaaa126

Abstract

"Cross-sectional studies have found that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has negatively affected population-level mental health. Longitudinal studies are necessary to examine trajectories of change in mental health over time and identify sociodemographic groups at risk for persistent distress. To examine the trajectories of mental distress between March 10 and August 4, 2020, a key period during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants included 6,901 adults from the nationally representative Understanding America Study, surveyed at baseline between March 10 and 31, 2020, with nine follow-up assessments between April 1 and August 4, 2020. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to examine the association between date and self-reported mental distress (measured with the four-item Patient Health Questionnaire) among U.S. adults overall and among sociodemographic subgroups defined by sex, age, race/ethnicity, household structure, federal poverty line, and census region. Compared to March 11, the odds of mental distress among U.S. adults overall were 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.65–2.07) times higher on April 1 and 1.92 (95% CI = 1.62–2.28) times higher on May 1; by August 1, the odds of mental distress had returned to levels comparable to March 11 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.66–0.96). Females experienced a sharper increase in mental distress between March and May compared to males (females: OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.85–2.82; males: OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.15–2.02). These findings highlight the trajectory of mental health symptoms during an unprecedented pandemic, including the identification of populations at risk for sustained mental distress." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schiemann, Scott & Atsushi Narisada (2021): A less objectionable greed? Work-life conflict and unjust pay during a pandemic. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 71. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100564

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Sedik, Tahsin Saadi & Jiae Yoo (2021): Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back? (IMF working paper 2021,11), Washington, DC, 26 S.

Abstract

"COVID-19 has exacerbated concerns about the rise of the robots and other automation technologies. This paper analyzes empirically the impact of past major pandemics on robot adoption and inequality. First, we find that pandemic events accelerate robot adoption, especially when the health impact is severe and is associated with a significant economic downturn. Second, while robots may raise productivity, they could also increase inequality by displacing low-skilled workers. We find that following a pandemic, the increase in inequality over the medium term is larger for economies with higher robot density and where new robot adoption has increased more. Our results suggest that the concerns about the rise of the robots amid the COVID-19 pandemic seem justified." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Sjögren, Anna, Mattias Mattias, Caroline Hall, Helena Holmlund, Martin Lundin, Hanna Mühlrad & Björn Öckert (2021): Swedish children and youth during the COVID-19 pandemic. (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy 2021,03), Bonn, 133 S.

Abstract

"Based on previous research, available statistics and current information on the COVID-19 pandemic, this report analyses and discusses possible consequences of the ongoing pandemic for Swedish children and youth, in the short and longer term. The pandemic is discussed in five chapters focusing on (1)the impact on childhood environment and human capital development,(2)the consequences for children's development and school performance due to increased absenteeism among children, students and teachers in preschools and schools, (3) the effects of distance education, (4)the impact on the demand for education, and (5)consequences for labour market entry and long run labour market outcomes. It is too early to draw firm conclusions about the long-term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, and yet our overall conclusion is that the pandemic has negative consequences for many children and young adults. Children and youth from disadvantaged environments, with a weak socio-economic background and an inadequate social safety net, are more likely to be severely affected. There are therefore reasons to safeguard and develop the institutions, such as prenatal and child healthcare, social services and school health programs that provide services for children and youth. Moreover, the education system has an important task in compensating for shortcomings in human capital development and lost opportunities caused by the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Soric, Petar & Oscar Claveria (2021): Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic. (AQR working paper 2021,04), Barcelona, 24 S.

Abstract

"This paper examines the evolution of consumer uncertainty about unemployment one year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic in European countries. Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we use two alternative methods to directly approximate it. Both approaches are based on qualitative expectations elicited form the consumer survey conducted by the European Commission. On the one hand, following Dibiasi and Iselin (2019), we use the share of consumers unable to formalize expectations about unemployment (Knightian-type uncertainty). On the other hand, we use the geometric discrepancy indicator proposed by Claveria et al. (2019) to quantify the proportion of disagreement in business and consumer expectations. We have used information from 22 European countries. We find that both uncertainty measures covary. Although we observe marked differences across countries, in most cases the perception of employment uncertainty peaked before the outbreak of the crisis, plummeted during the first months of the lockdown, and started rising again since the past few months. When testing for cointegration with the unemployment rate, we find that the discrepancy indicator exhibits a long- term relationship with unemployment in most countries, while the Knightian uncertainty indicator shows a purely short-run relationship. The impact of both indicators on unemployment is characterised by considerable asymmetries, showing a more intense reaction to decreases in the level of uncertainty. While this finding may seem counterintuitive at first sight, it somehow reflects the fact that during recessive periods, the level of disagreement in the employment expectations of consumers drops considerably" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))