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Prettner, Klaus & Holger Strulik (2020): Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 116, S. 249-265. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.10.012

Abstract

"The effects of automation on economic growth, education, and inequality are analyzed using an R&D-driven growth model with endogenous education in which high-skilled workers are complements to machines and low-skilled workers are substitutes for machines. The model predicts that automation leads to an increasing share of college graduates, increasing income and wealth inequality, and a declining labor share. We show that standard policy suggestions for the age of automation can trigger unintended side effects on inequality, growth, and welfare, irrespective of whether they are financed by progressive wage taxation or by a robot tax." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2020 Elsevier) ((en))

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Scholl, Keller & Robin Hanson (2020): Testing the automation revolution hypothesis. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 193. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109287

Abstract

"Wages and employment predict automation in 832 U.S. jobs, 1999 to 2019, but add little to top 25 O*NET job features, whose best predictive model did not change over this period. Automation changes predict changes in neither wages nor employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2020 Elsevier) ((en))

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Schwabe, Henrik & Fulvio Castellacci (2020): Automation, workers' skills and job satisfaction. In: PLoS ONE, Jg. 15, H. 11. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0242929

Abstract

"When industrial robots are adopted by firms in a local labor market, some workers are displaced and become unemployed. Other workers that are not directly affected by automation may however fear that these new technologies might replace their working tasks in the future. This fear of a possible future replacement is important because it negatively affects workers' job satisfaction at present. This paper studies the extent to which automation affects workers' job satisfaction, and whether this effect differs for high- versus low-skilled workers. The empirical analysis uses microdata for several thousand workers in Norway from the Working Life Barometer survey for the period 2016–2019, combined with information on the introduction of industrial robots in Norway from the International Federation of Robotics. Our identification strategy exploits variation in the pace of introduction of industrial robots in Norwegian regions and industries since 2007 to instrument workers' fear of replacement. The results indicate that automation in industrial firms in recent years have induced 40% of the workers that are currently in employment to fear that their work might be replaced by a smart machine in the future. Such fear of future replacement does negatively affect workers' job satisfaction at present. This negative effect is driven by low-skilled workers, which are those carrying out routine-based tasks, and who are therefore more exposed to the risks of automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Stanton, Christopher T. & Catherine Thomas (2020): The Gig Economy Beyond Local Services and Transportation. In: CESifo forum, Jg. 21, H. 3, S. 21-26.

Abstract

"The gig economy characterizes a wide variety of shortterm freelance work, typically intermediated via online platforms that facilitate matching between buyers and providers. The widespread growth of ride-sharing platforms such as Uber and Lyft has led many to equate gig-economy work with tasks carried out face to face after matching on a platform. However, many gigs or tasks can be both contracted and performed remotely, particularly when the output can be delivered electronically. Platforms that enable this type of work are referred to as online labor markets." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Umbach, Susanne, Erik Haberzeth, Hanna Böving & Elise Glaß (2020): Kompetenzverschiebungen im Digitalisierungsprozess. Veränderungen für Arbeit und Weiterbildung aus Sicht der Beschäftigten. (Erwachsenenbildung und lebensbegleitendes Lernen - Forschung & Praxis 38), Bielefeld: wbv Publikation, 212 S. DOI:10.3278/6004593w

Abstract

"Thema der Studie ist der Wandel von Tätigkeiten an betrieblichen Arbeitsplätzen durch die Digitalisierung, für die in der betrieblichen Weiterbildung Unterstützungs- und Gestaltungsansätze entwickelt werden müssen. Anhand von sechs Betriebsfallstudien aus Logistik und stationärem Einzelhandel untersucht das Autorenteam zwei wesentliche Aspekte: die Veränderung von Tätigkeiten auf der ausführenden Ebene und die damit verbundenen Kompetenzverschiebungen. In dem subjektbezogenen Zugang zum Forschungsfeld sind die Beschäftigten Expertinnen und Experten ihrer Arbeit, um zentrale Fragen des digitalisierten Arbeitsalltags zu beantworten: Was heißt Digitalisierung für Arbeitsmittel und -organisation auf betrieblicher Ebene? Wie verändern sich Tätigkeiten? Welche Kompetenzverschiebungen im Hinblick auf menschliche Wissens- und Handlungspotenziale ergeben sich? Wie wird betriebliche Weiterbildung gestaltet? Im Ergebnis liefern die Autorinnen und der Autor ein erweitertes Kompetenzprofil, das die Besonderheiten der Digitalisierung aufnimmt. Es ist gleichzeitig Grundlage für eine personalorientierte und partizipative Weiterbildungspraxis." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Vargas Llave, Oscar & Tina Weber (2020): Regulations to address work-life balance in digital flexible working arrangements. Industrial relations. (Eurofound research report / European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions), Dublin, 38 S. DOI:10.2806/03528

Abstract

"Developments in information and communication technology (ICT) have been among the key drivers of change in working life over the past two decades. Specifically, telework and ICT-based mobile work (TICTM) exemplifies how digital technology has led to more flexible workplace and working time practices. However, the ability to work anywhere and at any time can lead to greater work intensification, competition and work-on-demand. If this is not explicitly addressed, it threatens to override the advantages that ICT-based flexible working brings to work–life balance. As part of Eurofound’s extensive research into the impact of TICTM on working conditions and on work–life balance, this report aims to provide policymakers with ways to address new challenges in the world of work and to serve as a reference for future initiatives in relation to digitalisation, working time and work–life balance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Veen, Alex, Tom Baratt & Caleb Goods (2020): Platform-capital's 'App-etite' for control: A labour process analysis of food-delivery work in Australia. In: Work, employment and society, Jg. 34, H. 3, S. 388-406. DOI:10.1177/0950017019836911

Abstract

"This qualitative case study adopts a labour process analysis to unpack the distinctive features of capital's control regimes in the food-delivery segment of the Australian platform-economy and assesses labour agency in response to these. Drawing upon worker experiences with the Deliveroo and UberEATS platforms, it is shown how the labour process controls are multi-facetted and more than algorithmic management, with three distinct features standing out: the panoptic disposition of the technological infrastructure, the use of information asymmetries to constrain worker choice, and the obfuscated nature of their performance management systems. Combined with the workers' precarious labour market positions and the Australian political-economic context, only limited, mainly individual, expressions of agency were found." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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de Vries, Gaaitzen J., Elisabetta Gentile, Sébastien Miroudot & Konstantin M. Wacker (2020): The rise of robots and the fall of routine jobs. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 66. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101885

Abstract

"This paper examines the impact of industrial robots on jobs. We combine data on robot adoption and occupations by industry in thirty-seven countries for the period from 2005 to 2015. We exploit differences across industries in technical feasibility – defined as the industry's share of tasks replaceable by robots – to identify the impact of robot usage on employment. The data allow us to differentiate effects by the routine-intensity of employment. We find that a rise in robot adoption relates significantly to a fall in the employment share of routine manual task-intensive jobs. This relation is observed in high-income countries, but not in emerging market and transition economies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2020 Elsevier) ((en))

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(2020): The future of jobs report 2020. (The future of jobs report 3), Cologny/Geneva, 162 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdowns and related global recession of 2020 have created a highly uncertain outlook for the labour market and accelerated the arrival of the future of work. The Future of Jobs Report 2020 aims to shed light on: 1) the pandemic-related disruptions thus far in 2020, contextualized within a longer history of economic cycles, and 2) the expected outlook for technology adoption, jobs and skills in the next five years. Despite the currently high degree of uncertainty, the report uses a unique combination of qualitative and quantitative intelligence to expand the knowledge base about the future of jobs and skills. It aggregates the views of business leaders—chief executives, chief strategy officers and chief human resources officers–on the frontlines of decision-making regarding human capital with the latest data from public and private sources to create a clearer picture of both the current situation and the future outlook for jobs and skills. The report also provides in-depth information for 15 industry sectors and 26 advanced and emerging countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2020): OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2020. (OECD digital economy outlook 3), Paris, 315 S. DOI:10.1787/bb167041-en

Abstract

"The OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2020 examines trends and analyses emerging opportunities and challenges in the digital economy. It highlights how OECD countries and partner economies are taking advantage of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and the Internet to meet their public policy objectives. Through comparative evidence, it informs policy makers of regulatory practices and policy options to help maximise the potential of the digital economy as a driver for innovation and inclusive growth. This third edition of the OECD Digital Economy Outlook provides a holistic overview of converging trends, policy developments and data on both the supply and demand sides of the digital economy. It illustrates how the digital transformation is affecting economies and societies. Finally, it provides a special focus on how the COVID-19 pandemic is amplifying opportunities and challenges from the digital transformation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

Report der Stiftung "New Direction", 2009 von Margret Thatcher als Think Tank europäischer Konservativer gegründet. Der Report enthält Beiträge u.a. zu den Themen Digitalisierung, Arbeitsmarkt, Digitalisierung, Roboter, Zukunft der Arbeit, Künstliche Intelligenz, Soziale Sicherung, Qualifikationsanforderungen, Plattformarbeit. (IAB)

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(2020): Gender equality index 2020. Digitalisation and the future of work. (Gender equality index …), Vilnius, 178 S. DOI:10.2839/79077

Abstract

"The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was a wake-up call for gender equality in Europe. It reminded us about everyday gender inequalities in our society that often go unnoticed – from the shortage of men working in the care sector to the reality of violence facing women in abusive relationships. While it will still take time to fully understand the consequences of COVID-19 for gender equality, it’s clear that it poses a serious threat to the fragile achievements made over the past decade. This year, the Index report focuses on the effects of digitalisation on the world of work and the consequences for gender equality. This topic is extremely relevant in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ways in which the working lives of women and men have been affected by it. New types of jobs and innovative ways of working through online platforms were analysed to gain an understanding of who is doing these jobs and whether they help or hinder gender equality. With a detailed analysis for the EU and each Member State, the Index shows country-level achievements and areas for improvement. More than ever, policymakers need the data that the Index provides. We hope that our findings will help Europe’s leaders to design future solutions that are inclusive and promote gender equality in our post-COVID-19 society." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This report examines digitalisation’s effects on science, technology and innovation and the associated consequences for policy. In varied and far-reaching ways, digital technologies are changing how scientists work, collaborate and publish. While examining these developments, this book also assesses the effects of digitalisation on longstanding policy themes, from access to publicly funded research data, to the diffusion of technology and its absorption by firms. New and emerging topics are also explored. These include the roles of artificial intelligence and blockchain in science and production, using digital technology to draw on the collective intelligence of the scientific community, advances in the digitalisation of biotechnology, and possible "dark sides" of digitalisation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"Digitale Technologien und Daten verändern unser Lebensumfeld. Menschen, Unternehmen und staatliche Stellen agieren, kommunizieren und operieren heute anders als in der Vergangenheit - und diese Veränderungen beschleunigen sich zusehends. Wie können wir das gewaltige Potenzial ausschöpfen, das digitale Technologien und Daten zur Steigerung von Wachstum und Lebensqualität in einer sich rasch wandelnden Welt bieten? Dieser Bericht soll Antworten auf diese Frage liefern. Er geht auf sieben Aspekte ein, bei denen die Regierungen - zusammen mit Bürgerinnen und Bürgern, Unternehmen und anderen betroffenen Akteuren - ansetzen können, um den digitalen Wandel zu gestalten und das Leben zu verbessern. In jedem dieser Bereiche zeigt der Bericht Chancen, Herausforderungen und Handlungsoptionen auf. Außerdem liefert er neue Erkenntnisse, Daten und Analysen sowie Empfehlungen für eine bessere Politik im digitalen Zeitalter." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"The new knowledge economy, centred on Information and Communication Technologies, together with AI / and robots, can free men and women from the mere execution of tasks and allow them to devote their energies to more satisfying and creative purposes. It can, however, also create mass unemployment or alienation of workers reduced to the role of subservient auxiliaries of a working process they can no longer control. Much depends on the philosophy that guides the new automated production processes: will it be a philosophy that aims solely at profit or one that values the participation of workers, care for the common good, and has a special concern for the poor and the marginalized?" (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2019): Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 33, H. 2, S. 3-30. DOI:10.1257/jep.33.2.3

Abstract

"We present a framework for understanding the effects of automation and other types of technological changes on labor demand, and use it to interpret changes in US employment over the recent past. At the center of our framework is the allocation of tasks to capital and labor -- the task content of production. Automation, which enables capital to replace labor in tasks it was previously engaged in, shifts the task content of production against labor because of a displacement effect. As a result, automation always reduces the labor share in value added and may reduce labor demand even as it raises productivity. The effects of automation are counterbalanced by the creation of new tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage. The introduction of new tasks changes the task content of production in favor of labor because of a reinstatement effect, and always raises the labor share and labor demand. We show how the role of changes in the task content of production -- due to automation and new tasks -- can be inferred from industry-level data. Our empirical decomposition suggests that the slower growth of employment over the last three decades is accounted for by an acceleration in the displacement effect, especially in manufacturing, a weaker reinstatement effect, and slower growth of productivity than in previous decades." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2019): Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor. (NBER working paper 25684), Cambrige, Mass., 67 S. DOI:10.3386/w25684

Abstract

"We present a framework for understanding the effects of automation and other types of technological changes on labor demand, and use it to interpret changes in US employment over the recent past. At the center of our framework is the allocation of tasks to capital and labor - the task content of production. Automation, which enables capital to replace labor in tasks it was previously engaged in, shifts the task content of production against labor because of a displacement effect. As a result, automation always reduces the labor share in value added and may reduce labor demand even as it raises productivity. The effects of automation are counterbalanced by the creation of new tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage. The introduction of new tasks changes the task content of production in favor of labor because of a reinstatement effect, and always raises the labor share and labor demand. We show how the role of changes in the task content of production - due to automation and new tasks - can be inferred from industry-level data. Our empirical decomposition suggests that the slower growth of employment over the last three decades is accounted for by an acceleration in the displacement effect, especially in manufacturing, a weaker reinstatement effect, and slower growth of productivity than in previous decades." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Aepli, Manuel (2019): Technological change and occupation mobility: A task-based approach to horizontal mismatch. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 361), Maastricht, 48 S.

Abstract

"Technological change and its impacts on labour markets are a much-discussed topic in economics. Economists generally assume that new technology penetrating the labour market shifts firms' task demand. Given individuals' acquired and supplied skills, these task demand shifts potentially foster horizontal skill mismatches, e.g. individuals not working in their learned occupations. In this paper, I first analyse the relation between task shifting technological change and individuals' horizontal mismatch incidence. Second, I estimate individuals' mismatch wage penalties triggered by this relation. The present paper proposes an instrumental variable (IV) approach to map this mechanism and to obtain causal estimates on mismatch wage penalties. Applying this empirical strategy yields a wage penalty of roughly 12% for horizontally mismatched individuals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn (2019): Digitalization and the future of work: Macroeconomic consequences. (IZA discussion paper 12428), Bonn, 24 S.

Abstract

"Computing power continues to grow at an enormous rate. Simultaneously, more and better data is increasingly available and Machine Learning methods have seen significant breakthroughs in the recent past. All this pushes further the boundary of what machines can do. Nowadays increasingly complex tasks are automatable at a precision which seemed infeasible only few years ago. The examples range from voice and image recognition, playing Go, to self-driving vehicles. Machines are able to perform more and more manual and also cognitive tasks that previously only humans could do. As a result of these developments, some argue that large shares of jobs are 'at risk of automation', spurring public fears of massive job-losses and technological unemployment. This chapter discusses how new digital technologies might affect the labor market in the near future. First, the chapter discusses estimates of automation potentials, showing that many estimates are severely upward biased because they ignore that workers in seemingly automatable occupations already take over hard-to-automate tasks. Secondly, it highlights that these numbers only refer to what theoretically could be automated and that this must not be equated with job- losses or employment effects - a mistake that is done often in the public debate. Thirdly, the chapter develops scenarios on how digitalization is likely to affect the German labor market in the next five years and derives implications for policy makers on how to shape the future of work. Germany is an interesting case to study, as it is a developed country at the technological frontier. In particular, the main challenge will not be the number, but the structure of jobs and the corresponding need for supply side adjustments to meet the shift in demand both within and between occupations and sectors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Atack, Jeremy, Robert A. Margo & Paul W. Rhode (2019): "Automation" of manufacturing in the late nineteenth century. The hand and machine labor study. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 33, H. 2, S. 51-70. DOI:10.1257/jep.33.2.51

Abstract

"Recent advances in artificial intelligence and robotics have generated a robust debate about the future of work. An analogous debate occurred in the late nineteenth century when mechanization first transformed manufacturing. We analyze an extraordinary dataset from the late nineteenth century, the Hand and Machine Labor study carried out by the US Department of Labor in the mid-1890s. We focus on transitions at the task level from hand to machine production, and on the impact of inanimate power, especially of steam power, on labor productivity. Our analysis sheds light on the ability of modern task-based models to account for the effects of historical mechanization." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))