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Auswirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland

Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt stehen seit der Ausbreitung des Coronavirus vor großen Herausforderungen. Zur Unterstützung von Beschäftigten und Unternehmen hatte der Bundestag im Eilverfahren u.a. einen leichteren Zugang zum Kurzarbeitergeld beschlossen. Dieses Themendossier stellt Einschätzungen aus Forschung und Politik zu den Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf den Arbeitsmarkt, die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und notwendige Maßnahmen in Deutschland zusammen.
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Measuring the economic risk of epidemics (2019)

    Noy, Ilan ; Park, Donghyun; Ferrarini, Benno; Doan, Nguyen ;

    Zitatform

    Noy, Ilan, Nguyen Doan, Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park (2019): Measuring the economic risk of epidemics. (CESifo working paper 8016), München, 18 S.

    Abstract

    "We measure the economic risk of epidemics at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the epidemic hazard prediction, we use data from 2014-2019 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of an epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard (the zoonotic source of a possible epidemic), the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy's resilience (its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of epidemics is particularly high in most Africa, the Indian subcontinent, China, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad-hoc (equal) weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, with one based on an estimation algorithm using Disability-Adjusted Life Years associated with communicable diseases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The economics of infectious diseases (2018)

    Hauck, Katharina ;

    Zitatform

    Hauck, Katharina (2018): The economics of infectious diseases. In: Oxford research encyclopedias. Economics and finance Oxford: Oxford University Press, Oxford, Oxford University Press S. 1-30. DOI:10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.251

    Abstract

    "Economics can make immensely valuable contributions to our understanding of infectious disease transmission and the design of effective policy responses. The one unique characteristic of infectious diseases makes it also particularly complicated to analyze: the fact that it is transmitted from person to person. It explains why individuals’ behavior and externalities are a central topic for the economics of infectious diseases. Many public health interventions are built on the assumption that individuals are altruistic and consider the benefits and costs of their actions to others. This would imply that even infected individuals demand prevention, which stands in conflict with the economic theory of rational behavior. Empirical evidence is conflicting for infected individuals. For healthy individuals, evidence suggests that the demand for prevention is affected by real or perceived risk of infection. However, studies are plagued by underreporting of preventive behavior and non-random selection into testing. Some empirical studies have shown that the impact of prevention interventions could be far greater than one case prevented, resulting in significant externalities. Therefore, economic evaluations need to build on dynamic transmission models in order to correctly estimate these externalities. Future research needs are significant. Economic research needs to improve our understanding of the role of human behavior in disease transmission; support the better integration of economic and epidemiological modeling, evaluation of large-scale public health interventions with quasi-experimental methods, design of optimal subsidies for tackling the global threat of antimicrobial resistance, refocusing the research agenda toward underresearched diseases; and most importantly to assure that progress translates into saved lives on the ground by advising on effective health system strengthening." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data (2016)

    Adda, Jérôme ;

    Zitatform

    Adda, Jérôme (2016): Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases. Evidence from High Frequency Data. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Jg. 131, H. 2, S. 891-941. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjw005

    Abstract

    "Viruses are a major threat to human health, and - given that they spread through social interactions - represent a costly externality. This article addresses three main questions: (i) what are the unintended consequences of economic activity on the spread of infections; (ii) how efficient are measures that limit interpersonal contacts; (iii) how do we allocate our scarce resources to limit the spread of infections? To answer these questions, we use novel high frequency data from France on the incidence of a number of viral diseases across space, for different age groups, over a quarter of a century. We use quasi-experimental variation to evaluate the importance of policies reducing interpersonal contacts such as school closures or the closure of public transportation networks. While these policies significantly reduce disease prevalence, we find that they are not cost-effective. We find that expansions of transportation networks have significant health costs in increasing the spread of viruses, and that propagation rates are pro-cyclically sensitive to economic conditions and increase with inter-regional trade." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk (2016)

    Fan, Victoria Y. ; Jamison, Dean T. ; Summers, Lawrence H.;

    Zitatform

    Fan, Victoria Y., Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence H. Summers (2016): The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk. (NBER working paper 22137), Cambridge, Mass., 24S. DOI:10.3386/w22137

    Abstract

    "Estimates of the long-term annual cost of global warming lie in the range of 0.2-2% of global income. This high cost has generated widespread political concern and commitment as manifested in the Paris agreements of December, 2015. Analyses in this paper suggest that the expected annual cost of pandemic influenza falls in the same range as does that of climate change although toward the low end. In any given year a small likelihood exists that the world will again suffer a very severe flu pandemic akin to the one of 1918. Even a moderately severe pandemic, of which at least 6 have occurred since 1700, could lead to 2 million or more excess deaths. World Bank and other work has assessed the probable income loss from a severe pandemic at 4-5% of global GNI. The economics literature points to a very high intrinsic value of mortality risk, a value that GNI fails to capture. In this paper we use findings from that literature to generate an estimate of pandemic cost that is inclusive of both income loss and the cost of elevated mortality. We present results on an expected annual basis using reasonable (although highly uncertain) estimates of the annual probabilities of pandemics in two bands of severity. We find: 1. Expected pandemic deaths exceed 700,000 per year worldwide with an associated annual mortality cost of estimated at $490 billion. We use published figures to estimate expected income loss at $80 billion per year and hence the inclusive cost to be $570 billion per year or 0.7% of global income (range: 0.4-1.0%). 2. For moderately severe pandemics about 40% of inclusive cost results from income loss. For severe pandemics this fraction declines to 12%: the intrinsic cost of elevated mortality becomes completely dominant. 3. The estimates of mortality cost as a % of GNI range from around 1.6% in lower-middle income countries down to 0.3% in high-income countries, mostly as a result of much higher pandemic death rates in lower-income environments. 4. The distribution of pandemic severity has an exceptionally fat tail: about 95% of the expected cost results from pandemics that would be expected to kill over 7 million people worldwide." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis (2016)

    Verikios, George ; Sullivan, Maura; Woo, Gordon; Stojanovski, Pane; Giesecke, James ;

    Zitatform

    Verikios, George, Maura Sullivan, Pane Stojanovski, James Giesecke & Gordon Woo (2016): Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza. A Scenario Analysis. In: The World Economy, Jg. 39, H. 8, S. 1225-1255. DOI:10.1111/twec.12296

    Abstract

    "We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence - low infectiousness event and a low virulence - high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic (2007)

    James, Steven; Sargent, Tim;

    Zitatform

    James, Steven & Tim Sargent (2007): The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic. (Working paper. Department of Finance 2007-04), Ottawa, 88 S.

    Abstract

    "In this paper we examine the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on the economy. We use historical data to understand how past pandemics affected human health, human behaviour and the economy while also accounting for subsequent relevant economic and social changes. We find that previous pandemics and SARS had limited economic effects and that a 1918-type pandemic would likely reduce annual GDP growth by up to 1 percentage point in the pandemic year. Economic and social changes since 1918 would not likely imply significantly greater impacts today than in 1918. The demand and absenteeism impacts of a pandemic would be unevenly distributed across sectors. Small work units in which employees engage in a high degree of social interaction could expect higher peak absenteeism than larger work units with less social interaction. The natural resilience of market economies as well as reallocations of spending across sectors and across time would tend to mitigate the aggregate economic effects of a pandemic. If a pandemic were to occur, human suffering and loss of life would outweigh economic concerns." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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