Zitatform

(2020): World Economic Outlook, April 2020. Chapter 1: The Great Lockdown. (World economic outlook), Washington, DC, IX, 25 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by -3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008-09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): COVID-19 crisis and the informal economy. Immediate responses and policy challenges. (ILO brief), Genf, 8 S.

Abstract

"This policy brief focuses on the immediate responses that countries can take to address the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on the informal economy at its early stages, while pointing to areas that will need sustained investment in the future in order to ensure well-being and decent work for workers and economic undertakings in the informal economy. This brief will be followed by another on mid- to long-term responses, once the rapid propagation phase of the virus has passed." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"Cedefop’s community of apprenticeship experts launched an internal consultation on how European countries are managing apprenticeships in the current health emergency due to the coronavirus pandemic. Twenty five experts contributed to this exercise from: Austria, Belgium (fr, fl, de), Bulgaria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK-England and UK-Wales. A synthesis of the information shared was produced. The experts expressed their individual professional opinion, not that of their institution or Cedefop’s." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): The impact of COVID-19 on women. (Policy brief / United Nations), 16 S.

Abstract

"The year 2020, marking the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Beijing Platform for Action, was intended to be ground-breaking for gender equality. Instead, with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic even the limited gains made in the past decades are at risk of being rolled back. The pandemic is deepening pre-existing inequalities, exposing vulnerabilities in social, political and economic systems which are in turn amplifying the impacts of the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The Monitor gives updated projections for the number of working hours lost globally as a result of the labour market disruption caused by COVID-19. It also looks at the devastating impact on 1.6 billion informal economy workers and more than 430 million enterprises worldwide." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated, while the highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels, even in the best scenario, and risks seeing continuing large scale job losses, warns the International Labour Organization (ILO). According to the ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work: 5th Edition, there was a 14 per cent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs (based on a 48-hour working week). This is a sharp increase on the previous Monitor’s estimate (issued on May 27), of a 10.7 per cent drop (305 million jobs)." (Author's Abstract, IAB-Doku)

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(2020): OECD employment outlook 2020. Worker Security and the COVID-19 Crisis. (OECD employment outlook), Paris, 338 S. DOI:10.1787/1686c758-en

Abstract

"The 2020 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook focuses on worker security and the COVID-19 crisis. Chapter 1 provides an initial assessment of the labour market consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting economic crisis. It also presents an overview of the emergency labour market and social policy measures implemented by OECD countries and discusses directions for further policy adaptation as countries move out of lockdown. Chapter 2 investigates the uneven access to unemployment benefits for workers in part-time and less stable jobs, which often accentuates the hardship they face in times of crisis, and discusses the difficult balance between work incentives and income security. Chapter 3 provides a comparative review of employment protection legislation (EPL) across OECD countries by developing a new version of the OECD's EPL indicators, which now include an improved assessment of regulations for collective redundancies, unfair dismissals and enforcement issues. Chapter 4 takes a fresh look at job polarisation, and in particular the hollowing out of jobs in middle-skill occupations. Finally, Chapter 5 examines the changing labour market outcomes for middle-educated vocational education and training graduates, whose labour market perspectives are challenged by the contraction of jobs in middle-skill occupations." (Author's Abstract, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"Since the first ILO Monitor, the COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated in terms of intensity and expanded its global reach. Full or partial lockdown measures are now affecting almost 2.7 billion workers, representing around 81 per cent of the world's workforce. In the current situation, businesses across a range of economic sectors are facing catastrophic losses, which threaten their operations and solvency, especially among smaller enterprises, while millions of workers are vulnerable to income loss and layoffs." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

(2020): Quarterly Review of Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) - March 2020. (Employment and social developments in Europe : Quarterly review), Brüssel, 38 S.

Abstract

"This is the first quarterly review since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and public health crisis, which has led to an abrupt change of employment developments and social outlook in the EU as well as globally. This review is based on the latest data available until the end of January 2020. It can hence not yet depict the most recent developments related to the pandemic and its socio-economic consequences. The available data show that developments until January 2020 have been positive, with 209 million people in employment in the EU in 2019, of which 160 million in the euro area. Compared to spring 2013, this meant 15 and 12 million, respectively, more jobs. In January 2020, in the EU there was about 2.1 million fewer young people unemployed compared to the peak of February 2013." (Authors's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"Was verbirgt sich hinter „SURE“ und warum schlägt die Kommission dieses Instrument vor? Das neue Instrument zur vorübergehenden Unterstützung bei der Minderung von Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiken in Ausnahmesituationen (SURE - Support mitigating Unemployment Risks in Emergency) soll dazu beitragen, durch die Coronavirus-Pandemie bedrohte Arbeitsplätze und Erwerbstätige zu schützen. Die finanzielle Unterstützung soll sich auf insgesamt bis zu 100 Mrd. EUR belaufen und den Mitgliedstaaten in Form von EU-Darlehen zu günstigen Bedingungen gewährt werden. Solche Darlehen sollen den Mitgliedstaaten dabei helfen, den plötzlichen Anstieg der öffentlichen Ausgaben zu bewältigen, der mit ihren Beschäftigungserhaltungsmaßnahmen einhergeht. Sie sollen es den Mitgliedstaaten insbesondere ermöglichen, die Kosten zu decken, die ihnen unmittelbar durch die Einführung oder Ausweitung nationaler Kurzarbeitsregelungen sowie ähnlicher Maßnahmen für Selbstständige entstehen, die sie in Reaktion auf die derzeitige Coronavirus-Pandemie ergriffen haben." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Noy, Ilan & Sharlan Shields (2019): The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic. A Retroactive Examination of Economic Costs. (ADB economics working paper series 591), Manila, 15 S. DOI:10.22617/WPS190469-2

Abstract

"The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic was the first epidemic of the 21st century to pose a threat to global health and generate considerable panic across the globe. Fortunately, due to the rapid containment of the epidemic, both the harm to the public’s health and economic losses were not as considerable as many feared they might be. After a short period of economic turmoil, lasting a few months, normal patterns of economic activity were resumed. However, during this period there were dramatic reductions in air travel and tourism, and leisure and/or hospitality services in the areas affected by SARS. These losses were driven by public avoidance, which contributed to a disproportionate aggregate disease prevention cost. This has led to concerns that an outbreak exhibiting higher mortality rates could result in a catastrophic impact on the global economy caused by even more drastic behavioral responses. These behavioral responses were related to individual perspectives about the risk of contraction and death, as well as the perceived costs and benefits of disease avoidance measures. How individuals form these avoidance responses has a significant role in determining the pathway of an epidemic. When situating these considerations within the trend of increasing emergence of zoonotic diseases and increasing globalization, analyses of the behavioral reaction to the SARS epidemic are potentially important. With this in mind, critical analysis of government intervention mechanisms is considered to address how cost-effective intervention might alter behavioral responses to lead to more positive outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Noy, Ilan, Nguyen Doan, Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park (2019): Measuring the economic risk of epidemics. (CESifo working paper 8016), München, 18 S.

Abstract

"We measure the economic risk of epidemics at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the epidemic hazard prediction, we use data from 2014-2019 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of an epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard (the zoonotic source of a possible epidemic), the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy's resilience (its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of epidemics is particularly high in most Africa, the Indian subcontinent, China, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad-hoc (equal) weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, with one based on an estimation algorithm using Disability-Adjusted Life Years associated with communicable diseases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Hauck, Katharina (2018): The economics of infectious diseases. In: Oxford research encyclopedias. Economics and finance Oxford: Oxford University Press, Oxford, Oxford University Press S. 1-30. DOI:10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.251

Abstract

"Economics can make immensely valuable contributions to our understanding of infectious disease transmission and the design of effective policy responses. The one unique characteristic of infectious diseases makes it also particularly complicated to analyze: the fact that it is transmitted from person to person. It explains why individuals’ behavior and externalities are a central topic for the economics of infectious diseases. Many public health interventions are built on the assumption that individuals are altruistic and consider the benefits and costs of their actions to others. This would imply that even infected individuals demand prevention, which stands in conflict with the economic theory of rational behavior. Empirical evidence is conflicting for infected individuals. For healthy individuals, evidence suggests that the demand for prevention is affected by real or perceived risk of infection. However, studies are plagued by underreporting of preventive behavior and non-random selection into testing. Some empirical studies have shown that the impact of prevention interventions could be far greater than one case prevented, resulting in significant externalities. Therefore, economic evaluations need to build on dynamic transmission models in order to correctly estimate these externalities. Future research needs are significant. Economic research needs to improve our understanding of the role of human behavior in disease transmission; support the better integration of economic and epidemiological modeling, evaluation of large-scale public health interventions with quasi-experimental methods, design of optimal subsidies for tackling the global threat of antimicrobial resistance, refocusing the research agenda toward underresearched diseases; and most importantly to assure that progress translates into saved lives on the ground by advising on effective health system strengthening." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Adda, Jérôme (2016): Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases. Evidence from High Frequency Data. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Jg. 131, H. 2, S. 891-941. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjw005

Abstract

"Viruses are a major threat to human health, and - given that they spread through social interactions - represent a costly externality. This article addresses three main questions: (i) what are the unintended consequences of economic activity on the spread of infections; (ii) how efficient are measures that limit interpersonal contacts; (iii) how do we allocate our scarce resources to limit the spread of infections? To answer these questions, we use novel high frequency data from France on the incidence of a number of viral diseases across space, for different age groups, over a quarter of a century. We use quasi-experimental variation to evaluate the importance of policies reducing interpersonal contacts such as school closures or the closure of public transportation networks. While these policies significantly reduce disease prevalence, we find that they are not cost-effective. We find that expansions of transportation networks have significant health costs in increasing the spread of viruses, and that propagation rates are pro-cyclically sensitive to economic conditions and increase with inter-regional trade." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Fan, Victoria Y., Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence H. Summers (2016): The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk. (NBER working paper 22137), Cambridge, Mass., 24S. DOI:10.3386/w22137

Abstract

"Estimates of the long-term annual cost of global warming lie in the range of 0.2-2% of global income. This high cost has generated widespread political concern and commitment as manifested in the Paris agreements of December, 2015. Analyses in this paper suggest that the expected annual cost of pandemic influenza falls in the same range as does that of climate change although toward the low end. In any given year a small likelihood exists that the world will again suffer a very severe flu pandemic akin to the one of 1918. Even a moderately severe pandemic, of which at least 6 have occurred since 1700, could lead to 2 million or more excess deaths. World Bank and other work has assessed the probable income loss from a severe pandemic at 4-5% of global GNI. The economics literature points to a very high intrinsic value of mortality risk, a value that GNI fails to capture. In this paper we use findings from that literature to generate an estimate of pandemic cost that is inclusive of both income loss and the cost of elevated mortality. We present results on an expected annual basis using reasonable (although highly uncertain) estimates of the annual probabilities of pandemics in two bands of severity. We find: 1. Expected pandemic deaths exceed 700,000 per year worldwide with an associated annual mortality cost of estimated at $490 billion. We use published figures to estimate expected income loss at $80 billion per year and hence the inclusive cost to be $570 billion per year or 0.7% of global income (range: 0.4-1.0%). 2. For moderately severe pandemics about 40% of inclusive cost results from income loss. For severe pandemics this fraction declines to 12%: the intrinsic cost of elevated mortality becomes completely dominant. 3. The estimates of mortality cost as a % of GNI range from around 1.6% in lower-middle income countries down to 0.3% in high-income countries, mostly as a result of much higher pandemic death rates in lower-income environments. 4. The distribution of pandemic severity has an exceptionally fat tail: about 95% of the expected cost results from pandemics that would be expected to kill over 7 million people worldwide." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Verikios, George, Maura Sullivan, Pane Stojanovski, James Giesecke & Gordon Woo (2016): Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza. A Scenario Analysis. In: The World Economy, Jg. 39, H. 8, S. 1225-1255. DOI:10.1111/twec.12296

Abstract

"We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence - low infectiousness event and a low virulence - high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

Zitatform

James, Steven & Tim Sargent (2007): The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic. (Working paper. Department of Finance 2007-04), Ottawa, 88 S.

Abstract

"In this paper we examine the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on the economy. We use historical data to understand how past pandemics affected human health, human behaviour and the economy while also accounting for subsequent relevant economic and social changes. We find that previous pandemics and SARS had limited economic effects and that a 1918-type pandemic would likely reduce annual GDP growth by up to 1 percentage point in the pandemic year. Economic and social changes since 1918 would not likely imply significantly greater impacts today than in 1918. The demand and absenteeism impacts of a pandemic would be unevenly distributed across sectors. Small work units in which employees engage in a high degree of social interaction could expect higher peak absenteeism than larger work units with less social interaction. The natural resilience of market economies as well as reallocations of spending across sectors and across time would tend to mitigate the aggregate economic effects of a pandemic. If a pandemic were to occur, human suffering and loss of life would outweigh economic concerns." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))