Zitatform

Sinn, Hans-Werner (2020): Der Corona-Schock. Wie die Wirtschaft überlebt. Freiburg i. Br.: Herder, 219 S.

Abstract

"Die Corona-Pandemie hatte einen historischen Einbruch der Wirtschaft zur Folge. Mit Hans-Werner Sinn äußert sich der bekannteste deutschsprachige Ökonom fundiert und streitbar dazu, wie wir diesen Crash überwinden oder ihn sogar dazu nutzen, um längst fällige Korrekturen der Wirtschaftspolitik in Deutschland und Europa vorzunehmen. Nur dann hat auch die europäische Idee, die im Augenblick gefährdet ist wie nie, eine Überlebenschance." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Snower, Dennis J. (2020): The socioeconomics of pandemics policy. (Global economy & development working paper 138), Washington, DC, 18 S.

Abstract

"In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the world have provided a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. While this policy is welcome in the short run, it does not address the underlying problem in the medium and long run. The reason is that the pandemic has not given rise to a generalized shortfall in aggregate demand. Rather, it has generated a Great Economic Mismatch, characterized by deficient demand for things requiring close physical interactions among people and deficient supply of things compatible with social distancing, where appropriate. Expansive macroeconomic policy can stimulate aggregate demand, but when social distancing is enforced, it will not stimulate production and consumption whenever this demand is satisfied through physically interactive activities. To overcome the Great Economic Mismatch, “read-aptation policies” are called for. In the medium run, these policies promote a redirection of resources to activities compatible with social distancing; in the long run, these policies make economies more resilient to unforeseen shocks that generate a Great Economic Mismatch. Once the pandemic is over, a more profound rethinking of decision-making—in public policy, business and civil society—is called for. First, decisionmakers will need to supplement the current focus on economic efficiency with greater emphasis on economic resilience. Second, economic policies and business strategies will need to focus less on incentives for selfish individuals and more on the mobilization of people’s prosocial motives. Finally, to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, policymakers at local, national and global levels will need to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, with the aid of two powerful tools that humans throughout history have used to coordinate their efforts: identity-shaping narratives and institutions of multi-level governance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Stepanok, Ignat (2020): Germany's trade with China at the beginning of the global COVID-19 pandemic (Series "COVID-19 Crisis: Consequences for the Labour Market"). In: IAB-Forum H. 01.10.2020 Nürnberg, o. Sz., 2020-09-29.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world economy in an unprecedented way, with international trade being no exception. Studying trade flows between China and Germany in February 2020 gives a clear picture of what happens when a major shock affects a single trading partner. It helps us learn what to expect from similar future, more geographically limited crisis situations. Studying this particular time window also gives a glimpse into the beginning of a global crisis, which holds the potential to lead to long-lasting changes in the international production networks and division of labour." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Stephany, Fabian, Niklas Stoehr, Philipp Darius, Leonie Neuhäuser, Ole Teutloff & Fabian Braesemann (2020): The CoRisk-Index: A data-mining approach to identify industry-specific risk assessments related to COVID-19 in real-time. Version 1.2 - 30th March 2020. (arXiv papers), 20 S. DOI:10.48550/arXiv.2003.12432

Abstract

"While the coronavirus spreads around the world, governments are attempting to reduce contagion rates at the expense of negative economic effects. Market expectations have plummeted, foreshadowing the risk of a global economic crisis and mass unemployment. Governments provide huge financial aid programmes to mitigate the expected economic shocks. To achieve higher effectiveness with cyclical and fiscal policy measures, it is key to identify the industries that are most in need of support. In this study, we introduce a data-mining approach to measure the industry-specific risks related to COVID-19. We examine company risk reports filed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This data set allows for a real-time analysis of risk assessments. Preliminary findings suggest that the companies' awareness towards corona-related business risks is ahead of the overall stock market developments by weeks. The risk reports differ substantially between industries, both in magnitude and in nature. Based on natural language processing techniques, we can identify corona-related risk topics and their perceived relevance for different industries. Our approach allows to distinguish the industries by their reported risk awareness towards COVID-19. The preliminary findings are summarised an online index. The CoRisk-Index tracks the industry-specific risk assessments related to the crisis, as it spreads through the economy. The tracking tool could provide relevant empirical data to inform models on the immediate economic effects of the crisis. Such complementary empirical information could help policy-makers to effectively target financial support and to mitigate the economic shocks of the current crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Wachter, Till von (2020): The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 34, H. 4, S. 168-194. DOI:10.1257/jep.34.4.168

Abstract

"Unlucky young workers entering the labor market in recessions suffer a range of medium- to long-term consequences. This paper summarizes the findings of the growing empirical literature on this subject and uses it to assess economic models of career development. The literature finds large initial effects on earnings, labor supply, and wages that tend to fade after ten to fifteen years in the labor market, and that are accompanied by changes in occupation, job mobility, and employer characteristics. Adverse initial labor market entry also has persistent effects on a range of social outcomes, including timing and completed fertility, marriage and divorce, criminal activities, attitudes, and risky alcohol consumption. There is also evidence that early exposure to depressed labor market lowers health and raises mortality in middle age, patterns accompanied by a reopening of earnings gaps." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): Workforce Principles for the COVID-19 Pandemic. Stakeholder Capitalism in a Time of Crisis. White paper. Cologny/Geneva, 6 S.

Abstract

"As organizations address the longer-term implications of COVID-19, it is imperative to focus on the needs of all stakeholders — from customers to suppliers to shareholders and, specifically, employees to ensure no one is left behind. This crisis presents an opportunity to take bold actions and show leadership and solidarity by applying the principles and guidelines set out in this document to better balance short-term crisis measures against the medium- and long-term objectives of responsible employers. These actions can include protecting salaries and benefits or providing learning opportunities to make progress against reskilling and workforce transformation objectives. Such an approach enables organizations to earn the trust of employees and unlock the discretionary effort needed to move the organization forward in turbulent times." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Winters, Jutta; Regina Konle-Seidl (interviewte Person) (2020): Short-time work in Europe: Rescue in the coronavirus crisis? An interview with IAB researcher Regina Konle-Seidl (Series "COVID-19 Crisis: Consequences for the Labour Market") (Interview). In: IAB-Forum H. 25.06.2020, o. Sz., 2020-06-23.

Abstract

"The coronavirus pandemic is keeping the economy on edge. To overcome the crisis, 33 of 36 OECD countries are now using short-time working schemes. All are pursuing the same goal of avoiding redundancies and retaining jobs. While the objective is the same in all countries, each county nevertheless tries to balance out a high use of the instrument and low deadweight effects and abuse. The legal requirements vary considerably across European countries. In an interview, the IAB researcher Regina Konle-Seidl explains the most important differences, discusses the advantages and disadvantages of short-time work, draws lessons from the use of this instrument in earlier times of crisis, and depicts first developments of short-time work and unemployment figures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria, Penny Mealy, Anton Pichler, François Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer (2020): Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective. In: Covid economics H. 6, S. 65-103.

Abstract

"We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyze the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labor Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 22% of the US economy's GDP, jeopardise 24% of jobs and reduce total wage income by 17%. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to have output constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply and demandside shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks – we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): Coronavirus: The world economy at risk. OECD Interim Economic Assessment. (OECD economic outlook Interim Report March 2020), Paris, 15 S. DOI:10.1787/7969896b-en

Abstract

"Covid-19 is spreading from China to other regions causing human suffering and economic disruption. It is raising health concerns and the risk of wider restrictions on the movement of people, goods and services, falls in business and consumer confidence and slowing production. The Interim Outlook presents both a best-case scenario in which the extent of the coronavirus is broadly contained and a “domino” prospect of contagion that is more widespread. In both cases, the OECD calls on governments to act immediately to limit the spread of the coronavirus, protect people and businesses from its effects and shore up demand in the economy." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): COVID-19 and world of work. Impacts and responses. (International Labour Organization note), Genf, 15 S.

Abstract

"The world of work is being profoundly affected by the global virus pandemic. In addition to the threat to public health, the economic and social disruption threatens the long-term livelihoods and wellbeing of millions. The ILO and its constituents – Governments, workers and employers – will play a crucial role in combating the outbreak, ensuring the safety of individuals and the sustainability of businesses and jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): Wie kann die Arbeitslosenkurve abgeflacht werden? Strategien zur Einkommensstützung und zur Förderung einer raschen Arbeitsmarkterholung. (Tackling coronavirus (COVID-19): Contributing to a global effort), Paris, 19 S.

Abstract

"Dieses Themenpapier analysiert, welche Rolle arbeitsplatzerhaltende Maßnahmen, einschließlich Kurzarbeitsregelungen, und das Arbeitslosenversicherungssystem spielen, um die Erwerbseinkommen der Arbeitskräfte zu stützen und sicherzustellen, dass sich die Beschäftigung rasch erholt, sobald der durch COVID-19 ausgelöste Shutdown nicht systemrelevanter Wirtschaftsbereiche gelockert wird. Angesichts der großen Ungewissheit hinsichtlich der längerfristigen Folgen der Corona-Krise für die Ressourcenreallokation zwischen den einzelnen Wirtschaftsbereichen und Unternehmen besteht die Herausforderung darin, diejenigen Arbeitsplätze zu erhalten, die auf mittlere Sicht tragfähig sind. Zugleich muss es Arbeitskräften in angeschlagenen Unternehmen und Branchen ermöglicht werden, in jene mit besseren Wachstumsaussichten zu wechseln. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden eine Reihe von Politikoptionen benannt, die auf ein gesundes Verhältnis zwischen Arbeitsplatzerhaltung und Reallokation abzielen, indem die Parameter bestehender Maßnahmen dem Verlauf der Corona-Krise entsprechend angepasst werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"The world of work is being profoundly affected by the global virus pandemic. In addition to the threat to public health, the economic and social disruption threatens the long-term livelihoods and wellbeing of millions. The ILO and its constituents – Governments, workers and employers – will play a crucial role in combating the outbreak, ensuring the safety of individuals and the sustainability of businesses and jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): Wirtschaft stellt sich auf Leben mit dem Virus ein. In: Konjunktur aktuell, Jg. 8, H. 2, S. 26-62.

Abstract

"Die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich aufgrund der Corona-Pandemie in einer tiefen Rezession. Der Produktionseinbruch dürfte weltweit im ersten Halbjahr 2020 deutlich tiefer sein als infolge der Finanzkrise im Winterhalbjahr 2008/2009. Auch die deutsche Wirtschaft wurde von der Pandemie schwer getroffen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2020 um 5,1% sinken und im kommenden Jahr um 3,2% zulegen. In Ostdeutschland dürfte der Einbruch der Wirtschaft infolge der Corona-Pandemie mit 3,2% im Jahr 2020 schwächer ausfallen als in Gesamtdeutschland." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter)

Zitatform

(2020): OECD-Wirtschaftsausblick 2020, Ausgabe 1 (Kurzfassung). In: OECD-Wirtschaftsausblick H. 107, S. 1-222. DOI:10.1787/e0331726-de

Abstract

"In ihrem Wirtschaftsausblick analysiert die OECD zweimal jährlich die wichtigsten wirtschaftlichen Trends und die Aussichten für die kommenden zwei Jahre. Der Wirtschaftsausblick liefert einen in sich stimmigen Satz von Projektionen zu gesamtwirtschaftlicher Produktion, Beschäftigung, Preisentwicklung, Haushaltssalden und Leistungsbilanzen. Die Analysen und Projektionen erstrecken sich auf alle OECD-Mitgliedsländer sowie ausgewählte Nichtmitgliedsländer. Diese deutschsprachige Ausgabe enthält eine Gesamtbeurteilung der Wirtschaftslage, eine Reihe von Themenpapieren zu makroökonomischen und strukturpolitischen Fragen im Zusammenhang mit der Corona-Pandemie sowie ein Kapitel, in dem die Entwicklungen und Projektionen für 15 ausgewählte OECD-Mitgliedsländer und Nichtmitgliedsländer zusammengefasst sind." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"The unfolding COVID-19 crisis is challenging people, households and firms in unprecedented ways. Containing the pandemic and protecting people is the top priority. But disrupted supply chains, containment measures that are limiting economic and social interactions and falling demand put people's jobs and livelihoods at risk. An immediate employment and social-policy response is needed. Reducing workers' exposure to COVID-19 in the workplace and ensuring access to income support for sick and quarantined workers are essential. Working parents need help with unforeseen care needs as schools are closing and elderly relatives are particularly vulnerable. Short-time work schemes can help protect jobs and provide relief to struggling companies, as evidenced during the last financial and economic crisis. Workers who lose their jobs and incomes, including those in non-standard forms of employment, need income support. As companies are suffering from a sharp drop in demand, rapid financial support through grants or credits can help them bridge liquidity gaps. Many affected countries introduced or announced bold measures over the last days and weeks, often with a focus on supporting the most vulnerable who are bearing a disproportionate share of the burden. This note, and the accompanying policy table, contributes to evidence-sharing on the role and effectiveness of various policy tools." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The devastating losses in working hours caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have brought a “massive” drop in labour income for workers around the world, says the International Labour Organization (ILO) in its latest assessment of the effects of the pandemic on the world of work. Global labour income is estimated to have declined by 10.7 per cent, or US$ 3.5 trillion, in the first three quarters of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. This figure excludes income support provided through government measures. The biggest drop was in lower-middle income countries, where the labour income losses reached 15.1 per cent, with the Americas the hardest hit region at 12.1 per cent. The ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Sixth edition , says that the global working hour losses in the first nine months of 2020 have been “considerably larger” than estimated in the previous edition of the Monitor (issued on 30 June). " (Author's Abstract, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"In ihrer am 13. Februar 2020 veröffentlichten Winterprognose prognostizierte die Europäische Kommission für 2020 und 2021 ein gedämpftes BIP-Wachstum in der EU und im Euro-Währungsgebiet von 1,4 % bzw. 1,2 %. Angesichts der sehr spärlichen Daten, die zu diesem Zeitpunkt zur Verfügung standen, wurde in dieser Prognose von einem mäßigen vorübergehenden Schock ausgegangen, der auf der Annahme beruhte, dass die mittlerweile als Pandemie eingestufte Epidemie auf China beschränkt bliebe und im ersten Quartal 2020 ihren Höhepunkt erreichen würde, sodass nur sehr begrenzte weltweite Spillover-Effekte entstünden. Allerdings wurde in der Prognose darauf hingewiesen, dass die Ausbreitung des Virus ein erhebliches Abwärtsrisiko für die Weltwirtschaft und die europäische Wirtschaft darstellt. Das COVID-19-Virus hat inzwischen eine Pandemie verursacht, und die Kommissionsdienststellen haben neue Schätzungen der potenziellen wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen vorgenommen. Dabei handelt es sich nicht um eine Prognose, sondern um Typszenarien, die auf aktualisierten Annahmen und Modellbildungstechniken beruhen. Hier muss betont werden, dass in Bezug auf das Ausmaß der Auswirkungen der Krise auf die Wirtschaft nach wie vor große Unsicherheit besteht, da diese unter anderem von der Ausbreitung der Pandemie und der Fähigkeit der Behörden abhängen wird, rasch zu handeln, um die gesundheitlichen und wirtschaftlichen Folgen einzudämmen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"This Edition of the ILO Monitor highlights the urgent need for policy actions that take into account the impact of the crisis on young people so as to avoid losing the productive potential of a whole generation." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

(2020): Gender equality index 2020. Digitalisation and the future of work. (Gender equality index …), Vilnius, 178 S. DOI:10.2839/79077

Abstract

"The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was a wake-up call for gender equality in Europe. It reminded us about everyday gender inequalities in our society that often go unnoticed – from the shortage of men working in the care sector to the reality of violence facing women in abusive relationships. While it will still take time to fully understand the consequences of COVID-19 for gender equality, it’s clear that it poses a serious threat to the fragile achievements made over the past decade. This year, the Index report focuses on the effects of digitalisation on the world of work and the consequences for gender equality. This topic is extremely relevant in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ways in which the working lives of women and men have been affected by it. New types of jobs and innovative ways of working through online platforms were analysed to gain an understanding of who is doing these jobs and whether they help or hinder gender equality. With a detailed analysis for the EU and each Member State, the Index shows country-level achievements and areas for improvement. More than ever, policymakers need the data that the Index provides. We hope that our findings will help Europe’s leaders to design future solutions that are inclusive and promote gender equality in our post-COVID-19 society." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"Damit der Aufbau nachhaltig, gerecht, ausgewogen, inklusiv und fair für alle Mitgliedstaaten ist, schlägt die Europäische Kommission vor, ein neues Aufbauinstrument namens „Next Generation EU“ zu schaffen, das in einen leistungsstarken und modernen umgestalteten EU-Haushalt eingebettet ist." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)