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Trede, Mark & Michael Zimmermann (2020): Regional labour migration - Stylized facts for Germany. (CQR working papers 2020,93), Münster, 29 S.

Abstract

"We present stylized facts of the local German labour markets in a systematic way. Using a large German administrative dataset and newly available regional price level data, we study workers' biographies at the local level. Huge regional variation is documented in: unemployment rates and nominal as well as real wages. The distinction between urban and rural areas plays a substantial role. We show that the real wage gap between East and West Germany still persists 30 years after reunification whereas unemployment rates tend to converge. We investigate monthly worker flows across 328 regions (roughly equivalent to NUTS 3 regions or "Landkreise"). Unemployed workers in depressed regions are less likely to move to a new working place in another region than unemployed workers in prosperous regions. The most (and increasingly) mobile group are unemployed workers in dense and active regions. Employed workers are less willing to move and have procyclical fluctuations in their moving rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bachmann, Ronald, Merve Cim & Colin Green (2019): Long-run patterns of labour market polarisation. Evidence from German micro data. In: BJIR, Jg. 57, H. 2, S. 350-376. DOI:10.1111/bjir.12419

Abstract

"The past four decades have witnessed dramatic changes in the structure of employment. In particular, the rapid increase in computational power has led to large-scale reductions in employment in jobs that can be described as intensive in routine tasks. These jobs have been shown to be concentrated in middle-skill occupations. A large literature on labour market polarization characterizes and measures these processes at an aggregate level. However, to date, there is little information regarding the individual worker adjustment processes related to routine-biased technological change. Using an administrative panel dataset for Germany, we follow workers over an extended period of time and provide evidence of both the short-term adjustment process and medium-run effects of routine task-intensive job loss at an individual level. We initially demonstrate a marked, and steady, shift in employment away from routine, middle-skill, occupations. In subsequent analysis, we demonstrate how exposure to jobs with higher routine task content is associated with a reduced likelihood of being in employment in both the short term (after one year) and medium term (five years). This employment penalty to routineness of work has increased over the past four decades. More generally, we demonstrate that routine task work is associated with reduced job stability and more likelihood of experiencing periods of unemployment. However, these negative effects of routine work appear to be concentrated in increased employment to employment, and employment to unemployment transitions rather than longer periods of unemployment." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Bachmann, Ronald & Peggy Bechara (2019): The importance of two-sided heterogeneity for the cyclicality of labour market dynamics. In: The Manchester School, Jg. 87, H. 6, S. 794-820. DOI:10.1111/manc.12269

Abstract

"Using administrative data on individual workers' employment history and firms, we investigate the cyclicality of worker flows on the German labour market. Focusing on heterogeneities on both sides of the labour market, we find that small firms hire much more workers from unemployment than large firms, and that they do so at the very beginning of an economic expansion. Later on in the expansion, overall hirings more frequently result from direct job-to-job transitions to larger firms. Transitions from unemployment to employment at large firms are generally found to be more (pro-)cyclical. However, this stylized fact disappears when the composition of the workforce is controlled for." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Bradley, Jake & Alice Kügler (2019): Labor market reforms: an evaluation of the Hartz policies in Germany. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 113, H. April, S. 108-135. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.12.008

Abstract

"How do workers and firms respond to comprehensive labor market reforms? We use detailed micro data to analyze the German Hartz Reforms through the lens of a structural model of the labor market. These reforms aimed at reducing unemployment, by increasing working hour flexibility, job matching and work incentives. In our setting, reforms directly affect the model parameters, which are estimated using matched data on 430,000 workers in 340,000 firms. Contrary to previous findings, our analysis shows that, although the reforms shortened the typical duration of unemployment, they did not reduce unemployment as a whole and led to a decline in wages. Low-skilled workers suffered the most in terms of employment and wage losses. Furthermore, we decompose the contribution of each reform wave to employment and wage changes, finding that the reduction in generosity of unemployment benefits was the principle driver in reducing wages." (Author's abstract, © 2019 Elsevier) ((en))

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(2019): Fachkräfte für den Landkreis Marburg-Biedenkopf. Wahrnehmung, Attraktivität und Potentiale. Marburg an der Lahn, 106 S.

Abstract

"Im Zeitraum März bis Oktober 2017 führte die Arbeitsgruppe 'Wirtschaftsgeographie und Standortforschung' am Fachbereich Geographie an der Philipps-Universität Marburg eine Untersuchung zur Mobilität von Fachkräften und den Eigenschaften des Landkreises Marburg-Biedenkopf durch. Die Untersuchung wurde im Auftrag des Kreisausschusses Marburg-Biedenkopf, der IHK Kassel-Marburg, der IHK Lahn-Dill, der Handwerkskammer Kassel, der Kreishandwerkerschaft Marburg, der Kreishandwerkerschaft Biedenkopf und der Agentur für Arbeit Marburg durchgeführt. Die Zielsetzung der Auftraggeber ist es, eine geeignete Strategie zu entwickeln, um Fachkräfte in der Region zu halten und für die Region zu gewinnen.
Die vorliegende Studie der Arbeitsgruppe 'Wirtschaftsgeographie und Standortforschung' liefert dafür die notwendigen grundlegenden Kenntnisse zum Migrationsverhalten von Fachkräften. Erstens werden die regionalen Eigenschaften, die Fachkräften wichtig sind, untersucht. Zweitens wird die Bereitschaft von verschiedenen Personengruppen analysiert, in den Landkreis Marburg-Biedenkopf zu ziehen oder in diesem zu bleiben. Drittens werden die Innen- und Außenwahrnehmung des Landkreises untersucht und die spezifischen Eigenschaften der Region ermittelt. Bei den Untersuchungen wird zwischen der Stadt Marburg und dem restlichen Landkreis differenziert, da deutliche Unterschiede in den Eigenschaften und der Wahrnehmung vorliegen. Der vorliegende Bericht präsentiert und erörtert die Ergebnisse." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Böhm, Michael J., Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Felix Schran (2019): Occupation growth, skill prices, and wage inequality. (IZA discussion paper 12647), Bonn, 56 S.

Abstract

"This paper studies the relationship between changes in occupational employment, occupational wages, and rising overall wage inequality. Using long-running administrative panel data with detailed occupation codes, we first document that in all occupations, entrants and leavers earn lower wages than stayers. This empirical fact suggests substantial skill selection effects that are negative for growing occupations and positive for shrinking ones. We develop and estimate a model for prices paid per unit of skill in occupations, which incorporates occupation-specific skill accumulation over the career and endogenous switching across many occupations. Our results shed light on two important puzzles in prior literature. First, consistent with leading explanations for occupational employment changes, price and employment growth are positively related. Strong counteracting skill changes along the lines of our new empirical fact explain why occupational wages are unrelated to employment growth. Second, skill prices establish a long-suspected quantitative connection between occupational changes and the surge in wage inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Edler, Susanne, Peter Jacobebbinghaus & Stefan Liebig (2019): Recall - A way to mitigate adverse effects of unemployment on earnings across occupations? In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 60, H. April, S. 39-51. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2019.01.003

Abstract

Die Autoren untersuchen die Löhne von Arbeitnehmern, die nach Entlassungen wieder beim früheren Arbeitgeber beschäftigt werden. Dabei erfolgt ein Vergleich zwischen verschiedenen Berufen. Der Beitrag trägt zur Erforschung der Einkommenseffekte von Arbeitslosigkeit im Lebenslauf bei. Grundlage für die empirische Untersuchung ist die Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) für die Jahre 2000, 2004 und 2008. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Löhne beim Wiedereinstieg mit der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit sinken. Eine Beschäftigung beim vorherigen Arbeitgeber vermindert die Einbußen, in Abhängigkeit von den beruflichen Qualifikationsanforderungen. (IAB)

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Eppelsheimer, Johann, Johann Eppelsheimer & Joachim Möller (2019): Human capital spillovers and the churning phenomenon: Analysing wage effects from gross in- and outflows of high-skilled workers. In: Regional science and urban economics, Jg. 78, H. September, S. 1-19., 2019-08-01. DOI:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.103461

Abstract

"The article estimates human capital externalities on wages originating from internal gross migration flows of high-skilled workers. We draw on rich administrative micro panel data that allow us to disentangle externalities from sorting and labour market supply and demand effects through an extensive set of time-varying fixed effects. We show that regional inflows and outflows of high-skilled workers occur simultaneously and that both are positively correlated. Given the existence of such a churning phenomenon, looking only at net migration flows might be misleading. Our econometric analysis indicates that inflows of high-skilled workers increase the wages of locals, whereas outflows decrease those wages. Although externalities from outflows outweigh those from inflows in the short run, the opposite holds in the long run. Our results suggest that human capital externalities are transmitted through the productivity effects of local personal networks, which, for newcomers, develop over time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fitzenberger, Bernd & Arnim Seidlitz (2019): The 2011 Break in the part-time indicator and the evolution of wage inequality in Germany. (ZEW discussion paper 2019-029), Mannheim, 19 S.

Abstract

"German social security records involve an indicator for part-time or full-time work. In 2011, the reporting procedure was changed suggesting that a fraction of worker recorded to be working full-time before the change were in fact part-time workers. This study develops a correction based on estimating the probability of being a part-time worker before and after the break. Using the correction, the paper confirms that the rise in wage inequality among full-time workers in West Germany until 2010 is not a spurious consequence of the misreporting of working time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fitzenberger, Bernd & Arnim Seidlitz (2019): The 2011 break in the part-time indicator and the evolution of wage inequality in Germany. (IZA discussion paper 12529), Bonn, 19 S.

Abstract

"German social security records involve an indicator for part-time or full-time work. In 2011, the reporting procedure was changed suggesting that a fraction of worker recorded to be working full-time before the change were in fact part-time workers. This study develops a correction based on estimating the probability of being a part-time worker before and after the break. Using the correction, the paper confirms that the rise in wage inequality among full-time workers in West Germany until 2010 is not a spurious consequence of the misreporting of working time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Geyer, Johannes, Peter Haan, Svenja Lorenz, Mona Pfister & Thomas Zwick (2019): The role of labor demand in the labor market effects of a pension reform. (DIW-Diskussionspapiere 1827), Berlin, 38 S.

Abstract

"This paper shows that labor demand plays an important role in the labor market reactions of older women affected by pension deductions for early retirement. Based on a large representative sample of the German workforce (SIAB), we calculate the consequences of individual financial incentive changes caused by a pension reform in Germany on employment, unemployment, and partial retirement. The reform reduces financial incentives for early retirement. In line with labor demand theory, we show that employers with a high share of older worker inflow compared with the share of younger worker inflow, employers in sectors with a high share of collective bargaining agreements, and employers in sectors with few investments in research and development are more responsive to their employees┐ demand to stay longer in the labor market. These employer groups mainly offer their older employees the option of staying longer in partial retirement instead of forcing them into unemployment before retirement." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Green, Andrew (2019): What is happening to middle skill workers? (OECD social, employment and migration working papers 230), Paris, 65 S. DOI:10.1787/a934f8fa-en

Abstract

"This report asks what is happening to middle-skill workers. Driven by mega trends such as automation, ageing and offshoring, the share of jobs whose wages placed them firmly in the middle of the wage distribution has been declining. Termed job polarisation, economists have observed the decline in the share of middle-skill jobs in the majority of OECD labour markets. One little explored question is where are these workers going? This report examines what workers are doing who in the past would have been employed in middle-skill jobs. The report first examines the traits of previous middle-skill workers to build a picture of the 'typical' middle-skill worker. Using this profile, the report next examines what types of jobs a worker with the typical middle-skill profile is taking, and how likely such a worker is to be working. The study then analyses different metrics of job stability and compensation to put in perspective what shifts out of middle-skill work imply for labour market outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Katja Hillmann (2019): Impact of welfare sanctions on employment and benefit receipt - considering top-up benefits and indirect sanctions. (HWWI research paper 189), Hamburg, 138 S.

Abstract

"This comprehensive study on UB-II-sanctions in Germany, applying PSM, presents the ex-post effects of welfare sanctions on several employment states for diverse (sub-)groups of employable welfare recipients. Besides unemployed, we also regard employed, and indirectly affected household members. The monthly updated ATT show the development of the sanction effect over two years. We find sanction effects as highly volatile over time and strongly dependent on individual factors and on circumstances like the timing of the sanction. In total, we suppose tendentially positive effects on the probabilities to enter employment and to exit welfare, at least in the short run. The positive effects tend to work stronger in the short run, and the negative effects tend to work stronger in the medium and long run. Hence, the shorter the time horizons of studies on welfare sanctions are, the more the positive effects are overrated systematically. Especially the frequently occurring cases with strongly negative slopes of cumulated ATT indicate that the early positive effects, mainly driven by people with good labor market perspectives, are at the cost of people with strongly detrimental sanction effects, even in the long run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Katja Hillmann (2019): Impact of welfare sanctions on the quality of subsequent employment - Wages, incomes, and employment stability. (HWWI research paper 190), Hamburg, 19 S.

Abstract

"This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of sanction effects on post-welfare employment quality in Europe using the outcome variables daily wage, yearly income, and covering job stability with the durations of three employment states: employed, unemployed, and supplementary benefit receipt. Applying PSM, we estimate the treatment effects (ATT) of UB-II-sanctions in Germany based on a rich administrative data set. Novelties of this study are the analysis of postwelfare sanction effects also for employed welfare recipients ('Aufstocker') and for indirectly affected employable household members. Our analyses reveal highly significant and strongly negative effects of benefit sanctions on the quality of post-welfare employment in the short and long run. In terms of income and employment stability we find a catch-up process which is by far not strong enough to compensate the loss within two years. For employed welfare recipients the negative effects on income and job stability even exceed the effects for unemployed. Particularly striking are the remarkably strong and highly significant negative effects on indirectly affected unemployed household members." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hohenleitner, Ingrid (2019): Work motivation and welfare sanctions. Evidence from German survey and administrative data. Hamburg, 254 S.

Abstract

"In this dissertation, two main research topics are addressed: Firstly, the two articles about work motivation and work values in Germany contribute to the question 'How important are non-monetary work incentives for a positive labor supply decision of the individuals?' Although both articles basically refer to the whole group of employable people, the second article (on work values) focuses mainly on (employable) welfare recipients. In Germany this concretely means recipients of unemployment benefits II (UB II).
Secondly, the three articles about welfare sanctions contribute to the question of whether existential economic pressure leads to the expected positive effects on labor supply, and which adverse side effects on the labor supply are entailed by that. As current welfare payments are defined to cover just the minimum subsistence level, welfare sanctions in the form of benefit cuts reduce the available income, by definition, to a level below the (socially defined) minimum subsistence level; hence, it is self-evident that welfare sanctions do have detrimental effects, at least on the sanctioned individuals. We restrict our analysis to economic aspects with a focus on the individuals' labor market outcomes.
The results of the five articles in this thesis provide strong evidence for two central findings, contributing to the superordinate research questions. First, the impact of non-monetary work motivation on individual's labor supply decision is generally underestimated. And work values are one of the central aspects that enhance non-pecuniary work incentives. Furthermore, the pessimistic expectations of a disastrous decrease in labor supply if monetary work incentives decrease are not verified by our findings. To the contrary, especially concerning the non-pecuniary work motivations of poorer people, of people with lower occupational level, and of people receiving welfare benefits, which by the majority are expected to be below-average, we find the opposite to be true: the majority of those people reveal non-pecuniary work incentives which are above the average. And strong work values are one of the factors that drive these findings.
In addition, we find that the existential economic pressure caused by welfare sanctions on the one hand, for part of the affected, indeed enhances their individual labor supply. But this tends to hold for people with already better chances on the labor market. For disadvantaged people, detrimental effects, even on their labor supply, exceeds possible positive effects. On the other hand, even the at times positive effect on labor supply, on average has strong adverse effects on the quality of employment, even in the long run." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Huber, Katrin (2019): The role of the career costs of children for the effect of public child care on fertility and maternal employment. (BGPE discussion paper 185), Nürnberg, 49 S.

Abstract

"This paper investigates whether the effects of affordable and easily available public child care on fertility and maternal employment depend on the career costs of children a woman faces. It builds on the idea that these costs vary by occupation and education. In a generalized Diff-in-Diff, I exploit the substantial variation between West German counties concerning intensity and speed of the provision of new child care slots for under-three-year-olds. The combination of county-level data on child care coverage with detailed individual-level information from the German social security records allows me to analyze so far unexplored effect heterogeneities by occupational groups. The results indicate that the average positive effects on fertility and maternal employment are driven by women who face relatively higher career costs of children: women in occupations with a steeper age-earnings profile, women who cannot be easily substituted at work and women with medium and high education level. The findings reveal that policies which reconcile family and work life are indeed more beneficial for women facing higher career costs of having children." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hutter, Christian & Enzo Weber (2019): A note on the effects of skill-biased technical change on productivity flattening. In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 39, H. 2, S. 772-784., 2019-03-29.

Abstract

"This paper examines the role of skill-biased technical change (SBTC) in the flattening of productivity growth and its effects on hours worked. We employ a structural macroeconometric analysis based on comprehensive micro data. The results show that 69 percent of the slowdown in productivity growth in Germany since the early 2000s can be explained by the flattening of SBTC. Furthermore, skill-biased technology shocks reduce hours, whereas skill-neutral technology shocks have a positive effect on hours in the long run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lehmann, Isabella Ruth (2019): Dimensions of regional disparities, effects of redistributive policies and their perceived justice. 139 S.

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Rahn, Daniela & Enzo Weber (2019): Patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany. In: Macroeconomic Dynamics, Jg. 23, H. 1, S. 322-357., 2016-11-30. DOI:10.1017/S1365100516001358

Abstract

"Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, this paper provides deeper insight into unemployment dynamics in Germany. We identify a technology shock and two policy shocks that play a central role in business cycle research. Accordingly, we enrich the discussion on the sources of unemployment dynamics by considering demand-side impulses. The worker reallocation process varies substantially with the identified shocks. The job-finding rate plays a larger role after a technology shock and a monetary policy shock, whereas the separation rate appears to be the dominant margin after a fiscal policy shock. Technology shocks turn out to be relatively important for variations in the transition rates. Regarding policy shocks, our results point toward fiscal interventions as a promising instrument but with several limitations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Saniter, Nils, Daniel D. Schnitzlein & Thomas Siedler (2019): Occupational knowledge and educational mobility. Evidence from the introduction of job information centers. In: Economics of education review, Jg. 69, H. April, S. 108-124. DOI:10.1016/j.econedurev.2018.12.009

Abstract

"This study examines the causal link between individuals' occupational knowledge and educational choices as well as labor market entry. We proxy occupational knowledge with mandatory visits to job information centers (JICs) in Germany while still attending school. Exogenous variation in the establishment of JICs makes it possible to estimate intention-to-treat effects in a difference-in-differences setup. Combining survey data with the data on JIC openings allows for detecting whether individuals benefited from the comprehensive information service. The results suggest that individuals who went to school in administrative districts with a JIC have higher educational attainments, experience educational upward mobility, and have a smoother transition to the labor market." (Author's abstract, © 2018 Elsevier) ((en))

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Schran, Felix (2019): Changing returns to occupational skill and women's wages. (IZA discussion paper 12661), Bonn, 29 S.

Abstract

"This paper investigates to what extent changes in the returns to occupational skill and declining occupational segregation have reduced wage inequality between men and women. As a first pass, I find that roughly 65% of the decline in the gender wage gap between 1985 and 2010 can be explained by a reduction in occupational segregation between the genders. The remaining 35% are explained by shifts in occupational wages which increased within occupations important for female employment, and declined in many occupations important for male employment such as producing occupations. Motivated by the central of Böhm et al. (2019) that average wages do not move as much as skill prices, I reestimate the part of the declining wage gap attributed to changes in (selection corrected) skill prices. The impact of movements in skill prices on the reduction in gender wage inequality was roughly 13 percentage points larger than the impact of changes in average wages alone. Similar findings hold when decomposing the rise in the proportion of women at higher percentiles of the wage distribution and vice versa for lower percentiles. This underscores the importance of accounting for selection effects in decompositions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2019): Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20. (Jahresgutachten / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2019/20), Wiesbaden, XVII, 374, X, 152 S.

Abstract

"In Deutschland ist der lang anhaltende Aufschwung vorerst zu einem Ende gekommen. Diese Entwicklung spiegelt zum einen die globale konjunkturelle Abkühlung wider, zum anderen könnten sich verschiedene strukturelle Faktoren niederschlagen, die das Wachstum behindern. Zudem bestehen erhebliche Risiken für die weitere Entwicklung. Insbesondere eine Eskalation der Handelskonflikte würde die exportorientierte deutsche Wirtschaft empfindlich treffen. Vor dem Hintergrund der verhaltenen konjunkturellen Aussichten und des Strukturwandels, insbesondere aufgrund des technologischen Fortschritts im Zuge der Digitalisierung und des notwendigen Aufbruchs in eine neue Klimapolitik, ist die Wirtschaftspolitik gefordert, das Wachstumspotenzial der deutschen Volkswirtschaft zu stärken." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Antonczyk, Dirk, Thomas DeLeire & Bernd Fitzenberger (2018): Polarization and rising wage inequality. Comparing the U.S. and Germany. In: Econometrics, Jg. 6, H. 2, S. 1-33., 2018-01-01. DOI:10.3390/econometrics6020020

Abstract

"Since the late 1970s, wage inequality has increased strongly both in the U.S. and Germany but the trends have been different. Wage inequality increased along the entire wage distribution during the 1980s in the U.S. and since the mid 1990s in Germany. There is evidence for wage polarization in the U.S. in the 1990s, and the increase in wage inequality in Germany was restricted to the top of the distribution before the 1990s. Using an approach developed by MaCurdy and Mroz (1995) to separate age, time, and cohort effects, we find a large role played by cohort effects in Germany, while we find only small cohort effects in the U.S. Employment trends in both countries are consistent with polarization since the 1990s. The evidence is consistent with a technology-driven polarization of the labor market, but this cannot explain the country specific differences." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bachmann, Ronald & Rahel Felder (2018): Die Erfassung von Minijobmeldungen in den Integrierten Erwerbsbiografien (IEB). Sonderauswertung im Auftrag der Geschäfts- und Informationsstelle für den Mindestlohn. (RWI-Materialien 125), Essen, 7 S.

Abstract

"Diese Kurzstudie beschäftigt sich mit der Erfassung und Häufigkeit von geringfügiger Beschäftigung in der IEB. Sie geht dabei der Frage nach, inwiefern Personen mit längeren Pausen der Beschäftigung und somit der Verdienstzahlung, sogenannte Springer, die Angaben auf Basis der BA-Statistik bezüglich der Anzahl von Minijobs beeinflussen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Bachmann, Ronald, Bernhard Boockmann, Merve Cim, Rahel Felder, Hanna Frings, Laura Janisch, Sandra Schaffner, Jochen Späth & Marcus Tamm (2018): Vergleich von Datenquellen für eine Analyse von Übergängen am Arbeitsmarkt. Studie im Auftrag der Mindestlohnkommission. Endbericht. Essen, 100 S.

Abstract

"Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es zu klären, welche Datensätze im Rahmen von Evaluationsstudien zu den Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns für die Analyse von Übergängen auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt geeignet sind. Die Studie untersucht daher insbesondere, für welche Übergänge ausreichend Fallzahlen vorhanden sind, um kausale Analysen durchzuführen - im Unterschied zu deskriptiven Analysen, für die in der Regel geringere Fallzahlen hinreichend sind, die aber gleichzeitig eine eingeschränktere Aussagekraft aufweisen. Die untersuchten Arbeitsmarktübergänge beziehen sich auf Transitionen von Personen zwischen verschiedenen Arbeitsmarktstatus (Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit etc.). Hierzu werden die folgenden Datensätze analysiert: Die Integrierten Erwerbsbiografien (IEB) und der Mikrozensus (nur in Ergänzung zur IEB), das Panel Arbeitsmarkt und Soziale Sicherung (PASS), das Sozio-oekonomische Panel (SOEP), und das Nationale Bildungspanel (NEPS).
Die Ergebnisse der Studie zeigen, dass die IEB bzw. die Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) für die kausale Untersuchung von Arbeitsmarktübergängen im Rahmen von Mindestlohnevaluationen grundsätzlich geeignet ist, wobei das Fehlen von Angaben zu Arbeitsstunden eine Einschränkung darstellt. Eine deutliche Verbesserung dieser Situation ließe sich durch eine Anreicherung der IEB-Daten durch Angaben zu gearbeiteten Stunden auf individueller Ebene erzielen. Die Datensätze PASS, SOEP und NEPS bieten sich aufgrund geringer Fallzahlen nur in sehr eingeschränktem Maße für kausale Untersuchungen von Arbeitsmarktübergängen an. Nichtsdestotrotz können PASS, SOEP und NEPS für deskriptive Untersuchungen zum Thema Mindestlohn eingesetzt werden. Hierbei sollte in Forschungsarbeiten z.B. anhand von Konfidenzintervallen jedoch dargestellt werden, wie präzise die Berechnungen auf Grundlage der jeweiligen Datensätze durchgeführt werden können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bachmann, Ronald, Merve Cim & Colin Green (2018): Long-run patterns of labour market polarisation. Evidence from German micro data. (Ruhr economic papers 748), Essen, 38 S.

Abstract

"The past four decades have witnessed dramatic changes in the structure of employment. In particular, the rapid increase in computational power has led to large-scale reductions in employment in jobs that can be described as intensive in routine tasks. These jobs have been shown to be concentrated in middle skill occupations. A large literature on labour market polarisation characterises and measures these processes at an aggregate level. However to date there is little information regarding the individual worker adjustment processes related to routine-biased technological change. Using an administrative panel data set for Germany, we follow workers over an extended period of time and provide evidence of both the short-term adjustment process and medium-run effects of routine task intensive job loss at an individual level. We initially demonstrate a marked, and steady, shift in employment away from routine, middleskill, occupations. In subsequent analysis, we demonstrate how exposure to jobs with higher routine task content is associated with a reduced likelihood of being in employment in both the short term (after one year) and medium term (five years). This employment penalty to routineness of work has increased over the past four decades. More generally, we demonstrate that routine task work is associated with reduced job stability and more likelihood of experiencing periods of unemployment. However, these negative effects of routine work appear to be concentrated in increased employment to employment, and employment to unemployment transitions rather than longer periods of unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bachmann, Ronald, Rahel Felder, Sandra Schaffner & Marcus Tamm (2018): Some (maybe) unpleasant arithmetic in minimum wage evaluations - the role of power, significance and sample size. (Ruhr economic papers 774), Essen, 23 S. DOI:10.4419/86788900

Abstract

"In diesem Beitrag wird die Bedeutung des Stichprobenumfangs für die Bewertung der Effekte von Mindestlöhnen diskutiert. Wir zeigen zunächst, welche Stichprobengrößen notwendig sind, um zuverlässige Aussagen über die Auswirkungen von Mindestlöhnen auf binäre Ergebnisse zu machen, und zweitens, wie man diese Stichprobengrößen bestimmt. Dies ist besonders wichtig bei der Interpretation statistisch insignifikanter Effekte, die auf (i) das Fehlen eines wahren Effekts oder (ii) mangelnde statistische Power zurückzuführen sein könnten, welche es unmöglich macht, einen Effekt zu erkennen, obwohl er existiert. Wir veranschaulichen dies für die Analyse von Arbeitsmarktübergängen anhand zweier Datensätze, die in der Mindestlohnforschung für Deutschland besonders wichtig sind, den Integrierten Erwerbsbiografien (IEB) und dem Sozioökonomischen Panel (SOEP)." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Baumgarten, Daniel, Michael Irlacher & Michael Koch (2018): Offshoring and non-monotonic employment effects across industries in general equilibrium. (Ruhr economic papers 746), Essen, 51 S.

Abstract

"We address the mismatch between existing theoretical models and standard empirical practice in the analysis of the labor market effects of offshoring. While theory focuses on one-sector or two-sector models, empirical studies exploit variation in offshoring across a large number of industries, typically including a linear offshoring term in the analysis. Thereby, these studies implicitly assume a monotonic relationship and ignore general-equilibrium effects across industries. We analyze the effects of offshoring across a continuum of industries with different shares of offshorable tasks that are linked through labor and capital markets in general oligopolistic equilibrium (GOLE). Our main result is that offshoring generates a hump-shaped pattern of employment changes across industries. While the relocation effect reduces employment in offshoring-intensive industries, labor demand in industries with a high prevalence of domestic production falls because of rising domestic wages and firm exits in general equilibrium. In the empirical part, we test the non-monotonic employment effects of offshoring across industries by focusing on Germany after the fall of the Iron Curtain. We find strong empirical support for the hump shape in the changes of employment across industries with different scopes for offshoring, which is almost entirely due to the extensive margin, underscoring the importance of establishment entry and exit. Finally, we discuss important implications for empirical and theoretical research arising from our study." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Biewen, Martin, Bernd Fitzenberger & Jakob de Lazzer (2018): The role of employment interruptions and part-time work for the rise in wage inequality. In: IZA journal of labor economics, Jg. 7, S. 1-34. DOI:10.1186/s40172-018-0070-y

Abstract

"The incidence of employment interruptions and temporary part-time work has grown strongly among full-time workers, yet little is known about the impact on wage inequality. This is the first study showing that such episodes play a substantial role for the rise in inequality of full-time wages, considering the case of Germany. While there are also strong composition effects of education for males and of age and experience for females, changes in industry and occupation explain fairly little of the inequality rise. Extending the analysis to total employment reveals substantial negative selection into part-time work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Blömer, Maximilian Joseph, Nicole Gürtzgen, Laura Pohlan, Holger Stichnoth & Gerard J. van den Berg (2018): Unemployment effects of the German minimum wage in an equilibrium job search model. (CESifo working paper 7160), München, 60 S.

Abstract

"We structurally estimate an equilibrium search model using German administrative data and use this for counterfactual analyses of a uniform minimum wage. The model with worker and firm heterogeneity does not restrict the sign of employment effects a priori and allows for different job offer arrival rates for the employed and the unemployed. We find that unemployment is a non-monotonic function of the minimum wage level. Effects differ strongly by labour market segment. Cross-segment variation of the estimated effects is mostly driven by firm productivity levels rather than by search frictions or the opportunity cost of employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bublitz, Elisabeth (2018): Matching skills of individuals and firms along the career path. In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 70, H. 2, S. 509-537. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpx056

Abstract

"Research since Gary Becker equated specific human capital with firm-specific human capital. This paper divides firm human capital into a specific and a general component to investigate the relationships between firm- and occupation-specific human capital and job switches. Applying the task-based approach, the results show that the degree to which firm knowledge is portable depends on task similarities between the firms. Firm- and occupation-specific knowledge are negatively related to wages in a new job, but achieving a good occupational, instead of firm, match is more important for employees. The occupational intensity, reflecting the overall knowledge composition on the firm level, decreases with experience and can outweigh the costs of covering long task distances. As regards matching, a small distance between the firm and occupational tasks matters for medium-skilled employees." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Böttcher, Matthias (2018): Die Bedeutung regionaler Arbeitsmärkte für die Entstehung von Innovationen. Berlin, 235 S. DOI:10.18452/19398

Abstract

"Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Intensität der zwischenbetrieblichen Mobilität von Hochqualifizierten für Deutschland auf regionaler Ebene und überprüft, welcher Wirkungszusammenhang von zwischenbetrieblicher Mobilität und regionaler Innovationsentstehung besteht. Zentral für die Entstehung von Innovationen werden Wissensspillover angesehen. Insbesondere hochqualifizierten Arbeitskräften wird eine besondere Rolle zugeschrieben, Wissensspillovereffekte auszulösen. In der wissenschaftlichen Literatur wird für verschiedene Regionen in den USA und dem skandinavischen Raum auf den positiven Einfluss von zwischenbetrieblicher Mobilität von hochqualifizierten Beschäftigten und der Innovationsentstehung verwiesen. Im Fokus dieser Arbeiten stehen hierbei zumeist Beschäftigte im IT-Bereich. Für Deutschland liegen bisher nur wenige Befunde zur Intensität der zwischenbetrieblichen Mobilität von Hochqualifizierten vor. Dementsprechend wird in dieser Arbeit der Frage nachgegangen, wie sich die zwischenbetriebliche Mobilität von Hochqualifizierten räumlich darstellt und welche Auswirkungen regionale Unterschiede im Mobilitätsverhalten auf den Wissenstransfer und damit auf die Innovationsfähigkeit haben.
Zur Klärung der Forschungsfrage wird in dieser Arbeit ein Methodenmix angewandt. Auf Grundlage einer quantitativen Auswertung von bundesweiten Berufsbiographien und der Analyse des räumlichen Innovationsgeschehens wird deutlich, dass zwischenbetriebliche Mobilität in einem positiven Zusammenhang mit der regionalen Innovationsaktivität steht. Die Befunde für deutsche Regionen bestätigen somit die internationale Forschungsliteratur zur Wirkungsweise von zwischenbetrieblicher Mobilität auf die Innovationsentstehung. Die qualitative Auswertung von Interviews mit Experten aus Maschinenbauunternehmen und regionalen Institutionen in vier deutschen Fallregionen zeigt, dass in diesem Bereich des produzierenden Sektors spezifische Barrieren existieren, die Einfluss darauf haben, dass Arbeitskräftemobilität nur bedingt zu Wissensspillovern führt. Weiterhin zeigt sich, dass räumliche Unterschiede in den Fallregionen bei der Wahrnehmung von Arbeitskräftemobilität bestehen. Dieses ist jedoch auf die betriebsstrukturellen Merkmale der Unternehmen zurückzuführen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos, Andrey Launov & Jean-Marc Robin (2018): The fall in German unemployment. A flow analysis. (IZA discussion paper 11442), Bonn, 48 S.

Abstract

"In this paper we investigate the recent fall in unemployment, and the rise in part-time work, labour market participation, inequality and welfare in Germany. Unemployment fell because the Hartz IV reform induced a large fraction of the long-term unemployed to deregister as jobseekers and appear as non-participants. Yet, labour force participation increased because many unregistered-unemployed workers ended up accepting low-paid part-time work that was offered in quantity in absence of a universal minimum wage. A large part of the rise in part-time work was also due to the tax benefits Hartz II introduced to take up a mini-job as secondary employment. This has provided an easy way to top-up labour income staggering under the pressure of wage moderation. The rise in part-time work led to an increase in inequality at the lower end of income distribution. Overall we find that Germany increased welfare as unemployment fell." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cygan-Rehm, Kamila (2018): Is additional schooling worthless? Revising the zero returns to compulsory schooling in Germany. (CESifo working paper 7191), München, 49 S.

Abstract

"This study estimates the effect of compulsory schooling on earnings. For identification, I exploit a German reform that extended the duration of secondary schooling in the 1960s. I find that hourly wages increase by 6%-8% per additional year of schooling. This result challenges prior findings for Germany of zero returns to schooling, obtained by using the same survey data and reform. I show that the earlier estimates suffer from unconsidered institutional details. A complementary analysis using social security records confirms significant effects on earnings, but yields no effects on employment and take-up of public transfers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Damelang, Andreas, Michael Stops & Martin Abraham (2018): Occupations as labour market institutions. Occupational regulation and its effects on job matching and occupational closure. In: Soziale Welt, Jg. 69, H. 4, S. 406-426., 2018-11-02. DOI:10.5771/0038-6073-2018-4-406

Abstract

"Wir definieren Berufe als Institutionen, die das Bildungssystem mit dem Arbeitsmarkt koppeln und argumentieren, dass Berufe idealtypische Anforderungsprofile von Stellenangeboten darstellen. Auf dieser theoretischen Grundlage erarbeiten wir unterschiedliche Mechanismen, wie berufliche Institutionen und deren Regulierung berufliche Qualifikationen definieren und den Zugang zu Berufen und gleichzeitig Mobilität zwischen Berufen strukturieren. Das Ausmaß der beruflichen Regulierung variiert erheblich zwischen den Berufen. Darauf aufbauend analysieren wir die Auswirkungen der beruflichen Regulierung. Wir zeigen, dass die Regulierung zweiteilige Effekte hat. Erstens erhöht die berufliche Regulierung den Informationsstand sowohl für Arbeitgeber als auch für Arbeitssuchende und verringert somit die Unsicherheit im Matching-Prozess. Zweitens produziert berufliche Regulierung 'closed shops', indem der Zugang zu Berufen eingeschränkt wird. Studien, die sowohl die positiven als auch die negativen Auswirkungen beruflicher Regulierungen berücksichtigen, sind bisher selten. Wir schließen diese Lücke, indem wir zwei zentrale Arbeitsmarktprozesse untersuchen: Job Matching und berufliche Schließung. Um berufliche Regulierung empirisch abzubilden, verwenden wir einen innovativen Indikator und testen unsere Hypothesen mit deutschen Daten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass je stärker die berufliche Regulierung bei sonst gleichen Bedingungen ist, desto weniger aufwändig gestaltet sich der Matching-Prozess für die Vertragspartner. Im Gegensatz dazu wird der Wechsel in eine neue Beschäftigung umso unwahrscheinlicher, je stärker ein Beruf reguliert ist." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Dorau, Ralf (2018): Prekäre Berufseinstiegsprozesse von Ausbildungsabsolventinnen und -absolventen in Deutschland von 1980 bis 2005. Bonn: Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 240 S.

Abstract

"Der Übergang von dualer Ausbildung in die Erwerbstätigkeit wird für die Abschlusskohorten von 1980 bis 2005 bezüglich ihrer beruflichen Integration verglichen. Dabei soll untersucht werden, ob der in zahlreichen Studien belegte Anstieg der Prekarität im Untersuchungszeitraum auch auf den Einstieg in den berufsfachspezifischen Arbeitsmarkt zutrifft. Mittels Mehrebenenanalysen werden zugleich die Einstiegsverläufe unterschiedlicher Berufsgruppen sowie Frauen und Männer mit oder ohne Abitur analysiert. Die Berufsgruppen werden zusätzlich nach weiblich und männlich dominierten Berufen sowie nach den spezifischen Arbeitslosenquoten differenziert. Ebenso werden regionale Arbeitslosenquoten berücksichtigt. Zwischen den Kohorten zeigen sich größere Schwankungen hinsichtlich der beruflichen Integration, entgegen der zuvor aufgestellten Hypothese aber kein deutlicher Anstieg des Anteils prekärer Verläufe. Der Anteil prekärer Sequenzen ist allerdings mit teilweise 30 % schon in den 1980er Jahren unerwartet hoch. Dafür aber steigt der Anteil entkoppelter Sequenzen deutlich, besonders seit Ende der 1990er Jahre. Dies ist in erster Linie durch häufigere Arbeitslosigkeit bedingt. Der Ausbildungsberuf hat eine große Bedeutung für die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines integrierten, prekären und zum Teil auch entkoppelten Berufseinstiegs, deutlich größer als individuelle Faktoren und ist über die Kohorten relativ stabil. Tatsächlich ist der berufsfachspezifische Arbeitsmarkt in starkem Ausmaß durch den Ausbildungsberuf selbst differenziert. Analysiert man die Kontextfaktoren, hat die spezifische Arbeitslosenquote im jeweiligen Berufsaggregat den dominanten Einfluss auf die berufliche Integration. Eine erhöhte Arbeitslosenquote lässt die Gefahr von Entkopplung und Prekarität ansteigen. Zusätzlich übt aber auch die Region über ihren Kontexteffekt einen größeren Einfluss aus und die Bedeutung der regionalen Arbeitslosenquote geht noch über die der beruflichen hinaus. In Berufen mit einem höheren Anteil von Frauen ist der Anteil prekärer Berufseinstiegsprozesse höher. Dieser Zusammenhang ist in vielen und besonders den aktuellen Kohorten signifikant. Davon abgesehen sind bei jungen Frauen beim Berufseinstieg noch keine größeren Probleme als bei jungen Männern zu erkennen. Als individueller Einfluss auf die berufliche Integration beim Berufseinstieg spielt ein abgeschlossenes Abitur tatsächlich eine große Rolle für eine gelungene berufliche Integration. Die Gefahr von Prekarität sinkt, die Integrationschance steigt. Allerdings zeigt sich dieser Zusammenhang kaum in den älteren Kohorten, der Anteil der Absolventinnen und Absolventen mit Abitur ist zu gering." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Friedrich, Anett & Sandra Horn (2018): Qualifikatorische Bildungsrenditen in verschiedenen Datenquellen. (Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung. Wissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 197), Bonn, 60 S.

Abstract

"Eine Synopse aktueller Forschungsliteratur zeigt, dass sich die Höhe der qualifikatorischen Bildungsrenditen zwischen Studien unterscheidet. Wir untersuchen empirisch, ob die Variation der Renditen systematisch vom gewählten Datensatz abhängt. Die qualifikatorischen Bildungsrenditen werden mit einem einheitlichen Variablenset, identischen OLS-Lohnregressionen und vergleichbaren Populationen mit drei verschiedenen Datenquellen: BIBB/BAuA-ETB, SOEP und SIAB bestimmt. Wir zeigen, dass für berufliche Abschlüsse vergleichbare Renditen ermittelt werden können, anders als für Personen ohne einen beruflichen Bildungsabschluss. Die tatsächliche Arbeitszeit stellt sich als zentrales lohnwirksames Merkmal heraus, um gefundene Unterschiede zwischen den Datensätzen in den Bildungsrenditen zu erklären." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Gehrke, Britta & Enzo Weber (2018): The timing of structural labor market reforms matters. In: IAB-Forum H. 09.02.2018, o. Sz., 2018-02-06.

Abstract

"Ever since the economic and financial crises of the late 2000s - also known as the Great Recession, demands for structural reforms to ease market regulations have been omnipresent in Europe. A particular emphasis has been placed on labor market regulations - involving heated political debates. A recent IAB study shows that the effects of labor market reforms heavily depend on the timing of the reform." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gehrke, Britta & Enzo Weber (2018): Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 110, H. November, S. 18-40., 2018-07-17. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.07.006

Abstract

"This paper proposes a novel approach to identify structural long-term driving forces of the labor market and their short-run state-dependent effects. Based on search and matching theory, our empirical model extracts these driving forces within an unobserved components approach. We relate changes in the labor market structures to reforms that enhance the flexibility of the labor market in expansion and recession. Results for Germany and Spain show that labor market reforms have substantially weaker beneficial effects in the short run when implemented in recessions. From a policy perspective, these results highlight the costs of introducing reforms in recessions." (Author's abstract, © 2018 Elsevier) ((en))

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Hartung, Benjamin, Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn (2018): What hides behind the German labor market miracle? Unemployment insurance reforms and labor market dynamics. (CEPR discussion paper 13328), London, 66 S.

Abstract

"A key question in labor market research is how the unemployment insurance system affects unemployment rates and labor market dynamics. We revisit this old question studying the German Hartz reforms. On average, lower separation rates explain 76% of declining unemployment after the reform, a fact unexplained by existing research focusing on job finding rates. The reduction in separation rates is heterogeneous, with long-term employed, high-wage workers being most affected. We causally link our empirical findings to the reduction in long-term unemployment benefits using a heterogeneous-agent labor market search model. Absent the reform, unemployment rates would be 50% higher today." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lergetporer, Philipp, Jens Ruhose & Lisa Simon (2018): Entry barriers and the labor market outcomes of incumbent workers. Evidence from a deregulation reform in the German crafts sector. (IZA discussion paper 11857), Bonn, 70 S.

Abstract

"We study the labor market outcomes of a deregulation reform in Germany that removed licensing requirements to become self-employed in some occupations. Using longitudinal social security data, we implement a matched difference-in-differences design with entropy balancing to account for observable characteristics and unobserved individual heterogeneity. The reform tripled the number of businesses within ten years and led to slower earnings growth and higher unemployment for incumbent workers in deregulated occupations. However, the reform effect seems rather small, which we attribute to the relatively low competitiveness of new businesses. Supporting this view, the reform did not lead to overall employment growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Müller, Steffen & Renate Neubaeumer (2018): Size of training firms. The role of firms, luck, and ability in young workers' careers. In: International journal of manpower, Jg. 39, H. 5, S. 658-673. DOI:10.1108/IJM-07-2016-0155

Abstract

"Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze how long-run unemployment of former apprentices depends on the size of their training firm and their ability.
Design/methodology/approach: The authors use a large administrative data set that follows graduated apprentices during their working life. They show that training in large and medium-sized firms is associated with considerably less unemployment. This, however, may simply be the result of sorting processes, i.e. larger training firms with higher wage levels attract and choose the most able young workers. Therefore, the authors use a proxy for ability to estimate and control for the impact of ability on long-run unemployment. They assume that rank-order tournaments for the most attractive training positions take place and take into account an institutional peculiarity of the German training system, the empirically observable regional immobility of apprentices. Accordingly, they use a region-specific ranking based on training plants' size or median wages, respectively, to proxy for apprentices' ability.
Findings: The negative association between training plant size and long-run unemployment is muted but still statistically well determined even after controlling for the rank of an individual's training firm in the local plant size distribution or the local wage distribution, respectively. Thus, the rank itself is a predictor for long-run unemployment of apprentices. The fact that the position in the local size distribution matters conditional on plant size shows that there is a local competition for training places.
Practical implications: Lacking mobility may increases aggregate unemployment, as mobility reduces the risk of unemployment.
Social implications: The results imply that supporting regional mobility of young workers, e.g., by informing them better about existing mobility subsidies and dormitories for apprentices and by creating additional mobility incentives is warranted.
Originality/value: This is the first study to investigate long-run unemployment of former apprentices. Furthermore, the authors develop new variables to proxy for ability." (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Ochsenfeld, Fabian (2018): Mercantilist dualization: the introduction of the euro, redistribution of industry rents, and wage inequality in Germany, 1993 - 2008. In: Socio-economic review, Jg. 16, H. 3, S. 499-522. DOI:10.1093/ser/mwx026

Abstract

"The current debate over distributional implications of the crisis-ridden Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is heavily biased toward international accounts. Little attention is paid to who wins and who loses out intra-nationally. I argue that in Germany the EMU has reinforced dualization, the insider - outsider cleavage in the country's welfare state and production model. To scrutinize this argument, I analyze longitudinal linked employer - employee data (N?>?9.6 mio) and pursue a mechanistic three-step identification strategy: first, I illustrate how the introduction of the euro distorted real interest and exchange rates within the eurozone. Second, I demonstrate how these imbalances redistributed rents from the domestic sector, in particular from construction, to the core manufacturing industry. Third, I show how this shift in industry rents reverberated to the wage distribution and increased inequality. The study contributes to resolve the puzzle why wage inequality in Germany increased through a fanning out of the wage distribution whereas countries similarly exposed to technological change and globalization grew unequal through a polarization of their wage distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pfister, Mona, Svenja Lorenz & Thomas Zwick (2018): Calculation of pension entitlements in the sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB). (FDZ-Methodenreport 01/2018 (en)), Nürnberg, 54 S. DOI:10.5164/IAB.FDZM.1801.en.v1

Abstract

"Wir beschreiben eine Vorgehensweise zur Berechnung der individuellen Rentenansprüche (Entgeltpunkte) auf Basis von Datensätzen mit allgemeinen Informationen aus der Erwerbsbiografie. Die Höhe der Rentenansprüche kann als ein wichtiger Treiber der Renteneintrittsentscheidung und der Arbeitsmarktaktivität im Alter angesehen werden. Für viele Fragestellungen kann es demnach hilfreich sein, die Höhe der Entgeltpunkte pro Person in einem administrativen Datensatz über individuelle Arbeitsmarktkarrieren berechnen zu können, der keine spezifischen Angaben zu Rentenansprüchen enthält. Im ersten Teil des Reports nutzen wir einen hochqualitativen administrativen Datensatz mit Informationen zu individuellen Erwerbsverläufen und Rentenansprüchen einer Stichprobe fast aller abhängig Beschäftigten in Deutschland (Biografiedaten ausgewählter Sozialversicherungsträger in Deutschland, BASiD). Wir erklären, welche Informationen für die Berechnung der Entgeltpunkte notwendig sind und skizzieren mögliche Fehlerquellen bei deren Berechnung.
Im zweiten Teil des Reports übertragen wir die vorher beschriebene Methode zur Berechnung der Entgeltpunkte auf einen umfangreicheren administrativen Datensatz mit lediglich konventionellen Informationen über Arbeitsmarktkarrieren (Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien, SIAB). Auch hier beschreiben wir unsere Berechnungen und die dabei auftretenden Fehler, indem wir die Datenumgebung des SIAB im BASiD nachbauen. Die durchschnittliche Abweichung der jährlichen Entgeltpunkte beträgt lediglich 1%, der Fehler bei der Berechnung der Summe der Entgeltpunkte liegt bei 7%. Ein Großteil der Abweichungen kann durch lückenhafte Rentenbeitragszahlungen während Phasen niedrig bezahlter Beschäftigung, wie Elternzeit, geringfügiger Beschäftigung oder Arbeitslosigkeit erklärt werden. Zusätzlich sind kleinere Fehler bei öffentlichen Extrazahlungen während dieser Perioden und aufgrund spezifischer Rechtsvorschriften für bestimmte sozioökonomische Gruppen nicht auszuschließen. Außerdem kommen kleine und nicht systematische Rundungsfehler hinzu. Abschließend berechnen wir die Entgeltpunkte mit dem SIAB und zeigen deskriptive Statistiken der jährlichen und kumulierten Rentenansprüche für das gesamte Sample und Untergruppen. Wir können somit zeigen, dass unser Verfahren zur Berechnung von Pensionsansprüchen zahlreiche neue und wichtige Forschungsansätze mit konventionellen Daten über Beschäftigungsbiografien zumindest für Beschäftigte ohne lange Erwerbslücken ermöglicht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Pohlan, Laura (2018): Essays on unemployment, job search behavior and policy interventions. Mannheim, XIV, 235 S.

Abstract

"This dissertation explores through which channels unemployment leads to exclusion from society and how policy interventions and technological innovations affect individual job search behavior and are able to bring unemployed persons back into the labor market. All four chapters contained in this dissertation are based on large individual-level data sets from Germany and aim at identifying causal relationships by employing different empirical methods. This thesis starts in the first chapter with an analysis of how job loss impacts different dimensions of social exclusion and shows that unemployment has detrimental economic and social effects. In the second chapter, which is co-authored by Annette Bergemann and Arne Uhlendorff, we study employment effects of participation in job creation schemes in the years after German reunification. We find that participation in job creation programs is beneficial for high skilled women in times of economic instability. In the third chapter, my co-authors Maximilian Blömer, Nicole Gürtzgen, Holger Stichnoth, Gerard van den Berg and I estimate an equilibrium job search model and simulate the introduction of different minimum wage levels. The results indicate that minimum wage effects on unemployment are non-linear and highly dependent on the labor market structure. In the last chapter, which is co-authored by Nicole Gürtzgen, André Nolte and Gerard van den Berg, we find that high-speed internet leads to higher reemployment probabilities with a certain time delay. This effect is particularly pronounced for unemployed males." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Prenzel, Paula & Simona Iammarino (2018): Ageing labour: How does demographic change affect regional human capital? (Papers in evolutionary economic geography 2018/32), Utrecht, 35 S.

Abstract

"Human capital investments are frequently suggested as policy measure to cope with smaller and older labour forces caused by demographic change across Europe. However, the availability and composition of human capital is fundamentally intertwined with demographic structures, especially at a regional level. This paper analyses how ageing is related to the regional composition of human capital for 332 German regions between 1996 and 2010. The findings show that labour force ageing is associated with lower educational attainment, and that older labour forces have higher shares of traditional vocational degrees. On a national level, education expansion still sufficiently compensates for the effects of population ageing, but regional human capital composition shows distinct trends." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Price, Brendan (2018): The duration and wage effects of long-term unemployment benefits. Evidence from Germany's Hartz IV reform. (MIT economics. Job market paper), Cambridge, 69 S.

Abstract

Many displaced workers exhaust their initial stream of unemployment insurance benefits (UI). I analyze Germany's 2005 Hartz IV reform, which reduced the generosity of long-term unemployment assistance available once these initial benefits run out. Using administrative data on UI claimants, I exploit cross-cohort and within-cohort heterogeneity in the timing of Hartz IV's effective onset to estimate how long- term-benefit reductions effect jobless durations, subsequent wages, and job characteristics. The hazard rate of reemployment rises steadily in the months before benefit cuts bind, culminating in a much larger spike at initial benefit exhaustion than was evident before the reform. I find that a worker subject to the new benefit schedule is 12.4 percent less likely to experience a one-year jobless spell. Conditional on completed jobless duration, workers who accept jobs after exhausting their initial entitlements earn 4 to 8 percent lower wages than they would have absent the reform. Averaging across completed durations, and accounting for offsetting wage gains due to shorter spells, I conclude that UI reform had at most a slight impact on mean reemployment wages: my estimates allow me to rule out wage declines exceeding 1.5 percent or increases exceeding 1.8 percent. Hartz IV diverted claimants from low-paid mini-jobs" that often supplement UI receipt: net employment gains are driven by full-time jobs. Hartz IV's direct effects on individual job-finding if not offset by general equilibrium forces may have lowered Germany's steady-state unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points.

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Riphahn, Regina T. & Rebecca Schrader (2018): Institutional reforms and an incredible rise in old age employment. (LASER discussion papers 111), Erlangen, 52 S.

Abstract

"We investigate whether a cut in unemployment benefit payout periods affected older workers' labor market transitions. We apply rich administrative data and exploit a difference-in-differences approach. We compare the reference group of 40-44 year olds with constant benefit payout periods to older treatment groups with reduced payout durations. For the latter job exit rates declined, job finding rates increased, the propensity to remain employed increased, and the propensity to remain unemployed declined after the reform. These patterns suggest that the reform of unemployment benefits may be one of the reasons behind the recent incredible rise in old age employment in Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Simon, Lisa K. (2018): Shocking choice: Trade shocks, local labor markets and vocational occupation choices. (Ifo working paper 281), München, 63 S.

Abstract

"Whether individuals choose occupations that teach general or specific skills can have important implications on how protected they are from changing conditions on the labor market. This paper looks at the impact of growing up in a region exposed to structural change caused by import competition on vocational occupation choices using longitudinal social security data for Germany. Results show that individuals enter more skill-specific occupations like manufacturing and less general occupations like services if exposed to higher local import competition. Lifetime earnings are adversely affected, which can be attributed to vocational occupation choices." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Smith, Benjamin Simpson (2018): Essays on the role of the firm in labor economics. Los Angeles, 231 S.

Abstract

"The first chapter of this dissertation studies the causes of rising sorting between high-skill workers and high-paying firms. Despite accounting for a substantial share of rising wage inequality, little is known about how or why sorting is rising. To understand how, I develop a novel decomposition method to measure the relative importance of different worker flow channels. I find that labor market entry of young workers accounts for about half of the total rise in sorting.
To understand why sorting is rising, I use exogenous variation induced by the fall of the Soviet Union to estimate the effect of trade liberalization on rising sorting within German local labor markets. I find that export exposure can account for 14% of the rise in sorting. I then apply the decomposition method to the export-induced changes in employment to confirm an important role for labor market entry in rising sorting. The second chapter studies the effect of temporary employment shocks on the future earnings of professional golfers. Although a large literature documents the persistent effects of temporary employment shocks on the earnings of wage-and-salary workers, we have little evidence on the effects on self-employed workers. I exploit entry rules of the PGA TOUR to estimate the long term effects of temporary employment shocks using a regression discontinuity design. Although, I find large earnings differences in first year after an employment shock, these differences quickly dissipate. Furthermore, I find no effects of employment shocks on performance. Golfers have less job stability than typical workers and these differences likely explain why the earnings losses of golfers are less persistent than of wage-and-salary workers.
The third chapter studies the evolution of wages at large firms. Although large firms have paid significantly higher wages for over a century, we document that the large-firm wage premium has declined over the last thirty years. Decomposing pay into worker and firm fixed effects, we show that the decline is due to a reduction in firm effects at large firms, while worker composition has changed little. We also find that the majority of the change occurs within industries." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)