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Mihailov, Alexander (2020): Quantifying the Macroeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Lockdown: Comparative Simulations of the Estimated Galí-Smets-Wouters Model. (Discussion papers / University of Reading, Department of Economics 2020-07), Reading, 32 S.

Abstract

"This paper considers 3 scenarios regarding the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, staying for 1, 2 or 3 quarters, and 2 types of exceptionally rare and devastating disruptions in employment modeled as adverse labor supply shocks, a temporary one with negligible loss in the labor force due to deaths or a permanent one, with significant loss from deaths. The temporary labor supply shock simulations delimit a lower bound, designed to match about 1/4 of the labor force unable to work, and an upper bound, matching about 3/4 of the labor force made economically inactive, broadly consistent with estimates. The permanent labor supply shock is designed to match, in 3 scenarios again, up to 1% loss of the labor force due to mortality, twice milder than the Spanish flu 2% death rate. Estimated calibrations of the Galí-Smets-Wouters (2012) model with indivisible labor for 5 major and most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic economies are simulated: the US, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. The simulations suggest that even in the most optimistic scenario of a brief (lasting for 1 quarter) and mild (with 1/4 of the labor force unable to work) lockdown, the loss of per-capita consumption (6-7% in annualized terms down from the long-run trend in the impact quarter) and per-capita output (3-4% down) will be quite damaging, but recoverable relatively quickly, in 1-2 years. In the most pessimistic simulated scenario of temporary loss the effects will be 10-15 times more devastating, and the loss of output and consumption will persist beyond 10-15 years. Permanent loss of up to 1.5 percentage points of per-capita consumption and output characterizes the simulated permanent labor supply shock." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Myers, Kyle R., Wei Yang Tham, Yian Yin, Nina Cohodes, Jerry G. Thursby, Marie C. Thursby, Peter Schiffer, Joseph T. Walsh, Karim R. Lakhani & Dashun Wang (2020): Unequal effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on scientists. In: Nature Human Behaviour, Jg. 4, H. 9, S. 880-883. DOI:10.1038/s41562-020-0921-y

Abstract

"COVID-19 has not affected all scientists equally. A survey of principal investigators indicates that female scientists, those in the 'bench sciences' and, especially, scientists with young children experienced a substantial decline in time devoted to research. This could have important short- and longer-term effects on their careers, which institution leaders and funders need to address carefully." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Müller, Torsten & Thorsten Schulten (2020): Ensuring fair short-time work - a European overview. (European Trade Union Institute. Policy brief 2020,07), Brüssel, 12 S.

Abstract

"At the end of April 2020, in the EU27 there were more than 42 million applications for support for workers on short-time work or similar schemes, which corresponds to about one quarter of the overall EU workforce. With its proposed SURE programme to provide financial support to national short-time work and similar systems, the European Commission has recognized the importance of short-time work for avoiding unemployment and supporting employees’ wages while at the same time allowing companies to adapt working hours to the drop in demand. Based on a comparison of the different short-time work schemes in Europe, this policy brief identifies some criteria for fair short-time work which enables workers not only to retain their job, but also to live a decent life." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Noy, Ilan, Nguyen Doan, Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park (2020): Measuring the economic risk of Covid-19. In: Covid economics H. 3, S. 103-118.

Abstract

"We measure the economic risk of Covid-19 at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the current prevalence of confirmed cases, we use data from 2014-2018 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of the epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard and the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy’s resilience (i.e., its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of this pandemic is particularly high in most of Africa, the Indian subcontinent, the Persian Gulf, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad hoc equal weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, an algorithm that assumes equal hazard for all countries, and one based on an estimated weights using previous aggregated disability-adjusted life years losses associated with communicable diseases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Palomino, Juan C., Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian (2020): Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 129. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103564

Abstract

"The “social distancing” measures taken to contain the spread of COVID-19 impose economic costs that go beyond the contraction of GDP. Since different occupations are not equally affected, this supply shock may have distributional implications. Here, we evaluate the potential impact of enforced social distancing on wage inequality and poverty across Europe. We compute a Lockdown Working Ability (LWA) index which represents the capacity of individuals to work under a lockdown given their teleworking index −that we obtain for European occupations using 2018 EU-LFS− and whether their occupation is essential or closed. Combining our LWA index and 2018 EU-SILC, we calculate individuals’ potential wage losses under six scenarios of lockdown. The Lockdown Incidence Curves show striking differential wage losses across the distribution, and we consistently find that both poverty and wage inequality rise in all European countries. These changes increase with the duration of the lockdown and vary with the country under consideration. We estimate an increase in the headcount index of 3 percentage points for overall Europe, while the mean loss rate for the poor is 10.3%, using the 2 months lockdown simulation. In the same scenario, inequality" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Palomino, Juan C., Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian (2020): Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe. In: Covid economics H. 25, S. 186-229.

Abstract

"The “social distancing” measures taken to contain the spread of COVID-19 impose economic costs that go beyond the contraction of GDP. Since different occupations are not equally affected, this supply shock may have distributional implications. Here, we evaluate the potential impact of enforced social distancing on wage inequality and poverty across Europe. We compute a Lockdown Working Ability (LWA) index which represents the capacity of individuals to work under a lockdown given their teleworking index −that we obtain for European occupations using 2018 EU-LFS− and whether their occupation is essential or closed. Combining our LWA index and 2018 EU-SILC, we calculate individuals’ potential wage losses under six scenarios of lockdown. The Lockdown Incidence Curves show striking differential wage losses across the distribution, and we consistently find that both poverty and wage inequality rise in all European countries. These changes increase with the duration of the lockdown and vary with the country under consideration. We estimate an increase in the headcount index of 3 percentage points for overall Europe, while the mean loss rate for the poor is 10.3%, using the 2 months lockdown simulation. In the same scenario, inequality" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pekanov, Atanas (2020): Antworten der internationalen Wirtschaftspolitik auf die COVID-19-Krise. In: Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Jg. 93, H. 4, S. 275-284.

Abstract

"Die meisten EU-Länder reagierten rasch auf die negativen Folgen der behördlichen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie auf die Wirtschaft, um den Wirtschaftsschock möglichst zu begrenzen. Unter die zahlreichen angekündigten finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen fallen z. B. Liquiditätshilfen für die Unternehmen in Form von Krediten, Steuerstundungen bzw. Steuerherabsetzungen sowie nicht rückzahlbare Unterstützungszahlungen, Unterstützungen für private Haushalte, die gegenwärtig unter Arbeitslosigkeit, Einkommensverlusten und großer Unsicherheit leiden, sowie Hilfen für besonders stark betroffene Branchen. Hinzu kommen zusätzliche Mittel für bestimmte staatliche Aktivitäten und Bereiche, wie etwa das Gesundheitssystem oder die Forschung. Auch Österreich definierte ein im internationalen Vergleich ambitioniertes Hilfspaket, um die wirtschaftlichen Turbulenzen abzufangen. Besondere Bedeutung kommt dabei dem Kurzarbeitsmodell sowie den massiven Liquiditätshilfen für Unternehmen zu, die wie in den meisten anderen Ländern ein zentraler Baustein der finanzpolitischen Reaktion auf die Krise sind." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © WIFO - Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

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Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, Eyno Rots & Danilo Leiva-Leon (2020): Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 2381), Frankfurt am Main, 58 S. DOI:10.2866/24670

Abstract

"We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia) and emerging markets (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa). Based on such inferences, we construct a Global Weakness Index that has three main features. First, it can be updated as soon as new regional data is released, as we show by measuring the economic effects of coronavirus. Second, it provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy's weakness. Third, it allows to perform robust risk assessments based on the probability that the level of global weakness would exceed a certain threshold of interest in every period of time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Petersen, Thieß & Christian Bluth (2020): Megatrend-Report #02: Die Corona-Transformation. Wie die Pandemie die Globalisierung bremst und die Digitalisierung beschleunigt. In: Megatrend-Report / Bertelsmann Stiftung, Jg. 2, H. 2 Gütersloh, Gütersloh, S. 1-59. DOI:10.11586/2020054

Abstract

"Die durch die Corona-Pandemie ausgelöste globale Wirtschaftskrise ist bereits die zweite Wirtschaftskrise historischen Ausmaßes, wie sie seit den 1930er Jahren keine Generation mehr erlebt hat. Während die Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 das Ergebnis einer geplatzten Spekulationsblase war, die zu einem abrupten Nachfragerückgang nach Gütern und Dienstleistungen führte, ist eine Pandemie ein exogener Schock, der nicht nur einen Nachfrageeinbruch, sondern auch noch einen Produktionsrückgang hervorruft. Entsprechend gehen die aktuell vorliegenden Prognosen von einem wesentlich größeren Einbruch der Weltwirtschaft aus als nach der Lehman-Pleite, was die exportorientierte deutsche Volkswirtschaft hart trifft." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Petersen, Thieß (2020): Optimale internationale Arbeitsteilung. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 100, H. 4, S. 291-293. DOI:10.1007/s10273-020-2632-4

Abstract

"Die internationale Arbeitsteilung bietet für eine Volkswirtschaft sowohl Vorals auch Nachteile. Sofern die damit verbundenen Grenzkosten und Grenznutzen die üblichen Verläufe aufweisen, gibt es für jedes Land ein optimales Ausmaß dieser Arbeitsteilung. Die Corona-Pandemie dürfte die Grundlagen für die entsprechenden Entscheidungen im Bereich der internationalen Arbeitsteilung–sowohl aus Sicht der Unternehmen als auch aus Sicht der gesamten Gesellschaft–deutlich verändern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag)

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Pouliakas, Konstantinos & Jiri Branka (2020): EU Jobs at Highest Risk of COVID-19 Social Distancing: Will the Pandemic Exacerbate Labour Market Divide? (IZA discussion paper 13281), 32 S.

Abstract

"This paper employs a skills-based approach to identify individual and job factors most likely to be impacted by social distancing measures and practices due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Using data from the Cedefop European skills and jobs survey, a Covid-19 social distancing risk index (COV19R) is created based on skills descriptors that categorise jobs by their level of physical proximity to others and their digital intensity. It is conservatively estimated that about 45 million jobs in the EU-27 labour market (23% of total EU-27 employment) are faced with a very high risk of Covid-19 disruption and another 22% of the EU workforce – mostly medium- to lower-skilled service provision – is exposed to some significant risk. The burden of the Covid-19 social distancing risk falls disproportionately on vulnerable workforce groups, such as women, older employees, non-natives, the lower-educated, those working longer hours and employed in micro-sized workplaces. The findings call for immediate and targeted policy responses to prevent ongoing job losses and widening of labour market and social inequalities due to the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Scarpetta, Stefano, Mark Pearson, Alexander Hijzen & Andrea Salvatori (2020): Job retention schemes during the COVID-19 lockdown and beyond. OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19). (Tackling coronavirus (COVID-19): Contributing to a global effort), Paris, 23 S.

Abstract

"Job retention (JR) schemes have been one of the main policy tools used by a number of OECD countries to contain the employment and social fallout of the COVID‑19 crisis. By May 2020, JR schemes supported about 50 million jobs across the OECD, about ten times as many as during the global financial crisis of 2008-09. By reducing labour costs, JR schemes have prevented a surge in unemployment, while they have mitigated financial hardship and buttressed aggregate demand by supporting the incomes of workers on reduced working time. However, as the first wave of the health crisis is receding in some OECD countries and government restrictions to economic activities are being withdrawn, JR schemes need to adjust. This requires a better targeting of JR support to jobs that are viable but at risk of being terminated and a greater focus on supporting workers at risk of becoming unemployed, rather than their jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schmid, Günther & Wolfgang Schroeder (2020): Europäische Arbeitsmarktpolitik nach der Krise. In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 73, H. 6, S. 438-444. DOI:10.5771/0342-300X-2020-6-438

Abstract

"Die Entwicklung der Arbeitsmarktpolitik auf europäischer Ebene hat durch die Krisen der letzten Jahre immer wieder neue Impulse erhalten, die als Lernprozesse charakterisiert werden können. Mit den Initiativen für eine europäische Arbeitslosenversicherung, für ein europäisches Mindestlohnniveau und gegen Jugendarbeitslosigkeit ist die EU im Bereich der Arbeitsmarktpolitik mittlerweile ein Akteur, der die nationalen Aktivtäten zu ergänzen und zu unterstützen versucht. Die Covid-19-Krise könnte ein Gelegenheitsfenster sein, den Europäischen Sozialfonds um bestimmte Elemente der Arbeitsversicherung weiter zu entwickeln. Das Ziel sollte nicht nur darin bestehen, in europäischer Solidarität auf zyklische Krisen des Arbeitsmarkts zu reagieren, sondern auch die nationalen Kapazitäten zu stärken, um Einkommensrisiken im gesamten Erwerbsverlauf abzusichern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Schoenfeld, Jordan (2020): The invisible risk: Pandemics and the financial markets. In: Covid economics H. 6, S. 119-136.

Abstract

"Are pandemics systemically important to modern-day financial markets? This study uses the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment for testing how large-scale pandemics affect the financial markets. Using hand-collected data at the firm level, I find that managers systematically underestimated their exposure to pandemics in their SEC-mandated risk factors, and the vast majority of firms decreased in value at the pandemic's onset. I also find that the pandemic triggered unprecedented changes in U.S. employment levels and the values of bonds, commodities, and currencies. These types of findings suggest that pandemics are systemically important to the financial markets. Overall, this study provides some of the first large-scale evidence on how pandemics affect the financial markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schäfer, Holger, Helena Schneider & Sandra Vogel (2020): Kurzarbeit in Europa. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,63), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"Angesichts des Rückgangs der Nachfrage nach Arbeitskräften im Zuge der Corona-Pandemie haben viele Länder Kurzarbeiter-Regelungen eingeführt oder ausgeweitet, um einerseits den Einkommensverlust der Arbeitnehmer zu begrenzen und andererseits den Betrieben den Erhalt der Liquidität zu ermöglichen, sodass sie nicht gleich auf Entlassungen zurückgreifen müssen. Ein simpler Vergleich der Leistungshöhe erscheint kaum sinnvoll – zu unterschiedlich sind die Bedingungen für das Kurzarbeitergeld und die nationalen Sozialsysteme, in die Kurzarbeiterleistungen eingebettet sind." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Sedláček, Petr & Vincent Sterk (2020): Startups and employment following the COVID-19 pandemic. A calculator. In: Covid economics H. 13, S. 178-195.

Abstract

"Early indicators suggest that startup activity is heavily disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated lockdown. At the same time, empirical evidence has shown that such disturbances may have long-lasting effects on aggregate employment. This paper presents a calculator which can be used to compute these effects under different scenarios regarding (i) the number of startups, (ii) the growth potential of startups, and (iii) the survival rate of young firms. We find that employment losses can be substantial and last for more than a decade, even when the assumed slump in startup activity is only short-lived." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Seikel, Daniel (2020): Maßnahmen der EU in der Corona-Krise. Kurzbewertung, Stand 24.04.2020. (WSI Policy Brief / Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut 39), Düsseldorf, 15 S.

Abstract

"Wie können die Corona-Krise in Europa und ihre wirtschaftlichen Folgen bekämpft werden? Der vorliegende WSI Policy Brief liefert eine erste Analyse der bereits beschlossenen Maßnahmen der Europäischen Union (EU) sowie weiterer, aktuell diskutierter Handlungsoptionen (Stand 24. April 2020). Für eine Bewertung von Krisenmaßnahmen muss zunächst analysiert werden, um was für eine Art von Krise es sich bei der Corona-Krise handelt (Kapitel 2), welche Probleme konkret anzugehen sind und welche davon im Rahmen der EU gelöst werden müssen (Kapitel 3). Danach erfolgt eine kurze Zusammenfassung und Bewertung der einzelnen Maßnahmen (Kapitel 4). Abschließend wird auf die Notwendigkeit eines neuen Managements von Staatsverschuldung für die Zeit nach der Krise eingegangen (Kapitel 5). Die politischen Diskussionen auf der europäischen Ebene werden in den nächsten Wochen fortgesetzt. Wenn neue Sachstände vorliegen, wird der WSI Policy Brief gegebenenfalls aktualisiert" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Sforza, Alessandro & Marina Steininger (2020): Globalization in the Time of COVID-19. (CESifo working paper 8184), München, 25 S.

Abstract

"The economic effects of a pandemic crucially depend on the extend to which countries are connected in global production networks. In this paper we incorporate production barriers induced by COVID-19 shock into a Ricardian model with sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods and sectoral heterogeneity in production. We use our model to quantify the welfare effect of the disruption in production that started in China and then quickly spread across the world. We find that the COVID-19 shock has a considerable impact on most economies in the world, especially when a share of the labor force is quarantined. Moreover, we show that global production linkages have a clear role in magnifying the effect of the production shock. Finally, the economic effects of the COVID-19 shock are heterogeneous across sectors, regions and countries, depending on the geographic distribution of industries in each region and country and their degree of integration in the global production network." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Sinn, Hans-Werner (2020): Der Corona-Schock. Wie die Wirtschaft überlebt. Freiburg i. Br.: Herder, 219 S.

Abstract

"Die Corona-Pandemie hatte einen historischen Einbruch der Wirtschaft zur Folge. Mit Hans-Werner Sinn äußert sich der bekannteste deutschsprachige Ökonom fundiert und streitbar dazu, wie wir diesen Crash überwinden oder ihn sogar dazu nutzen, um längst fällige Korrekturen der Wirtschaftspolitik in Deutschland und Europa vorzunehmen. Nur dann hat auch die europäische Idee, die im Augenblick gefährdet ist wie nie, eine Überlebenschance." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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Snower, Dennis J. (2020): The socioeconomics of pandemics policy. (Global economy & development working paper 138), Washington, DC, 18 S.

Abstract

"In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the world have provided a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. While this policy is welcome in the short run, it does not address the underlying problem in the medium and long run. The reason is that the pandemic has not given rise to a generalized shortfall in aggregate demand. Rather, it has generated a Great Economic Mismatch, characterized by deficient demand for things requiring close physical interactions among people and deficient supply of things compatible with social distancing, where appropriate. Expansive macroeconomic policy can stimulate aggregate demand, but when social distancing is enforced, it will not stimulate production and consumption whenever this demand is satisfied through physically interactive activities. To overcome the Great Economic Mismatch, “read-aptation policies” are called for. In the medium run, these policies promote a redirection of resources to activities compatible with social distancing; in the long run, these policies make economies more resilient to unforeseen shocks that generate a Great Economic Mismatch. Once the pandemic is over, a more profound rethinking of decision-making—in public policy, business and civil society—is called for. First, decisionmakers will need to supplement the current focus on economic efficiency with greater emphasis on economic resilience. Second, economic policies and business strategies will need to focus less on incentives for selfish individuals and more on the mobilization of people’s prosocial motives. Finally, to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, policymakers at local, national and global levels will need to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, with the aid of two powerful tools that humans throughout history have used to coordinate their efforts: identity-shaping narratives and institutions of multi-level governance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Stepanok, Ignat (2020): Germany's trade with China at the beginning of the global COVID-19 pandemic (Series "COVID-19 Crisis: Consequences for the Labour Market"). In: IAB-Forum H. 01.10.2020 Nürnberg, o. Sz., 2020-09-29.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world economy in an unprecedented way, with international trade being no exception. Studying trade flows between China and Germany in February 2020 gives a clear picture of what happens when a major shock affects a single trading partner. It helps us learn what to expect from similar future, more geographically limited crisis situations. Studying this particular time window also gives a glimpse into the beginning of a global crisis, which holds the potential to lead to long-lasting changes in the international production networks and division of labour." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Stephany, Fabian, Niklas Stoehr, Philipp Darius, Leonie Neuhäuser, Ole Teutloff & Fabian Braesemann (2020): The CoRisk-Index: A data-mining approach to identify industry-specific risk assessments related to COVID-19 in real-time. Version 1.2 - 30th March 2020. (arXiv papers), 20 S. DOI:10.48550/arXiv.2003.12432

Abstract

"While the coronavirus spreads around the world, governments are attempting to reduce contagion rates at the expense of negative economic effects. Market expectations have plummeted, foreshadowing the risk of a global economic crisis and mass unemployment. Governments provide huge financial aid programmes to mitigate the expected economic shocks. To achieve higher effectiveness with cyclical and fiscal policy measures, it is key to identify the industries that are most in need of support. In this study, we introduce a data-mining approach to measure the industry-specific risks related to COVID-19. We examine company risk reports filed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This data set allows for a real-time analysis of risk assessments. Preliminary findings suggest that the companies' awareness towards corona-related business risks is ahead of the overall stock market developments by weeks. The risk reports differ substantially between industries, both in magnitude and in nature. Based on natural language processing techniques, we can identify corona-related risk topics and their perceived relevance for different industries. Our approach allows to distinguish the industries by their reported risk awareness towards COVID-19. The preliminary findings are summarised an online index. The CoRisk-Index tracks the industry-specific risk assessments related to the crisis, as it spreads through the economy. The tracking tool could provide relevant empirical data to inform models on the immediate economic effects of the crisis. Such complementary empirical information could help policy-makers to effectively target financial support and to mitigate the economic shocks of the current crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Wachter, Till von (2020): The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 34, H. 4, S. 168-194. DOI:10.1257/jep.34.4.168

Abstract

"Unlucky young workers entering the labor market in recessions suffer a range of medium- to long-term consequences. This paper summarizes the findings of the growing empirical literature on this subject and uses it to assess economic models of career development. The literature finds large initial effects on earnings, labor supply, and wages that tend to fade after ten to fifteen years in the labor market, and that are accompanied by changes in occupation, job mobility, and employer characteristics. Adverse initial labor market entry also has persistent effects on a range of social outcomes, including timing and completed fertility, marriage and divorce, criminal activities, attitudes, and risky alcohol consumption. There is also evidence that early exposure to depressed labor market lowers health and raises mortality in middle age, patterns accompanied by a reopening of earnings gaps." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2020): Workforce Principles for the COVID-19 Pandemic. Stakeholder Capitalism in a Time of Crisis. White paper. Cologny/Geneva, 6 S.

Abstract

"As organizations address the longer-term implications of COVID-19, it is imperative to focus on the needs of all stakeholders — from customers to suppliers to shareholders and, specifically, employees to ensure no one is left behind. This crisis presents an opportunity to take bold actions and show leadership and solidarity by applying the principles and guidelines set out in this document to better balance short-term crisis measures against the medium- and long-term objectives of responsible employers. These actions can include protecting salaries and benefits or providing learning opportunities to make progress against reskilling and workforce transformation objectives. Such an approach enables organizations to earn the trust of employees and unlock the discretionary effort needed to move the organization forward in turbulent times." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Winters, Jutta; Regina Konle-Seidl (interviewte Person) (2020): Short-time work in Europe: Rescue in the coronavirus crisis? An interview with IAB researcher Regina Konle-Seidl (Series "COVID-19 Crisis: Consequences for the Labour Market") (Interview). In: IAB-Forum H. 25.06.2020, o. Sz., 2020-06-23.

Abstract

"The coronavirus pandemic is keeping the economy on edge. To overcome the crisis, 33 of 36 OECD countries are now using short-time working schemes. All are pursuing the same goal of avoiding redundancies and retaining jobs. While the objective is the same in all countries, each county nevertheless tries to balance out a high use of the instrument and low deadweight effects and abuse. The legal requirements vary considerably across European countries. In an interview, the IAB researcher Regina Konle-Seidl explains the most important differences, discusses the advantages and disadvantages of short-time work, draws lessons from the use of this instrument in earlier times of crisis, and depicts first developments of short-time work and unemployment figures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria, Penny Mealy, Anton Pichler, François Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer (2020): Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective. In: Covid economics H. 6, S. 65-103.

Abstract

"We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyze the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labor Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 22% of the US economy's GDP, jeopardise 24% of jobs and reduce total wage income by 17%. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to have output constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply and demandside shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks – we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2020): Wie kann die Arbeitslosenkurve abgeflacht werden? Strategien zur Einkommensstützung und zur Förderung einer raschen Arbeitsmarkterholung. (Tackling coronavirus (COVID-19): Contributing to a global effort), Paris, 19 S.

Abstract

"Dieses Themenpapier analysiert, welche Rolle arbeitsplatzerhaltende Maßnahmen, einschließlich Kurzarbeitsregelungen, und das Arbeitslosenversicherungssystem spielen, um die Erwerbseinkommen der Arbeitskräfte zu stützen und sicherzustellen, dass sich die Beschäftigung rasch erholt, sobald der durch COVID-19 ausgelöste Shutdown nicht systemrelevanter Wirtschaftsbereiche gelockert wird. Angesichts der großen Ungewissheit hinsichtlich der längerfristigen Folgen der Corona-Krise für die Ressourcenreallokation zwischen den einzelnen Wirtschaftsbereichen und Unternehmen besteht die Herausforderung darin, diejenigen Arbeitsplätze zu erhalten, die auf mittlere Sicht tragfähig sind. Zugleich muss es Arbeitskräften in angeschlagenen Unternehmen und Branchen ermöglicht werden, in jene mit besseren Wachstumsaussichten zu wechseln. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden eine Reihe von Politikoptionen benannt, die auf ein gesundes Verhältnis zwischen Arbeitsplatzerhaltung und Reallokation abzielen, indem die Parameter bestehender Maßnahmen dem Verlauf der Corona-Krise entsprechend angepasst werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

(2020): COVID-19 and world of work. Impacts and responses. (International Labour Organization note), Genf, 15 S.

Abstract

"The world of work is being profoundly affected by the global virus pandemic. In addition to the threat to public health, the economic and social disruption threatens the long-term livelihoods and wellbeing of millions. The ILO and its constituents – Governments, workers and employers – will play a crucial role in combating the outbreak, ensuring the safety of individuals and the sustainability of businesses and jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): Coronavirus: The world economy at risk. OECD Interim Economic Assessment. (OECD economic outlook Interim Report March 2020), Paris, 15 S. DOI:10.1787/7969896b-en

Abstract

"Covid-19 is spreading from China to other regions causing human suffering and economic disruption. It is raising health concerns and the risk of wider restrictions on the movement of people, goods and services, falls in business and consumer confidence and slowing production. The Interim Outlook presents both a best-case scenario in which the extent of the coronavirus is broadly contained and a “domino” prospect of contagion that is more widespread. In both cases, the OECD calls on governments to act immediately to limit the spread of the coronavirus, protect people and businesses from its effects and shore up demand in the economy." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): OECD-Wirtschaftsausblick 2020, Ausgabe 1 (Kurzfassung). In: OECD-Wirtschaftsausblick H. 107, S. 1-222. DOI:10.1787/e0331726-de

Abstract

"In ihrem Wirtschaftsausblick analysiert die OECD zweimal jährlich die wichtigsten wirtschaftlichen Trends und die Aussichten für die kommenden zwei Jahre. Der Wirtschaftsausblick liefert einen in sich stimmigen Satz von Projektionen zu gesamtwirtschaftlicher Produktion, Beschäftigung, Preisentwicklung, Haushaltssalden und Leistungsbilanzen. Die Analysen und Projektionen erstrecken sich auf alle OECD-Mitgliedsländer sowie ausgewählte Nichtmitgliedsländer. Diese deutschsprachige Ausgabe enthält eine Gesamtbeurteilung der Wirtschaftslage, eine Reihe von Themenpapieren zu makroökonomischen und strukturpolitischen Fragen im Zusammenhang mit der Corona-Pandemie sowie ein Kapitel, in dem die Entwicklungen und Projektionen für 15 ausgewählte OECD-Mitgliedsländer und Nichtmitgliedsländer zusammengefasst sind." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

(2020): Wirtschaft stellt sich auf Leben mit dem Virus ein. In: Konjunktur aktuell, Jg. 8, H. 2, S. 26-62.

Abstract

"Die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich aufgrund der Corona-Pandemie in einer tiefen Rezession. Der Produktionseinbruch dürfte weltweit im ersten Halbjahr 2020 deutlich tiefer sein als infolge der Finanzkrise im Winterhalbjahr 2008/2009. Auch die deutsche Wirtschaft wurde von der Pandemie schwer getroffen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2020 um 5,1% sinken und im kommenden Jahr um 3,2% zulegen. In Ostdeutschland dürfte der Einbruch der Wirtschaft infolge der Corona-Pandemie mit 3,2% im Jahr 2020 schwächer ausfallen als in Gesamtdeutschland." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter)

Abstract

"The world of work is being profoundly affected by the global virus pandemic. In addition to the threat to public health, the economic and social disruption threatens the long-term livelihoods and wellbeing of millions. The ILO and its constituents – Governments, workers and employers – will play a crucial role in combating the outbreak, ensuring the safety of individuals and the sustainability of businesses and jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The devastating losses in working hours caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have brought a “massive” drop in labour income for workers around the world, says the International Labour Organization (ILO) in its latest assessment of the effects of the pandemic on the world of work. Global labour income is estimated to have declined by 10.7 per cent, or US$ 3.5 trillion, in the first three quarters of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. This figure excludes income support provided through government measures. The biggest drop was in lower-middle income countries, where the labour income losses reached 15.1 per cent, with the Americas the hardest hit region at 12.1 per cent. The ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Sixth edition , says that the global working hour losses in the first nine months of 2020 have been “considerably larger” than estimated in the previous edition of the Monitor (issued on 30 June). " (Author's Abstract, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"Damit der Aufbau nachhaltig, gerecht, ausgewogen, inklusiv und fair für alle Mitgliedstaaten ist, schlägt die Europäische Kommission vor, ein neues Aufbauinstrument namens „Next Generation EU“ zu schaffen, das in einen leistungsstarken und modernen umgestalteten EU-Haushalt eingebettet ist." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"The unfolding COVID-19 crisis is challenging people, households and firms in unprecedented ways. Containing the pandemic and protecting people is the top priority. But disrupted supply chains, containment measures that are limiting economic and social interactions and falling demand put people's jobs and livelihoods at risk. An immediate employment and social-policy response is needed. Reducing workers' exposure to COVID-19 in the workplace and ensuring access to income support for sick and quarantined workers are essential. Working parents need help with unforeseen care needs as schools are closing and elderly relatives are particularly vulnerable. Short-time work schemes can help protect jobs and provide relief to struggling companies, as evidenced during the last financial and economic crisis. Workers who lose their jobs and incomes, including those in non-standard forms of employment, need income support. As companies are suffering from a sharp drop in demand, rapid financial support through grants or credits can help them bridge liquidity gaps. Many affected countries introduced or announced bold measures over the last days and weeks, often with a focus on supporting the most vulnerable who are bearing a disproportionate share of the burden. This note, and the accompanying policy table, contributes to evidence-sharing on the role and effectiveness of various policy tools." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): Gender equality index 2020. Digitalisation and the future of work. (Gender equality index …), Vilnius, 178 S. DOI:10.2839/79077

Abstract

"The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was a wake-up call for gender equality in Europe. It reminded us about everyday gender inequalities in our society that often go unnoticed – from the shortage of men working in the care sector to the reality of violence facing women in abusive relationships. While it will still take time to fully understand the consequences of COVID-19 for gender equality, it’s clear that it poses a serious threat to the fragile achievements made over the past decade. This year, the Index report focuses on the effects of digitalisation on the world of work and the consequences for gender equality. This topic is extremely relevant in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ways in which the working lives of women and men have been affected by it. New types of jobs and innovative ways of working through online platforms were analysed to gain an understanding of who is doing these jobs and whether they help or hinder gender equality. With a detailed analysis for the EU and each Member State, the Index shows country-level achievements and areas for improvement. More than ever, policymakers need the data that the Index provides. We hope that our findings will help Europe’s leaders to design future solutions that are inclusive and promote gender equality in our post-COVID-19 society." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"In ihrer am 13. Februar 2020 veröffentlichten Winterprognose prognostizierte die Europäische Kommission für 2020 und 2021 ein gedämpftes BIP-Wachstum in der EU und im Euro-Währungsgebiet von 1,4 % bzw. 1,2 %. Angesichts der sehr spärlichen Daten, die zu diesem Zeitpunkt zur Verfügung standen, wurde in dieser Prognose von einem mäßigen vorübergehenden Schock ausgegangen, der auf der Annahme beruhte, dass die mittlerweile als Pandemie eingestufte Epidemie auf China beschränkt bliebe und im ersten Quartal 2020 ihren Höhepunkt erreichen würde, sodass nur sehr begrenzte weltweite Spillover-Effekte entstünden. Allerdings wurde in der Prognose darauf hingewiesen, dass die Ausbreitung des Virus ein erhebliches Abwärtsrisiko für die Weltwirtschaft und die europäische Wirtschaft darstellt. Das COVID-19-Virus hat inzwischen eine Pandemie verursacht, und die Kommissionsdienststellen haben neue Schätzungen der potenziellen wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen vorgenommen. Dabei handelt es sich nicht um eine Prognose, sondern um Typszenarien, die auf aktualisierten Annahmen und Modellbildungstechniken beruhen. Hier muss betont werden, dass in Bezug auf das Ausmaß der Auswirkungen der Krise auf die Wirtschaft nach wie vor große Unsicherheit besteht, da diese unter anderem von der Ausbreitung der Pandemie und der Fähigkeit der Behörden abhängen wird, rasch zu handeln, um die gesundheitlichen und wirtschaftlichen Folgen einzudämmen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"This Edition of the ILO Monitor highlights the urgent need for policy actions that take into account the impact of the crisis on young people so as to avoid losing the productive potential of a whole generation." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

(2020): World Economic Outlook, April 2020. Chapter 1: The Great Lockdown. (World economic outlook), Washington, DC, IX, 25 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by -3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008-09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): COVID-19 crisis and the informal economy. Immediate responses and policy challenges. (ILO brief), Genf, 8 S.

Abstract

"This policy brief focuses on the immediate responses that countries can take to address the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on the informal economy at its early stages, while pointing to areas that will need sustained investment in the future in order to ensure well-being and decent work for workers and economic undertakings in the informal economy. This brief will be followed by another on mid- to long-term responses, once the rapid propagation phase of the virus has passed." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): Die Auswirkungen von COVID-19 auf den Tourismussektor. (Sektor-Kurzdossier der IAO), Genf, 12 S.

Abstract

"Der Ausbruch von COVID-19 hat verheerende Auswirkungen auf die Weltwirtschaft und die Beschäftigung. Die Tourismusindustrie wurde von den zur Eindämmung der Pandemie erforderlichen Maßnahmen hart getroffen und dürfte in absehbarer Zeit wohl kaum zur Normalität zurückkehren. Auch nach der schrittweisen Aufhebung der Eindämmungsmaßnahmen werden die überlebenden Unternehmen weiterhin vor den Herausforderungen stehen, die mit einer wohl eher langsamen Erholung verbunden sind. Nach Schätzungen der IAO könnten aufgrund der Pandemie 305 Millionen Arbeitsplätze (Vollzeitäquivalente) verloren gehen, viele davon in der Tourismusbranche. Aufgrund der Pandemie und der weltweiten Bemühungen zu ihrer Eindämmung könnte die internationale Tourismuswirtschaft um 45 bis 70 Prozent schrumpfen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"Was verbirgt sich hinter „SURE“ und warum schlägt die Kommission dieses Instrument vor? Das neue Instrument zur vorübergehenden Unterstützung bei der Minderung von Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiken in Ausnahmesituationen (SURE - Support mitigating Unemployment Risks in Emergency) soll dazu beitragen, durch die Coronavirus-Pandemie bedrohte Arbeitsplätze und Erwerbstätige zu schützen. Die finanzielle Unterstützung soll sich auf insgesamt bis zu 100 Mrd. EUR belaufen und den Mitgliedstaaten in Form von EU-Darlehen zu günstigen Bedingungen gewährt werden. Solche Darlehen sollen den Mitgliedstaaten dabei helfen, den plötzlichen Anstieg der öffentlichen Ausgaben zu bewältigen, der mit ihren Beschäftigungserhaltungsmaßnahmen einhergeht. Sie sollen es den Mitgliedstaaten insbesondere ermöglichen, die Kosten zu decken, die ihnen unmittelbar durch die Einführung oder Ausweitung nationaler Kurzarbeitsregelungen sowie ähnlicher Maßnahmen für Selbstständige entstehen, die sie in Reaktion auf die derzeitige Coronavirus-Pandemie ergriffen haben." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"The Monitor gives updated projections for the number of working hours lost globally as a result of the labour market disruption caused by COVID-19. It also looks at the devastating impact on 1.6 billion informal economy workers and more than 430 million enterprises worldwide." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"Cedefop’s community of apprenticeship experts launched an internal consultation on how European countries are managing apprenticeships in the current health emergency due to the coronavirus pandemic. Twenty five experts contributed to this exercise from: Austria, Belgium (fr, fl, de), Bulgaria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK-England and UK-Wales. A synthesis of the information shared was produced. The experts expressed their individual professional opinion, not that of their institution or Cedefop’s." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): The impact of COVID-19 on women. (Policy brief / United Nations), 16 S.

Abstract

"The year 2020, marking the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Beijing Platform for Action, was intended to be ground-breaking for gender equality. Instead, with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic even the limited gains made in the past decades are at risk of being rolled back. The pandemic is deepening pre-existing inequalities, exposing vulnerabilities in social, political and economic systems which are in turn amplifying the impacts of the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2020): Quarterly Review of Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) - March 2020. (Employment and social developments in Europe : Quarterly review), Brüssel, 38 S.

Abstract

"This is the first quarterly review since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and public health crisis, which has led to an abrupt change of employment developments and social outlook in the EU as well as globally. This review is based on the latest data available until the end of January 2020. It can hence not yet depict the most recent developments related to the pandemic and its socio-economic consequences. The available data show that developments until January 2020 have been positive, with 209 million people in employment in the EU in 2019, of which 160 million in the euro area. Compared to spring 2013, this meant 15 and 12 million, respectively, more jobs. In January 2020, in the EU there was about 2.1 million fewer young people unemployed compared to the peak of February 2013." (Authors's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated, while the highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels, even in the best scenario, and risks seeing continuing large scale job losses, warns the International Labour Organization (ILO). According to the ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work: 5th Edition, there was a 14 per cent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs (based on a 48-hour working week). This is a sharp increase on the previous Monitor’s estimate (issued on May 27), of a 10.7 per cent drop (305 million jobs)." (Author's Abstract, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

(2020): OECD employment outlook 2020. Worker Security and the COVID-19 Crisis. (OECD employment outlook), Paris, 338 S. DOI:10.1787/1686c758-en

Abstract

"The 2020 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook focuses on worker security and the COVID-19 crisis. Chapter 1 provides an initial assessment of the labour market consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting economic crisis. It also presents an overview of the emergency labour market and social policy measures implemented by OECD countries and discusses directions for further policy adaptation as countries move out of lockdown. Chapter 2 investigates the uneven access to unemployment benefits for workers in part-time and less stable jobs, which often accentuates the hardship they face in times of crisis, and discusses the difficult balance between work incentives and income security. Chapter 3 provides a comparative review of employment protection legislation (EPL) across OECD countries by developing a new version of the OECD's EPL indicators, which now include an improved assessment of regulations for collective redundancies, unfair dismissals and enforcement issues. Chapter 4 takes a fresh look at job polarisation, and in particular the hollowing out of jobs in middle-skill occupations. Finally, Chapter 5 examines the changing labour market outcomes for middle-educated vocational education and training graduates, whose labour market perspectives are challenged by the contraction of jobs in middle-skill occupations." (Author's Abstract, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"Since the first ILO Monitor, the COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated in terms of intensity and expanded its global reach. Full or partial lockdown measures are now affecting almost 2.7 billion workers, representing around 81 per cent of the world's workforce. In the current situation, businesses across a range of economic sectors are facing catastrophic losses, which threaten their operations and solvency, especially among smaller enterprises, while millions of workers are vulnerable to income loss and layoffs." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Noy, Ilan & Sharlan Shields (2019): The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic. A Retroactive Examination of Economic Costs. (ADB economics working paper series 591), Manila, 15 S. DOI:10.22617/WPS190469-2

Abstract

"The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic was the first epidemic of the 21st century to pose a threat to global health and generate considerable panic across the globe. Fortunately, due to the rapid containment of the epidemic, both the harm to the public’s health and economic losses were not as considerable as many feared they might be. After a short period of economic turmoil, lasting a few months, normal patterns of economic activity were resumed. However, during this period there were dramatic reductions in air travel and tourism, and leisure and/or hospitality services in the areas affected by SARS. These losses were driven by public avoidance, which contributed to a disproportionate aggregate disease prevention cost. This has led to concerns that an outbreak exhibiting higher mortality rates could result in a catastrophic impact on the global economy caused by even more drastic behavioral responses. These behavioral responses were related to individual perspectives about the risk of contraction and death, as well as the perceived costs and benefits of disease avoidance measures. How individuals form these avoidance responses has a significant role in determining the pathway of an epidemic. When situating these considerations within the trend of increasing emergence of zoonotic diseases and increasing globalization, analyses of the behavioral reaction to the SARS epidemic are potentially important. With this in mind, critical analysis of government intervention mechanisms is considered to address how cost-effective intervention might alter behavioral responses to lead to more positive outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))