Zitatform

Kikuchi, Shinnosuke (2024): Automation and Offshoring on Wage Inequality in Japan. (RIETI discussion paper 24046), Tokyo, 24 S.

Abstract

"I examine the effect of task displacement from automation technology and offshoring on wage inequality using data for Japan since 1980. First, I do not find evidence that task displacement from automation increases wage inequality, which contrasts with the finding for the US. Second, I find that the rise in offshoring has distributional consequences and is progressive after the mid-1990s. The surge in offshoring is concentrated in industries where ex-ante low-wage workers work and disproportionally increases their wages. This increase in wages is due to the increases in monthly payroll, decreases in hours worked, decreases in employment rate, and decreases in the share of offshorable occupations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Kristal, Tali, Efrat Herzberg-Druker & Adena White (2024): Is the wage premium on using computers at work gender-specific? In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 89. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2024.100890

Abstract

"Past research on the relationship between computers and wages has revealed two stylized facts. First, workers who use a computer at work earn higher wages than similar workers who do not (termed as ‘the computer wage premium’). Second, women are more likely to use a computer at work than are men. Given the recognized computer wage premium and women’s advantage in computer use at work, we ask: Is the wage premium on using computers at work gender- or non-gender-specific? Given gendered processes operating at both the occupational and within-occupation levels, we expect that returns to computer usage are gender-bias. This contrasts the skill-biased technological change (SBTC) theory assumption that the theorized pathways through which computers boost earnings are non-gender-specific productivity-enhancing mechanisms. Analyzing occupational data on computer use at work from O*NET attached to the 1979–2016 Current Population Surveys (CPS) and individual-level data from the 2012 Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), we find that the computer wage premium is biased in favor of men at the occupation level. We conclude by suggesting that computer-based technologies relate to reproducing old forms of gender pay inequality due to gendered processes that operate mainly at the structural level (i.e., occupations) rather than at the individual level." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

Zitatform

Parmentier, Lucas (2024): Robotization and returns to tasks. In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 44, H. 4, S. 1545-1551.

Abstract

"I provide new evidence of the impacts of robotization on the returns to tasks in US labor markets between 1990 and 2007. I find that the adoption of one robot per thousand workers increases the changes in the returns to abstract and routine tasks by 0.049 and 0.066 percentage points, respectively, relative to manual tasks. These magnitudes imply that the adoption of one robot per thousand workers has substantial effects on wages since it increases wages by 1.70% due to the positive impact of robotization on the returns to abstract tasks, and by 3.76% due to the positive effects on the returns to routine tasks. The results are robust to various specifications." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Richiardi, Matteo, Westhoff Leonie, Astarita Caterina, Ernst Ekkehard, Fenwick Clare, Khabirpour Neysan & Pelizzari Lorenzo (2024): The impact of a decade of digital transformation on employment, wages, and inequality in the EU: A “conveyor belt” hypothesis. (CeMPA working paper series / Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis (CeMPA) 5/24), Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research 54 S.

Abstract

"We study the effects of digital transformation in the EU on individual employment outcomes, wage growth, and income inequality, during the decade 2010-2019. Our results allow us to formulate a “conveyor belt” hypothesis, whereas digital skills are important for finding a job, but less so for retaining it. The ability of out-of-work individuals with higher digital skills to jump back on the labour market is reduced for those with higher education, suggesting a faster depreciation of their digital skills. A similar effect, although of limited size, is found for earning growth: out-of-work individuals with higher digital skills are not only more likely to find a job, but experience higher earning growth, compared to their peers with lower digital skills. Our results point to a vulnerability of workers “left behind” from the digital transformation and the labour market. The overall effects on inequality are, however, limited." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Stepanok, Ignat & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie (2024): Skill Supply, Technology Diffusion and the Labor Market. In: German Economic Review, Jg. 25, H. 2, S. 101-125., 2024-05-28. DOI:10.1515/ger-2023-0098

Abstract

"We analyze the short and long-run effects of an increase in the skill supply on skill-specific wages and unemployment in a model with endogenous, nonlinear diffusion of a general purpose technology (GPT) and labor market frictions. We calibrate and simulate the model using the trend rise in relative skill supply in the U.S. over two decades starting in the early 1970s. The transitional dynamics of the model show (i) an initial slump and long-run rise in the relative wage of high-skill labor and (ii) a long-run rise in the relative level of unemployment of low-skill versus high-skill labor. An increase in the number of skilled individuals reduces hiring costs and increases the incentive for firms to engage in the costly adoption of a new GPT. Stronger labor market rigidity and higher worker bargaining power are shown to have similar effects on relative wages and unemployment: changes in relative wages are more pronounced, whereas the response of relative unemployment is muted. The exact opposite effects are found in the case of a higher degree of substitution between products." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku; © De Gruyter) ((en))

Zitatform

Tan, Joanne (2024): Multidimensional heterogeneity and matching in a frictional labor market - An application to polarization. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 90. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102604

Abstract

"This paper examines the role that changes in production technology, namely computerization, have played on labor market inequality in the US from the late 1980s to the 2010s. It also demonstrates that such technological change is consistent with the timing of labor market polarization in the US, including the end of the decline in 50∕10 wage percentile ratio and the slowdown of employment growth in high-wage jobs from the 2000s. The paper does so using a model with two key ingredients: 1) directed search and 2) two-sided multidimensional heterogeneity. Calibration results show that the complementarity between a workers’ cognitive skills and the cognitive task intensity of jobs increased while that between manual skill and tasks did not. The full model can fully account for the rise and fall of the 90∕50 and 50∕10 wage percentile ratios respectively. It also generates 72.6 percent of the rise in employment share of high-paying jobs relative to middling jobs and 69 percent of the fall in employment share of middling jobs relative to low-paying jobs. The paper suggests that the end of the decline in the 50∕10 wage ratio may be due to rank-switching between workers across the wage distribution from the 2000s, while the slowdown of employment growth in high-wage jobs may result from the trade-off between the returns to applying for high-wage jobs and the likelihood of being hired." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

Zitatform

Acemoglu, Daron, Hans R. A. Koster & Ceren Ozgen (2023): Robots and Workers: Evidence from the Netherlands. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31009), Cambridge, Mass, 60 S.

Abstract

"We estimate the effects of robot adoption on firm-level and worker-level outcomes in the Netherlands using a large employer-employee panel dataset spanning 2009-2020. Our firm-level results confirm previous findings, with positive effects on value added and hours worked for robot-adopting firms and negative outcomes on competitors in the same industry. Our worker-level results show that directly-affected workers (e.g., blue-collar workers performing routine or replaceable tasks) face lower earnings and employment rates, while other workers indirectly gain from robot adoption. We also find that the negative effects from competitors' robot adoption load on directly-affected workers, while other workers benefit from this industry-level robot adoption. Overall, our results highlight the uneven effects of automation on the workforce." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bowlus, Audra, Lance Lochner, Chris Robinson & Eda Suleymanoglu (2023): Wages, Skills, and Skill-Biased Technical Change. The Canonical Model Revisited. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 58, H. 6, S. 1783-1819. DOI:10.3368/jhr.0617-8889r1

Abstract

"While influential, the canonical supply–demand model of the wage returns to skill has faced challenges, including theoretically wrong-signed elasticities of substitution, counterintuitive paths for skill-biased technical change (SBTC), and an inability to account for observed deviations in college premia for younger versus older workers. We show that using improved estimates of skill prices and supplies that account for variation in skills across cohorts helps to explain the college premium differences between younger versus older workers and produces better out-of-sample predictions, positive elasticities of substitution between high- and low-skill workers, and a more modest role for SBTC. We further show that accounting for recession-induced jumps and trend adjustments in SBTC and linking SBTC to direct measures of information technology investment expenditures yield an improved fit, no puzzling slowdown in SBTC during the early 1990s, and a higher elasticity of substitution between high- and low-skill workers than previous ad hoc assumptions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))

Zitatform

Brall, Franziska & Ramona Schmid (2023): Automation, Robots and Wage Inequality in Germany. A decomposition Analysis. In: Labour, Jg. 37, H. 1, S. 33-95. DOI:10.1111/labr.12236

Abstract

"We conduct a decomposition analysis based on recentred influence function (RIF) regressions to disentangle the relative importance of automation and robotization for wage inequality in the manufacturing sector in Germany between 1996 and 2017. Our measure of automation threat combines occupation-specific scores of automation risk with sector-specific robot densities. We find that besides changes in the composition of individual characteristics, structural shifts among different automation threat groups are a non-negligible factor associated with wage inequality between 1996 and 2017. Moreover, the increase in wage dispersion among the different automation threat groups has contributed significantly to higher wage inequality in the 1990s and 2000s." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))

Zitatform

Carbonero, Francesco, Enzo Weber & Christian J. Offermanns (2023): The Fall of the Labor Income Share: the Role of Technological Change and Hiring Frictions. In: Review of Economic Dynamics, Jg. 49, S. 251-268., 2022-01-09. DOI:10.1016/j.red.2022.09.001

Abstract

"Die Veränderungen in der funktionalen Einkommensverteilung erhalten in der Forschung viel Aufmerksamkeit. Wir dokumentieren einen durchschnittlichen Rückgang des labour share (Anteil des Faktors Arbeit an der Einkommensverteilung) von 8 Prozentpunkten für acht europäische Länder und die USA zwischen 1980 und 2007. Wir untersuchen theoretisch und empirisch zwei Mechanismen: Substitution zwischen Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT) und Arbeit sowie Friktionen bei Beschäftigungsanpassungen. Wir finden, dass Substitution zwischen IKT und Arbeit wesentlich den Rückgang des labour share erklären kann. Wenn Arbeitsmarktfriktionen berücksichtigt werden, übernehmen diese allerdings einen Teil der Erklärungskraft. Insbesondere spielen Einstellungskosten in Europa eine größere Rolle als in den USA. Schließlich wird die Subsitutionselastizität zwischen IKT und Arbeit als Funktion institutioneller und struktureller Variablen modelliert und festgestellt, dass sie mit dem Anteil von Routine-Berufen positiv und mit dem Anteil hochqualifizierter Arbeiter negativ korreliert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Ghosh, Pallab & Zexuan Liu (2023): The puzzle of changes in employment and wages in routine task-intensive occupations. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 65, H. 4, S. 1965-1980. DOI:10.1007/s00181-023-02394-x

Abstract

"Autor and Dorn (Am Econ Rev 103(5):1553–1597, 2013) provide an explanation of the polarization of US employment and wages for the period 1980–2005. Using the 1980 Census and 2005 American Community Survey data, this study replicates the estimation results of Autor and Dorn (2013) for employment polarization in all major occupation groups and qualitatively matches the wage polarization results. Also, we investigate the puzzle of why employment and wages changed in opposite directions only in clerical and administrative support occupations in 1980–2005." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

Zitatform

Hutter, Christian & Enzo Weber (2023): Labour market effects of wage inequality and skill-biased technical change. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 55, H. 27, S. 3063-3084., 2022-07-22. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2022.2108751

Abstract

"Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, die Beziehung zwischen Ungleichheit und der Arbeitsmarktentwicklung in Deutschland seit 1975 näher zu beleuchten. Die wichtigsten Theorien sowie auch die empirische Evidenz sind sich zu diesem Thema nicht einig. Unser strukturelles Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodell modelliert explizit den qualifikationsverzerrenden technologischen Fortschritt als Quelle von Ungleichheit. Mithilfe von nicht-rekursiven Langfristrestriktionen werden die Effekte von Ungleichheitsschocks, qualifikationsverzerrenden (und -neutralen) Technologieschocks auf Arbeitsvolumen, reale Lohnkosten und Produktivität identifiziert. Deskriptive Evidenz zeigt, dass der jahrzehntelange Anstieg der Lohnungleichheit im Jahr 2010 gestoppt wurde und sich sogar umkehrte. Dafür ist hauptsächlich die sinkende Ungleichheit in der unteren Hälfte der Lohnverteilung verantwortlich. Die Impuls-Antwort-Analysen verdeutlichen, dass qualifikationsverzerrende Technologieschocks sich negativ auf das Arbeitsvolumen auswirken, die Lohnungleichheit, Lohnkosten und Produktivität allerdings erhöhen. Ungleichheitsschocks haben ebenfalls einen negativen Effekt auf das Arbeitsvolumen, reduzieren zusätzlich aber die Produktivität." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Jurkat, Anne, Rainer Klump & Florian Schneider (2023): Robots and Wages: A Meta-Analysis. (EconStor Preprints 274156), Kiel, 72 S.

Abstract

"The empirical evidence on how industrial robots affect employment and wages is very mixed. Our meta-study helps to uncover the potentially true effect of industrial robots on labor market outcomes and to identify drivers of the heterogeneous empirical results. By means of a systematic literature research, we collected 53 papers containing 2143 estimations for the impact of robot adoption on wages. We observe only limited evidence for a publication bias in favor of negative results. The genuine overall effect of industrial robots on wages is close to zero and both statistically and economically insignificant. With regard to the drivers of heterogeneity, we find that more positive results are obtained if primary estimations a) include more countries in their sample, b) control for ICT capital, demographic developments, or tenure, c) focus on employees that remain employed in the same sector, d) consider only non-manufacturing industries, e) are specified in long differences, and f) come from a peer-reviewed journal article. More negative effects, in turn, are reported for primary estimations that are i) weighted, ii) aggregated at country level, iii) control for trade exposure, iv) and consider only manufacturing industries. We also find some evidence for skill-biased technological change. The magnitude of that effect is albeit small and less robust than one might expect in view of skill-biased technological change. We find little evidence for data dependence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Kostøl, Fredrik B. & Elin Svarstad (2023): Trade Unions and the Process of Technological Change. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102386

Abstract

"We investigate how trade unions influence the process of technological change at the workplace level. Using matched employer-employee data, comprising all Norwegian workplaces and working individuals in the period 2000-2014, we exploit exogeneous changes in the tax rules for union members to identify how changes in unionization rates affect the structural composition of occupations within workplaces. Making a distinction between routine and non-routine workers, based on their estimated probabilities of being replaced by automation technologies, we show how labor unions contribute to raising the relative wage of routine workers over non-routine workers. As routine workers on average have lower earnings than non-routine workers, unions thereby contribute to compress wages at the workplace level. The direct implication of this policy is shown to reduce the relative demand for routine workers over non-routine workers in unionized establishments. However, our results also suggest that unions influence the relative demand for routine workers, conditional on relative wages. Our findings thus give some support to bargaining theories where unions force firms off their demand curves." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

Zitatform

Shimizu, Ryosuke & Shohei Momoda (2023): Does automation technology increase wage? In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 77. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103541

Abstract

"This paper examines the relationship between automation technology and wages. In the model, producers either choose automation or non-automation technology, whichever is more profitable. Furthermore, when producers introduce automation technology, they must pay fixed costs, which differ between industries. The main results of this paper indicate that the increased productivity of automation technology promotes automation, decreases labor income share, and also decreases wages when the level of automation diffusion is sufficiently high." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

Zitatform

Wicht, Alexandra, Nora Müller, Reinhard Pollak & Silke Anger (2023): Gendered wage effects of changes in job tasks: Evidence from Germany. (SocArXiv papers), 26 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/5dcgw

Abstract

"While previous research showed that technological progress and digitization change job Tasks within occupations and that these occupation-level changes in job tasks affect the wage structure and personal wages, little is known about whether individual changes in job Tasks affect personal earnings. Following the task-biased technological change approach, we analyze whether individuals who take on more non-routine job tasks with a low Automation risk (complex and autonomous tasks) are rewarded with higher wages. Accounting for the strong gender segregation of the German labor market, we separately analyze men and women and, due to the rigid German labor market, additionally account for job changes as a potential moderator. We use three-wave panel data covering a period of nine years from the German National Educational Panel Study. Our results from fixed-effects regressions Show that there is substantial heterogeneity in the relationship between changes in non-routine Job tasks and wages by gender and between those who have or have not changed jobs, which is masked when looking at average wage differentials by non-routine job tasks. While both genders benefit from increased task complexity in job changes, the impact is more pronounced for females, helping to slightly narrow the still persistent gender wage gap. However, when taking on more autonomous tasks in job changes, males experience significant benefits, further contributing to the widening of the gender wage gap. In essence, our findings underscore gender-specific monetary returns to increasing non-routine tasks, particularly highlighting the ability of male job changers to monetarize their newly assigned tasks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Willcox, Michael & Brittany Feor (2023): Structural Changes in Canadian Employment from 1997 to 2022. (JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology 2023,08), Sevilla, 33 S.

Abstract

"This paper uses the European Jobs Monitor (2017) jobs' approach to examine the structural changes in employment and wages in Canada between 1997 and 2022. Changes in employment and real wages reveals a long-term pattern of upgrading, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis. There is variation in these patterns within the 25-year period including a shift towards higher quality jobs after the financial crisis and evidence of wage polarisation between 2020 and 2022. Employment and wage trends by sector, sex and age were explored. Employment shifted away from manufacturing towards the healthcare and social assistance, professional, scientific, and technical services, and construction sectors since the late 1990s which accelerated after the global financial crisis. The wage gap and difference in employment shares between men and women has narrowed over time, despite recent widening following the pandemic. Canada's aging population has resulted in a growing share of mature workers in the labour market and in core-age workers becoming more concentrated in mid-to-high wage jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This study is made of two parts: part A and part B. Part A of the study analyses - through 27 country fiches - the extent to which each EU Member State is prepared for ensuring a socially fair digital transformation in the coming years, based on both its current situation and future prospects. In this analysis, key areas of focus include the labor market, digital skills of the population, social protection as well as cross-cutting dimensions, such as the digitalization level of businesses and the quality of digital infrastructures. Part B of the study reviews - through 30 case studies - some of the main actual and potential uses of digital technologies (including AI) by a country’s public sector for improving the design and the delivery of social benefits and active labor market policies, as well as for complementing the monitoring of poverty and income inequality (the case studies analysed are mainly in Member States but also in a few third countries)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Acemoglu, Daron, David Autor, Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo (2022): Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 40, H. S1, S. S293-S340. DOI:10.1086/718327

Abstract

"We study the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor markets using establishment-level data on the near universe of online vacancies in the United States from 2010 onward. There is rapid growth in AI-related vacancies over 2010–18 that is driven by establishments whose workers engage in tasks compatible with AI’s current capabilities. As these AI-exposed establishments adopt AI, they simultaneously reduce hiring in non-AI positions and change the skill requirements of remaining postings. While visible at the establishment level, the aggregate impacts of AI-labor substitution on employment and wage growth in more exposed occupations and industries is currently too small to be detectable." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2022): Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality. In: Econometrica, Jg. 90, H. 5, S. 1973-2016. DOI:10.3982/ECTA19815

Abstract

"We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the U.S. wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from jobs for which they have comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in education wage differentials between 1980 and 2016. The negative relationship between wage changes and task displacement is unaffected when we control for changes in market power, deunionization, and other forms of capital deepening and technology unrelated to automation. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of automation, which incorporate induced changes in industry composition and ripple effects due to task reallocation across different groups. Our quantitative evaluation explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand‐in‐hand with modest productivity gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))