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Dinan, Shannon & Normand Boucher (2023): Disability and Employment Policy in Canada: National Policy Variation for Working Age Individuals. In: Journal of Social Policy, Jg. 52, S. 719-739. DOI:10.1017/S0047279421000878

Abstract

"This article analyses and compares disability policies for working-age individuals in Canada with a focus on the mode of policy provision and type of measure to determine the degree to which direct funding is used in this country. To consider policy diversity in this federal system, policies are compared using a mixed-methods approach. Using quantitative methods, federal, provincial and territorial policies are first compared using hierarchical cluster analysis. This provides evidence of three distinct clusters in Canada according to policy provision and measure type. In a second, qualitative analysis, the disability strategies of four provinces’ (British Columbia, Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec) are compared, to determine over arching policy orientations. Findings indicate that policy provision in Canada largely favours money over services. Furthermore, most provinces emphasize either health or integration measures over substantive measures. Despite these commonalities, significant variation persists across Canada. This extends to poverty and disability reduction strategies with two of the four provinces having a broader orientation while the other two provinces focus specifically on employment as a means of social inclusion. The article concludes with a discussion on the state of employment policies for individuals with a disability in Canada." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Garcia-Cabo, Joaquin, Anna Lipinska & Gaston Navarro (2023): Sectoral shocks, reallocation, and labor market policies. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 156. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104494

Abstract

"Unemployment insurance and wage subsidies are key tools to support labor markets in recessions. We develop a multisector search-and-matching model with on-the-job human capital accumulation to study labor market policy responses to sector-specific shocks. Our calibration accounts for structural differences in labor markets between the United States and the euro area, including a lower job-finding rate in the latter. We use the model to evaluate unemployment insurance and wage subsidy policies in recessions of different duration. After a temporary sector-specific shock, unemployment insurance improves reallocation toward productive sectors at the cost of initially higher unemployment and, thus, human capital destruction. By contrast, wage subsidies reduce unemployment and preserve human capital at the cost of limiting reallocation. In the United States, unemployment insurance is preferred to wage subsidies when it does not distort job creation for too long. In the euro area, wage subsidies are preferred, given the lower job-finding rate and reallocation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Guo, Angela, Pawel Krolikowski & Meifeng Yang (2023): Displaced workers and the pandemic recession. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 226. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111071

Abstract

"Workers displaced during the pandemic recession experienced better earnings and employment outcomes than workers displaced during previous recessions. A sharp recovery in aggregate labor market conditions after the pandemic recession accounts for these better outcomes. The industry and occupation composition of displaced workers, the prevalence of recalls, and increased take-up of unemployment insurance benefits are unlikely explanations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Holzer, Harry J. (2023): Can Workforce Development Help Us Reach Full Employment? (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16624), Bonn, 24 S.

Abstract

"In this paper, I review the potential of workforce development programs to help the US get closer to "full employment." First, I provide some background on workforce development in the US, and also on the aggregate employment/labor force issues that workforce programs may or may not address. Then I review the empirical evidence on job training and other forms of workforce development, in terms of impacts on employment (as opposed to earnings). I briefly consider how the US experience in this regard compares and contrasts with that of other countries in the EU or OECD, and what we might learn from them. I conclude that more and better workforce development could help somewhat to achieve lower unemployment and higher labor force participation in the US, though we also need a range of other policies to achieve these goals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hornstein, Andreas, Marios Karabarbounis & André Kurmann (2023): Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits. (Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 2023-11), Richmond, VA, 65 S. DOI:10.21144/wp23-11

Abstract

"Unemployment insurance (UI) acts both as a disincentive for labor supply and as a demand stimulus which may explain why empirical studies often find limited effects of UI on employment. This paper provides independent estimates of the disincentive effects arising from the largest expansion of UI in U.S. history, the pandemic unemployment benefits. Using high-frequency data on small restaurants and retailers from Homebase, we control for local demand effects by comparing neighboring businesses that largely share the positive impact of UI stimulus. We find that employment in low-wage businesses recovered more slowly than employment in high-wage businesses in labor markets with larger differences in the relative generosity of pandemic UI benefits. According to a labor search model that replicates the estimated employment differences between low- and high-wage businesses, the disincentive effects from the pandemic UI programs held back the aggregate employment recovery by 4.7 percentage points between April and December 2020." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kim, Jaeyoung, Katherine Inge, Beth Keeton, Tim Riesen, Yazmin Castruita-Rios & Timothy N. Tansey (2023): Use of Customized Employment in State Vocational Rehabilitation Programs: A Retrospective Study 2017–2020. In: Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin, Jg. 66, H. 3, S. 186-194. DOI:10.1177/00343552221140335

Abstract

"The purpose of this study was to examine the outcomes of customized employment via an analysis using the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration Case Service Report (RSA-911) from Federal Fiscal Years of 2017 through 2020. The independent variables were demographics, barriers to employment, and types of state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) services, and the dependent variables were competitive integrated employment status and weekly earnings at exit. Descriptive analyses, multiple logistic regression, and hierarchical multiple regression comprised data analysis. The study sample (N = 2,280) was 57.9% male and 42.1% female and had a mean age of 32.69 years (SD = 12.83). Seventy-seven percent identified themselves as White and 46.7% had a cognitive disability. The results of this study indicated that consumers who have cognitive disability and cultural barriers; are migrant farmworkers and/or dependents; and receive job placement assistance, short-term job supports, maintenance services, benefits counseling, and supported employment are more likely to get competitive integrated employment at exit (R2 = .34). Multiple variables were found to be significantly related to weekly earnings at exit and explained 24% of the variance. Rehabilitation counselors should take into consideration the findings of this study to determine from which supports consumers may benefit to attain successful employment goals, particularly for customized employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schludi, Martin; Bob Gregory (interviewte Person) (2023): The first six months expenditure for the Australian JobKeeper scheme lifted total national government expenditure by one quarter (Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic). (Interview with Bob Gregory). In: IAB-Forum H. 31.10.2023 Nürnberg. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20231031.02

Abstract

"Während der Covid-19-Krise führte Australien groß angelegte und leicht umzusetzende Lohnkostenzuschüsse ein. Dieses „JobKeeper-Programm” sollte Entlassungen verhindern. Die Unterschiede zu den europäischen Kurzarbeitsprogrammen sind jedoch frappierend. Im Interview für das IAB-Forum gibt Bob Gregory, emeritierter Professor der Australian National University, Einblicke in den australischen Ansatz und skizziert mögliche Lehren für andere Länder." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Schludi, Martin; Bob Gregory (interviewte Person) (2023): Die Ausgaben für das australische JobKeeper-Programm haben die staatlichen Gesamtausgaben in den ersten sechs Monaten um ein Viertel erhöht (Serie Kurzarbeit: Internationale Erfahrungen während der Covid-19-Krise ). (Interview mit Bob Gregory). In: IAB-Forum H. 31.10.2023 Nürnberg. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20231031.01

Abstract

"Während der Covid-19-Krise führte Australien groß angelegte und leicht umzusetzende Lohnkostenzuschüsse ein. Dieses „JobKeeper-Programm” sollte Entlassungen verhindern. Die Unterschiede zu den europäischen Kurzarbeitsprogrammen sind jedoch frappierend. Im Interview für das IAB-Forum gibt Bob Gregory, emeritierter Professor der Australian National University, Einblicke in den australischen Ansatz und skizziert mögliche Lehren für andere Länder." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Walter, Timo (2023): German labor market reform and the rise of Eastern Europe: dissecting their effects on employment. In: Empirica, Jg. 50, H. 2, S. 351-387. DOI:10.1007/s10663-023-09569-w

Abstract

"From the early 1990s until 2005 the unemployment rate rose in Germany from 7.3 to 11.7%. While the unemployment rate reached its peak in 2005, it decreased steadily in the following years. The fourth stage of the German labor market reform (Hartz IV) was implemented in 2005 with the intent to cut the unemployment rate. This paper investigates the employment and welfare effects of the Hartz IV reform. Moreover, I am interested in the employment impact of German labor market reform due the rise of the East, which is the productivity increase in Germany and Eastern Europe that has fostered joint fast-growing trade. The focus lies on the national and county level (including 402 counties). As the effects on regional labor markets differ and take time, the paper builds on the dynamic and spatial trade model of Caliendo et al. (2019). I find that the Hartz IV reform is responsible for a 25% drop in unemployment, with a particular impact on eastern German counties. The rise of the East leads to an additional positive contribution to the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Autor, David, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron Lutz, Joshua K. Montes, William B. Peterman, David D. Ratner, Daniel Villar Vallenas & Ahu Yildirmaz (2022): The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did it Go There? (NBER working paper 29669), Cambridge, Mass, 46 S. DOI:10.3386/w29669

Abstract

"The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provided small businesses with roughly $800 billion dollars in uncollateralized, low-interest loans during the pandemic, almost all of which will be forgiven. With 93 percent of small businesses ultimately receiving one or more loans, the PPP nearly saturated its market in just two months. We estimate that the program cumulatively preserved between 2 and 3 million job-years of employment over 14 months at a cost of $170K to $257K per job-year retained. These estimates imply that only 23 to 34 percent of PPP dollars went directly to workers who would otherwise have lost jobs; the balance flowed to business owners and shareholders, including creditors and suppliers of PPP-receiving firms. Program incidence was highly regressive, with about three-quarters of PPP funds accruing to the top quintile of households. This compares unfavorably to the other two major pandemic aid programs, enhanced UI benefits and Economic Impact Payments (i.e. stimulus checks). PPP's breakneck scale-up, its high cost per job saved, and its regressive incidence have a common origin: PPP was essentially untargeted because the United States lacked the administrative infrastructure to do otherwise. The more targeted pandemic business aid programs deployed by other high-income countries exemplify what is feasible with better administrative systems. Building similar capacity in the U.S. would enable greatly improved targeting of either employment subsidies or business liquidity when the next pandemic or other large-scale economic emergency occurs, as it surely will." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Binder, Barbara & Andreas Haupt (2022): The fundamental role of tax systems in the relationship between workfare and inequality in the lower half of the income distribution. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 80. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2022.100712

Abstract

"In recent decades, many affluent democracies moved from traditional welfare states to workfare systems. Meanwhile, income inequality developed differently across countries, even when they made apparently similar shifts from welfare to workfare. It is a matter of debate why welfare state change had such heterogeneous consequences across countries. This article proposes that different incentives to take up low-wage work set by tax reforms in the wake of welfare-to-workfare transitions alter consequences on inequality in the lower half of the income distribution. To support this argument, we contrast the trends between the U.S. and Germany. The German and U.S. tax systems were used in very different ways to incentivize low-wage work. The U.S. provided strong incentives to take up low-wage, high-hour work through refundable tax credits. They act as in-work subsidies and represent an enormous public income support program. In contrast, in Germany, payroll taxes were reduced for marginal employment. These jobs were intended to serve as a stepping stone to full employment. Germany aimed to reduce barriers to labor market entry, but did not increase subsidies for those working higher hours in low-wage jobs. We hypothesize that the German path led to increased income inequality within the lower half of the income distribution, whereas the large U.S. tax-based subsidies in the U.S. significantly counteracted it. Decompositions of unconditional quantile regressions based on the SOEP and the CPS-ASEC for 1992 and 2014 strongly support these assumptions. Households with no labor market integration lost ground with the workfare reforms in both countries, increasing inequality in the lower half. However, U.S. households that conformed to the new workfare system by taking low-wage jobs received additional after-tax income through tax cuts and credits. This additional income of the beneficiary households increased the percentile values between the 10th and 30th percentiles by about 6 per cent, thus reducing income inequality in the lower half. Germany, on the contrary, lacked such compensatory subsidies for compliant households. Thus, increased take-up of low-wage work was associated with an increase in income inequality in the lower half. We conclude that tax systems are important in understanding why the shift towards workfare was associated with heterogeneous trends in income inequality across countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))

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Davern, Eamonn (2022): European Network of Public Employment Services: PES support to recovery. (Thematic Paper / European Network of Public Employment Services), Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 22 S. DOI:10.2767/847911

Abstract

"This paper provides an overview of the key questions and issues for Public Employment Services in determining how best to assist labour market recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It draws upon existing promising practices and academic research, as well as the discussions held in a Thematic Review Workshop in the Network on 9-10 November 2021. Member States have introduced a wide range of measures to mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 on employment. Despite these initiatives the longer-term challenges from structural labor market changes remain. The report highlights that to further succeed, PES need to learn from emergency measures applied during the crisis, identifying those which could be adopted for permanent use, consistently reviewing their institutional strength and corporate resilience. This will require agility with rapid responses to emerging trends, sufficient capacity, appropriate tools, and required competencies to support unemployed people through profound labour market changes. Liaison with partners will become increasingly important and need to be regularly reviewed to identify where new partnerships are needed. PES will need to support improved labor market function through promoting employment in growing sectors of the economy, particularly digital and green jobs, facilitating occupational and geographical mobility, including through training and upskilling, and supporting the agenda for longer working lives." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ferragina, Emanuele & Federico Danilo Filetti (2022): Labour market protection across space and time: A revised typology and a taxonomy of countries' trajectories of change. In: Journal of European Social Policy, Jg. 32, H. 2, S. 148-165. DOI:10.1177/09589287211056222

Abstract

"We measure and interpret the evolution of labour market protection across 21 high-income countries over three decades, employing as conceptual foundations the ‘regime varieties’ and ‘trajectories of change’ developed by Esping-Andersen, Estevez-Abe, Hall and Soskice, and Thelen. We measure labour market protection considering four institutional dimensions – employment protection, unemployment protection, income maintenance and activation – and the evolution of the workforce composition. This measurement accounts for the joint evolution of labour market institutions, their complementarities and their relation to outcomes, and mitigate the unrealistic Average Production Worker assumption. We handle the multi-dimensional nature of labour market protection with Principal Component Analysis and capture the characteristics of countries’ trajectories of change with a composite score. We contribute to the literature in three ways. (1) We portray a revised typology that accounts for processes of change between 1990 and 2015, and that clusters regime varieties on the basis of coordination and solidarity levels, that is, Central/Northern European, Southern European, liberal. (2) We illustrate that, despite a persistent gap, a large majority of Coordinated Market Economies experiencing a decline in the level of labour market protection became more similar to Liberal Market Economies. (3) We develop a fivefold taxonomy of countries’ trajectories of change (liberalization, dualization, flexibility, de-dualization and higher protection), showing that these trajectories are not always path-dependent and consistent with regime varieties previously developed in the literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Spiritus, Kevin, Étienne Lehmann, Sander Renes & Floris Zoutman (2022): Optimal Taxation with Multiple Incomes and Types. (CESifo working paper 9534), München, 53 S.

Abstract

"We analyze the optimal nonlinear income tax schedule when taxpayers earn multiple incomes and differ along many unobserved dimensions. We derive the necessary conditions for the government’s optimum using both a tax perturbation and a mechanism design approach, and show that both methods produce the same results. Our main contribution is to propose a numerical method to find the optimal tax schedule. Applied to the optimal taxation of couples, we find that optimal isotax curves are very close to linear and parallel. The slope of isotax curves is strongly affected by the relative tax-elasticity of male and female income. We make several additional contributions, including a test for Pareto efficiency and a condition on primitives that ensures the government’s necessary conditions are sufficient and the solution to the problem is unique." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Benda, Luc, Ferry Koster & Romke van der Veen (2019): Levelling the playing field? Active labour market policies, educational attainment and unemployment. In: The International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, Jg. 39, H. 3/4, S. 276-295. DOI:10.1108/IJSSP-08-2018-0138

Abstract

"The purpose of this paper is to investigate how active labour market policy (ALMP) training programmes and hiring subsidies increase or decrease differences in the unemployment risk between lesser and higher educated people during an economic downturn. A focus is put on potential job competition dynamics and cumulative (dis)advantages of the lesser and higher educated" (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Bown, Chad P. & Caroline Freund (2019): Active labor market policies. Lessons from other countries for the United States. (Working paper / Peterson Institute for International Economics 2019-02), Washington, DC, 12 S.

Abstract

"US labor force participation has been weak in recent decades, especially during the recovery of the financial crisis of 2007 - 09. This paper examines several programs that governments in other advanced industrial countries have established to help jobless workers continue to seek employment, not drop out of the labor force, and ultimately find jobs. These programs more actively support out-of-work citizens by facilitating matches between workers and firms, helping workers in their job searches, and sometimes creating jobs when none are available in the private sector. The evidence presented in this paper concludes that job placement services, training, wage subsidies, and other labor adjustment policies can be used to successfully help workers find employment and remain tied to the labor market. By contrast, direct job creation through public works projects and other government programs are less effective in helping workers over the long run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gómez, Marcos & Francisco Parro (2019): Unintended displacement effects of youth training programs in a directed search model. In: Journal of labor research, Jg. 40, H. 2, S. 230-247. DOI:10.1007/s12122-019-09284-1

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Schwandt, Hannes & Till von Wachter (2019): Unlucky cohorts: Estimating the long-term effects of entering the labor market in a recession in large cross-sectional data sets. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 37, H. S1, S. S161-S198. DOI:10.1086/701046

Abstract

"This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions, especially for less advantaged entrants, that increases in government support only partly offset. We confirm that the results are unaffected by selective migration and labor market entry by also using a double-weighted average unemployment rate at labor market entry for each birth cohort and state-of-birth cell based on average state migration rates and average cohort education rates from census data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Afonso, Óscar, Ana Maria Bandeira & Manuela Magalhães (2018): Labour-market institutions, (un)employment, wages, and growth. Theory and data. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 50, H. 6, S. 613-633. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2017.1332748

Abstract

"We analyse the implications of labour-market institutions on wage inequality in favour of skilled labour, on relative unemployment of unskilled labour, and on the economic growth rate in two clusters resulting from 27 OECD countries: Cluster 1, closely related with the Anglo-Saxon model, and Cluster 2, dominated by the Continental-European model. By linking the unskilled wage to the skilled one in Cluster 2, due to the indexation of social benefits to per-capita income, we accommodate the observed paths of the three variables in both clusters between 1991 and 2008: Cluster 1 presents a higher wage inequality in favour of skilled labour, a lower unemployment of the unskilled labour, and a better economic growth rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Card, David, Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber (2018): What works? A meta analysis of recent active labor market program evaluations. In: Journal of the European Economic Association, Jg. 16, H. 3, S. 894-931. DOI:10.1093/jeea/jvx028

Abstract

"We summarize the estimates from over 200 recent studies of active labor market programs. We classify the estimates by type of program and participant group, and distinguish between three different post-program time horizons. Using regression models for the estimated program effect (for studies that model the probability of employment) and for the sign and significance of the estimated effect (for all the studies in our sample) we conclude that: (1) average impacts are close to zero in the short run, but become more positive 2 - 3 years after completion of the program; (2) the time profile of impacts varies by type of program, with larger average gains for programs that emphasize human capital accumulation; (3) there is systematic heterogeneity across participant groups, with larger impacts for females and participants who enter from long term unemployment; (4) active labor market programs are more likely to show positive impacts in a recession." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))