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Auswirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland

Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt stehen seit der Ausbreitung des Coronavirus vor großen Herausforderungen. Zur Unterstützung von Beschäftigten und Unternehmen hatte der Bundestag im Eilverfahren u.a. einen leichteren Zugang zum Kurzarbeitergeld beschlossen. Dieses Themendossier stellt Einschätzungen aus Forschung und Politik zu den Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf den Arbeitsmarkt, die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und notwendige Maßnahmen in Deutschland zusammen.
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  • Literaturhinweis

    The COVID confinement measures and EU labor markets (2020)

    Fana, Marta ; Tolan, Songül; Torrejón Pérez, Sergio; Urzì Brancati, Maria Cesira ; Fernández-Macías, Enrique ;

    Zitatform

    Fana, Marta, Songül Tolan, Sergio Torrejón Pérez, Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Enrique Fernández-Macías (2020): The COVID confinement measures and EU labor markets. (JRC technical report), Brüssel, 29 S. DOI:10.2760/69199

    Abstract

    "This paper assesses the potential impact of the early 2020 COVID confinement measures on EU labour markets, on the basis of an analysis of the restrictions on economic activity imposed in three EU Member States (Italy, Spain and Germany). Following the legislative measures adopted, we classify all economic sectors into different categories according to the likely impact of the COVID crisis, and compare the share of employment that is likely to be strongly affected in each country. Once this is done, we apply these categories of sectors to recent data on EU employment and estimate the groups of workers that would be more or less affected by the economic lockdown measures. Finally, we use all this information to speculate about possible mid-term developments and broader socio-economic implications of the COVID crisis in Europe." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report: BPEA Conference Drafts, September 24, 2020 (2020)

    Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Jones, Charles I.;

    Zitatform

    Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Charles I. Jones (2020): Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report. BPEA Conference Drafts, September 24, 2020. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity H. Fall, S. 111-146.

    Abstract

    "This paper combines data on GDP, unemployment, and Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths from COVID-19 to study the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic. We present results from an international perspective using data at the country level as well as results for individual U.S. states and key cities throughout the world. The data from these different levels of geographic aggregation offer a remarkably similar view of the pandemic despite the substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Countries like Korea, Japan, Germany, and Norway and cities such as Tokyo and Seoul have comparatively few deaths and low macroeconomic losses. At the other extreme, New York City, Lombardy, the United Kingdom, and Madrid have many deaths and large macroeconomic losses. There are fewer locations that seem to succeed on one dimension but suffer on the other, but these include California and Sweden and potentially offer useful policy lessons." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Welfare resilience in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy (2020)

    Figari, Francesco ; Fiorio, Carlo V. ;

    Zitatform

    Figari, Francesco & Carlo V. Fiorio (2020): Welfare resilience in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 92-119.

    Abstract

    "This paper analyses the extent to which the Italian welfare system provides monetary compensation for those who lost their earnings due to the lockdown imposed by the government in order to contain the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. In assessing first-order effects of the businesses temporarily shut down and the government’s policy measures on household income, counterfactual scenarios are simulated with EUROMOD, the EU-wide microsimulation model, integrated with information on the workers who the lockdown is more likely to affect. This paper provides timely evidence on the differing degrees of relative and absolute resilience of the household incomes of the individuals affected by the lockdown. These arise from the variations in the protection offered by the tax-benefit system, coupled with personal and household circumstances of the individuals at risk of income loss." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa und den USA unter Covid-19: besser im Korsett einer Versicherungslogik eingeengt oder den Launen eines Präsidialsystems ausgeliefert? (2020)

    Fischer, Georg ; Schmid, Günther;

    Zitatform

    Fischer, Georg & Günther Schmid (2020): Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa und den USA unter Covid-19. Besser im Korsett einer Versicherungslogik eingeengt oder den Launen eines Präsidialsystems ausgeliefert? (WZB discussion paper : Emeriti 2020-001), Berlin, 16 S.

    Abstract

    "Die Auswirkungen der von Covid-19 ausgelösten Wirtschaftskrise auf die Arbeitslosigkeit könnten kaum unterschiedlicher sein als in den USA und Europa. Das gilt auch für die politischen Reaktionen: Während die EU-27 die Arbeitslosigkeit bisher weitgehend durch massiven Einsatz von Kurzarbeit in Schach halten konnte, herrscht in den USA eine Massenarbeitslosigkeit, die an die Große Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929/30 erinnert. Statt mit Kurzarbeit reagierten die USA u.a. mit massiven Sozialtransfers für bestimmte Gruppen von Arbeitslosen, die manche Einkommen kurzfristig sogar besserstellen als bei Beschäftigung. Umgekehrt werden die sozialpolitischen Probleme und die wirtschaftspolitischen Grenzen der Kurzarbeit in der EU deutlicher sichtbar. Es ist also noch nicht ausgemacht, welches dieser beiden Wirtschafts- und Sozialsysteme langfristig den durch die Krise beschleunigten Strukturwandel besser bewältigen wird. Dieser Essay argumentiert, dass der europäische Ansatz eine humanere und effektivere Lösung der Krisenbewältigung verspricht, aber nur, wenn die Mitgliedstaaten und die Europäische Union einen den Strukturwandel unterstützenden Weg aus der Kurzarbeit finden und von einigen Stärken des US-Systems lernen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    COVID-19 und Reglementierung von Berufen – gibt es auch Lichtblicke? (2020)

    Frohn, Martin ;

    Zitatform

    Frohn, Martin (2020): COVID-19 und Reglementierung von Berufen – gibt es auch Lichtblicke? In: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, Jg. 69, H. 2, S. 140-147. DOI:10.1515/zfwp-2020-2036

    Abstract

    "The Covid-19 crisis has had a severe impact on society and the economy. Some countries reacted with regulatory relaxations to cope with the crisis and digitisation of services provided possibilities to maintain service activities during the general lockdown measures. It became even more apparent that regulating access to and exercise of professional activities can have negative effects on adaptability of businesses and development of new and innovative business models. The recent adoption of an EU directive on a proportionality test, obliging Member States to carry out a thorough assessment of the effects of regulation before its adoption, provides guidance and a toolbox to ensure monitoring and adaptation of regulatory frameworks in view of developments such as those we have witnessed very recently. Regulatory trends in Member States and in particular in Germany go in opposite directions: While tightening of access requirements in craft professions, the German government considers significant reforms in legal services. In particular as regards the tightening of restrictions, it is expected that the EU directive on a proportionality test will lead to more sound and fact-based regulatory decisions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The labour market policy response to COVID-19 must save aggregate matching capital (2020)

    Fujita, Shigeru ; Moscarini, Giuseppe ; Postel-Vinay, Fabien;

    Zitatform

    Fujita, Shigeru, Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay (2020): The labour market policy response to COVID-19 must save aggregate matching capital. In: VOX, o. Sz.

    Abstract

    "The COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented shock to labour markets. This column argues that the policy response should balance two objectives: (1) facilitating prompt reallocation of employment to essential activities during the emergency, and (2) maintaining workers’ attachment to their previous employers, preserving the aggregate stock of firm-specific human capital, and avoiding persistent mismatch, which would propagate the temporary shock into a prolonged stagnation. The authors make concrete labour market policy proposals and compare them with measures currently being implemented on both sides of the Atlantic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Covid: Not a great equaliser (2020)

    Galasso, Vincenzo ;

    Zitatform

    Galasso, Vincenzo (2020): Covid: Not a great equaliser. In: Covid economics H. 19, S. 241-255.

    Abstract

    "Coronavirus has been portrayed as the “great equalizer”. None seems immune to the virus and to the economic consequences of the lockdown measures imposed to contain its diffusion. We exploit novel data from two real time surveys to study the early impact on the labor market of the lockdown in Italy – one of the two countries, with China, hit hard and early. COVID was not a “great economic equalizer.” Quite on the contrary. Low-educated workers, blue collars and low-income service workers were more likely to have stopped working both threeweek and six-week after the lockdown. Low-educated workers were less likely to work from home. Blue collars worked more from their regular workplace, but not from home. Low-income service workers were instead less likely to work from the regular workplace. For both blue collars and low-income service workers, the monthly labor income dropped already in March. Not surprisingly, they were less in agreement with the public policy measures that required the closing of (non-essential) business and activities. Some positive adjustments took place between the third and the sixth week from the lockdown: the share of idle workers dropped, as the proportion of individuals working at home and from their regular workplace increased. However, these adjustments benefitted mostly highly educated workers and white collars. Overall, low-income individuals faced worse labor market outcomes and suffered higher psychological costs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession: BPEA conference drafts, September 24, 2020 (2020)

    Gallant, Jessica; Lange, Fabian ; Notowidigdo, Matthew J.; Kroft, Kory;

    Zitatform

    Gallant, Jessica, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo (2020): Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession. BPEA conference drafts, September 24, 2020. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity H. Fall, S. 167-216.

    Abstract

    "This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the US. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001-2019, and we find that the model-based job finding rates match observed job finding rates during the entire sample period and out-of-sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well-behaved and displays little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, job separation rate, and the recall rate of workers on temporary layo↵ must deteriorate substantially from current levels in the next several months." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The Pandemic Requires a Coordinated Global Economic Response (2020)

    García Herrero, Alicia;

    Zitatform

    García Herrero, Alicia (2020): The Pandemic Requires a Coordinated Global Economic Response. In: Intereconomics, Jg. 55, H. 2, S. 66-67. DOI:10.1007/s10272-020-0871-7

    Abstract

    "Global pandemics are costly for many reasons. First and foremost, for their death toll and, more generally, for health and social reasons. The second reason is economic. I will focus on the latter given my field of expertise. The economic impact of a pandemic depends upon the way it is tackled both from a health and an economic perspective. Regarding the former, strategies to deal with pandemics are mainly twofold, with two different economic outcomes. The first, mitigation, focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping the spread of the virus, with the objective of reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk. The second, suppression, aims at reversing the epidemic growth but with the risk of a rebound any time the suppression measures are lifted. The first is bound to last longer but have less intense social and economic consequences. The second should be faster but also carries extreme economic consequences, not only due to vanishing demand but also collapsing supply. The hope, though, is that the economy can recover more quickly as long as there is no pick up in the number of cases. It should be noted that a pandemic tends to have a timeframe of 18 months, until a vaccine becomes available." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Modelling contacts and transitions in the SIR epidemics model (2020)

    Garibaldi, Pietro ; Moen, Espen R. ; Pissarides, Christopher A. ;

    Zitatform

    Garibaldi, Pietro, Espen R. Moen & Christopher A. Pissarides (2020): Modelling contacts and transitions in the SIR epidemics model. In: Covid economics H. 5, S. 1-20.

    Abstract

    "Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic economists have turned to the SIR model and its subsequent variants for the study of the pandemic's economic impact. But the SIR model is lacking the optimising behaviour of economic models, in which agents can inuence future transitions with their present actions. We borrow ideas and modelling techniques from the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) search and matching model and show that there is a well-defined solution in line with the original claims of Kermack and McKendrick (1927) but in which incentives play a role in determining the transitions. There are also externalities that justify government intervention in the form of imposing more restrictions on actions outside the home than a decentralised equilibrium would yield." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Coronavirus hält Weltkonjunktur in Atem (2020)

    Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Hauber, Philipp; Hauber, Philipp;

    Zitatform

    Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Philipp Hauber (2020): Coronavirus hält Weltkonjunktur in Atem. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 100, H. 3, S. 223-224. DOI:10.1007/s10273-020-2607-5

    Abstract

    "Studien zu den wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen von Epidemien rekurrieren zumeist auf die Effekte, die direkt aus einer Reduzierung des Arbeitsangebots durch höheren Krankenstand und durch krankheitsbedingte Todesfälle resultieren. Für die Konjunktur sind aber indirekte Wirkungen, die von Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Epidemie oder Verhaltensänderungen der Konsumenten ausgehen, bislang von größerer Bedeutung." (Textauszug, © Springer-Verlag)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Building effective short-time work schemes for the COVID-19 crisis (2020)

    Giupponi, Giulia ; Landais, Camille ;

    Zitatform

    Giupponi, Giulia & Camille Landais (2020): Building effective short-time work schemes for the COVID-19 crisis. In: VOX H. 01.04.2020, o. Sz.

    Abstract

    "Short-time work is a subsidy for temporary reductions in the number of hours worked in firms affected by temporary shocks. Evidence suggests that it can have large positive effects on employment and can be more effective than unemployment insurance or universal transfers. This column discusses how the COVID-19 crisis - with its mandated reduction in hours of work and massive liquidity crunch for firms - is a textbook case for the use of short-time work. Taking into account available evidence and the current situation, it proposes guidelines to effectively implement short-term work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic (2020)

    Glover, Andrew; Heathcote, Jonathan ; Krueger, Dirk ; Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor;

    Zitatform

    Glover, Andrew, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull (2020): Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic. In: Covid economics H. 6, S. 22-64.

    Abstract

    "Many countries are shutting non-essential sectors of the economy to slow the spread of Covid-19. Older individuals have most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in sectors that are shuttered have the most to lose. In this paper we extend a standard epidemiological model of disease progression to include heterogeneity by age, and multiple sources of disease transmission. We then incorporate the epidemiological block into a multisector economic model in which workers differ by sector (basic and luxury) as well as by health status. We study optimal mitigation policies of a utilitarian government that can redistribute resources across individuals, but where such redistribution is costly. We show that optimal redistribution and mitigation policies interact, and reflect a compromise between the strongly diverging preferred policy paths across the subgroups of the population." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Working from home across countries (2020)

    Gottlieb, Charles ; Poschke, Markus; Grobovšek, Jan;

    Zitatform

    Gottlieb, Charles, Jan Grobovšek & Markus Poschke (2020): Working from home across countries. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 71-91.

    Abstract

    "We study how the share of employment that can work from home changes with country income levels. We document that in urban areas, this share is only about 20% in poor countries, compared to close to 40% in rich ones. This result is driven by the self-employed workers: in poor countries their share of employment is large and their occupational composition not conducive to work from home. At the level of the entire country, the share of employment that can work from home in poor countries compared to rich countries depends on farmers' ability to work from home. This finding is due to the high agricultural employment share in poor countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Pandemic recession: L-shaped or V-shaped? (2020)

    Gregory, Victoria ; Menzio, Guido ; Wiczer, David ;

    Zitatform

    Gregory, Victoria, Guido Menzio & David Wiczer (2020): Pandemic recession: L-shaped or V-shaped? In: Covid economics H. 15, S. 88-109.

    Abstract

    "We develop and calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market in order to forecast the evolution of the aggregate US labor market during and after the coronavirus pandemic. The model is designed to capture the heterogeneity of the transitions of individual workers across states of unemployment, employment and across different employers. The model is also designed to capture the trade-offs in the choice between temporary and permanent layoffs. Under reasonable parametrizations of the model, the lockdown instituted to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus is shown to have long-lasting negative effects on unemployment. This is so because the lockdown disproportionately disrupts the employment of workers who need years to find stable jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)

    Han, Jeehoon ; Sullivan, James X.; Meyer, Bruce D.;

    Zitatform

    Han, Jeehoon, Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan (2020): Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic. (NBER working paper 27729), Cambridge, MA, 65 S. DOI:10.3386/w27729

    Abstract

    "This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on the impact of the current pandemic on income and poverty to inform the targeting of resources to those most affected and assess the success of current efforts. We construct new measures of the income distribution and poverty with a lag of only a few weeks using high frequency data from the Basic Monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), which collects income information for a large, representative sample of U.S. families. Because the family income data for this project are rarely used, we validate this timely measure of income by comparing historical estimates that rely on these data to estimates from data on income and consumption that have been used much more broadly. Our results indicate that at the start of the pandemic, government policy effectively countered its effects on incomes, leading poverty to fall and low percentiles of income to rise across a range of demographic groups and geographies. Simulations that rely on the detailed CPS data and that closely match total government payments made show that the entire decline in poverty that we find can be accounted for by the rise in government assistance, including unemployment insurance benefits and the Economic Impact Payments. Our simulations further indicate that of those losing employment the vast majority received unemployment insurance, though this was less true early on in the pandemic and receipt was uneven across the states, with some states not reaching a large share of their out of work residents." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Jobs' amenability to working from home: Evidence from skills surveys for 53 countries (2020)

    Hatayama, Maho; Winkler, Hernan ; Viollaz, Mariana;

    Zitatform

    Hatayama, Maho, Mariana Viollaz & Hernan Winkler (2020): Jobs' amenability to working from home: Evidence from skills surveys for 53 countries. In: Covid economics H. 19, S. 211-240.

    Abstract

    "The spread of COVID-19 and implementation of “social distancing” policies around the world have raised the question of how many jobs can be done at home. This paper uses skills surveys from 53 countries at varying levels of economic development to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home. The paper considers jobs’ characteristics and uses internet access at home as an important determinant of working from home. The findings indicate that the amenability of jobs to working from home increases with the level of economic development of the country. This is driven by jobs in poor countries being more intensive in physical/manual tasks, using less information and communications technology, and having poorer internet connectivity at home. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to working from home than the average worker. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. The paper finds that the crisis may exacerbate inequities between and within countries. It also finds that occupations explain less than half of the variability in the working-from-home indexes within countries, which highlights the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to working from home." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Which Jobs Are Done from Home? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey (2020)

    Hensvik, Lena ; Le Barbanchon, Thomas ; Rathelot, Roland ;

    Zitatform

    Hensvik, Lena, Thomas Le Barbanchon & Roland Rathelot (2020): Which Jobs Are Done from Home? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey. (IZA discussion paper 13138), Bonn, 17 S.

    Abstract

    "Which jobs are more likely to be affected by mobility restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic? This paper uses American Time Use Survey data to measure the share of the work hours that are spent at home for different job categories. We compute and provide home-working shares by occupation (US census classification, SOC and international ISCO classification), and by industry (US census classification, NAICS and international ISIC classification)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to contain the spread of Covid-19 (2020)

    Inoue, Hiroyasu; Todo, Yasuyuki ;

    Zitatform

    Inoue, Hiroyasu & Yasuyuki Todo (2020): The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains. The case of a mega-city lockdown to contain the spread of Covid-19. In: Covid economics H. 2, S. 43-59.

    Abstract

    "This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of Covid-19. The negative effect of the lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of a shortage of supply and demand. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo when production activities that are not essential to citizens’ survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that when Tokyo is locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan, or 5.3% of its annual GDP. Although the shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in a reduction in the daily production in Japan of 86% in a month." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics (2020)

    Jordà, Òscar ; Taylor, Alan M. ; Singh, Sanjay R. ;

    Zitatform

    Jordà, Òscar, Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor (2020): Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2020-09), San Francisco, Calif., 14 S. DOI:10.24148/wp2020-09

    Abstract

    "How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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