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Unterhofer, Ulrike & Conny Wunsch (2022): Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Policies. A Novel Instrumental Variables Approach. (arXiv papers), 81 S.

Abstract

"This study evaluates the macroeconomic effects of active labour market policies (ALMP) in Germany over the period 2005 to 2018. We propose a novel identification strategy to overcome the simultaneity of ALMP and labour market outcomes at the regional level. It exploits the imperfect overlap of local labour markets and local employment agencies that decide on the local implementation of policies. Specifically, we instrument for the use of ALMP in a local labour market with the mix of ALMP implemented outside this market but in local employment agencies that partially overlap with this market. We find no effects of short-term activation measures and further vocational training on aggregate labour market outcomes. In contrast, wage subsidies substantially increase the share of workers in unsubsidised employment while lowering long-term unemployment and welfare dependency. Our results suggest that negative externalities of ALMP partially offset the effects for program participants and that some segments of the labour market benefit more than others." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Zwick, Thomas, Mona Bruns, Johannes Geyer & Svenja Lorenz (2022): Early retirement of employees in demanding jobs: Evidence from a German pension reform. In: The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Jg. 22. DOI:10.1016/j.jeoa.2022.100387

Abstract

"Early retirement options are usually targeted at employees at risk of not reaching their regular retirement age in employment. An important at-risk group comprises older employees who have worked in demanding jobs for many years. This group may be particularly negatively affected by the abolition of early retirement options. To measure differences in labor market reactions of employees in low- and high-demand jobs, we exploit the quasinatural experiment of a cohort-specific pension reform that increased the early retirement age for women from 60 to 63 years. Based on a large administrative dataset, we use a regression-discontinuity approach to estimate the labor market reactions. Surprisingly, we find the same relative employment increase of about 25% for treated women who were exposed to low and to high job demand. For older women in demanding jobs, we also do not find substitution effects into unemployment, partial retirement, disability pension, or inactivity. Eligibility for the abolished early retirement option required high labor market attachment. Thus, we argue that this eligibility rule induced a positive selection of healthy workers into early retirement. We propose alternative policies that protect workers exposed to high job demand better against the negative consequences of being unable to reach their statutory retirement age in employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Elsevier) ((en))

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Boddin, Dominik & Thilo Kroeger (2021): Structural change revisited: The rise of manufacturing jobs in the service sector. (Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank 2021,38), Frankfurt am Main, 55 S.

Abstract

"This paper reconsiders the labor market consequences of structural change over the past 43 years. Taking two different ways of defining manufacturing and service employment as point of departure - according to the industry classification of firms or establishments and according to the occupation and hence the tasks of the workers - we show that structural change is far less pronounced than generally perceived. Manufacturing and service employment numbers based on the occupations of workers deviate markedly from the employment numbers based on the industry classification of employers. The decline in manufacturing jobs in Germany is far lower if the measurement of employment is based on the occupation of the worker. About 52% of manufacturing jobs that were lost in manufacturing industries between 1975 and 2017 are offset by new manufacturing jobs in service industries. This also has important implications for empirical applications. By way of example, we reestimate the effect of international trade on manufacturing employment based on the occupation of the worker. Contrary to previously identified negative effects, we cannot identify significant effects of import exposure on employment in manufacturing occupations. Using detailed, comprehensive German social security data, we show at the worker level that the service sector increasingly acts as a valuable alternative employment option for workers with manufacturing occupations. We estimate the causal effects of a switch to the service sector on employment outcomes by following workers over time after mass layoffs. The results reinforce our claim that structural change is less pronounced than perceived, as workers who retain their initial occupation and switch to employment in the service sector experience no significant differences in future employment trajectories compared to workers who manage to stay in the manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Böhm, Michael J., Terry Gregory, Pamela Qendrai & Christian Siegel (2021): Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets. In: Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Jg. 37, H. 1, S. 113-131. DOI:10.1093/oxrep/graa063

Abstract

"Like many other countries, Germany has experienced rapid population and workforce ageing, yet with substantial variation across regions. In this paper we first use this spatial variation between 1975 and 2014 to estimate quasi-causal supply effects of ageing on regional labour market outcomes, drawing on the identification strategy of Böhm and Siegel (2020). We find in our panel of German labour market regions that workforce mean age has considerable negative effects on the wage returns to age. We also obtain suggestive evidence that relative employment rates of older workers decline when mean age rises. A decomposition of the heterogeneous regional trends using our estimates shows that ageing of rural regions is mainly driven by supply (reflecting local population dynamics) whereas urban ageing is driven by demand (reflecting responses to economic conditions). We discuss the differential implications of these drivers for regional policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos, Andrey Launov & Jean-Marc Robin (2021): The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 132. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103658

Abstract

"In this paper we investigate the recent fall in unemployment, and the rise in part-time work and labour market participation among prime-aged Germans. We show that unemployment fell because the Hartz reforms induced a large fraction of the long-term unemployed to deregister as jobseekers. However, labour force participation actually increased because many female non-participants accepted low-paid, part-time jobs. Counterfactual simulations using estimated transition probabilities show that observed changes in the stocks of registered and unregistered unemployment after 2002 essentially resulted from changes in their outflows. These changes are also the main determinants of the dynamics of the stocks of marginal, contributing part-time and full-time employment after 2002. Yet the full decrease in registered male unemployment cannot be explained by the reforms alone." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))

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Dustmann, Christian, Hyejin Ku & Tanya Surovtseva (2021): Real Exchange Rates and the Earnings of Immigrants. (CReAM discussion paper 2021,10), London, 59 S.

Abstract

"Higher price levels in the destination relative to the origin increase the effective real wages of immigrants, thereby affecting immigrants' reservation and entry wages as well as their subsequent career trajectories. Based on micro-level longitudinal administrative data from Germany and exploiting within-country and across-cohort variations in the real exchange rate (RER) between Germany and countries that newly joined the European Union in the 2000s, we find that immigrants arriving with high RERs initially settle for lower paying jobs than comparable immigrants arriving with low RERs. In subsequent periods, however, wages of high RER arrivals catch up to that of their low RER counterparts, convergence achieved primarily through changes to better paying occupations and firms. Our findings thus point to the persistent regional price differences as one possible reason for Immigrants' downgrading, with implications for immigrant' career profiles and the assessment of labor market impacts of immigration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Friedrich, Anett & Sandra Hirtz (2021): Same educational level, same wage returns? An analysis over time and across occupations in Germany. In: Journal of education and work, Jg. 34, H. 5-6, S. 632-648. DOI:10.1080/13639080.2021.1965967

Abstract

"Analysing wage differentials due to educational investments within occupations can explain the persistent wage inequality in western industrialised countries, such as Germany. This article contributes to the discussion by examining occupation-specific variance in wage returns for men working full-time in Western Germany between 1976 and 2010. We distinguish between three groups: employees with a vocational education and training (VET) degree with an Abitur (a certificate allowing entrance into a German university), with a VET degree but no Abitur, or with a university degree. First, we theoretically argue why wage returns vary within educational levels across occupations. Second, on the assumption that wage return variance will be greater at higher educational levels, we investigate wage return variance patterns for VET and university graduates over time. Estimating a two-stage multilevel model using the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB), we show that holding an Abitur increases wage return variance across occupations. Moreover, we find a significantly higher occupation-specific variance in wage returns to education for university graduates than for VET graduates. For the period under examination, we reveal a fluctuating variance in wage returns for VET graduates and a slightly decreasing variance for university graduates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Galassi, Gabriela (2021): Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform. (Staff working paper / Bank of Canada 2021,15), Ottawa, 92 S.

Abstract

"This paper analyzes how firms respond to changes in tax benefits for low-earning workers and how, through equilibrium effects, such policies also affect non-targeted, high-earning workers. I explore establishment-level outcomes around Germany's 2003 Mini-Job Reform, which entailed a significant expansion of tax benefits for low-earning workers. Firms' responses are decomposed in terms of the scale effects that arise from lower labor costs and the substitution effects that are due to changes in the relative prices of low- and high-earning employment post-reform. Using a differences-in-differences approach, I document that highly exposed establishments—those with a high proportion of low-earning workers pre-reform—expand their number of employees relative to non-exposed establishments–those with a low proportion of such workers. Importantly, this relative expansion is tilted towards high-earning workers, a group that is not the target of the tax benefits. In addition, non-exposed establishments substitute employment towards low-earning workers without expanding at the same pace. My findings are consistent with a model of the labor market that features tax sharing between workers and firms and simultaneous shifts in labor supply and demand after changes in tax benefits for low-earning workers. In this setting I illustrate that the employment growth the policy intended is accompanied by a reallocation of employment and production between highly exposed firms and non-exposed firms, and this may result in an efficiency loss." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gehrke, Britta & Jacob Wong (2021): Relationships that Last: Job Creation vs Job Duration. (School of Economics working papers / The University of Adelaide, School of Economics 2021-01), Adelaide, 27 S.

Abstract

"This paper documents observations about the duration of jobs created by establishments at various points along an establishment age curve. Using an employer-employee matched dataset from Germany, we observe a checkmark-shaped relationship between expected job duration and establishment age at the time of job creation. A simple frictional labour market model with two-sided heterogeneity featuring on-the-job search, a simple learning mechanism about worker ability and a life cycle productivity profile for firms is built to frame a discussion around the empirical finding. The model's mechanical job-ladder is shown to be able to produce such stylized correlations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Glitz, Albrecht & Daniel Wissmann (2021): Skill premiums and the supply of young workers in Germany. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 72. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102034

Abstract

"In this paper, we study the development and underlying drivers of skill premiums in Germany between 1980 and 2008. We show that the significant increase in the medium-to-low skill premium since the late 1980s was almost exclusively concentrated among workers aged 30 or below. Using a nested CES production function framework which allows for imperfect substitutability between young and old workers, we show that changes in relative labor supplies can explain these patterns very well. A cohort-level analysis reveals that distinct secular changes in the educational attainment of the native population are the primary source of the declining relative supply of medium-skilled workers in Germany. Low-skilled immigration, in contrast, only plays a secondary role in explaining the rising lower-end wage inequality in Germany over recent decades." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))

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Hamjediers, Maik (2021): The Causal Effect of Exposure to Female-Dominated Work on Men's Occupational Choices. Evidence from the Suspension of the Civilian Service in Germany. (SocArXiv papers), 30, 8 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/apvky

Abstract

"Occupational segregation is one of the primary mechanisms for gender inequalities in labor market outcomes and persists partly because men rarely enter female-dominated occupations. Social Cognitive Career Theory explains occupational segregation via a lack of learning experiences in gender-atypical tasks and several programs have been proposed to foster occupational integration by exposing individuals to gender-atypical learning experiences. However, research on men working in female-dominated occupations revealed positive as well as negative experiences made within them. As most studies do not account for potential self-selection into gender-atypical occupations, it is an open question whether and how exposure to female-dominated occupations affects men's occupational choices. In response, I exploit exogenous variation induced by the suspension of Germany’s civilian service in 2011. The civilian service was a social sector alternative to a compulsory military service. I describe selection into the civilian service based on cross-section data (AID:A 2009) to assess to whom a potential effect would apply. A difference-in-difference design leverages German social security insurance register data (SIAB) to compare birth cohorts of men before and after the suspension and employs women who were not eligible for compulsory services as a control group. The suspension of the civilian service decreased the likelihood of men to enter female-dominated occupations by two percentage points. This result indicates that programs exposing men to gender-atypical learning experiences can facilitate occupational integration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hutter, Christian & Enzo Weber (2021): Labour Market Miracle, Productivity Debacle: Measuring the Effects of Skill-Biased and Skill-Neutral Technical Change. In: Economic Modelling, Jg. 102, 2021-06-22. DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105584

Abstract

"This paper examines the role of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change for productivity and employment. Thereby, we explore the puzzling macro development in Germany, witnessing job miracle and productivity debacle in parallel. In the literature, skill-biased technical change (SBTC) is known as an important driving factor for labour markets. We measure SBTC using comprehensive micro data and construct a structural macroeconometric framework identified by long-run restrictions. The results show that weaker SBTC explains 69 percent of the productivity slowdown since the early 2000s. Skill-biased technology shocks have a negative and skill-neutral technology shocks a positive hours effect. Twenty-five percent of the hours upswing since 2005 can be explained by reduced pressure from SBTC. Moreover, we analyse routine-biased technical change (RBTC) and find productivity and hours effects comparable to SBTC. However, only the latter can explain the job miracle – productivity debacle puzzle, since RBTC does not flatten substantially in the 2000s." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jarosch, Gregor (2021): Searching for Job Security and the Consequences of Job Loss. (NBER working paper 28481), Cambridge, MA, 56 S. DOI:10.3386/w28481

Abstract

"Job loss comes with large present value earnings losses which elude workhorse models of unemployment and labor market policy. I propose a parsimonious model of a frictional labor market in which jobs differ in terms of unemployment risk and workers search off- and on-the-job. This gives rise to a job ladder with slippery bottom rungs where unemployment spells beget unemployment spells. I allow for human capital to respond to time spent out of work and estimate the framework on German Social Security data. The model captures the joint response of wages, employment, and unemployment risk to job loss which I measure empirically. The key driver of the “unemployment scar” is the loss in job security and its interaction with the evolution of human capital." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jung, Philip, Philipp Korfmann & Edgar Preugschat (2021): Optimal Regional Labor Market Policies. (IZA discussion paper 14204), Bonn, 75 S.

Abstract

"We document large and persistent spatial dispersion in unemployment rates, vacancies, labor market tightness, labor market flows, and wages for Germany on a granular regional level. We show that in the 1990s differences in inflows from employment to unemployment were the key driver of regional dispersion in unemployment rates while in the 2000s outflows became more important. To account for the documented regional dispersion we develop a spatial search and matching model with risk-averse agents, endogenous separations and unobservable search effort that leads to moral hazard and quantify the relative importance of 4 potential structural driving forces: dispersion in productivity, in the bargaining strength of workers, in idiosyncratic risk components and in regional matching efficiency. Based on region-specific estimates of these factors we then study the resulting policy trade-off between insurance, regional redistribution and efficiency. We design (optimal) region-specific labor market policies that can be implemented using hiring subsidies, layoff taxes, unemployment insurance benefits and transfers financed by social insurance contributions. We find that a move towards an optimal tax system that explicitly conditions on regional characteristics could lead to sizable welfare and employment gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kern, Christoph, Ruben L. Bach, Hannah Mautner & Frauke Kreuter (2021): Fairness in Algorithmic Profiling: A German Case Study. (arXiv papers), 2021-08-04. DOI:10.48550/arXiv.2108.04134

Abstract

"Algorithmic profiling is increasingly used in the public sector as a means to allocate limited public resources effectively and objectively. One example is the prediction-based statistical profiling of job seekers to guide the allocation of support measures by public employment services. However, empirical evaluations of potential side-effects such as unintended discrimination and fairness concerns are rare. In this study, we compare and evaluate statistical models for predicting job seekers' risk of becoming long-term unemployed with respect to prediction performance, fairness metrics, and vulnerabilities to data analysis decisions. Focusing on Germany as a use case, we evaluate profiling models under realistic conditions by utilizing administrative data on job seekers' employment histories that are routinely collected by German public employment services. Besides showing that these data can be used to predict long-term unemployment with competitive levels of accuracy, we highlight that different classification policies have very different fairness implications. We therefore call for rigorous auditing processes before such models are put to practice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kirchmann, Andrea, Natalie Laub, Anastasia Maier, Anne Zühlke & Bernhard Boockmann (2021): Technologische Innovationen und Wandel der Arbeitswelt in Deutschland. Herausforderungen für die berufliche Aus- und Weiterbildung sowie die Re-Qualifizierung im Zuge des digitalen Wandels. (Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 2021-10), Berlin, 128 S.

Abstract

"Die vorliegende Studie beschäftigt sich mit den Herausforderungen des digitale Wandels für die berufliche Aus- und Weiterbildung sowie für die Hochschullehre. Dafür wurden eine breit angelegte Literaturanalyse sowie die Auswertung verschiedener Indikatoren vorgenommen. Den Kern der Studie bilden Interviews mit Expertinnen und Experten. Die Gespräche ergeben, dass alle Ausbildungsberufe von der Digitalisierung betroffen sind. Dennoch behält die duale berufliche Ausbildung auch im Zuge des digitalen Wandels einen hohen Stellenwert für die Wirtschaft. Vor allem in der Qualifikation des betrieblichen Ausbildungspersonals und der Lehrkräfte besteht noch erheblicher Handlungsbedarf, ebenso wie beim Umgang der Lehrenden an Hochschulen und in der Weiterbildung mit digitalen Lehr-Lern-Formaten. Kleine und mittlere Unternehmen stehen aufgrund von fehlender technologischer Ausstattung häufig vor besonderen Herausforderungen. Aus diesen Erkenntnissen werden verschiedene Handlungsempfehlungen abgeleitet. Beispielsweise wird bereichsübergreifend die Förderung der didaktischen Weiterbildung im Umgang mit digitalen Lehr-Lernformaten empfohlen. Die Befähigung zu lebenslangem Lernen, die Bereitstellung funktionierender technischer Ausstattung und einer leistungsfähigen Infrastruktur stellen weitere Handlungsempfehlungen dar." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Klose, Sophie-Charlotte (2021): Machine Learning in Labor Economics: Clustering, Prediction, and Variable Selection in the Analysis of Female Employment. Duisburg, 174 S.

Abstract

"In three separate chapters, this dissertation (develops and) demonstrates the effective use of various ML tools to tackle different empirical purposes in the analysis of female employment. Chapter 2 deals with data-driven classification in the analysis of maternal employment. The chapter focuses on detecting latent group structures in the effect of motherhood on employment and examines how the introduction of a generous parental benefit reform impacts the different cluster groups. Chapter 3 turns to the prediction aspect of ML in labor economics and analyzes in a data-driven way how far childbirth can be predicted from a rich set of predictor variables derived from female employment and wage histories. Chapter 4 introduces ML tools for controlled variable selection to economists. More specifically the chapter extends a recently proposed approach for datadriven variable selection in high-dimensional linear models to the non-linear case and exemplifies its usefulness with an application towards the labor market. All three chapters share in common the sparsity principle (e.g., Hastie et al. [2015]), which assumes that the DGP can be modeled accurately by a small number of predictors, even though the actual number of variables at hand is large. Sparsity can be motivated on economic grounds in situations where a researcher believes that the underlying DGP is parsimonious but is unsure about the identity of the relevant variables. In empirical research, it allows the effective use of a large set of covariates while at the same time maintaining the spirit of parsimonious modeling in economics.
Cumulative Dissertation Containing Three Essays: (1) Identifying Latent Structures in Maternal Employment: Evidence on the German Parental Benefit Reform (2) Predicting the Incidence of Having a First Child based on Employment Records { A Machine Learning Approach (joint work with Marie Paul) (3) A Pipeline for Variable Selection and False Discovery Rate Control With an Application in Labor Economics (joint work with Johannes Lederer)" (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lorenz, Svenja & Thomas Zwick (2021): Money also is sunny in a retiree’s world: financial incentives and work after retirement. In: Journal for labour market research, Jg. 55. DOI:10.1186/s12651-021-00304-1

Abstract

"This paper assesses the impact of financial incentives on working after retirement. The empirical analysis is based on a large administrative individual career data set that includes information about 2% of all German employees subject to social security or in marginal employment until age 67 and their employers in the period 1975–2014. We use the classical labor supply model and differentiate between the impact of (potential) labor and non-labor (pension entitlements) income. A Heckman-type two step selection model corrects for endogeneity. We show that labor income has a positive and non-labor income a negative impact on the decision to work after retirement. Especially individuals who can substantially increase their earnings in comparison to their pension entitlements accordingly have a higher probability to work. Men are more attracted by labor earnings incentives than women. Also individuals who work until retirement are easier attracted to work after retirement by higher labor income than those with gaps between employment exit and retirement. Our results allow the calculation of the impact of changes in taxes on labor and non-labor income and changes in earnings offers by employers on work after retirement for different demographic groups." (Author's abstract, © 2021 Springer) ((en))

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Neuber-Pohl, Caroline (2021): Apprenticeship non‑completion in Germany: a money matter? In: Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training, Jg. 13. DOI:10.1186/s40461-021-00115-1

Abstract

"German establishments heavily rely on the apprenticeship system for skill supply. With one in four apprenticeship contracts ending before successful completion, it is in the interest of establishments and policy-makers to determine factors, which reduce non-completion. This paper investigates the role of apprenticeship wages and income prospects after completion for apprenticeship non-completion in Germany. For this purpose, this study identifies incidences of apprenticeship non-completion in a large sample of administrative data on employment biographies and estimates a piecewise exponential model of the non-completion hazard with shared frailties by occupations. The results suggest a robust and significant association with both apprenticeship wages and skilled worker wages. All else at means, apprenticeships which are paid 5% more than the mean apprenticeship wage, on average have a 0.8 percentage points higher estimated survival rate. In turn, an apprenticeship expected to lead to a skilled job that is paid 5% above average, has an estimated survival rate, which is 3.1 percentage points higher on average. These findings highlight the importance of income prospects for apprenticeship non-completion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schuss, Eric (2021): The value of apprentices in the care sector: the effect of apprenticeship costs on the mobility of graduates from apprenticeship training. In: Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training, Jg. 13. DOI:10.1186/s40461-021-00118-y

Abstract

"This paper provides evidence on the effect of apprenticeship costs on the decision whether care facilities employ apprenticeship graduates after completing apprenticeship training. To account for the endogeneity in apprenticeship costs, we exploit an exogenous reduction in the apprenticeship costs of care facilities by exploiting the fact that the underlying apprenticeship levy was introduced across the German federal states at different points in time. We find that the redistribution of apprenticeship costs increases the probability of leaving the training facility after completing apprenticeship training by 10 percentage points. Furthermore, we use this quasi-experimental setting to estimate the effect of mobility of graduates on their wages, which hints at a negative relationship in the upper quartile of the wage distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Tiruneh, Esubalew Alehegn, Silvia Sacchetti & Ermanno C. Tortia (2021): The effect on economic development of creative class versus human capital: panel evidence from German regions. In: European Planning Studies, Jg. 29, H. 1, S. 75-93. DOI:10.1080/09654313.2020.1821611

Abstract

"The creative class thesis considers the creative class, compared to human capital, as a better driver of regional economic development. We test this thesis for Germany. We measure creative class and human capital by occupation and education, respectively using classification codes from The Sample of Integrated Labor Market Biographies (SIAB), and proxy regional economic development by per capita income and employment. Our panel estimation results with system GMM show that the human capital effect on per capita income is substantially stronger than the creative class, while the creative class drives employment far better than human capital does. The evidence does not support the notion that the creative class drives development better than human capital." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Wirp, Marc Christoph (2021): The impact of technological age. An empirical analysis of technological change induced human capital depreciation and its influence on wages and the likelihood to leave an occupation. Mainz, 360 S. DOI:10.25358/openscience-6190

Abstract

"This analysis establishes the novel concept of technological age as a measure of occupation specific technologically induced human capital depreciation. The hypothesis is that technological age makes workers less efficient in their adoption of new technologies and leads to lower wages or workers leaving their occupations. Therefore, the analysis estimates the impact of technological age on wages and on the probability that workers leave their occupations. To measure technological age, the analysis uses the “Employment Survey of the Working Population on Qualification and Working conditions in Germany” dataset to estimate technological change for 28 occupations in the timeframe 1979-2006. This occupation specific technological change is then used to estimate an individual technological age for 971,510 individuals in the dataset “Sample of Integrated Labor Market Biographies Description.” As hypothesized, technological age has a negative and significant impact on wages in most occupations during the sample period. Alas, when looking at sub-sample estimations, it becomes clear that technological age has a positive impact on wages in the timeframe from 1979-1999 and that technological age only has a negative impact on wages in the timeframe from 2000-2006. Furthermore, technological age makes workers more likely to leave their occupations in most occupations during the sample period. Yet again, when looking at sub sample periods, technological age makes workers more likely to leave their occupations during the years 1979-1999 and less likely during the years 2000-2006. Technological age surprisingly always has a more negative impact in less technologically intensive occupations. Workers in less technologically intensive occupations are affected more by the wage effect of technological age and workers in less technologically intensive occupations are more likely to leave their occupations due to technological age. This is true for the entire sample period as well as the sub sample timeframes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Zimmermann, Michael Walter (2021): Essays on Regional Labour Mobility. Münster, 107 S.

Abstract

Die kumulative Dissertation umfasst neben einer einordnenden und zusammenfassenden Einleitung drei Beiträge: (1) 'Regional Labour Migration - Stylized Facts for Germany' untersucht die regionale Arbeitskräftemobilität zwischen 1995 und 2017 unter den Ausprägungen Arbeitslosigkeitsrate, Preisniveau und Bevölkerungsdichte (für das Jahr 2016) und präsentiert ein weiterentwickeltes Gravitationsmodell zur Bestimmung der Determinanten von Binnenmigration. (2). 'Directed Search on the Job in Local Labour Markets' untersucht den Gegenstand aus der Mikroperspektive, basierend auf dem Wanderungsmodell von Sjaastad, nach dem sich die ökonomische Disparitäten durch Arbeitskräftewanderung verändern, wenn Arbeitnehmer den Nutzen ihrer Lebensarbeitszeit durch rationale Wahl des Wohnortes maximieren. (3) 'Labour Mobility - A Multiregional New Keynesian Model' stellt ein multiregionales Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)-Modell vor, das die aus der Literatur bekannten Standardelemente enthält. Zur Ergänzung werden hier die Finanzmärkte mit Inflation, Preisfestsetzung und Lohnverhandlungen einbezogen. (IAB)

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(2021): Lebenslagen in Deutschland: Der Sechste Armuts- und Reichtumsbericht der Bundesregierung. Kurzfassung. (Lebenslagen in Deutschland. Armuts- und Reichtumsberichterstattung der Bundesregierung 6), 72 S.

Abstract

"Die Ergebnisse des Berichts zeigen, dass der überwiegende Teil der Menschen in stabilen sozialen Lagen lebt: Deutschland ist keine "Abstiegsgesellschaft", weiterhin bestehen gute Aufstiegschancen aus der Mitte nach Oben. Problematisch ist die Verfestigung in den unteren sozialen Lagen, aus denen es im Zeitablauf immer weniger Personen gelungen ist, aufzusteigen. Hinsichtlich der Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie deuten die vorliegenden Befragungs- bzw. erste Forschungsergebnisse darauf hin, dass die Sozialschutzpakete bislang negative Verteilungseffekte weitgehend vermieden haben und durch die Regelungen des Kurzarbeitergeldes die Beschäftigung gesichert werden konnte. Langfristig gilt es aber, die Bereich Bildung und Betreuung besonders im Blick zu behalten, da sich hier in den Belastungen sozioökonomische Unterschiede gezeigt haben. Der Bericht dient dazu, die Lebenslagen der Bürgerinnen und Bürger zu analysieren, die Wirksamkeit der bisherigen Politikansätze zu überprüfen und neue Maßnahmen anzuregen. Die soziale Lage in Deutschland wird dafür ausführlich beschrieben. Zugrunde liegen die vorliegenden Statistiken und eigens für den Bericht in Auftrag gegebene Forschungsvorhaben. Die aktuellen Daten bewertet der Bericht mit Blick auf die Entwicklung der sozialen Aufstiegschancen und Abstiegsrisiken innerhalb der Biographie und – soweit möglich – auch im Vergleich zu früheren Alterskohorten und Generationen. Für diesen Sechsten Armuts- und Reichtumsbericht wurden erstmals Einzelinformationen aus verschiedenen Dimensionen (Einkommen, Vermögen, Erwerbsintegration und Wohnungsausstattung) miteinander verknüpft, um soziale Lagen auch in der Gesamtschau zu bewerten und im Zeitablauf zu vergleichen. Die ebenfalls erstmals durchgeführte Untersuchung zur Verfügbarkeit und Inanspruchnahme der sozialen Infrastruktur und von Angeboten der Daseinsvorsorge nimmt ergänzend die Bedeutung nicht-monetärer Leistungen für soziale und gesellschaftliche Teilhabe in den Blick. Verstärkt wurde auch die Analyse, wie Verteilungsergebnisse und soziale Mobilität individuell erfahren und bewertet werden. In Ergänzung zu einer repräsentativen Bevölkerungsbefragung, die differenzierte Auswertungen ermöglicht hat, wurden Personen aus benachteiligten sozialen Lagen zu ihren Biografien, ihrer Lebenssituation und ihren Zukunftsaussichten persönlich interviewt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Alda, Holger, Anett Friedrich & Daniela Rohrbach-Schmidt (2020): Educational expansion and educational wage premiums of young male employees. A long-term analysis for West Germany 1976–2010. In: Social science research, Jg. 85. DOI:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.102351

Abstract

"For decades, Western societies have experienced educational expansion accompanied by an upgrading of skills. The literature provides competing hypotheses on the consequences for educational wage returns — among them are the positional value theory, routine-biased technological change, and the social closure theory. We test these theoretical perspectives empirically on young, male full-time workers in West Germany between 1976 and 2010 in two ideal-type occupational segments using 2.34 million administrative earnings records (Sample of Integrated Labor Market Biographies, SIAB). Our findings show no credential inflation across all levels of education. Instead, the picture in both segments — negative effects of educational expansion on the returns to medium- but not high-level skills — confirms the predictions of routine-biased technological change. Wage premiums for medium-skilled workers differ between segments: the premiums worsen over time in the general segment whereas social-closure mechanisms seem to weaken this negative trend for vocational graduates in the specific segment." (Author's Abstract, IAB-Doku)

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Bachmann, Ronald, Gökay Demir & Hanna Frings (2020): Labor Market Polarization, Job Tasks and Monopsony Power. (IZA discussion paper 13989), Bonn, 40 S.

Abstract

"Using a semi-structural approach based on a dynamic monopsony model, we examine to what extent workers performing different job tasks are exposed to different degrees of monopsony power, and whether these differences in monopsony power have changed over the last 30 years. We find that workers performing mostly non-routine cognitive tasks are exposed to a higher degree of monopsony power than workers performing routine or non-routine manual tasks. Job-specific human capital and non-pecuniary job characteristics are the most likely explanations for this result. We find no evidence that labour market polarisation has increased monopsony power over time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bauer, Anja & Benjamin Lochner (2020): History dependence in wages and cyclical selection: evidence from Germany. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 67, 2020-10-10. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101932

Abstract

"Using administrative employer-employee data from Germany, we investigate the behavior of individual wages over the business cycle. We present evidence that both contractual wage arrangements and cyclical match quality are a key feature of the German labor market. We show that parts of the excess wage cyclicality of new hires discussed by the literature can be explained by cyclical job ladder movements in match quality of new hires from employment. Guided by the literature of job reassignments, we additionally allow for variation in the match quality within an employer-employee match. Besides support for job-specific contracts, our novel main results show that much of the excess wage cyclicality of job changers can be explained by occupation switching workers." (Author's abstract, © 2020 Elsevier) ((en))

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Baumgarten, Daniel, Michael Irlacher & Michael Koch (2020): Offshoring and non-monotonic employment effects across industries in general equilibrium. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 130. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103583

Abstract

"We address the mismatch between existing theoretical models and standard empirical practice in the analysis of the labor market effects of offshoring. While theory focuses on one-sector or two-sector models, empirical studies exploit variation in offshoring across a large number of industries, typically including a linear offshoring term in the analysis. Thereby, these studies implicitly assume a monotonic relationship between offshoring and labor market outcomes and ignore general-equilibrium effects across industries. We analyze the effects of offshoring across a continuum of industries with different shares of offshorable tasks that are linked through labor and capital markets in general oligopolistic equilibrium (GOLE). Our main result is that offshoring generates a hump-shaped pattern of employment changes across industries. While the relocation effect reduces employment in offshoring-intensive industries, labor demand in industries with a high prevalence of domestic production falls because of rising domestic wages and firm exits in general equilibrium. In the empirical part, we test the non-monotonic employment effects across industries in response to an offshoring shock by focusing on Germany after the fall of the Iron Curtain. We find strong empirical support for the hump shape in the changes of employment across industries with different scopes for offshoring, which is almost entirely due to the extensive margin, underscoring the importance of establishment entry and exit. Finally, we discuss important implications for empirical and theoretical research arising from our study." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Burdett, Kenneth, Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Melvyn Coles (2020): The Cost of Job Loss. In: The Review of Economic Studies, Jg. 87, H. 4, S. 1757-1798. DOI:10.1093/restud/rdaa014

Abstract

"This article identifies an equilibrium theory of wage formation and endogenous quit turnover in a labour market with on-the-job search, where risk averse workers accumulate human capital through learning-by-doing and lose skills while unemployed. Optimal contracting implies the wage paid increases with experience and tenure. Indirect inference using German data determines the deep parameters of the model. The estimated model not only reproduces the large and persistent fall in wages and earnings following job loss, a new structural decomposition finds foregone human capital accumulation (while unemployed) is the worker's major cost of job loss." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bödeker, Wolfgang & Susanne Moebus (2020): Struktureller und sozio-demographischer Wandel der Arbeitswelt und Änderung der beruflichen Mobilität in Deutschland 1980-2010. Essen, 19 S.

Abstract

"Der Wandel der Arbeitswelt und die Entwicklung der beruflichen Mobilität ist unter gesundheits- und präventionspolitischen Gesichtspunkten wegen einer möglichen Emergenz neuer Belastungsarten und der Einwanderung von Personen in belastungsintensive Berufe von Bedeutung. Bislang fehlt allerdings eine gemeinsame Analyse dieser Einflüsse. Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es, den demographischen und strukturellen Wandel der Arbeitswelt sowie die Änderung der beruflichen Mobilität anhand ausgewählter Indikatoren zu beschreiben. Wir fokussieren dabei auf sozio-demographische Kennzahlen und analysieren die Mobilität interbetrieblich (Wechsel der Arbeitgeber), interberuflich (Wechsel in andere Berufe), intersektoral (Wechsel in andere Branche) sowie interregional (Wechsel in ein anderes Bundesland). Datengrundlage ist die Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung. Bei dem sogenannten Regionalfile handelt sich um eine ca. 2 % Stichprobe aus der Grundgesamtheit der integrierten Erwerbsbiographien. Für den Zeitraum 1980 bis 2010 verdeutlichen die Auswertungen einen durchgreifenden sozio-demographischen und strukturellen Wandel der Arbeitswelt. Während sich in der Mehrzahl der Wirtschaftsgruppen eine Abnahme der Beschäftigung zeigt, gewinnen die ohnehin schon beschäftigungsstarken Branchen wie das Kredit- und Versicherungsgewerbe und die Erziehungs-, Sozial- und Gesundheitseinrichtungen weiter an Bedeutung. Es zeigt sich eine bedeutende Zunahme des Anteils der Frauen, der Teilzeittätigkeit, sowie eine Alterung und Qualifizierung in nahezu allen Wirtschaftsgruppen. Dabei erfasst der Wandel die Wirtschaftsgruppen und besonders die Berufe unterschiedlich stark. Gleichzeitig kann auch 2010 von typischen Frauenberufen mit Beschäftigungsanteilen von über 95 % gesprochen werden, etwa bei KindergärtnerInnen und SprechstundenhelferInnen. Die berufliche Mobilität hat im Hinblick auf alle betrachteten Mobilitätskennziffern zugenommen. Während sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigte im Jahr 1990 rechnerisch in 28 verschiedenen Betrieben arbeiteten (pro 100 Beschäftigungsjahre), waren es 2010 bereits 34. Die Änderungen fallen im Zeitraum 1990 bis 2000 größer aus als von 2000 zu 2010. Altersadjustiert bleibt eine kontinuierliche Zunahme der Betriebs-, Berufs und Branchenwechsel erhalten, während bei der räumlichen Mobilität über Bundesländer kein Trend beobachtet werden kann. Bei allen Kennziffern ist die berufliche Mobilität bei Jüngeren besonders ausgeprägt. Berufsspezifisch finden sich besonders auffällige Änderungen für Frauen mit Schweißer-, Post-, Verkehrs- und Industrieberufe; für Männer bei Kassierern und Friseuren. Diese Berufe sind dadurch gekennzeichnet, dass das Risiko für Betriebswechsel im Jahr 2010 im Vergleich zu 1990 um mindestens 30 % erhöht war. Die erzielten Ergebnisse können durch die Datenbasis beeinflusst sein. Z.B. sind geringfügig Beschäftigte erst seit 1999 in das gesetzliche Meldesystem eingeschlossen. Zudem ist eine Analyse der Ursachen der beruflichen Mobilität - etwa eine erhöhte Wechselbereitschaft oder erzwungene Wechsel - aufgrund der Datengrundlage nicht möglich." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos, Andrey Launov & Jean-Marc Robin (2020): The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis. (CESifo working paper 8799), München, 50 S.

Abstract

"In this paper we investigate the recent fall in unemployment, and the rise in part-time work and labour market participation amongst prime-aged Germans. We show that unemployment fell because the Hartz reforms induced a large fraction of the long-term unemployed to deregister as jobseekers. However, labour force participation actually increased because many female non-participants accepted low-paid, part-time jobs. Counterfactual simulations using estimated transition probabilities show that observed changes in the stocks of registered and unregistered unemployment as well as marginal, contributed part-time and full-time employment after 2002 essentially resulted from changes in registered and unregistered unemployment outflows. Yet to obtain the full decrease in registered male unemployment, we need to account for the effect of wage moderation. A calibrated Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model suggests that wage moderation is at most half as strong as the unemployment reforms in explaining changes in unemployment, non-participation and part-time employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Eppelsheimer, Johann (2020): Human Capital in Labor Economics - Novel Perspectives and Research Strategies. Regensburg, 156 S.

Abstract

"Das Bildungsniveau der Beschäftigten in Deutschland steigt kontinuierlich an. Zwischen 1980 und 2014 wuchs der Anteil der männlichen Vollzeitbeschäftigten mit einem Universitäts- oder FH-Abschluss in Westdeutschland von sechs auf 20 Prozent. Allerdings ist dieses Humankapital in Deutschland ungleich verteilt. Einerseits gibt es Städte, in denen über 30 Prozent der Beschäftigten studiert haben. Andererseits gibt es Regionen, in denen weniger als fünf Prozent der Beschäftigten einen Universitäts- oder FH-Abschluss haben.

Wissenschaftler argumentieren, dass Humankapital die Produktivität von Beschäftigten und Gesellschaften steigert. Analog zu Investitionen in Sachkapital erhöhen Investitionen in Humankapital die Fähigkeiten und die Effizienz von Personen. Die Forschung geht daher davon aus, dass Humankapital entscheidend für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ist und führt Einkommensunterschiede zwischen Nationen auf Unterschiede in deren Humankapital zurück. Durch höhere Löhne profitieren auch die Individuen selbst von Investitionen in ihr Humankapital. Zusätzlich erzeugt Humankapital positive externe Effekte, welche die Produktivität von sozialen Kontakten steigert.

Diese Dissertation trägt zum Thema Humankapital innerhalb von zwei Forschungsfeldern bei. Erstens ergänzt sie die Literatur zu Humankapitalexternalitäten, welche sich mit externen Effekten von individuellem Humankapital auf andere Individuen beschäftigt. Hier werden Humankapitalexternalitäten erstmalig aus einer dynamischen Perspektive betrachtet. Zusätzlich untersucht die Dissertation die geografische Reichweite von Humankapitalexternalitäten. Der zweite thematische Schwerpunkt der Arbeit trägt zur Forschung über Arbeitsmarkteffekte der Globalisierung bei. Hier wird gezeigt, dass Firmen interne Umstrukturierungen durchführen nachdem sie ausländischen Direktinvestitionen tätigen. Während der erste Schwerpunkt der Dissertation externe Produktivitätseffekte von Humankapital untersucht, beleuchtet der zweite Schwerpunkt die Entwicklung des Humankapitals von Beschäftigten nach einem exogenen Ereignis.

Die Literatur zu Humankapitalexternalitäten beschäftigt sich fast ausschließlich mit statischen externen Effekten von Humankapital innerhalb vordefinierter geografischer Einheiten. Mit dieser Dissertation wird die Literatur um zwei Perspektiven erweitern. Das erste Kapitel untersucht externe Effekte durch intranationale Migration von Hochqualifizierten. Hierfür wird der regionale Bestand an Humankapital in Zu- und Abwanderung, sowie Arbeitsmarkteintritte und Arbeitsmarktaustritte zerlegt. Diese Zerlegung erlaubt es, die zugrundeliegenden Mechanismen von Humankapitalexternalitäten genauer zu beleuchten und zu untersuchen, wie sich externe Effekte im Zeitverlauf entwickeln. Das zweite Kapitel analysiert die geografische Reichweite von Humankapitalexternalitäten. Erstmalig in der Forschung werden hierfür funktionale Datenanalyse und exakt geokodierte Sozialversicherungsdaten verwendet, welche es erlauben, einen funktionellen Zusammenhang von Humankapitalexternalitäten und räumlicher Distanz herzustellen. Dieser Ansatz ermöglicht es, die Reichweite und die räumliche Abnahme von Humankapitalexternalitäten zu bestimmen. Beide Kapitel verwenden neue Schätzmethoden, welche es erlauben, Humankapitalexternalitäten von Marktmechanismen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt zu trennen.

Der zweite Schwerpunkt der Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit Auswirkungen der Globalisierung auf den Arbeitsmarkt. Die Globalisierung führt zu einer veränderten Arbeitsnachfrage von Firmen. Die empirische Literatur hierzu beschäftigt sich hauptsächlich mit Effekten auf Löhne und Entlassungen und deutet auf heterogene Auswirkungen auf verschiedene Gruppen hin. Neben Lohnanpassungen und Entlassungen haben Firmen aber auch Anreize, sich intern umzustrukturieren. Statt vorhandene Beschäftigte zu entlassen und neue Arbeitskräfte einzustellen, kann es für Firmen Sinnvoll sein, interne Personalanpassungen durchzuführen. So verfügen interne Beschäftigte im Vergleich zu Externen über firmenspezifisches Humankapital. Auch Informationsasymmetrien bezüglich der Arbeitsproduktivität sind bei vorhandenen Beschäftigten geringer als bei Externen. Das dritte Kapitel dieser Dissertation beschäftigt sich daher mit der Frage, wie ausländische Direktinvestitionen firmeninterne Umstrukturierungen beeinflussen. Im Speziellen wird der Einfluss von ausländischen Direktinvestitionen auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Beschäftigte beruflich auf- oder absteigen und dadurch mehr oder weniger komplexe Tätigkeiten ausführen untersucht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Eppelsheimer, Johann & Christoph Rust (2020): The Spatial Decay of Human Capital Externalities - A Functional Regression Approach with Precise Geo-Referenced Data. (IAB-Discussion Paper 21/2020), Nürnberg, 55 S.

Abstract

"Wir analysieren Humankapitalexternalitäten von Hochqualifizierten mit präzisen georeferenzierten Sozialversicherungsdaten. Functional Regression ermöglicht es uns die Konzentration von Hochqualifizierten um Arbeitsplätze herum als kontinuierliche Kurven zu beschreiben und eine von der Entfernung abhängige Spillover-Funktion zu schätzen. Unsere umfangreichen Paneldaten ermöglichen es uns außerdem räumliche Selektion von Beschäftigten zu berücksichtigen und Humankapitalexternalitäten von Angebotseffekten mittels hochdimensionaler Fixed-Effekts zu trennen. Unsere Schätzungen zeigen, dass Humankapitalexternalitäten mit der Distanz abnehmen und etwa 15 Kilometer weit reichen. Humankapitalexternalitäten aus der unmittelbaren Nachbarschaft sind doppelt so hoch wie solche aus zehn Kilometern Entfernung." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Fitzenberger, Bernd & Arnim Seidlitz (2020): Die Lohnungleichheit von Vollzeitbeschäftigten in Deutschland. Rückblick und Überblick. (IAB-Discussion Paper 19/2020), Nürnberg, 24 S.

Abstract

"In Westdeutschland stieg zwischen 1980 und 2010 die Lohnungleichheit von Vollzeitbeschäftigten deutlich an. Der Anstieg beschränkte sich zunächst auf den oberen Bereich der Lohnverteilung und setzte sich ab Mitte der 1990er Jahre sowohl im oberen als auch im unteren Bereich der Lohnverteilung fort. Im Zeitraum 1995 bis 2010 ging die Entwicklung mit starken Reallohnverlusten im unteren Bereich der Lohnverteilung einher. Nach 2010 stiegen die Reallöhne über die gesamte Lohnverteilung deutlich an, aber die Lohnungleichheit für Vollzeitbeschäftigte verblieb auf hohem Niveau trotz eines leichten Rückgangs am untersten Ende der Verteilung ab 2015. Dieser Beitrag dokumentiert und interpretiert die Entwicklung der Lohnungleichheit und geht auf mögliche Datenprobleme ein." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Fitzenberger, Bernd & Arnim Seidlitz (2020): Die Lohnungleichheit von Vollzeitbeschäftigten in Deutschland. Rückblick und Überblick. In: Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Jg. 14, H. 2, S. 125-143., 2020-06-01. DOI:10.1007/s11943-020-00273-w

Abstract

"In Westdeutschland stieg zwischen 1980 und 2010 die Lohnungleichheit von Vollzeitbeschäftigten deutlich an. Der Anstieg beschränkte sich zunächst auf den oberen Bereich der Lohnverteilung und setzte sich ab Mitte der 1990er Jahre sowohl im oberen als auch im unteren Bereich der Lohnverteilung fort. Im Zeitraum 1995 bis 2010 ging die Entwicklung mit starken Reallohnverlusten im unteren Bereich der Lohnverteilung einher. Nach 2010 stiegen die Reallöhne über die gesamte Lohnverteilung deutlich an, aber die Lohnungleichheit für Vollzeitbeschäftigte verblieb auf hohem Niveau trotz eines leichten Rückgangs am untersten Ende der Verteilung ab 2015. Dieser Beitrag dokumentiert und interpretiert die Entwicklung der Lohnungleichheit und geht auf mögliche Datenprobleme ein." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Friedrich, Martin (2020): Using occupations to evaluate the employment effects of the German minimum wage. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 240, H. 2/3, S. 269-294., 2019-09-09. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2018-0085

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Klose, Sophie-Charlotte & Johannes Lederer (2020): A Pipeline for Variable Selection and False Discovery Rate Control With an Application in Labor Economics. (arXiv papers), 44 S.

Abstract

"We introduce tools for controlled variable selection to economists. In particular, we apply a recently introduced aggregation scheme for false discovery rate (FDR) control to German administrative data to determine the parts of the individual employment histories that are relevant for the career outcomes of women. Our results suggest that career outcomes can be predicted based on a small set of variables, such as daily earnings, wage increases in combination with a high level of education, employment status, and working experience." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kracke, Nancy & Margarida Rodrigues (2020): A Task-Based Indicator for Labour Market Mismatch. In: Social indicators research, Jg. 149, H. 2, S. 399-421., 2020-05-30. DOI:10.1007/s11205-019-02261-2

Abstract

"This article uses a task-based approach to measure labour market mismatch and to study the wage effects of mismatch. We propose a new indicator—cognitive mismatch—and contrast it with the commonly used overqualification indicator. We argue that considering the tasks performed in each occupation captures more adequately the complexity of job requirements and tackles the major drawbacks of the existing approaches measuring mismatch. Using rich administrative data from the German Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies, we find that 4.8% of the total employment episodes are matched in terms of qualification but mismatched in terms of the tasks performed. Fixed Effects models show that the largest wage loss occurs in cases of mismatch in both education level and tasks performed at work. We conclude that each indicator is capturing different facets of mismatch and that they should be used complementarily in labour market mismatch analyses." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Laible, Marie-Christine, Marine Seilles, Maria Alkhoury & Raphaëlle Fleureux (2020): New opportunities for comparative cross-country research in France and Germany. (FDZ-Datenreport 03/2020 (en)), Nürnberg, 40 S. DOI:10.5164/IAB.FDZD.2003.en.v1

Abstract

"Dieser Datenreport beschreibt die Zusammenarbeit des deutschen 'Forschungsdatenzentrums der Bundesagentur für Arbeit im Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung' (FDZ) und des französischen Forschungsdatenzentrums 'Centre d'Accès Sécurisé aux Données' (CASD). Diese länderübergreifende Zusammenarbeit hat sich zum Ziel gesetzt den Datenzugang, sowie ländervergleichende Forschung zu erleichtern. In enger Zusammenarbeit haben beide Institute die Vergleichbarkeit verschiedener Datensätze ermittelt. Des Weiteren wurde ein Vergleich der Variablen zweier großer administrativer Datensätze, der deutschen 'Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien' (SIAB) und dem französischen 'Panel tous salariés' (All Employee Panel), angestellt. Anmerkung: Der Vergleich der Datensätze ist allgemein gehalten und die tatsächliche Vergleichbarkeit kann mit dem Forschungsvorhaben variieren. Der Variablenvergleich stellt einen Ausgangspunkt für vergleichende Analysen dar, aber die tatsächliche Vergleichbarkeit kann von der spezifischen Forschungsfrage abhängen. Erarbeiten Forscherinnen und Forscher eine Harmonisierung der Variablen, bieten wir die Möglichkeit relevante do-files in einem zitationsfähigen Format zu veröffentlichen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Larsen, Christa, Julia Börner-Krekel & Philipp Funke (2020): Hessischer Lohnatlas. Aktualisierung 2020 - Bezugsjahr 2018. Wiesbaden, 499 S.

Abstract

"Um die Entgeltgleichheit zwischen Frauen und Männern gezielt und nachhaltig zu fördern, bedarf es einer hohen Transparenz, so dass passgenau Aktivitäten initiiert werden können. Die Neuauflage des Hessischen Lohnatlas knüpft an die Analysen von Entgeltdaten der Wohnbevölkerung zum Stand 2015 an (erstmals im Jahr 2017 vorgestellt) und zeigt transparent auf, wie sich die Lohnlücken bis zum Jahr 2018 verändert haben. Bei diesen Analysen finden ausschließlich sozialversicherungspflichtige Vollzeitbeschäftigte Berücksichtigung. Die Teilzeitbeschäftigten können in den Analysen nicht einbezogen werden, da keine Informationen zum Stundenumfang ihrer Teilzeitbeschäftigung vorliegen und damit nicht erfasst werden kann, in welchem Maße Entgeltunterschiede auch durch unterschiedliche Stundenzahlen zustande kommen. Zum Erfassen der Bruttomonatsentgelte wird auf öffentliche Daten (vor allem Stichtagsdaten 31.12.) zurückgegriffen, die vom Statistikservice Südwest der Regionaldirektion Hessen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit und dem Hessischen Statistischen Landesamt stammen. Bei diesen Daten handelt es sich um sogenannte Populationsdaten. Dies bedeutet, dass alle Einwohner*innen der Kreise und kreisfreien Städte in Hessen, zu denen entsprechende Entgeltdaten vorliegen, in den Analysen einbezogen werden. Die Analysen werden für Hessen sowie für jeden Kreis und jede kreisfreie Stadt durchgeführt. Damit können auf allen Ebenen noch bestehende Entgeltunterschiede zwischen Frauen und Männern in der jeweiligen Wohnbevölkerung erfasst werden. Die damit geschaffene Transparenz schafft eine wichtige Grundlage zum Diskurs über Ansätze, die die Förderung der Entgeltgleichheit im Land, aber auch vor Ort in den Regionen begünstigen können. Mit der Neuauflage des Hessischen Lohnatlas wird darüber hinaus erstmals die Entgeltlage von Frauen und Männern in den Betrieben vor Ort, also in den Kreisen und kreisfreien Städten, erfasst. Damit werden Aussagen zur Lage der Entgeltgleichheit in der lokalen Wirtschaft möglich. Mit dem Fokus auf die Betriebe vor Ort, sind auch jene Beschäftigte einbezogen, die täglich in den Kreis oder die kreisfreie Stadt zur Erwerbsarbeit einpendeln. Berücksichtigung findet hier, wie bereits oben ausgeführt, ausschließlich die Entgeltlage der in den Betrieben in sozialversicherungspflichtiger Vollzeit Beschäftigten. Basis der Analysen bilden Daten zu den durchschnittlichen Tagesbruttoentgelten im Jahr 2017 aus verschiedenen Stichproben, die durch das Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) zur Verfügung gestellt wurden. Anders als bei den obigen Populationsdaten können die Befunde aus der Analyse der Stichproben nicht einfach verallgemeinert werden. Die Ergebnisse sind als Trends zu interpretieren. Von besonderem Interesse ist bei diesen Analysen, in welchem Maße sich Merkmale wie beispielsweise die Betriebsgröße, die Geschlechterzusammensetzung der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten in den Betrieben oder die Branchenzugehörigkeit der Betriebe auf die Entgeltlücken zwischen Frauen und Männern auswirken können. Die mit diesen Analysen erzeugte Transparenz kann insbesondere den Akteuren der Wirtschaft deutlich machen, wo noch Handlungsbedarfe liegen, um die Entgeltgleichheit von Frauen und Männern in den Betrieben des Landes zu verbessern. Im Folgenden erfolgt zunächst die Darstellung aller Befunde auf der Ebene des Landes Hessen. Im Anschluss wird für jeden Kreis und jede kreisfreie Stadt ein Dossier vorgelegt. Damit lassen sich Unterschiede und Gemeinsamkeiten zwischen den Kreisen und den kreisfreien Städten sowohl hinsichtlich der Entgeltlage der Wohnbevölkerung als auch in Bezug auf die Entgeltlage in den Betrieben vor Ort erfassen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Lo, Ming Sum Simon, Enno Mammen & Ralf A. Wilke (2020): A nested copula duration model for competing risks with multiple spells. In: Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Jg. 150. DOI:10.1016/j.csda.2020.106986

Abstract

"A copula graphic estimator for the competing risks duration model with multiple spells is presented. By adopting a nested copula structure the dependencies between risks and spells are modelled separately. This breaks up an implicit restriction of popular duration models such as multivariate mixed proportional hazards. It is shown that the dependence structure between spells is identifiable and can be estimated, in contrast to the dependence structure between competing risks. Thus, by allowing these two components to differ, the model is not identifiable. This is an important finding related to the general identifiability of competing risks models. Various features of the model are investigated by simulations and its practicality is illustrated by an application to unemployment duration data." (Author's abstract, © 2020 Elsevier) ((en))

Zitatform

Lorenz, Svenja, Mona Pfister & Thomas Zwick (2020): Beware of the employer: financial incentives for employees may fail to prolong old age employment. (ZEW discussion paper 2020-007), Mannheim, 39 S.

Abstract

"This paper shows that increasing the normal retirement age and introducing pension deductions for retirement before normal retirement age in Germany did not prolong employment of older men. The reason for this surprising result is that employers encouraged their employees to use the bridge options unemployment or partial retirement instead of the early retirement option for the long-term insured. Bridge options allowed employers to terminate employment considerably earlier than the pension for long-term insured. Employers however had to compensate their employees for the substantially higher costs of the bridge options. Therefore mainly employers with high employment adaption costs induced employees to use a bridge option during the implementation phase of the pension reform." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Mergele, Lukas & Michael Weber (2020): Public employment services under decentralization. Evidence from a natural experiment. In: Journal of Public Economics, Jg. 182. DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104113

Abstract

This paper studies whether the decentralization of public employment services (PES) increases job placements among the unemployed. Decentralizing PES has been a widely applied reform used by governments aiming to enhance their efficacy. However, economic theory is ambiguous about its effects, and empirical evidence has been scarce. Using a difference-in-differences design, we exploit unique within-country variation in decentralization provided by the partial devolution of German job centers in 2012. We find that decentralization reduces job placements by approximately 10%. Decentralized providers expand the use of public job creation schemes which diminish job seekers' reemployment prospects but shift costs to higher levels of government. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Mergele, Lukas & Michael Weber (2020): Jobcenter: Optionskommunen vermitteln Arbeitslose seltener in Beschäftigung. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 73, H. 2, S. 39-44.

Abstract

"Die Jobcenter in Deutschland werden entweder als „gemeinsame Einrichtungen“ von Kommunen und der lokalen Agentur für Arbeit oder in „Optionskommunen“ allein von den Kommunen geführt. Die Umwandlung von 41 gemeinsamen Einrichtungen in Optionskommunen im Jahr 2012 erlaubt es, den Erfolg der Vermittlungsarbeit der beiden Trägerformen zu evaluieren. Die Analyse zeigt, dass Optionskommunen gegenüber gemeinsamen Einrichtungen 10% weniger Arbeitslose in den ersten Arbeitsmarkt vermitteln. Hingegen weisen sie mehr Personen „Ein-Euro-Jobs“ zu, die jedoch wenig geeignet sind, die Übergangschancen in den ersten Arbeitsmarkt zu erhöhen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Pollmann, Daniel, Thomas Dohmen & Franz Palm (2020): Robust Estimation of Wage Dispersion with Censored Data: An Application to Occupational Earnings Risk and Risk Attitudes. (ECONtribute discussion paper 28), Köln ; Bonn, 23 S.

Abstract

"We present a semiparametric method to estimate group-level dispersion, which is particularly effective in the presence of censored data. We apply this procedure to obtain measures of occupation-specific wage dispersion using top-coded administrative wage data from the German IAB Employment Sample (IABS). We then relate these robust measures of earnings risk to the risk attitudes of individuals working in these occupations. We find that willingness to take risk is positively correlated with the wage dispersion of an individual's occupation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Riphahn, Regina T. & Rebecca Schrader (2020): Institutional reforms of 2006 and the dramatic rise in old-age employment in Germany. In: ILR review, Jg. 73, H. 5, S. 1185-1225. DOI:10.1177/0019793919863378

Abstract

"The authors investigate whether a cut in unemployment benefit payout periods enacted in Germany in 2006 affected older workers' labor market transitions. The authors use rich administrative data and exploit a difference-in-differences approach. During 2004 - 2007, using monthly observations, they compare a reference group of 40 - 44 year olds with constant benefit payout periods to older treatment groups with reduced payout durations. Compared to the reference group, those groups with reduced payout periods had lower job exit rates, higher rates of finding a job, higher propensity to remain employed, and lower propensity to remain unemployed. These patterns suggest that the reform may have contributed to the recent rise in old-age employment in Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Sanchez, Manuel & Felix Wellschmied (2020): Modeling life-cycle earnings risk with positive and negative shocks. In: Review of Economic Dynamics, Jg. 37, S. 103-126. DOI:10.1016/j.red.2019.11.003

Zitatform

Tazhitdinova, Alissa (2020): Do only tax incentives matter? Labor supply and demand responses to an unusually large and salient tax break. In: Journal of Public Economics, Jg. 184. DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104162

Abstract

"I explore labor supply responses to an unusually large and salient notch generated by the “Mini-Job” program in Germany. Using administrative data, I document three findings. First, despite the unusually large magnitude of incentives, earnings elasticities are modest, even after accounting for frictions. Second, the observed response cannot be fully attributed to labor supply alone; rather, the observed outcomes are highly dependent on the availability of jobs and, so are strongly influenced by labor demand incentives. Third, I show that these firm incentives are likely driven by the fact that mini-job workers receive lower fringe-benefit payments." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

Zitatform

Trede, Mark & Michael Zimmermann (2020): Regional labour migration - Stylized facts for Germany. (CQR working papers 2020,93), Münster, 29 S.

Abstract

"We present stylized facts of the local German labour markets in a systematic way. Using a large German administrative dataset and newly available regional price level data, we study workers' biographies at the local level. Huge regional variation is documented in: unemployment rates and nominal as well as real wages. The distinction between urban and rural areas plays a substantial role. We show that the real wage gap between East and West Germany still persists 30 years after reunification whereas unemployment rates tend to converge. We investigate monthly worker flows across 328 regions (roughly equivalent to NUTS 3 regions or "Landkreise"). Unemployed workers in depressed regions are less likely to move to a new working place in another region than unemployed workers in prosperous regions. The most (and increasingly) mobile group are unemployed workers in dense and active regions. Employed workers are less willing to move and have procyclical fluctuations in their moving rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bachmann, Ronald & Peggy Bechara (2019): The importance of two-sided heterogeneity for the cyclicality of labour market dynamics. In: The Manchester School, Jg. 87, H. 6, S. 794-820. DOI:10.1111/manc.12269

Abstract

"Using administrative data on individual workers' employment history and firms, we investigate the cyclicality of worker flows on the German labour market. Focusing on heterogeneities on both sides of the labour market, we find that small firms hire much more workers from unemployment than large firms, and that they do so at the very beginning of an economic expansion. Later on in the expansion, overall hirings more frequently result from direct job-to-job transitions to larger firms. Transitions from unemployment to employment at large firms are generally found to be more (pro-)cyclical. However, this stylized fact disappears when the composition of the workforce is controlled for." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))