Auswirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland
Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt stehen seit der Ausbreitung des Coronavirus vor großen Herausforderungen. Zur Unterstützung von Beschäftigten und Unternehmen hatte der Bundestag im Eilverfahren u.a. einen leichteren Zugang zum Kurzarbeitergeld beschlossen. Dieses Themendossier stellt Einschätzungen aus Forschung und Politik zu den Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf den Arbeitsmarkt, die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und notwendige Maßnahmen in Deutschland zusammen.
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Auswirkungen auf Wirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt und Soziales in Deutschland
- Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Maßnahmen
- Exit-Strategien zur Beendigung des Lockdowns
- Kurzarbeit - Regelungen und Inanspruchnahme während der Pandemie
- Homeoffice/mobiles Arbeiten
- Auswirkungen auf Betriebe
- Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Grundsicherung nach SGB II
- Einkommenseffekte
- Einzelne Berufe und Branchen
- Berufsausbildung/Lehrstellenmarkt
- Zukunftsszenarien: Wird die Wirtschaft nach Corona nachhaltiger?
- Soziale und gesundheitliche Aspekte
- Corona und Care
- Weiterbildung
- Konjunkturpaket zur Förderung der Wirtschaft
- Personengruppen
- Regionale Aspekte
- Internationale Arbeitsmärkte / Auswirkungen der Globalisierung
- Bundesländer
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Literaturhinweis
How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID-19 shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn? (2020)
Dey, Matthew; Loewenstein, Mark A.;Zitatform
Dey, Matthew & Mark A. Loewenstein (2020): How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID-19 shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn? In: Monthly labor review, Jg. 143, H. April. DOI:10.21916/mlr.2020.6
Abstract
"This article examines the labor market impacts of establishment shutdowns implemented in response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The analysis focuses on sectors directly exposed to the shutdowns and uses data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Occupational Employment Statistics programs of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home? (2020)
Zitatform
Dingel, Jonathan I. & Brent Neiman (2020): How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home? In: Covid economics H. 1, S. 16-24.
Abstract
"We classify the feasibility of working at home for all occupations. About 34% of US jobs, accounting for 44% of overall wages, can plausibly be performed at home. This share varies considerably across cities and industries. We hope our results are useful for understanding the economic impact of social distancing and formulating policy responses. Our classifications could be easily applied to other countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wirtschaftspolitische Reaktion mildert Corona-Einbruch: Verhaltene Erholung in Sicht (2020)
Dullien, Sebastian ; Herzog-Stein, Alexander ; Stephan, Sabine; Hohlfeld, Peter; Tober, Silke; Rietzler, Katja; Theobald, Thomas ; Watzka, Sebastian;Zitatform
Dullien, Sebastian, Alexander Herzog-Stein, Peter Hohlfeld, Katja Rietzler, Sabine Stephan, Silke Tober, Thomas Theobald & Sebastian Watzka (2020): Wirtschaftspolitische Reaktion mildert Corona-Einbruch: Verhaltene Erholung in Sicht. (IMK Report 160), Düsseldorf, 28 S.
Abstract
"Die Corona-Krise hat die Weltwirtschaft in eine tiefe Rezession gestürzt. Im ersten Halbjahr 2020 ist die globale Wirtschaftsaktivität stark geschrumpft. Im Prognosezeitraum dürfte die weltwirtschaftliche Produktion mit Unterstützung der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik wieder spürbar ausgeweitet werden. Dennoch wird sich die wirtschaftliche Erholung nur allmählich vollziehen. Auch die deutsche Wirtschaft verzeichnete im ersten Halbjahr 2020 einen starken Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP). Die wirtschaftspolitischen Akteure reagierten zügig mit Liquiditätshilfen und Nachfragestimuli und bannten so die Gefahr einer sich selbst verstärkenden Abwärtsbewegung. Unter der Annahme, dass Corona-Ausbrüche lokal begrenzt werden können, ist mit einem Rückgang des BIP um 6,2 % in diesem Jahr und einem Anstieg um 3,8 % im kommenden Jahr zu rechnen. Trotz der Stützungsmaßnahmen macht sich die Corona-Krise auch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt bemerkbar. Die sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung sinkt zwar – wegen einer massiven Nutzung von Kurzarbeit – nur wenig, aber die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen insgesamt nimmt infolge des Rückgangs bei den Selbstständigen und Mini-Jobbern in beiden Jahren ab. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird von 5,0 % im Jahr 2019 auf 6,3 % im Jahr 2021 steigen. Die Inflationsrate bleibt mit 0,5 % und 1,3 % in beiden Jahre" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Virus-Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession (2020)
Dullien, Sebastian ; Watzka, Sebastian; Paetz, Christoph; Stephan, Sabine; Tober, Silke; Herzog-Stein, Alexander ; Hohlfeld, Peter; Theobald, Thomas ;Zitatform
Dullien, Sebastian, Alexander Herzog-Stein, Peter Hohlfeld, Christoph Paetz, Sabine Stephan, Thomas Theobald, Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka (2020): Virus-Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession. (IMK Report 157), Düsseldorf, 33 S.
Abstract
"Unter der Annahme, dass die umfangreichen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung von Covid-19 ab Mai gelockert werden, ist mit einem Rückgang des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) um 4 % in diesem Jahr zu rechnen. Das BIP dürfte insbesondere im zweiten Quartal 2020 stark einbrechen, aber auch im dritten Quartal noch negativ ausfallen und sich erst im vierten Quartal zaghaft erholen. Der private Konsum wird trotz umfangreicher Stützungsmaßnahmen zwei Quartale lang schrumpfen, dann aber die Erholung tragen. Besonders deutlich sinken die Exporte und die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen, während sich Staatskonsum und Bau durchgängig positiv entwickeln und einen noch stärkeren Wirtschaftseinbruch verhindern. Geprägt von Nachholeffekten dürfte das BIP im Jahresdurchschnitt 2021 um 2,4 % zunehmen. Angesichts eines zeitweilig starken Anstiegs der Kurzarbeit geht die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen in beiden Jahren nur leicht zurück. Die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte von 5,0 % im Jahr 2019 auf 5,5 % im Jahr 2021 steigen. Die Risiken sind hoch und eine verschärfte weltwirtschaftliche Abschwächung kombiniert mit einschränkenden Maßnahmen für weitere zwei Monate würde zu einer mehr als doppelt so starken Wirkung des Schocks auf das deutsche BIP führen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Auswirkungen der COVID-19 Epidemie auf die chinesische Wirtschaft: eine erste Abschätzung (2020)
Zitatform
Döhrn, Roland (2020): Auswirkungen der COVID-19 Epidemie auf die chinesische Wirtschaft. Eine erste Abschätzung. (RWI-Materialien 134), Essen, 7 S.
Abstract
"In China nimmt die Zahl der mit dem neuen Coronavirus Infizierten weiter zu. Die chinesische Regierung versucht die Verbreitung der Infektion zu verhindern und hat die am stärksten betroffene Provinz Hubei vom Rest des Landes abgeriegelt. Der Beitrag liefert eine erste Abschätzung der wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Epidemie für China. Sie baut auf den Erfahrungen der SARS Epidemie auf und diskutiert mögliche Wirkungskanäle. Die Schätzung der Wirkungen auf das chinesische Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) setzt an der Zusammensetzung der Wirtschaft nach Wirtschaftszweigen, der wirtschaftlichen Bedeutung der Provinz Hubei und einer Abschätzung der Betroffenheit der Wirtschaftszweige an. Sie ergibt einen dämpfenden Effekt auf die Zunahme des BIP im ersten Quartal 2020 von etwa 4 Prozentpunkten. Rechnet man gegen, dass Auslandsreisen von Chinesen praktisch unterbunden sind, ermäßigt sich der negative Effekt auf etwa 2,5 Prozentpunkte, weil weniger Einkommen ins Ausland abfließt. Der wirtschaftliche Schaden im ersten Quartal würde sich somit auf rund 405 Milliarden Yuan bzw. knapp 54 Milliarden Euro belaufen. Dies ist eine eher vorsichtige Schätzung, die eine Einschränkung der Produktionstätigkeit für etwa einen Monat unterstellt. Mit der Dauer der Beschränkungen könnten die negativen Wirkungen überproportional zunehmen, weil eine zunehmende Zahl von Unternehmen wegen ausbleibender Zulieferungen der Produktion einschränken muss." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
WIFO-Konjunkturszenario: Scharfer, aber im besten Fall kurzer Einbruch der Konjunktur infolge der Coronavirus-Pandemie (2020)
Zitatform
Ederer, Stefan (2020): WIFO-Konjunkturszenario: Scharfer, aber im besten Fall kurzer Einbruch der Konjunktur infolge der Coronavirus-Pandemie. Wien, 10 S.
Abstract
"Die Coronavirus-Pandemie belastet derzeit die internationale und österreichische Konjunktur. Im 1. Halbjahr 2020 ist weltweit mit deutlichen Einbußen in der Wirtschaftsleistung zu rechnen. Die Auswirkungen hängen wesentlich davon ab, wie lange und in welchem Ausmaß die Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Virusübertragung in Kraft bleiben. Im gegenwärtigen Umfeld kann daher nur in Szenarien gerechnet werden. Wenn die aktuellen Maßnahmen bis Ende April in Kraft bleiben, im Mai allmählich aufgehoben werden und sich die Lage im Sommer normalisiert, dürfte die österreichische Wirtschaft 2020 um 2,5% schrumpfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The Macroeconomics of Epidemics (2020)
Eichenbaum, Martin S.; Trabandt, Mathias; Rebelo, Sergio;Zitatform
Eichenbaum, Martin S., Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt (2020): The Macroeconomics of Epidemics. (NBER working paper 26882), Cambridge, Mass., 28 S. DOI:10.3386/w26882
Abstract
"We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our model implies that people’s decision to cut back on Consumption and work reduces the severity of the epidemic, as measured by total deaths. These decisions exacerbate the size of the recession caused by the epidemic. The competitive equilibrium is not socially optimal because infected people do not fully internalize the effect of their economic decisions on the spread of the virus. In our benchmark scenario, the optimal containment Policy increases the severity of the recession but saves roughly 0.6 million lives in the U.S." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
IZA COVID-19 Crisis Response Monitoring: Short-Run Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19, Initial Policy Measures and Beyond (2020)
Eichhorst, Werner; Arni, Patrick ; Verstraten, Paul; Costa, Rui; Nordström Skans, Oskar ; Colussi, Tommaso ; Houseman, Susan; Hensvik, Lena ; Marx, Paul ; Rinne, Ulf ; Ferreira, Priscila ; Leoni, Thomas ; Cerejeira, Joao; Machin, Stephen; Portela, Miguel ; Böheim, René ; Martiskova, Monika; Jongen, Egbert ; Ramos, Raul ; Cahuc, Pierre ; Kahanec, Martin ;Zitatform
Eichhorst, Werner, Paul Marx, Ulf Rinne, René Böheim, Thomas Leoni, Pierre Cahuc, Tommaso Colussi, Egbert Jongen, Paul Verstraten, Priscila Ferreira, Joao Cerejeira, Miguel Portela, Raul Ramos, Martin Kahanec, Monika Martiskova, Lena Hensvik, Oskar Nordström Skans, Patrick Arni, Rui Costa, Stephen Machin & Susan Houseman (2020): IZA COVID-19 Crisis Response Monitoring: Short-Run Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19, Initial Policy Measures and Beyond. (IZA research report 98), Bonn, 153 S.
Abstract
"The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has a severe impact on societies, economies and labor markets. However, not all countries, socio-economic groups and sectors are equally affected. For example, occupational groups working in sectors where value chains have been disrupted and lockdowns have had direct impacts are affected more heavily, while the slowdown of hiring activities mostly affects young labor market entrants. As a result, there has been a steep increase in unemployment rates in many countries, but not everywhere to the same extent. Part of this difference can be related to the different role and extent of short-time work schemes, which is now being used more widely than during the Great Recession. Some countries have created or expanded these schemes, making coverage less exclusive and benefits more generous, at least temporarily. But short-time work is certainly not a panacea to “flatten the unemployment curve”. Furthermore, next to providing liquidity support to firms, unemployment benefits have been made more generous in many countries. Often, activation principles have also been temporarily reduced. Some countries have increased access to income support to some extent also for non-standard workers, such as temporary agency workers or self-employed workers, on an ad hoc basis. A major change in working conditions is the broad move towards telework arrangements and work from home. Nonetheless, it appears too early to assess the relative success of national strategies to cope with the pandemic and to revitalize the labor market as well as the medium-term fiscal viability of different support measures. Future monitoring will also have to trace policies to cope with the imminent structural changes that might result from the crisis or might be accelerated by the crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Economic policy responses to a pandemic: Developing the Covid-19 economic stimulus index (2020)
Zitatform
Elgin, Ceyhun, Gokce Basbug & Abdullah Yalaman (2020): Economic policy responses to a pandemic. Developing the Covid-19 economic stimulus index. In: Covid economics H. 3, S. 40-53.
Abstract
"In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive review of different economic policy measures adopted by 166 countries as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic and create a large database including fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate measures. Furthermore, using principle component analysis (PCA), we construct a COVID-19 Economic Stimulus Index (CESI) that combines all adopted policy measures. This index standardises economic responses taken by governments and allows us to study cross-country differences in policies. Finally, using simple cross-country OLS regressions we report that the median age of the population, the number of hospital beds per-capita, GDP per-capita, and the number of total cases are all significantly associated with the extent of countries’ economic policy responses." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Who can log in? The importance of skills for the feasibility of teleworking arrangements across OECD countries (2020)
Zitatform
Espinoza, Ricardo & Laura Reznikova (2020): Who can log in? The importance of skills for the feasibility of teleworking arrangements across OECD countries. (OECD social, employment and migration working papers 242), Paris, 25 S. DOI:10.1787/3f115a10-en
Abstract
"COVID-19 lockdowns have radically changed the working arrangements for millions of workers. But who are the workers best positioned to work from home? Drawing on data from the OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), we show that workers possessing higher levels of skills are significantly more likely to telework in OECD countries. We show that while 30% of workers could telework across the OECD, the likelihood decreases for workers without tertiary education and with lower levels of numeracy and literacy skills. The findings raise important questions with respect to the extent to which the pandemic could exacerbate existing labour market inequalities, and the extent to which these inequalities could further worsen amidst intensified technology adoption in the pandemic’s aftermath." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The COVID confinement measures and EU labor markets (2020)
Fana, Marta ; Tolan, Songül; Torrejón Pérez, Sergio; Urzì Brancati, Maria Cesira ; Fernández-Macías, Enrique ;Zitatform
Fana, Marta, Songül Tolan, Sergio Torrejón Pérez, Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Enrique Fernández-Macías (2020): The COVID confinement measures and EU labor markets. (JRC technical report), Brüssel, 29 S. DOI:10.2760/69199
Abstract
"This paper assesses the potential impact of the early 2020 COVID confinement measures on EU labour markets, on the basis of an analysis of the restrictions on economic activity imposed in three EU Member States (Italy, Spain and Germany). Following the legislative measures adopted, we classify all economic sectors into different categories according to the likely impact of the COVID crisis, and compare the share of employment that is likely to be strongly affected in each country. Once this is done, we apply these categories of sectors to recent data on EU employment and estimate the groups of workers that would be more or less affected by the economic lockdown measures. Finally, we use all this information to speculate about possible mid-term developments and broader socio-economic implications of the COVID crisis in Europe." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report: BPEA Conference Drafts, September 24, 2020 (2020)
Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Jones, Charles I.;Zitatform
Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Charles I. Jones (2020): Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report. BPEA Conference Drafts, September 24, 2020. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity H. Fall, S. 111-146.
Abstract
"This paper combines data on GDP, unemployment, and Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths from COVID-19 to study the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic. We present results from an international perspective using data at the country level as well as results for individual U.S. states and key cities throughout the world. The data from these different levels of geographic aggregation offer a remarkably similar view of the pandemic despite the substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Countries like Korea, Japan, Germany, and Norway and cities such as Tokyo and Seoul have comparatively few deaths and low macroeconomic losses. At the other extreme, New York City, Lombardy, the United Kingdom, and Madrid have many deaths and large macroeconomic losses. There are fewer locations that seem to succeed on one dimension but suffer on the other, but these include California and Sweden and potentially offer useful policy lessons." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Welfare resilience in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy (2020)
Zitatform
Figari, Francesco & Carlo V. Fiorio (2020): Welfare resilience in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 92-119.
Abstract
"This paper analyses the extent to which the Italian welfare system provides monetary compensation for those who lost their earnings due to the lockdown imposed by the government in order to contain the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. In assessing first-order effects of the businesses temporarily shut down and the government’s policy measures on household income, counterfactual scenarios are simulated with EUROMOD, the EU-wide microsimulation model, integrated with information on the workers who the lockdown is more likely to affect. This paper provides timely evidence on the differing degrees of relative and absolute resilience of the household incomes of the individuals affected by the lockdown. These arise from the variations in the protection offered by the tax-benefit system, coupled with personal and household circumstances of the individuals at risk of income loss." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa und den USA unter Covid-19: besser im Korsett einer Versicherungslogik eingeengt oder den Launen eines Präsidialsystems ausgeliefert? (2020)
Zitatform
Fischer, Georg & Günther Schmid (2020): Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa und den USA unter Covid-19. Besser im Korsett einer Versicherungslogik eingeengt oder den Launen eines Präsidialsystems ausgeliefert? (WZB discussion paper : Emeriti 2020-001), Berlin, 16 S.
Abstract
"Die Auswirkungen der von Covid-19 ausgelösten Wirtschaftskrise auf die Arbeitslosigkeit könnten kaum unterschiedlicher sein als in den USA und Europa. Das gilt auch für die politischen Reaktionen: Während die EU-27 die Arbeitslosigkeit bisher weitgehend durch massiven Einsatz von Kurzarbeit in Schach halten konnte, herrscht in den USA eine Massenarbeitslosigkeit, die an die Große Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929/30 erinnert. Statt mit Kurzarbeit reagierten die USA u.a. mit massiven Sozialtransfers für bestimmte Gruppen von Arbeitslosen, die manche Einkommen kurzfristig sogar besserstellen als bei Beschäftigung. Umgekehrt werden die sozialpolitischen Probleme und die wirtschaftspolitischen Grenzen der Kurzarbeit in der EU deutlicher sichtbar. Es ist also noch nicht ausgemacht, welches dieser beiden Wirtschafts- und Sozialsysteme langfristig den durch die Krise beschleunigten Strukturwandel besser bewältigen wird. Dieser Essay argumentiert, dass der europäische Ansatz eine humanere und effektivere Lösung der Krisenbewältigung verspricht, aber nur, wenn die Mitgliedstaaten und die Europäische Union einen den Strukturwandel unterstützenden Weg aus der Kurzarbeit finden und von einigen Stärken des US-Systems lernen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
COVID-19 und Reglementierung von Berufen – gibt es auch Lichtblicke? (2020)
Zitatform
Frohn, Martin (2020): COVID-19 und Reglementierung von Berufen – gibt es auch Lichtblicke? In: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, Jg. 69, H. 2, S. 140-147. DOI:10.1515/zfwp-2020-2036
Abstract
"The Covid-19 crisis has had a severe impact on society and the economy. Some countries reacted with regulatory relaxations to cope with the crisis and digitisation of services provided possibilities to maintain service activities during the general lockdown measures. It became even more apparent that regulating access to and exercise of professional activities can have negative effects on adaptability of businesses and development of new and innovative business models. The recent adoption of an EU directive on a proportionality test, obliging Member States to carry out a thorough assessment of the effects of regulation before its adoption, provides guidance and a toolbox to ensure monitoring and adaptation of regulatory frameworks in view of developments such as those we have witnessed very recently. Regulatory trends in Member States and in particular in Germany go in opposite directions: While tightening of access requirements in craft professions, the German government considers significant reforms in legal services. In particular as regards the tightening of restrictions, it is expected that the EU directive on a proportionality test will lead to more sound and fact-based regulatory decisions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The labour market policy response to COVID-19 must save aggregate matching capital (2020)
Zitatform
Fujita, Shigeru, Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay (2020): The labour market policy response to COVID-19 must save aggregate matching capital. In: VOX, o. Sz.
Abstract
"The COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented shock to labour markets. This column argues that the policy response should balance two objectives: (1) facilitating prompt reallocation of employment to essential activities during the emergency, and (2) maintaining workers’ attachment to their previous employers, preserving the aggregate stock of firm-specific human capital, and avoiding persistent mismatch, which would propagate the temporary shock into a prolonged stagnation. The authors make concrete labour market policy proposals and compare them with measures currently being implemented on both sides of the Atlantic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Covid: Not a great equaliser (2020)
Zitatform
Galasso, Vincenzo (2020): Covid: Not a great equaliser. In: Covid economics H. 19, S. 241-255.
Abstract
"Coronavirus has been portrayed as the “great equalizer”. None seems immune to the virus and to the economic consequences of the lockdown measures imposed to contain its diffusion. We exploit novel data from two real time surveys to study the early impact on the labor market of the lockdown in Italy – one of the two countries, with China, hit hard and early. COVID was not a “great economic equalizer.” Quite on the contrary. Low-educated workers, blue collars and low-income service workers were more likely to have stopped working both threeweek and six-week after the lockdown. Low-educated workers were less likely to work from home. Blue collars worked more from their regular workplace, but not from home. Low-income service workers were instead less likely to work from the regular workplace. For both blue collars and low-income service workers, the monthly labor income dropped already in March. Not surprisingly, they were less in agreement with the public policy measures that required the closing of (non-essential) business and activities. Some positive adjustments took place between the third and the sixth week from the lockdown: the share of idle workers dropped, as the proportion of individuals working at home and from their regular workplace increased. However, these adjustments benefitted mostly highly educated workers and white collars. Overall, low-income individuals faced worse labor market outcomes and suffered higher psychological costs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession: BPEA conference drafts, September 24, 2020 (2020)
Zitatform
Gallant, Jessica, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo (2020): Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession. BPEA conference drafts, September 24, 2020. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity H. Fall, S. 167-216.
Abstract
"This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the US. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001-2019, and we find that the model-based job finding rates match observed job finding rates during the entire sample period and out-of-sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well-behaved and displays little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, job separation rate, and the recall rate of workers on temporary layo↵ must deteriorate substantially from current levels in the next several months." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Pandemic Requires a Coordinated Global Economic Response (2020)
García Herrero, Alicia;Zitatform
García Herrero, Alicia (2020): The Pandemic Requires a Coordinated Global Economic Response. In: Intereconomics, Jg. 55, H. 2, S. 66-67. DOI:10.1007/s10272-020-0871-7
Abstract
"Global pandemics are costly for many reasons. First and foremost, for their death toll and, more generally, for health and social reasons. The second reason is economic. I will focus on the latter given my field of expertise. The economic impact of a pandemic depends upon the way it is tackled both from a health and an economic perspective. Regarding the former, strategies to deal with pandemics are mainly twofold, with two different economic outcomes. The first, mitigation, focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping the spread of the virus, with the objective of reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk. The second, suppression, aims at reversing the epidemic growth but with the risk of a rebound any time the suppression measures are lifted. The first is bound to last longer but have less intense social and economic consequences. The second should be faster but also carries extreme economic consequences, not only due to vanishing demand but also collapsing supply. The hope, though, is that the economy can recover more quickly as long as there is no pick up in the number of cases. It should be noted that a pandemic tends to have a timeframe of 18 months, until a vaccine becomes available." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Modelling contacts and transitions in the SIR epidemics model (2020)
Zitatform
Garibaldi, Pietro, Espen R. Moen & Christopher A. Pissarides (2020): Modelling contacts and transitions in the SIR epidemics model. In: Covid economics H. 5, S. 1-20.
Abstract
"Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic economists have turned to the SIR model and its subsequent variants for the study of the pandemic's economic impact. But the SIR model is lacking the optimising behaviour of economic models, in which agents can inuence future transitions with their present actions. We borrow ideas and modelling techniques from the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) search and matching model and show that there is a well-defined solution in line with the original claims of Kermack and McKendrick (1927) but in which incentives play a role in determining the transitions. There are also externalities that justify government intervention in the form of imposing more restrictions on actions outside the home than a decentralised equilibrium would yield." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Coronavirus hält Weltkonjunktur in Atem (2020)
Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Hauber, Philipp; Hauber, Philipp;Zitatform
Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Philipp Hauber (2020): Coronavirus hält Weltkonjunktur in Atem. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 100, H. 3, S. 223-224. DOI:10.1007/s10273-020-2607-5
Abstract
"Studien zu den wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen von Epidemien rekurrieren zumeist auf die Effekte, die direkt aus einer Reduzierung des Arbeitsangebots durch höheren Krankenstand und durch krankheitsbedingte Todesfälle resultieren. Für die Konjunktur sind aber indirekte Wirkungen, die von Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Epidemie oder Verhaltensänderungen der Konsumenten ausgehen, bislang von größerer Bedeutung." (Textauszug, © Springer-Verlag)
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Literaturhinweis
Building effective short-time work schemes for the COVID-19 crisis (2020)
Zitatform
Giupponi, Giulia & Camille Landais (2020): Building effective short-time work schemes for the COVID-19 crisis. In: VOX H. 01.04.2020, o. Sz.
Abstract
"Short-time work is a subsidy for temporary reductions in the number of hours worked in firms affected by temporary shocks. Evidence suggests that it can have large positive effects on employment and can be more effective than unemployment insurance or universal transfers. This column discusses how the COVID-19 crisis - with its mandated reduction in hours of work and massive liquidity crunch for firms - is a textbook case for the use of short-time work. Taking into account available evidence and the current situation, it proposes guidelines to effectively implement short-term work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic (2020)
Zitatform
Glover, Andrew, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull (2020): Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic. In: Covid economics H. 6, S. 22-64.
Abstract
"Many countries are shutting non-essential sectors of the economy to slow the spread of Covid-19. Older individuals have most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in sectors that are shuttered have the most to lose. In this paper we extend a standard epidemiological model of disease progression to include heterogeneity by age, and multiple sources of disease transmission. We then incorporate the epidemiological block into a multisector economic model in which workers differ by sector (basic and luxury) as well as by health status. We study optimal mitigation policies of a utilitarian government that can redistribute resources across individuals, but where such redistribution is costly. We show that optimal redistribution and mitigation policies interact, and reflect a compromise between the strongly diverging preferred policy paths across the subgroups of the population." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Working from home across countries (2020)
Zitatform
Gottlieb, Charles, Jan Grobovšek & Markus Poschke (2020): Working from home across countries. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 71-91.
Abstract
"We study how the share of employment that can work from home changes with country income levels. We document that in urban areas, this share is only about 20% in poor countries, compared to close to 40% in rich ones. This result is driven by the self-employed workers: in poor countries their share of employment is large and their occupational composition not conducive to work from home. At the level of the entire country, the share of employment that can work from home in poor countries compared to rich countries depends on farmers' ability to work from home. This finding is due to the high agricultural employment share in poor countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Pandemic recession: L-shaped or V-shaped? (2020)
Zitatform
Gregory, Victoria, Guido Menzio & David Wiczer (2020): Pandemic recession: L-shaped or V-shaped? In: Covid economics H. 15, S. 88-109.
Abstract
"We develop and calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market in order to forecast the evolution of the aggregate US labor market during and after the coronavirus pandemic. The model is designed to capture the heterogeneity of the transitions of individual workers across states of unemployment, employment and across different employers. The model is also designed to capture the trade-offs in the choice between temporary and permanent layoffs. Under reasonable parametrizations of the model, the lockdown instituted to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus is shown to have long-lasting negative effects on unemployment. This is so because the lockdown disproportionately disrupts the employment of workers who need years to find stable jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
Zitatform
Han, Jeehoon, Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan (2020): Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic. (NBER working paper 27729), Cambridge, MA, 65 S. DOI:10.3386/w27729
Abstract
"This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on the impact of the current pandemic on income and poverty to inform the targeting of resources to those most affected and assess the success of current efforts. We construct new measures of the income distribution and poverty with a lag of only a few weeks using high frequency data from the Basic Monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), which collects income information for a large, representative sample of U.S. families. Because the family income data for this project are rarely used, we validate this timely measure of income by comparing historical estimates that rely on these data to estimates from data on income and consumption that have been used much more broadly. Our results indicate that at the start of the pandemic, government policy effectively countered its effects on incomes, leading poverty to fall and low percentiles of income to rise across a range of demographic groups and geographies. Simulations that rely on the detailed CPS data and that closely match total government payments made show that the entire decline in poverty that we find can be accounted for by the rise in government assistance, including unemployment insurance benefits and the Economic Impact Payments. Our simulations further indicate that of those losing employment the vast majority received unemployment insurance, though this was less true early on in the pandemic and receipt was uneven across the states, with some states not reaching a large share of their out of work residents." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Jobs' amenability to working from home: Evidence from skills surveys for 53 countries (2020)
Zitatform
Hatayama, Maho, Mariana Viollaz & Hernan Winkler (2020): Jobs' amenability to working from home: Evidence from skills surveys for 53 countries. In: Covid economics H. 19, S. 211-240.
Abstract
"The spread of COVID-19 and implementation of “social distancing” policies around the world have raised the question of how many jobs can be done at home. This paper uses skills surveys from 53 countries at varying levels of economic development to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home. The paper considers jobs’ characteristics and uses internet access at home as an important determinant of working from home. The findings indicate that the amenability of jobs to working from home increases with the level of economic development of the country. This is driven by jobs in poor countries being more intensive in physical/manual tasks, using less information and communications technology, and having poorer internet connectivity at home. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to working from home than the average worker. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. The paper finds that the crisis may exacerbate inequities between and within countries. It also finds that occupations explain less than half of the variability in the working-from-home indexes within countries, which highlights the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to working from home." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Which Jobs Are Done from Home? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey (2020)
Zitatform
Hensvik, Lena, Thomas Le Barbanchon & Roland Rathelot (2020): Which Jobs Are Done from Home? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey. (IZA discussion paper 13138), Bonn, 17 S.
Abstract
"Which jobs are more likely to be affected by mobility restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic? This paper uses American Time Use Survey data to measure the share of the work hours that are spent at home for different job categories. We compute and provide home-working shares by occupation (US census classification, SOC and international ISCO classification), and by industry (US census classification, NAICS and international ISIC classification)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to contain the spread of Covid-19 (2020)
Zitatform
Inoue, Hiroyasu & Yasuyuki Todo (2020): The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains. The case of a mega-city lockdown to contain the spread of Covid-19. In: Covid economics H. 2, S. 43-59.
Abstract
"This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of Covid-19. The negative effect of the lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of a shortage of supply and demand. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo when production activities that are not essential to citizens’ survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that when Tokyo is locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan, or 5.3% of its annual GDP. Although the shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in a reduction in the daily production in Japan of 86% in a month." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics (2020)
Zitatform
Jordà, Òscar, Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor (2020): Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2020-09), San Francisco, Calif., 14 S. DOI:10.24148/wp2020-09
Abstract
"How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Viral Shocks to the World Economy (2020)
Zitatform
Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Malte Rieth (2020): Viral Shocks to the World Economy. (DIW-Diskussionspapiere 1861), Berlin, 36 S.
Abstract
"We construct a news-based viral disease index and study the dynamic impact of epidemics on the world economy, using structural vector autoregressions. Epidemic shocks have persistently negative effects, both directly and indirectly, on affected countries and on world output. The shocks lead to a significant fall in global trade, employment, and consumer prices for three quarters, and the losses are permanent. In contrast, retail sales increase. Country studies suggest that the direct effects are four times larger than the indirect effects and that demand-side dominate supply-side contractions. Overall, the findings indicate that expansionary macroeconomic policy is an appropriate crisis response." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Die Weltwirtschaft im Covid-19-Stress (2020)
Kolev, Galina;Zitatform
Kolev, Galina (2020): Die Weltwirtschaft im Covid-19-Stress. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,51), Köln, 3 S.
Abstract
"Die COVID-19-Pandemie hat die Welt dramatisch verändert. Der Internationale Währungsfonds prognostiziert mit 3 Prozent den stärksten Rückgang der weltwirtschaftlichen Leistung in der Nachkriegsgeschichte. Das Tempo und das Ausmaß der Erholung im Jahr 2021 sind stark davon abhängig, welche wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen die Länder weltweit ergreifen und wann die Pandemie nachlässt. Bei Schwierigkeiten von globalem Charakter ist multilaterale Koordinierung gefragt. Die deutsche Exportwirtschaft wird in 2020 starke Einbußen verbuchen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Die Abhängigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft von internationalen Lieferketten (2020)
Kolev, Galina; Obst, Thomas;Zitatform
Kolev, Galina & Thomas Obst (2020): Die Abhängigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft von internationalen Lieferketten. (IW-Report / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,16), Köln, 23 S.
Abstract
"Im Jahr 2019 importierten deutsche Unternehmen Vorprodukte im Wert von 606 Milliarden Euro, was gut 55 Prozent der gesamten Warenimporte Deutschlands ausmachte. Zwei Drittel der importierten Vorprodukte kamen aus anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten, weitere 5,3 Prozent bzw. 5,0 Prozent aus den USA und China. Dabei entfallen jeweils knapp 16 Prozent der importierten Vorprodukte auf Teile und Zubehör von Investitionsgütern bzw. von Transportmitteln, weitere 16 Prozent beziehen sich auf primäre und verarbeitete Kraft- und Schmierstoffe. Auf Wertschöpfungsbasis machten importierte Vorleistungen im Jahr 2015 24,5 Prozent der in der inländischen Endnachfrage und 21,0 Prozent der in den deutschen Exporten enthaltenen Wertschöpfung aus. Der ausländische Anteil an der im Inland nachgefragten oder von deutschen Unternehmen exportierten Wertschöpfung ist besonders hoch im Bergbau (84,6 Prozent) und in der Land- und Forstwirtschaft (45,2 Prozent). Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe ist er mit 35,1 Prozent ebenfalls weit überdurchschnittlich. Hier stecken hinter der inländischen Endnachfrage und den deutschen Exporten im Wert von 1000 Euro 38 Euro Wertschöpfung aus China, 30 Euro aus den USA und 18 Euro aus dem Vereinigten Königreich. Weitere 148 Euro kommen aus anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten. Besonders abhängig von importierten Vorleistungen sind die Textilindustrie (63,4 Prozent ausländische Wertschöpfung) und die Elektronik (45,2 Prozent). In der chemischen und pharmazeutischen Industrie kommen 39,3 Prozent der Wertschöpfung aus dem Ausland, in der Automobilindustrie und dem Maschinenbau sind es 29,0 bzw. 28,2 Prozent. Die Corona-Krise hat die Fragilität internationaler Lieferketten offenbart. Industrien sind zunehmend asymmetrisch miteinander vernetzt. Wertschöpfungsketten wurden internationalisiert, um Größenvorteile zu erreichen. Outsourcing, Offshoring und schlanke Produktionslinien, verbunden mit geringen Lagerbeständen, haben die deutsche Wirtschaft anfällig für Unterbrechungen in den Lieferketten und Versorgungsengpässe gemacht. Es handelt sich also um einen Trade-off zwischen niedrigeren Preisen der Vorprodukte und dem erhöhten Risiko, abhängig von den weltweiten Lieferketten zu sein. Eine strukturelle Änderung der Wertschöpfungsketten liegt zuerst in der Hand der Unternehmen, die den Trade-off neu bewerten müssen und negative Externalitäten stärker einbeziehen sollten. Eine Maßnahme könnte die Diversifizierung der Lieferketten betreffen, um die Resilienz gegenüber Produktionsausfällen bei Vorprodukten zu erhöhen. Wirtschaftspolitisch wären staatliche Eingriffe ins Marktgeschehen nur in Bereichen zu prüfen, die für die Grundversorgung der Bevölkerung etwa mit Grundnahrungsmitteln oder Medizinprodukten von höchster Relevanz sind. Ein Gebot der Stunde ist es jedoch, die bereits gestörten Lieferketten nicht durch zusätzliche Handelskonflikte weiter zu beeinträchtigen. Eine krisenmotivierte Restrukturierung von internationalen Wertschöpfungsketten birgt die Gefahr, die Errungenschaften der letzten Jahre rückgängig zu machen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Kurzarbeit in Europa: Die Rettung in der aktuellen Corona-Krise? (2020)
Zitatform
Konle-Seidl, Regina (2020): Kurzarbeit in Europa: Die Rettung in der aktuellen Corona-Krise? (IAB-Forschungsbericht 04/2020 (de)), Nürnberg, 18 S.
Abstract
"In der aktuellen Corona-Krise wird in mehr Ländern als jemals zuvor Kurzarbeit als arbeitsmarktpolitisches Instrument eingesetzt, um Beschäftigung zu sichern und die sozialen Kosten der Krise zu begrenzen. Trotz erheblicher Unterschiede in der institutionellen Ausgestaltung und Logik von Kurzarbeitsregelungen hat der rasche Einsatz und eine hohe Inanspruchnahme von Kurzarbeitergeld eine hohe Priorität in allen europäischen Ländern. Der Beitrag beschreibt die ökonomische Rationalität von Kurzarbeit und ordnet die europäischen Kurzarbeitsprogramme in verschiedene Cluster ein. Er beschreibt wesentliche Veränderungen in der Ausgestaltung seit März 2020 und diskutiert mögliche Wirkungen vor dem Hintergrund empirischer Erkenntnisse aus früheren Krisenzeiten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Scarring body and mind: The long-term belief-scarring effects of Covid-19 (2020)
Kozlowski, Julian; Venkateswaran, Venky; Veldkamp, Laura;Zitatform
Kozlowski, Julian, Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran (2020): Scarring body and mind: The long-term belief-scarring effects of Covid-19. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 1-26.
Abstract
"The largest economic cost of the Covid-19 pandemic could arise if it changed behaviour long after the immediate health crisis is resolved. A common explanation for such a longlived effect is the scarring of beliefs. We show how to quantify the extent of such belief changes and determine their impact on future economic outcomes. We find that the longrun effect of the Covid crisis depends crucially on whether bankruptcies and changes in habit make existing capital obsolete. A policy that avoided most permanent separation of workers from capital could generate a much larger benefit than originally thought, that could easily be 180% of annual GDP, in present value." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Corona-Krise und (Langzeit-)Arbeitslosigkeit: Ein neuer New Deal – Öffentliche Beschäftigungspolitik und die Stärkung sozialer Infrastrukturen (2020)
Krenn, Manfred;Zitatform
Krenn, Manfred (2020): Corona-Krise und (Langzeit-)Arbeitslosigkeit: Ein neuer New Deal – Öffentliche Beschäftigungspolitik und die Stärkung sozialer Infrastrukturen. In: WISO, Jg. 43, H. 4, S. 13-29.
Abstract
"Der Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit den aktuellen Herausforderungen von (Langzeit-)Arbeitslosigkeit und neuen Wegen ihrer Bewältigung. Die Corona-Krise hat bestehende Problemlagen dramatisch verschärft, die vorher schon hohe Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit wird sich, so die Prognosen, weiter erhöhen. Der Beitrag argumentiert, dass reine Arbeitsmarktpolitik dieses Problem aufgrund eines schon länger existierenden strukturellen Mangels an verfügbaren Arbeitsplätzen nicht lösen kann. In der gegenwärtigen Arbeitsmarktkrise müssen, so die Schlussfolgerung, neue Wege beschritten werden. Mit einem neuen New Deal, der eine mutige öffentliche Beschäftigungspolitik mit Formen von Beschäftigungsgarantien kombiniert, können neue Arbeitsplätze geschaffen und gleichzeitig soziale Infrastrukturen stabilisiert werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © ISW-Linz)
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Literaturhinweis
Macroeconomic dynamics and reallocation in an epidemic (2020)
Zitatform
Krueger, Dirk, Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie (2020): Macroeconomic dynamics and reallocation in an epidemic. In: Covid Economics H. 5, S. 21-55.
Abstract
"In this paper we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behaviour across sectors of the economy can act as a potent mitigation mechanism during an epidemic or when the economy is re-opened after a temporary lockdown. Extending the theoretical framework proposed by Eichenbaum-Rebelo-Trabandt (2020), we distinguish goods by the degree to which they can be consumed at home rather than in a social (and thus possibly contagious) context. We demonstrate that, within the model the "Swedish solution" of letting the epidemic play out without government intervention and allowing agents to shift their sectoral behavior on their own can lead to a substantial mitigation of the economic and human costs of the Covid-19 crisis, avoiding more than 80% of the decline in output and of number of deaths within one year, compared to a model in which sectors are assumed to be homogeneous. For different parameter configurations that capture the additional social distancing and hygiene activities individuals might engage in voluntarily, we show that infections may decline entirely on their own, simply due to the individually rational reallocation of economic activity: the curve not only just flattens, it gets reversed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wie die Corona-Krise Kinderarmut verschärft (2020)
Lichtenberger, Hanna; Ranftler, Judith;Zitatform
Lichtenberger, Hanna & Judith Ranftler (2020): Wie die Corona-Krise Kinderarmut verschärft. In: WISO, Jg. 43, H. 4, S. 65-80.
Abstract
"Die Corona-Krise ist keine Gesundheitskrise, sie ist eine multiple Krise mit Auswirkungen auf alle Lebensbereiche. So sind so viele Menschen wie noch nie in Österreich arbeitslos oder erleben Einkommensverluste und soziale Unsicherheit. Die multiple Krise wirkt aber nicht nur auf Erwachsene, sondern auch auf Kinder und Jugendliche. Schon die erste Welle der Covid-19-Infektionen im Frühjahr 2020 hat gezeigt, dass Kinder und Jugendliche mit massiven ökonomischen, aber auch psychosozialen Folgen konfrontiert sind. Weltweit könnten bis zu 86 Millionen zusätzliche Kinder Ende 2020 in Armut leben. Auch in Österreich wiegen die negativen Effekte auf armutsbetroffene Kinder besonders schwer, wie im folgenden Beitrag mit ersten empirischen Erhebungen skizziert wird. Dabei werden nicht nur finanzielle, sondern auch psychosoziale und gesundheitliche Dimensionen von Kinderarmut thematisiert. Der Beitrag schließt mit einem Verweis auf das lückenhaft gewordene Sozialsystem ab, in dem Armut „Zufallsprodukt“ ist, aber in Zeiten der gegenwärtigen Pandemie noch weiter verstärkt wird." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © ISW-Linz)
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Literaturhinweis
The Coming Coronavirus Crisis: What Can We Learn? (2020)
Zitatform
Lucchese, Matteo & Mario Pianta (2020): The Coming Coronavirus Crisis: What Can We Learn? In: Intereconomics, Jg. 55, H. 2, S. 98-104. DOI:10.1007/s10272-020-0878-0
Abstract
"The coronavirus pandemic is bringing with it the prospect of severe financial and economic crises. The article investigates its economic consequences in terms of financial instability, economic recession, lower incomes and policy challenges at the national and European levels. What are some of the lessons that can be learned? This article argues that health is a global public good. Public health and welfare systems are crucial alternatives to the market and universal public health is a key element of an egalitarian policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Covid-19 and the macroeconomic effects of costly disasters (2020)
Zitatform
Ludvigson, Sydney C., Sai Ma & Serena Ng (2020): Covid-19 and the macroeconomic effects of costly disasters. In: Covid economics H. 9, S. 1-21.
Abstract
"The outbreak of Covid-19 has significantly disrupted the economy. This paper attempts to quantify the macroeconomic impact of costly and deadly disasters in recent US history, and to translate these estimates into an analysis of the likely impact of Covid-19. A costly disaster series is constructed over the sample 1980:1-2019:12 and the dynamic impact of a one standard deviation (σ) shock on economic activity and on uncertainty is studied using a VAR. However, while past natural disasters are local in nature and come and go quickly, Covid-19 is a global, multi-period event. We therefore study the dynamic responses to a sequence of large shocks. Our baseline calibration represents Covid-19 as a 3-month, 60σ shock. Even in this conservative case, the shock is forecast to lead to a cumulative loss in industrial production of 12.75% and in service sector employment of nearly 17% or 24 million jobs over a period of ten months. For each month that a shock of the same magnitude is prolonged from the base case, cumulative employment losses will increase by another 6%, and macro uncertainty persist for another month." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Covid-19 and jobs: Monitoring the US impact on people and places: A clearer picture is emerging of the sectors, regions, and demographic groups at risk across the United States (2020)
Lund, Susan; Ellingrud, Kweilin; Hancock, Bryan; Manyika, James;Zitatform
Lund, Susan, Kweilin Ellingrud, Bryan Hancock & James Manyika (2020): Covid-19 and jobs: Monitoring the US impact on people and places. A clearer picture is emerging of the sectors, regions, and demographic groups at risk across the United States. Washington, DC, 10 S.
Abstract
"The spread of coronavirus is leaving a wide swath of economic damage in its wake. Our initial analysis, conducted at the beginning of April, examined the impact at the state, national, and occupational level. We estimated that in the shutdown phase alone, up to 53 million US jobs were vulnerable—a term we use to encompass permanent layoffs, temporary furloughs, or reductions in hours and pay. Since then, demand shocks have been reverberating through all sectors. Now that pandemic-related unemployment claims have been pouring in for several weeks, the losses associated with the initial shutdown are cascading into knock-on effects. While leisure and hospitality accounted for most of the earliest layoffs and furloughs, the share from industries such as retail trade, manufacturing, nonessential healthcare, and professional services has been growing. We estimate that up to 57 million US jobs are now vulnerable, including more and more white-collar positions.. By way of context, some 59 million jobs are at risk in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland, which have a considerably larger population. We find significant overlap between the workers who are vulnerable in the current downturn and those who hold jobs susceptible to automation in the future. In addition to the effects of technology, the crisis itself may create lasting changes in consumer behavior and health protocols. To put vulnerable workers on more promising and sustainable paths, the US response should incorporate a longer-term view about the resulting occupational shifts and the development of skills." (author's abstract) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Global economic and financial effects of 21st century pandemics and epidemics (2020)
Ma, Chang; Zhou, Sili; Rogers, John;Zitatform
Ma, Chang, John Rogers & Sili Zhou (2020): Global economic and financial effects of 21st century pandemics and epidemics. In: Covid economics H. 5, S. 56-74.
Abstract
"We provide perspective on the possible global economic and financial effects from COVID-19 by examining the handful of similar major health crises in the 21st century. We estimate the effects of these disease shock episodes on GDP growth, fiscal policy, expectations, financial markets, and corporate activity. Simple time-series models of GDP growth indicate that real GDP is 2.6% lower on average across 210 countries in the year of the official declaration of the outbreak and is still 3% below its pre-shock level five years later. The negative effect on GDP is felt less in countries with more aggressive first-year responses in government spending. Consensus forecast data suggests a pessimistic view on real GDP initially that lasts for two months, an effect that is larger for emerging market economies. Stock market responses indicate an immediate negative reaction. Finally, using firm-level data, we find a fall in corporate profitability and employment, and an increase in debt, the last of which is further reflected in higher sovereign CDS spreads." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Nature of work and distribution of risk: Evidence from occupational sorting, skills, and tasks (2020)
Malkov, Egor;Zitatform
Malkov, Egor (2020): Nature of work and distribution of risk: Evidence from occupational sorting, skills, and tasks. In: Covid economics H. 34, S. 15-49.
Abstract
"How does the nature of work – teleworkability and contact intensity – shape the distribution of health, labor income, and unemployment risks, created by the COVID-19 pandemic? To answer this question, we consider two contexts. First, we show that the existing spousal natureof- work-based occupational sorting in the United States matters for the distribution of these risks. In particular, we show that it mitigates the risk of catching COVID-19 through intra-household contagion relative to the case of zero sorting. Furthermore, we show that it creates a larger fraction of couples, who are excessively exposed to labor income and unemployment risks, relative to the case of zero sorting. Second, we document that teleworkable occupations require higher education and experience levels as well as greater cognitive, social, character, and computer skills relative to non-teleworkable occupations. This discrepancy affects labor income and unemployment risks by increasing the likelihood of skill mismatch for newly unemployed workers. Our results imply that the current economic downturn may have long-run effects on employment prospects and earnings of workers who had nonteleworkable or high-contact-intensity jobs at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. We discuss the relevant policy implications and associated policy constraints that follow from our findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Hilfsinstrumente gegen die Corona-Krise im Vergleich (2020)
Matthes, Jürgen; Demary, Markus;Zitatform
Matthes, Jürgen & Markus Demary (2020): Hilfsinstrumente gegen die Corona-Krise im Vergleich. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,33), Köln, 3 S.
Abstract
"Verschiedene europäische Hilfsinstrumente für besonders von der Corona-Krise betroffene Staaten werden aktuell diskutiert. In diesem Beitrag werden mehrere Anforderungskriterien aufgestellt und die Vorschläge daran gemessen. Das Instrument der Corona-Bonds schneidet dabei am besten ab, wenn die deutsche Politik die damit verbundene Vergemeinschaftung akzeptiert. Das sollte Deutschland tun, um mit den besonders betroffenen Staaten umfassende Solidarität zu üben und Europa zusammenzuhalten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Rückversicherungsvorschlag geht in die richtige Richtung (2020)
Matthes, Jürgen;Zitatform
Matthes, Jürgen (2020): Rückversicherungsvorschlag geht in die richtige Richtung. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,42), Köln, 3 S.
Abstract
"Die Europäische Kommission hat als Reaktion auf die Corona-Krise eine Rückversicherung für die nationalen Arbeitslosenversicherungen der Mitgliedstaaten vorgeschlagen. Dieser Vorstoß geht weitgehend in die richtige Richtung. Das vorgeschlagene Instrument setzt mit der Unterstützung von Kurzarbeit ökonomisch an einer richtigen Stelle an, ist auf die Krise bezogen, ermöglicht als Ultima Ratio auch Transfers und lässt die EU als Helfer sichtbar werden. Der Regulierungsvorschlag muss allerdings die Kriterien für die Inanspruchnahme klar definieren und vor allem explizit machen, dass SURE nur befristet ist." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios (2020)
McKibbin, Warwick; Fernando, Roshen;Zitatform
McKibbin, Warwick & Roshen Fernando (2020): The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19. Seven scenarios. In: Covid economics H. 10, S. 116-156.
Abstract
"The outbreak of Coronavirus named COVID-19 world has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain, which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios (2020)
McKibbin, Warwick; Fernando, Roshen;Zitatform
McKibbin, Warwick & Roshen Fernando (2020): The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19. Seven scenarios. (CAMA working paper series 2020,19), Canberra, 43 S.
Abstract
"The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
auch erschienen in: Covid economics 10 (2020), 116-156 -
Literaturhinweis
Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession (2020)
Michelsen, Claus ; Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Gebauer, Stefan; Rieth, Malte; Engerer, Hella;Zitatform
Michelsen, Claus, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer & Malte Rieth (2020): Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession. In: DIW-Wochenbericht, Jg. 87, H. 24, S. 408-418. DOI:10.18723/diw_wb:2020-24-2
Abstract
"Die Folgen der Corona-Pandemie hinterlassen tiefe Spuren in der Weltwirtschaft. Im ersten Quartal sank die weltweite Produktion im Zuge des globalen Lockdowns um 15,3 Prozent. Da die Eindämmungsmaßnahmen in vielen Ländern vor allem in das zweite Quartal fielen, dürfte der Einbruch im ersten Halbjahr insgesamt noch gewaltiger ausfallen. Aufgrund der vielerorts flächendeckenden Eindämmungsmaßnahmen und massiven Produktions- und Absatzeinschränkungen vom März bis zum Sommer dieses Jahres senkt das DIW Berlin seine Prognose für das Gesamtjahr drastisch von 2,5 Prozent auf –4,9 Prozent. Die erheblichen Produktionsausfälle und der massive Einbruch im Dienstleistungssektor werden voraussichtlich auch im nächsten Jahr nicht kompensiert werden können. Für das Jahr 2021 erwartet das DIW Berlin einen Anstieg der weltweiten Produktion von 5,5 Prozent. Risiken gehen vor allem von weiteren Infektionswellen aus. Auch handelspolitische Eskalationen sind weiterhin nicht auszuschließen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Corona-Pandemie schockiert die Weltwirtschaft: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Frühjahr 2020 (2020)
Michelsen, Claus ; Baldi, Guido; Rieth, Malte; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Gebauer, Stefan; Engerer, Hella;Zitatform
Michelsen, Claus, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer & Malte Rieth (2020): Corona-Pandemie schockiert die Weltwirtschaft: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Frühjahr 2020. In: DIW-Wochenbericht, Jg. 87, H. 12, S. 192-205. DOI:10.18723/diw_wb:2020-12-2
Abstract
"Die fortschreitende Corona-Epidemie schockiert die Weltwirtschaft. In den kommenden Monaten werden viele Länder voraussichtlich deutliche konjunkturelle Einbrüche erleiden. Absperrungen ganzer Regionen führen zu einem Ausfall der Produktion, zu einer Unterbrechung der Lieferketten und zu Konsumeinbußen. Die Weltwirtschaft dürfte in diesem Jahr nur noch um 2,5 Prozent wachsen, nachdem zuvor 3,7 Prozent prognostiziert worden waren. Im kommenden Jahr werden wohl 3,5 Prozent erreicht werden, wenn sich die Lage wieder normalisiert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Who can live without two months of income? (2020)
Midões, Catarina;Zitatform
Midões, Catarina (2020): Who can live without two months of income? In: Covid economics H. 18, S. 157-169.
Abstract
"Looking at 342 million residents in 21 EU countries, we estimate that 99 million individuals live in households which cannot cover for two months of the most basic expenses – food at home, utilities and rent/mortgage on their single main residence - only from their savings in bank accounts. Without privately earned income but with (pre-covid19) pension income and public transfers, 57 million have savings for less than 2 months. Government support in the form of employment protection schemes and beyond is thus fundamental to ensure livelihood during the covid19 shock, yet many individuals would remain vulnerable if ensured 50% of their gross privately earned income. We estimate mortgage and rent suspension can decrease in half the number of individuals at risk. We find there are stark differences between countries and that individuals born outside of the EU are particularly vulnerable. Those dependent on their income will be forced to resume work earlier and take higher health risks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Auswirkungen auf Wirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt und Soziales in Deutschland
- Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Maßnahmen
- Exit-Strategien zur Beendigung des Lockdowns
- Kurzarbeit - Regelungen und Inanspruchnahme während der Pandemie
- Homeoffice/mobiles Arbeiten
- Auswirkungen auf Betriebe
- Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Grundsicherung nach SGB II
- Einkommenseffekte
- Einzelne Berufe und Branchen
- Berufsausbildung/Lehrstellenmarkt
- Zukunftsszenarien: Wird die Wirtschaft nach Corona nachhaltiger?
- Soziale und gesundheitliche Aspekte
- Corona und Care
- Weiterbildung
- Konjunkturpaket zur Förderung der Wirtschaft
- Personengruppen
- Regionale Aspekte
- Internationale Arbeitsmärkte / Auswirkungen der Globalisierung
- Bundesländer