Lebenseinkommen – Entwicklung des Einkommens im Lebensverlauf
Das im Verlauf des Erwerbslebens erzielbare Einkommen ist oft ein Entscheidungskriterium bei der Frage "Studium oder Berufsausbildung". Lohnt sich ein Studium oder kann mit einer Berufsausbildung langfristig ein höheres Einkommen erzielt werden? Wie entwickelt sich das Lebenseinkommen im inter- und intragenerationalen Vergleich? Sind Unterschiede zwischen den Geschlechtern zu beobachten? Welchen Einfluss haben Phasen der Arbeitslosigkeit auf das Lebenseinkommen?
Die Infoplattform widmet sich den theoretischen Grundlagen und empirischen Studien zum Thema.
-
Literaturhinweis
Returns to skills around the world: evidence from PIAAC (2013)
Zitatform
Hanushek, Eric A., Guido Schwerdt, Simon Wiederhold & Ludger Wößmann (2013): Returns to skills around the world. Evidence from PIAAC. (IZA discussion paper 7850), Bonn, 47 S.
Abstract
"Existing estimates of the labor-market returns to human capital give a distorted picture of the role of skills across different economies. International comparisons of earnings analyses rely almost exclusively on school attainment measures of human capital, and evidence incorporating direct measures of cognitive skills is mostly restricted to early-career workers in the United States. Analysis of the new PIAAC survey of adult skills over the full lifecycle in 22 countries shows that the focus on early-career earnings leads to underestimating the lifetime returns to skills by about one quarter. On average, a one-standard-deviation increase in numeracy skills is associated with an 18 percent wage increase among prime-age workers. But this masks considerable heterogeneity across countries. Eight countries, including all Nordic countries, have returns between 12 and 15 percent, while six are above 21 percent with the largest return being 28 percent in the United States. Estimates are remarkably robust to different earnings and skill measures, additional controls, and various subgroups. Intriguingly, returns to skills are systematically lower in countries with higher union density, stricter employment protection, and larger public-sector shares." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Returns to skills around the world: evidence from PIAAC (2013)
Zitatform
Hanushek, Eric A., Guido Schwerdt, Simon Wiederhold & Ludger Wößmann (2013): Returns to skills around the world. Evidence from PIAAC. (NBER working paper 19762), Cambridge, Mass., 46 S. DOI:10.3386/w19762
Abstract
"Existing estimates of the labor-market returns to human capital give a distorted picture of the role of skills across different economies. International comparisons of earnings analyses rely almost exclusively on school attainment measures of human capital, and evidence incorporating direct measures of cognitive skills is mostly restricted to early-career workers in the United States. Analysis of the new PIAAC survey of adult skills over the full lifecycle in 22 countries shows that the focus on early-career earnings leads to underestimating the lifetime returns to skills by about one quarter. On average, a one-standard-deviation increase in numeracy skills is associated with an 18 percent wage increase among prime-age workers. But this masks considerable heterogeneity across countries. Eight countries, including all Nordic countries, have returns between 12 and 15 percent, while six are above 21 percent with the largest return being 28 percent in the United States. Estimates are remarkably robust to different earnings and skill measures, additional controls, and various subgroups. Intriguingly, returns to skills are systematically lower in countries with higher union density, stricter employment protection, and larger public-sector shares." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Education and lifetime income during demographic transition (2013)
Zitatform
Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Karsten Reuß (2013): Education and lifetime income during demographic transition. (ZEW discussion paper 2013-021), Mannheim, 32 S.
Abstract
"Die Studie untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen Bildungsinvestitionen in verschiedenen Lebensphasen und der Nachhaltigkeit des umlagefinanzierten Rentenversicherungssystems in Deutschland. Kosten und Nutzen von Bildungsinvestitionen werden dabei mit Transferzahlungen verglichen, die direkt zur Reduktion von Ungleichheiten im Lebenseinkommen, insbesondere während des Rentenbezugs, beitragen. Die Studie vergleicht erstmals die Wirksamkeit von Bildungsinvestitionen für die Entwicklung der Lebenseinkommen unter Berücksichtigung des demografischen Wandels. Dieser Vergleich wird für die Kohorten der in den Jahren 1940 bis 2044 Geborenen für die Zeitspanne von 2010 bis 2080 durchgeführt. Die Analyse basiert auf einem Modell der altersabhängigen Humankapitalbildung, das durch dynamische Komplementaritäten im Lebenszyklus gekennzeichnet ist. Transferzahlungen werden mit kompensierenden Bildungsinvestitionen für unterschiedliche Altersgruppen verglichen, die beide das Potenzial haben, die Ungleichheit des Lebenseinkommens zu reduzieren. Dabei bietet unsere Analyse erstmals die Möglichkeit, auch die langfristigen Effekte von Bildungsinvestitionen abzuschätzen, die bereits in der frühen Kindheit getätigt werden. Die nachträgliche Korrektur der Lebenseinkommen durch Transferzahlungen während der Phase des Rentenbezugs und die vorsorgenden Bildungsinvestitionen haben jeweils spezifische Kosten und Nutzen für Kinder, Erwerbstätige und Rentner. Falls es das Ziel der Politik ist, die Ungleichheit des Lebenseinkommens innerhalb einer Generation zu verringern, sind aus Kosten-Nutzen-Überlegungen kompensierende Bildungsinvestitionen bis zum Alter von 17 Jahren, im Alter danach finanzielle Transferleistungen die bessere Wahl. Bildungsinvestitionen im Vorschulalter lassen aufgrund des Fähigkeitenmultiplikators der Kindheit die größten Erträge, gemessen am Lebenseinkommen, erwarten. Prognosen zeigen, dass in den nächsten Jahrzehnten die Bevölkerung in Deutschland weiter altern wird. In Folge dessen wird der Anteil der Rentner an der Erwerbsbevölkerung im Erwartungswert von 30 Prozent heute auf 50 Prozent steigen. Zukünftige Rentensteigerungen werden trotz steigender Beiträge gering oder sogar negativ sein. Nach unseren Analysen könnten nach von im Jahre 2011 eingeführten steuerfinanzierten zusätzlichen Bildungsinvestitionen im Vorschulalter bereits die Geburtsjahrgänge ab 1976 in Form einer Zunahme ihres Lebenseinkommens profitieren. Bildungsinvestitionen im Vorschulalter können demnach bei gleichbleibendem Rentenrecht die ökonomischen Konsequenzen des demografischen Übergangs abmildern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
-
Literaturhinweis
Permanent income and the black-white test score gap (2013)
Zitatform
Rothstein, Jesse & Nathan Wozny (2013): Permanent income and the black-white test score gap. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 48, H. 3, S. 509-544.
Abstract
"Analysts often examine the black-white test score gap conditional on current family income. We describe a method for identifying the gap conditional on the family's permanent income. Current income explains only about half as much of the black-white test gap as does permanent income, and the gap among families with the same permanent income is only 0.2 to 0.3 standard deviations in two commonly used samples. When we add permanent income to the controls used by Fryer and Levitt (2006), the unexplained gap in third grade shrinks below 0.15 SDs, less than half of what is found with their controls." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
An international comparison of lifetime inequality: how continental Europe resembles North America (2012)
Zitatform
Bowlus, Audra J. & Jean-Marc Robin (2012): An international comparison of lifetime inequality. How continental Europe resembles North America. In: Journal of the European Economic Association, Jg. 10, H. 6, S. 1236-1262. DOI:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01088.x
Abstract
"We compare earnings inequality and mobility across the United States, Canada, France, Germany and the United Kingdom during the late 1990s. A flexible model of earnings dynamics that isolates positional mobility within a stable earnings distribution is estimated. Earnings trajectories are then simulated, and lifetime annuity value distributions are constructed. Earnings mobility and employment risk are found to be positively correlated with base-year inequality. Taken together they produce more equalization in countries with high cross-section inequality such that the countries in our sample have more similar lifetime inequality levels than cross-section measures suggest." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Risk and returns to education (2012)
Zitatform
Brown, Jeffrey, Chicun Fang & Francisco Gomes (2012): Risk and returns to education. (NBER working paper 18300), Cambridge, Mass., 47 S. DOI:10.3386/w18300
Abstract
"We analyze the returns to education in a life-cycle framework that incorporates risk preferences, earnings volatility (including unemployment), and a progressive income tax and social insurance system. We show that such a framework significantly reduces the measured gains from education relative to simple present-value calculations, although the gains remain significant. For example, for a range of preference parameters, we find that individuals should be willing to pay 300 to 500 (200 to 250) thousand dollars to obtain a college (high school) degree in order to benefit from the 32 to 42 percent (20 to 38 percent) increase in annual certainty-equivalent consumption. We also explore how the measured value of education varies with preference parameters, by gender, and across time. In contrast to findings in the education wage-premia literature, which focuses on present values and which we replicate in our data, our model indicates that the gains from college education were flat in the 1980s and actually decreased significantly in 1991-2007 period. On the other hand, the gains to a high school education have increased quite dramatically over time. We also show that both high school and college education help to decrease the gender gap in life-time earnings, contrary again to the conclusion from wage premia calculations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
The raising of the school leaving age: returns in later life (2012)
Zitatform
Buscha, Franz & Matt Dickson (2012): The raising of the school leaving age. Returns in later life. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 117, H. 2, S. 389-393. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2012.06.018
Abstract
"Using the recently released UK Household Longitudinal Study we examine whether the raising of the school leaving age in 1972 had a permanent impact on earnings for individuals in their early 50s." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Intergenerational income mobility revisited: estimation with an income dynamic model with heterogeneous age profile (2012)
Chau, Tak Wai;Zitatform
Chau, Tak Wai (2012): Intergenerational income mobility revisited. Estimation with an income dynamic model with heterogeneous age profile. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 117, H. 3, S. 770-773. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2012.08.039
Abstract
"The traditional method of estimating intergenerational income elasticity by using the average income over a few years for each generation is subject to attenuation bias due to measurement error and lifecycle bias. In this paper, I estimate the intergenerational elasticity using an income dynamic model with intergenerational linkages. The model can explicitly account for sources of biases such as heterogeneous age profile and transitory shocks of changing variance over the lifecycle. The model can be identified through the covariance structure of earnings within individuals and across generations. Based on the models, I simulate the lifetime income of both generations and calculate the implied intergenerational elasticity. Using PSID data from the United States and GSOEP data from Germany, the estimated intergenerational elasticity of fathers and sons is substantially higher than those in the literature. The intergenerational elasticity is as high as 0.66 for the US and 0.48 for Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Income mobility - curse or blessing? Mobility in social security earnings: data on West-German men since 1950 (2012)
Fachinger, Uwe; Himmelreicher, Ralf K.;Zitatform
Fachinger, Uwe & Ralf K. Himmelreicher (2012): Income mobility - curse or blessing? Mobility in social security earnings. Data on West-German men since 1950. In: Schmollers Jahrbuch, Jg. 132, H. 2, S. 175-203.
Abstract
"Descriptions and analyses of citizens' or households' income have a long tradition in economics. A large body of research has recognized that levels of income and how income is distributed are important contributors to the wealth of nations. Within the broader context of income and its distribution, there has also been a considerable amount of research on the process underlying income distribution that is, income mobility. The relevance of income mobility is manifold. First of all, mobility is an indicator for an open society providing economic opportunities for everyone. As people are normally risk averse, they are interested in a steady income stream. This can be called the security aspect. Another facet of income mobility is the incentive aspect. Upward mobility provides incentives for successful economic activity as it is possible to move up the income ladder. If upward mobility offers the 'carrot', downward mobility epitomizes the 'stick' of economic activity. Downward mobility increases insecurity and insecurity is harmful to well-being. We use data covering the whole working lives of workers / employees to shed light on income mobility. This will result in more information about the adequacy of some assumptions of the life-cycle theory concerning the development of income over time - and especially on the inverse U-shape assumption of income profiles." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
The effect of early cognitive ability on earnings over the life-cycle (2012)
Zitatform
Falch, Torberg & Sofia Sandgren Massih (2012): The effect of early cognitive ability on earnings over the life-cycle. In: Labour, Jg. 26, H. 3, S. 287-312. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9914.2012.00553.x
Abstract
"This paper utilizes information on cognitive ability at age 10 and earnings information from age 20 to 65 to estimate the return to ability over the life-cycle. Cognitive ability measured at an early age is not influenced by the individual's choices of schooling. We find that most of the unconditional return to early cognitive ability goes through educational choice. The conditional return is increasing for low levels of experience and non-increasing for experience above about 15-25 years. The return is similar for men and women, and highest for individuals with academic education. Only a small part of the return can be explained by higher probability of having a supervisory position." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Intergenerational earnings mobility revisited: estimates based on lifetime earnings (2012)
Zitatform
Nilsen, Oivind Anti, Kjell Vaage, Arild Aakvik & Karl Jacobson (2012): Intergenerational earnings mobility revisited. Estimates based on lifetime earnings. In: The Scandinavian journal of economics, Jg. 114, H. 1, S. 1-23. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2011.01672.x
Abstract
"Using Norwegian intergenerational data, which include a substantial part of the life-cycle earnings for children and almost the entire life-cycle earnings for their fathers, we present new estimates of intergenerational mobility. Extending the length of fathers' earnings window from 5 to 25 years increases estimated elasticities. Increasing the age at which fathers' earnings are observed has the opposite effect. Biases in the estimated elasticities are related to both transitory earnings variation and life-cycle measurement error; the former appear to be more important than the latter. Estimation bias stemming from persistence in transitory innovations plays only a minor role. Our findings indicate that intergenerational earnings mobility in Norway might have been strongly overstated in many earlier studies with shorter earnings histories. Some of our new estimates are twice as large as earlier estimates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Armut, Reichtum und Humankapital: zu den Beziehungen zwischen Bildung, Lebenseinkommen, Besteuerung und staatlicher Umverteilung (2012)
Petersen, Hand-Georg;Zitatform
Petersen, Hand-Georg (2012): Armut, Reichtum und Humankapital. Zu den Beziehungen zwischen Bildung, Lebenseinkommen, Besteuerung und staatlicher Umverteilung. In: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Jg. 63, H. 2, S. 236-264.
Abstract
"Sozial- und Bildungspolitik müssen die Bereitschaft für lebenslanges Lernen fördern, um die persönliche Flexibilität und Reintegrationsfähigkeit in die Leistungsgesellschaft zu sichern. Daher muss der tradierte Wohlfahrtsstaat durch Workfare-Elemente ergänzt werden (vgl. Koch, S., Stefan, G. und Walwei, U. 2005) welche über ein effizientes und integriertes Steuer-Transfer-System umgesetzt werden müssen (vgl. Petersen, H.-G. u. Rose, M. 2004). Primäre, sekundäre, tertiäre und duale berufliche Bildung müssen für möglichst viele Bürgerinnen und Bürger ein Humankapital generieren, das zur Erzielung eines befriedigenden Lebenseinkommens befähigt. Dann kann sich zukünftig die Sozialpolitik auf diejenigen Menschen konzentrieren, die zu einer selbstverantwortlichen Lebensführung nur zum Teil oder auch gar nicht in der Lage sind. Die Beziehungen zwischen Bildung, Humankapital, Besteuerung und Transferzahlungen werden in den folgenden Unterkapiteln beschrieben und verdeutlichen die Umverteilungswirkungen, welche bei ineffizientem Systemdesign negative Anreizwirkungen setzen und hohe Wohlfahrtsverluste verursachen können." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)
-
Literaturhinweis
The career costs of children (2011)
Zitatform
Adda, Jerome, Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens (2011): The career costs of children. (IZA discussion paper 6201), Bonn, 65 S.
Abstract
"This paper analyzes the life-cycle career costs associated with child rearing and decomposes their effects into unearned wages (as women drop out of the labor market), loss of human capital, and selection into more child-friendly occupations. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of fertility, occupational choice, and labor supply using detailed survey and administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions. We use this model to analyze both the male-female wage gap as it evolves from labor market entry onward and the effect of pro-fertility policies. We show that a substantial portion of the gender wage gap is explainable by realized and expected fertility and that the long-run effect of policies encouraging fertility are considerably lower than the short-run effects typically estimated in the literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Flexicurity, wage dynamics and inequality over the life-cycle (2011)
Zitatform
Bingley, Paul, Lorenzo Cappellari & Niels Westergaard-Nielsen (2011): Flexicurity, wage dynamics and inequality over the life-cycle. (CESifo working paper 3561), München, 41 S.
Abstract
"We investigate the relationship between life-cycle wages and flexicurity in Denmark. We separate permanent from transitory wages and characterise flexicurity using membership of unemployment insurance funds. We find that flexicurity is associated with lower wage growth heterogeneity over the life-cycle and greater wage instability, changing the nature of wage inequality from permanent to transitory. While we are in general unable to formally test for moral hazard against adverse selection into unemployment insurance membership, robustness checks suggest that moral hazard is the relevant interpretation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Lifetime earnings inequality in Germany (2011)
Bönke, Timm; Lüthen, Holger; Corneo, Giacomo;Zitatform
Bönke, Timm, Giacomo Corneo & Holger Lüthen (2011): Lifetime earnings inequality in Germany. (DIW-Diskussionspapiere 1160), Berlin, 44 S.
Abstract
"This paper documents the magnitude, pattern, and evolution of lifetime earnings inequality in Germany. Based on a large sample of earning biographies from social security records, we show that the intra-generational distribution of lifetime earnings of male workers has a Gini coefficient around .2 for cohorts born in the late 1930s and early 1940s; this amounts to about 2/3 of the value of the Gini coefficient of annual earnings. Within cohorts, mobility in the distribution of yearly earnings is substantial at the beginning of the lifecycle, decreases afterwards and virtually vanishes after age forty. Earnings data for thirty-one cohorts reveals striking evidence of a secular rise of intra-generational inequality in lifetime earnings: West-German men born in the early 1960s are likely to experience about 80 % more lifetime inequality than their fathers. In contrast, both short-term and long-term intra-generational mobility have been rather stable. Longer unemployment spells of workers at the bottom of the distribution of younger cohorts contribute to explain 30 to 40 % of the overall increase in lifetime earnings inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Recessions and the cost of job loss (2011)
Zitatform
Davis, Steven J. & Till von Wachter (2011): Recessions and the cost of job loss. (NBER working paper 17638), Cambridge, Mass., 70 S. DOI:10.3386/w17638
Abstract
"We develop new evidence on the cumulative earnings losses associated with job displacement, drawing on longitudinal Social Security records for U.S. workers from 1974 to 2008. In present value terms, men lose an average of 1.4 years of pre-displacement earnings if displaced in mass-layoff events that occur when the national unemployment rate is below 6 percent. They lose a staggering 2.8 years of pre-displacement earnings if displaced when the unemployment rate exceeds 8 percent. These results reflect discounting at a 5% annual rate over 20 years after displacement. We also document large cyclical movements in the incidence of job loss and job displacement and present evidence on how worker anxieties about job loss, wage cuts and job opportunities respond to contemporaneous economic conditions. Finally, we confront leading models of unemployment fluctuations with evidence on the present value earnings losses associated with job displacement. The model of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) extended to include search on the job generates present value losses only one-fourth as large as observed losses. Moreover, present value losses in the model vary little with aggregate conditions at the time of displacement, unlike the pattern in the data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Redistribution in Switzerland: social cohesion or simple smoothing of lifetime incomes? (2011)
Engler, Monika;Zitatform
Engler, Monika (2011): Redistribution in Switzerland. Social cohesion or simple smoothing of lifetime incomes? In: Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik, Jg. 147, H. 2, S. 107-155.
Abstract
"Using the example of Switzerland, this paper examines the extent to which the state and the social security institutions change the income distribution. Two sets of questions are examined: (1) Who benefits from the public services, and who bears the public costs? (2) To what extent does an annual redistribution involve redistribution (a) across households with different lifetime income, and (b) across different phases of life within the same households? Budget incidence analyses and pseudo panel procedures allow to compare annual and lifetime household incomes that arise before and after transfers. The results suggest that public interventions induce substantial redistribution, which is due primarily, however, to income-smoothing transfers within households and not to redistribution across households." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
General education, vocational education, and labor-market outcomes over the life-cycle (2011)
Zitatform
Hanushek, Eric A., Ludger Wößmann & Lei Zhang (2011): General education, vocational education, and labor-market outcomes over the life-cycle. (CESifo working paper 3614), München, 51 S.
Abstract
"Policy debates about the balance of vocational and general education programs focus on the school-to-work transition. But with rapid technological change, gains in youth employment from vocational education may be offset by less adaptability and thus diminished employment later in life. To test our main hypothesis that any relative labor-market advantage of vocational education decreases with age, we employ a difference-in-differences approach that compares employment rates across different ages for people with general and vocational education. Using micro data for 18 countries from the International Adult Literacy Survey, we find strong support for the existence of such a trade-off, which is most pronounced in countries emphasizing apprenticeship programs. Results are robust to accounting for ability patterns and to propensity-score matching." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Sources of lifetime inequality (2011)
Huggett, Mark; Yaron, Amir; Ventura, Gustavo;Zitatform
Huggett, Mark, Gustavo Ventura & Amir Yaron (2011): Sources of lifetime inequality. In: The American economic review, Jg. 101, H. 7, S. 2923-2954. DOI:10.1257/aer.101.7.2923
Abstract
"Is lifetime inequality mainly due to differences across people established early in life or to differences in luck experienced over the working lifetime? We answer this question within a model that features idiosyncratic shocks to human capital, estimated directly from data, as well as heterogeneity in ability to learn, initial human capital, and initial wealth. We find that, as of age 23, differences in initial conditions account for more of the variation in lifetime earnings, lifetime wealth, and lifetime utility than do differences in shocks received over the working lifetime." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Heterogeneous income profiles and life-cycle bias in intergenerational mobility estimation (2011)
Zitatform
Nybom, Martin & Jan Stuhler (2011): Heterogeneous income profiles and life-cycle bias in intergenerational mobility estimation. (IZA discussion paper 5697), Bonn, 38 S.
Abstract
"Research on intergenerational income mobility is based on current income since data on lifetime income are typically not available for two generations. However, using snapshots of income over shorter periods causes a so-called life-cycle bias if the snapshots cannot mimic lifetime outcomes. Using uniquely long series of Swedish income data, we show that current empirical strategies do not eliminate such bias. We focus on the widely adopted generalized errors-in-variables model and find that the remaining bias is substantial (20% of the true elasticity from left-side measurement error at the most relevant age range). IV estimates suffer from even stronger life-cycle effects and do not provide an upper bound. Inconsistencies stem from the interaction of two factors: heterogeneity in income profiles cannot be fully accounted for, and idiosyncratic deviations from average profiles correlate with individual characteristics and family background. We discuss implications of our findings for other literatures that depend on measurement of long-run income and income dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))