Auswirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland
Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt stehen seit der Ausbreitung des Coronavirus vor großen Herausforderungen. Zur Unterstützung von Beschäftigten und Unternehmen hatte der Bundestag im Eilverfahren u.a. einen leichteren Zugang zum Kurzarbeitergeld beschlossen. Dieses Themendossier stellt Einschätzungen aus Forschung und Politik zu den Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf den Arbeitsmarkt, die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und notwendige Maßnahmen in Deutschland zusammen.
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Auswirkungen auf Wirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt und Soziales in Deutschland
- Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Maßnahmen
- Exit-Strategien zur Beendigung des Lockdowns
- Kurzarbeit - Regelungen und Inanspruchnahme während der Pandemie
- Homeoffice/mobiles Arbeiten
- Auswirkungen auf Betriebe
- Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Grundsicherung nach SGB II
- Einkommenseffekte
- Einzelne Berufe und Branchen
- Berufsausbildung/Lehrstellenmarkt
- Zukunftsszenarien: Wird die Wirtschaft nach Corona nachhaltiger?
- Soziale und gesundheitliche Aspekte
- Corona und Care
- Weiterbildung
- Konjunkturpaket zur Förderung der Wirtschaft
- Personengruppen
- Regionale Aspekte
- Internationale Arbeitsmärkte / Auswirkungen der Globalisierung
- Bundesländer
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Literaturhinweis
Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: act fast and do whatever it takes (2020)
Zitatform
Baldwin, Richard & Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Hrsg.) (2020): Mitigating the COVID economic crisis. Act fast and do whatever it takes. London: CEPR Press, 219 S.
Abstract
"The COVID-19 crisis has become more predictable in a sense. What was widely viewed as a 'Chinese problem,' and then an 'Italian problem' has become an 'everybody problem'. With few exceptions, governments initially downplay the disease until sustained community transmission takes hold. Then they impose severe social distancing policies, work and school closures and the like. This inevitably leads to almost immediate economic hardship, which then leads governments to propose increasingly bold anti-recession measures. This was the pattern in Europe and looks set to be the pattern in the US and many other nations. All this is due to the highly contagious nature of the virus, and the inexorable implications of its explosive spread during the 'acceleration phase' of the epidemic. This eBook is an attempt to collect the thinking of leading economists on what is to be done. In addition to contributing to analysis of the rapidly evolving policy reactions, we hope this eBook will help nations get ahead of the curve - to think ahead on the medical and economic policies that will be needed. The collected wisdom of our authors also points to another critical aspect of this crisis. Without care, solutions to one set of economic problems could - for some nations - turn this economic crisis into a financial crisis, or a debt crisis, or a foreign exchange crisis, etc. Care must be taken to ensure that temporary solutions don't create long-lasting problems. The size of the economic damage is still very uncertain, but it is certain that it will large. Governments now need to focus on mitigating that damage. This is the time to bring out the big artillery; this is not a time to be timid, but to do whatever it takes, fast." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Weiterführende Informationen
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Literaturhinweis
Guidelines for cost-effective use of SURE: Rule-based short-time work with workers’ consent and aligned replacement rates (2020)
Zitatform
Balleer, Almut, Britta Gehrke, Brigitte Hochmuth & Christian Merkl (2020): Guidelines for cost-effective use of SURE: Rule-based short-time work with workers’ consent and aligned replacement rates. In: VOX H. 01.05.2020, o. Sz., 2020-04-27.
Abstract
"In response to the COVID-19 crisis, the EU has implemented the SURE programme which provides loans up to €100 billion to member states for the support of short-time work systems. In order to obtain the maximum unemployment stabilisation with these funds, this column argues that the SURE loans should be used to support rule-based short-time work systems that require workers’ consent and that are aligned with national short-term unemployment benefit systems. During the COVID-19 crisis, additions to these rules may be appropriate." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Beteiligte aus dem IAB
Gehrke, Britta; -
Literaturhinweis
European rescue and recovery programmes against the Corona Crisis (2020)
Bardt, Hubertus ; Jessua, Emmanuel; Helmenstein, Christian; Romano, Livio; Parthie, Sandra; Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Rapacciuolo, Ciro;Zitatform
Bardt, Hubertus, Sandra Parthie, Ciro Rapacciuolo, Livio Romano, Christian Helmenstein, Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö & Emmanuel Jessua (2020): European rescue and recovery programmes against the Corona Crisis. (IW policy paper 2020,08), Köln, 7 S.
Abstract
"The current crisis is different from the situation 2008/2009, but again it is a tremendous challenge for the economies across Europe. The Corona-crisis is hitting the economies symmetrically, though with differences in magnitude levels, while the 2009 crisis was primarily a crisis of the banking industry and the manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic: lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the coronavirus's potential effects on mortality and economic activity (2020)
Barro, Robert J.; Ursua, José F.; Weng, Joanna;Zitatform
Barro, Robert J., José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng (2020): The coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic. Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the coronavirus's potential effects on mortality and economic activity. (CESifo working paper 8166), München, 24 S.
Abstract
"Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey (2020)
Bartik, Alexander W.; Bertrand, Marianne; Luca, Michael ; Glaeser, Edward L.; Stanton, Christopher T.; Cullen, Zoë B.;Zitatform
Bartik, Alexander W., Marianne Bertrand, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton (2020): How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey. (NBER working paper 26989), Cambridge, Mass., 35 S. DOI:10.3386/w26989
Abstract
"In addition to its impact on public health, COVID-19 has had a major impact on the economy. To shed light on how COVID-19 is affecting small businesses – and on the likely impact of the recent stimulus bill, we conducted a survey of more than 5,800 small businesses. Several main themes emerge from the results. First, mass layoffs and closures have already occurred. In our sample, 43 percent of businesses are temporarily closed, and businesses have – on average – reduced their employee counts by 40 percent relative to January. Second, consistent with previous literature, we find that many small businesses are financially fragile. For example, the median business has more than $10,000 in monthly expenses and less than one month of cash on hand. Third, businesses have widely varying beliefs about the likely duration of COVID related disruptions. Fourth, the majority of businesses planned to seek funding through the CARES act. However, many anticipated problems with accessing the aid, such as bureaucratic hassles and difficulties establishing eligibility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis (2020)
Zitatform
Bartik, Alexander W., Marianne Bertrand, Feng Lin, Jesse Rothstein & Matt Unrath (2020): Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. (NBER working papers 27613), Cambridge, MA, 53 S. DOI:10.3386/w27613
Abstract
"We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from March to early July, contrast this downturn to previous recessions, and provide preliminary evidence on the effects of the policy response. For hourly workers at both small and large businesses, nearly all of the decline in employment occurred between March 14 and 28. It was driven by low-wage services, particularly the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. A large share of the job losses in small businesses reflected firms that closed entirely, though many subsequently reopened. Firms that were already unhealthy were more likely to close and less likely to reopen, and disadvantaged workers were more likely to be laid off and less likely to return. Most laid off workers expected to be recalled, and this was predictive of rehiring. Shelter-in-place orders drove only a small share of job losses. Last, states that received more small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program and states with more generous unemployment insurance benefits had milder declines and faster recoveries. We find no evidence that high UI replacement rates drove job losses or slowed rehiring." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
National containment policies and international cooperation (2020)
Beck, Thorsten; Wagner, Wolf;Zitatform
Beck, Thorsten & Wolf Wagner (2020): National containment policies and international cooperation. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 120-134.
Abstract
"Policies that curtail social and economic activities during a pandemic are predominantly decided upon at the national level, but have international ramifications. In this paper we examine what type of inefficiencies this may create and how cooperation across countries may improve outcomes. We find that inefficiencies arise even among completely identical countries. We show that countries are likely to choose excessively lenient policies from the perspective of world welfare in later stages of the pandemic. This provides a rationale for setting minimum containment standards internationally. By contrast, in early and intermediate stages of the pandemic, national containment policies may also be excessively strict. Whether or not this is the case depends on a country's degree of economic integration relative to (outward and inward) mobility of people. Analyzing the stringency of containment policies during the current epidemic confirms that countries with higher economic integration adopt stringent containment policies more quickly whereas countries subject to high mobility do so later." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Die Corona-Krise in den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern: Eine Katastrophe naht (2020)
Beer, Sonja;Zitatform
Beer, Sonja (2020): Die Corona-Krise in den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern: Eine Katastrophe naht. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,57), Köln, 3 S.
Abstract
"Seit Wochen breitet sich das Coronavirus im Westen stark aus. China ist die Eindämmung des Virus zum Teil gelungen. Obwohl die wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen in den meisten Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern bereits jetzt schon deutlich spürbar sind, steht im Hinblick auf die Verbreitung des Virus noch das Schlimmste bevor." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response (2020)
Zitatform
Beland, Louis-Philippe, Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright (2020): The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19. Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response. (IZA discussion paper 13159), Bonn, 91 S.
Abstract
"In this ongoing project, we examine the short-term consequences of COVID-19 on employment and wages in the United States. Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we document the impact of COVID-19 at the national-level using a simple difference and test whether states with relatively more confirmed cases/deaths were more affected. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 increased the unemployment rate, decreased hours of work and labor force participation and had no significant impacts on wages. The negative impacts on labor market outcomes are larger for men, younger workers, Hispanics and less educated workers. This suggest that COVID-19 increases labor market inequalities. We also investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We built three indexes using ACS and O*NET data: workers relatively more exposed to disease, workers that work with proximity to coworkers and workers who can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that individuals in occupations working in proximity to others are more affected while occupations able to work remotely are less affected. We also find that occupations classified as more exposed to disease are less affected, possibly due to the large number of essential workers in these occupations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Internationaler Konjunktureinbruch als Folge der COVID-19-Pandemie (2020)
Bilek-Steindl, Sandra;Zitatform
Bilek-Steindl, Sandra (2020): Internationaler Konjunktureinbruch als Folge der COVID-19-Pandemie. In: Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Jg. 93, H. 5, S. 327-334.
Abstract
"Die Weltwirtschaft wurde von den Auswirkungen der zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie international gesetzten gesundheitspolitischen Restriktionen hart getroffen. Erste Daten zeigen bereits einen BIP-Rückgang im I. Quartal in allen wichtigen Wirtschaftsregionen. Die Vertrauensindikatoren brachen auf ein Niveau wie während der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/09 ein. Auch in Österreich sank die Wirtschaftsleistung bereits im I. Quartal. Besonders betroffen waren der Konsum sowie der Bereich Beherbergung und Gastronomie, Verkehr, Handel, Instandhaltung und Reparatur von Kfz sowie die sonstigen Dienstleistungen. Nachdem die Arbeitslosigkeit Ende März innerhalb von zwei Wochen massiv zugenommen hatte, stieg sie im April weiter, allerdings schwächer. Die Inflation ging im März zurück." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © WIFO - Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)
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Literaturhinweis
Managing work-life balance during the Covid-19 crisis: A Survey with 1500+ participants worldwide (2020)
Bilge, Pınar; Alkan, Asım Can; Ağanoğlu, Ruzin;Zitatform
Bilge, Pınar, Asım Can Alkan & Ruzin Ağanoğlu (2020): Managing work-life balance during the Covid-19 crisis. A Survey with 1500+ participants worldwide. Berlin, XVII, 189 S.
Abstract
"Seit April 2020 leben ca. 80% aller Arbeitskräfte weltweit aufgrund der COVID-19-Pandemie mit obligatorischen oder empfohlenen Schließungen von Arbeitsplätzen. Arbeitskräfte sind gezwungen von Zuhause aus zu arbeiten. Bei der Arbeit im Homeoffice führen die fehlende Trennung von Beruf und Familie sowie die zusätzliche Belastung durch Homeschooling zu Stress, insbesondere bei Frauen. Das zeigt eine weltweit angelegte Online-Umfrage des Arbeitskreises Chancengleichheit der Deutschen Physikalischen Gesellschaft (DPG), an der zwischen Mitte April und Ende Juni 2020 über 1500 überwiegend aus Europa stammende Beschäftigte teilnahmen. 70 Prozent der Befragten hatten eine akademische Position inne und 43 Prozent einen Hintergrund in Physik. Paare (ohne Kinder) im Alter zwischen 30 und 39 Jahren mit mehr als zehn Jahren Berufserfahrung stellten dabei die größte Gruppe dar." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Mitigating the work-safety trade-off (2020)
Zitatform
Boeri, Tito, Alessandro Caiumi & Marco Paccagnella (2020): Mitigating the work-safety trade-off. In: Covid economics H. 2, S. 60-66.
Abstract
"How many jobs can be carried out without putting workers at risk of contracting Covid-19? And how many of these jobs can be activated as soon as the most severe restrictions to mobility will be lifted? To which extent do these jobs belong to the chain involved in the war against Covid-19? In this paper, we aim to provide preliminary answers to these questions drawing on the case of Italy, the first Western country to be hit by the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Inequality homeschooling during the Corona crisis in the Netherlands: First results from the LISS panel (2020)
Zitatform
Bol, Thijs (2020): Inequality homeschooling during the Corona crisis in the Netherlands. First results from the LISS panel. (SocArxiv papers), 20 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/hf32q
Abstract
"The outbreak of the Corona virus has led to unprecedented measures in education. From March 16, all schools in the Netherlands are closed, and children must keep up with their schoolwork from home. Parents are expected to take a crucial role in this “homeschooling”: they are primarily responsible for ensuring that their children follow the curriculum. In this article I report the first results of a module in the LISS Panel that was designed to map how parents school their children in primary and secondary education. Data on a nationally representative sample of 1,318 children in primary and secondary education were gathered in April. The results show marked differences between social groups. Whereas all parents find it important that their children keep up with the schoolwork, children from advantaged backgrounds receive much more parental support and have more resources (e.g., own computer) to study from home. Differences in parental support are driven by the ability to help: parents with a higher education degree feels themselves much capable to help their children with schoolwork than lower educated parents. Parents also report that schools provide more extensive distant schooling for children in the academic track in secondary education (vwo) than for children in the pre-vocational track (vmbo). Finally, there is a clear gender gap: parents feel much more capable to support their daughters than their sons. These initial findings provide clear indications that the school shutdown in the Netherlands is likely to have strong effects on the inequality in educational opportunities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Covid-19: Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation: Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Expertenumfrage (2020)
Zitatform
Boumans, Dorine, Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer (2020): Covid-19: Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation. Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Expertenumfrage. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 73, H. 5, S. 52-56.
Abstract
"Das ifo Institut hat rund 1 000 Ökonom*innen in 110 Ländern zu den Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft befragt: Die Pandemie wird das Wirtschaftsgeschehen rund um den Globus über eine Vielzahl verschiedener Wirkungskanälen negativ beeinflussen. Die Expert*innen sind der Ansicht, dass sich vor allem Investitionskürzungen erheblich negativ auswirken werden, stellen aber auch steigende Haushaltsdefizite der Staaten, geringere Konsumausgaben sowie Unternehmensschließungen und die Probleme in den internationalen Lieferketten als starke Behinderungsgründe fest. In der Folge erwarten sie für das Jahr 2020 schwere Rezessionen in fast allen Ländern, die zusammengenommen zu einem Rückgang der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung um – 1,9% führen dürften. Nur noch wenige Länder, wie etwa China oder Indien, dürften im Jahr 2020 mit historisch niedrigen Raten wachsen. Dennoch sind auch in diesen Ländern die Erwartungen deutlich pessimistischer als vor Ausbruch der Krise. Die Expert*innen stufen Liquiditätshilfen sowie vorübergehende Steuerstundungen für Unternehmen derzeit als die bei weitem effektivsten wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des wirtschaftlichen Schadens ein. Im Gegensatz dazu halten sie Helikoptergeld oder eine gelockerte Bankenaufsicht für wenig geeignet, um die gegenwärtige Krise zu bekämpfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation: Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Expertenumfrage (2020)
Zitatform
Boumans, Dorine, Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer (2020): Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation. Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Expertenumfrage. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 73, H. 5, S. 52-56.
Abstract
"Das ifo Institut hat rund 1 000 Ökonom*innen in 110 Ländern zu den Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft befragt: Die Pandemie wird das Wirtschaftsgeschehen rund um den Globus über eine Vielzahl verschiedener Wirkungskanälen negativ beeinflussen. Die Expert*innen sind der Ansicht, dass sich vor allem Investitionskürzungen erheblich negativ auswirken werden, stellen aber auch steigende Haushaltsdefizite der Staaten, geringere Konsumausgaben sowie Unternehmensschließungen und die Probleme in den internationalen Lieferketten als starke Behinderungsgründe fest. In der Folge erwarten sie für das Jahr 2020 schwere Rezessionen in fast allen Ländern, die zusammengenommen zu einem Rückgang der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung um –1,9% führen dürften. Nur noch wenige Länder, wie etwa China oder Indien, dürften im Jahr 2020 mit historisch niedrigen Raten wachsen. Dennoch sind auch in diesen Ländern die Erwartungen deutlich pessimistischer als vor Ausbruch der Krise. Die Expert*innen stufen Liquiditätshilfen sowie vorübergehende Steuerstundungen für Unternehmen derzeit als die bei weitem effektivsten wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des wirtschaftlichen Schadens ein. Im Gegensatz dazu halten sie Helikoptergeld oder eine gelockerte Bankenaufsicht für wenig geeignet, um die gegenwärtige Krise zu bekämpfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Twin peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market (2020)
Zitatform
Bradley, Jake, Alessandro Ruggieri & Adam Hal Spencer (2020): Twin peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market. In: Covid economics H. 29, S. 164-192.
Abstract
"This paper develops a choice-theoretic equilibrium model of the labor market in the presence of a pandemic. It includes heterogeneity in productivity, age and the ability to work at home. Worker and firm behavior changes in the presence of the virus, which itself has equilibrium consequences for the infection rate. The model is calibrated to the UK and counterfactual lockdown measures are evaluated. We find a different response in both the evolution of the virus and the labor market with different degrees of severity of lockdown. We use these insights to make a labor market policy prescription to be used in conjunction with lockdown measures. Finally we find that, while the pandemic and ensuing policies impact the majority of the population negatively, consistent with recent studies, the costs are not borne equally. While the old face the highest health risks, it is the young low wage workers who suffer the most income and employment risk." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
später (möglw. abweichend) erschienen in: European Economic Review -
Literaturhinweis
Bringing back the jobs lost to Covid-19: The role of fiscal policy (2020)
Zitatform
Bredemeier, Christian, Falko Juessen & Roland Winkler (2020): Bringing back the jobs lost to Covid-19: The role of fiscal policy. In: Covid economics H. 29, S. 99-141.
Abstract
"Covid-19 induced job losses occurred predominantly in industries with intensive worker-client interaction as well as in pink-collar and bluecollar occupations. We study the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize employment by occupation and industry during the Covid-19 crisis. We use a multi-sector, multi-occupation macroeconomic model and investigate different fiscal policy instruments that help the economy recover faster. We show that fiscal stimuli foster job growth for hardhit pink-collar workers, whereas stimulating blue-collar job creation is more challenging. A cut in labor taxes performs best in stabilizing total employment and the employment composition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Folgen der Corona-Krise für die sozialen Sicherungssysteme im Ländervergleich (Serie "Corona-Krise: Folgen für den Arbeitsmarkt") (2020)
Zitatform
Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Regina Konle-Seidl (2020): Folgen der Corona-Krise für die sozialen Sicherungssysteme im Ländervergleich (Serie "Corona-Krise: Folgen für den Arbeitsmarkt"). In: IAB-Forum H. 02.10.2020 Nürnberg, o. Sz., 2020-10-01.
Abstract
"Ähnlich wie in Deutschland hat die Corona-Krise auch in anderen Ländern Lücken in der sozialen Absicherung bestimmter Beschäftigtengruppen offenbart. Um diese in der Krise besser zu schützen, wurde eine Reihe von Sozialleistungen länderübergreifend ausgeweitet. Gleichwohl besteht auch über die Krise hinaus Handlungsbedarf. So bedarf es etwa in Deutschland vor allem einer grundlegenden Reform der Minijobs und einer besseren Absicherung von Solo-Selbstständigen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The Global Effects of Covid-19-Induced Uncertainty (2020)
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Kima, Richard;Zitatform
Caggiano, Giovanni, Efrem Castelnuovo & Richard Kima (2020): The Global Effects of Covid-19-Induced Uncertainty. (CESifo working paper 8280), München, 11 S.
Abstract
"We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession (2020)
Cajner, Tomaz; Yildirmaz, Ahu ; Decker, Ryan A.; Grigsby, John; Hurst, Erik ; Crane, Leland D. ; Kurz, Christopher; Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian;Zitatform
Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz & Ahu Yildirmaz (2020): The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession. (Working paper / Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics 2020-58), Chicago, 50 S.
Abstract
"Using weekly, anonymized administrative payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll processing company, we measure the deterioration of the U.S. labor market during the first two months of the global COVID-19 pandemic. We find that U.S. private-sector employment contracted by about 22 percent between mid-February and mid-April. Businesses suspending operations|perhaps temporarily|account for a significant share of employment losses, particularly among smaller businesses. Hours worked for continuing workers fell by 4.5 percent. We highlight large differences in employment declines by industry, business size, state of residence, and demographic group. Workers in the bottom quintile of the wage distribution experienced a 35 percent employment decline while those in the top quintile experienced only a 9 percent decline. Large differences across the wage distribution persist even after conditioning on worker age, business industry, business size, and worker location. As a result, average base wages increased by over 5 percent, though this increase arose entirely through a composition effect. Over- all, we document that the speed and magnitude of labor market deterioration during the early parts of the pandemic were unprecedented in the postwar period, particularly for the bottom of the earnings distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Auswirkungen auf Wirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt und Soziales in Deutschland
- Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Maßnahmen
- Exit-Strategien zur Beendigung des Lockdowns
- Kurzarbeit - Regelungen und Inanspruchnahme während der Pandemie
- Homeoffice/mobiles Arbeiten
- Auswirkungen auf Betriebe
- Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Grundsicherung nach SGB II
- Einkommenseffekte
- Einzelne Berufe und Branchen
- Berufsausbildung/Lehrstellenmarkt
- Zukunftsszenarien: Wird die Wirtschaft nach Corona nachhaltiger?
- Soziale und gesundheitliche Aspekte
- Corona und Care
- Weiterbildung
- Konjunkturpaket zur Förderung der Wirtschaft
- Personengruppen
- Regionale Aspekte
- Internationale Arbeitsmärkte / Auswirkungen der Globalisierung
- Bundesländer