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Parmentier, Lucas (2024): Robotization and returns to tasks. In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 44, H. 4, S. 1545-1551.

Abstract

"I provide new evidence of the impacts of robotization on the returns to tasks in US labor markets between 1990 and 2007. I find that the adoption of one robot per thousand workers increases the changes in the returns to abstract and routine tasks by 0.049 and 0.066 percentage points, respectively, relative to manual tasks. These magnitudes imply that the adoption of one robot per thousand workers has substantial effects on wages since it increases wages by 1.70% due to the positive impact of robotization on the returns to abstract tasks, and by 3.76% due to the positive effects on the returns to routine tasks. The results are robust to various specifications." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Richiardi, Matteo, Westhoff Leonie, Astarita Caterina, Ernst Ekkehard, Fenwick Clare, Khabirpour Neysan & Pelizzari Lorenzo (2024): The impact of a decade of digital transformation on employment, wages, and inequality in the EU: A “conveyor belt” hypothesis. (CeMPA working paper series / Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis (CeMPA) 5/24), Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research 54 S.

Abstract

"We study the effects of digital transformation in the EU on individual employment outcomes, wage growth, and income inequality, during the decade 2010-2019. Our results allow us to formulate a “conveyor belt” hypothesis, whereas digital skills are important for finding a job, but less so for retaining it. The ability of out-of-work individuals with higher digital skills to jump back on the labour market is reduced for those with higher education, suggesting a faster depreciation of their digital skills. A similar effect, although of limited size, is found for earning growth: out-of-work individuals with higher digital skills are not only more likely to find a job, but experience higher earning growth, compared to their peers with lower digital skills. Our results point to a vulnerability of workers “left behind” from the digital transformation and the labour market. The overall effects on inequality are, however, limited." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Scholze, Alexander & Achim Hecker (2024): The job demands-resources model as a theoretical lens for the bright and dark side of digitization. In: Computers in Human Behavior, Jg. 155. DOI:10.1016/j.chb.2024.108177

Abstract

"With digitization continuing to reshape work environments, organizations must confront the challenges of comprehending its “bright side” and “dark side” effects. A growing imperative exists to comprehend how digitization affects employee well-being and to create sustainable health-centric workplaces. The established Job Demands-Resources model offers a pertinent theoretical framework for gaining fresh insights into alterations in job demands and resources caused by digitization. This study extends the Job Demands-Resources model to include digital job demands and resources by utilizing a sample of 898 white-collar employees. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling was employed to investigate digitization's interrelationships and dependencies within an organizational context. The results confirm that the Job Demands-Resources model offers a holistic approach to investigating the concrete effects of the “dark side" and “bright side" of digitization in a concrete work scenario and to classify them in a theoretically structured way. This study offers starting points for the future design of workplaces and strategies for organizations to harness the positive aspects of digitization while concurrently mitigating the psychological stress on employees." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Stehrer, Robert (2024): Neue Technologien und Löhne. Erste Analysen basierend auf österreichischen Mikrodaten. (WIIW Forschungsarbeiten in deutscher Sprache 27), Wien, 40 S.

Abstract

"In diesem Bericht wird der Effekt der Verwendung neuer Technologien – von Robotern, 3D-Druck, Big Data und anderer softwarebasierter Anwendungen – auf Löhne und Lohnstrukturen untersucht. Die Untersuchung beruht auf der IKTU-Erhebung und weiteren detaillierten Daten auf Firmen- und Personenebene. Als Methode werden Mincer-Regressionen in einer Querschnittsanalyse geschätzt, in denen für Personen- und Firmenmerkmale kontrolliert wird. Für Letztere wird insbesondere eine Variable verwendet, die anzeigt, ob die Firma neue Technologien (z. B. Roboter) verwendet oder nicht. Die Resultate zeigen, dass die Auswirkungen der neuen Technologien auf Löhne durchaus differenziert betrachtet werden müssen. Die Effekte sind jedoch in allen Fällen gering bzw. insignifikant. Interessanterweise gibt es in so gut wie allen Fällen – mit Ausnahme der Verwendung von Chatservices –- einen positiven Effekt auf die Löhne der Frauen. Über die Bildungsgruppen hinweg zeigen sich leichte Polarisierungsmuster, wobei jedoch die Personen mit mittlerer Qualifikation im Durchschnitt eher positiv betroffen sind." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Stehrer, Robert (2024): Neue Technologien, Firmenperformance und Beschäftigung. Erste Analysen basierend auf österreichischen Firmendaten. (WIIW Forschungsarbeiten in deutscher Sprache 26), Wien, 34 S.

Abstract

"Dieser Bericht untersucht basierend auf Firmendaten für Österreich – der IKTU-Erhebung und den LSE-Daten – den Zusammenhang von neuen Technologien mit der Firmenperformance und Beschäftigungsstrukturen. Neue Technologien – untersucht werden der Einsatz von Robotern, 3D-Druck, Big-Data-Analysen, Verwendung von Cloud- und Chat-Services, CRM-Software oder automatisierter Datenaustausch, Verwendung sozialer Medien sowie auch die Beschäftigung von IKT-Spezialisten und -Spezialistinnen bzw. die Durchführung von IKT-Schulungen – korrelieren stark positiv mit der Größe der Firmen gemessen am Umsatz, der Beschäftigung und den Investitionen. Firmen, die neue Technologien verwenden, sind auch durchschnittlich produktiver und zahlen durchschnittlich etwas höhere Löhne. Letzteres gilt jedoch nicht, wenn man auch für die Größe kontrolliert. Es zeigen sich keine signifikanten Wachstumseffekte in Bezug auf diese Variablen, und somit finden sich auch keine signifikanten Beschäftigungseffekte, die – wie oftmals befürchtet – von der Anwendung der neuen Technologien ausgehen. Auch hinsichtlich der Beschäftigungsstrukturen (unter Kontrolle von Firmengröße) – untersucht wurden der Anteil von Frauen, geringfügig bzw. Teilzeitbeschäftigten und der Anteil der Lehrlinge – finden sich kaum signifikante bzw. robuste Resultate dahingehend, dass sich Firmen, die neue Technologien anwenden, von denen unterscheiden, die das nicht tun. Auch hier gibt es keinerlei Hinweise darauf, dass sich die Beschäftigungsanteile bei den beiden Typen der Firmen unterschiedlich stark verändern. Diese Resultate können und sollen auf Basis der hier verwendeten und weiterer Daten als Grundlage für weitere Untersuchungen dienen (z. B. für detailliertere Beschäftigungsstrukturen), um mögliche Auswirkungen der „digitalen Revolution“ auf Beschäftigung auf Firmenebene besser abschätzen zu können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Stepanok, Ignat & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie (2024): Skill Supply, Technology Diffusion and the Labor Market. In: German Economic Review, Jg. 25, H. 2, S. 101-125., 2024-05-28. DOI:10.1515/ger-2023-0098

Abstract

"We analyze the short and long-run effects of an increase in the skill supply on skill-specific wages and unemployment in a model with endogenous, nonlinear diffusion of a general purpose technology (GPT) and labor market frictions. We calibrate and simulate the model using the trend rise in relative skill supply in the U.S. over two decades starting in the early 1970s. The transitional dynamics of the model show (i) an initial slump and long-run rise in the relative wage of high-skill labor and (ii) a long-run rise in the relative level of unemployment of low-skill versus high-skill labor. An increase in the number of skilled individuals reduces hiring costs and increases the incentive for firms to engage in the costly adoption of a new GPT. Stronger labor market rigidity and higher worker bargaining power are shown to have similar effects on relative wages and unemployment: changes in relative wages are more pronounced, whereas the response of relative unemployment is muted. The exact opposite effects are found in the case of a higher degree of substitution between products." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku; © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Tan, Joanne (2024): Multidimensional heterogeneity and matching in a frictional labor market - An application to polarization. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 90. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102604

Abstract

"This paper examines the role that changes in production technology, namely computerization, have played on labor market inequality in the US from the late 1980s to the 2010s. It also demonstrates that such technological change is consistent with the timing of labor market polarization in the US, including the end of the decline in 50∕10 wage percentile ratio and the slowdown of employment growth in high-wage jobs from the 2000s. The paper does so using a model with two key ingredients: 1) directed search and 2) two-sided multidimensional heterogeneity. Calibration results show that the complementarity between a workers’ cognitive skills and the cognitive task intensity of jobs increased while that between manual skill and tasks did not. The full model can fully account for the rise and fall of the 90∕50 and 50∕10 wage percentile ratios respectively. It also generates 72.6 percent of the rise in employment share of high-paying jobs relative to middling jobs and 69 percent of the fall in employment share of middling jobs relative to low-paying jobs. The paper suggests that the end of the decline in the 50∕10 wage ratio may be due to rank-switching between workers across the wage distribution from the 2000s, while the slowdown of employment growth in high-wage jobs may result from the trade-off between the returns to applying for high-wage jobs and the likelihood of being hired." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Tirabeni, Lia (2024): Bounded Well-Being: Designing Technologies for Workers' Well-Being in Corporate Programmes. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 38, H. 6, S. 1506-1527. DOI:10.1177/09500170231203113

Abstract

"This article examines the relationship between workers’ well-being and digitalisation at work. It is based on the findings of a qualitative study carried out in a manufacturing company, and it focuses on the development of a wearable device for well-being. Using the analytical concepts of ‘translation’ and ‘inscription’ taken from Actor-Network Theory, it explores how digital technologies for well-being are designed in corporate programmes and shows how the final technology results from processes of inscription and translation performed by the actors involved in the design phase. The end device embodies a concept of well-being that has been called ‘bounded’ to emphasise how well-being at work is limited by organisational constraints. The article invites a rethinking of hedonic well-being at work as a precondition for eudaimonic well-being so that the human being is understood as a psychophysical unit that is part of a rich social context." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Traverso, Silvio, Massimiliano Vatiero & Enrico Zaninotto (2024): Automation and flexible labor contracts: Firm-level evidence from Italy. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 1425), Essen, 33 S.

Abstract

"This study examines the association between investments in automation technologies and employment outcomes at the firm level, utilizing a panel dataset of about 10,450 Italian firms. Focusing on the proliferation of non-standard, flexible labor contracts introduced by labor market reforms in the 2000s, we identify a positive relationship between automation investments and the adoption of flexible labor arrangements. With the aid of a conceptual framework, we interpret these findings as evidence of complementarity between flexible capital, represented by automation technologies, and flexible labor, manifested through non-standard contractual arrangements. This complementarity is crucial for enhancing operational flexibility, a critical determinant of firm performance in the modern market environment. However, while this adaptability is beneficial for firms, it raises concerns about job security, the potential for lower wages among workers, and the reduction of workers' incentives to invest in human capital. In terms of policy implications, our analysis underscores the need for measures that safeguard workers' interests without compromising the efficiency gains from automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron, Hans R. A. Koster & Ceren Ozgen (2023): Robots and Workers: Evidence from the Netherlands. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31009), Cambridge, Mass, 60 S.

Abstract

"We estimate the effects of robot adoption on firm-level and worker-level outcomes in the Netherlands using a large employer-employee panel dataset spanning 2009-2020. Our firm-level results confirm previous findings, with positive effects on value added and hours worked for robot-adopting firms and negative outcomes on competitors in the same industry. Our worker-level results show that directly-affected workers (e.g., blue-collar workers performing routine or replaceable tasks) face lower earnings and employment rates, while other workers indirectly gain from robot adoption. We also find that the negative effects from competitors' robot adoption load on directly-affected workers, while other workers benefit from this industry-level robot adoption. Overall, our results highlight the uneven effects of automation on the workforce." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Albanesi, Stefania, António Dias da Silva, Juan F. Jimeno, Ana Lamo & Alena Wabitsch (2023): New Technologies and Jobs in Europe. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16227), Bonn, 58 S.

Abstract

"We examine the link between labour market developments and new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and software in 16 European countries over the period 2011- 2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level in Europe, we find that on average employment shares have increased in occupations more exposed to AI. This is particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers. This evidence is in line with the Skill Biased Technological Change theory. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, only very few countries show a decline in employment shares of occupations more exposed to AI-enabled automation. Country heterogeneity for this result seems to be linked to the pace of technology diffusion and education, but also to the level of product market regulation (competition) and employment protection laws. In contrast to the findings for employment, we find little evidence for a relationship between wages and potential exposures to new technologies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Babina, Tania, Anastassia Fedyk, Alex X. He & James Hodson (2023): Firm Investments in Artificial Intelligence Technologies and Changes in Workforce Composition. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31325), Cambridge, Mass, 47 S.

Abstract

"We study the shifts in U.S. firms' workforce composition and organization associated with the use of AI technologies. To do so, we leverage a unique combination of worker resume and job postings datasets to measure firm-level AI investments and workforce composition variables, such as educational attainment, specialization, and hierarchy. We document that firms with higher initial shares of highly-educated workers and STEM workers invest more in AI. As firms invest in AI, they tend to transition to more educated workforces, with higher shares of workers with undergraduate and graduate degrees, and more specialization in STEM fields and IT skills. Furthermore, AI investments are associated with a flattening of the firms' hierarchical structure, with significant increases in the share of workers at the junior level and decreases in shares of workers in middle-management and senior roles. Overall, our results highlight that adoption of AI technologies is associated with significant reorganization of firms' workforces." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Barrero, José María, Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis (2023): The Evolution of Work from Home. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 37, H. 4, S. 23-49. DOI:10.1257/jep.37.4.23

Abstract

"Full days worked at home account for 28 percent of paid workdays among Americans 20–64 years old, as of mid-2023. That’s about four times the 2019 rate and ten times the rate in the mid-1990s. We first explain why the big shift to work from home has endured rather than reverting to prepandemic levels. We then consider how work-from-home rates vary by worker age, sex, education, parental status, industry and local population density, and why it is higher in the United States than other countries. We also discuss some implications for pay, productivity, and the pace of innovation. Over the next five years, US business executives anticipate modest increases in work-from-home rates at their own companies. Other factors that portend an enduring shift to work from home include the ongoing adaptation of managerial practices and further advances in technologies, products, and tools that support remote work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berg, Janine, Francis Green, Laura Nurski & David A. Spencer (2023): Risks to job quality from digital technologies: Are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge? In: European journal of industrial relations, Jg. 29, H. 4, S. 347-365. DOI:10.1177/09596801231178904

Abstract

"We examine job quality effects of new digital technologies, using the European frame of seven job quality domains: Pay, Working Time Quality, Prospects, Skills and Discretion, Work Intensity, Social Environment, and Physical Environment. Theoretical effects are ambivalent across all domains. The analysis of these effects confirms that digital technologies can both improve and harm job quality depending on how they are used. In light of this analysis and to think through the challenge of regulating digital technologies, we review emerging regulations across several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we argue that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application of data protection legislation to the regulation of job quality. Overall, the paper extends debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, on to a consideration of job quality more broadly." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Blien, Uwe, Oliver Ludewig & Anja Rossen (2023): Contradictory effects of technological change across developed countries. In: Review of International Economics, Jg. 31, H. 2, S. 580-608., 2022-08-31. DOI:10.1111/roie.12638

Abstract

"Will productivity gains lead to technological unemployment in a region or to new prosperity? In our article, we formally show that under general assumptions the price elasticity of demand on product markets is decisive: technological change leads to employment growth if product demand is elastic and it leads to employment decline if product demand is inelastic. In our empirical analysis, we use industry-level time series data on output, prices, employment, wages, and national income for nine countries (including Germany, UK, USA) to estimate aggregate Marshallian product demand functions based on IV regressions and state space models with time-varying coefficients. The resulting income and price elasticities are used as inputs in a second step in which we estimate the employment effects of productivity changes as interactions with the elasticities. The results correspond to theoretical expectations: demand is generally inelastic and the employment effect of technological progress is therefore moderately negative." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))

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Bock-Schappelwein, Julia & Andrea Egger (2023): Arbeitsmarkt und Beruf 2030. Rückschlüsse für Österreich. (AMS-Report / Arbeitsmarktservice Österreich 173), Wien, 110 S.

Abstract

"Demographie, Digitalisierung und Ökologisierung werden die Arbeitswelt in den kommenden Jahren maßgeblich beeinflussen. Mit Hilfe von Literaturanalysen wird im Rahmen dieser mit Jahresmitte 2023 abgeschlossenen Studie im Auftrag der Abt. Arbeitsmarktforschung und Berufsinformation des AMS Österreich von den beiden Autorinnen Julia Bock-Schappelwein (WIFO) und Andrea Egger (abif) nach Berufsfeldern gesucht, in denen sich diese Herausforderungen deutlich abzeichnen und möglicherweise gegenseitig verstärken. Ziel ist es, besonders betroffene Berufsfelder zu identifizieren und damit verbundene Anpassungs- bzw. Qualifizierungsbedarfe aufzuzeigen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bowlus, Audra, Lance Lochner, Chris Robinson & Eda Suleymanoglu (2023): Wages, Skills, and Skill-Biased Technical Change. The Canonical Model Revisited. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 58, H. 6, S. 1783-1819. DOI:10.3368/jhr.0617-8889r1

Abstract

"While influential, the canonical supply–demand model of the wage returns to skill has faced challenges, including theoretically wrong-signed elasticities of substitution, counterintuitive paths for skill-biased technical change (SBTC), and an inability to account for observed deviations in college premia for younger versus older workers. We show that using improved estimates of skill prices and supplies that account for variation in skills across cohorts helps to explain the college premium differences between younger versus older workers and produces better out-of-sample predictions, positive elasticities of substitution between high- and low-skill workers, and a more modest role for SBTC. We further show that accounting for recession-induced jumps and trend adjustments in SBTC and linking SBTC to direct measures of information technology investment expenditures yield an improved fit, no puzzling slowdown in SBTC during the early 1990s, and a higher elasticity of substitution between high- and low-skill workers than previous ad hoc assumptions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))

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Bughin, Jacques (2023): Does artificial intelligence kill employment growth: the missing link of corporate AI posture. In: Frontiers in artificial intelligence, Jg. 6. DOI:10.3389/frai.2023.1239466

Abstract

"Introduction An intense debate has been on-going about how artificial intelligence (AI) technology investments have an impact on employment. The debate has often focused on the potential of AI for human task automation, omitting the strategic incentive for firms to cooperate with their workers as to exploit AI technologies for the most relevant benefit of new product and service innovation. Method We calibrate an empirical probit regression model of how changes in employment relate to AI diffusion, based on formalizing a game-theoretical model of a firm exploiting the twin role of AI innovation and AI automation for both absolute and competitive advantage. Results The theoretical game-theory prediction is that employment following AI technology adoption is not negative, and ultimately depends on how AI leads to new success in innovation, competition which defines the competitive reward of innovation and profit sharing between workers and firms. Our estimation, is based on a global survey of 3,000 large companies across 10 countries, demonstrates that a firm employment growth depends on two strategic postures, that is, the firm relative maturity of AI adoption as well as its relative bias toward AI-based product innovation. Discussion The contribution of this research is to highlight the twin role of firm and workers in shaping how technology will affect employment. AI in particular marries the potential of task automation with even more potential for expansion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carbonero, Francesco, Enzo Weber & Christian J. Offermanns (2023): The Fall of the Labor Income Share: the Role of Technological Change and Hiring Frictions. In: Review of Economic Dynamics, Jg. 49, S. 251-268., 2022-01-09. DOI:10.1016/j.red.2022.09.001

Abstract

"Die Veränderungen in der funktionalen Einkommensverteilung erhalten in der Forschung viel Aufmerksamkeit. Wir dokumentieren einen durchschnittlichen Rückgang des labour share (Anteil des Faktors Arbeit an der Einkommensverteilung) von 8 Prozentpunkten für acht europäische Länder und die USA zwischen 1980 und 2007. Wir untersuchen theoretisch und empirisch zwei Mechanismen: Substitution zwischen Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT) und Arbeit sowie Friktionen bei Beschäftigungsanpassungen. Wir finden, dass Substitution zwischen IKT und Arbeit wesentlich den Rückgang des labour share erklären kann. Wenn Arbeitsmarktfriktionen berücksichtigt werden, übernehmen diese allerdings einen Teil der Erklärungskraft. Insbesondere spielen Einstellungskosten in Europa eine größere Rolle als in den USA. Schließlich wird die Subsitutionselastizität zwischen IKT und Arbeit als Funktion institutioneller und struktureller Variablen modelliert und festgestellt, dass sie mit dem Anteil von Routine-Berufen positiv und mit dem Anteil hochqualifizierter Arbeiter negativ korreliert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Caunedo, Julieta, David Jaume & Elisa Keller (2023): Occupational Exposure to Capital-Embodied Technical Change. In: The American economic review, Jg. 113, H. 6, S. 1642-1685. DOI:10.1257/aer.20211478

Abstract

"We study differences in exposure to factor-biased technical change among occupations by providing the first measures of capital-embodied technical change (CETC) and of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor at the occupational level. We document sizable occupational heterogeneity in both measures, but quantitatively, it is the heterogeneity in factor substitutability that fuels workers' exposure to CETC. In a general equilibrium model of worker sorting across occupations, CETC accounts for almost all of the observed labor reallocation in the US between 1984 and 2015. Absent occupational heterogeneity in factor substitutability, CETC accounts for only 17 percent of it." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Corrocher, Nicoletta, Daniele Moschella, Jacopo Staccioli & Marco Vivarelli (2023): Innovation and the Labor Market: Theory, Evidence and Challenges. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16199), Bonn, 32 S.

Abstract

"This paper deals with the complex relationship between innovation and the labor market, analyzing the impact of new technological advancements on overall employment, skills and wages. After a critical review of the extant literature and the available empirical studies, novel evidence is presented on the distribution of labor-saving automation (namely robotics and AI), based on natural language processing of US patents. This mapping shows that both upstream high-tech providers and downstream users of new technologies—such as Boeing and Amazon—lead the underlying innovative effort." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Damioli, Giacomo, Vincent Van Roy, Daniel Vertesy & Marco Vivarelli (2023): AI technologies and employment: micro evidence from the supply side. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 30, H. 6, S. 816-821. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2021.2024129

Abstract

"In this work we investigate the possible job-creation impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, focusing on the supply side, where the development of these technologies can be conceived as product innovations in upstream sectors. The empirical analysis is based on a worldwide longitudinal sample (obtained by merging the EPO PATSTAT and BvD-ORBIS databases) of more than 3,500 front-runner companies that patented AI-related inventions over the period 2000–2016. Based on system GMM estimates of dynamic panel models, our results show a positive and significant impact of AI patent families on employment, supporting the labour-friendly nature of AI product innovation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Damioli, Giacomo, Vincent Van Roy, Daniel Vertesy & Marco Vivarelli (2023): The employment impact of AI technologies among AI innovators. (MSI discussion paper / KU Leuwen 2306), KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Management, Strategy and Innovation, Leuven 36 S.

Abstract

"This study supports the labour-friendly nature of product innovation among developers of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. GMM-SYS estimates on a worldwide longitudinal dataset covering 3,500 companies that patented inventions related to AI technologies over the period 2000-2016 show a positive and significant impact of AI patent families on employment. The effect is small in magnitude and limited to service sectors and younger firms, which are front-runners of the AI revolution. We also detect some evidence of increasing returns suggesting that innovative companies more focused on AI technologies are those obtaining larger impacts in terms of job creation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Doorn, Niels van, Fabian Ferrari & Mark Graham (2023): Migration and Migrant Labour in the Gig Economy: An Intervention. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 37, H. 4, S. 1099-1111. DOI:10.1177/09500170221096581

Abstract

"In urban gig economies around the world, platform labour is predominantly migrant labour, yet research on the intersection of the gig economy and labour migration remains scant. Our experience with two action research projects, spanning six cities on four continents, has taught us how platform work impacts the structural vulnerability of migrant workers. This leads us to two claims that should recalibrate the gig economy research agenda. First, we argue that platform labour simultaneously degrades working conditions while offering migrants much-needed opportunities to improve their livelihoods. Second, we contend that the reclassification of gig workers as employees is by itself not sufficient to counter the precarisation of migrant gig work. Instead, we need ambitious policies at the intersection of immigration, social welfare, and employment regulation that push back against the digitally mediated commodification of migrant labour worldwide." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ebeke, Christian H. & Kodjovi M. Eklou (2023): Automation and the employment elasticity of fiscal policy. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 75. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103502

Abstract

"This paper investigates whether automation (the use of industrial robots in production) makes fiscal policy less powerful for stimulating job creation. It posits that a fiscal stimulus will lead to fewer new jobs if the supplementary demand that it creates can be met by using more robots in production processes. Using data for 18 European countries over recent decades, including data on the use of industrial robots, our results show three main findings. First, the pace of automation for the average country in the sample has halved the sensitivity of employment to fiscal stimulus. Second, manufacturing industry employment reacts less to fiscal stimulus in the presence of rapid automation as the average substituability between labor and machines is relatively higher. Third, low-skill jobs as well as women employment are less sensitive to fiscal stimulus in the presence of rapid robot use. We conclude that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in expanding job creation faces an important challenge in a world undergoing structural changes such as the rapid pace of automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Fernández-Macías, Enrique, Martina Bisello, Eleonora Peruffo & Riccardo Rinaldi (2023): Routinization of work processes, de-routinization of job structures. In: Socio-economic review, Jg. 21, H. 3, S. 1773-1794. DOI:10.1093/ser/mwac044

Abstract

"This article investigates changes in routine tasks and computer use in European jobs in the period 1995–2015, putting them in the context of the debates on the future of work and the impact of automation. Digital technologies not only affect employment shifts but also shape work organization. A shift-share analysis combining European Working Conditions Survey and European Labour Force Survey data assesses to what extent recent changes in tasks are the result of changes in the structure of employment (shifts in employment across jobs) or changes in the content of work itself (transformation in the task contents and methods within jobs). The results suggest contrasting trends between observed changes in tasks measures within jobs and compositional shifts in employment for routine tasks indexes. Employment structures are de-routinizing while work itself is becoming more routine. These results seem also related to the increased use of computers at work during the same period." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Garin, Andrew, Emilie Jackson, Dmitri K. Koustas & Alicia Miller (2023): The Evolution of Platform Gig Work, 2012-2021. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31273), Cambridge, Mass, 72 S.

Abstract

"We document the dynamics of tax-based measures of work mediated by online platforms from 2012 through 2021. We present a measurement framework to account for high reporting thresholds on some information returns using returns from states with lower reporting thresholds to provide a more complete estimate of total platform work. Updating data through 2021 allows us to provide the most comprehensive estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic on tax filing behavior. We find that the number of workers receiving information returns not subject to the 1099-K gap increased dramatically during the pandemic, with least 5 million individuals receiving information returns from platform gig work by 2021, nearly all from transportation platforms. We present evidence that the availability of expanded unemployment insurance benefits resulted in many individuals who were platform workers in 2019 not reporting any self-employment income in 2020-2021. At the same time, other services done by platform gig workers increased dramatically by at least 3.1 million people between 2019 and 2021. Interestingly, the broader 1099-contract economy follows a different trend, declining during this period, suggesting the challenges for tax administration are largely concentrated among platform gig workers, at least through 2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ghosh, Pallab & Zexuan Liu (2023): The puzzle of changes in employment and wages in routine task-intensive occupations. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 65, H. 4, S. 1965-1980. DOI:10.1007/s00181-023-02394-x

Abstract

"Autor and Dorn (Am Econ Rev 103(5):1553–1597, 2013) provide an explanation of the polarization of US employment and wages for the period 1980–2005. Using the 1980 Census and 2005 American Community Survey data, this study replicates the estimation results of Autor and Dorn (2013) for employment polarization in all major occupation groups and qualitatively matches the wage polarization results. Also, we investigate the puzzle of why employment and wages changed in opposite directions only in clerical and administrative support occupations in 1980–2005." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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González Ehlinger, Eugenia & Fabian Stephany (2023): Skills or Degree? The Rise of Skill-Based Hiring for AI and Green Jobs. (CESifo working paper 10817), München, 37 S.

Abstract

"For emerging professions, such as jobs in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) or sustainability (green), labor supply does not meet industry demand. In this scenario of labor shortages, our work aims to understand whether employers have started focusing on individual skills rather than on formal qualifications in their recruiting. By analyzing a large time series dataset of around one million online job vacancies between 2019 and 2022 from the UK and drawing on diverse literature on technological change and labor market signalling, we provide evidence that employers have started so-called “skill-based hiring” for AI and green roles, as more flexible hiring practices allow them to increase the available talent pool. In our observation period the demand for AI roles grew twice as much as average labor demand. At the same time, the mention of university education for AI roles declined by 23%, while AI roles advertise five times as many skills as job postings on average. Our analysis also shows that university degrees no longer show an educational premium for AI roles, while for green positions the educational premium persists. In contrast, AI skills have a wage premium of 16%, similar to having a PhD (17%). Our work recommends making use of alternative skill building formats such as apprenticeships, on-the-job training, MOOCs, vocational education and training, micro-certificates, and online bootcamps to use human capital to its full potential and to tackle talent shortages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Griesser, Markus, Martin Gruber-Risak, Benjamin Herr, Leonhard Plank & Laura Vogel (2023): Faire Arbeit in der österreichischen Plattformökonomie? (Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 242), Wien, 94 S.

Abstract

"Die vorliegende Studie liefert eine branchenübergreifende Darstellung der ortsgebundenen Plattformarbeit in Österreich anhand einer Untersuchung von sechs Unternehmen aus vier unterschiedlichen Branchen (Essenslieferung, Lebensmittellieferung, Personentransport, Reinigungsarbeit). Sie entstand im Kontext des internationalen Fairwork-Netzwerks, das im Sinne der Aktionsforschung zur Verbesserung der Arbeitsbedingungen im Bereich der Plattformökonomie beitragen möchte. Dabei werden Unternehmen entlang von fünf Prinzipien (faire Bezahlung, faire Arbeitsbedingungen, faire Verträge, faire Management-Prozesse, faire Mitbestimmung) auf Basis eines multimethodischen Designs bewertet. Die Ergebnisse der Studie unterstreichen die große Heterogenität von ortsgebundener Plattformarbeit und verdeutlichen, dass die Auswirkungen für Beschäftigte stark von den gewählten Geschäftsmodellen der Unternehmen abhängen. Dabei schneiden jene Plattformen am besten ab, die geschäftliche Risiken und Verantwortung nicht einseitig auf Beschäftigte abschieben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Hensvik, Lena & Oskar Nordström Skans (2023): The skill-specific impact of past and projected occupational decline. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 81. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102326

Abstract

"Using population-wide data on a vector of cognitive abilities and productive non-cognitive traits among Swedish male workers, we show that occupational employment growth has been monotonically skill-biased in terms of these intellectual skills, despite a simultaneous (polarizing) decline in middle-wage jobs. Employees in growing low-wage occupations have more of these skills than employees in other low-wage occupations. Conversely, employees in declining, routine-task intensive, mid-wage occupations have comparably little of these skills. Employees in occupations that have grown relative to other occupations with similar wages have more intellectual skills overall but are particularly well-endowed with the non-cognitive trait “Social Maturity” and cognitive abilities in the “Technical” and “Verbal” domains. Projections from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics about future occupational labor demand do not indicate that the relationship between employment growth and skills is about to change in the near future." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Javed, Mohsin (2023): Robots, Natives and Immigrants in US local labor markets. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 85. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102456

Abstract

"I analyze the impact of industrial robots on the employment of natives and immigrants in US local labor markets between 1990 and 2014. The proposed mechanism, through which robot adoption affects the employment of natives and immigrants differentially, is based on two facts: first, robots tend to displace workers based on the task content of occupations, and second, natives and immigrants in the US differ in their task specialization. Therefore, robots should affect their employment unequally. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in robot exposure across US local labor markets over time, I test this mechanism and find that the effect on immigrants is roughly 1.76 times greater than that observed for natives. Specifically, I find that one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment-to-population ratio of natives and immigrants by 0.38 and 0.67 percentage points, respectively. I attribute these results to the fact that immigrants specialize in jobs or tasks at risk of being automated." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Jurkat, Anne, Rainer Klump & Florian Schneider (2023): Robots and Wages: A Meta-Analysis. (EconStor Preprints 274156), Kiel, 72 S.

Abstract

"The empirical evidence on how industrial robots affect employment and wages is very mixed. Our meta-study helps to uncover the potentially true effect of industrial robots on labor market outcomes and to identify drivers of the heterogeneous empirical results. By means of a systematic literature research, we collected 53 papers containing 2143 estimations for the impact of robot adoption on wages. We observe only limited evidence for a publication bias in favor of negative results. The genuine overall effect of industrial robots on wages is close to zero and both statistically and economically insignificant. With regard to the drivers of heterogeneity, we find that more positive results are obtained if primary estimations a) include more countries in their sample, b) control for ICT capital, demographic developments, or tenure, c) focus on employees that remain employed in the same sector, d) consider only non-manufacturing industries, e) are specified in long differences, and f) come from a peer-reviewed journal article. More negative effects, in turn, are reported for primary estimations that are i) weighted, ii) aggregated at country level, iii) control for trade exposure, iv) and consider only manufacturing industries. We also find some evidence for skill-biased technological change. The magnitude of that effect is albeit small and less robust than one might expect in view of skill-biased technological change. We find little evidence for data dependence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Koch, Michael & Ilya Manuylov (2023): Measuring the technological bias of robot adoption and its implications for the aggregate labor share. In: Research Policy, Jg. 52, H. 9. DOI:10.1016/j.respol.2023.104848

Abstract

"This paper investigates the technological bias of robot adoption using a rich panel data set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 25-year period. We apply the production function estimation when productivity is multidimensional to the case of an automating technology, to reveal the Hicks-neutral and labor-augmenting technological change brought about by robot adoption within firms. Our results indicate a causal effect of robots on Hicks-neutral and labor-augmenting components of productivity. The biased technological change turns out to be an important determinant of the decline in the aggregate share of labor in the Spanish manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Kogan, Leonid, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence D. W. Schmidt & Bryan Seegmiller (2023): Technology and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31846), Cambridge, Mass, 93 S.

Abstract

"We develop measures of labor-saving and labor-augmenting technology exposure using textual analysis of patents and job tasks. Using US administrative data, we show that both measures negatively predict earnings growth of individual incumbent workers. While labor-saving technologies predict earnings declines and higher likelihood of job loss for all workers, labor-augmenting technologies primarily predict losses for older or highly-paid workers. However, we find positive effects of labor-augmenting technologies on occupation-level employment and wage bills. A model featuring labor-saving and labor-augmenting technologies with vintage-specific human capital quantitatively matches these patterns. We extend our analysis to predict the effect of AI on earnings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kostøl, Fredrik B. & Elin Svarstad (2023): Trade Unions and the Process of Technological Change. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102386

Abstract

"We investigate how trade unions influence the process of technological change at the workplace level. Using matched employer-employee data, comprising all Norwegian workplaces and working individuals in the period 2000-2014, we exploit exogeneous changes in the tax rules for union members to identify how changes in unionization rates affect the structural composition of occupations within workplaces. Making a distinction between routine and non-routine workers, based on their estimated probabilities of being replaced by automation technologies, we show how labor unions contribute to raising the relative wage of routine workers over non-routine workers. As routine workers on average have lower earnings than non-routine workers, unions thereby contribute to compress wages at the workplace level. The direct implication of this policy is shown to reduce the relative demand for routine workers over non-routine workers in unionized establishments. However, our results also suggest that unions influence the relative demand for routine workers, conditional on relative wages. Our findings thus give some support to bargaining theories where unions force firms off their demand curves." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Lecca, Patrizio, Damiaan Persyn & Stelios Sakkas (2023): Capital-skill complementarity and regional inequality: A spatial general equilibrium analysis. In: Regional Science and Urban Economics, Jg. 102. DOI:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103937

Abstract

"This paper employs a large scale numerical spatial general equilibrium model featuring capital-skill complementarities in production to study the distributional implications of a capital-augmenting technological shift across regions and skills groups. Similarly to the existing literature, we find a negative relationship between the labour income share and the capital labour-ratio. Our counterfactual shows that the effects are quite uneven across skills and regions, benefiting mostly high-skilled workers at the detriment of the low and the medium skilled. This is particularly so in more developed regions compared with less developed ones. We show that the effects stem from regional initial conditions, and in particular the regional capital–labour ratio, trade linkages and unemployment rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Lorenz, Hanno, Fabian Stephany & Jan Kluge (2023): The future of employment revisited: how model selection affects digitization risks. In: Empirica, Jg. 50, H. 2, S. 323-350. DOI:10.1007/s10663-023-09571-2

Abstract

"The uniqueness of human labour is at question in times of smart technologies. As computing power and data available increases, the discussion on technological unemployment reawakens. Prominently, Frey and Osborne (Technol Forecast Soc Change 114:254–280, 2017) estimated that half of US employment must be considered exposed to computerization within the next 20 years; followed by a series of papers expanding the research with information on heterogeneous job-specific tasks within the same jobs diminishing digitization potentials to only smaller fractions of workers at high risk. The main contribution of our work is to show that the diversity of previous findings regarding the degree of digitization is additionally driven by model selection. For our case study, we consult experts in machine learning and industry professionals on the susceptibility to digital technologies in the Austrian labour market. Our results indicate that, while clerical computer-based routine jobs are likely to change in the next decade, professional activities, such as the processing of complex information, are less prone to digital change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Mațcu, Mara, Adriana Zaiț, Rodica Ianole-Călin & Ioana Alexandra Horodnic (2023): Undeclared activities on digital labour platforms: an exploratory study. In: The international journal of sociology and social policy, Jg. 43, H. 7/8, S. 740-755. DOI:10.1108/IJSSP-07-2022-0186

Abstract

"Purpose: This paper aims to explore the prevalence of undeclared activities conducted on digital labour platforms, and then to discuss what policies are likely to be more effective in order to prevent the growth of the informal activities on these platforms. Design/methodology/approach: To depict the profile of the digital worker conducting undeclared activities, the sectors where undeclared activities are more prevalent and the effectiveness of deterrent policies, data are reported from 2019 Special Eurobarometer survey covering the European Union member states and the UK. Findings: The finding is that 13% of undeclared activities are conducted on digital labour platforms. This practice is more common amongst men, those married or remarried, those living in small/middle towns, in sectors such as repairs/renovations, selling goods/services, assistance for dependant persons, gardening and help moving house. The higher the perceived sanction, the lower the likelihood of undertaking undeclared activities on digital labour platforms. Intriguing, a higher risk of detection is associated with a higher likelihood to use digital labour platform for undeclared activities.Practical implications The attitudes toward risk can be interpreted closer to the gaming context, and not to the working environment, looking at platform workers as being involved in a state versus individual game. Policy makers should consider improving the correspondence of laws and regulations between countries and offering operational assistance for suppliers and consumers. Originality/value: This is the first paper to explore the prevalence of undeclared activities conducted on digital labour platforms and to outline the policy measures required to reduce this practice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Mendonça, Pedro, Nadia K. Kougiannou & Ian Clark (2023): Informalization in gig food delivery in the UK: The case of hyper-flexible and precarious work. In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 62, H. 1, S. 60-77. DOI:10.1111/irel.12320

Abstract

"This article examines the process of informalization of work in platform food delivery work in the UK. Drawing on qualitative data, this article provides new analytical insight into what drives individual formal couriers to both supply and demand informalized sub-contracted gig work to undocumented migrants, and how a platform company enables informal work practices through permissive HR practices and technology. In doing so, this article shows how platform companies are enablers of informal labor markets and contribute to the expansion of hyper-precarious working conditions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Miho, Antonela, Martin Borowiecki & Jens Hoj (2023): Digitalisation and the labour market: Worker-level evidence from Slovenia. (OECD Economics Department working papers 1767), Paris, 25 S. DOI:10.1787/d2bb40db-en

Abstract

"This paper provides evidence on the effects of digitalisation on the labour market in Slovenia using a unique dataset of Slovenian workers and firms for the years 2016 to 2020. Results show that at the firm level, digitalisation – measured in terms of ICT investment, is associated with positive and statistically significant effects on employment. However, job growth is not evenly distributed: High-skilled workers and younger workers benefit the most from employment gains, whereas there is little to no employment increases for low- and medium-skilled workers and older workers aged 50 or more. Furthermore, employment effects from digitalisation are strongest for private manufacturing firms. In contrast, ICT investment by state-owned firms is not associated with employment gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Mosseri, Sarah, Ariadne Vromen, Rae Cooper & Elizabeth Hill (2023): Between Frustration and Invigoration: Women Talking about Digital Technology at Work. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 37, H. 6, S. 1681-1698. DOI:10.1177/09500170221091680

Abstract

"This study addresses the dearth of gender analysis within debates about technological innovation and workplace change. Qualitative analysis of 12 focus groups conducted with women in ‘frontline’ and ‘professional’ roles discussing their use and engagement with digital technologies at work reveals contrasting narratives of ‘digital frustration’ and ‘digital invigoration’. To explain these distinct narratives, we synthesise insights from science and technology studies with findings from scholarship on gendered work and labour market inequality to show that these differences are not driven solely by a technology’s form or the degree of automation it ostensibly represents. Instead, women’s narratives reflect an interplay between technological design, employment context and workers’ own voice and agency. These findings challenge assumptions about the totalising and transformative power of work-related technologies, redirecting attention to how social and political contestations over digital technologies inform worker experiences and shape the future of work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Nikolova, Milena, Anthony Lepinteur & Femke Cnossen (2023): Just Another Cog in the Machine? A Worker-Level View of Robotization and Tasks. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16610), Bonn, 44 S.

Abstract

"Using survey data from 20 European countries, we construct novel worker-level indices of routine, abstract, social, and physical tasks across 20 European countries, which we combine with industry-level robotization exposure. Our conceptual framework builds on the insight that robotization simultaneously replaces, creates, and modifies workers' tasks and studies how these forces impact workers' job content. We rely on instrumental variable techniques and show that robotization reduces physically demanding activities. Yet, this reduction in manual work does not coincide with a shift to more challenging and interesting tasks. Instead, robotization makes workers' tasks more routine, while diminishing the opportunities for cognitively challenging work and human contact. The adverse impact of robotization on social tasks is particularly pronounced for highly skilled and educated workers. Our study offers a unique worker-centric viewpoint on the interplay between technology and tasks, highlighting nuances that macro-level indicators overlook. As such, it sheds light on the mechanisms underpinning the impact of robotization on labor markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Petroff, Alisa & Jaime Fierro (2023): Crowd work in STEM-related fields: A window of opportunity from a gender perspective? In: Sociology Compass, Jg. 17, H. 3. DOI:10.1111/soc4.13058

Abstract

"After the Global Financial Crisis (2008) many people found new job opportunities on crowd platforms. The COVID-19 crisis reinforced this trend and virtual work is expected to increase. Although the working conditions of individuals engaged on these platforms is an emerging topic, of research, the existing literature tends to overlook the gendered dimension of the gig economy. Following a quantitative approach, based on the statistical analysis of 444 profiles (platform Freelancer.com in Spain and Argentina), we examine the extent to which the gig economy reproduces gender inequalities such as the underrepresentation of women in STEM-related tasks and the gender pay gap. While the findings reveal lower participation of women than men, this gap is not higher in Argentina than in Spain. Moreover, gender variations in hourly wages are not as marked as expected, and such differences disappear once STEM skill levels are controlled for. Asymmetry in individuals' STEM skill level provides a better explanation than gender of the hourly wage differences. This finding opens a window of opportunity to mitigate the classical gender discrimination that women face in technological fields in traditional labor markets. Finally, the paper identifies some issues concerning the methodological bias entailed by the use of an application programming interface in cyber-research, when analyzing gender inequalities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Polkowska, Dominika & Bartosz Mika (2023): Is it possible to outsmart Uber? Individual working tactics within platform work in Poland. In: European Societies, Jg. 25, H. 4, S. 606-626. DOI:10.1080/14616696.2022.2156578

Abstract

"Platform work in general requires workers to apply specific strategies to stay afloat. In Poland, platform work is a complex system of mutual relations and interdependencies between transnational corporations, national regulators, service providers, intermediaries and platform workers. Based on thirty-one in-depth interviews with Uber drivers in Poland and two expert interviews with fleet partners, this article presents the working strategies adopted by platform workers and looks at how the historical experience of communism may shape responses to twenty-first-century global capitalism. The analysis shows that an adequate remuneration can only be made by adopting the strategy called kombinowanie, a combination of small cheating, fiddling and exploiting loopholes in the law." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Reljic, Jelena, Valeria Cirillo & Dario Guarascio (2023): Regimes of robotization in Europe. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 232. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111320

Abstract

"This work analyses the impact of robots on employment testing for the presence of different robotization regimes. Focusing on European manufacturing industries, we find that robot adoption positively affects total employment. Heterogeneous patterns are detected across both countries and occupational groups, however. The labor-friendly impact of robotization is detected only in core and service-oriented countries and for those at the top of the occupational structure (i.e. managers and technicians). In turn, peripheral countries and manual workers do not seem to benefit at all from robotization." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Reveiu, Adriana, Maria Denisa Vasilescu & Alexandru Banica (2023): Digital divide across the European Union and labour market resilience. In: Regional Studies, Jg. 57, H. 12, S. 2391-2405. DOI:10.1080/00343404.2022.2044465

Abstract

"Using a regional evolutionary perspective and a cross-regional data panel for 278 European Union regions, this study investigates the relationship between regional digital development and labour market resilience. To address a fundamental concern of regional studies, it proposes an analytical framework that assesses digital disparities in the spatial context and provides a nuanced understanding of digital dimensions impacting labour market resilience. The primary labour market outcome, the employment rate, was evaluated to investigate the regional resilience in the Great Recession. A gradient boosting method was used to identify the digital predictors in different resilience stages and to articulate policy-relevant conclusions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Torosyan, Karine, Sicheng Wang, Elizabeth A. Mack, Jenna A. Van Fossen & Nathan Baker (2023): Assessing the impact of technological change on similar occupations: Implications for employment alternatives. In: PLoS ONE, Jg. 18. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0291428

Abstract

"Background: The fast-changing labor market highlights the need for an in-depth understanding of occupational mobility impacted by technological change. However, we lack a multidimensional classification scheme that considers similarities of occupations comprehensively, which prevents us from predicting employment trends and mobility across occupations. This study fills the gap by examining employment trends based on similarities between occupations. Method: We first demonstrated a new method that clusters 756 occupation titles based on knowledge, skills, abilities, education, experience, training, activities, values, and interests. We used the Principal Component Analysis to categorize occupations in the Standard Occupational Classification, which is grouped into a four-level hierarchy. Then, we paired the occupation clusters with the occupational employment projections provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. We analyzed how employment would change and what factors affect the employment changes within occupation groups. Particularly, we specified factors related to technological changes. Results: The results reveal that technological change accounts for significant job losses in some clusters. This poses occupational mobility challenges for workers in these jobs at present. Job losses for nearly 60% of current employment will occur in low-skill, low-wage occupational groups. Meanwhile, many mid-skilled and highly skilled jobs are projected to grow in the next ten years. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate the utility of our occupational classification scheme. Furthermore, it suggests a critical need for skills upgrading and workforce development for workers in declining jobs. Special attention should be paid to vulnerable workers, such as older individuals and minorities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Willcox, Michael & Brittany Feor (2023): Structural Changes in Canadian Employment from 1997 to 2022. (JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology 2023,08), Sevilla, 33 S.

Abstract

"This paper uses the European Jobs Monitor (2017) jobs' approach to examine the structural changes in employment and wages in Canada between 1997 and 2022. Changes in employment and real wages reveals a long-term pattern of upgrading, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis. There is variation in these patterns within the 25-year period including a shift towards higher quality jobs after the financial crisis and evidence of wage polarisation between 2020 and 2022. Employment and wage trends by sector, sex and age were explored. Employment shifted away from manufacturing towards the healthcare and social assistance, professional, scientific, and technical services, and construction sectors since the late 1990s which accelerated after the global financial crisis. The wage gap and difference in employment shares between men and women has narrowed over time, despite recent widening following the pandemic. Canada's aging population has resulted in a growing share of mature workers in the labour market and in core-age workers becoming more concentrated in mid-to-high wage jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Wirth, Tanja & Stefanie Mache (2023): Gesundheitsförderliche Gestaltung von Digitalisierungsprozessen in Organisationen. Wissenschaftlicher Überblick von Anforderungen und Unterstützungsfaktoren für Beschäftigte. In: Arbeitsmedizin, Sozialmedizin, Umweltmedizin, Jg. 58, H. 11, S. 727-735. DOI:10.17147/asu-1-316850

Abstract

"Digitalisierungsprozesse können weitreichende arbeitsorganisatorische Veränderungen mit sich bringen und Einfluss auf die Arbeitsbedingungen von Beschäftigten nehmen. Der vorliegende Übersichtsartikel untersucht, welche Anforderungen und Unterstützungsfaktoren Beschäftigte im Zuge solcher Digitalisierungsprozesse erleben und wie diese gesundheitsförderlich gestaltet werden können. Methoden: Es wurde eine systematische Literaturrecherche in den Datenbanken PubMed und Web of Science durchgeführt. Eingeschlossen wurden deutsch- und englischsprachige Studien ab dem Jahr 2013, die konkrete Digitalisierungsmaßnahmen/-projekte in Unternehmen oder staatlichen Einrichtungen untersuchten und Ergebnisse zu den Auswirkungen der Digitalisierungsprozesse auf die Beschäftigten oder hinsichtlich der Prozessgestaltung beschrieben. Die Ergebnisdarstellung erfolgte als qualitative Zusammenfassung. Ergebnisse: Insgesamt wurden neun Studien in die Übersicht eingeschlossen. Fehlende Ziele, Strategien und Verantwortlichkeiten für die Implementierung der Digitalisierungsmaßnahme, Intransparenz, erhöhte Arbeitsbelastung sowie unzureichende Unterstützung und zeitliche Ressourcen können von Beschäftigten als Anforderung wahrgenommen werden. Umfangreiche Information, aktive Einbindung, Bereitstellung von Schulungsmaßnahmen und Unterstützung auf technischer Ebene und durch die Führung stellen dagegen Unterstützungsfaktoren im Prozess dar. Entsprechend bieten die Vorbereitung und Ausgestaltung des Prozesses, personelle Ressourcen, Unterstützungsmaßnahmen, Partizipation und Kommunikation relevante Möglichkeiten für eine gesundheitsförderliche Gestaltung des Digitalisierungsvorhabens. Schlussfolgerungen: Organisationen sollten mögliche Auswirkungen von Digitalisierungsprozessen für ihre Beschäftigten bereits zu Beginn der Maßnahme berücksichtigen und mitgestalten. Das kann gelingen, indem die Implementierung von Digitalisierungsmaßnahmen als ganzheitlicher Prozess verstanden wird, der ein Change-Management und Change-Leadership erfordert. Schlüsselwörter: Digitalisierung – digitale Transformation – Change-Management – betriebliche Gesundheitsförderung (eingegangen am 31.08.2023, angenommen am 12.10.2023)" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Young, Erin, Judy Wajcman & Laila Sprejer (2023): Mind the gender gap: Inequalities in the emergent professions of artificial intelligence (AI) and data science. In: New Technology, Work and Employment, Jg. 38, H. 3, S. 391-414. DOI:10.1111/ntwe.12278

Abstract

"The emergence of new prestigious professions in data science and artificial intelligence (AI) provide a rare opportunity to explore the gendered dynamics of technical careers as they are being formed. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on gender inequality in digital work by curating and analysing a unique cross‐country data set. We use innovative data science methodology to investigate the nature of work and skills in these under‐researched fields. Our research finds persistent disparities in jobs, qualifications, seniority, industry, attrition and even self‐confidence in these fields. We identify structural inequality in data and AI, with career trajectories of professionals differentiated by gender, reflecting the broader history of computing. Our work is original in illuminating gendering processes within elite high‐tech jobs as they are being configured. Paying attention to these nascent fields is crucial if we are to ensure that women take their rightful place at forefront of technological innovation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Zhang, Lihua, Tian Gan & Jiachen Fan (2023): Do industrial robots affect the labour market? Evidence from China. In: Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, Jg. 31, H. 3, S. 787-817. DOI:10.1111/ecot.12356

Abstract

"The industrial robot is an essential part of modern manufacturing. Using micro-level data, this study investigates the effects of industrial robots on the labour market in China. The results show that the adoption of industrial robots increases firm-level employment by 31.65%. Using the Bartik method, we construct robot penetration as an instrumental variable of robot adoption to tackle endogenous problems. Our results stand up to a series of robustness checks. Moreover, the effects of robots are mainly owing to the expansion of the output scale, increased productivity, and upgraded products. We also find the skill-biased impact of robots and the spillover effect of industrial robots through production networks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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de Boer, Noortje & Nadine Raaphorst (2023): Automation and discretion: explaining the effect of automation on how street-level bureaucrats enforce. In: Public Management Review, Jg. 25, H. 1, S. 42-62. DOI:10.1080/14719037.2021.1937684

Abstract

"A dominant assumption in the street-level bureaucracy literature is that bureaucrats’ discretion is curtailed by automated systems. Drawing on survey and factual data (n = 549) from Dutch inspectors, we test the effect of automation on enforcement style and whether this can be explained by discretion-as-perceived. Our results show that automation (1) increases bureaucrats’ legal and accommodation style; (2) discretion-as-perceived does not mediate this effect; but (3) automation does decrease discretion-as-perceived. The main implication is that we do not find empirical evidence for curtailment and future research should move beyond discretion to understand effects of digital systems on bureaucrats’ behaviour." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2023): Future of Jobs Report 2023. Insight Report. (The future of jobs report), Cologny/Geneva, 295 S.

Abstract

"The Future of Jobs Report 2023 explores how jobs and skills will evolve over the next five years. This fourth edition of the series continues the analysis of employer expectations to provide new insights on how socio-economic and technology trends will shape the workplace of the future." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This study is made of two parts: part A and part B. Part A of the study analyses - through 27 country fiches - the extent to which each EU Member State is prepared for ensuring a socially fair digital transformation in the coming years, based on both its current situation and future prospects. In this analysis, key areas of focus include the labor market, digital skills of the population, social protection as well as cross-cutting dimensions, such as the digitalization level of businesses and the quality of digital infrastructures. Part B of the study reviews - through 30 case studies - some of the main actual and potential uses of digital technologies (including AI) by a country’s public sector for improving the design and the delivery of social benefits and active labor market policies, as well as for complementing the monitoring of poverty and income inequality (the case studies analysed are mainly in Member States but also in a few third countries)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The rapid advances of artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years have led to numerous creative applications in science. Accelerating the productivity of science could be the most economically and socially valuable of all the uses of AI. Utilising AI to accelerate scientific productivity will support the ability of OECD countries to grow, innovate and meet global challenges, from climate change to new contagions. This publication is aimed at a broad readership, including policy makers, the public, and stakeholders in all areas of science. It is written in non-technical language and gathers the perspectives of prominent researchers and practitioners. The book examines various topics, including the current, emerging, and potential future uses of AI in science, where progress is needed to better serve scientific advancements, and changes in scientific productivity. Additionally, it explores measures to expedite the integration of AI into research in developing countries. A distinctive contribution is the book’s examination of policies for AI in science. Policy makers and actors across research systems can do much to deepen AI’s use in science, magnifying its positive effects, while adapting to the fast-changing implications of AI for research governance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2023): OECD Employment Outlook 2023. Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market. (OECD employment outlook), Paris, 264 S. DOI:10.1787/08785bba-en

Abstract

"The 2023 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the latest labour market developments in OECD countries. It focuses, in particular, on the evolution of labour demand and widespread shortages, as well as on wage developments in times of high inflation and related policies. It also takes stock of the current evidence on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labour market. Progress in AI has been such that, in many areas, its outputs have become almost indistinguishable from that of humans, and the landscape continues to change quickly, as recent developments in large language models have shown. This, combined with the falling costs of developing and adopting AI systems, suggests that OECD countries may be on the verge of a technological revolution that could fundamentally change the workplace. While there are many potential benefits from AI, there are also significant risks that need to be urgently addressed, despite the uncertainty about the short- to medium-term evolution of AI. This edition investigates how to get the balance right in addressing the possible negative effects of AI on labour market outcomes while not stifling its benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2023): Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2023. Bridging the Great Green Divide. (Job creation and local economic development 5), Paris, 164 S. DOI:10.1787/21db61c1-en

Abstract

"Die Bekämpfung des Klimawandels und der Umweltzerstörung ist eine der schwierigsten Aufgaben, vor denen die Welt steht. Doch ein Mangel an Arbeitskräften mit den entsprechenden Qualifikationen könnte den grünen Wandel behindern. Die umwelt- und klimapolitischen Herausforderungen unserer Zeit erfordern neue nachhaltige Lösungen und eine erhebliche Verringerung von Emissionen, was sich weltweit auf die industrielle Produktion, den Konsum und die Energieversorgung auswirken wird. Dieser Übergang zu einer nachhaltigen und klimaneutralen Wirtschaft wird zu einer erheblichen Umgestaltung lokaler Arbeitsmärkte führen, da die Arbeitnehmer in andere Berufe und Sektoren wechseln. Der grüne Wandel verstärkt Megatrends wie die Digitalisierung und den demografischen Wandel, die auch die Geografie der Arbeitsplätze und die Arbeitswelt verändern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2022): Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality. In: Econometrica, Jg. 90, H. 5, S. 1973-2016. DOI:10.3982/ECTA19815

Abstract

"We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the U.S. wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from jobs for which they have comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in education wage differentials between 1980 and 2016. The negative relationship between wage changes and task displacement is unaffected when we control for changes in market power, deunionization, and other forms of capital deepening and technology unrelated to automation. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of automation, which incorporate induced changes in industry composition and ripple effects due to task reallocation across different groups. Our quantitative evaluation explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand‐in‐hand with modest productivity gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Albinowski, Maciej & Piotr Lewandowski (2022): The Impact of ICT and Robots on Labour Market Outcomes of Demographic Groups in Europe. (IBS working paper / Instytut Badań Strukturalnych 2022,04), Warszawa, 52 S.

Abstract

"We study the age- and gender-specific labour market effects of two key modern technologies, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and robots, in 14 European countries between 2010 and 2018. To identify the causal effects of technology adoption, we utilise the variation in technology adoption between industries and apply the instrumental variables strategy proposed by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020). We find that the adoption of ICT and robots increased the shares of young and prime-aged women in employment and the wage bills of particular sectors, but reduced the shares of older women and primeaged men. The negative effects were particularly pronounced for older women in cognitive occupations, who had relatively low ICT-related skills; and for young men in routine manual occupations, who experienced substitution by robots. Between 2010 and 2018, the growth in ICT capital played a much larger role than robot adoption in the changes in the labour market outcomes of demographic groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Antón, José-Ignacio, David Klenert, Enrique Fernández-Macías, Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Georgios Alaveras (2022): The labour market impact of robotisation in Europe. In: European journal of industrial relations, Jg. 28, H. 3, S. 317-339. DOI:10.1177/09596801211070801

Abstract

"This paper explores the impact of robot adoption on European regional labour markets between 1995 and 2015. Specifically, we look at the effect of the usage of industrial robots on jobs and employment structures across European regions. Our estimates suggest that the effect of robots on employment tends to be mostly small and negative during the period 1995–2005 and positive during the period 2005–2015 for the majority of model specifications. Regarding the effects on employment structures, we find some evidence of a mildly polarising effect in the first period, but this finding depends to some extent on the model specifications. In sum, this paper shows that the impact of robots on European labour markets in the last couple of decades has been ambiguous and is not robust. The strength and even the sign of this effect are sensitive to the specifications, as well as to the countries and periods analysed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Autor, David, Caroline Chin, Anna M. Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller (2022): New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018. (NBER working paper 30389), Cambridge, Mass, 79 S. DOI:10.3386/w30389

Abstract

"We address three core questions about the hypothesized role of newly emerging job categories ('new work') in counterbalancing the erosive effect of task-displacing automation on labor demand: what is the substantive content of new work; where does it come from; and what effect does it have on labor demand? To address these questions, we construct a novel database spanning eight decades of new job titles linked both to US Census microdata and to patent-based measures of occupations' exposure to labor-augmenting and labor-automating innovations. We find, first, that the majority of current employment is in new job specialties introduced after 1940, but the locus of new work creation has shifted—from middle-paid production and clerical occupations over 1940–1980, to high-paid professional and, secondarily, low-paid services since 1980. Second, new work emerges in response to technological innovations that complement the outputs of occupations and demand shocks that raise occupational demand; conversely, innovations that automate tasks or reduce occupational demand slow new work emergence. Third, although flows of augmentation and automation innovations are positively correlated across occupations, the former boosts occupational labor demand while the latter depresses it. Harnessing shocks to the flow of augmentation and automation innovations spurred by breakthrough innovations two decades earlier, we establish that the effects of augmentation and automation innovations on new work emergence and occupational labor demand are causal. Finally, our results suggest that the demand-eroding effects of automation innovations have intensified in the last four decades while the demand-increasing effects of augmentation innovations have not." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bachmann, Ronald, Myrielle Gonschor, Piotr Lewandowski & Karol Madoń (2022): The impact of robots on labour market transitions in Europe. (Ruhr economic papers 933), Essen, 53 S.

Abstract

"Dieses Papier untersucht die Auswirkungen von Robotern auf Arbeitsmarkttransitionen in 16 europäischen Ländern. Generell reduzieren Roboter Übergänge von der Beschäftigung in die Arbeitslosigkeit und erhöhen die Wahrscheinlichkeit, einen neuen Job zu finden. Arbeitskosten sind eine wichtige Erklärung für die beobachteten Unterschiede zwischen Ländern: In Ländern mit niedrigeren Arbeitskosten zeigt sich ein stärkerer Effekt auf Einstellungen und Trennungen. Diese Auswirkungen sind bei Arbeitskräften in Berufen mit manuellen oder kognitiven Routineaufgaben besonders ausgeprägt, bei Berufen mit nicht-routine kognitiven Aufgaben hingegen vernachlässigbar. Für junge und ältere Arbeitskräfte in Ländern mit niedrigeren Arbeitskosten wirken sich Roboter positiv auf Übergänge aus. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die Einführung von Robotern in den meisten europäischen Ländern zu einem Anstieg der Beschäftigung und einem Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit geführt hat, vor allem durch einen Rückgang der Übergänge in die Arbeitslosigkeit." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Barslund, Mikkel (2022): The dynamics of ICT skills in EU Member States. (Social situation monitor), Luxembourg, 38 S. DOI:10.2767/866469

Abstract

"This study proposes a digital skills intensity index to measure the average number of digital skills used by a worker, based on their International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) occupational classification." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berg, Janine, Francis Green, Laura Nurski & David Spencer (2022): Risks to job quality from digital Technologies: are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge? (Working paper / Bruegel 2022,16), Brussels, 31 S.

Abstract

"We examine the job quality effects of new digital technologies in Europe, using the framework of seven job quality ‘domains’: pay, working time quality, prospects, skills and discretion, work intensity, social environment and physical environment. The theoretical effects from new technology are ambivalent for all domains. Data on robot shocks matched to the European Working Conditions Surveys for 2010 and 2015 is used to generate empirical estimates, which show significant aggregate negative effects in three domains, and a positive effect in one. Some negative effects are enhanced where there is below-median collective bargaining. In light of these analyses, and in order to think through the challenge of regulating the development and implementation of all forms of digital technologies, we review regulations in several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we advance the general hypothesis that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application to the regulation of job quality of national and supra-national data protection legislation. In these ways, the paper extends the debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, to a consideration of job quality more broadly." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berger, Thor & Per Engzell (2022): Industrial automation and intergenerational income mobility in the United States. In: Social science research, Jg. 104. DOI:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102686

Abstract

"This article examines how the automation of jobs has shaped spatial patterns of intergenerational income mobility in the United States over the past three decades. Using data on the spread of industrial robots across 722 local labor markets, we find significantly lower rates of upward mobility in areas more exposed to automation. The erosion of mobility chances is rooted in childhood environments and is particularly evident among males growing up in low-income households. These findings reveal how recent technological advances have contributed to the unequal patterns of economic opportunity in the United States today." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))

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Blasco, Sylvie, Julie Rochut & Bénédicte Rouland (2022): Displaced or Depressed? The Effect of Working in Automatable Jobs on Mental Health. (IZA discussion paper 15434), Bonn, 29 S.

Abstract

"Automation may destroy jobs and change the labour demand structure, thereby potentially impacting workers' health and well-being. Using French individual survey data, we estimate the effects of working in automatable jobs on mental health. Implementing propensity score matching to solve the issue of endogenous exposure to automation risk, we find that workers whose job is at risk of automation in the future are about 4 pp more likely to suffer at present from severe mental disorders. Fear of job loss within the year and fear of qualification or occupational changes seem relevant channels to explain our findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clark, Gordon L. (2022): Agency, sentiment, and risk and uncertainty: fears of job loss in 8 European countries. In: ZFW - Advances in Economic Geography, Jg. 66, H. 1, S. 3-17. DOI:10.1515/zfw-2021-0037

Abstract

"How people assess their prospects and act accordingly is anchored in time and space. But context is only half the story. Human beings share predispositions in favour of the here and now, discounting the future, and risk aversion. This paper provides a framework for integrating cognition with context in economic geography focusing upon agency, resources, and risk and uncertainty in European labour markets. In doing so, it seeks to avoid essentialising the individual while ensuring that the resulting framework does not leave individuals as cyphers of time and place. The framework is illustrated by reference to individual’s assessments of the consequences of technological change for their employment prospects in a multicountry European setting. Implications are drawn for a behavioural economic geography that is policy relevant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsgeographie) ((en))

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Cords, Dario & Klaus Prettner (2022): Technological unemployment revisited: automation in a search and matching framework. In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 74, H. 1, S. 115-135. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpab022

Abstract

"Will automation raise unemployment and what is the role of education in this context? To answer these questions, we propose a search and matching model of the labour market with two skill types and with industrial robots. In line with evidence to date, robots are better substitutes for low-skilled workers than for high-skilled workers. We show that robot adoption leads to rising unemployment and falling wages of low-skilled workers and falling unemployment and rising wages of high-skilled workers. In a calibration to Austrian and German data, we find that robot adoption destroys fewer low-skilled jobs than the number of high-skilled jobs it creates. For Australia and the USA, the reverse holds true. Allowing for endogenous skill acquisition of workers implies positive employment effects of automation in all four countries. Thus, the firm creation mechanism in the search and matching model and skill acquisition are alleviating the adverse effects of automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cresti, Lorenzo, Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo (2022): Technological interdependencies and employment changes in European industries. (LEM working paper series / Laboratory of Economics and Management 2022,5), Pisa, 36 S.

Abstract

"This work addresses the role of inter-sectoral innovation flows, which we frame as technological interdependencies, in determining sectoral employment dynamics. This purpose is achieved through the construction of an indicator capturing the amount of R&D expenditures embodied in the backward linkages of industries. We aim to find out whether having a more integrated production in terms of requiring more technological inputs is related to a lower demand for workers within the sector. We refer to the literature on innovation-employment nexus, inter-sectoral knowledge spillovers and Global Value Chains, building upon structuralist and evolutionary theoretical considerations. We track the flows of embodied technological change between industries taking advantage of the notion of vertically integrated sectors. The relevance of this vertical technological dimension for determining employment dynamics is then tested on a panel data of European industries over the 2008-2014 period. Results show a statistically significant and negative employment impact of the degree of vertical integration in terms of acquisitions of R&D embodied inputs. Combining the role of demand, the double nature of innovation - as product and as process -, together with intersectoral linkages, this work shows that the dependence of a sector from innovation performed by other ones - a proxy for input embodied process innovations - exert a negative effect upon employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Del Giudice, Manlio, Veronica Scuotto, Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Marco Pironti (2022): Humanoid robot adoption and labour productivity: a perspective on ambidextrous product innovation routines. In: The International Journal of Human Resource Management, Jg. 33, H. 6, S. 1098-1124. DOI:10.1080/09585192.2021.1897643

Abstract

"The increasing presence of humanoid robot adoption has generated a change in explorative and exploitative routines. If the explorative routines provoke creativity and critical thinking which are delivered by humans, exploitative routines induce repetitive actions and mimic activities which are executed by humanoids. This has raised the need for a better balance between both routines involving an ambidextrous dynamic process. Here, product innovations play a relevant role in enhancing such balance and labour productivity. If, from the conceptual standpoint, this phenomenon has already been explored, there is still the need to empirically analyse it. We thus offer a meso-analysis of twenty-four countries located in Europe through the lens of the Service Robot Deployment (SRD) Model and the conceptual lens of organizational ambidexterity. By a regression methodology, the results show that humanoid robot adoption is still not affecting labour productivity which, by contrast, is positively and significantly connected with both radically new and marginally modified/unchanged production of innovative routines. Our original contribution, which falls in the field of Human Resources Management and Artificial Intelligence, is that humanoids are not directly impacting labour productivity but indirectly through the generation of both new and marginally modified (or unchanged) routines. This situation persuades senior leaders to achieve a balance between exploitative and explorative product innovation routines." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dhondt, Steven, Karolus O. Kraan & Michiel Bal (2022): Organisation, technological change and skills use over time: A longitudinal study on linked employee surveys. In: New Technology, Work and Employment, Jg. 37, H. 3, S. 343-362. DOI:10.1111/ntwe.12227

Abstract

"The impact of technological change on the content of jobs and accompanying skills is a central topic across disciplines. To date, ample research has directly linked the technological change to shifts in skills use; however, organisational change is rarely considered as an influencing factor. Based on a panel survey, this paper uses a Luhmannian approach to understand the relationship between technological change and organisational context. This theory is tested quantitatively and shows the importance of considering the working environment's nature when studying skills changes. The results show small effects by the technological change on changing skills use but larger effects by changes in the working environment. Recommendations for future research and practical implications are discussed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dolado, Juan J., Etienne Lalé & Helene Turone (2022): Zero-hours Contracts in a Frictional Labour Market. (Discussion Paper / University of Bristol, Department of Economics 22/763), Bristol, 50 S.

Abstract

"We propose a model to evaluate the U.K.'s zero-hours contract (ZHC)- a contract that exempts employers from the requirement to provide any minimum working hours, and allows workers to decline any workload. We find quantitatively mixed welfare effects of ZHCs. On one hand they unlock job creation among firms that face highly volatile business conditions and increase labor force participation of individuals who prefer flexible work schedules. On the other hand, the use of ZHCs by less volatile firms, where jobs are otherwise viable under regular contracts, reduces welfare and likely explains negative employee reactions to this contract." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Duch Brown, Nestor, Estrella Gomez-Herrera, Frank Mueller-Langer & Songul Tolan (2022): Market Power and Artificial Intelligence Work on Online Labour Markets. (JRC digital economy working paper 2021-10), Seville, 40 S.

Abstract

"We investigate three alternative but complementary indicators of market power on one of the largest online labour markets (OLMs) in Europe: (1) the elasticity of labour demand, (2) the elasticity of labour supply, and (3) the concentration of market shares. We explore how these indicators relate to an exogenous change in platform policy. In the middle of the observation period, the platform made it mandatory for employers to signal the rates they were willing to pay as given by the level of experience required to perform a project, i.e., entry, intermediate or expert level. We find a positive labour supply elasticity ranging between 0.06 and 0.15, which is higher for expert-level projects. We also find that the labour demand elasticity increased while the labour supply elasticity decreased after the policy change. Based on this, we argue that market-designing platform providers can influence the labour demand and supply elasticities on OLMs with the terms and conditions they set for the platform. We also explore the demand for and supply of AI-related labour on the OLM under study. We provide evidence for a significantly higher demand for AI-related labour (ranging from +1.4% to +4.1%) and a significantly lower supply of AI-related labour (ranging from -6.8% to -1.6%) than for other types of labour. We also find that workers on AI projects receive 3.0%-3.2% higher wages than workers on non-AI projects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Martina Bisello (2022): A Comprehensive Taxonomy of Tasks for Assessing the Impact of New Technologies on Work. In: Social indicators research, Jg. 159, H. 2, S. 821-841. DOI:10.1007/s11205-021-02768-7

Abstract

"In recent years, the increasing concern about the labour market implications of technological change has led economists to look in more detail at the structure of work content and job tasks. Incorporating insights from other traditions of task analysis, in particular from the labour process approach, as well as from recent research on skills, work organisation and occupational change, in this paper we propose a comprehensive and detailed taxonomy of tasks. Going beyond existing broad classifications, our taxonomy aims at connecting the substantive content of work with its organisational context by answering two key questions: what do people do at work and how do they do their work? For illustrative purposes, we show how our approach allows a better understanding of the impact of new technologies on work, by accounting for relevant ongoing transformations such as the diffusion of artificial intelligence and the unfolding of digital labour platforms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Haapanala, Henri, Ive Marx & Zachary Parolin (2022): Robots and Unions: The Moderating Effect of Organised Labour on Technological Unemployment. (IZA discussion paper 15080), Bonn, 31 S.

Abstract

"We analyse the moderating effect of trade unions on industrial employment and unemployment in countries facing exposure to industrial robots. Applying random effects within-between regression to a pseudo-panel of observations from 28 advanced democracies over 1998-2019, we find that stronger trade unions in a country are associated with a greater decline in the industry sector employment of young and low-educated workers. We also show that the unemployment rates for low-educated workers remain constant in strongly unionised countries with increasing exposure to robots, whereas in weakly unionised countries, low-educated unemployment declines with robot exposure but from a higher starting point. Our results point to unions exacerbating the insider-outsider effects of technological change within the industrial sector, which however is not fully passed on to unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Handel, Michael J. (2022): Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation. In: Monthly labor review H. July. DOI:10.21916/mlr.2022.21

Abstract

"Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have led to substantial concern that large-scale job losses are imminent. Selected occupations are often cited as illustrations of technological displacement that is or will become a more general problem, but these discussions are often impressionistic. This article compiles a list of specific occupations cited in the automation literature and examines the occupations’ employment trends since 1999 and projected employment to 2029. There is little support in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data or projections for the idea of a general acceleration of job loss or a structural break with trends pre-dating the AI revolution with respect to the occupations cited as examples. Offsetting factors and other limitations of the automation thesis are discussed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hirvonen, Johannes, Aapo Stenhammar & Joonas Tuhkuri (2022): New Evidence on the Effect of Technology on Employment and Skill Demand. (ETLA working papers 93), Helsinki, 133 S.

Abstract

"We present novel evidence on the effects of advanced technologies on employment, skill demand, and firm performance. The main finding is that advanced technologies led to increases in employment and no change in skill composition. Our main research design focuses on a technology subsidy program in Finland that induced sharp increases in technology investment in manufacturing firms. Our data directly measure multiple technologies and skills and track firms and workers over time. We demonstrate novel text analysis and machine learning methods to perform matching and to measure specific technological changes. To explain our findings, we outline a theoretical framework that contrasts two types of technological change: process versus product. We document that firms used new technologies to produce new types of output rather than replace workers with technologies within the same type of production. The results contrast with the ideas that technologies necessarily replace workers or are skill biased." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hornuf, Lars & Daniel Vrankar (2022): Hourly Wages in Crowdworking: A Meta-Analysis. (CESifo working paper 9540), München, 38 S.

Abstract

"In the past decade, crowdworking on online labor market platforms has become the main source of income for a growing number of people worldwide. This development has led to increasing political and scientific interest in the wages that people can earn on such platforms. In this article, we extend the literature based on a single platform, region, or category of crowdworking by conducting a meta-analysis of the prevalent hourly wages. After a systematic and rigorous literature search, we consider 20 primary empirical studies, including 104 wages and 76,282 data points from 22 platforms, eight different countries, and a time span of 12 years. We find that, on average, microwork results in an hourly wage of less than $6. This wage is significantly lower than the mean wage of online freelancers, which is roughly three times higher. We find that hourly wages accounting for unpaid work, such as searching for tasks and communicating with requesters, tend to be significantly lower than wages not considering unpaid work. Legislators and researchers evaluating wages in crowdworking should be aware of this bias when assessing hourly wages, given that the majority of the literature does not account for the effect of unpaid work time on crowdworking wages. To foster the comparability of different research results, we suggest that scholars consider a wage malus to account for unpaid work. Finally, we find that hourly wages collected through surveys tend to be lower than wages collected via browser plugins or other technical data collection methods." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hyötyläinen, Mika (2022): Labour-saving technology and advanced marginality – A study of unemployed workers' experiences of displacement in Finland. In: Critical Social Policy, Jg. 42, H. 2, S. 285-305. DOI:10.1177/02610183211024122

Abstract

"The article explores the experiences of people displaced from work by the introduction of labour-saving technology in Finland. Interviews with 13 unemployed individuals are used as data. The study is underpinned by a Marxist interpretation of potentially emancipatory technology under capitalism reduced to an instrument for reorganizing skilled workers into an exploitable, precarious cadre of surplus and abstract labour. Loïc Wacquant’s thesis on advanced marginality is used as a theoretical framework to unpack and understand the little-studied experience of being displaced from work by technology. The interviewees share a sense of growing alienation and social exclusion. Feeding these experiences are capricious changes in skill-demands and deskilling under automation and robotisation of work. The experiences are exacerbated by digitalised, vertiginous and isolating job-seeking and employment services that cast responsibility on the unemployed individual. While the participants of this study were not on the brink of acute or extreme socio-economic marginalisation, their experiences are rooted in the very same social, economic and political dynamics as advanced marginality. The findings of the study help anticipate the risk of advancing marginality faced by displaced workers, if social policy reforms are not carried out in the short term. In the long term, the findings support the argument that studies on labour-saving technologies and unemployment pay closer attention to the particular role of technology under capitalism." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jaiswal, Akanksha, C. Joe Arun & Arup Varma (2022): Rebooting employees: upskilling for artificial intelligence in multinational corporations. In: The International Journal of Human Resource Management, Jg. 33, H. 6, S. 1179-1208. DOI:10.1080/09585192.2021.1891114

Abstract

"Proponents of artificial intelligence (AI) have envisaged a scenario wherein intelligent machines would execute routine tasks performed by humans, thus, relieving them to engage in creative pursuits. While there is widespread fear of corresponding job losses, organizational think tanks vouch for the synergistic culmination of human–machine competencies. Using the dynamic skill, neo-human capital and AI job replacement theories, we contend that the introduction and adoption of AI calls for employees to upskill themselves. To determine the key skills deemed critical for the upskilling of employees, we interviewed 20 experienced professionals in multinational corporations (MNCs) in the information technology sector in India. Deploying Gioia’s methodology for qualitative analysis, our investigation revealed five critical skills for employee upskilling: data analysis, digital, complex cognitive, decision making and continuous learning skills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jestl, Stefan (2022): Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology. The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets. (WIIW working paper 215), Wien, 44 S.

Abstract

"This paper explores the effects of industrial robots and information and communication technology (ICT) on regional employment in EU countries. The empirical analysis relies on a harmonised comprehensive regional dataset, which combines business statistics and national and regional accounts data. This rich dataset enables us to provide detailed insights into the employment effects of automation and computerisation in EU regions for the period 2001-2016. The results suggest relatively weak effects on regional total employment dynamics. However, employment effects differ between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. Industrial robots show negative employment effects in local manufacturing industries, but positive employment effects in local non-manufacturing industries. While the negative effect is concentrated in particular local manufacturing industries, the positive effect operates in local service industries. IT investments show positive employment effects only in local manufacturing industries, while CT investments are shown to be irrelevant for employment dynamics. In contrast, software and database investments have had a predominantly negative impact on local employment in both local manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kapetaniou, Chrystalla & Christopher A. Pissarides (2022): Productive Robots and Industrial Employment: The Role of National Innovation Systems. (IZA discussion paper 15056), Bonn, 55 S.

Abstract

"In a model with robots, and automatable and complementary human tasks, we examine robot-labour substitutions and show how it they are influenced by a country's "innovation system". Substitution depends on demand and production elasticities, and other factors influenced by the innovation system. Making use of World Economic Forum data we estimate the relationship for thirteen countries and find that countries with poor innovation capabilities substitute robots for workers much more than countries with richer innovation capabilities, which generally complement them. In transport equipment and non-manufacturing robots and workers are stronger substitutes than in other manufacturing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kerst, Christian, Insa Weilage & Birgit Gehrke (2022): Bildung und Qualifikation als Grundlage der technologischen Leistungsfähigkeit Deutschlands 2022. (Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 2022-1), Berlin, 65 S.

Abstract

"Die Studie zu Bildung und Qualifikation wird 2022 als Kurzstudie vorgelegt. Sie enthält wie in den Vorjahren die zentralen Indikatoren zur Qualifikationsstruktur der Erwerbstätigen im internationalen Vergleich. Erneut zeigt sich, dass der Anteil der Erwerbstätigen mit formal hohen (tertiären) Qualifikationen (ISCED 5 bis 8) in Deutschland deutlich niedriger ausfällt als in den OECD-Vergleichsländern. Dafür ist in Deutschland der Anteil qualitativ hochwertiger Abschlüsse mit berufsbildender Komponente im mittleren Qualifikationsbereiche (ISCED 3 und 4) besonders hoch. Die Studie enthält im zweiten Teil eine umfassende Darstellung hochschulstatistischer Kennzahlen zur Studiennachfrage und zur Entwicklung der Absolventenzahlen. Ein besonderes Augenmerk liegt dabei erneut auf der insbesondere in den weiterführenden Studiengängen Master und Promotion hohen Bildungsbeteiligung internationaler Studierender. Hier werden mit der zurückgehenden internationalen Studiennachfrage erste Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie erkennbar. Im dritten Teil der Studie werden Daten zur individuellen Teilnahme an Weiterbildung sowie zu weiterbildungsaktiven Betrieben berichtet." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Koch, Michael & Ilya Manuylov (2022): Measuring the Technological Bias of Robot Adoption and its Implications for the Aggregate Labor Share. (University Aarhus. Economics working paper 2022,01), Aarhus, 26 S.

Abstract

"This paper investigates the technological bias of robot adoption using a rich panel data set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 25-year period. We apply the production function estimation when productivity is multidimensional to the case of an automating technology, to reveal the Hicks-neutral and labor-augmenting technological change brought about by robot adoption within firms. Our results indicate a causal effect of robots on Hicks-neutral and labor-augmenting components of productivity. The biased technological change turns out to be an important determinant of the decline in the aggregate share of labor in the Spanish manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kovacs, Oliver (2022): Inclusive Industry 4.0 in Europe—Japanese Lessons on Socially Responsible Industry 4.0. In: Social Sciences, Jg. 11, H. 1. DOI:10.3390/socsci11010029

Abstract

"This contribution addresses the puzzle of whether the anti-inclusive character of Industry 4.0 development can be tailored toward a socially more responsible path (smart automation). In doing so, the paper first underlines the crucial importance of a governance being capable of fostering inclusive growth by deciphering the nexus between flaring populism and non-inclusive growth. It then turns to the case of Japanese digitalization and Industry 4.0 development to show that adding a social innovation-dimension (smart automation) to Industry 4.0 is not impossible in supporting inclusive growth in Europe." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lindner, Attila, Balazs Murakozy, Balázs Reizer & Ragnhild Schreiner (2022): Firm-level technological change and skill demand. (CEP discussion paper 1857), London, 136 S.

Abstract

"We quantify the contribution of firm-level technological change to skill demand and aggregate inequality in the presence of imperfect competition in the labor market. We show that skill-biased technological change increases both the firm-level skill ratio and the skill premium, while other shocks (e.g. firm-specific output demand shocks) cannot explain the increase in both outcomes. We exploit administrative data and a large survey measuring a broad class of firm-level technological changes from Hungary and Norway. We estimate that the aggregate college premium increases by 6.1% in Norway and by 13.8% in Hungary as a result of the skill bias in technological change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Marczak, Martyna, Thomas Beissinger & Franziska Brall (2022): Technical Change, Task Allocation, and Labor Unions. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 15632), Bonn, 48 S.

Abstract

"We propose a novel framework that integrates the "task approach" for a more precise production modeling into the search-and-matching model with low- and high-skilled workers, and wage setting by labor unions. We establish the relationship between task reallocation and changes in wage pressure, and examine how skill- biased technical change (SBTC) affects the task composition, wages of both skill groups, and unemployment. In contrast to the canonical model with a fixed task allocation, low-skilled workers may be harmed in terms of either lower wages or higher unemployment depending on the relative task-related productivity profile of both worker types. We calibrate the model to the US and German data for the periods 1995-2005 and 2010-2017. The simulated effects of SBTC on low-skilled unemployment are largely consistent with observed developments. For example, US low-skilled unemployment increases due to SBTC in the earlier period and decreases after 2010." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Miguel, Pablo Sanz De, Tania Bazzani & Juan Arasanz (2022): Decommodifying Platform Work through an EU Definition of Worker. In: Glocalism: Journal of Culture, Politics and Innovation H. 3, S. 1-21. DOI:10.12893/gjcpi.2022.3.1

Abstract

"This article aims to highlight the process of recommodification characterizing the new forms of work today, in particular gig economy jobs, and the possible solutions that can be suggested to guarantee adequate protection. After having explained the importance of labour law to decommodify the new forms of work, in particular platform work, this article explains the different ways to legally classify them at the national level and the relevant contribution an EU definition of worker could bring to address the problem of recommodification. In doing this, the article also mentions some relevant aspects of the EU proposal for a directive in the field." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Mondolo, Jasmine (2022): The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature. In: Journal of Economic Surveys, Jg. 36, H. 4, S. 1027-1068. DOI:10.1111/joes.12469

Abstract

"The role played by technological change in employment trends has long been debated and investigated, but the evidence has proven to be inconclusive. This paper aims to shed light on this topic by critically reviewing a broad and heterogeneous body of literature on the employment implications of technical progress. To this purpose, it briefly discusses the main theories and models that underpin the empirical analysis and reviews the literature following two main criteria, namely, the proxy for technological change and the level of analysis. It also accounts for the effect of technical progress on both overall employment and on distinct occupational, educational and demographic groups. Particular attention is devoted to the results of some very recent studies that attempt to unfold the impact of complex automation technologies, especially robots, and to provide a preliminary account of the evolution, distribution, challenges and potential of Artificial Intelligence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Ocampo, Sergio (2022): A Task-Based Theory of Occupations with Multidimensional Heterogeneity. (Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) working paper series 2022-02), London, Ontario, 64 S.

Abstract

"I develop an assignment model of occupations with multidimensional heterogeneity in production tasks and worker skills. Tasks are distributed continuously in the skill space, whereas workers have a discrete distribution with a finite number of types. Occupations arise endogenously as bundles of tasks optimally assigned to a type of worker. The model allows us to study how occupations respond to changes in the economic environment, making it useful for analyzing the implications of automation, skill-biased technical change, offshoring, and worker training. Using the model, I characterize how wages, the marginal product of workers, the substitutability between worker types, and the labor share depend on the assignment of tasks to workers. I introduce automation as the choice of the optimal size and location of a mass of identical robots in the task space. Automation displaces workers by replacing them in the performance of tasks, generating a cascading effect on other workers as the boundaries of occupations are redrawn." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pulkka, Ville-Veikko & Miska Simanainen (2022): Socio-Economic Performance of European Welfare States in Technology-Induced Employment Scenarios. In: Journal of Social Policy, Jg. 51, H. 4, S. 920-944. DOI:10.1017/S0047279421000295

Abstract

"Studies assessing engineering bottlenecks of automation (Frey and Osborne, Reference Frey and Osborne2013, Reference Frey and Osborne2017; Arntz et al., Reference Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn2016; Nedelkoska and Quintini, Reference Nedelkoska and Quintini2018) have suggested that digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) may displace a considerable number of work tasks in the coming decades. While many authors (e.g. Brynjolfsson and McAfee, Reference Brynjolfsson and McAfee2014; Ford, Reference Ford2015) have noted that the digital transformation may also have substantial socio-economic implications for welfare states, researchers have not studied the question in much detail. Very little is currently known about the implications of divergent employment scenarios for government budgets, poverty or economic inequality. The main purpose of this paper is to fill this knowledge gap by comparing the socio-economic indicators in the European Union member states and the United Kingdom (henceforth the EU-28) in two ideal-type scenarios that reflect the divided expert view on long-term employment development. The pessimistic scenario assumes technological mass unemployment to constitute a permanent problem over the next two decades; while the optimistic one illustrates a future in which unemployment has been reduced by half, due to positive spillover effects deriving from the technological change." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ricci, Andrea, Claudia Vittori, Francesco Quartaro & Stefano Dughera (2022): Technological externalities and wages: new evidence from Italian provinces. (INAPP working paper / Istituto nazionale per l’analisi delle politiche pubbliche 85), Rom, 23 S.

Abstract

"In this paper, we investigate the relationship between local wages and the internal structure of the regional knowledge base. The purpose is to assess if the workers' compensations are related to the peculiarities of the technological space where they supply their labor services. To test this hypothesis, we apply the concepts of related and unrelated variety to the firms' patenting activity as to assess if wages grow more in a framework of 'knowledge deepening' (generated by firms innovating in related technological domains) or in one of 'knowledge widening' (generated by firms innovating in unrelated technological domains)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Sandher, Jeevun (2022): No Country for Non-Graduate Men: The Childish Roots of Adult Job Tasks & Employment. (SocArXiv papers), 79 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/sh58c

Abstract

"Male employment has declined across advanced economies as non-graduate men found it increasingly difficult to gain jobs in the wake of technological change and globalisation. This has led to rising earnings and, subsequently, income inequality. Female employment, by contrast, has risen in this period. Previous work has shown changing job task demands explain this pattern - with declining manual tasks penalising men and rising non-routine tasks benefiting women. In this paper, I test whether gendered differences in childhood & adolescent cognitive, social, perseverance, and emotional-health skills can help explain why men are less adept at non-routine tasks using long-term longitudinal data from the United Kingdom. I find that childhood & adolescent skills have a significant effect on adult job tasks and employment outcomes. Greater cognitive and childhood emotional-health skills lead to people performing more high-pay analytical and interactive job tasks as adults. Greater cognitive and non-cognitive skills are also associated with higher adult employment levels. Indicative calculations show that gendered differences in these childhood and adolescent skills explain an economically significant decline in the analytical and interactive job tasks performed by non-graduate men as well as their employment rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schulze-Cleven, Tobias & Todd E. Vachon (2022): The Future of Work and Workers: Insights from US Labour Studies. In: Global Labour Journal, Jg. 19, H. 1, S. 122-134. DOI:10.15173/glj.v13i1.5068

Abstract

"We have argued in this essay that it is during times of uncertainty such as this that ideas are most important. Ideas are the basis upon which actors can treat uncertainty as risk and engage in rational problem-solving. How can we best ensure that workers are protected and equity is centred in the process of institutional renewal? Drawing from a labour studies perspective on the future of work and workers, we have highlighted several crucial considerations and principles that have been missing from most contemporary US-based discussions and that we suspect can travel beyond the borders of the United States. Together, we believe, these insights can help guide attempts to build a future in which work is rewarding and in which workers have a voice about how it is conducted. Collaborative research efforts and partnerships between academics and practitioners to explore these elements and others are one way through which shared visions can be developed and the seeds for a more just and equitable future may be planted. We look forward to participating in such conversations in the days and years ahead and encourage you to join as well." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Squicciarini, Mariagrazia & Jacopo Staccioli (2022): Labour-saving technologies and employment levels. Are robots really making workers redundant? (OECD science, technology and industry policy papers 124), Paris, 36 S. DOI:10.1787/9ce86ca5-en

Abstract

"This paper exploits natural language processing techniques to detect explicit labour-saving goals in inventive efforts in robotics and assess their relevance for different occupational profiles and the impact on employment levels. The analysis relies on patents published by the European Patent Office between 1978 and 2019 and firm-level data from ORBIS® IP. It investigates innovative actors engaged in labour-saving technologies and their economic environment (identity, location, industry), and identifies technological fields and associated occupations which are particularly exposed to them. Labour-saving patents are concentrated in Japan, the United States, and Italy, and seem to affect low-skilled and blue-collar jobs, along with highly cognitive and specialised professions. A preliminary analysis does not find an appreciable negative effect on employment shares in OECD countries over the past decade, but further research to econometrically investigate the relationship between labour-saving technological developments and employment would be helpful." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Terry, Esme, Abigail Marks, Arek Dakessian & Dimitris Christopoulos (2022): Emotional Labour and the Autonomy of Dependent Self-Employed Workers: The Limitations of Digital Managerial Control in the Home Credit Sector. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 36, H. 4, S. 665-682. DOI:10.1177/0950017020979504

Abstract

"Changes to the labour process in the home credit sector have exposed the industry’s agency workforce to increased levels of digital managerial control through the introduction of lending applications and algorithmic decision-making techniques. This article highlights the heterogeneous nature of the impact of digitalisation on the labour process and worker autonomy – specifically, in terms of workers’ engagement in unquantified emotional labour. By considering the limitations of digital control in relation to qualitative elements of the labour process, it becomes evident that emotional labour has the scope to be a source of autonomy for dependent self-employed workers when set against a backdrop of heightened digital control. This article therefore contributes to ongoing labour process debates surrounding digitalisation, quantified workers and digital managerial control." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Yakymovych, Yaroslav (2022): Consequences of job loss for routine workers. (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy 2022,15), Uppsala, 39 S.

Abstract

"Routine-biased technological change has led to the worsening of labour market prospects for workers in exposed occupations as their work has increasingly been done by machines. Routine workers who have lost their jobs in mass displacement events are likely to have been a particularly affected group, due to potential difficulties in finding new employment that matches their skills and experience. In this study, the annual earnings, employment, monthly wages and days of unemployment of displaced routine workers are compared to those of displaced non-routine workers using Swedish matched employer-employee data. The results show substantial routine-occupation penalties among displaced workers, which persist in the medium to long term. Compared to displaced non-routine workers, displaced routine workers lose an additional year's worth of pre-displacement earnings and spend 180 more days in unemployment. A possible channel for this effect is the loss of occupation- and industry-specific human capital, as routine workers are unable to find jobs similar to those they had before becoming displaced. I do not find evidence that switching to a non-routine occupation reduces routine workers' losses, but rather there are indications that switchers do worse in the short-to-medium run. The findings suggest that the effects of labour-replacing technological change on the most exposed individuals can be severe and difficult to ameliorate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Zuazu-Bermejo, Izaskun (2022): Robots and women in manufacturing employment. (ifso working paper 19), Duisburg: University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socio-Economics (ifso), 51 S.

Abstract

"Automation transforms the combination of tasks performed by machines and humans, and reshapes existing labour markets by replacing jobs and creating new ones. The implications of these transformations are likely to differ by gender as women and men concentrate in different tasks and jobs. This article argues that a gender-biased technological change framework will advance our understanding of the differentiated role of robots in labour market outcomes of women and men. The article empirically analyses the impact of industrial robots in gender segregation and employment levels of women and men using an industry-level disaggregated panel dataset of 11 industries in 14 developed and developing countries during 1993-2015. Within fixed-effects and instrumental variables estimates suggest that robotization increases the share of women in manufacturing employment. However, this impact hinges upon female labour force participation. As female labour participation rate increases, robots are associated with a negative effect of robotization in the female share of manufacturing employment. Results also show that the impact of robotization varies at different levels of economic development. The estimates point to a reducing employment effects of robotization, although the effect for women is larger. The results are robust to a variety of various sensitivity checks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2021): Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality. (NBER working paper 28920), Cambridge, MA, 106 S. DOI:10.3386/w28920

Abstract

"We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the US wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by the relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across a number of industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from employment opportunities for which they have comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in education differentials between 1980 and 2016. Our task displacement variable captures the effects of automation technologies (and to a lesser degree offshoring) rather than those of rising market power, markups or deunionization, which themselves do not appear to play a major role in US wage inequality. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of task displacement (which include induced changes in industry composition and ripple effects as tasks are reallocated across different groups). Our quantitative evaluation based on this methodology explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand-in-hand with modest productivity gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))