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Fernández-Macías, Enrique, Martina Bisello, Eleonora Peruffo & Riccardo Rinaldi (2023): Routinization of work processes, de-routinization of job structures. In: Socio-economic review, Jg. 21, H. 3, S. 1773-1794. DOI:10.1093/ser/mwac044

Abstract

"This article investigates changes in routine tasks and computer use in European jobs in the period 1995–2015, putting them in the context of the debates on the future of work and the impact of automation. Digital technologies not only affect employment shifts but also shape work organization. A shift-share analysis combining European Working Conditions Survey and European Labour Force Survey data assesses to what extent recent changes in tasks are the result of changes in the structure of employment (shifts in employment across jobs) or changes in the content of work itself (transformation in the task contents and methods within jobs). The results suggest contrasting trends between observed changes in tasks measures within jobs and compositional shifts in employment for routine tasks indexes. Employment structures are de-routinizing while work itself is becoming more routine. These results seem also related to the increased use of computers at work during the same period." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Garin, Andrew, Emilie Jackson, Dmitri K. Koustas & Alicia Miller (2023): The Evolution of Platform Gig Work, 2012-2021. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31273), Cambridge, Mass, 72 S.

Abstract

"We document the dynamics of tax-based measures of work mediated by online platforms from 2012 through 2021. We present a measurement framework to account for high reporting thresholds on some information returns using returns from states with lower reporting thresholds to provide a more complete estimate of total platform work. Updating data through 2021 allows us to provide the most comprehensive estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic on tax filing behavior. We find that the number of workers receiving information returns not subject to the 1099-K gap increased dramatically during the pandemic, with least 5 million individuals receiving information returns from platform gig work by 2021, nearly all from transportation platforms. We present evidence that the availability of expanded unemployment insurance benefits resulted in many individuals who were platform workers in 2019 not reporting any self-employment income in 2020-2021. At the same time, other services done by platform gig workers increased dramatically by at least 3.1 million people between 2019 and 2021. Interestingly, the broader 1099-contract economy follows a different trend, declining during this period, suggesting the challenges for tax administration are largely concentrated among platform gig workers, at least through 2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ghosh, Pallab & Zexuan Liu (2023): The puzzle of changes in employment and wages in routine task-intensive occupations. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 65, H. 4, S. 1965-1980. DOI:10.1007/s00181-023-02394-x

Abstract

"Autor and Dorn (Am Econ Rev 103(5):1553–1597, 2013) provide an explanation of the polarization of US employment and wages for the period 1980–2005. Using the 1980 Census and 2005 American Community Survey data, this study replicates the estimation results of Autor and Dorn (2013) for employment polarization in all major occupation groups and qualitatively matches the wage polarization results. Also, we investigate the puzzle of why employment and wages changed in opposite directions only in clerical and administrative support occupations in 1980–2005." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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González Ehlinger, Eugenia & Fabian Stephany (2023): Skills or Degree? The Rise of Skill-Based Hiring for AI and Green Jobs. (CESifo working paper 10817), München, 37 S.

Abstract

"For emerging professions, such as jobs in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) or sustainability (green), labor supply does not meet industry demand. In this scenario of labor shortages, our work aims to understand whether employers have started focusing on individual skills rather than on formal qualifications in their recruiting. By analyzing a large time series dataset of around one million online job vacancies between 2019 and 2022 from the UK and drawing on diverse literature on technological change and labor market signalling, we provide evidence that employers have started so-called “skill-based hiring” for AI and green roles, as more flexible hiring practices allow them to increase the available talent pool. In our observation period the demand for AI roles grew twice as much as average labor demand. At the same time, the mention of university education for AI roles declined by 23%, while AI roles advertise five times as many skills as job postings on average. Our analysis also shows that university degrees no longer show an educational premium for AI roles, while for green positions the educational premium persists. In contrast, AI skills have a wage premium of 16%, similar to having a PhD (17%). Our work recommends making use of alternative skill building formats such as apprenticeships, on-the-job training, MOOCs, vocational education and training, micro-certificates, and online bootcamps to use human capital to its full potential and to tackle talent shortages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Griesser, Markus, Martin Gruber-Risak, Benjamin Herr, Leonhard Plank & Laura Vogel (2023): Faire Arbeit in der österreichischen Plattformökonomie? (Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 242), Wien, 94 S.

Abstract

"Die vorliegende Studie liefert eine branchenübergreifende Darstellung der ortsgebundenen Plattformarbeit in Österreich anhand einer Untersuchung von sechs Unternehmen aus vier unterschiedlichen Branchen (Essenslieferung, Lebensmittellieferung, Personentransport, Reinigungsarbeit). Sie entstand im Kontext des internationalen Fairwork-Netzwerks, das im Sinne der Aktionsforschung zur Verbesserung der Arbeitsbedingungen im Bereich der Plattformökonomie beitragen möchte. Dabei werden Unternehmen entlang von fünf Prinzipien (faire Bezahlung, faire Arbeitsbedingungen, faire Verträge, faire Management-Prozesse, faire Mitbestimmung) auf Basis eines multimethodischen Designs bewertet. Die Ergebnisse der Studie unterstreichen die große Heterogenität von ortsgebundener Plattformarbeit und verdeutlichen, dass die Auswirkungen für Beschäftigte stark von den gewählten Geschäftsmodellen der Unternehmen abhängen. Dabei schneiden jene Plattformen am besten ab, die geschäftliche Risiken und Verantwortung nicht einseitig auf Beschäftigte abschieben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Hensvik, Lena & Oskar Nordström Skans (2023): The skill-specific impact of past and projected occupational decline. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 81. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102326

Abstract

"Using population-wide data on a vector of cognitive abilities and productive non-cognitive traits among Swedish male workers, we show that occupational employment growth has been monotonically skill-biased in terms of these intellectual skills, despite a simultaneous (polarizing) decline in middle-wage jobs. Employees in growing low-wage occupations have more of these skills than employees in other low-wage occupations. Conversely, employees in declining, routine-task intensive, mid-wage occupations have comparably little of these skills. Employees in occupations that have grown relative to other occupations with similar wages have more intellectual skills overall but are particularly well-endowed with the non-cognitive trait “Social Maturity” and cognitive abilities in the “Technical” and “Verbal” domains. Projections from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics about future occupational labor demand do not indicate that the relationship between employment growth and skills is about to change in the near future." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Javed, Mohsin (2023): Robots, Natives and Immigrants in US local labor markets. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 85. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102456

Abstract

"I analyze the impact of industrial robots on the employment of natives and immigrants in US local labor markets between 1990 and 2014. The proposed mechanism, through which robot adoption affects the employment of natives and immigrants differentially, is based on two facts: first, robots tend to displace workers based on the task content of occupations, and second, natives and immigrants in the US differ in their task specialization. Therefore, robots should affect their employment unequally. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in robot exposure across US local labor markets over time, I test this mechanism and find that the effect on immigrants is roughly 1.76 times greater than that observed for natives. Specifically, I find that one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment-to-population ratio of natives and immigrants by 0.38 and 0.67 percentage points, respectively. I attribute these results to the fact that immigrants specialize in jobs or tasks at risk of being automated." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Jurkat, Anne, Rainer Klump & Florian Schneider (2023): Robots and Wages: A Meta-Analysis. (EconStor Preprints 274156), Kiel, 72 S.

Abstract

"The empirical evidence on how industrial robots affect employment and wages is very mixed. Our meta-study helps to uncover the potentially true effect of industrial robots on labor market outcomes and to identify drivers of the heterogeneous empirical results. By means of a systematic literature research, we collected 53 papers containing 2143 estimations for the impact of robot adoption on wages. We observe only limited evidence for a publication bias in favor of negative results. The genuine overall effect of industrial robots on wages is close to zero and both statistically and economically insignificant. With regard to the drivers of heterogeneity, we find that more positive results are obtained if primary estimations a) include more countries in their sample, b) control for ICT capital, demographic developments, or tenure, c) focus on employees that remain employed in the same sector, d) consider only non-manufacturing industries, e) are specified in long differences, and f) come from a peer-reviewed journal article. More negative effects, in turn, are reported for primary estimations that are i) weighted, ii) aggregated at country level, iii) control for trade exposure, iv) and consider only manufacturing industries. We also find some evidence for skill-biased technological change. The magnitude of that effect is albeit small and less robust than one might expect in view of skill-biased technological change. We find little evidence for data dependence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Koch, Michael & Ilya Manuylov (2023): Measuring the technological bias of robot adoption and its implications for the aggregate labor share. In: Research Policy, Jg. 52, H. 9. DOI:10.1016/j.respol.2023.104848

Abstract

"This paper investigates the technological bias of robot adoption using a rich panel data set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 25-year period. We apply the production function estimation when productivity is multidimensional to the case of an automating technology, to reveal the Hicks-neutral and labor-augmenting technological change brought about by robot adoption within firms. Our results indicate a causal effect of robots on Hicks-neutral and labor-augmenting components of productivity. The biased technological change turns out to be an important determinant of the decline in the aggregate share of labor in the Spanish manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Kogan, Leonid, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence D. W. Schmidt & Bryan Seegmiller (2023): Technology and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31846), Cambridge, Mass, 93 S.

Abstract

"We develop measures of labor-saving and labor-augmenting technology exposure using textual analysis of patents and job tasks. Using US administrative data, we show that both measures negatively predict earnings growth of individual incumbent workers. While labor-saving technologies predict earnings declines and higher likelihood of job loss for all workers, labor-augmenting technologies primarily predict losses for older or highly-paid workers. However, we find positive effects of labor-augmenting technologies on occupation-level employment and wage bills. A model featuring labor-saving and labor-augmenting technologies with vintage-specific human capital quantitatively matches these patterns. We extend our analysis to predict the effect of AI on earnings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kostøl, Fredrik B. & Elin Svarstad (2023): Trade Unions and the Process of Technological Change. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102386

Abstract

"We investigate how trade unions influence the process of technological change at the workplace level. Using matched employer-employee data, comprising all Norwegian workplaces and working individuals in the period 2000-2014, we exploit exogeneous changes in the tax rules for union members to identify how changes in unionization rates affect the structural composition of occupations within workplaces. Making a distinction between routine and non-routine workers, based on their estimated probabilities of being replaced by automation technologies, we show how labor unions contribute to raising the relative wage of routine workers over non-routine workers. As routine workers on average have lower earnings than non-routine workers, unions thereby contribute to compress wages at the workplace level. The direct implication of this policy is shown to reduce the relative demand for routine workers over non-routine workers in unionized establishments. However, our results also suggest that unions influence the relative demand for routine workers, conditional on relative wages. Our findings thus give some support to bargaining theories where unions force firms off their demand curves." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Lecca, Patrizio, Damiaan Persyn & Stelios Sakkas (2023): Capital-skill complementarity and regional inequality: A spatial general equilibrium analysis. In: Regional Science and Urban Economics, Jg. 102. DOI:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103937

Abstract

"This paper employs a large scale numerical spatial general equilibrium model featuring capital-skill complementarities in production to study the distributional implications of a capital-augmenting technological shift across regions and skills groups. Similarly to the existing literature, we find a negative relationship between the labour income share and the capital labour-ratio. Our counterfactual shows that the effects are quite uneven across skills and regions, benefiting mostly high-skilled workers at the detriment of the low and the medium skilled. This is particularly so in more developed regions compared with less developed ones. We show that the effects stem from regional initial conditions, and in particular the regional capital–labour ratio, trade linkages and unemployment rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Lorenz, Hanno, Fabian Stephany & Jan Kluge (2023): The future of employment revisited: how model selection affects digitization risks. In: Empirica, Jg. 50, H. 2, S. 323-350. DOI:10.1007/s10663-023-09571-2

Abstract

"The uniqueness of human labour is at question in times of smart technologies. As computing power and data available increases, the discussion on technological unemployment reawakens. Prominently, Frey and Osborne (Technol Forecast Soc Change 114:254–280, 2017) estimated that half of US employment must be considered exposed to computerization within the next 20 years; followed by a series of papers expanding the research with information on heterogeneous job-specific tasks within the same jobs diminishing digitization potentials to only smaller fractions of workers at high risk. The main contribution of our work is to show that the diversity of previous findings regarding the degree of digitization is additionally driven by model selection. For our case study, we consult experts in machine learning and industry professionals on the susceptibility to digital technologies in the Austrian labour market. Our results indicate that, while clerical computer-based routine jobs are likely to change in the next decade, professional activities, such as the processing of complex information, are less prone to digital change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Mațcu, Mara, Adriana Zaiț, Rodica Ianole-Călin & Ioana Alexandra Horodnic (2023): Undeclared activities on digital labour platforms: an exploratory study. In: The international journal of sociology and social policy, Jg. 43, H. 7/8, S. 740-755. DOI:10.1108/IJSSP-07-2022-0186

Abstract

"Purpose: This paper aims to explore the prevalence of undeclared activities conducted on digital labour platforms, and then to discuss what policies are likely to be more effective in order to prevent the growth of the informal activities on these platforms. Design/methodology/approach: To depict the profile of the digital worker conducting undeclared activities, the sectors where undeclared activities are more prevalent and the effectiveness of deterrent policies, data are reported from 2019 Special Eurobarometer survey covering the European Union member states and the UK. Findings: The finding is that 13% of undeclared activities are conducted on digital labour platforms. This practice is more common amongst men, those married or remarried, those living in small/middle towns, in sectors such as repairs/renovations, selling goods/services, assistance for dependant persons, gardening and help moving house. The higher the perceived sanction, the lower the likelihood of undertaking undeclared activities on digital labour platforms. Intriguing, a higher risk of detection is associated with a higher likelihood to use digital labour platform for undeclared activities.Practical implications The attitudes toward risk can be interpreted closer to the gaming context, and not to the working environment, looking at platform workers as being involved in a state versus individual game. Policy makers should consider improving the correspondence of laws and regulations between countries and offering operational assistance for suppliers and consumers. Originality/value: This is the first paper to explore the prevalence of undeclared activities conducted on digital labour platforms and to outline the policy measures required to reduce this practice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Mendonça, Pedro, Nadia K. Kougiannou & Ian Clark (2023): Informalization in gig food delivery in the UK: The case of hyper-flexible and precarious work. In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 62, H. 1, S. 60-77. DOI:10.1111/irel.12320

Abstract

"This article examines the process of informalization of work in platform food delivery work in the UK. Drawing on qualitative data, this article provides new analytical insight into what drives individual formal couriers to both supply and demand informalized sub-contracted gig work to undocumented migrants, and how a platform company enables informal work practices through permissive HR practices and technology. In doing so, this article shows how platform companies are enablers of informal labor markets and contribute to the expansion of hyper-precarious working conditions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Miho, Antonela, Martin Borowiecki & Jens Hoj (2023): Digitalisation and the labour market: Worker-level evidence from Slovenia. (OECD Economics Department working papers 1767), Paris, 25 S. DOI:10.1787/d2bb40db-en

Abstract

"This paper provides evidence on the effects of digitalisation on the labour market in Slovenia using a unique dataset of Slovenian workers and firms for the years 2016 to 2020. Results show that at the firm level, digitalisation – measured in terms of ICT investment, is associated with positive and statistically significant effects on employment. However, job growth is not evenly distributed: High-skilled workers and younger workers benefit the most from employment gains, whereas there is little to no employment increases for low- and medium-skilled workers and older workers aged 50 or more. Furthermore, employment effects from digitalisation are strongest for private manufacturing firms. In contrast, ICT investment by state-owned firms is not associated with employment gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Mosseri, Sarah, Ariadne Vromen, Rae Cooper & Elizabeth Hill (2023): Between Frustration and Invigoration: Women Talking about Digital Technology at Work. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 37, H. 6, S. 1681-1698. DOI:10.1177/09500170221091680

Abstract

"This study addresses the dearth of gender analysis within debates about technological innovation and workplace change. Qualitative analysis of 12 focus groups conducted with women in ‘frontline’ and ‘professional’ roles discussing their use and engagement with digital technologies at work reveals contrasting narratives of ‘digital frustration’ and ‘digital invigoration’. To explain these distinct narratives, we synthesise insights from science and technology studies with findings from scholarship on gendered work and labour market inequality to show that these differences are not driven solely by a technology’s form or the degree of automation it ostensibly represents. Instead, women’s narratives reflect an interplay between technological design, employment context and workers’ own voice and agency. These findings challenge assumptions about the totalising and transformative power of work-related technologies, redirecting attention to how social and political contestations over digital technologies inform worker experiences and shape the future of work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Nikolova, Milena, Anthony Lepinteur & Femke Cnossen (2023): Just Another Cog in the Machine? A Worker-Level View of Robotization and Tasks. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16610), Bonn, 44 S.

Abstract

"Using survey data from 20 European countries, we construct novel worker-level indices of routine, abstract, social, and physical tasks across 20 European countries, which we combine with industry-level robotization exposure. Our conceptual framework builds on the insight that robotization simultaneously replaces, creates, and modifies workers' tasks and studies how these forces impact workers' job content. We rely on instrumental variable techniques and show that robotization reduces physically demanding activities. Yet, this reduction in manual work does not coincide with a shift to more challenging and interesting tasks. Instead, robotization makes workers' tasks more routine, while diminishing the opportunities for cognitively challenging work and human contact. The adverse impact of robotization on social tasks is particularly pronounced for highly skilled and educated workers. Our study offers a unique worker-centric viewpoint on the interplay between technology and tasks, highlighting nuances that macro-level indicators overlook. As such, it sheds light on the mechanisms underpinning the impact of robotization on labor markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Petroff, Alisa & Jaime Fierro (2023): Crowd work in STEM-related fields: A window of opportunity from a gender perspective? In: Sociology Compass, Jg. 17, H. 3. DOI:10.1111/soc4.13058

Abstract

"After the Global Financial Crisis (2008) many people found new job opportunities on crowd platforms. The COVID-19 crisis reinforced this trend and virtual work is expected to increase. Although the working conditions of individuals engaged on these platforms is an emerging topic, of research, the existing literature tends to overlook the gendered dimension of the gig economy. Following a quantitative approach, based on the statistical analysis of 444 profiles (platform Freelancer.com in Spain and Argentina), we examine the extent to which the gig economy reproduces gender inequalities such as the underrepresentation of women in STEM-related tasks and the gender pay gap. While the findings reveal lower participation of women than men, this gap is not higher in Argentina than in Spain. Moreover, gender variations in hourly wages are not as marked as expected, and such differences disappear once STEM skill levels are controlled for. Asymmetry in individuals' STEM skill level provides a better explanation than gender of the hourly wage differences. This finding opens a window of opportunity to mitigate the classical gender discrimination that women face in technological fields in traditional labor markets. Finally, the paper identifies some issues concerning the methodological bias entailed by the use of an application programming interface in cyber-research, when analyzing gender inequalities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Polkowska, Dominika & Bartosz Mika (2023): Is it possible to outsmart Uber? Individual working tactics within platform work in Poland. In: European Societies, Jg. 25, H. 4, S. 606-626. DOI:10.1080/14616696.2022.2156578

Abstract

"Platform work in general requires workers to apply specific strategies to stay afloat. In Poland, platform work is a complex system of mutual relations and interdependencies between transnational corporations, national regulators, service providers, intermediaries and platform workers. Based on thirty-one in-depth interviews with Uber drivers in Poland and two expert interviews with fleet partners, this article presents the working strategies adopted by platform workers and looks at how the historical experience of communism may shape responses to twenty-first-century global capitalism. The analysis shows that an adequate remuneration can only be made by adopting the strategy called kombinowanie, a combination of small cheating, fiddling and exploiting loopholes in the law." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Reljic, Jelena, Valeria Cirillo & Dario Guarascio (2023): Regimes of robotization in Europe. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 232. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111320

Abstract

"This work analyses the impact of robots on employment testing for the presence of different robotization regimes. Focusing on European manufacturing industries, we find that robot adoption positively affects total employment. Heterogeneous patterns are detected across both countries and occupational groups, however. The labor-friendly impact of robotization is detected only in core and service-oriented countries and for those at the top of the occupational structure (i.e. managers and technicians). In turn, peripheral countries and manual workers do not seem to benefit at all from robotization." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Reveiu, Adriana, Maria Denisa Vasilescu & Alexandru Banica (2023): Digital divide across the European Union and labour market resilience. In: Regional Studies, Jg. 57, H. 12, S. 2391-2405. DOI:10.1080/00343404.2022.2044465

Abstract

"Using a regional evolutionary perspective and a cross-regional data panel for 278 European Union regions, this study investigates the relationship between regional digital development and labour market resilience. To address a fundamental concern of regional studies, it proposes an analytical framework that assesses digital disparities in the spatial context and provides a nuanced understanding of digital dimensions impacting labour market resilience. The primary labour market outcome, the employment rate, was evaluated to investigate the regional resilience in the Great Recession. A gradient boosting method was used to identify the digital predictors in different resilience stages and to articulate policy-relevant conclusions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Torosyan, Karine, Sicheng Wang, Elizabeth A. Mack, Jenna A. Van Fossen & Nathan Baker (2023): Assessing the impact of technological change on similar occupations: Implications for employment alternatives. In: PLoS ONE, Jg. 18. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0291428

Abstract

"Background: The fast-changing labor market highlights the need for an in-depth understanding of occupational mobility impacted by technological change. However, we lack a multidimensional classification scheme that considers similarities of occupations comprehensively, which prevents us from predicting employment trends and mobility across occupations. This study fills the gap by examining employment trends based on similarities between occupations. Method: We first demonstrated a new method that clusters 756 occupation titles based on knowledge, skills, abilities, education, experience, training, activities, values, and interests. We used the Principal Component Analysis to categorize occupations in the Standard Occupational Classification, which is grouped into a four-level hierarchy. Then, we paired the occupation clusters with the occupational employment projections provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. We analyzed how employment would change and what factors affect the employment changes within occupation groups. Particularly, we specified factors related to technological changes. Results: The results reveal that technological change accounts for significant job losses in some clusters. This poses occupational mobility challenges for workers in these jobs at present. Job losses for nearly 60% of current employment will occur in low-skill, low-wage occupational groups. Meanwhile, many mid-skilled and highly skilled jobs are projected to grow in the next ten years. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate the utility of our occupational classification scheme. Furthermore, it suggests a critical need for skills upgrading and workforce development for workers in declining jobs. Special attention should be paid to vulnerable workers, such as older individuals and minorities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Willcox, Michael & Brittany Feor (2023): Structural Changes in Canadian Employment from 1997 to 2022. (JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology 2023,08), Sevilla, 33 S.

Abstract

"This paper uses the European Jobs Monitor (2017) jobs' approach to examine the structural changes in employment and wages in Canada between 1997 and 2022. Changes in employment and real wages reveals a long-term pattern of upgrading, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis. There is variation in these patterns within the 25-year period including a shift towards higher quality jobs after the financial crisis and evidence of wage polarisation between 2020 and 2022. Employment and wage trends by sector, sex and age were explored. Employment shifted away from manufacturing towards the healthcare and social assistance, professional, scientific, and technical services, and construction sectors since the late 1990s which accelerated after the global financial crisis. The wage gap and difference in employment shares between men and women has narrowed over time, despite recent widening following the pandemic. Canada's aging population has resulted in a growing share of mature workers in the labour market and in core-age workers becoming more concentrated in mid-to-high wage jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Wirth, Tanja & Stefanie Mache (2023): Gesundheitsförderliche Gestaltung von Digitalisierungsprozessen in Organisationen. Wissenschaftlicher Überblick von Anforderungen und Unterstützungsfaktoren für Beschäftigte. In: Arbeitsmedizin, Sozialmedizin, Umweltmedizin, Jg. 58, H. 11, S. 727-735. DOI:10.17147/asu-1-316850

Abstract

"Digitalisierungsprozesse können weitreichende arbeitsorganisatorische Veränderungen mit sich bringen und Einfluss auf die Arbeitsbedingungen von Beschäftigten nehmen. Der vorliegende Übersichtsartikel untersucht, welche Anforderungen und Unterstützungsfaktoren Beschäftigte im Zuge solcher Digitalisierungsprozesse erleben und wie diese gesundheitsförderlich gestaltet werden können. Methoden: Es wurde eine systematische Literaturrecherche in den Datenbanken PubMed und Web of Science durchgeführt. Eingeschlossen wurden deutsch- und englischsprachige Studien ab dem Jahr 2013, die konkrete Digitalisierungsmaßnahmen/-projekte in Unternehmen oder staatlichen Einrichtungen untersuchten und Ergebnisse zu den Auswirkungen der Digitalisierungsprozesse auf die Beschäftigten oder hinsichtlich der Prozessgestaltung beschrieben. Die Ergebnisdarstellung erfolgte als qualitative Zusammenfassung. Ergebnisse: Insgesamt wurden neun Studien in die Übersicht eingeschlossen. Fehlende Ziele, Strategien und Verantwortlichkeiten für die Implementierung der Digitalisierungsmaßnahme, Intransparenz, erhöhte Arbeitsbelastung sowie unzureichende Unterstützung und zeitliche Ressourcen können von Beschäftigten als Anforderung wahrgenommen werden. Umfangreiche Information, aktive Einbindung, Bereitstellung von Schulungsmaßnahmen und Unterstützung auf technischer Ebene und durch die Führung stellen dagegen Unterstützungsfaktoren im Prozess dar. Entsprechend bieten die Vorbereitung und Ausgestaltung des Prozesses, personelle Ressourcen, Unterstützungsmaßnahmen, Partizipation und Kommunikation relevante Möglichkeiten für eine gesundheitsförderliche Gestaltung des Digitalisierungsvorhabens. Schlussfolgerungen: Organisationen sollten mögliche Auswirkungen von Digitalisierungsprozessen für ihre Beschäftigten bereits zu Beginn der Maßnahme berücksichtigen und mitgestalten. Das kann gelingen, indem die Implementierung von Digitalisierungsmaßnahmen als ganzheitlicher Prozess verstanden wird, der ein Change-Management und Change-Leadership erfordert. Schlüsselwörter: Digitalisierung – digitale Transformation – Change-Management – betriebliche Gesundheitsförderung (eingegangen am 31.08.2023, angenommen am 12.10.2023)" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Young, Erin, Judy Wajcman & Laila Sprejer (2023): Mind the gender gap: Inequalities in the emergent professions of artificial intelligence (AI) and data science. In: New Technology, Work and Employment, Jg. 38, H. 3, S. 391-414. DOI:10.1111/ntwe.12278

Abstract

"The emergence of new prestigious professions in data science and artificial intelligence (AI) provide a rare opportunity to explore the gendered dynamics of technical careers as they are being formed. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on gender inequality in digital work by curating and analysing a unique cross‐country data set. We use innovative data science methodology to investigate the nature of work and skills in these under‐researched fields. Our research finds persistent disparities in jobs, qualifications, seniority, industry, attrition and even self‐confidence in these fields. We identify structural inequality in data and AI, with career trajectories of professionals differentiated by gender, reflecting the broader history of computing. Our work is original in illuminating gendering processes within elite high‐tech jobs as they are being configured. Paying attention to these nascent fields is crucial if we are to ensure that women take their rightful place at forefront of technological innovation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Zhang, Lihua, Tian Gan & Jiachen Fan (2023): Do industrial robots affect the labour market? Evidence from China. In: Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, Jg. 31, H. 3, S. 787-817. DOI:10.1111/ecot.12356

Abstract

"The industrial robot is an essential part of modern manufacturing. Using micro-level data, this study investigates the effects of industrial robots on the labour market in China. The results show that the adoption of industrial robots increases firm-level employment by 31.65%. Using the Bartik method, we construct robot penetration as an instrumental variable of robot adoption to tackle endogenous problems. Our results stand up to a series of robustness checks. Moreover, the effects of robots are mainly owing to the expansion of the output scale, increased productivity, and upgraded products. We also find the skill-biased impact of robots and the spillover effect of industrial robots through production networks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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de Boer, Noortje & Nadine Raaphorst (2023): Automation and discretion: explaining the effect of automation on how street-level bureaucrats enforce. In: Public Management Review, Jg. 25, H. 1, S. 42-62. DOI:10.1080/14719037.2021.1937684

Abstract

"A dominant assumption in the street-level bureaucracy literature is that bureaucrats’ discretion is curtailed by automated systems. Drawing on survey and factual data (n = 549) from Dutch inspectors, we test the effect of automation on enforcement style and whether this can be explained by discretion-as-perceived. Our results show that automation (1) increases bureaucrats’ legal and accommodation style; (2) discretion-as-perceived does not mediate this effect; but (3) automation does decrease discretion-as-perceived. The main implication is that we do not find empirical evidence for curtailment and future research should move beyond discretion to understand effects of digital systems on bureaucrats’ behaviour." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2023): Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2023. Bridging the Great Green Divide. (Job creation and local economic development 5), Paris, 164 S. DOI:10.1787/21db61c1-en

Abstract

"Die Bekämpfung des Klimawandels und der Umweltzerstörung ist eine der schwierigsten Aufgaben, vor denen die Welt steht. Doch ein Mangel an Arbeitskräften mit den entsprechenden Qualifikationen könnte den grünen Wandel behindern. Die umwelt- und klimapolitischen Herausforderungen unserer Zeit erfordern neue nachhaltige Lösungen und eine erhebliche Verringerung von Emissionen, was sich weltweit auf die industrielle Produktion, den Konsum und die Energieversorgung auswirken wird. Dieser Übergang zu einer nachhaltigen und klimaneutralen Wirtschaft wird zu einer erheblichen Umgestaltung lokaler Arbeitsmärkte führen, da die Arbeitnehmer in andere Berufe und Sektoren wechseln. Der grüne Wandel verstärkt Megatrends wie die Digitalisierung und den demografischen Wandel, die auch die Geografie der Arbeitsplätze und die Arbeitswelt verändern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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(2023): OECD Employment Outlook 2023. Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market. (OECD employment outlook), Paris, 264 S. DOI:10.1787/08785bba-en

Abstract

"The 2023 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the latest labour market developments in OECD countries. It focuses, in particular, on the evolution of labour demand and widespread shortages, as well as on wage developments in times of high inflation and related policies. It also takes stock of the current evidence on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labour market. Progress in AI has been such that, in many areas, its outputs have become almost indistinguishable from that of humans, and the landscape continues to change quickly, as recent developments in large language models have shown. This, combined with the falling costs of developing and adopting AI systems, suggests that OECD countries may be on the verge of a technological revolution that could fundamentally change the workplace. While there are many potential benefits from AI, there are also significant risks that need to be urgently addressed, despite the uncertainty about the short- to medium-term evolution of AI. This edition investigates how to get the balance right in addressing the possible negative effects of AI on labour market outcomes while not stifling its benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The rapid advances of artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years have led to numerous creative applications in science. Accelerating the productivity of science could be the most economically and socially valuable of all the uses of AI. Utilising AI to accelerate scientific productivity will support the ability of OECD countries to grow, innovate and meet global challenges, from climate change to new contagions. This publication is aimed at a broad readership, including policy makers, the public, and stakeholders in all areas of science. It is written in non-technical language and gathers the perspectives of prominent researchers and practitioners. The book examines various topics, including the current, emerging, and potential future uses of AI in science, where progress is needed to better serve scientific advancements, and changes in scientific productivity. Additionally, it explores measures to expedite the integration of AI into research in developing countries. A distinctive contribution is the book’s examination of policies for AI in science. Policy makers and actors across research systems can do much to deepen AI’s use in science, magnifying its positive effects, while adapting to the fast-changing implications of AI for research governance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2023): Future of Jobs Report 2023. Insight Report. (The future of jobs report), Cologny/Geneva, 295 S.

Abstract

"The Future of Jobs Report 2023 explores how jobs and skills will evolve over the next five years. This fourth edition of the series continues the analysis of employer expectations to provide new insights on how socio-economic and technology trends will shape the workplace of the future." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This study is made of two parts: part A and part B. Part A of the study analyses - through 27 country fiches - the extent to which each EU Member State is prepared for ensuring a socially fair digital transformation in the coming years, based on both its current situation and future prospects. In this analysis, key areas of focus include the labor market, digital skills of the population, social protection as well as cross-cutting dimensions, such as the digitalization level of businesses and the quality of digital infrastructures. Part B of the study reviews - through 30 case studies - some of the main actual and potential uses of digital technologies (including AI) by a country’s public sector for improving the design and the delivery of social benefits and active labor market policies, as well as for complementing the monitoring of poverty and income inequality (the case studies analysed are mainly in Member States but also in a few third countries)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2022): Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality. In: Econometrica, Jg. 90, H. 5, S. 1973-2016. DOI:10.3982/ECTA19815

Abstract

"We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the U.S. wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from jobs for which they have comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in education wage differentials between 1980 and 2016. The negative relationship between wage changes and task displacement is unaffected when we control for changes in market power, deunionization, and other forms of capital deepening and technology unrelated to automation. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of automation, which incorporate induced changes in industry composition and ripple effects due to task reallocation across different groups. Our quantitative evaluation explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand‐in‐hand with modest productivity gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Albinowski, Maciej & Piotr Lewandowski (2022): The Impact of ICT and Robots on Labour Market Outcomes of Demographic Groups in Europe. (IBS working paper / Instytut Badań Strukturalnych 2022,04), Warszawa, 52 S.

Abstract

"We study the age- and gender-specific labour market effects of two key modern technologies, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and robots, in 14 European countries between 2010 and 2018. To identify the causal effects of technology adoption, we utilise the variation in technology adoption between industries and apply the instrumental variables strategy proposed by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020). We find that the adoption of ICT and robots increased the shares of young and prime-aged women in employment and the wage bills of particular sectors, but reduced the shares of older women and primeaged men. The negative effects were particularly pronounced for older women in cognitive occupations, who had relatively low ICT-related skills; and for young men in routine manual occupations, who experienced substitution by robots. Between 2010 and 2018, the growth in ICT capital played a much larger role than robot adoption in the changes in the labour market outcomes of demographic groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Antón, José-Ignacio, David Klenert, Enrique Fernández-Macías, Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Georgios Alaveras (2022): The labour market impact of robotisation in Europe. In: European journal of industrial relations, Jg. 28, H. 3, S. 317-339. DOI:10.1177/09596801211070801

Abstract

"This paper explores the impact of robot adoption on European regional labour markets between 1995 and 2015. Specifically, we look at the effect of the usage of industrial robots on jobs and employment structures across European regions. Our estimates suggest that the effect of robots on employment tends to be mostly small and negative during the period 1995–2005 and positive during the period 2005–2015 for the majority of model specifications. Regarding the effects on employment structures, we find some evidence of a mildly polarising effect in the first period, but this finding depends to some extent on the model specifications. In sum, this paper shows that the impact of robots on European labour markets in the last couple of decades has been ambiguous and is not robust. The strength and even the sign of this effect are sensitive to the specifications, as well as to the countries and periods analysed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Autor, David, Caroline Chin, Anna M. Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller (2022): New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018. (NBER working paper 30389), Cambridge, Mass, 79 S. DOI:10.3386/w30389

Abstract

"We address three core questions about the hypothesized role of newly emerging job categories ('new work') in counterbalancing the erosive effect of task-displacing automation on labor demand: what is the substantive content of new work; where does it come from; and what effect does it have on labor demand? To address these questions, we construct a novel database spanning eight decades of new job titles linked both to US Census microdata and to patent-based measures of occupations' exposure to labor-augmenting and labor-automating innovations. We find, first, that the majority of current employment is in new job specialties introduced after 1940, but the locus of new work creation has shifted—from middle-paid production and clerical occupations over 1940–1980, to high-paid professional and, secondarily, low-paid services since 1980. Second, new work emerges in response to technological innovations that complement the outputs of occupations and demand shocks that raise occupational demand; conversely, innovations that automate tasks or reduce occupational demand slow new work emergence. Third, although flows of augmentation and automation innovations are positively correlated across occupations, the former boosts occupational labor demand while the latter depresses it. Harnessing shocks to the flow of augmentation and automation innovations spurred by breakthrough innovations two decades earlier, we establish that the effects of augmentation and automation innovations on new work emergence and occupational labor demand are causal. Finally, our results suggest that the demand-eroding effects of automation innovations have intensified in the last four decades while the demand-increasing effects of augmentation innovations have not." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bachmann, Ronald, Myrielle Gonschor, Piotr Lewandowski & Karol Madoń (2022): The impact of robots on labour market transitions in Europe. (Ruhr economic papers 933), Essen, 53 S.

Abstract

"Dieses Papier untersucht die Auswirkungen von Robotern auf Arbeitsmarkttransitionen in 16 europäischen Ländern. Generell reduzieren Roboter Übergänge von der Beschäftigung in die Arbeitslosigkeit und erhöhen die Wahrscheinlichkeit, einen neuen Job zu finden. Arbeitskosten sind eine wichtige Erklärung für die beobachteten Unterschiede zwischen Ländern: In Ländern mit niedrigeren Arbeitskosten zeigt sich ein stärkerer Effekt auf Einstellungen und Trennungen. Diese Auswirkungen sind bei Arbeitskräften in Berufen mit manuellen oder kognitiven Routineaufgaben besonders ausgeprägt, bei Berufen mit nicht-routine kognitiven Aufgaben hingegen vernachlässigbar. Für junge und ältere Arbeitskräfte in Ländern mit niedrigeren Arbeitskosten wirken sich Roboter positiv auf Übergänge aus. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die Einführung von Robotern in den meisten europäischen Ländern zu einem Anstieg der Beschäftigung und einem Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit geführt hat, vor allem durch einen Rückgang der Übergänge in die Arbeitslosigkeit." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Barslund, Mikkel (2022): The dynamics of ICT skills in EU Member States. (Social situation monitor), Luxembourg, 38 S. DOI:10.2767/866469

Abstract

"This study proposes a digital skills intensity index to measure the average number of digital skills used by a worker, based on their International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) occupational classification." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berg, Janine, Francis Green, Laura Nurski & David Spencer (2022): Risks to job quality from digital Technologies: are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge? (Working paper / Bruegel 2022,16), Brussels, 31 S.

Abstract

"We examine the job quality effects of new digital technologies in Europe, using the framework of seven job quality ‘domains’: pay, working time quality, prospects, skills and discretion, work intensity, social environment and physical environment. The theoretical effects from new technology are ambivalent for all domains. Data on robot shocks matched to the European Working Conditions Surveys for 2010 and 2015 is used to generate empirical estimates, which show significant aggregate negative effects in three domains, and a positive effect in one. Some negative effects are enhanced where there is below-median collective bargaining. In light of these analyses, and in order to think through the challenge of regulating the development and implementation of all forms of digital technologies, we review regulations in several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we advance the general hypothesis that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application to the regulation of job quality of national and supra-national data protection legislation. In these ways, the paper extends the debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, to a consideration of job quality more broadly." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berger, Thor & Per Engzell (2022): Industrial automation and intergenerational income mobility in the United States. In: Social science research, Jg. 104. DOI:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102686

Abstract

"This article examines how the automation of jobs has shaped spatial patterns of intergenerational income mobility in the United States over the past three decades. Using data on the spread of industrial robots across 722 local labor markets, we find significantly lower rates of upward mobility in areas more exposed to automation. The erosion of mobility chances is rooted in childhood environments and is particularly evident among males growing up in low-income households. These findings reveal how recent technological advances have contributed to the unequal patterns of economic opportunity in the United States today." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))

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Blasco, Sylvie, Julie Rochut & Bénédicte Rouland (2022): Displaced or Depressed? The Effect of Working in Automatable Jobs on Mental Health. (IZA discussion paper 15434), Bonn, 29 S.

Abstract

"Automation may destroy jobs and change the labour demand structure, thereby potentially impacting workers' health and well-being. Using French individual survey data, we estimate the effects of working in automatable jobs on mental health. Implementing propensity score matching to solve the issue of endogenous exposure to automation risk, we find that workers whose job is at risk of automation in the future are about 4 pp more likely to suffer at present from severe mental disorders. Fear of job loss within the year and fear of qualification or occupational changes seem relevant channels to explain our findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clark, Gordon L. (2022): Agency, sentiment, and risk and uncertainty: fears of job loss in 8 European countries. In: ZFW - Advances in Economic Geography, Jg. 66, H. 1, S. 3-17. DOI:10.1515/zfw-2021-0037

Abstract

"How people assess their prospects and act accordingly is anchored in time and space. But context is only half the story. Human beings share predispositions in favour of the here and now, discounting the future, and risk aversion. This paper provides a framework for integrating cognition with context in economic geography focusing upon agency, resources, and risk and uncertainty in European labour markets. In doing so, it seeks to avoid essentialising the individual while ensuring that the resulting framework does not leave individuals as cyphers of time and place. The framework is illustrated by reference to individual’s assessments of the consequences of technological change for their employment prospects in a multicountry European setting. Implications are drawn for a behavioural economic geography that is policy relevant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsgeographie) ((en))

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Cords, Dario & Klaus Prettner (2022): Technological unemployment revisited: automation in a search and matching framework. In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 74, H. 1, S. 115-135. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpab022

Abstract

"Will automation raise unemployment and what is the role of education in this context? To answer these questions, we propose a search and matching model of the labour market with two skill types and with industrial robots. In line with evidence to date, robots are better substitutes for low-skilled workers than for high-skilled workers. We show that robot adoption leads to rising unemployment and falling wages of low-skilled workers and falling unemployment and rising wages of high-skilled workers. In a calibration to Austrian and German data, we find that robot adoption destroys fewer low-skilled jobs than the number of high-skilled jobs it creates. For Australia and the USA, the reverse holds true. Allowing for endogenous skill acquisition of workers implies positive employment effects of automation in all four countries. Thus, the firm creation mechanism in the search and matching model and skill acquisition are alleviating the adverse effects of automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cresti, Lorenzo, Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo (2022): Technological interdependencies and employment changes in European industries. (LEM working paper series / Laboratory of Economics and Management 2022,5), Pisa, 36 S.

Abstract

"This work addresses the role of inter-sectoral innovation flows, which we frame as technological interdependencies, in determining sectoral employment dynamics. This purpose is achieved through the construction of an indicator capturing the amount of R&D expenditures embodied in the backward linkages of industries. We aim to find out whether having a more integrated production in terms of requiring more technological inputs is related to a lower demand for workers within the sector. We refer to the literature on innovation-employment nexus, inter-sectoral knowledge spillovers and Global Value Chains, building upon structuralist and evolutionary theoretical considerations. We track the flows of embodied technological change between industries taking advantage of the notion of vertically integrated sectors. The relevance of this vertical technological dimension for determining employment dynamics is then tested on a panel data of European industries over the 2008-2014 period. Results show a statistically significant and negative employment impact of the degree of vertical integration in terms of acquisitions of R&D embodied inputs. Combining the role of demand, the double nature of innovation - as product and as process -, together with intersectoral linkages, this work shows that the dependence of a sector from innovation performed by other ones - a proxy for input embodied process innovations - exert a negative effect upon employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Del Giudice, Manlio, Veronica Scuotto, Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Marco Pironti (2022): Humanoid robot adoption and labour productivity: a perspective on ambidextrous product innovation routines. In: The International Journal of Human Resource Management, Jg. 33, H. 6, S. 1098-1124. DOI:10.1080/09585192.2021.1897643

Abstract

"The increasing presence of humanoid robot adoption has generated a change in explorative and exploitative routines. If the explorative routines provoke creativity and critical thinking which are delivered by humans, exploitative routines induce repetitive actions and mimic activities which are executed by humanoids. This has raised the need for a better balance between both routines involving an ambidextrous dynamic process. Here, product innovations play a relevant role in enhancing such balance and labour productivity. If, from the conceptual standpoint, this phenomenon has already been explored, there is still the need to empirically analyse it. We thus offer a meso-analysis of twenty-four countries located in Europe through the lens of the Service Robot Deployment (SRD) Model and the conceptual lens of organizational ambidexterity. By a regression methodology, the results show that humanoid robot adoption is still not affecting labour productivity which, by contrast, is positively and significantly connected with both radically new and marginally modified/unchanged production of innovative routines. Our original contribution, which falls in the field of Human Resources Management and Artificial Intelligence, is that humanoids are not directly impacting labour productivity but indirectly through the generation of both new and marginally modified (or unchanged) routines. This situation persuades senior leaders to achieve a balance between exploitative and explorative product innovation routines." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dhondt, Steven, Karolus O. Kraan & Michiel Bal (2022): Organisation, technological change and skills use over time: A longitudinal study on linked employee surveys. In: New Technology, Work and Employment, Jg. 37, H. 3, S. 343-362. DOI:10.1111/ntwe.12227

Abstract

"The impact of technological change on the content of jobs and accompanying skills is a central topic across disciplines. To date, ample research has directly linked the technological change to shifts in skills use; however, organisational change is rarely considered as an influencing factor. Based on a panel survey, this paper uses a Luhmannian approach to understand the relationship between technological change and organisational context. This theory is tested quantitatively and shows the importance of considering the working environment's nature when studying skills changes. The results show small effects by the technological change on changing skills use but larger effects by changes in the working environment. Recommendations for future research and practical implications are discussed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dolado, Juan J., Etienne Lalé & Helene Turone (2022): Zero-hours Contracts in a Frictional Labour Market. (Discussion Paper / University of Bristol, Department of Economics 22/763), Bristol, 50 S.

Abstract

"We propose a model to evaluate the U.K.'s zero-hours contract (ZHC)- a contract that exempts employers from the requirement to provide any minimum working hours, and allows workers to decline any workload. We find quantitatively mixed welfare effects of ZHCs. On one hand they unlock job creation among firms that face highly volatile business conditions and increase labor force participation of individuals who prefer flexible work schedules. On the other hand, the use of ZHCs by less volatile firms, where jobs are otherwise viable under regular contracts, reduces welfare and likely explains negative employee reactions to this contract." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Duch Brown, Nestor, Estrella Gomez-Herrera, Frank Mueller-Langer & Songul Tolan (2022): Market Power and Artificial Intelligence Work on Online Labour Markets. (JRC digital economy working paper 2021-10), Seville, 40 S.

Abstract

"We investigate three alternative but complementary indicators of market power on one of the largest online labour markets (OLMs) in Europe: (1) the elasticity of labour demand, (2) the elasticity of labour supply, and (3) the concentration of market shares. We explore how these indicators relate to an exogenous change in platform policy. In the middle of the observation period, the platform made it mandatory for employers to signal the rates they were willing to pay as given by the level of experience required to perform a project, i.e., entry, intermediate or expert level. We find a positive labour supply elasticity ranging between 0.06 and 0.15, which is higher for expert-level projects. We also find that the labour demand elasticity increased while the labour supply elasticity decreased after the policy change. Based on this, we argue that market-designing platform providers can influence the labour demand and supply elasticities on OLMs with the terms and conditions they set for the platform. We also explore the demand for and supply of AI-related labour on the OLM under study. We provide evidence for a significantly higher demand for AI-related labour (ranging from +1.4% to +4.1%) and a significantly lower supply of AI-related labour (ranging from -6.8% to -1.6%) than for other types of labour. We also find that workers on AI projects receive 3.0%-3.2% higher wages than workers on non-AI projects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Martina Bisello (2022): A Comprehensive Taxonomy of Tasks for Assessing the Impact of New Technologies on Work. In: Social indicators research, Jg. 159, H. 2, S. 821-841. DOI:10.1007/s11205-021-02768-7

Abstract

"In recent years, the increasing concern about the labour market implications of technological change has led economists to look in more detail at the structure of work content and job tasks. Incorporating insights from other traditions of task analysis, in particular from the labour process approach, as well as from recent research on skills, work organisation and occupational change, in this paper we propose a comprehensive and detailed taxonomy of tasks. Going beyond existing broad classifications, our taxonomy aims at connecting the substantive content of work with its organisational context by answering two key questions: what do people do at work and how do they do their work? For illustrative purposes, we show how our approach allows a better understanding of the impact of new technologies on work, by accounting for relevant ongoing transformations such as the diffusion of artificial intelligence and the unfolding of digital labour platforms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Haapanala, Henri, Ive Marx & Zachary Parolin (2022): Robots and Unions: The Moderating Effect of Organised Labour on Technological Unemployment. (IZA discussion paper 15080), Bonn, 31 S.

Abstract

"We analyse the moderating effect of trade unions on industrial employment and unemployment in countries facing exposure to industrial robots. Applying random effects within-between regression to a pseudo-panel of observations from 28 advanced democracies over 1998-2019, we find that stronger trade unions in a country are associated with a greater decline in the industry sector employment of young and low-educated workers. We also show that the unemployment rates for low-educated workers remain constant in strongly unionised countries with increasing exposure to robots, whereas in weakly unionised countries, low-educated unemployment declines with robot exposure but from a higher starting point. Our results point to unions exacerbating the insider-outsider effects of technological change within the industrial sector, which however is not fully passed on to unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Handel, Michael J. (2022): Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation. In: Monthly labor review H. July. DOI:10.21916/mlr.2022.21

Abstract

"Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have led to substantial concern that large-scale job losses are imminent. Selected occupations are often cited as illustrations of technological displacement that is or will become a more general problem, but these discussions are often impressionistic. This article compiles a list of specific occupations cited in the automation literature and examines the occupations’ employment trends since 1999 and projected employment to 2029. There is little support in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data or projections for the idea of a general acceleration of job loss or a structural break with trends pre-dating the AI revolution with respect to the occupations cited as examples. Offsetting factors and other limitations of the automation thesis are discussed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hirvonen, Johannes, Aapo Stenhammar & Joonas Tuhkuri (2022): New Evidence on the Effect of Technology on Employment and Skill Demand. (ETLA working papers 93), Helsinki, 133 S.

Abstract

"We present novel evidence on the effects of advanced technologies on employment, skill demand, and firm performance. The main finding is that advanced technologies led to increases in employment and no change in skill composition. Our main research design focuses on a technology subsidy program in Finland that induced sharp increases in technology investment in manufacturing firms. Our data directly measure multiple technologies and skills and track firms and workers over time. We demonstrate novel text analysis and machine learning methods to perform matching and to measure specific technological changes. To explain our findings, we outline a theoretical framework that contrasts two types of technological change: process versus product. We document that firms used new technologies to produce new types of output rather than replace workers with technologies within the same type of production. The results contrast with the ideas that technologies necessarily replace workers or are skill biased." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hornuf, Lars & Daniel Vrankar (2022): Hourly Wages in Crowdworking: A Meta-Analysis. (CESifo working paper 9540), München, 38 S.

Abstract

"In the past decade, crowdworking on online labor market platforms has become the main source of income for a growing number of people worldwide. This development has led to increasing political and scientific interest in the wages that people can earn on such platforms. In this article, we extend the literature based on a single platform, region, or category of crowdworking by conducting a meta-analysis of the prevalent hourly wages. After a systematic and rigorous literature search, we consider 20 primary empirical studies, including 104 wages and 76,282 data points from 22 platforms, eight different countries, and a time span of 12 years. We find that, on average, microwork results in an hourly wage of less than $6. This wage is significantly lower than the mean wage of online freelancers, which is roughly three times higher. We find that hourly wages accounting for unpaid work, such as searching for tasks and communicating with requesters, tend to be significantly lower than wages not considering unpaid work. Legislators and researchers evaluating wages in crowdworking should be aware of this bias when assessing hourly wages, given that the majority of the literature does not account for the effect of unpaid work time on crowdworking wages. To foster the comparability of different research results, we suggest that scholars consider a wage malus to account for unpaid work. Finally, we find that hourly wages collected through surveys tend to be lower than wages collected via browser plugins or other technical data collection methods." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hyötyläinen, Mika (2022): Labour-saving technology and advanced marginality – A study of unemployed workers' experiences of displacement in Finland. In: Critical Social Policy, Jg. 42, H. 2, S. 285-305. DOI:10.1177/02610183211024122

Abstract

"The article explores the experiences of people displaced from work by the introduction of labour-saving technology in Finland. Interviews with 13 unemployed individuals are used as data. The study is underpinned by a Marxist interpretation of potentially emancipatory technology under capitalism reduced to an instrument for reorganizing skilled workers into an exploitable, precarious cadre of surplus and abstract labour. Loïc Wacquant’s thesis on advanced marginality is used as a theoretical framework to unpack and understand the little-studied experience of being displaced from work by technology. The interviewees share a sense of growing alienation and social exclusion. Feeding these experiences are capricious changes in skill-demands and deskilling under automation and robotisation of work. The experiences are exacerbated by digitalised, vertiginous and isolating job-seeking and employment services that cast responsibility on the unemployed individual. While the participants of this study were not on the brink of acute or extreme socio-economic marginalisation, their experiences are rooted in the very same social, economic and political dynamics as advanced marginality. The findings of the study help anticipate the risk of advancing marginality faced by displaced workers, if social policy reforms are not carried out in the short term. In the long term, the findings support the argument that studies on labour-saving technologies and unemployment pay closer attention to the particular role of technology under capitalism." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jaiswal, Akanksha, C. Joe Arun & Arup Varma (2022): Rebooting employees: upskilling for artificial intelligence in multinational corporations. In: The International Journal of Human Resource Management, Jg. 33, H. 6, S. 1179-1208. DOI:10.1080/09585192.2021.1891114

Abstract

"Proponents of artificial intelligence (AI) have envisaged a scenario wherein intelligent machines would execute routine tasks performed by humans, thus, relieving them to engage in creative pursuits. While there is widespread fear of corresponding job losses, organizational think tanks vouch for the synergistic culmination of human–machine competencies. Using the dynamic skill, neo-human capital and AI job replacement theories, we contend that the introduction and adoption of AI calls for employees to upskill themselves. To determine the key skills deemed critical for the upskilling of employees, we interviewed 20 experienced professionals in multinational corporations (MNCs) in the information technology sector in India. Deploying Gioia’s methodology for qualitative analysis, our investigation revealed five critical skills for employee upskilling: data analysis, digital, complex cognitive, decision making and continuous learning skills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jestl, Stefan (2022): Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology. The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets. (WIIW working paper 215), Wien, 44 S.

Abstract

"This paper explores the effects of industrial robots and information and communication technology (ICT) on regional employment in EU countries. The empirical analysis relies on a harmonised comprehensive regional dataset, which combines business statistics and national and regional accounts data. This rich dataset enables us to provide detailed insights into the employment effects of automation and computerisation in EU regions for the period 2001-2016. The results suggest relatively weak effects on regional total employment dynamics. However, employment effects differ between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. Industrial robots show negative employment effects in local manufacturing industries, but positive employment effects in local non-manufacturing industries. While the negative effect is concentrated in particular local manufacturing industries, the positive effect operates in local service industries. IT investments show positive employment effects only in local manufacturing industries, while CT investments are shown to be irrelevant for employment dynamics. In contrast, software and database investments have had a predominantly negative impact on local employment in both local manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kapetaniou, Chrystalla & Christopher A. Pissarides (2022): Productive Robots and Industrial Employment: The Role of National Innovation Systems. (IZA discussion paper 15056), Bonn, 55 S.

Abstract

"In a model with robots, and automatable and complementary human tasks, we examine robot-labour substitutions and show how it they are influenced by a country's "innovation system". Substitution depends on demand and production elasticities, and other factors influenced by the innovation system. Making use of World Economic Forum data we estimate the relationship for thirteen countries and find that countries with poor innovation capabilities substitute robots for workers much more than countries with richer innovation capabilities, which generally complement them. In transport equipment and non-manufacturing robots and workers are stronger substitutes than in other manufacturing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kerst, Christian, Insa Weilage & Birgit Gehrke (2022): Bildung und Qualifikation als Grundlage der technologischen Leistungsfähigkeit Deutschlands 2022. (Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 2022-1), Berlin, 65 S.

Abstract

"Die Studie zu Bildung und Qualifikation wird 2022 als Kurzstudie vorgelegt. Sie enthält wie in den Vorjahren die zentralen Indikatoren zur Qualifikationsstruktur der Erwerbstätigen im internationalen Vergleich. Erneut zeigt sich, dass der Anteil der Erwerbstätigen mit formal hohen (tertiären) Qualifikationen (ISCED 5 bis 8) in Deutschland deutlich niedriger ausfällt als in den OECD-Vergleichsländern. Dafür ist in Deutschland der Anteil qualitativ hochwertiger Abschlüsse mit berufsbildender Komponente im mittleren Qualifikationsbereiche (ISCED 3 und 4) besonders hoch. Die Studie enthält im zweiten Teil eine umfassende Darstellung hochschulstatistischer Kennzahlen zur Studiennachfrage und zur Entwicklung der Absolventenzahlen. Ein besonderes Augenmerk liegt dabei erneut auf der insbesondere in den weiterführenden Studiengängen Master und Promotion hohen Bildungsbeteiligung internationaler Studierender. Hier werden mit der zurückgehenden internationalen Studiennachfrage erste Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie erkennbar. Im dritten Teil der Studie werden Daten zur individuellen Teilnahme an Weiterbildung sowie zu weiterbildungsaktiven Betrieben berichtet." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Koch, Michael & Ilya Manuylov (2022): Measuring the Technological Bias of Robot Adoption and its Implications for the Aggregate Labor Share. (University Aarhus. Economics working paper 2022,01), Aarhus, 26 S.

Abstract

"This paper investigates the technological bias of robot adoption using a rich panel data set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 25-year period. We apply the production function estimation when productivity is multidimensional to the case of an automating technology, to reveal the Hicks-neutral and labor-augmenting technological change brought about by robot adoption within firms. Our results indicate a causal effect of robots on Hicks-neutral and labor-augmenting components of productivity. The biased technological change turns out to be an important determinant of the decline in the aggregate share of labor in the Spanish manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kovacs, Oliver (2022): Inclusive Industry 4.0 in Europe—Japanese Lessons on Socially Responsible Industry 4.0. In: Social Sciences, Jg. 11, H. 1. DOI:10.3390/socsci11010029

Abstract

"This contribution addresses the puzzle of whether the anti-inclusive character of Industry 4.0 development can be tailored toward a socially more responsible path (smart automation). In doing so, the paper first underlines the crucial importance of a governance being capable of fostering inclusive growth by deciphering the nexus between flaring populism and non-inclusive growth. It then turns to the case of Japanese digitalization and Industry 4.0 development to show that adding a social innovation-dimension (smart automation) to Industry 4.0 is not impossible in supporting inclusive growth in Europe." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lindner, Attila, Balazs Murakozy, Balázs Reizer & Ragnhild Schreiner (2022): Firm-level technological change and skill demand. (CEP discussion paper 1857), London, 136 S.

Abstract

"We quantify the contribution of firm-level technological change to skill demand and aggregate inequality in the presence of imperfect competition in the labor market. We show that skill-biased technological change increases both the firm-level skill ratio and the skill premium, while other shocks (e.g. firm-specific output demand shocks) cannot explain the increase in both outcomes. We exploit administrative data and a large survey measuring a broad class of firm-level technological changes from Hungary and Norway. We estimate that the aggregate college premium increases by 6.1% in Norway and by 13.8% in Hungary as a result of the skill bias in technological change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Marczak, Martyna, Thomas Beissinger & Franziska Brall (2022): Technical Change, Task Allocation, and Labor Unions. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 15632), Bonn, 48 S.

Abstract

"We propose a novel framework that integrates the "task approach" for a more precise production modeling into the search-and-matching model with low- and high-skilled workers, and wage setting by labor unions. We establish the relationship between task reallocation and changes in wage pressure, and examine how skill- biased technical change (SBTC) affects the task composition, wages of both skill groups, and unemployment. In contrast to the canonical model with a fixed task allocation, low-skilled workers may be harmed in terms of either lower wages or higher unemployment depending on the relative task-related productivity profile of both worker types. We calibrate the model to the US and German data for the periods 1995-2005 and 2010-2017. The simulated effects of SBTC on low-skilled unemployment are largely consistent with observed developments. For example, US low-skilled unemployment increases due to SBTC in the earlier period and decreases after 2010." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Miguel, Pablo Sanz De, Tania Bazzani & Juan Arasanz (2022): Decommodifying Platform Work through an EU Definition of Worker. In: Glocalism: Journal of Culture, Politics and Innovation H. 3, S. 1-21. DOI:10.12893/gjcpi.2022.3.1

Abstract

"This article aims to highlight the process of recommodification characterizing the new forms of work today, in particular gig economy jobs, and the possible solutions that can be suggested to guarantee adequate protection. After having explained the importance of labour law to decommodify the new forms of work, in particular platform work, this article explains the different ways to legally classify them at the national level and the relevant contribution an EU definition of worker could bring to address the problem of recommodification. In doing this, the article also mentions some relevant aspects of the EU proposal for a directive in the field." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Mondolo, Jasmine (2022): The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature. In: Journal of Economic Surveys, Jg. 36, H. 4, S. 1027-1068. DOI:10.1111/joes.12469

Abstract

"The role played by technological change in employment trends has long been debated and investigated, but the evidence has proven to be inconclusive. This paper aims to shed light on this topic by critically reviewing a broad and heterogeneous body of literature on the employment implications of technical progress. To this purpose, it briefly discusses the main theories and models that underpin the empirical analysis and reviews the literature following two main criteria, namely, the proxy for technological change and the level of analysis. It also accounts for the effect of technical progress on both overall employment and on distinct occupational, educational and demographic groups. Particular attention is devoted to the results of some very recent studies that attempt to unfold the impact of complex automation technologies, especially robots, and to provide a preliminary account of the evolution, distribution, challenges and potential of Artificial Intelligence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Ocampo, Sergio (2022): A Task-Based Theory of Occupations with Multidimensional Heterogeneity. (Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) working paper series 2022-02), London, Ontario, 64 S.

Abstract

"I develop an assignment model of occupations with multidimensional heterogeneity in production tasks and worker skills. Tasks are distributed continuously in the skill space, whereas workers have a discrete distribution with a finite number of types. Occupations arise endogenously as bundles of tasks optimally assigned to a type of worker. The model allows us to study how occupations respond to changes in the economic environment, making it useful for analyzing the implications of automation, skill-biased technical change, offshoring, and worker training. Using the model, I characterize how wages, the marginal product of workers, the substitutability between worker types, and the labor share depend on the assignment of tasks to workers. I introduce automation as the choice of the optimal size and location of a mass of identical robots in the task space. Automation displaces workers by replacing them in the performance of tasks, generating a cascading effect on other workers as the boundaries of occupations are redrawn." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pulkka, Ville-Veikko & Miska Simanainen (2022): Socio-Economic Performance of European Welfare States in Technology-Induced Employment Scenarios. In: Journal of Social Policy, Jg. 51, H. 4, S. 920-944. DOI:10.1017/S0047279421000295

Abstract

"Studies assessing engineering bottlenecks of automation (Frey and Osborne, Reference Frey and Osborne2013, Reference Frey and Osborne2017; Arntz et al., Reference Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn2016; Nedelkoska and Quintini, Reference Nedelkoska and Quintini2018) have suggested that digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) may displace a considerable number of work tasks in the coming decades. While many authors (e.g. Brynjolfsson and McAfee, Reference Brynjolfsson and McAfee2014; Ford, Reference Ford2015) have noted that the digital transformation may also have substantial socio-economic implications for welfare states, researchers have not studied the question in much detail. Very little is currently known about the implications of divergent employment scenarios for government budgets, poverty or economic inequality. The main purpose of this paper is to fill this knowledge gap by comparing the socio-economic indicators in the European Union member states and the United Kingdom (henceforth the EU-28) in two ideal-type scenarios that reflect the divided expert view on long-term employment development. The pessimistic scenario assumes technological mass unemployment to constitute a permanent problem over the next two decades; while the optimistic one illustrates a future in which unemployment has been reduced by half, due to positive spillover effects deriving from the technological change." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ricci, Andrea, Claudia Vittori, Francesco Quartaro & Stefano Dughera (2022): Technological externalities and wages: new evidence from Italian provinces. (INAPP working paper / Istituto nazionale per l’analisi delle politiche pubbliche 85), Rom, 23 S.

Abstract

"In this paper, we investigate the relationship between local wages and the internal structure of the regional knowledge base. The purpose is to assess if the workers' compensations are related to the peculiarities of the technological space where they supply their labor services. To test this hypothesis, we apply the concepts of related and unrelated variety to the firms' patenting activity as to assess if wages grow more in a framework of 'knowledge deepening' (generated by firms innovating in related technological domains) or in one of 'knowledge widening' (generated by firms innovating in unrelated technological domains)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Sandher, Jeevun (2022): No Country for Non-Graduate Men: The Childish Roots of Adult Job Tasks & Employment. (SocArXiv papers), 79 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/sh58c

Abstract

"Male employment has declined across advanced economies as non-graduate men found it increasingly difficult to gain jobs in the wake of technological change and globalisation. This has led to rising earnings and, subsequently, income inequality. Female employment, by contrast, has risen in this period. Previous work has shown changing job task demands explain this pattern - with declining manual tasks penalising men and rising non-routine tasks benefiting women. In this paper, I test whether gendered differences in childhood & adolescent cognitive, social, perseverance, and emotional-health skills can help explain why men are less adept at non-routine tasks using long-term longitudinal data from the United Kingdom. I find that childhood & adolescent skills have a significant effect on adult job tasks and employment outcomes. Greater cognitive and childhood emotional-health skills lead to people performing more high-pay analytical and interactive job tasks as adults. Greater cognitive and non-cognitive skills are also associated with higher adult employment levels. Indicative calculations show that gendered differences in these childhood and adolescent skills explain an economically significant decline in the analytical and interactive job tasks performed by non-graduate men as well as their employment rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schulze-Cleven, Tobias & Todd E. Vachon (2022): The Future of Work and Workers: Insights from US Labour Studies. In: Global Labour Journal, Jg. 19, H. 1, S. 122-134. DOI:10.15173/glj.v13i1.5068

Abstract

"We have argued in this essay that it is during times of uncertainty such as this that ideas are most important. Ideas are the basis upon which actors can treat uncertainty as risk and engage in rational problem-solving. How can we best ensure that workers are protected and equity is centred in the process of institutional renewal? Drawing from a labour studies perspective on the future of work and workers, we have highlighted several crucial considerations and principles that have been missing from most contemporary US-based discussions and that we suspect can travel beyond the borders of the United States. Together, we believe, these insights can help guide attempts to build a future in which work is rewarding and in which workers have a voice about how it is conducted. Collaborative research efforts and partnerships between academics and practitioners to explore these elements and others are one way through which shared visions can be developed and the seeds for a more just and equitable future may be planted. We look forward to participating in such conversations in the days and years ahead and encourage you to join as well." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Squicciarini, Mariagrazia & Jacopo Staccioli (2022): Labour-saving technologies and employment levels. Are robots really making workers redundant? (OECD science, technology and industry policy papers 124), Paris, 36 S. DOI:10.1787/9ce86ca5-en

Abstract

"This paper exploits natural language processing techniques to detect explicit labour-saving goals in inventive efforts in robotics and assess their relevance for different occupational profiles and the impact on employment levels. The analysis relies on patents published by the European Patent Office between 1978 and 2019 and firm-level data from ORBIS® IP. It investigates innovative actors engaged in labour-saving technologies and their economic environment (identity, location, industry), and identifies technological fields and associated occupations which are particularly exposed to them. Labour-saving patents are concentrated in Japan, the United States, and Italy, and seem to affect low-skilled and blue-collar jobs, along with highly cognitive and specialised professions. A preliminary analysis does not find an appreciable negative effect on employment shares in OECD countries over the past decade, but further research to econometrically investigate the relationship between labour-saving technological developments and employment would be helpful." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Terry, Esme, Abigail Marks, Arek Dakessian & Dimitris Christopoulos (2022): Emotional Labour and the Autonomy of Dependent Self-Employed Workers: The Limitations of Digital Managerial Control in the Home Credit Sector. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 36, H. 4, S. 665-682. DOI:10.1177/0950017020979504

Abstract

"Changes to the labour process in the home credit sector have exposed the industry’s agency workforce to increased levels of digital managerial control through the introduction of lending applications and algorithmic decision-making techniques. This article highlights the heterogeneous nature of the impact of digitalisation on the labour process and worker autonomy – specifically, in terms of workers’ engagement in unquantified emotional labour. By considering the limitations of digital control in relation to qualitative elements of the labour process, it becomes evident that emotional labour has the scope to be a source of autonomy for dependent self-employed workers when set against a backdrop of heightened digital control. This article therefore contributes to ongoing labour process debates surrounding digitalisation, quantified workers and digital managerial control." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Yakymovych, Yaroslav (2022): Consequences of job loss for routine workers. (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy 2022,15), Uppsala, 39 S.

Abstract

"Routine-biased technological change has led to the worsening of labour market prospects for workers in exposed occupations as their work has increasingly been done by machines. Routine workers who have lost their jobs in mass displacement events are likely to have been a particularly affected group, due to potential difficulties in finding new employment that matches their skills and experience. In this study, the annual earnings, employment, monthly wages and days of unemployment of displaced routine workers are compared to those of displaced non-routine workers using Swedish matched employer-employee data. The results show substantial routine-occupation penalties among displaced workers, which persist in the medium to long term. Compared to displaced non-routine workers, displaced routine workers lose an additional year's worth of pre-displacement earnings and spend 180 more days in unemployment. A possible channel for this effect is the loss of occupation- and industry-specific human capital, as routine workers are unable to find jobs similar to those they had before becoming displaced. I do not find evidence that switching to a non-routine occupation reduces routine workers' losses, but rather there are indications that switchers do worse in the short-to-medium run. The findings suggest that the effects of labour-replacing technological change on the most exposed individuals can be severe and difficult to ameliorate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Zuazu-Bermejo, Izaskun (2022): Robots and women in manufacturing employment. (ifso working paper 19), Duisburg: University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socio-Economics (ifso), 51 S.

Abstract

"Automation transforms the combination of tasks performed by machines and humans, and reshapes existing labour markets by replacing jobs and creating new ones. The implications of these transformations are likely to differ by gender as women and men concentrate in different tasks and jobs. This article argues that a gender-biased technological change framework will advance our understanding of the differentiated role of robots in labour market outcomes of women and men. The article empirically analyses the impact of industrial robots in gender segregation and employment levels of women and men using an industry-level disaggregated panel dataset of 11 industries in 14 developed and developing countries during 1993-2015. Within fixed-effects and instrumental variables estimates suggest that robotization increases the share of women in manufacturing employment. However, this impact hinges upon female labour force participation. As female labour participation rate increases, robots are associated with a negative effect of robotization in the female share of manufacturing employment. Results also show that the impact of robotization varies at different levels of economic development. The estimates point to a reducing employment effects of robotization, although the effect for women is larger. The results are robust to a variety of various sensitivity checks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2021): Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality. (NBER working paper 28920), Cambridge, MA, 106 S. DOI:10.3386/w28920

Abstract

"We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the US wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by the relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across a number of industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from employment opportunities for which they have comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in education differentials between 1980 and 2016. Our task displacement variable captures the effects of automation technologies (and to a lesser degree offshoring) rather than those of rising market power, markups or deunionization, which themselves do not appear to play a major role in US wage inequality. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of task displacement (which include induced changes in industry composition and ripple effects as tasks are reallocated across different groups). Our quantitative evaluation based on this methodology explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand-in-hand with modest productivity gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Aksoy, Cevat Giray, Berkay Özcan & Julia Philipp (2021): Robots and the Gender Pay Gap in Europe. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 134. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103693

Abstract

"Could robotization make the gender pay gap worse? We provide the first large-scale evidence on the impact of industrial robots on the gender pay gap using data from 20 European countries. We show that robot adoption increases both male and female earnings but also increases the gender pay gap. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we find that a ten percent increase in robotization leads to a 1.8 percent increase in the gender pay gap. These results are driven by countries with high initial levels of gender inequality and can be explained by the fact that men at medium- and high-skill occupations disproportionately benefit from robotization, through a productivity effect. We rule out the possibility that our results are driven by mechanical changes in the gender composition of the workforce." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))

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Alekseeva, Liudmila, José Azar, Mireia Giné, Sampsa Samila & Bledi Taska (2021): The demand for AI skills in the labor market. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 71. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102002

Abstract

"Using detailed data on skill requirements in online vacancies, we estimate the demand for AI specialists across occupations, sectors, and firms. We document a dramatic increase in the demand for AI skills over 2010–2019 in the U.S. economy across most industries and occupations. The demand is highest in IT occupations, followed by architecture and engineering, scientific, and management occupations. Firms with larger market capitalization, higher cash holdings, and higher investments in R&D have a higher demand for AI skills. We also document a wage premium of 11% for job postings that require AI skills within the same firm and 5% within the same job title. Managerial occupations have the highest wage premium for AI skills. Firms demanding AI skills more intensively also offer higher salaries in non-AI jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))

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Belloc, Filippo, Gabriel Burdin, Luca Cattani, William Ellis & Fabio Landini (2021): Coevolution of Job Automation Risk and Workplace Governance. (IZA discussion paper 14788), Bonn, 58 S.

Abstract

"This paper analyzes the interplay between the allocation of authority within firms and workers' exposure to automation risk. We propose an evolutionary model to study the complementary fit of job design and workplace governance as resulting from the adoption of worker voice institutions, in particular employee representation (ER). Two organisational conventions are likely to emerge in our framework: in one, workplace governance is based on ER and job designs have low automation risk; in the other, ER is absent and workers are involved in automation-prone production tasks. Using data from a large sample of European workers, we document that automation risk is negatively associated with the presence of ER, consistently with our theoretical framework. Our analysis helps to rationalize the historical experience of Nordic countries, where simultaneous experimentation with codetermination rights and job enrichment programs has taken place. Policy debates about the consequences of automation on labour organization should avoid technological determinism and devote more attention to socio-institutional factors shaping the future of work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bertinelli, Luisito, Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout (2021): Labor Market Effects Of Technology Shocks Biased Toward The Traded Sector. (Documents de travail / Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée 2021-09), Sraßburg, 154 S.

Abstract

"Motivated by recent evidence pointing at an increasing contribution of asymmetric shocks across sectors to economic fluctuations, we explore the labor market effects of technology shocks biased toward the traded sector. Our VAR evidence for seventeen OECD countries reveals that the non-traded sector alone drives the increase in total hours worked following a technology shock that increases permanently traded relative to non-traded TFP. The shock gives rise to a reallocation of labor which contributes to 35% on average of the rise in non-traded hours worked. Both labor reallocation and variations in labor income shares are found empirically connected with factor-biased technological change. Our quantitative analysis shows that a two-sector open economy model with flexible prices can reproduce the labor market effects we document empirically once we allow for technological change biased toward labor together with additional specific elements. When calibrating the model to country-specific data, its ability to account for the cross-country reallocation and redistributive effects we estimate increases once we let factor-biased technological change vary between sectors and across countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Borelli, Silvia & Sofia Gualandi (2021): Which social security regime for platform workers in Italy? In: International social security review, Jg. 74, H. 3/4, S. 133-154. DOI:10.1111/issr.12281

Abstract

"Dieser Artikel wirft ein Licht auf die Debatte über die Regeln der sozialen Sicherheit, die für Plattformbeschäftigte in Italien gelten. Da die Systeme der sozialen Sicherheit nach Beschäftigungsart und Selbstständigkeit unterscheiden, werden hier Präzedenzfälle im italienischen Recht beschrieben, in denen es um den Beschäftigungsstatus von Plattformarbeitnehmern geht. Sodann werden die italienische Gesetzgebung, das Fallrecht und die Tarifverträge im Zusammenhang mit dem Arbeitsschutz skizziert, und es wird erklärt, auf welche Deckung Beschäftigte von Plattformen bei Arbeitsunfällen oder Berufskrankheiten Anrecht haben. Im Vordergrund stehen dabei die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie. Außerdem werden die beiden wichtigsten Mindesteinkommenssysteme Italiens und die entsprechenden wissenschaftlichen Debatten nachgezeichnet, und es wird darauf eingegangen, welche Auswirkungen diese Systeme darauf haben, dass die digitalen Arbeitsplattformen sich ihrer Verantwortung hinsichtlich der Arbeitnehmerrechte, einschließlich des Zugangs zu einem angemessenen Sozialschutz, entziehen können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons)

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Busemeyer, Marius R. & Tobias Tober (2021): Sozialtransfers, Weiterbildung, kürzere Arbeitszeiten? Die sozialpolitischen Prioritäten von Arbeitnehmer*innen im Zeitalter der Automatisierung. (Policy paper / Universität Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality" 08 (DE)), Konstanz, 9 S.

Abstract

"Robotisierung, Automatisierung und Digitalisierung verändern die Arbeitsmärkte weltweit - umso mehr, seit die Pandemie die Abhängigkeit unserer Wirtschaft von bestimmten Berufszweigen aufgezeigt hat. Welche Antworten auf diesen Wandel erwarten die Bürger*innen von ihren Regierungen? Unsere Studie in 24 OECD-Ländern zeigt: Es herrscht große Besorgnis über technologiebedingte Arbeitsplatzrisiken, der technologische Wandel weckt aber auch Hoffnungen. Aus- und Fortbildungsmaßnahmen stoßen auf breite Zustimmung. Diejenigen, deren Arbeitsplatz aber konkret in Gefahr ist, erwarten für die Zeit der Arbeitslosigkeit vor allem kurzfristige, materielle Unterstützung. Die Politik sollte darum eine Balance zwischen notwendigen Investitionen in die digitale Wissensökonomie und sozialen Transferleistungen finden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Cette, Gilbert, Aurélien Devillard & Vincenzo Spiezia (2021): The contribution of robots to productivity growth in 30 OECD countries over 1975–2019. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 200. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109762

Abstract

"Using a new and original database, our paper contributes to the growth accounting literature by singling out the contribution of robots through two channels: capital deepening and TFP. The contribution of robots to productivity growth through capital deepening and TFP appears to have been significant in Germany and Japan in the sub-period 1975–1995 and in several Eastern European countries in 2005–2019. However, robotization does not appear to be the source of a significant revival in productivity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))

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Chernoff, Alex & Casey Warman (2021): COVID-19 and Implications for Automation. (Staff working paper / Bank of Canada 2021,25), Ottawa, 29 S.

Abstract

"COVID-19 may accelerate the automation of jobs as employers invest in technology to safeguard against pandemics. We identify occupations that have high automation potential and also exhibit a high risk of viral infection. We examine regional variation in terms of which U.S. local labor markets are most at risk. Next, we outline the differential impacts COVID-19 may have on different demographic groups. We find that the highest-risk occupations in the U.S. are those held by females with mid- to low wage and education levels. Using comparable data for 25 other countries, we also find that women in this demographic are at the highest risk internationally. We examine monthly employment data from the U.S. and find that women in high-risk occupations experienced a larger initial decline in employment and a weaker recovery during the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cnossen, Femke, Matloob Piracha & Guy Tchuente (2021): Learning the Right Skill: The Returns to Social, Technical and Basic Skills for Middle-Educated Graduates. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 979), Essen, 42 S.

Abstract

"Technological change and globalization have sparked debates on the changing demand for skills in western labour markets, especially for middle skilled workers who have seen their tasks replaced. This paper provides a new data set, which is based on text data from curricula of the entire Dutch vocational education system. We extract verbs and nouns to measure social, technical and basic skills in a novel way. This method allows us to uncover the skills middle-skilled students learn in school. Using this data, we show that skill returns vary across students specialized in STEM, economics or health, as well as across sectors of employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kilhoffer, Zachary, Leonie Westhoff, Doina Postica & Farzaneh Shamsfakhr (2021): Digital labour platforms in the EU. Mapping and business models : final report. Brüssel, 150 S. DOI:10.2767/224624

Abstract

"This is the final report of the study on ‘Digital labour platforms in the EU: Mapping and business models’ for the Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (DG EMPL). In total, 516 active and another 74 inactive digital labour platforms (DLPs) in the EU27 have been identified. For each of these DLPs, information on the business model has been collected and analysed. Moreover, for a sample of 38 DLPs, details on the working conditions have been collected and analysed for one or more countries. This study illustrates that DLPs have grown rapidly in the last five years, though still small in size with EUR 14 billion in activity. DLPs act as intermediaries for a large range of activities, including freelance, contest-based, microtask, taxi, delivery, home and professional services. DLPs intermediating the same services often follow similar business models, nevertheless the working conditions can differ between these platforms and even for the same platform across countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Demirel, Pelin, Ekaterina Nemkova & Rebecca Taylor (2021): Reproducing Global Inequalities in the Online Labour Market: Valuing Capital in the Design Field. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 35, H. 5, S. 914-930. DOI:10.1177/0950017020942447

Abstract

"Millions of freelancers work on digital platforms in the online labour market (OLM). The OLM´s capacity to both undermine and reproduce labour inequalities is a theme in contemporary platform economy debates. What is less well understood is how processes of social (re)production take place in practice for diverse freelancers on global platforms. Drawing on a study of freelance designers, we use Bourdieus notions of capital and field to explore the specific rules of the game and the symbolic valuing of skills and identities that secure legitimacy and advantage in the OLM. We contribute to contemporary debates by illuminating the power of Global North actors to shape freelancer positions and hierarchies in the online design field. The cost advantages of Global South workers are counterbalanced by the symbolic legitimising of specific cultural and social practices (specifically in relation to language) and the devaluing of others." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Domini, Giacomo, Marco Grazzi, Daniele Moschella & Tania Treibich (2021): For Whom the Bell Tolls: The Firm-Level Effects of Automation on Wage and Gender Inequality. (JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology 2021,15), Sevilla, 43 S.

Abstract

"This paper investigates the impact of investment in automation- and AI- related goods on within-firm wage inequality in the French economy during the period 2002-2017. We document that most of wage inequality in France is accounted for by differences among workers belonging to the same firm, rather than by differences between sectors, firms, and occupations. Using an event-study approach on a sample of firms importing automation and AI-related goods, we find that spike events related to the adoption of automation- or AI-related capital goods are not followed by an increase in within-firm wage nor in gender inequality. Instead, wages increase by 1% three years after the events at different percentiles of the distribution. Our findings are not linked to a rent-sharing behavior of firms obtaining productivity gains from automation or AI adoption. Instead, if the wage gains do not differ across workers along the wage distribution, worker heterogeneity is still present. Indeed, aligned with the framework in Abowd et al.(1999b), most of the overall wage increase is due to the hiring of new employees. This adds to previous findings showing picture of a `labor friendly' effect of the latest wave of new technologies within adopting firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Döhring, Björn, Atanas Hristov, Christoph Maier, Werner Röger & Anna Thum-Thysen (2021): COVID-19 acceleration in digitalisation, aggregate productivity growth and the functional income distribution. In: International economics and economic policy, Jg. 18, H. 3, S. 571-604. DOI:10.1007/s10368-021-00511-8

Abstract

"This paper characterises the conventional and the digital sector of the EU economy since the late 90s and introduces a two sector growth model which highlights structural differences between the two sectors. In contrast to conventional goods and services, digital goods and services are more easily scalable but require more upfront intangible investment. These features require consideration of fixed costs and a departure from perfect competition and raise issues about market entry. Another important dimension is the skill demand of both sectors, with the latter requiring a larger share of workers with digital skills. Since COVID-19 is expected to induce a persistent increase of demand for digital services, we use this model to estimate the likely economic impacts. We are in particular interested how the digital transition is affecting the labour market and the functional distribution of income. The paper shows how the distribution of economic rents between workers with digital skills and platforms is determined by labour supply conditions and entry barriers. This suggests that there is a role for competition policy and labour market policies to support the digital transition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Erebak, Serkan & Tülay Turgut (2021): Anxiety about the speed of technological development: Effects on job insecurity, time estimation, and automation level preference. In: The Journal of High Technology Management Research, Jg. 32, H. 2. DOI:10.1016/j.hitech.2021.100419

Abstract

"Technology is developing rapidly. Every year, new products and services are produced that may affect the way employees work in organizations. Following and adapting to technological developments may be an individual challenge. People may experience anxiety in this process. Also, automation technologies may lead to a perception that individuals may lose their jobs soon. This may affect employees' choices in the possible human-robot collaboration process. In this study, we reached out to employees from various sectors via internet survey. The statistical analyses showed that concerns about the speed of technology affects employees' job insecurity caused by robots and the perception of job insecurity related to their work affects the level of automation they prefer in robots. New studies on this subject may contribute to the efficiency of human-robot cooperation which is expected to happen soon. Also, it may contribute to highlighting the anxiety experienced by employees during the development of technology." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Freier, Carolin, Joachim König, Arne Manzeschke & Barbara Städtler-Mach (Hrsg.) (2021): Gegenwart und Zukunft sozialer Dienstleistungsarbeit. Chancen und Risiken der Digitalisierung in der Sozialwirtschaft. (Perspektiven Sozialwirtschaft und Sozialmanagement), Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 477 S. DOI:10.1007/978-3-658-32556-5

Abstract

"Der Band skizziert und diskutiert den digitalen Wandel in der Sozialwirtschaft. Internationale Beiträge aus der Praxis und Wissenschaft Sozialer Arbeit sowie dem Gesundheits- und Pflegebereich beschreiben, wie digitale Technologien den Alltag von Beschäftigten und deren Klient*innen prägen (werden). Enorme Chancen und gleichzeitig erhebliche Risiken dieses Wandels werden dabei debattiert, etwa mit Blick auf die Arbeitswelten, Professionen, soziale Teilhabe und daraus abzuleitende ethische Implikationen. Den Leser*innen bieten sich Praxiseinblicke, wissenschaftliche Analysen, Handlungsempfehlungen und Reflexionspotentiale, um soziale Dienstleistungsarbeit im Heute und Morgen (mit) zu gestalten." (Autorenreferat, © 2021 Springer)

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Frey, Philipp (2021): Visions of Automation: A Comparative Discussion of Two Approaches. In: Societies, Jg. 11, H. 2, S. 1-21. DOI:10.3390/soc11020063

Abstract

"In recent years, fears of technological unemployment have (re-)emerged strongly in public discourse. In response, policymakers and researchers have tried to gain a more nuanced understanding of the future of work in an age of automation. In these debates, it has become common practice to signal expertise on automation by referencing a plethora of studies, rather than limiting oneself to the careful discussion of a small number of selected papers whose epistemic limitations one might actually be able to grasp comprehensively. This paper addresses this shortcoming. I will first give a very general introduction to the state of the art of research on potentials for automation, using the German case as an example. I will then provide an in-depth analysis of two studies of the field that exemplify two competing approaches to the question of automatability: studies that limit themselves to discussing technological potentials for automation on the one hand, and macroeconomic scenario methods that claim to provide more concrete assessments of the connection between job losses (or job creation) and technological innovation in the future on the other. Finally, I will provide insight into the epistemic limitations and the specific vices and virtues of these two approaches from the perspective of critical social theory, thereby contributing to a more enlightened and reflexive debate on the future of automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fudurich, James, Lena Suchanek & Lise Pichette (2021): Adoption of digital technologies. Insights from a global survey initiative. (Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada 2021-7), Ottawa, 44 S.

Abstract

"The Bank of Canada, together with a global network of central banks, recently surveyed more than 6,000 firms from around the world. Using the survey data, this paper assesses the effects of digitalization on firms’ pricing and employment decisions. Specifically, we examine firms’ expectations about how their adoption of digital technologies—such as e-commerce, cloud computing, big data, 3-D printing, the Internet of Things, robotics and artificial intelligence— will affect their prices and hiring plans. Digital technologies influence firms’ operations in several ways that can often offset each other. This makes it difficult to pin down the overall impact on prices. Survey results for Canada suggest that some firms expect some downward pressure on prices from (1) efficiency gains, for example from automation, made possible by digital technology and (2) increased online competition and cost compression in the supply chain. Other firms expect that the value added to their products from adopting digital technologies will allow them to charge higher prices. In addition, some firms anticipate that they will have to pass on the costs of adoption to customers. Firms also expect a marginal negative effect on their employment over the next three years as a result of technology-induced automation or productivity gains. This negative effect will largely be offset by more hiring of digital talent or to accommodate stronger sales. Using matching techniques to control for differences in sample size and composition as well as survey frames, we find that, compared with small and medium-sized firms, large firms are more likely to adopt digital technologies and more likely to expect negative effects on both employment and prices" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Georgieff, Alexandre & Anna Milanez (2021): What happened to jobs at high risk of automation? (OECD social, employment and migration working papers 255), Paris, 67 S. DOI:10.1787/10bc97f4-en

Abstract

"This study looks at what happened to jobs at risk of automation over the past decade and across 21 countries. There is no support for net job destruction at the broad country level. All countries experienced employment growth over the past decade and countries that faced higher automation risk back in 2012 experienced higher employment growth over the subsequent period. At the occupational level, however, employment growth has been much lower in jobs at high risk of automation (6%) than in jobs at low risk (18%). Low-educated workers were more concentrated in high-risk occupations in 2012 and have become even more concentrated in these occupations since then. In spite of this, the low growth in jobs in high-risk occupations has not led to a drop in the employment rate of low-educated workers relative to that of other education groups. This is largely because the number of low-educated workers has fallen in line with the demand for these workers. Going forward, however, the risk of automation is increasingly falling on low-educated workers and the COVID-19 crisis may have accelerated automation, as companies reduce reliance on human labour and contact between workers, or re-shore some production." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Georgieff, Alexandre & Raphaela Hyee (2021): Artificial intelligence and employment: New cross-country evidence. (OECD social, employment and migration working papers 265), Paris, 60 S. DOI:10.1787/c2c1d276-en

Abstract

"Recent years have seen impressive advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and this has stoked renewed concern about the impact of technological progress on the labour market, including on worker displacement. This paper looks at the possible links between AI and employment in a cross-country context. It adapts the AI occupational impact measure developed by Felten, Raj and Seamans (2018[1]; 2019[2]) – an indicator measuring the degree to which occupations rely on abilities in which AI has made the most progress – and extends it to 23 OECD countries. The indicator, which allows for variations in AI exposure across occupations, as well as within occupations and across countries, is then matched to Labour Force Surveys, to analyse the relationship with employment. Over the period 2012-2019, employment grew in nearly all occupations analysed. Overall, there appears to be no clear relationship between AI exposure and employment growth. However, in occupations where computer use is high, greater exposure to AI is linked to higher employment growth. The paper also finds suggestive evidence of a negative relationship between AI exposure and growth in average hours worked among occupations where computer use is low. While further research is needed to identify the exact mechanisms driving these results, one possible explanation is that partial automation by AI increases productivity directly as well as by shifting the task composition of occupations towards higher value-added tasks. This increase in labour productivity and output counteracts the direct displacement effect of automation through AI for workers with good digital skills, who may find it easier to use AI effectively and shift to non-automatable, higher-value added tasks within their occupations. The opposite could be true for workers with poor digital skills, who may not be able to interact efficiently with AI and thus reap all potential benefits of the technology." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Guerrero, María Luisa Pérez & Miguel Rodríguez-Piñero Royo (2021): Social security for Spain's platform workers: Self-employed or employee status? In: International social security review, Jg. 74, H. 3/4, S. 177-194. DOI:10.1111/issr.12283

Abstract

"Bisherige Studien zum Schutz von Plattformarbeitnehmern in Spanien haben sich auf Fahrradkuriere konzentriert, die Mahlzeiten zu Kunden nach Hause liefern und deren Dienstleistungen über einige der bekanntesten Plattformen der sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Szene des Landes angeboten werden. Die meisten dieser Arbeitnehmer sind durch das System der sozialen Sicherheit für Selbstständige gedeckt. In einem Urteil des Obersten Gerichtshofs vom 25. September 2020 wurde das Verhältnis zwischen Glovo und seinen Kurieren jedoch als Angestelltenverhältnis gewertet. Dieses Urteil hat die Perspektiven für digitale Plattformen verändert und dazu geführt, dass die spanische Regierung die Plattformarbeit in Spanien nun reguliert. Dennoch gelten die staatlichen Regeln nur für Kuriere, obwohl auch viele andere Beschäftigtengruppen in derselben Lage sind. Dieser Artikel befasst sich mit der derzeitigen Stellung der spanischen Plattformbeschäftigten innerhalb des Systems der sozialen Sicherheit und mit den jüngsten Gerichtsurteilen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons)

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Haidar, Julieta & Miska Keune (Hrsg.) (2021): Work and Labour Relations in Global Platform Capitalism. (ILERA Publication series), Cheltenham: Elgar, 288 S. DOI:10.4337/9781802205138

Abstract

"This engaging and timely book provides an in-depth analysis of work and labour relations within global platform capitalism with a specific focus on digital platforms that organise labour processes, known as labour platforms. Well-respected contributors thoroughly examine both online and offline platforms, their distinct differences and the important roles they play for both large transnational companies and those with a smaller global reach." (Author's abstract, © Edward Elgar Publishing) ((en))

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Haslberger, Matthias (2021): Routine-biased technological change does not always lead to polarisation: Evidence from 10 OECD countries, 1995–2013. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 74. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2021.100623

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Im, Zhen Jie & Kathrin Komp-Leukkunen (2021): Automation and public support for workfare. In: Journal of European Social Policy, Jg. 31, H. 4, S. 457-472. DOI:10.1177/09589287211002432

Abstract

"Automation has permeated workplaces and threatens labour in the production process. Concurrently, European governments have expanded workfare which imposes stringent conditions and sanctions on unemployed workers after the onset of austerity. We explore how automation risk affects workfare support. Recent research finds that most routine workers ‘survive’ in their routine jobs. Despite avoiding unemployment, routine workers may face the threat of status decline as automation erodes the value of routine work. They may respond by differentiating themselves from lower-ranked social groups such as unemployed workers. Such boundary drawing may manifest views that the unemployed are less deserving of welfare. We thus posit that routine workers may support workfare to assuage their fears of status decline. We further explore if worsening economic hardship, proxied as rising unemployment rates over time, increases their support for workfare. We conducted pooled and multilevel analyses using data from the European Social Survey. We find that routine workers significantly support workfare. We also find that routine workers support workfare when economic hardship worsens, but oppose it when conditions ameliorate. Findings suggest that status threat is an important channel by which automation risk may affect workfare support, but its impact depends on social context, hence yielding country-differences. Worsening economic hardship may exacerbate routine workers’ status decline fears, and intensify their harsh views against unemployed workers. Automation risk may thus have a greater impact on workfare support under such conditions. Policymakers can use these findings to assess how workfare may be publicly received and under various economic conditions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jacqueson, Catherine (2021): Platform work, social protection and flexicurity in Denmark. In: International social security review, Jg. 74, H. 3/4, S. 39-59. DOI:10.1111/issr.12277

Abstract

"Sind die „Arbeitnehmer“ von Online-Plattformen wirksam und angemessen gegen soziale Risiken und gegen Arbeitsmarktrisiken geschützt? Der Artikel untersucht diese grundlegende Frage vor dem Hintergrund des dänischen Arbeitsmarkts, der dafür bekannt ist, dass die Arbeitsplatzunsicherheit hoch, das System der sozialen Sicherheit jedoch eher großzügig ist. Die Autorin kommt zum Schluss, dass das gesetzliche System der sozialen Sicherheit Dänemarks eine notwendige Abfederung gegen Risiken bietet, aber auch Schutzlücken aufweist, was die Deckungswirksamkeit und die Leistungsangemessenheit des Systems in Frage stellt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons)

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Kariel, Joel (2021): Job Creators or Job Killers? Heterogeneous Effects of Industrial Robots on UK Employment. In: Labour, Jg. 35, H. 1, S. 52-78. DOI:10.1111/labr.12192

Abstract

"There is concern about robots taking our jobs. This analysis looks at the impact of industrial robot adoption in the UK. Using a novel instrument to deal with endogeneity of robot adoption, estimates suggest that higher robot use is associated with increased employment and some evidence of a positive effect on part-time pay, contrary to evidence from other countries. However, there is a large amount of heterogeneity across industries. The results show that industrial robots have directly replaced workers in automobile manufacturing. On the other hand, they have had positive effects on other areas of the labour market such as services." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))