Zitatform

Carr, Michael D. & Emily E. Wiemers (2016): The decline in lifetime earnings mobility in the U.S. Evidence from survey-linked administrative data. Chicago, 40 S.

Abstract

"There is a sizable literature that examines whether intergenerational mobility has declined as inequality has increased. This literature is motivated by a desire to understand whether increasing inequality has made it more difficult to rise from humble origins. An equally important component of economic mobility is the ability to move across the earnings distribution during one's own working years. We use survey-linked administrative data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine trends in lifetime earnings mobility since 1981. These unique data allow us to produce the first estimates of lifetime earnings mobility from administrative earnings across gender and education subgroups. In contrast to much of the existing literature, we find that lifetime earnings mobility has declined since the early 1980s as inequality has increased. Declines in lifetime earnings mobility are largest for college-educated workers though mobility has declined for men and women and across the distribution of educational attainment. One striking feature is the decline in upward mobility among middle-class workers, even those with a college degree. Across the distribution of educational attainment, the likelihood of moving to the top deciles of the earnings distribution for workers who start their career in the middle of the earnings distribution has declined by approximately 20% since the early 1980s." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Daly, Moira, Dmytro Hryshko & Iourii Manovskii (2016): Improving the measurement of earnings dynamics. (NBER working paper 22938), Cambrige, Mass., 58 S. DOI:10.3386/w22938

Abstract

"The stochastic process for earnings is the key element of incomplete markets models in modern quantitative macroeconomics. We show that a simple modification of the canonical process used in the literature leads to a dramatic improvement in the measurement of earnings dynamics in administrative and survey data alike. Empirically, earnings at the start or end of earnings spells are lower and more volatile than the observations in the interior of earnings histories, reflecting the effects of working less than the full year as well as deviations of wages due to e.g. tenure effects. Ignoring these properties of earnings, as is standard in the literature, leads to a substantial mismeasurement of the variances of permanent and transitory shocks and induces the large and widely documented divergence in the estimates of these variances based on fitting the earnings moments in levels or growth rates. Accounting for these effects enables more accurate analysis using quantitative models with permanent and transitory earnings risk, and improves empirical estimates of consumption insurance against permanent earnings shocks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Leung, Man Yee Mallory, Fane Groes & Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis (2016): The relationship between age at first birth and mother's lifetime earnings. Evidence from Danish data. In: PLoS one, Jg. 11, H. 1, S. 1-13. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0146989

Abstract

"Background: Having children creates career interruptions and reductions in labor income for women. This study documents the relation between the age at first birth (AFB) and women's labor income. We study these dynamics in the short run (i.e. ratio between labor income at AFB and two years prior to AFB) and long run (i.e., positive/negative differences in total lifetime labor income).
Methods: Using unique Danish administrative register data for the entire Danish population, we estimate the age-income profiles separately for college and non-college women conditional on marital status, and mothers' age at first birth (AFB). We compute the lifetime labor income differentials by taking the differences between the labor income of women with and without children at each AFB.
Results: The short-run loss in labor income, defined as the difference in percentages between the income earned two years prior to AFB and income earned at AFB, ranges from 37% to 65% for college women and from 40% to 53% for non-college women. These losses decrease monotonically with respect to AFB for both education groups. Our results on the lifetime labor income differentials between mothers and women without children also show a net effect that is monotonic (from negative to positive) in AFB. With AFB<25, the lifetime labor income loss for college women is -204%of their average annual labor income and this figure is -252% for non-college women. There are lifetime labor income gains with AFB>31. The largest gains for college women are 13% of their average annual income and this figure is 50% for non-college women.
Conclusion: Women have a large and unambiguous short-run reduction in labor income at their AFB. In terms of lifetime labor income, both college and non-college women, compared to childless women, are associated with lower income of more than twice their respective average annual income when bearing a child at AFB<25. In other words, women with AFB<25 are associated with a lower lifetime income of more than two years of annual labor income. The lifetime labor incomes for college and non-college women associated with AFB>31 are relatively higher." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Nybom, Martin & Jan Stuhler (2016): Heterogeneous income profiles and life-cycle bias in intergenerational mobility estimation. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 51, H. 1, S. 239-268. DOI:10.3368/jhr.51.1.239

Abstract

"Using short snapshots of income in intergenerational mobility estimation causes 'lifecycle bias' if the snapshots cannot mimic lifetime outcomes. We use uniquely long series of Swedish income data to show that this bias is large and to examine current strategies to reduce it. We confirm that lifecycle bias is smallest when incomes are measured around midlife, a central implication from a widely adopted generalization of the classical errors-in-variables model. However, the model cannot predict the ideal age of measurement or eliminate lifecycle bias at other ages. We illustrate how extensions of this model can reduce the bias further." (Author's abstract, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))

Zitatform

Stüber, Heiko (2016): Berufsspezifische Lebensentgelte: Qualifikation zahlt sich aus. (IAB-Kurzbericht 17/2016), Nürnberg, 8 S.

Abstract

"Bildung zahlt sich generell aus - bei den Einkommen im Laufe eines Erwerbslebens spielen die Berufswahl und eine qualifikationsadäquate Beschäftigung allerdings eine wesentliche Rolle. Berechnungen des IAB belegen, dass die durchschnittlichen Brutto-Lebensentgelte mit dem Anforderungsniveau der Tätigkeiten steigen. Daneben ist auch der Beruf selbst relevant für die Höhe der Einkommen. Der Autor zeigt für vier Anforderungsniveaus (Experten, Spezialisten, Fachkräfte und Helfer) sowie für vier Qualifikationsniveaus (Hochschulabschluss, Fortbildungsabschluss, Berufsausbildung und ohne Berufsausbildung), welche Brutto-Lebenseinkommen in unterschiedlichen Berufen durchschnittlich erzielt werden können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Suprinovič, Olga, Stefan Schneck & Rosemarie Kay (2016): Einmal Unternehmer, immer Unternehmer? Selbstständigkeit im Erwerbsverlauf. (IfM-Materialien 248), Bonn, 68 S.

Abstract

"Die vorliegende Studie analysiert die Erwerbsverläufe von Selbstständigen unterschiedlicher Geburtskohorten. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die meisten Selbstständigen nur eine Selbstständigkeitsphase in ihrem Lebensverlauf aufweisen und ein großer Anteil von ihnen dauerhaft in der Selbstständigkeit verbleibt. Zugleich zeigt sich in jüngerer Vergangenheit eine zunehmende Diskontinuität der Erwerbsverläufe: Die Wechsel zwischen unterschiedlichen Erwerbsformen nehmen zu. Die Selbstständigkeit wird zudem immer häufiger frühzeitig wieder aufgegeben. Auch das Gründungsgeschehen wird zunehmend vielfältiger. So gewinnen in jüngerer Vergangenheit hybride Formen der Selbstständigkeit an Bedeutung, bei denen die Selbstständigkeit parallel zu einem anderen Erwerbsstatus aufgenommen wird. Die hybride Gründung gleicht jedoch nur bedingt einem Sprungbrett in eine ausschließliche Selbstständigkeit." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"Die vorliegende Studie zeigt, dass Frauen über die Erwerbsspanne hinweg in der Tat um ein Vielfaches höhere Einkommenseinbußen hinnehmen müssen als es die Momentaufnahme des 'Gender Pay Gap' nahelegt. Familienbedingte Auszeiten sind langfristig keinesfalls lohnneutral, wie bspw. die Studie von Görlich & de Grip (2007) - allerdings mit weitaus jüngeren Daten - ergab, im Gegenteil: Frauen erleiden, zumindest bis zum Simulationshorizont im Alter 45, beträchtliche Einkommensverluste gegenüber durchgängig vollzeitbeschäftigten Frauen gleicher Bildung. Insofern unterstützen die Ergebnisse dieser Studie die Ergebnisse von Beblo & Wolf (2003) sowie Kunze (2002) und Boll (2011). Die Unterbrechungseffekte sind im Umfang weitaus höher als die Geschlechtereffekte. Dennoch bestehen auch zwischen durchgängig vollzeitbeschäftigten Frauen und Männern nennenswerte Einkommensunterschiede. Schließlich bestimmt auch die Berufswahl die Einkommensentwicklung der Männer und Frauen. Ein genderuntypisches Berufswahlverhalten junger Frauen führt jedoch nicht generell zu höheren Fraueneinkommen. Im Gegenteil: Insbesondere in sozialpflegerischen Berufen können Frauen, die auf Unterbrechungen ihrer Vollzeitbeschäftigung weitgehend verzichten, höhere Einkommen als Männer und zudem höhere Einkommen als Frauen in männerdominierten gewerblichen Berufen erzielen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Bönke, Timm, Matthias Giesecke & Holger Lüthen (2015): The dynamics of earnings in Germany. Evidence from social security records. (DIW-Diskussionspapiere 1514), Berlin, 41 S.

Abstract

"Dieses Papier untersucht Erwerbseinkommensdynamiken und ihre langfristigen Trends in Deutschland. Wir zerlegen die gesamte Varianz der Einkommen in kurzfristige Unsicherheit (transitorische Varianz) und langfristige Einkommensungleichheit (permanente Varianz). Die verwendeten Daten erfassen die vollständigen Erwerbsbiographien westdeutscher Männer aus 40 Geburtskohorten (1935 - 1974). Die Analyse basiert auf sozialversicherungspflichtigen Einkommen, die im primären Erwerbsalter zwischen dem 25. und 59. Lebensjahr erzielt wurden. Im Beobachtungszeitraum von 1960 bis 2009 durchläuft der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt einen ausgeprägten Transformationsprozess. Charakterisierende Entwicklungen sind eine starke Deregulierung, ein abnehmender gewerkschaftlicher Organisationsgrad und eine Verlagerung der Beschäftigung aus dem industriellen Sektor in den Dienstleistungssektor. Unsere Ergebnisse reflektieren die spezifischen Entwicklungsphasen am deutschen Arbeitsmarkt und zeigen insgesamt einen deutlichen Anstieg der Einkommensvolatilität sowohl in der permanenten als auch der transitorischen Komponente. Der Anstieg in der transitorischen Komponente ist für junge Arbeitnehmer in den frühen 1970er Jahren und den 1990er Jahren besonders ausgeprägt, während die permanente Komponente insbesondere bei älteren Arbeitnehmern in den frühen 1980er Jahren und den 2000er Jahren ansteigt. Diese Ergebnisse deuten nicht nur auf einen deutlich erschwerten Arbeitsmarkteinstieg hin, sondern zeigen auch einen starken Anstieg der Lohnspreizung unter etablierten Arbeitnehmern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bönke, Timm, Giacomo Corneo & Holger Lüthen (2015): Lifetime earnings inequality in Germany. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 33, H. 1, S. 171-208. DOI:10.1086/677559

Abstract

"We employ German social security records to investigate intragenerational lifetime earnings inequality and mobility of yearly earnings for 35 cohorts, starting with the birth year 1935. Our main result is a striking secular rise of intragenerational inequality in lifetime earnings: West German men born in the early 1960s are likely to experience about 85% more lifetime inequality than their fathers. In contrast, both short-term and long-term intragenerational mobility are stable. Longer unemployment spells of workers at the bottom of the distribution of younger cohorts contribute to explaining 20% - 40% of the overall increase in lifetime earnings inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dietz, Martin & Christopher Osiander (2015): Qualifizierung und Weiterbildung von Arbeitslosen. Rechtlicher Rahmen, Schwierigkeiten und Lösungsansätze. In: C. Kreklau (Hrsg.) (2015): Handbuch der Aus- und Weiterbildung : Grundlagen der Bildungsarbeit - Ausbildungsfoerderung, S. 1-12, 2015-03-02.

Abstract

"Der Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit IAB-Forschungsergebnissen zum Themenkomplex Weiterbildung. Es werden drei zentrale Themen erläutert: Die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen der Qualifizierung von Arbeitslosen in Deutschland, Ergebnisse einer Studie zu Schwierigkeiten und Herausforderungen im Rahmen möglicher Weiterbildungsteilnahmen und Lösungsansätze. Zudem wird auf die finanziellen Erträge eingegangen, die sich durch Bildung und Ausbildung im Lebensverlauf im Durchschnitt ergeben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Hanushek, Eric A., Guido Schwerdt, Simon Wiederhold & Ludger Wößmann (2015): Returns to skills around the world. Evidence from PIAAC. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 73, H. January, S. 103-130. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.10.006

Abstract

"Existing estimates of the labor-market returns to human capital give a distorted picture of the role of skills across different economies. International comparisons of earnings analyses rely almost exclusively on school attainment measures of human capital, and evidence incorporating direct measures of cognitive skills is mostly restricted to early-career workers in the United States. Analysis of the new PIAAC survey of adult skills over the full lifecycle in 23 countries shows that the focus on early-career earnings leads to underestimating the lifetime returns to skills by about one quarter. On average, a one-standard-deviation increase in numeracy skills is associated with an 18 percent wage increase among prime-age workers. But this masks considerable heterogeneity across countries. Eight countries, including all Nordic countries, have returns between 12 and 15 percent, while six are above 21 percent with the largest return being 28 percent in the United States. Estimates are remarkably robust to different earnings and skill measures, additional controls, and various subgroups. Instrumental-variable models that use skill variation stemming from school attainment, parental education, or compulsory-schooling laws provide even higher estimates. Intriguingly, returns to skills are systematically lower in countries with higher union density, stricter employment protection, and larger public-sector shares." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lindahl, Mikael, Mårten Palme, Sofia Sandgren Massih & Anna Sjögren (2015): Long-term intergenerational persistence of human capital. An empirical analysis of four generations. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 50, H. 1, S. 1-33.

Abstract

"Most previous studies of intergenerational transmission of human capital are restricted to two generations: how parents influence their children. In this study, we use a Swedish data set that links individual measures of lifetime earnings for three generations and data on educational attainment for four generations. We find that estimates obtained from data on two generations severely underestimate long-run intergenerational persistence in both labor earnings and educational attainments. Long-run social mobility is hence much lower than previously thought. We attribute this additional persistence to 'dynastic human capital' - the influence on human capital of more distant family members than parents." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Nybom, Martin & Jan Stuhler (2015): Biases in standard measures of intergenerational income dependence. (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy 2015,13), Uppsala, 25 S.

Abstract

"Estimates of the most common mobility measure, the intergenerational elasticity, can be severely biased if snapshots are used to approximate lifetime income. However, little is known about biases in other popular dependence measures. We use long Swedish income series to provide such evidence for linear and rank correlations, and rank-based transition probabilities. Attenuation bias is considerably weaker in rank-based measures. Life-cycle bias is strongest in the elasticity; moderate in the linear correlation; and small in rank-based measures. However, with important exceptions: persistence in the tails of the distribution is considerably higher, and long-distance downward mobility considerably lower, than estimates from short-run income suggest." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Blundell, Richard (2014): Income dynamics and life-cycle inequality. Mechanisms and controversies. In: The economic journal, Jg. 124, H. 576, S. 289-318. DOI:10.1111/ecoj.12133

Abstract

"This study focuses on the transmission of inequality over the working life. A model of constrained intertemporal choice is used to provide structure to the distributional dynamics of wages, earnings, income and consumption. The mechanisms used to insure labour market shocks are examined in a partial-insurance setting where the manner and scope for insurance depends on the access to credit, the information available to consumers and the durability of income shocks. Drawing on recent research, family labour supply, the credit market and the tax system are all shown to play a key role. These mechanisms vary in importance across different points of the life cycle and the business cycle." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Blundell, Richard, Michael Graber & Magne Mogstad (2014): Labor income dynamics and the insurance from taxes, transfers, and the family. (IZA discussion paper 7916), Bonn, 43 S.

Abstract

"What do labor income dynamics look like over the life-cycle? What is the relative importance of persistent shocks, transitory shocks and heterogeneous profiles? To what extent do taxes, transfers and the family attenuate these various factors in the evolution of life-cycle inequality? In this paper, we use rich Norwegian data to answer these important questions. We let individuals with different education levels have a separate income process; and within each skill group, we allow for non-stationarity in age and time, heterogeneous experience profiles, and shocks of varying persistence. We find that the income processes differ systematically by age, skill level and their interaction. To accurately describe labor income dynamics over the life-cycle, it is necessary to allow for heterogeneity by education levels and account for non-stationarity in age and time. Our findings suggest that the progressive nature of the Norwegian tax-transfer system plays a key role in attenuating the magnitude and persistence of income shocks, especially among the low skilled. By comparison, spouse's income matters less for the dynamics of inequality over the life-cycle." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bönke, Timm & Holger Lüthen (2014): Lebenseinkommen von Arbeitnehmern in Deutschland. Ungleichheit verdoppelt sich zwischen den Geburtsjahrgängen 1935 und 1972. In: DIW-Wochenbericht, Jg. 81, H. 49, S. 1271-1277.

Abstract

"Einkommensungleichheit wird zumeist im Hinblick auf ihre aktuelle Entwicklung betrachtet. Eine längerfristige Perspektive bietet die Möglichkeit, die Einkommenssituation der heutigen Generation mit der ihrer Elterngeneration zu vergleichen. Mithilfe eines neuartigen Datensatzes wird hier erstmals die Ungleichheit von Löhnen und Gehältern, die über das gesamte Erwerbsleben erzielt wurden, gemessen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich die Ungleichheit der Lebenseinkommen westdeutscher männlicher sozialversicherungspflichtiger Arbeitnehmer vom Jahrgang 1935 bis zum Jahrgang 1972 verdoppelt hat. Bis zu 40 Prozent dieses Anstiegs können auf die erhöhte Arbeitslosigkeit von Personen im unteren Bereich der Lohnverteilung zurückgeführt werden, der Rest wird durch eine verstärkte Spreizung der Löhne verursacht. Die gestiegene Ungleichheit in den Lebenseinkommen kann weitreichende Folgen haben. So ist zu erwarten, dass die Möglichkeiten, ein nennenswertes Vermögen aus eigener Anstrengung anzusparen, für die Bezieher unterer und mittlerer Lebenseinkommen für die hier betrachteten Geburtsjahrgänge zunehmend eingeschränkt werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Dickson, Matt, Fabien Postel-Vinay & Hélène Turon (2014): The lifetime earnings premium in the public sector. The view from Europe. In: Labour economics, Jg. 31, H. December, S. 141-161. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2014.07.015

Abstract

"In a context of widespread concern about budget deficits, it is important to assess whether public sector pay is in line with the private sector. Our paper proposes an estimation of differences in lifetime values of employment between public and private sectors for five European countries. We use data from the European Community Household Panel over the period 1994-2001 for Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Spain. We look at lifetime values instead of wage levels because, as we show in our results, differences in earnings mobility, earnings volatility and job loss risk across sectors occur in many instances and these will matter to forward-looking individuals. When aggregated into a measure of lifetime value of employment in either sector, these differences yield estimates of the lifetime premium in the public sector for these five countries. We also present differences in the institutional and labour market structures in these countries and find that countries for which we estimate a positive lifetime premium in the public sector, i.e. France and Spain, are also the countries where access to the public sector requires costly entry procedures. This paper is to the best of our knowledge the first to use this dynamic approach applied to Europe, which we are able to do with a common dataset, time-period and model." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Dickson, Matt, Fabien Postel-Vinay & Hélène Turon (2014): The lifetime earnings premium in the public sector. The view from Europe. (IZA discussion paper 8159), Bonn, 91 S.

Abstract

"In a context of widespread concern about budget deficits, it is important to assess whether public sector pay is in line with the private sector. Our paper proposes an estimation of differences in lifetime values of employment between public and private sectors for five European countries. We use data from the European Community Household Panel over the period 1994-2001 for Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Spain. We look at lifetime values instead of wage levels because, as we show in our results, differences in earnings mobility, earnings volatility and job loss risk across sectors occur in many instances and these will matter to forward-looking individuals. When aggregated into a measure of lifetime value of employment in either sector, these differences yield estimates of the lifetime premium in the public sector for these five countries. We also present differences in the institutional and labour market structures in these countries and find that countries for which we estimate a positive lifetime premium in the public sector, i.e. France and Spain, are also the countries where access to the public sector requires costly entry procedures. This paper is to the best of our knowledge the first to use this dynamic approach applied to Europe, which we are able to do with a common dataset, time-period and model." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Guvenen, Fatih, Greg Kaplan & Jae Song (2014): The glass ceiling and the paper floor. Gender differences among top earners, 1981-2012. (NBER working paper 20560), Cambridge, Mass., 41 S. DOI:10.3386/w20560

Abstract

"We analyze changes in the gender structure at the top of the earnings distribution in the United States over the last 30 years using a 10% sample of individual earnings histories from the Social Security Administration. Despite making large inroads, females still constitute a small proportion of the top percentiles: the glass ceiling, albeit a thinner one, remains. We measure the contribution of changes in labor force participation, changes in the persistence of top earnings, and changes in industry and age composition to the change in the gender composition of top earners. A large proportion of the increased share of females among top earners is accounted for by the mending of, what we refer to as, the paper floor - the phenomenon whereby female top earners were much more likely than male top earners to drop out of the top percentiles. We also provide new evidence at the top of the earnings distribution for both genders: the rising share of top earnings accruing to workers in the Finance and Insurance industry, the relative transitory status of top earners, the emergence of top earnings gender gaps over the life cycle, and gender differences among lifetime top earners." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Hidalgo-Hidalgo, Marisa (2014): Tracking can be more equitable than mixing. In: The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Jg. 116, H. 4, S. 964-981. DOI:10.1111/sjoe.12074

Abstract

"Parents and policy-makers often wonder whether and how the choice of a tracked or mixed educational system affects the equality of opportunity. I answer this question by analyzing the influence of peers on future educational results. I define an equal opportunity policy as one that maximizes the average lifetime income of the worst-off type of individuals in society (i.e., students from disadvantaged backgrounds). I find that tracking maximizes average lifetime income if the opportunity cost of college attendance is sufficiently high." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))