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Vanhercke, Bart, Slavina Spasova & Boris Fronteddu (Hrsg.) (2021): Social policy in the European Union: state of play 2020. Facing the pandemic. (Social policy in the European Union : state of play ... 21), Brüssel, 220 S.

Abstract

"Sweeping across Asia like the hordes of Genghis Khan, the Covid-19 virus struck Europe in the early weeks of 2020. With the pandemic tightening its grip on populations across the continent, wide-ranging restrictions were implemented by Member State governments, albeit initially with little coordination from Brussels. With this as background for this year’s Bilan social, the first chapters analyse the impact of the pandemic on various aspects of intense EU social policymaking throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020. These include the EU’s quite effective coordination of public health measures and its unprecedented economic and social support measures. On the downside, gender equality has taken a hit, further raising the necessity for ambitious EU initiatives in this area. Moving away from the direct effects of the pandemic, the book goes on to look at how the Green Deal is being implemented and whether it has sufficient clout to meet the EU’s CO2 targets without overly impacting employment. Perhaps a completely new approach is needed. In the same vein, the book analyses recent developments in the European Semester, looking at how the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and the European Pillar of Social Rights are moving up the Semester agenda, albeit not without difficulty. The final chapter looks at the difficulties involved in introducing a common framework for fair minimum wages through binding EU legislation. With less wiggle room available to social affairs players under the new EU Recovery and Resilience Facility and the European Semester at least temporarily put on the back burner, the conclusions discuss whether the ongoing ‘crisisification’ of European policymaking may, ultimately, pave the way for further European integration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Weber, Enzo & Roman Neupert (2021): European labour market dynamics after the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis (Series "COVID-19 Crisis: Consequences for the Labour Market"). In: IAB-Forum H. 16.04.2021, o. Sz., 2021-04-15.

Abstract

"In the Covid-19 crisis, governments around the world are struggling to secure jobs and businesses. Short-time work and comprehensive liquidity support benefit companies, which have so far relied more on these measures than on layoffs. However, the uncertain economic outlook deters many firms from hiring new staff. Also, the number of potential workers is declining throughout Europe, as many are withdrawing from the labour market. In order to analyse the mechanisms behind these dropping employment figures, this article gives an outline of developments in labour market flow statistics in Europe after the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Winters, John V. (2021): Young and Hungry? Employment Levels for Young People During Spring 2021. (IZA discussion paper 14508), Bonn, 8 S.

Abstract

"This article examines employment rates for persons in their teens and early 20s during April and May 2021 compared to April and May 2019. Employment rates for teens are significantly higher in Spring 2021 than in Spring 2019. However, individuals ages 20-24 experienced significantly lower employment rates in Spring 2021 than in Spring 2019. Differing employment patterns for these two age groups are unlikely to reflect childcare issues or lingering COVID-19 concerns. Restaurant employment rates suggest that weak labor demand is likely not the predominant factor. One plausible explanation is that teenagers are less influenced by generous unemployment insurance benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Wolter, Stefan C. (2021): Eine Ausbildungskrise, die (noch) keine war - Schweizer Erfahrungen in der COVID-19-Krise. In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis, Jg. 50, H. 2, S. 15-19.

Abstract

"Entgegen den Erwartungen, die man basierend auf den Erfahrungen aus früheren Rezessionen bilden musste, hat der Lehrstellenmarkt in der Schweiz die durch die COVID-19-Pandemie ausgelöste Rezession bislang unbeschadet überstanden. Die Vielfalt der Maßnahmen, die dafür direkt oder indirekt verantwortlich sein könnten, verunmöglicht allerdings ein Urteil darüber, welche Maßnahme nützte und welche nicht. Die überraschend gut überstandene Krise ist aber keine Garantie, dass ein weiterer Stresstest 2021 ebenfalls glimpflich abläuft, wenn man die hohe Verunsicherung der Betriebe im Herbst 2020 als Maßstab für die weitere Entwicklung des Lehrstellenmarkts nimmt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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(2021): World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2021. (World employment and social outlook. Trends), Genf, 161 S.

Abstract

"In addition to being a health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic is also an employment crisis. Lockdowns and other measures adopted to curb the spread of the coronavirus have disrupted labour markets worldwide, leaving few workers unaffected. This report details the effects of the crisis on the world of work, examining global and regional trends in employment, unemployment, labour force participation and productivity, alongside such dimensions of job quality as employment status, informal employment and working poverty. It also offers an extensive analysis of the differential impact of the crisis on enterprises and workers. The report provides forecasts of the post-pandemic employment recovery, which though predicted to be strong, will nonetheless be insufficient to close the gaps opened up by the crisis. Workers whose labour market situation was most disadvantageous before the crisis – women, young people, migrants, informal workers and those in lower-skilled occupations – have suffered disproportionately from the fallout of the crisis. In view of these pressing challenges, the report proposes a human-centred recovery strategy to prevent the “scarring” of global labour markets for years to come." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The latest analysis of the labour market impact of COVID-19 by the ILO, records massive damage to working time and income, with prospects for a recovery in 2021 slow, uneven and uncertain unless early improvements are supported by human-centred recovery policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2021): Taxing Wages 2021. Special Feature: Impact of Covid-19 on the Tax Wedge In OECD Countries. (Taxing wages / OECD 2021), Paris, 648 S. DOI:10.1787/83a87978-en

Abstract

"This annual publication provides details of taxes paid on wages in OECD countries. It covers personal income taxes and social security contributions paid by employees, social security contributions and payroll taxes paid by employers, and cash benefits received by workers. It illustrates how these taxes and benefits are calculated in each member country and examines how they impact household incomes. The results also enable quantitative cross-country comparisons of labour cost levels and the overall tax and benefit position of single persons and families on different levels of earnings. The publication shows average and marginal effective tax rates on labour costs for eight different household types, which vary by income level and household composition (single persons, single parents, one or two earner couples with or without children). The average tax rates measure the part of gross wage earnings or labour costs taken in tax and social security contributions, both before and after cash benefits, and the marginal tax rates the part of a small increase of gross earnings or labour costs that is paid in these levies. Taxing Wages 2021 includes a special feature entitled: “Impact of COVID-19 on the Tax Wedge in OECD Countries”." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The European Grouping of Societies of Authors and Composers (GESAC) commissioned EY teams to produce a report on the state of the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) in Europe. What was their economic situation before the COVID-19 crisis? What impact has the crisis had on activity and employment? And what are the main priorities for the sector to protect itself from the most serious consequences, to recover growth and enhance its value in the European economy? This study follows a report of the same type, entitled Creating Growth, published in December 2014.GESAC has brought together numerous partners representing the CCIs, in order to reflect the diversity and collective strength of this economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2021): OECD Economic Outlook, May 2021. Volume 2021 Issue 1 : Preliminary version. (OECD economic outlook 109), Paris, 218 S. DOI:10.1787/edfbca02-en

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a long shadow over the world’s economies. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 1, highlights the improved prospects for the global economy due to vaccinations and stronger policy support, but also points to uneven progress across countries and key risks and challenges in maintaining and strengthening the recovery. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2021): Quarterly Review of Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) - March 2021. (Employment and social developments in Europe : Quarterly review), Luxembourg, 27 S.

Abstract

"Selbstständige sind durch eine starke Verkürzung ihrer Arbeitszeit und schwerwiegendere Einkommensverluste EU-weit besonders stark von den Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie betroffen. Das zeigt ein Quartalsbericht zu Beschäftigung und sozialen Entwicklungen in Europa (ESDE) mit einem thematischen Schwerpunkt auf die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie auf Selbstständige. Die nationalen Sozialschutzsysteme bieten in der Regel eine geringere Absicherung und Entschädigung für Selbstständige. Insgesamt zeigt der Bericht, dass sich die Maßnahmen zum Schutz von Arbeitsplätzen als wirksam erwiesen und die Widerstandsfähigkeit des Arbeitsmarktes verbessert haben. In den letzten Monaten des Jahres 2020 stieg die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen moderat an und die Arbeitslosigkeit blieb stabil." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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(2021): OECD Employment Outlook 2021. Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis and Recovery. (OECD employment outlook), Paris, 400 S. DOI:10.1787/5a700c4b-en

Abstract

"The 2021 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook focusses on the labour market implications of the COVID‑19 crisis. Chapters 1-3 concentrate on the main labour market and social challenges brought about by the crisis and the policies to address them. Chapters 4-5 cover long-standing structural issues but also discuss their relevance and implications for the COVID-19 crisis. More specifically, Chapter 1 monitors the impact of the crisis on the labour market, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups in the medium and long term. Chapter 2 provides a preliminary assessment of the role of job retention schemes in preserving jobs during the COVID-19 crisis. Chapter 3 analyses how active labour market policies and public employment services have responded to the challenges posed by the crisis. Chapter 4 assesses the extent and consequences of domestic outsourcing for the labour market in general, and for low-wage occupations in particular. Chapter 5 provides a detailed review of statutory and negotiated regulations governing working time – including teleworking – as well as an overview of trends in working time patterns and time use across OECD countries and socio-demographic groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Aaronson, Daniel, Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Daniel W. Sacks & Boyoung Seo (2020): Using the eye of the storm to predict the wave of Covid-19 UI claims. In: Covid economics H. 9, S. 59-76.

Abstract

"We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic "unemployment," we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates and demonstrate their use within a broader forecasting framework for US economic activity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Adams-Prassl, Abi, Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin & Christopher Rauh (2020): Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock. Evidence from Real Time Surveys. (IZA discussion paper 13183), Bonn, 49 S.

Abstract

"We present real time survey evidence from the UK, US and Germany showing that the labor market impacts of COVID-19 differ considerably across countries. Employees in Germany, which has a well-established short-time work scheme, are substantially less likely to be affected by the crisis. Within countries, the impacts are highly unequal and exacerbate existing inequalities. Workers in alternative work arrangements and in occupations in which only a small share of tasks can be done from home are more likely to have reduced their hours, lost their jobs and suffered falls in earnings. Less educated workers and women are more affected by the crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ahrendt, Daphne & Massimiliano Mascherini (2020): Living, working and COVID-19. (Eurofound. First findings), Dublin, 10 S.

Abstract

"In the space of just a few weeks, the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus has radically transformed the lives of people around the globe. Apart from the devastating health consequences on people directly affected by the virus, the COVID-19 pandemic has had major implications for the way people live and work, affecting their physical and mental well-being in a profound way. To capture the immediate economic and social effects of this crisis, Eurofound launched a large-scale online survey across the European Union and beyond on 9 April. Entitled Living, working and COVID-19, the aim of the survey is to investigate the impact on well-being, work and telework and on the financial situation of people living in Europe. It includes a range of questions relevant to people across various age groups and life situations. Most of the questions are based on Eurofound’s European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS) and European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS), while other questions are new or were adapted from other sources, such as the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Andrew, Alison, Sarah Cattan, Monica Costa Dias, Christine Farquharson, Lucy Kraftman, Sonya Krutikova, Angus Phimister & Almudena Sevilla (2020): How are mothers and fathers balancing work and family under lockdown? (IFS briefing notes 290), London, 30 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 crisis has caused drastic changes to most parents’ work lives and other responsibilities. Millions of adults have lost or are forecast to lose their jobs permanently; many more have stopped work temporarily. Others are newly working from home, while many key workers are experiencing additional pressures and risks in their work. For most parents, school and childcare closures have meant that children are at home, and requiring care, for at least an extra six hours a day. In this report, we examine new data collected since the end of April to investigate how this crisis has affected mothers and fathers in two-parent opposite-gender families. Our survey allows up-to-date insights into the labour market shocks that parents have faced and how parents are balancing their responsibilities under lockdown. In this piece, we focus on how parents divide their time between childcare, housework and paid work, how these arrangements are changing with the lockdown, and the extent to which they vary between men and women." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Angelini, Elena, Matthieu Darracq-Pariès, Srečko Zimic & Milan Damjanović (2020): ECB-BASIR: a primer on the macroeconomic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 2431), Frankfurt am Main, 38 S. DOI:10.2866/14144

Abstract

"This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and makes a first step in adapting the central bank modelling apparatus to the new economic landscape. We augment the ECB-BASE model with the predictive dynamics of the SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy. Containment policies considerably reduce the share of infected and deceased people, but generate a sharp decline in economic activity. Barring the materialization of amplification risks, the induced recession may remain broadly V-shaped under targeted confinement policies. By comparison, a "Laissez-faire" approach to the pandemic emergency can even inflict in some cases higher long-term economic costs. Nevertheless, the depth of the recession and the speed of the recovery (if at all) crucially depend on the magnitude and persistence of the supply-side retrenchment, as well as on the risk of macro-financial feedback loops." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Azmat, Ghazala, Lena Hensvik & Olof Rosenqvist (2020): Presenteeism at work and gender inequality. In: VOX H. 04.10.2020, o. Sz.

Abstract

"The recent COVID-19 public health crisis has – at least temporarily – changed the organisation of work and the requirement for presenteeism in the workplace. Using data from Sweden, this column argues that such change could help close the gender earnings gap by lowering the wage penalties to unpredictable work absence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baert, Stijn, Louis Lippens, Eline Moens, Philippe Sterkens & Johannes Weytjens (2020): How Do We Think the COVID-19 Crisis Will Affect Our Careers (If Any Remain)? (IZA discussion paper 13164), Bonn, 29 S.

Abstract

"This study is the first in the world to investigate the expected impact of the COVID-19 crisis on career outcomes and career aspirations. To this end, high-quality survey research with a relevant panel of Belgian employees was conducted. About 21% of them fear losing their jobs due to the crisis—14% are concerned that they will even lose their jobs in the near future. In addition, 26% expect to miss out on promotions that they would have received had the COVID-19 crisis not occurred. This fear of a negative impact is higher in vulnerable groups, such migrants. In addition, we observe that many panel members believe they will look at the labour market differently and will have different work-related priorities in the future. In this respect, more than half of the panel members indicate that they have attached more importance to working conditions and work-life balance since the COVID- 19 crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bairoliya, Neha & Ayse Imrohoroglu (2020): Macroeconomic consequences of stay-at-home policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. In: Covid economics H. 13, S. 71-90.

Abstract

"Older adults and those with underlying medical conditions seem especially vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. government’s efforts to contain the infection, on the other hand, have a disproportionate impact on the working age population. To be able to capture the impact of the pandemic and the resulting mitigation efforts on a population that is heterogeneous by age, income and health status, we use an overlapping generations model that mimics the U.S. economy along those dimensions in 2020. We introduce an unexpected COVID-19 shock in the economy and examine the resulting impact on aggregate output, labor supply, savings, and consumption behavior of the different agents. We find that mitigation efforts that target certain age and health groups result in significantly smaller disruptions in the economy. Going forward, introducing subsidies to those with underlying health conditions and/or the elderly to self isolate might prove to be a useful path in opening up the economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baker, Marissa G., Trevor K. Peckham & Noah S. Seixas (2020): Estimating the burden of United States workers exposed to infection or disease. A key factor in containing risk of COVID-19 infection. In: PLoS ONE, Jg. 15, H. 4. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0232452

Abstract

"Introduction: With the global spread of COVID-19, there is a compelling public health interest in quantifying who is at increased risk of contracting disease. Occupational characteristics, such as interfacing with the public and being in close quarters with other workers, not only put workers at high risk for disease, but also make them a nexus of disease transmission to the community. This can further be exacerbated through presenteeism, the term used to describe the act of coming to work despite being symptomatic for disease. Quantifying the number of workers who are frequently exposed to infection and disease in the workplace, and understanding which occupational groups they represent, can help to prompt public health risk response and management for COVID-19 in the workplace, and subsequent infectious disease outbreaks. Methods: To estimate the number of United States workers frequently exposed to infection and disease in the workplace, national employment data (by Standard Occupational Classification) maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was merged with a BLS O*NET survey measure reporting how frequently workers in each occupation are exposed to infection or disease at work. This allowed us to estimate the number of United States workers, across all occupations, exposed to disease or infection at work more than once a month. Results: Based on our analyses, approximately 10% (14.4 M) of United States workers are employed in occupations where exposure to disease or infection occurs at least once per week. Approximately 18.4% (26.7 M) of all United States workers are employed in occupations where exposure to disease or infection occurs at least once per month. While the majority of exposed workers are employed in healthcare sectors, other occupational sectors also have high proportions of exposed workers. These include protective service occupations (e.g. police officers, correctional officers, firefighters), office and administrative support occupations (e.g. couriers and messengers, patient service representatives), education occupations (e.g. preschool and daycare teachers), community and social services occupations (community health workers, social workers, counselors), and even construction and extraction occupations (e.g. plumbers, septic tank installers, elevator repair). Conclusions: The large number of persons employed in occupations with frequent exposure to infection and disease underscore the importance of all workplaces developing risk response plans for COVID-19. Given the proportion of the United States workforce exposed to disease or infection at work, this analysis also serves as an important reminder that the workplace is a key locus for public health interventions, which could protect both workers and the communities they serve." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baldwin, Richard & Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Hrsg.) (2020): Economics in the time of COVID-19. London: CEPR Press, 115 S.

Abstract

"COVID-19 may be as contagious economically as it is medically. This eBook addresses some key questions: How, and how far and fast, will the economic damage spread? How bad will it get? How long will the damage last? What are the mechanisms of economic contagion? And, above all, what can governments do about it?" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baldwin, Richard & Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Hrsg.) (2020): Mitigating the COVID economic crisis. Act fast and do whatever it takes. London: CEPR Press, 219 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 crisis has become more predictable in a sense. What was widely viewed as a 'Chinese problem,' and then an 'Italian problem' has become an 'everybody problem'. With few exceptions, governments initially downplay the disease until sustained community transmission takes hold. Then they impose severe social distancing policies, work and school closures and the like. This inevitably leads to almost immediate economic hardship, which then leads governments to propose increasingly bold anti-recession measures. This was the pattern in Europe and looks set to be the pattern in the US and many other nations. All this is due to the highly contagious nature of the virus, and the inexorable implications of its explosive spread during the 'acceleration phase' of the epidemic. This eBook is an attempt to collect the thinking of leading economists on what is to be done. In addition to contributing to analysis of the rapidly evolving policy reactions, we hope this eBook will help nations get ahead of the curve - to think ahead on the medical and economic policies that will be needed. The collected wisdom of our authors also points to another critical aspect of this crisis. Without care, solutions to one set of economic problems could - for some nations - turn this economic crisis into a financial crisis, or a debt crisis, or a foreign exchange crisis, etc. Care must be taken to ensure that temporary solutions don't create long-lasting problems. The size of the economic damage is still very uncertain, but it is certain that it will large. Governments now need to focus on mitigating that damage. This is the time to bring out the big artillery; this is not a time to be timid, but to do whatever it takes, fast." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Balleer, Almut, Britta Gehrke, Brigitte Hochmuth & Christian Merkl (2020): Guidelines for cost-effective use of SURE: Rule-based short-time work with workers’ consent and aligned replacement rates. In: VOX H. 01.05.2020, o. Sz., 2020-04-27.

Abstract

"In response to the COVID-19 crisis, the EU has implemented the SURE programme which provides loans up to €100 billion to member states for the support of short-time work systems. In order to obtain the maximum unemployment stabilisation with these funds, this column argues that the SURE loans should be used to support rule-based short-time work systems that require workers’ consent and that are aligned with national short-term unemployment benefit systems. During the COVID-19 crisis, additions to these rules may be appropriate." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bardt, Hubertus, Sandra Parthie, Ciro Rapacciuolo, Livio Romano, Christian Helmenstein, Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö & Emmanuel Jessua (2020): European rescue and recovery programmes against the Corona Crisis. (IW policy paper 2020,08), Köln, 7 S.

Abstract

"The current crisis is different from the situation 2008/2009, but again it is a tremendous challenge for the economies across Europe. The Corona-crisis is hitting the economies symmetrically, though with differences in magnitude levels, while the 2009 crisis was primarily a crisis of the banking industry and the manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Barro, Robert J., José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng (2020): The coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic. Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the coronavirus's potential effects on mortality and economic activity. (CESifo working paper 8166), München, 24 S.

Abstract

"Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bartik, Alexander W., Marianne Bertrand, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton (2020): How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey. (NBER working paper 26989), Cambridge, Mass., 35 S. DOI:10.3386/w26989

Abstract

"In addition to its impact on public health, COVID-19 has had a major impact on the economy. To shed light on how COVID-19 is affecting small businesses – and on the likely impact of the recent stimulus bill, we conducted a survey of more than 5,800 small businesses. Several main themes emerge from the results. First, mass layoffs and closures have already occurred. In our sample, 43 percent of businesses are temporarily closed, and businesses have – on average – reduced their employee counts by 40 percent relative to January. Second, consistent with previous literature, we find that many small businesses are financially fragile. For example, the median business has more than $10,000 in monthly expenses and less than one month of cash on hand. Third, businesses have widely varying beliefs about the likely duration of COVID related disruptions. Fourth, the majority of businesses planned to seek funding through the CARES act. However, many anticipated problems with accessing the aid, such as bureaucratic hassles and difficulties establishing eligibility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bartik, Alexander W., Marianne Bertrand, Feng Lin, Jesse Rothstein & Matt Unrath (2020): Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. (NBER working papers 27613), Cambridge, MA, 53 S. DOI:10.3386/w27613

Abstract

"We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from March to early July, contrast this downturn to previous recessions, and provide preliminary evidence on the effects of the policy response. For hourly workers at both small and large businesses, nearly all of the decline in employment occurred between March 14 and 28. It was driven by low-wage services, particularly the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. A large share of the job losses in small businesses reflected firms that closed entirely, though many subsequently reopened. Firms that were already unhealthy were more likely to close and less likely to reopen, and disadvantaged workers were more likely to be laid off and less likely to return. Most laid off workers expected to be recalled, and this was predictive of rehiring. Shelter-in-place orders drove only a small share of job losses. Last, states that received more small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program and states with more generous unemployment insurance benefits had milder declines and faster recoveries. We find no evidence that high UI replacement rates drove job losses or slowed rehiring." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Beck, Thorsten & Wolf Wagner (2020): National containment policies and international cooperation. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 120-134.

Abstract

"Policies that curtail social and economic activities during a pandemic are predominantly decided upon at the national level, but have international ramifications. In this paper we examine what type of inefficiencies this may create and how cooperation across countries may improve outcomes. We find that inefficiencies arise even among completely identical countries. We show that countries are likely to choose excessively lenient policies from the perspective of world welfare in later stages of the pandemic. This provides a rationale for setting minimum containment standards internationally. By contrast, in early and intermediate stages of the pandemic, national containment policies may also be excessively strict. Whether or not this is the case depends on a country's degree of economic integration relative to (outward and inward) mobility of people. Analyzing the stringency of containment policies during the current epidemic confirms that countries with higher economic integration adopt stringent containment policies more quickly whereas countries subject to high mobility do so later." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Beer, Sonja (2020): Die Corona-Krise in den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern: Eine Katastrophe naht. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,57), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"Seit Wochen breitet sich das Coronavirus im Westen stark aus. China ist die Eindämmung des Virus zum Teil gelungen. Obwohl die wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen in den meisten Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern bereits jetzt schon deutlich spürbar sind, steht im Hinblick auf die Verbreitung des Virus noch das Schlimmste bevor." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Beland, Louis-Philippe, Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright (2020): The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19. Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response. (IZA discussion paper 13159), Bonn, 91 S.

Abstract

"In this ongoing project, we examine the short-term consequences of COVID-19 on employment and wages in the United States. Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we document the impact of COVID-19 at the national-level using a simple difference and test whether states with relatively more confirmed cases/deaths were more affected. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 increased the unemployment rate, decreased hours of work and labor force participation and had no significant impacts on wages. The negative impacts on labor market outcomes are larger for men, younger workers, Hispanics and less educated workers. This suggest that COVID-19 increases labor market inequalities. We also investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We built three indexes using ACS and O*NET data: workers relatively more exposed to disease, workers that work with proximity to coworkers and workers who can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that individuals in occupations working in proximity to others are more affected while occupations able to work remotely are less affected. We also find that occupations classified as more exposed to disease are less affected, possibly due to the large number of essential workers in these occupations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bilek-Steindl, Sandra (2020): Internationaler Konjunktureinbruch als Folge der COVID-19-Pandemie. In: Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Jg. 93, H. 5, S. 327-334.

Abstract

"Die Weltwirtschaft wurde von den Auswirkungen der zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie international gesetzten gesundheitspolitischen Restriktionen hart getroffen. Erste Daten zeigen bereits einen BIP-Rückgang im I. Quartal in allen wichtigen Wirtschaftsregionen. Die Vertrauensindikatoren brachen auf ein Niveau wie während der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/09 ein. Auch in Österreich sank die Wirtschaftsleistung bereits im I. Quartal. Besonders betroffen waren der Konsum sowie der Bereich Beherbergung und Gastronomie, Verkehr, Handel, Instandhaltung und Reparatur von Kfz sowie die sonstigen Dienstleistungen. Nachdem die Arbeitslosigkeit Ende März innerhalb von zwei Wochen massiv zugenommen hatte, stieg sie im April weiter, allerdings schwächer. Die Inflation ging im März zurück." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © WIFO - Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

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Bilge, Pınar, Asım Can Alkan & Ruzin Ağanoğlu (2020): Managing work-life balance during the Covid-19 crisis. A Survey with 1500+ participants worldwide. Berlin, XVII, 189 S.

Abstract

"Seit April 2020 leben ca. 80% aller Arbeitskräfte weltweit aufgrund der COVID-19-Pandemie mit obligatorischen oder empfohlenen Schließungen von Arbeitsplätzen. Arbeitskräfte sind gezwungen von Zuhause aus zu arbeiten. Bei der Arbeit im Homeoffice führen die fehlende Trennung von Beruf und Familie sowie die zusätzliche Belastung durch Homeschooling zu Stress, insbesondere bei Frauen. Das zeigt eine weltweit angelegte Online-Umfrage des Arbeitskreises Chancengleichheit der Deutschen Physikalischen Gesellschaft (DPG), an der zwischen Mitte April und Ende Juni 2020 über 1500 überwiegend aus Europa stammende Beschäftigte teilnahmen. 70 Prozent der Befragten hatten eine akademische Position inne und 43 Prozent einen Hintergrund in Physik. Paare (ohne Kinder) im Alter zwischen 30 und 39 Jahren mit mehr als zehn Jahren Berufserfahrung stellten dabei die größte Gruppe dar." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Boeri, Tito, Alessandro Caiumi & Marco Paccagnella (2020): Mitigating the work-safety trade-off. In: Covid economics H. 2, S. 60-66.

Abstract

"How many jobs can be carried out without putting workers at risk of contracting Covid-19? And how many of these jobs can be activated as soon as the most severe restrictions to mobility will be lifted? To which extent do these jobs belong to the chain involved in the war against Covid-19? In this paper, we aim to provide preliminary answers to these questions drawing on the case of Italy, the first Western country to be hit by the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bol, Thijs (2020): Inequality homeschooling during the Corona crisis in the Netherlands. First results from the LISS panel. (SocArxiv papers), 20 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/hf32q

Abstract

"The outbreak of the Corona virus has led to unprecedented measures in education. From March 16, all schools in the Netherlands are closed, and children must keep up with their schoolwork from home. Parents are expected to take a crucial role in this “homeschooling”: they are primarily responsible for ensuring that their children follow the curriculum. In this article I report the first results of a module in the LISS Panel that was designed to map how parents school their children in primary and secondary education. Data on a nationally representative sample of 1,318 children in primary and secondary education were gathered in April. The results show marked differences between social groups. Whereas all parents find it important that their children keep up with the schoolwork, children from advantaged backgrounds receive much more parental support and have more resources (e.g., own computer) to study from home. Differences in parental support are driven by the ability to help: parents with a higher education degree feels themselves much capable to help their children with schoolwork than lower educated parents. Parents also report that schools provide more extensive distant schooling for children in the academic track in secondary education (vwo) than for children in the pre-vocational track (vmbo). Finally, there is a clear gender gap: parents feel much more capable to support their daughters than their sons. These initial findings provide clear indications that the school shutdown in the Netherlands is likely to have strong effects on the inequality in educational opportunities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Boumans, Dorine, Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer (2020): Covid-19: Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation. Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Expertenumfrage. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 73, H. 5, S. 52-56.

Abstract

"Das ifo Institut hat rund 1 000 Ökonom*innen in 110 Ländern zu den Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft befragt: Die Pandemie wird das Wirtschaftsgeschehen rund um den Globus über eine Vielzahl verschiedener Wirkungskanälen negativ beeinflussen. Die Expert*innen sind der Ansicht, dass sich vor allem Investitionskürzungen erheblich negativ auswirken werden, stellen aber auch steigende Haushaltsdefizite der Staaten, geringere Konsumausgaben sowie Unternehmensschließungen und die Probleme in den internationalen Lieferketten als starke Behinderungsgründe fest. In der Folge erwarten sie für das Jahr 2020 schwere Rezessionen in fast allen Ländern, die zusammengenommen zu einem Rückgang der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung um – 1,9% führen dürften. Nur noch wenige Länder, wie etwa China oder Indien, dürften im Jahr 2020 mit historisch niedrigen Raten wachsen. Dennoch sind auch in diesen Ländern die Erwartungen deutlich pessimistischer als vor Ausbruch der Krise. Die Expert*innen stufen Liquiditätshilfen sowie vorübergehende Steuerstundungen für Unternehmen derzeit als die bei weitem effektivsten wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des wirtschaftlichen Schadens ein. Im Gegensatz dazu halten sie Helikoptergeld oder eine gelockerte Bankenaufsicht für wenig geeignet, um die gegenwärtige Krise zu bekämpfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Boumans, Dorine, Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer (2020): Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation. Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Expertenumfrage. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 73, H. 5, S. 52-56.

Abstract

"Das ifo Institut hat rund 1 000 Ökonom*innen in 110 Ländern zu den Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft befragt: Die Pandemie wird das Wirtschaftsgeschehen rund um den Globus über eine Vielzahl verschiedener Wirkungskanälen negativ beeinflussen. Die Expert*innen sind der Ansicht, dass sich vor allem Investitionskürzungen erheblich negativ auswirken werden, stellen aber auch steigende Haushaltsdefizite der Staaten, geringere Konsumausgaben sowie Unternehmensschließungen und die Probleme in den internationalen Lieferketten als starke Behinderungsgründe fest. In der Folge erwarten sie für das Jahr 2020 schwere Rezessionen in fast allen Ländern, die zusammengenommen zu einem Rückgang der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung um –1,9% führen dürften. Nur noch wenige Länder, wie etwa China oder Indien, dürften im Jahr 2020 mit historisch niedrigen Raten wachsen. Dennoch sind auch in diesen Ländern die Erwartungen deutlich pessimistischer als vor Ausbruch der Krise. Die Expert*innen stufen Liquiditätshilfen sowie vorübergehende Steuerstundungen für Unternehmen derzeit als die bei weitem effektivsten wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des wirtschaftlichen Schadens ein. Im Gegensatz dazu halten sie Helikoptergeld oder eine gelockerte Bankenaufsicht für wenig geeignet, um die gegenwärtige Krise zu bekämpfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bradley, Jake, Alessandro Ruggieri & Adam Hal Spencer (2020): Twin peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market. In: Covid economics H. 29, S. 164-192.

Abstract

"This paper develops a choice-theoretic equilibrium model of the labor market in the presence of a pandemic. It includes heterogeneity in productivity, age and the ability to work at home. Worker and firm behavior changes in the presence of the virus, which itself has equilibrium consequences for the infection rate. The model is calibrated to the UK and counterfactual lockdown measures are evaluated. We find a different response in both the evolution of the virus and the labor market with different degrees of severity of lockdown. We use these insights to make a labor market policy prescription to be used in conjunction with lockdown measures. Finally we find that, while the pandemic and ensuing policies impact the majority of the population negatively, consistent with recent studies, the costs are not borne equally. While the old face the highest health risks, it is the young low wage workers who suffer the most income and employment risk." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bredemeier, Christian, Falko Juessen & Roland Winkler (2020): Bringing back the jobs lost to Covid-19: The role of fiscal policy. In: Covid economics H. 29, S. 99-141.

Abstract

"Covid-19 induced job losses occurred predominantly in industries with intensive worker-client interaction as well as in pink-collar and bluecollar occupations. We study the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize employment by occupation and industry during the Covid-19 crisis. We use a multi-sector, multi-occupation macroeconomic model and investigate different fiscal policy instruments that help the economy recover faster. We show that fiscal stimuli foster job growth for hardhit pink-collar workers, whereas stimulating blue-collar job creation is more challenging. A cut in labor taxes performs best in stabilizing total employment and the employment composition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Regina Konle-Seidl (2020): Folgen der Corona-Krise für die sozialen Sicherungssysteme im Ländervergleich (Serie "Corona-Krise: Folgen für den Arbeitsmarkt"). In: IAB-Forum H. 02.10.2020 Nürnberg, o. Sz., 2020-10-01.

Abstract

"Ähnlich wie in Deutschland hat die Corona-Krise auch in anderen Ländern Lücken in der sozialen Absicherung bestimmter Beschäftigtengruppen offenbart. Um diese in der Krise besser zu schützen, wurde eine Reihe von Sozialleistungen länderübergreifend ausgeweitet. Gleichwohl besteht auch über die Krise hinaus Handlungsbedarf. So bedarf es etwa in Deutschland vor allem einer grundlegenden Reform der Minijobs und einer besseren Absicherung von Solo-Selbstständigen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Caggiano, Giovanni, Efrem Castelnuovo & Richard Kima (2020): The Global Effects of Covid-19-Induced Uncertainty. (CESifo working paper 8280), München, 11 S.

Abstract

"We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz & Ahu Yildirmaz (2020): The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession. (Working paper / Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics 2020-58), Chicago, 50 S.

Abstract

"Using weekly, anonymized administrative payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll processing company, we measure the deterioration of the U.S. labor market during the first two months of the global COVID-19 pandemic. We find that U.S. private-sector employment contracted by about 22 percent between mid-February and mid-April. Businesses suspending operations|perhaps temporarily|account for a significant share of employment losses, particularly among smaller businesses. Hours worked for continuing workers fell by 4.5 percent. We highlight large differences in employment declines by industry, business size, state of residence, and demographic group. Workers in the bottom quintile of the wage distribution experienced a 35 percent employment decline while those in the top quintile experienced only a 9 percent decline. Large differences across the wage distribution persist even after conditioning on worker age, business industry, business size, and worker location. As a result, average base wages increased by over 5 percent, though this increase arose entirely through a composition effect. Over- all, we document that the speed and magnitude of labor market deterioration during the early parts of the pandemic were unprecedented in the postwar period, particularly for the bottom of the earnings distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cassells, Rebecca & Alan Duncan (2020): JobKeeper: The efficacy of Australia’s first short-time wage subsidy. In: Australian Journal of Labour Economics, Jg. 23, H. 2, S. 99-128.

Abstract

"The Australian JobKeeper wage subsidy is an unprecedented public policy response to a once in a century health and economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The focus of this paper is on the efficacy of the Australian JobKeeper program design, including how well it meets its overall objective of retaining employer-employee matches; how well it is targeted relative to the needs of both businesses and workers; and the adequacy of JobKeeper as a wage replacement scheme. We consider both the original JobKeeper design, JobKeeper 2.0 and a series of alternative wage subsidy designs that we believe would more effectively target both employers and workers, incentivise a reallocation of labour and support a faster economic recovery." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chen, Sophia, Deniz Igan, Nicola Pierri & Andrea F. Presbitero (2020): Tracking the economic impact of COVID-19 and mitigation policies in Europe and the United States. In: Covid economics H. 36, S. 1-24.

Abstract

"We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 is mostly captured by observed changes in people’s mobility, while, so far, there is no robust evidence supporting additional impact from the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions. The deterioration of economic conditions preceded the introduction of these policies and a gradual recovery also started before formal reopening, highlighting the importance of voluntary social distancing, communication, and trust-building measures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cho, Seung Jin, Jun Yeong Lee & John V. Winters (2020): Employment Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic across Metropolitan Status and Size. (IZA discussion paper 13468), 36 S.

Abstract

"We examine effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment losses across metropolitan area status and population size. Non-metropolitan and metropolitan areas of all sizes experienced significant employment losses, but the impacts are much larger in large metropolitan areas. Employment losses manifest as increased unemployment, labor force withdrawal, and temporary absence from work. We examine the role of individual and local area characteristics in explaining differing employment losses across metropolitan status and size. The local COVID-19 infection rate is a major driver of differences across MSA size. Industry mix and employment density also matter. The pandemic significantly altered urban economic activity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & John Coglianese (2020): Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession. (NBER working paper 27566), 22 S. DOI:10.3386/w27566

Abstract

"We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment. Step 1: estimate individual transition hazards across employment, temporary layoff, permanent layoff, quitter, entrant, and out of the labor force, with each hazard depending on an aggregate component as well as an individual's labor force history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of individual labor force histories. Applying our approach to the July Blue Chip forecast of the COVID-19 recession, we project that 1.6 million workers laid off in April 2020 remain unemployed six months later. Total long-term unemployment rises thereafter and eventually reaches more 4.5 million individuals unemployed for more than 26 weeks and almost 2 million individuals unemployed for more than 46 weeks. Long-term unemployment rises even more in a more pessimistic recovery scenario, but remains below the level in the Great Recession due to a high amount of labor market churn." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber (2020): The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending. (IZA discussion paper 13224), 50 S.

Abstract

"We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth losses due to the corona virus, with the average losses being $5,293 and $33,482 respectively. Aggregate consumer spending dropped by 31 log percentage points with the largest drops in travel and clothing. We find that households living in counties that went into lockdown earlier expect the unemployment rate over the next twelve months to be 13 percentage points higher and continue to expect higher unemployment at horizons of three to five years. They also expect lower future inflation, report higher uncertainty, expect lower mortgage rates for up to 10 years, and have moved out of foreign stocks into liquid forms of savings. The imposition of lockdowns can account for much of the decline in employment in recent months as well as declines in consumer spending. While lockdowns have pronounced effects on local economic conditions and households’ expectations, they have little impact on approval ratings of Congress, the Fed, or the Treasury but lead to declines in the approval of the President." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber (2020): Labor Markets during the COVID-19 Crisis. A Preliminary View. (IZA discussion paper 13139), Bonn, 13 S.

Abstract

"We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic. We document several facts. First, job loss has been significantly larger than implied by new unemployment claims: we estimate 20 million lost jobs by April 8th, far more than jobs lost over the entire Great Recession. Second, many of those losing jobs are not actively looking to find new ones. As a result, we estimate the rise in the unemployment rate over the corresponding period to be surprisingly small, only about 2 percentage points. Third, participation in the labor force has declined by 7 percentage points, an unparalleled fall that dwarfs the three percentage point cumulative decline that occurred from 2008 to 2016. Early retirement almost fully explains the drop in labor force participation both for those survey participants previously employed and those previously looking for work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dalton, Michael, Elizabeth Weber Handwerker & Mark A. Loewenstein (2020): Employment changes by employer size during the COVID-19 pandemic: a look at the Current Employment Statistics survey microdata. In: Monthly labor review, Jg. 143, H. October. DOI:10.21916/mlr.2020.23

Abstract

"We use the Current Employment Statistics survey microdata for the private sector to calculate employment changes since February 2020 by employer size. We find that for employers with 1 to 9 employees, the largest component of employment change since February is closings (either temporary or permanent) in all months. For employers with 10 or more employees, the largest component of employment change since February is within employers that have continued to report nonzero employment to the survey, rather than within those reporting zero employment or from imputed closures from nonrespondents to the survey. In percentage terms, the greatest overall employment losses shifted to larger and larger employers each month from March through July. However, the largest employers recovered employment faster than smaller employers from July to September. By September, the largest cumulative employment losses were for employers with 50 to 499 employees, with employment losses of 6.5 percent since February. Meanwhile, by September, employers with 1 to 9 employees had employment losses of 3.3 percent since February." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Deb, Pragyan, Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry & Nour Tawk (2020): The economic effects of COVID-19 containment measures. In: VOX H. 17.06.2020, o. Sz.

Abstract

"Containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus pandemic entail large short-term economic costs. This column attempts to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and daily indicators of economic activity. Over a 30-day period from implementation, containment measures have, on average, led to a loss of about 15% in industrial production. Macroeconomic policy measures have however mitigated some of these economic costs. Stay-at-home requirements and workplace closures are most effective in curbing both infections and deaths but are also associated with the largest economic costs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Demertzis, Maria, André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra & Guntram B. Wolff (2020): An effective economic response to the coronavirus in Europe. (Bruegel policy contribution 2020,6), Brüssel, 10 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major shock to the global and European economy. Most European countries will need to take bold quarantine and lock-down measures, as has been done in Italy, to prevent an explosion of the epidemic which would lead to many deaths and the collapse of healthcare systems. The economic consequences of such measures are major, and are felt through both supply and demand-side channels. A coordinated and bold response by authorities is necessary. First, ample national funds need to be provided to national health services. Second, targeted measures to support individuals (such as the self-employed), companies and the local communities most affected should be put in place or reinforced. Third, broad macroeconomic insurance needs to be provided because targeted measures will not cover the many second-round effects of the shock. To alleviate financial and cash-flow constraints, and to provide incentives to preserve employment, we recommend all European Union countries agree to halve companies' social security contributions for three months, or cut the payroll tax. Such measures could amount to support of some 2.5 percent of GDP and would be funded by increased national deficits. Last but not least, the European Central Bank should provide abundant liquidity, increase swap lines to ensure sufficient dollar liquidity and increase its sovereign-bond purchase programme to prevent distress in sovereign bond markets. 'Whatever it takes' needs to be the motto to preserve lives and reduce the impact on the economy of the epidemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))