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Vanhercke, Bart, Slavina Spasova & Boris Fronteddu (Hrsg.) (2021): Social policy in the European Union: state of play 2020. Facing the pandemic. (Social policy in the European Union : state of play ... 21), Brüssel, 220 S.

Abstract

"Sweeping across Asia like the hordes of Genghis Khan, the Covid-19 virus struck Europe in the early weeks of 2020. With the pandemic tightening its grip on populations across the continent, wide-ranging restrictions were implemented by Member State governments, albeit initially with little coordination from Brussels. With this as background for this year’s Bilan social, the first chapters analyse the impact of the pandemic on various aspects of intense EU social policymaking throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020. These include the EU’s quite effective coordination of public health measures and its unprecedented economic and social support measures. On the downside, gender equality has taken a hit, further raising the necessity for ambitious EU initiatives in this area. Moving away from the direct effects of the pandemic, the book goes on to look at how the Green Deal is being implemented and whether it has sufficient clout to meet the EU’s CO2 targets without overly impacting employment. Perhaps a completely new approach is needed. In the same vein, the book analyses recent developments in the European Semester, looking at how the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and the European Pillar of Social Rights are moving up the Semester agenda, albeit not without difficulty. The final chapter looks at the difficulties involved in introducing a common framework for fair minimum wages through binding EU legislation. With less wiggle room available to social affairs players under the new EU Recovery and Resilience Facility and the European Semester at least temporarily put on the back burner, the conclusions discuss whether the ongoing ‘crisisification’ of European policymaking may, ultimately, pave the way for further European integration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Weber, Enzo & Roman Neupert (2021): European labour market dynamics after the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis (Series "COVID-19 Crisis: Consequences for the Labour Market"). In: IAB-Forum H. 16.04.2021, o. Sz., 2021-04-15.

Abstract

"In the Covid-19 crisis, governments around the world are struggling to secure jobs and businesses. Short-time work and comprehensive liquidity support benefit companies, which have so far relied more on these measures than on layoffs. However, the uncertain economic outlook deters many firms from hiring new staff. Also, the number of potential workers is declining throughout Europe, as many are withdrawing from the labour market. In order to analyse the mechanisms behind these dropping employment figures, this article gives an outline of developments in labour market flow statistics in Europe after the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Winters, John V. (2021): Young and Hungry? Employment Levels for Young People During Spring 2021. (IZA discussion paper 14508), Bonn, 8 S.

Abstract

"This article examines employment rates for persons in their teens and early 20s during April and May 2021 compared to April and May 2019. Employment rates for teens are significantly higher in Spring 2021 than in Spring 2019. However, individuals ages 20-24 experienced significantly lower employment rates in Spring 2021 than in Spring 2019. Differing employment patterns for these two age groups are unlikely to reflect childcare issues or lingering COVID-19 concerns. Restaurant employment rates suggest that weak labor demand is likely not the predominant factor. One plausible explanation is that teenagers are less influenced by generous unemployment insurance benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Wolter, Stefan C. (2021): Eine Ausbildungskrise, die (noch) keine war - Schweizer Erfahrungen in der COVID-19-Krise. In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis, Jg. 50, H. 2, S. 15-19.

Abstract

"Entgegen den Erwartungen, die man basierend auf den Erfahrungen aus früheren Rezessionen bilden musste, hat der Lehrstellenmarkt in der Schweiz die durch die COVID-19-Pandemie ausgelöste Rezession bislang unbeschadet überstanden. Die Vielfalt der Maßnahmen, die dafür direkt oder indirekt verantwortlich sein könnten, verunmöglicht allerdings ein Urteil darüber, welche Maßnahme nützte und welche nicht. Die überraschend gut überstandene Krise ist aber keine Garantie, dass ein weiterer Stresstest 2021 ebenfalls glimpflich abläuft, wenn man die hohe Verunsicherung der Betriebe im Herbst 2020 als Maßstab für die weitere Entwicklung des Lehrstellenmarkts nimmt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"The European Grouping of Societies of Authors and Composers (GESAC) commissioned EY teams to produce a report on the state of the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) in Europe. What was their economic situation before the COVID-19 crisis? What impact has the crisis had on activity and employment? And what are the main priorities for the sector to protect itself from the most serious consequences, to recover growth and enhance its value in the European economy? This study follows a report of the same type, entitled Creating Growth, published in December 2014.GESAC has brought together numerous partners representing the CCIs, in order to reflect the diversity and collective strength of this economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"The latest analysis of the labour market impact of COVID-19 by the ILO, records massive damage to working time and income, with prospects for a recovery in 2021 slow, uneven and uncertain unless early improvements are supported by human-centred recovery policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2021): World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2021. (World employment and social outlook. Trends), Genf, 161 S.

Abstract

"In addition to being a health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic is also an employment crisis. Lockdowns and other measures adopted to curb the spread of the coronavirus have disrupted labour markets worldwide, leaving few workers unaffected. This report details the effects of the crisis on the world of work, examining global and regional trends in employment, unemployment, labour force participation and productivity, alongside such dimensions of job quality as employment status, informal employment and working poverty. It also offers an extensive analysis of the differential impact of the crisis on enterprises and workers. The report provides forecasts of the post-pandemic employment recovery, which though predicted to be strong, will nonetheless be insufficient to close the gaps opened up by the crisis. Workers whose labour market situation was most disadvantageous before the crisis – women, young people, migrants, informal workers and those in lower-skilled occupations – have suffered disproportionately from the fallout of the crisis. In view of these pressing challenges, the report proposes a human-centred recovery strategy to prevent the “scarring” of global labour markets for years to come." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2021): Taxing Wages 2021. Special Feature: Impact of Covid-19 on the Tax Wedge In OECD Countries. (Taxing wages / OECD 2021), Paris, 648 S. DOI:10.1787/83a87978-en

Abstract

"This annual publication provides details of taxes paid on wages in OECD countries. It covers personal income taxes and social security contributions paid by employees, social security contributions and payroll taxes paid by employers, and cash benefits received by workers. It illustrates how these taxes and benefits are calculated in each member country and examines how they impact household incomes. The results also enable quantitative cross-country comparisons of labour cost levels and the overall tax and benefit position of single persons and families on different levels of earnings. The publication shows average and marginal effective tax rates on labour costs for eight different household types, which vary by income level and household composition (single persons, single parents, one or two earner couples with or without children). The average tax rates measure the part of gross wage earnings or labour costs taken in tax and social security contributions, both before and after cash benefits, and the marginal tax rates the part of a small increase of gross earnings or labour costs that is paid in these levies. Taxing Wages 2021 includes a special feature entitled: “Impact of COVID-19 on the Tax Wedge in OECD Countries”." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2021): OECD Economic Outlook, May 2021. Volume 2021 Issue 1 : Preliminary version. (OECD economic outlook 109), Paris, 218 S. DOI:10.1787/edfbca02-en

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a long shadow over the world’s economies. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 1, highlights the improved prospects for the global economy due to vaccinations and stronger policy support, but also points to uneven progress across countries and key risks and challenges in maintaining and strengthening the recovery. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2021): OECD Employment Outlook 2021. Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis and Recovery. (OECD employment outlook), Paris, 400 S. DOI:10.1787/5a700c4b-en

Abstract

"The 2021 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook focusses on the labour market implications of the COVID‑19 crisis. Chapters 1-3 concentrate on the main labour market and social challenges brought about by the crisis and the policies to address them. Chapters 4-5 cover long-standing structural issues but also discuss their relevance and implications for the COVID-19 crisis. More specifically, Chapter 1 monitors the impact of the crisis on the labour market, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups in the medium and long term. Chapter 2 provides a preliminary assessment of the role of job retention schemes in preserving jobs during the COVID-19 crisis. Chapter 3 analyses how active labour market policies and public employment services have responded to the challenges posed by the crisis. Chapter 4 assesses the extent and consequences of domestic outsourcing for the labour market in general, and for low-wage occupations in particular. Chapter 5 provides a detailed review of statutory and negotiated regulations governing working time – including teleworking – as well as an overview of trends in working time patterns and time use across OECD countries and socio-demographic groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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(2021): Quarterly Review of Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) - March 2021. (Employment and social developments in Europe : Quarterly review), Luxembourg, 27 S.

Abstract

"Selbstständige sind durch eine starke Verkürzung ihrer Arbeitszeit und schwerwiegendere Einkommensverluste EU-weit besonders stark von den Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie betroffen. Das zeigt ein Quartalsbericht zu Beschäftigung und sozialen Entwicklungen in Europa (ESDE) mit einem thematischen Schwerpunkt auf die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie auf Selbstständige. Die nationalen Sozialschutzsysteme bieten in der Regel eine geringere Absicherung und Entschädigung für Selbstständige. Insgesamt zeigt der Bericht, dass sich die Maßnahmen zum Schutz von Arbeitsplätzen als wirksam erwiesen und die Widerstandsfähigkeit des Arbeitsmarktes verbessert haben. In den letzten Monaten des Jahres 2020 stieg die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen moderat an und die Arbeitslosigkeit blieb stabil." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Aaronson, Daniel, Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Daniel W. Sacks & Boyoung Seo (2020): Using the eye of the storm to predict the wave of Covid-19 UI claims. In: Covid economics H. 9, S. 59-76.

Abstract

"We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic "unemployment," we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates and demonstrate their use within a broader forecasting framework for US economic activity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Adams-Prassl, Abi, Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin & Christopher Rauh (2020): Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock. Evidence from Real Time Surveys. (IZA discussion paper 13183), Bonn, 49 S.

Abstract

"We present real time survey evidence from the UK, US and Germany showing that the labor market impacts of COVID-19 differ considerably across countries. Employees in Germany, which has a well-established short-time work scheme, are substantially less likely to be affected by the crisis. Within countries, the impacts are highly unequal and exacerbate existing inequalities. Workers in alternative work arrangements and in occupations in which only a small share of tasks can be done from home are more likely to have reduced their hours, lost their jobs and suffered falls in earnings. Less educated workers and women are more affected by the crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ahrendt, Daphne & Massimiliano Mascherini (2020): Living, working and COVID-19. (Eurofound. First findings), Dublin, 10 S.

Abstract

"In the space of just a few weeks, the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus has radically transformed the lives of people around the globe. Apart from the devastating health consequences on people directly affected by the virus, the COVID-19 pandemic has had major implications for the way people live and work, affecting their physical and mental well-being in a profound way. To capture the immediate economic and social effects of this crisis, Eurofound launched a large-scale online survey across the European Union and beyond on 9 April. Entitled Living, working and COVID-19, the aim of the survey is to investigate the impact on well-being, work and telework and on the financial situation of people living in Europe. It includes a range of questions relevant to people across various age groups and life situations. Most of the questions are based on Eurofound’s European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS) and European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS), while other questions are new or were adapted from other sources, such as the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Andrew, Alison, Sarah Cattan, Monica Costa Dias, Christine Farquharson, Lucy Kraftman, Sonya Krutikova, Angus Phimister & Almudena Sevilla (2020): How are mothers and fathers balancing work and family under lockdown? (IFS briefing notes 290), London, 30 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 crisis has caused drastic changes to most parents’ work lives and other responsibilities. Millions of adults have lost or are forecast to lose their jobs permanently; many more have stopped work temporarily. Others are newly working from home, while many key workers are experiencing additional pressures and risks in their work. For most parents, school and childcare closures have meant that children are at home, and requiring care, for at least an extra six hours a day. In this report, we examine new data collected since the end of April to investigate how this crisis has affected mothers and fathers in two-parent opposite-gender families. Our survey allows up-to-date insights into the labour market shocks that parents have faced and how parents are balancing their responsibilities under lockdown. In this piece, we focus on how parents divide their time between childcare, housework and paid work, how these arrangements are changing with the lockdown, and the extent to which they vary between men and women." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Angelini, Elena, Matthieu Darracq-Pariès, Srečko Zimic & Milan Damjanović (2020): ECB-BASIR: a primer on the macroeconomic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 2431), Frankfurt am Main, 38 S. DOI:10.2866/14144

Abstract

"This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and makes a first step in adapting the central bank modelling apparatus to the new economic landscape. We augment the ECB-BASE model with the predictive dynamics of the SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy. Containment policies considerably reduce the share of infected and deceased people, but generate a sharp decline in economic activity. Barring the materialization of amplification risks, the induced recession may remain broadly V-shaped under targeted confinement policies. By comparison, a "Laissez-faire" approach to the pandemic emergency can even inflict in some cases higher long-term economic costs. Nevertheless, the depth of the recession and the speed of the recovery (if at all) crucially depend on the magnitude and persistence of the supply-side retrenchment, as well as on the risk of macro-financial feedback loops." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Azmat, Ghazala, Lena Hensvik & Olof Rosenqvist (2020): Presenteeism at work and gender inequality. In: VOX H. 04.10.2020, o. Sz.

Abstract

"The recent COVID-19 public health crisis has – at least temporarily – changed the organisation of work and the requirement for presenteeism in the workplace. Using data from Sweden, this column argues that such change could help close the gender earnings gap by lowering the wage penalties to unpredictable work absence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baert, Stijn, Louis Lippens, Eline Moens, Philippe Sterkens & Johannes Weytjens (2020): How Do We Think the COVID-19 Crisis Will Affect Our Careers (If Any Remain)? (IZA discussion paper 13164), Bonn, 29 S.

Abstract

"This study is the first in the world to investigate the expected impact of the COVID-19 crisis on career outcomes and career aspirations. To this end, high-quality survey research with a relevant panel of Belgian employees was conducted. About 21% of them fear losing their jobs due to the crisis—14% are concerned that they will even lose their jobs in the near future. In addition, 26% expect to miss out on promotions that they would have received had the COVID-19 crisis not occurred. This fear of a negative impact is higher in vulnerable groups, such migrants. In addition, we observe that many panel members believe they will look at the labour market differently and will have different work-related priorities in the future. In this respect, more than half of the panel members indicate that they have attached more importance to working conditions and work-life balance since the COVID- 19 crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bairoliya, Neha & Ayse Imrohoroglu (2020): Macroeconomic consequences of stay-at-home policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. In: Covid economics H. 13, S. 71-90.

Abstract

"Older adults and those with underlying medical conditions seem especially vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. government’s efforts to contain the infection, on the other hand, have a disproportionate impact on the working age population. To be able to capture the impact of the pandemic and the resulting mitigation efforts on a population that is heterogeneous by age, income and health status, we use an overlapping generations model that mimics the U.S. economy along those dimensions in 2020. We introduce an unexpected COVID-19 shock in the economy and examine the resulting impact on aggregate output, labor supply, savings, and consumption behavior of the different agents. We find that mitigation efforts that target certain age and health groups result in significantly smaller disruptions in the economy. Going forward, introducing subsidies to those with underlying health conditions and/or the elderly to self isolate might prove to be a useful path in opening up the economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baker, Marissa G., Trevor K. Peckham & Noah S. Seixas (2020): Estimating the burden of United States workers exposed to infection or disease. A key factor in containing risk of COVID-19 infection. In: PLoS ONE, Jg. 15, H. 4. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0232452

Abstract

"Introduction: With the global spread of COVID-19, there is a compelling public health interest in quantifying who is at increased risk of contracting disease. Occupational characteristics, such as interfacing with the public and being in close quarters with other workers, not only put workers at high risk for disease, but also make them a nexus of disease transmission to the community. This can further be exacerbated through presenteeism, the term used to describe the act of coming to work despite being symptomatic for disease. Quantifying the number of workers who are frequently exposed to infection and disease in the workplace, and understanding which occupational groups they represent, can help to prompt public health risk response and management for COVID-19 in the workplace, and subsequent infectious disease outbreaks. Methods: To estimate the number of United States workers frequently exposed to infection and disease in the workplace, national employment data (by Standard Occupational Classification) maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was merged with a BLS O*NET survey measure reporting how frequently workers in each occupation are exposed to infection or disease at work. This allowed us to estimate the number of United States workers, across all occupations, exposed to disease or infection at work more than once a month. Results: Based on our analyses, approximately 10% (14.4 M) of United States workers are employed in occupations where exposure to disease or infection occurs at least once per week. Approximately 18.4% (26.7 M) of all United States workers are employed in occupations where exposure to disease or infection occurs at least once per month. While the majority of exposed workers are employed in healthcare sectors, other occupational sectors also have high proportions of exposed workers. These include protective service occupations (e.g. police officers, correctional officers, firefighters), office and administrative support occupations (e.g. couriers and messengers, patient service representatives), education occupations (e.g. preschool and daycare teachers), community and social services occupations (community health workers, social workers, counselors), and even construction and extraction occupations (e.g. plumbers, septic tank installers, elevator repair). Conclusions: The large number of persons employed in occupations with frequent exposure to infection and disease underscore the importance of all workplaces developing risk response plans for COVID-19. Given the proportion of the United States workforce exposed to disease or infection at work, this analysis also serves as an important reminder that the workplace is a key locus for public health interventions, which could protect both workers and the communities they serve." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baldwin, Richard & Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Hrsg.) (2020): Economics in the time of COVID-19. London: CEPR Press, 115 S.

Abstract

"COVID-19 may be as contagious economically as it is medically. This eBook addresses some key questions: How, and how far and fast, will the economic damage spread? How bad will it get? How long will the damage last? What are the mechanisms of economic contagion? And, above all, what can governments do about it?" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baldwin, Richard & Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Hrsg.) (2020): Mitigating the COVID economic crisis. Act fast and do whatever it takes. London: CEPR Press, 219 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 crisis has become more predictable in a sense. What was widely viewed as a 'Chinese problem,' and then an 'Italian problem' has become an 'everybody problem'. With few exceptions, governments initially downplay the disease until sustained community transmission takes hold. Then they impose severe social distancing policies, work and school closures and the like. This inevitably leads to almost immediate economic hardship, which then leads governments to propose increasingly bold anti-recession measures. This was the pattern in Europe and looks set to be the pattern in the US and many other nations. All this is due to the highly contagious nature of the virus, and the inexorable implications of its explosive spread during the 'acceleration phase' of the epidemic. This eBook is an attempt to collect the thinking of leading economists on what is to be done. In addition to contributing to analysis of the rapidly evolving policy reactions, we hope this eBook will help nations get ahead of the curve - to think ahead on the medical and economic policies that will be needed. The collected wisdom of our authors also points to another critical aspect of this crisis. Without care, solutions to one set of economic problems could - for some nations - turn this economic crisis into a financial crisis, or a debt crisis, or a foreign exchange crisis, etc. Care must be taken to ensure that temporary solutions don't create long-lasting problems. The size of the economic damage is still very uncertain, but it is certain that it will large. Governments now need to focus on mitigating that damage. This is the time to bring out the big artillery; this is not a time to be timid, but to do whatever it takes, fast." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Balleer, Almut, Britta Gehrke, Brigitte Hochmuth & Christian Merkl (2020): Guidelines for cost-effective use of SURE: Rule-based short-time work with workers’ consent and aligned replacement rates. In: VOX H. 01.05.2020, o. Sz., 2020-04-27.

Abstract

"In response to the COVID-19 crisis, the EU has implemented the SURE programme which provides loans up to €100 billion to member states for the support of short-time work systems. In order to obtain the maximum unemployment stabilisation with these funds, this column argues that the SURE loans should be used to support rule-based short-time work systems that require workers’ consent and that are aligned with national short-term unemployment benefit systems. During the COVID-19 crisis, additions to these rules may be appropriate." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bardt, Hubertus, Sandra Parthie, Ciro Rapacciuolo, Livio Romano, Christian Helmenstein, Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö & Emmanuel Jessua (2020): European rescue and recovery programmes against the Corona Crisis. (IW policy paper 2020,08), Köln, 7 S.

Abstract

"The current crisis is different from the situation 2008/2009, but again it is a tremendous challenge for the economies across Europe. The Corona-crisis is hitting the economies symmetrically, though with differences in magnitude levels, while the 2009 crisis was primarily a crisis of the banking industry and the manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Barro, Robert J., José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng (2020): The coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic. Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the coronavirus's potential effects on mortality and economic activity. (CESifo working paper 8166), München, 24 S.

Abstract

"Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bartik, Alexander W., Marianne Bertrand, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton (2020): How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey. (NBER working paper 26989), Cambridge, Mass., 35 S. DOI:10.3386/w26989

Abstract

"In addition to its impact on public health, COVID-19 has had a major impact on the economy. To shed light on how COVID-19 is affecting small businesses – and on the likely impact of the recent stimulus bill, we conducted a survey of more than 5,800 small businesses. Several main themes emerge from the results. First, mass layoffs and closures have already occurred. In our sample, 43 percent of businesses are temporarily closed, and businesses have – on average – reduced their employee counts by 40 percent relative to January. Second, consistent with previous literature, we find that many small businesses are financially fragile. For example, the median business has more than $10,000 in monthly expenses and less than one month of cash on hand. Third, businesses have widely varying beliefs about the likely duration of COVID related disruptions. Fourth, the majority of businesses planned to seek funding through the CARES act. However, many anticipated problems with accessing the aid, such as bureaucratic hassles and difficulties establishing eligibility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bartik, Alexander W., Marianne Bertrand, Feng Lin, Jesse Rothstein & Matt Unrath (2020): Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. (NBER working papers 27613), Cambridge, MA, 53 S. DOI:10.3386/w27613

Abstract

"We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from March to early July, contrast this downturn to previous recessions, and provide preliminary evidence on the effects of the policy response. For hourly workers at both small and large businesses, nearly all of the decline in employment occurred between March 14 and 28. It was driven by low-wage services, particularly the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. A large share of the job losses in small businesses reflected firms that closed entirely, though many subsequently reopened. Firms that were already unhealthy were more likely to close and less likely to reopen, and disadvantaged workers were more likely to be laid off and less likely to return. Most laid off workers expected to be recalled, and this was predictive of rehiring. Shelter-in-place orders drove only a small share of job losses. Last, states that received more small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program and states with more generous unemployment insurance benefits had milder declines and faster recoveries. We find no evidence that high UI replacement rates drove job losses or slowed rehiring." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Beck, Thorsten & Wolf Wagner (2020): National containment policies and international cooperation. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 120-134.

Abstract

"Policies that curtail social and economic activities during a pandemic are predominantly decided upon at the national level, but have international ramifications. In this paper we examine what type of inefficiencies this may create and how cooperation across countries may improve outcomes. We find that inefficiencies arise even among completely identical countries. We show that countries are likely to choose excessively lenient policies from the perspective of world welfare in later stages of the pandemic. This provides a rationale for setting minimum containment standards internationally. By contrast, in early and intermediate stages of the pandemic, national containment policies may also be excessively strict. Whether or not this is the case depends on a country's degree of economic integration relative to (outward and inward) mobility of people. Analyzing the stringency of containment policies during the current epidemic confirms that countries with higher economic integration adopt stringent containment policies more quickly whereas countries subject to high mobility do so later." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Beer, Sonja (2020): Die Corona-Krise in den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern: Eine Katastrophe naht. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,57), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"Seit Wochen breitet sich das Coronavirus im Westen stark aus. China ist die Eindämmung des Virus zum Teil gelungen. Obwohl die wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen in den meisten Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern bereits jetzt schon deutlich spürbar sind, steht im Hinblick auf die Verbreitung des Virus noch das Schlimmste bevor." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Beland, Louis-Philippe, Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright (2020): The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19. Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response. (IZA discussion paper 13159), Bonn, 91 S.

Abstract

"In this ongoing project, we examine the short-term consequences of COVID-19 on employment and wages in the United States. Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we document the impact of COVID-19 at the national-level using a simple difference and test whether states with relatively more confirmed cases/deaths were more affected. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 increased the unemployment rate, decreased hours of work and labor force participation and had no significant impacts on wages. The negative impacts on labor market outcomes are larger for men, younger workers, Hispanics and less educated workers. This suggest that COVID-19 increases labor market inequalities. We also investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We built three indexes using ACS and O*NET data: workers relatively more exposed to disease, workers that work with proximity to coworkers and workers who can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that individuals in occupations working in proximity to others are more affected while occupations able to work remotely are less affected. We also find that occupations classified as more exposed to disease are less affected, possibly due to the large number of essential workers in these occupations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bilek-Steindl, Sandra (2020): Internationaler Konjunktureinbruch als Folge der COVID-19-Pandemie. In: Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Jg. 93, H. 5, S. 327-334.

Abstract

"Die Weltwirtschaft wurde von den Auswirkungen der zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie international gesetzten gesundheitspolitischen Restriktionen hart getroffen. Erste Daten zeigen bereits einen BIP-Rückgang im I. Quartal in allen wichtigen Wirtschaftsregionen. Die Vertrauensindikatoren brachen auf ein Niveau wie während der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/09 ein. Auch in Österreich sank die Wirtschaftsleistung bereits im I. Quartal. Besonders betroffen waren der Konsum sowie der Bereich Beherbergung und Gastronomie, Verkehr, Handel, Instandhaltung und Reparatur von Kfz sowie die sonstigen Dienstleistungen. Nachdem die Arbeitslosigkeit Ende März innerhalb von zwei Wochen massiv zugenommen hatte, stieg sie im April weiter, allerdings schwächer. Die Inflation ging im März zurück." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © WIFO - Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

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Bilge, Pınar, Asım Can Alkan & Ruzin Ağanoğlu (2020): Managing work-life balance during the Covid-19 crisis. A Survey with 1500+ participants worldwide. Berlin, XVII, 189 S.

Abstract

"Seit April 2020 leben ca. 80% aller Arbeitskräfte weltweit aufgrund der COVID-19-Pandemie mit obligatorischen oder empfohlenen Schließungen von Arbeitsplätzen. Arbeitskräfte sind gezwungen von Zuhause aus zu arbeiten. Bei der Arbeit im Homeoffice führen die fehlende Trennung von Beruf und Familie sowie die zusätzliche Belastung durch Homeschooling zu Stress, insbesondere bei Frauen. Das zeigt eine weltweit angelegte Online-Umfrage des Arbeitskreises Chancengleichheit der Deutschen Physikalischen Gesellschaft (DPG), an der zwischen Mitte April und Ende Juni 2020 über 1500 überwiegend aus Europa stammende Beschäftigte teilnahmen. 70 Prozent der Befragten hatten eine akademische Position inne und 43 Prozent einen Hintergrund in Physik. Paare (ohne Kinder) im Alter zwischen 30 und 39 Jahren mit mehr als zehn Jahren Berufserfahrung stellten dabei die größte Gruppe dar." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Boeri, Tito, Alessandro Caiumi & Marco Paccagnella (2020): Mitigating the work-safety trade-off. In: Covid economics H. 2, S. 60-66.

Abstract

"How many jobs can be carried out without putting workers at risk of contracting Covid-19? And how many of these jobs can be activated as soon as the most severe restrictions to mobility will be lifted? To which extent do these jobs belong to the chain involved in the war against Covid-19? In this paper, we aim to provide preliminary answers to these questions drawing on the case of Italy, the first Western country to be hit by the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bol, Thijs (2020): Inequality homeschooling during the Corona crisis in the Netherlands. First results from the LISS panel. (SocArxiv papers), 20 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/hf32q

Abstract

"The outbreak of the Corona virus has led to unprecedented measures in education. From March 16, all schools in the Netherlands are closed, and children must keep up with their schoolwork from home. Parents are expected to take a crucial role in this “homeschooling”: they are primarily responsible for ensuring that their children follow the curriculum. In this article I report the first results of a module in the LISS Panel that was designed to map how parents school their children in primary and secondary education. Data on a nationally representative sample of 1,318 children in primary and secondary education were gathered in April. The results show marked differences between social groups. Whereas all parents find it important that their children keep up with the schoolwork, children from advantaged backgrounds receive much more parental support and have more resources (e.g., own computer) to study from home. Differences in parental support are driven by the ability to help: parents with a higher education degree feels themselves much capable to help their children with schoolwork than lower educated parents. Parents also report that schools provide more extensive distant schooling for children in the academic track in secondary education (vwo) than for children in the pre-vocational track (vmbo). Finally, there is a clear gender gap: parents feel much more capable to support their daughters than their sons. These initial findings provide clear indications that the school shutdown in the Netherlands is likely to have strong effects on the inequality in educational opportunities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Boumans, Dorine, Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer (2020): Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation. Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Expertenumfrage. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 73, H. 5, S. 52-56.

Abstract

"Das ifo Institut hat rund 1 000 Ökonom*innen in 110 Ländern zu den Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft befragt: Die Pandemie wird das Wirtschaftsgeschehen rund um den Globus über eine Vielzahl verschiedener Wirkungskanälen negativ beeinflussen. Die Expert*innen sind der Ansicht, dass sich vor allem Investitionskürzungen erheblich negativ auswirken werden, stellen aber auch steigende Haushaltsdefizite der Staaten, geringere Konsumausgaben sowie Unternehmensschließungen und die Probleme in den internationalen Lieferketten als starke Behinderungsgründe fest. In der Folge erwarten sie für das Jahr 2020 schwere Rezessionen in fast allen Ländern, die zusammengenommen zu einem Rückgang der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung um –1,9% führen dürften. Nur noch wenige Länder, wie etwa China oder Indien, dürften im Jahr 2020 mit historisch niedrigen Raten wachsen. Dennoch sind auch in diesen Ländern die Erwartungen deutlich pessimistischer als vor Ausbruch der Krise. Die Expert*innen stufen Liquiditätshilfen sowie vorübergehende Steuerstundungen für Unternehmen derzeit als die bei weitem effektivsten wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des wirtschaftlichen Schadens ein. Im Gegensatz dazu halten sie Helikoptergeld oder eine gelockerte Bankenaufsicht für wenig geeignet, um die gegenwärtige Krise zu bekämpfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Boumans, Dorine, Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer (2020): Covid-19: Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation. Erkenntnisse aus einer weltweiten Expertenumfrage. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 73, H. 5, S. 52-56.

Abstract

"Das ifo Institut hat rund 1 000 Ökonom*innen in 110 Ländern zu den Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf die Weltwirtschaft befragt: Die Pandemie wird das Wirtschaftsgeschehen rund um den Globus über eine Vielzahl verschiedener Wirkungskanälen negativ beeinflussen. Die Expert*innen sind der Ansicht, dass sich vor allem Investitionskürzungen erheblich negativ auswirken werden, stellen aber auch steigende Haushaltsdefizite der Staaten, geringere Konsumausgaben sowie Unternehmensschließungen und die Probleme in den internationalen Lieferketten als starke Behinderungsgründe fest. In der Folge erwarten sie für das Jahr 2020 schwere Rezessionen in fast allen Ländern, die zusammengenommen zu einem Rückgang der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung um – 1,9% führen dürften. Nur noch wenige Länder, wie etwa China oder Indien, dürften im Jahr 2020 mit historisch niedrigen Raten wachsen. Dennoch sind auch in diesen Ländern die Erwartungen deutlich pessimistischer als vor Ausbruch der Krise. Die Expert*innen stufen Liquiditätshilfen sowie vorübergehende Steuerstundungen für Unternehmen derzeit als die bei weitem effektivsten wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des wirtschaftlichen Schadens ein. Im Gegensatz dazu halten sie Helikoptergeld oder eine gelockerte Bankenaufsicht für wenig geeignet, um die gegenwärtige Krise zu bekämpfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bradley, Jake, Alessandro Ruggieri & Adam Hal Spencer (2020): Twin peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market. In: Covid economics H. 29, S. 164-192.

Abstract

"This paper develops a choice-theoretic equilibrium model of the labor market in the presence of a pandemic. It includes heterogeneity in productivity, age and the ability to work at home. Worker and firm behavior changes in the presence of the virus, which itself has equilibrium consequences for the infection rate. The model is calibrated to the UK and counterfactual lockdown measures are evaluated. We find a different response in both the evolution of the virus and the labor market with different degrees of severity of lockdown. We use these insights to make a labor market policy prescription to be used in conjunction with lockdown measures. Finally we find that, while the pandemic and ensuing policies impact the majority of the population negatively, consistent with recent studies, the costs are not borne equally. While the old face the highest health risks, it is the young low wage workers who suffer the most income and employment risk." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bredemeier, Christian, Falko Juessen & Roland Winkler (2020): Bringing back the jobs lost to Covid-19: The role of fiscal policy. In: Covid economics H. 29, S. 99-141.

Abstract

"Covid-19 induced job losses occurred predominantly in industries with intensive worker-client interaction as well as in pink-collar and bluecollar occupations. We study the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize employment by occupation and industry during the Covid-19 crisis. We use a multi-sector, multi-occupation macroeconomic model and investigate different fiscal policy instruments that help the economy recover faster. We show that fiscal stimuli foster job growth for hardhit pink-collar workers, whereas stimulating blue-collar job creation is more challenging. A cut in labor taxes performs best in stabilizing total employment and the employment composition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Regina Konle-Seidl (2020): Folgen der Corona-Krise für die sozialen Sicherungssysteme im Ländervergleich (Serie "Corona-Krise: Folgen für den Arbeitsmarkt"). In: IAB-Forum H. 02.10.2020 Nürnberg, o. Sz., 2020-10-01.

Abstract

"Ähnlich wie in Deutschland hat die Corona-Krise auch in anderen Ländern Lücken in der sozialen Absicherung bestimmter Beschäftigtengruppen offenbart. Um diese in der Krise besser zu schützen, wurde eine Reihe von Sozialleistungen länderübergreifend ausgeweitet. Gleichwohl besteht auch über die Krise hinaus Handlungsbedarf. So bedarf es etwa in Deutschland vor allem einer grundlegenden Reform der Minijobs und einer besseren Absicherung von Solo-Selbstständigen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Caggiano, Giovanni, Efrem Castelnuovo & Richard Kima (2020): The Global Effects of Covid-19-Induced Uncertainty. (CESifo working paper 8280), München, 11 S.

Abstract

"We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz & Ahu Yildirmaz (2020): The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession. (Working paper / Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics 2020-58), Chicago, 50 S.

Abstract

"Using weekly, anonymized administrative payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll processing company, we measure the deterioration of the U.S. labor market during the first two months of the global COVID-19 pandemic. We find that U.S. private-sector employment contracted by about 22 percent between mid-February and mid-April. Businesses suspending operations|perhaps temporarily|account for a significant share of employment losses, particularly among smaller businesses. Hours worked for continuing workers fell by 4.5 percent. We highlight large differences in employment declines by industry, business size, state of residence, and demographic group. Workers in the bottom quintile of the wage distribution experienced a 35 percent employment decline while those in the top quintile experienced only a 9 percent decline. Large differences across the wage distribution persist even after conditioning on worker age, business industry, business size, and worker location. As a result, average base wages increased by over 5 percent, though this increase arose entirely through a composition effect. Over- all, we document that the speed and magnitude of labor market deterioration during the early parts of the pandemic were unprecedented in the postwar period, particularly for the bottom of the earnings distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cassells, Rebecca & Alan Duncan (2020): JobKeeper: The efficacy of Australia’s first short-time wage subsidy. In: Australian Journal of Labour Economics, Jg. 23, H. 2, S. 99-128.

Abstract

"The Australian JobKeeper wage subsidy is an unprecedented public policy response to a once in a century health and economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The focus of this paper is on the efficacy of the Australian JobKeeper program design, including how well it meets its overall objective of retaining employer-employee matches; how well it is targeted relative to the needs of both businesses and workers; and the adequacy of JobKeeper as a wage replacement scheme. We consider both the original JobKeeper design, JobKeeper 2.0 and a series of alternative wage subsidy designs that we believe would more effectively target both employers and workers, incentivise a reallocation of labour and support a faster economic recovery." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chen, Sophia, Deniz Igan, Nicola Pierri & Andrea F. Presbitero (2020): Tracking the economic impact of COVID-19 and mitigation policies in Europe and the United States. In: Covid economics H. 36, S. 1-24.

Abstract

"We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 is mostly captured by observed changes in people’s mobility, while, so far, there is no robust evidence supporting additional impact from the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions. The deterioration of economic conditions preceded the introduction of these policies and a gradual recovery also started before formal reopening, highlighting the importance of voluntary social distancing, communication, and trust-building measures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cho, Seung Jin, Jun Yeong Lee & John V. Winters (2020): Employment Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic across Metropolitan Status and Size. (IZA discussion paper 13468), 36 S.

Abstract

"We examine effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment losses across metropolitan area status and population size. Non-metropolitan and metropolitan areas of all sizes experienced significant employment losses, but the impacts are much larger in large metropolitan areas. Employment losses manifest as increased unemployment, labor force withdrawal, and temporary absence from work. We examine the role of individual and local area characteristics in explaining differing employment losses across metropolitan status and size. The local COVID-19 infection rate is a major driver of differences across MSA size. Industry mix and employment density also matter. The pandemic significantly altered urban economic activity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & John Coglianese (2020): Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession. (NBER working paper 27566), 22 S. DOI:10.3386/w27566

Abstract

"We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment. Step 1: estimate individual transition hazards across employment, temporary layoff, permanent layoff, quitter, entrant, and out of the labor force, with each hazard depending on an aggregate component as well as an individual's labor force history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of individual labor force histories. Applying our approach to the July Blue Chip forecast of the COVID-19 recession, we project that 1.6 million workers laid off in April 2020 remain unemployed six months later. Total long-term unemployment rises thereafter and eventually reaches more 4.5 million individuals unemployed for more than 26 weeks and almost 2 million individuals unemployed for more than 46 weeks. Long-term unemployment rises even more in a more pessimistic recovery scenario, but remains below the level in the Great Recession due to a high amount of labor market churn." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber (2020): The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending. (IZA discussion paper 13224), 50 S.

Abstract

"We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth losses due to the corona virus, with the average losses being $5,293 and $33,482 respectively. Aggregate consumer spending dropped by 31 log percentage points with the largest drops in travel and clothing. We find that households living in counties that went into lockdown earlier expect the unemployment rate over the next twelve months to be 13 percentage points higher and continue to expect higher unemployment at horizons of three to five years. They also expect lower future inflation, report higher uncertainty, expect lower mortgage rates for up to 10 years, and have moved out of foreign stocks into liquid forms of savings. The imposition of lockdowns can account for much of the decline in employment in recent months as well as declines in consumer spending. While lockdowns have pronounced effects on local economic conditions and households’ expectations, they have little impact on approval ratings of Congress, the Fed, or the Treasury but lead to declines in the approval of the President." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber (2020): Labor Markets during the COVID-19 Crisis. A Preliminary View. (IZA discussion paper 13139), Bonn, 13 S.

Abstract

"We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic. We document several facts. First, job loss has been significantly larger than implied by new unemployment claims: we estimate 20 million lost jobs by April 8th, far more than jobs lost over the entire Great Recession. Second, many of those losing jobs are not actively looking to find new ones. As a result, we estimate the rise in the unemployment rate over the corresponding period to be surprisingly small, only about 2 percentage points. Third, participation in the labor force has declined by 7 percentage points, an unparalleled fall that dwarfs the three percentage point cumulative decline that occurred from 2008 to 2016. Early retirement almost fully explains the drop in labor force participation both for those survey participants previously employed and those previously looking for work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dalton, Michael, Elizabeth Weber Handwerker & Mark A. Loewenstein (2020): Employment changes by employer size during the COVID-19 pandemic: a look at the Current Employment Statistics survey microdata. In: Monthly labor review, Jg. 143, H. October. DOI:10.21916/mlr.2020.23

Abstract

"We use the Current Employment Statistics survey microdata for the private sector to calculate employment changes since February 2020 by employer size. We find that for employers with 1 to 9 employees, the largest component of employment change since February is closings (either temporary or permanent) in all months. For employers with 10 or more employees, the largest component of employment change since February is within employers that have continued to report nonzero employment to the survey, rather than within those reporting zero employment or from imputed closures from nonrespondents to the survey. In percentage terms, the greatest overall employment losses shifted to larger and larger employers each month from March through July. However, the largest employers recovered employment faster than smaller employers from July to September. By September, the largest cumulative employment losses were for employers with 50 to 499 employees, with employment losses of 6.5 percent since February. Meanwhile, by September, employers with 1 to 9 employees had employment losses of 3.3 percent since February." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Deb, Pragyan, Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry & Nour Tawk (2020): The economic effects of COVID-19 containment measures. In: VOX H. 17.06.2020, o. Sz.

Abstract

"Containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus pandemic entail large short-term economic costs. This column attempts to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and daily indicators of economic activity. Over a 30-day period from implementation, containment measures have, on average, led to a loss of about 15% in industrial production. Macroeconomic policy measures have however mitigated some of these economic costs. Stay-at-home requirements and workplace closures are most effective in curbing both infections and deaths but are also associated with the largest economic costs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Demertzis, Maria, André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra & Guntram B. Wolff (2020): An effective economic response to the coronavirus in Europe. (Bruegel policy contribution 2020,6), Brüssel, 10 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major shock to the global and European economy. Most European countries will need to take bold quarantine and lock-down measures, as has been done in Italy, to prevent an explosion of the epidemic which would lead to many deaths and the collapse of healthcare systems. The economic consequences of such measures are major, and are felt through both supply and demand-side channels. A coordinated and bold response by authorities is necessary. First, ample national funds need to be provided to national health services. Second, targeted measures to support individuals (such as the self-employed), companies and the local communities most affected should be put in place or reinforced. Third, broad macroeconomic insurance needs to be provided because targeted measures will not cover the many second-round effects of the shock. To alleviate financial and cash-flow constraints, and to provide incentives to preserve employment, we recommend all European Union countries agree to halve companies' social security contributions for three months, or cut the payroll tax. Such measures could amount to support of some 2.5 percent of GDP and would be funded by increased national deficits. Last but not least, the European Central Bank should provide abundant liquidity, increase swap lines to ensure sufficient dollar liquidity and increase its sovereign-bond purchase programme to prevent distress in sovereign bond markets. 'Whatever it takes' needs to be the motto to preserve lives and reduce the impact on the economy of the epidemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dey, Matthew & Mark A. Loewenstein (2020): How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID-19 shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn? In: Monthly labor review, Jg. 143, H. April. DOI:10.21916/mlr.2020.6

Abstract

"This article examines the labor market impacts of establishment shutdowns implemented in response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The analysis focuses on sectors directly exposed to the shutdowns and uses data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Occupational Employment Statistics programs of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dingel, Jonathan I. & Brent Neiman (2020): How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home? In: Covid economics H. 1, S. 16-24.

Abstract

"We classify the feasibility of working at home for all occupations. About 34% of US jobs, accounting for 44% of overall wages, can plausibly be performed at home. This share varies considerably across cities and industries. We hope our results are useful for understanding the economic impact of social distancing and formulating policy responses. Our classifications could be easily applied to other countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dullien, Sebastian, Alexander Herzog-Stein, Peter Hohlfeld, Katja Rietzler, Sabine Stephan, Silke Tober, Thomas Theobald & Sebastian Watzka (2020): Wirtschaftspolitische Reaktion mildert Corona-Einbruch: Verhaltene Erholung in Sicht. (IMK Report 160), Düsseldorf, 28 S.

Abstract

"Die Corona-Krise hat die Weltwirtschaft in eine tiefe Rezession gestürzt. Im ersten Halbjahr 2020 ist die globale Wirtschaftsaktivität stark geschrumpft. Im Prognosezeitraum dürfte die weltwirtschaftliche Produktion mit Unterstützung der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik wieder spürbar ausgeweitet werden. Dennoch wird sich die wirtschaftliche Erholung nur allmählich vollziehen. Auch die deutsche Wirtschaft verzeichnete im ersten Halbjahr 2020 einen starken Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP). Die wirtschaftspolitischen Akteure reagierten zügig mit Liquiditätshilfen und Nachfragestimuli und bannten so die Gefahr einer sich selbst verstärkenden Abwärtsbewegung. Unter der Annahme, dass Corona-Ausbrüche lokal begrenzt werden können, ist mit einem Rückgang des BIP um 6,2 % in diesem Jahr und einem Anstieg um 3,8 % im kommenden Jahr zu rechnen. Trotz der Stützungsmaßnahmen macht sich die Corona-Krise auch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt bemerkbar. Die sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung sinkt zwar – wegen einer massiven Nutzung von Kurzarbeit – nur wenig, aber die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen insgesamt nimmt infolge des Rückgangs bei den Selbstständigen und Mini-Jobbern in beiden Jahren ab. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird von 5,0 % im Jahr 2019 auf 6,3 % im Jahr 2021 steigen. Die Inflationsrate bleibt mit 0,5 % und 1,3 % in beiden Jahre" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Dullien, Sebastian, Alexander Herzog-Stein, Peter Hohlfeld, Christoph Paetz, Sabine Stephan, Thomas Theobald, Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka (2020): Virus-Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession. (IMK Report 157), Düsseldorf, 33 S.

Abstract

"Unter der Annahme, dass die umfangreichen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung von Covid-19 ab Mai gelockert werden, ist mit einem Rückgang des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) um 4 % in diesem Jahr zu rechnen. Das BIP dürfte insbesondere im zweiten Quartal 2020 stark einbrechen, aber auch im dritten Quartal noch negativ ausfallen und sich erst im vierten Quartal zaghaft erholen. Der private Konsum wird trotz umfangreicher Stützungsmaßnahmen zwei Quartale lang schrumpfen, dann aber die Erholung tragen. Besonders deutlich sinken die Exporte und die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen, während sich Staatskonsum und Bau durchgängig positiv entwickeln und einen noch stärkeren Wirtschaftseinbruch verhindern. Geprägt von Nachholeffekten dürfte das BIP im Jahresdurchschnitt 2021 um 2,4 % zunehmen. Angesichts eines zeitweilig starken Anstiegs der Kurzarbeit geht die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen in beiden Jahren nur leicht zurück. Die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte von 5,0 % im Jahr 2019 auf 5,5 % im Jahr 2021 steigen. Die Risiken sind hoch und eine verschärfte weltwirtschaftliche Abschwächung kombiniert mit einschränkenden Maßnahmen für weitere zwei Monate würde zu einer mehr als doppelt so starken Wirkung des Schocks auf das deutsche BIP führen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Döhrn, Roland (2020): Auswirkungen der COVID-19 Epidemie auf die chinesische Wirtschaft. Eine erste Abschätzung. (RWI-Materialien 134), Essen, 7 S.

Abstract

"In China nimmt die Zahl der mit dem neuen Coronavirus Infizierten weiter zu. Die chinesische Regierung versucht die Verbreitung der Infektion zu verhindern und hat die am stärksten betroffene Provinz Hubei vom Rest des Landes abgeriegelt. Der Beitrag liefert eine erste Abschätzung der wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Epidemie für China. Sie baut auf den Erfahrungen der SARS Epidemie auf und diskutiert mögliche Wirkungskanäle. Die Schätzung der Wirkungen auf das chinesische Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) setzt an der Zusammensetzung der Wirtschaft nach Wirtschaftszweigen, der wirtschaftlichen Bedeutung der Provinz Hubei und einer Abschätzung der Betroffenheit der Wirtschaftszweige an. Sie ergibt einen dämpfenden Effekt auf die Zunahme des BIP im ersten Quartal 2020 von etwa 4 Prozentpunkten. Rechnet man gegen, dass Auslandsreisen von Chinesen praktisch unterbunden sind, ermäßigt sich der negative Effekt auf etwa 2,5 Prozentpunkte, weil weniger Einkommen ins Ausland abfließt. Der wirtschaftliche Schaden im ersten Quartal würde sich somit auf rund 405 Milliarden Yuan bzw. knapp 54 Milliarden Euro belaufen. Dies ist eine eher vorsichtige Schätzung, die eine Einschränkung der Produktionstätigkeit für etwa einen Monat unterstellt. Mit der Dauer der Beschränkungen könnten die negativen Wirkungen überproportional zunehmen, weil eine zunehmende Zahl von Unternehmen wegen ausbleibender Zulieferungen der Produktion einschränken muss." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Ederer, Stefan (2020): WIFO-Konjunkturszenario: Scharfer, aber im besten Fall kurzer Einbruch der Konjunktur infolge der Coronavirus-Pandemie. Wien, 10 S.

Abstract

"Die Coronavirus-Pandemie belastet derzeit die internationale und österreichische Konjunktur. Im 1. Halbjahr 2020 ist weltweit mit deutlichen Einbußen in der Wirtschaftsleistung zu rechnen. Die Auswirkungen hängen wesentlich davon ab, wie lange und in welchem Ausmaß die Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Virusübertragung in Kraft bleiben. Im gegenwärtigen Umfeld kann daher nur in Szenarien gerechnet werden. Wenn die aktuellen Maßnahmen bis Ende April in Kraft bleiben, im Mai allmählich aufgehoben werden und sich die Lage im Sommer normalisiert, dürfte die österreichische Wirtschaft 2020 um 2,5% schrumpfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Eichenbaum, Martin S., Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt (2020): The Macroeconomics of Epidemics. (NBER working paper 26882), Cambridge, Mass., 28 S. DOI:10.3386/w26882

Abstract

"We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our model implies that people’s decision to cut back on Consumption and work reduces the severity of the epidemic, as measured by total deaths. These decisions exacerbate the size of the recession caused by the epidemic. The competitive equilibrium is not socially optimal because infected people do not fully internalize the effect of their economic decisions on the spread of the virus. In our benchmark scenario, the optimal containment Policy increases the severity of the recession but saves roughly 0.6 million lives in the U.S." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Eichhorst, Werner, Paul Marx, Ulf Rinne, René Böheim, Thomas Leoni, Pierre Cahuc, Tommaso Colussi, Egbert Jongen, Paul Verstraten, Priscila Ferreira, Joao Cerejeira, Miguel Portela, Raul Ramos, Martin Kahanec, Monika Martiskova, Lena Hensvik, Oskar Nordström Skans, Patrick Arni, Rui Costa, Stephen Machin & Susan Houseman (2020): IZA COVID-19 Crisis Response Monitoring: Short-Run Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19, Initial Policy Measures and Beyond. (IZA research report 98), Bonn, 153 S.

Abstract

"The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has a severe impact on societies, economies and labor markets. However, not all countries, socio-economic groups and sectors are equally affected. For example, occupational groups working in sectors where value chains have been disrupted and lockdowns have had direct impacts are affected more heavily, while the slowdown of hiring activities mostly affects young labor market entrants. As a result, there has been a steep increase in unemployment rates in many countries, but not everywhere to the same extent. Part of this difference can be related to the different role and extent of short-time work schemes, which is now being used more widely than during the Great Recession. Some countries have created or expanded these schemes, making coverage less exclusive and benefits more generous, at least temporarily. But short-time work is certainly not a panacea to “flatten the unemployment curve”. Furthermore, next to providing liquidity support to firms, unemployment benefits have been made more generous in many countries. Often, activation principles have also been temporarily reduced. Some countries have increased access to income support to some extent also for non-standard workers, such as temporary agency workers or self-employed workers, on an ad hoc basis. A major change in working conditions is the broad move towards telework arrangements and work from home. Nonetheless, it appears too early to assess the relative success of national strategies to cope with the pandemic and to revitalize the labor market as well as the medium-term fiscal viability of different support measures. Future monitoring will also have to trace policies to cope with the imminent structural changes that might result from the crisis or might be accelerated by the crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Elgin, Ceyhun, Gokce Basbug & Abdullah Yalaman (2020): Economic policy responses to a pandemic. Developing the Covid-19 economic stimulus index. In: Covid economics H. 3, S. 40-53.

Abstract

"In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive review of different economic policy measures adopted by 166 countries as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic and create a large database including fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate measures. Furthermore, using principle component analysis (PCA), we construct a COVID-19 Economic Stimulus Index (CESI) that combines all adopted policy measures. This index standardises economic responses taken by governments and allows us to study cross-country differences in policies. Finally, using simple cross-country OLS regressions we report that the median age of the population, the number of hospital beds per-capita, GDP per-capita, and the number of total cases are all significantly associated with the extent of countries’ economic policy responses." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Espinoza, Ricardo & Laura Reznikova (2020): Who can log in? The importance of skills for the feasibility of teleworking arrangements across OECD countries. (OECD social, employment and migration working papers 242), Paris, 25 S. DOI:10.1787/3f115a10-en

Abstract

"COVID-19 lockdowns have radically changed the working arrangements for millions of workers. But who are the workers best positioned to work from home? Drawing on data from the OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), we show that workers possessing higher levels of skills are significantly more likely to telework in OECD countries. We show that while 30% of workers could telework across the OECD, the likelihood decreases for workers without tertiary education and with lower levels of numeracy and literacy skills. The findings raise important questions with respect to the extent to which the pandemic could exacerbate existing labour market inequalities, and the extent to which these inequalities could further worsen amidst intensified technology adoption in the pandemic’s aftermath." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fana, Marta, Songül Tolan, Sergio Torrejón Pérez, Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Enrique Fernández-Macías (2020): The COVID confinement measures and EU labor markets. (JRC technical report), Brüssel, 29 S. DOI:10.2760/69199

Abstract

"This paper assesses the potential impact of the early 2020 COVID confinement measures on EU labour markets, on the basis of an analysis of the restrictions on economic activity imposed in three EU Member States (Italy, Spain and Germany). Following the legislative measures adopted, we classify all economic sectors into different categories according to the likely impact of the COVID crisis, and compare the share of employment that is likely to be strongly affected in each country. Once this is done, we apply these categories of sectors to recent data on EU employment and estimate the groups of workers that would be more or less affected by the economic lockdown measures. Finally, we use all this information to speculate about possible mid-term developments and broader socio-economic implications of the COVID crisis in Europe." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Charles I. Jones (2020): Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report. BPEA Conference Drafts, September 24, 2020. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity H. Fall, S. 111-146.

Abstract

"This paper combines data on GDP, unemployment, and Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths from COVID-19 to study the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic. We present results from an international perspective using data at the country level as well as results for individual U.S. states and key cities throughout the world. The data from these different levels of geographic aggregation offer a remarkably similar view of the pandemic despite the substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Countries like Korea, Japan, Germany, and Norway and cities such as Tokyo and Seoul have comparatively few deaths and low macroeconomic losses. At the other extreme, New York City, Lombardy, the United Kingdom, and Madrid have many deaths and large macroeconomic losses. There are fewer locations that seem to succeed on one dimension but suffer on the other, but these include California and Sweden and potentially offer useful policy lessons." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Figari, Francesco & Carlo V. Fiorio (2020): Welfare resilience in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 92-119.

Abstract

"This paper analyses the extent to which the Italian welfare system provides monetary compensation for those who lost their earnings due to the lockdown imposed by the government in order to contain the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. In assessing first-order effects of the businesses temporarily shut down and the government’s policy measures on household income, counterfactual scenarios are simulated with EUROMOD, the EU-wide microsimulation model, integrated with information on the workers who the lockdown is more likely to affect. This paper provides timely evidence on the differing degrees of relative and absolute resilience of the household incomes of the individuals affected by the lockdown. These arise from the variations in the protection offered by the tax-benefit system, coupled with personal and household circumstances of the individuals at risk of income loss." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fischer, Georg & Günther Schmid (2020): Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa und den USA unter Covid-19. Besser im Korsett einer Versicherungslogik eingeengt oder den Launen eines Präsidialsystems ausgeliefert? (WZB discussion paper : Emeriti 2020-001), Berlin, 16 S.

Abstract

"Die Auswirkungen der von Covid-19 ausgelösten Wirtschaftskrise auf die Arbeitslosigkeit könnten kaum unterschiedlicher sein als in den USA und Europa. Das gilt auch für die politischen Reaktionen: Während die EU-27 die Arbeitslosigkeit bisher weitgehend durch massiven Einsatz von Kurzarbeit in Schach halten konnte, herrscht in den USA eine Massenarbeitslosigkeit, die an die Große Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929/30 erinnert. Statt mit Kurzarbeit reagierten die USA u.a. mit massiven Sozialtransfers für bestimmte Gruppen von Arbeitslosen, die manche Einkommen kurzfristig sogar besserstellen als bei Beschäftigung. Umgekehrt werden die sozialpolitischen Probleme und die wirtschaftspolitischen Grenzen der Kurzarbeit in der EU deutlicher sichtbar. Es ist also noch nicht ausgemacht, welches dieser beiden Wirtschafts- und Sozialsysteme langfristig den durch die Krise beschleunigten Strukturwandel besser bewältigen wird. Dieser Essay argumentiert, dass der europäische Ansatz eine humanere und effektivere Lösung der Krisenbewältigung verspricht, aber nur, wenn die Mitgliedstaaten und die Europäische Union einen den Strukturwandel unterstützenden Weg aus der Kurzarbeit finden und von einigen Stärken des US-Systems lernen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Frohn, Martin (2020): COVID-19 und Reglementierung von Berufen – gibt es auch Lichtblicke? In: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, Jg. 69, H. 2, S. 140-147. DOI:10.1515/zfwp-2020-2036

Abstract

"The Covid-19 crisis has had a severe impact on society and the economy. Some countries reacted with regulatory relaxations to cope with the crisis and digitisation of services provided possibilities to maintain service activities during the general lockdown measures. It became even more apparent that regulating access to and exercise of professional activities can have negative effects on adaptability of businesses and development of new and innovative business models. The recent adoption of an EU directive on a proportionality test, obliging Member States to carry out a thorough assessment of the effects of regulation before its adoption, provides guidance and a toolbox to ensure monitoring and adaptation of regulatory frameworks in view of developments such as those we have witnessed very recently. Regulatory trends in Member States and in particular in Germany go in opposite directions: While tightening of access requirements in craft professions, the German government considers significant reforms in legal services. In particular as regards the tightening of restrictions, it is expected that the EU directive on a proportionality test will lead to more sound and fact-based regulatory decisions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Fujita, Shigeru, Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay (2020): The labour market policy response to COVID-19 must save aggregate matching capital. In: VOX, o. Sz.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented shock to labour markets. This column argues that the policy response should balance two objectives: (1) facilitating prompt reallocation of employment to essential activities during the emergency, and (2) maintaining workers’ attachment to their previous employers, preserving the aggregate stock of firm-specific human capital, and avoiding persistent mismatch, which would propagate the temporary shock into a prolonged stagnation. The authors make concrete labour market policy proposals and compare them with measures currently being implemented on both sides of the Atlantic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Galasso, Vincenzo (2020): Covid: Not a great equaliser. In: Covid economics H. 19, S. 241-255.

Abstract

"Coronavirus has been portrayed as the “great equalizer”. None seems immune to the virus and to the economic consequences of the lockdown measures imposed to contain its diffusion. We exploit novel data from two real time surveys to study the early impact on the labor market of the lockdown in Italy – one of the two countries, with China, hit hard and early. COVID was not a “great economic equalizer.” Quite on the contrary. Low-educated workers, blue collars and low-income service workers were more likely to have stopped working both threeweek and six-week after the lockdown. Low-educated workers were less likely to work from home. Blue collars worked more from their regular workplace, but not from home. Low-income service workers were instead less likely to work from the regular workplace. For both blue collars and low-income service workers, the monthly labor income dropped already in March. Not surprisingly, they were less in agreement with the public policy measures that required the closing of (non-essential) business and activities. Some positive adjustments took place between the third and the sixth week from the lockdown: the share of idle workers dropped, as the proportion of individuals working at home and from their regular workplace increased. However, these adjustments benefitted mostly highly educated workers and white collars. Overall, low-income individuals faced worse labor market outcomes and suffered higher psychological costs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gallant, Jessica, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo (2020): Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession. BPEA conference drafts, September 24, 2020. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity H. Fall, S. 167-216.

Abstract

"This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the US. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001-2019, and we find that the model-based job finding rates match observed job finding rates during the entire sample period and out-of-sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well-behaved and displays little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, job separation rate, and the recall rate of workers on temporary layo↵ must deteriorate substantially from current levels in the next several months." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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García Herrero, Alicia (2020): The Pandemic Requires a Coordinated Global Economic Response. In: Intereconomics, Jg. 55, H. 2, S. 66-67. DOI:10.1007/s10272-020-0871-7

Abstract

"Global pandemics are costly for many reasons. First and foremost, for their death toll and, more generally, for health and social reasons. The second reason is economic. I will focus on the latter given my field of expertise. The economic impact of a pandemic depends upon the way it is tackled both from a health and an economic perspective. Regarding the former, strategies to deal with pandemics are mainly twofold, with two different economic outcomes. The first, mitigation, focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping the spread of the virus, with the objective of reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk. The second, suppression, aims at reversing the epidemic growth but with the risk of a rebound any time the suppression measures are lifted. The first is bound to last longer but have less intense social and economic consequences. The second should be faster but also carries extreme economic consequences, not only due to vanishing demand but also collapsing supply. The hope, though, is that the economy can recover more quickly as long as there is no pick up in the number of cases. It should be noted that a pandemic tends to have a timeframe of 18 months, until a vaccine becomes available." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Garibaldi, Pietro, Espen R. Moen & Christopher A. Pissarides (2020): Modelling contacts and transitions in the SIR epidemics model. In: Covid economics H. 5, S. 1-20.

Abstract

"Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic economists have turned to the SIR model and its subsequent variants for the study of the pandemic's economic impact. But the SIR model is lacking the optimising behaviour of economic models, in which agents can inuence future transitions with their present actions. We borrow ideas and modelling techniques from the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) search and matching model and show that there is a well-defined solution in line with the original claims of Kermack and McKendrick (1927) but in which incentives play a role in determining the transitions. There are also externalities that justify government intervention in the form of imposing more restrictions on actions outside the home than a decentralised equilibrium would yield." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Philipp Hauber (2020): Coronavirus hält Weltkonjunktur in Atem. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 100, H. 3, S. 223-224. DOI:10.1007/s10273-020-2607-5

Abstract

"Studien zu den wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen von Epidemien rekurrieren zumeist auf die Effekte, die direkt aus einer Reduzierung des Arbeitsangebots durch höheren Krankenstand und durch krankheitsbedingte Todesfälle resultieren. Für die Konjunktur sind aber indirekte Wirkungen, die von Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Epidemie oder Verhaltensänderungen der Konsumenten ausgehen, bislang von größerer Bedeutung." (Textauszug, © Springer-Verlag)

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Giupponi, Giulia & Camille Landais (2020): Building effective short-time work schemes for the COVID-19 crisis. In: VOX H. 01.04.2020, o. Sz.

Abstract

"Short-time work is a subsidy for temporary reductions in the number of hours worked in firms affected by temporary shocks. Evidence suggests that it can have large positive effects on employment and can be more effective than unemployment insurance or universal transfers. This column discusses how the COVID-19 crisis - with its mandated reduction in hours of work and massive liquidity crunch for firms - is a textbook case for the use of short-time work. Taking into account available evidence and the current situation, it proposes guidelines to effectively implement short-term work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Glover, Andrew, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull (2020): Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic. In: Covid economics H. 6, S. 22-64.

Abstract

"Many countries are shutting non-essential sectors of the economy to slow the spread of Covid-19. Older individuals have most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in sectors that are shuttered have the most to lose. In this paper we extend a standard epidemiological model of disease progression to include heterogeneity by age, and multiple sources of disease transmission. We then incorporate the epidemiological block into a multisector economic model in which workers differ by sector (basic and luxury) as well as by health status. We study optimal mitigation policies of a utilitarian government that can redistribute resources across individuals, but where such redistribution is costly. We show that optimal redistribution and mitigation policies interact, and reflect a compromise between the strongly diverging preferred policy paths across the subgroups of the population." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gottlieb, Charles, Jan Grobovšek & Markus Poschke (2020): Working from home across countries. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 71-91.

Abstract

"We study how the share of employment that can work from home changes with country income levels. We document that in urban areas, this share is only about 20% in poor countries, compared to close to 40% in rich ones. This result is driven by the self-employed workers: in poor countries their share of employment is large and their occupational composition not conducive to work from home. At the level of the entire country, the share of employment that can work from home in poor countries compared to rich countries depends on farmers' ability to work from home. This finding is due to the high agricultural employment share in poor countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gregory, Victoria, Guido Menzio & David Wiczer (2020): Pandemic recession: L-shaped or V-shaped? In: Covid economics H. 15, S. 88-109.

Abstract

"We develop and calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market in order to forecast the evolution of the aggregate US labor market during and after the coronavirus pandemic. The model is designed to capture the heterogeneity of the transitions of individual workers across states of unemployment, employment and across different employers. The model is also designed to capture the trade-offs in the choice between temporary and permanent layoffs. Under reasonable parametrizations of the model, the lockdown instituted to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus is shown to have long-lasting negative effects on unemployment. This is so because the lockdown disproportionately disrupts the employment of workers who need years to find stable jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Han, Jeehoon, Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan (2020): Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic. (NBER working paper 27729), Cambridge, MA, 65 S. DOI:10.3386/w27729

Abstract

"This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on the impact of the current pandemic on income and poverty to inform the targeting of resources to those most affected and assess the success of current efforts. We construct new measures of the income distribution and poverty with a lag of only a few weeks using high frequency data from the Basic Monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), which collects income information for a large, representative sample of U.S. families. Because the family income data for this project are rarely used, we validate this timely measure of income by comparing historical estimates that rely on these data to estimates from data on income and consumption that have been used much more broadly. Our results indicate that at the start of the pandemic, government policy effectively countered its effects on incomes, leading poverty to fall and low percentiles of income to rise across a range of demographic groups and geographies. Simulations that rely on the detailed CPS data and that closely match total government payments made show that the entire decline in poverty that we find can be accounted for by the rise in government assistance, including unemployment insurance benefits and the Economic Impact Payments. Our simulations further indicate that of those losing employment the vast majority received unemployment insurance, though this was less true early on in the pandemic and receipt was uneven across the states, with some states not reaching a large share of their out of work residents." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hatayama, Maho, Mariana Viollaz & Hernan Winkler (2020): Jobs' amenability to working from home: Evidence from skills surveys for 53 countries. In: Covid economics H. 19, S. 211-240.

Abstract

"The spread of COVID-19 and implementation of “social distancing” policies around the world have raised the question of how many jobs can be done at home. This paper uses skills surveys from 53 countries at varying levels of economic development to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home. The paper considers jobs’ characteristics and uses internet access at home as an important determinant of working from home. The findings indicate that the amenability of jobs to working from home increases with the level of economic development of the country. This is driven by jobs in poor countries being more intensive in physical/manual tasks, using less information and communications technology, and having poorer internet connectivity at home. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to working from home than the average worker. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. The paper finds that the crisis may exacerbate inequities between and within countries. It also finds that occupations explain less than half of the variability in the working-from-home indexes within countries, which highlights the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to working from home." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hensvik, Lena, Thomas Le Barbanchon & Roland Rathelot (2020): Which Jobs Are Done from Home? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey. (IZA discussion paper 13138), Bonn, 17 S.

Abstract

"Which jobs are more likely to be affected by mobility restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic? This paper uses American Time Use Survey data to measure the share of the work hours that are spent at home for different job categories. We compute and provide home-working shares by occupation (US census classification, SOC and international ISCO classification), and by industry (US census classification, NAICS and international ISIC classification)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Inoue, Hiroyasu & Yasuyuki Todo (2020): The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains. The case of a mega-city lockdown to contain the spread of Covid-19. In: Covid economics H. 2, S. 43-59.

Abstract

"This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of Covid-19. The negative effect of the lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of a shortage of supply and demand. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo when production activities that are not essential to citizens’ survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that when Tokyo is locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan, or 5.3% of its annual GDP. Although the shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in a reduction in the daily production in Japan of 86% in a month." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jordà, Òscar, Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor (2020): Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2020-09), San Francisco, Calif., 14 S. DOI:10.24148/wp2020-09

Abstract

"How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Malte Rieth (2020): Viral Shocks to the World Economy. (DIW-Diskussionspapiere 1861), Berlin, 36 S.

Abstract

"We construct a news-based viral disease index and study the dynamic impact of epidemics on the world economy, using structural vector autoregressions. Epidemic shocks have persistently negative effects, both directly and indirectly, on affected countries and on world output. The shocks lead to a significant fall in global trade, employment, and consumer prices for three quarters, and the losses are permanent. In contrast, retail sales increase. Country studies suggest that the direct effects are four times larger than the indirect effects and that demand-side dominate supply-side contractions. Overall, the findings indicate that expansionary macroeconomic policy is an appropriate crisis response." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kolev, Galina (2020): Die Weltwirtschaft im Covid-19-Stress. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,51), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"Die COVID-19-Pandemie hat die Welt dramatisch verändert. Der Internationale Währungsfonds prognostiziert mit 3 Prozent den stärksten Rückgang der weltwirtschaftlichen Leistung in der Nachkriegsgeschichte. Das Tempo und das Ausmaß der Erholung im Jahr 2021 sind stark davon abhängig, welche wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen die Länder weltweit ergreifen und wann die Pandemie nachlässt. Bei Schwierigkeiten von globalem Charakter ist multilaterale Koordinierung gefragt. Die deutsche Exportwirtschaft wird in 2020 starke Einbußen verbuchen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kolev, Galina & Thomas Obst (2020): Die Abhängigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft von internationalen Lieferketten. (IW-Report / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,16), Köln, 23 S.

Abstract

"Im Jahr 2019 importierten deutsche Unternehmen Vorprodukte im Wert von 606 Milliarden Euro, was gut 55 Prozent der gesamten Warenimporte Deutschlands ausmachte. Zwei Drittel der importierten Vorprodukte kamen aus anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten, weitere 5,3 Prozent bzw. 5,0 Prozent aus den USA und China. Dabei entfallen jeweils knapp 16 Prozent der importierten Vorprodukte auf Teile und Zubehör von Investitionsgütern bzw. von Transportmitteln, weitere 16 Prozent beziehen sich auf primäre und verarbeitete Kraft- und Schmierstoffe. Auf Wertschöpfungsbasis machten importierte Vorleistungen im Jahr 2015 24,5 Prozent der in der inländischen Endnachfrage und 21,0 Prozent der in den deutschen Exporten enthaltenen Wertschöpfung aus. Der ausländische Anteil an der im Inland nachgefragten oder von deutschen Unternehmen exportierten Wertschöpfung ist besonders hoch im Bergbau (84,6 Prozent) und in der Land- und Forstwirtschaft (45,2 Prozent). Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe ist er mit 35,1 Prozent ebenfalls weit überdurchschnittlich. Hier stecken hinter der inländischen Endnachfrage und den deutschen Exporten im Wert von 1000 Euro 38 Euro Wertschöpfung aus China, 30 Euro aus den USA und 18 Euro aus dem Vereinigten Königreich. Weitere 148 Euro kommen aus anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten. Besonders abhängig von importierten Vorleistungen sind die Textilindustrie (63,4 Prozent ausländische Wertschöpfung) und die Elektronik (45,2 Prozent). In der chemischen und pharmazeutischen Industrie kommen 39,3 Prozent der Wertschöpfung aus dem Ausland, in der Automobilindustrie und dem Maschinenbau sind es 29,0 bzw. 28,2 Prozent. Die Corona-Krise hat die Fragilität internationaler Lieferketten offenbart. Industrien sind zunehmend asymmetrisch miteinander vernetzt. Wertschöpfungsketten wurden internationalisiert, um Größenvorteile zu erreichen. Outsourcing, Offshoring und schlanke Produktionslinien, verbunden mit geringen Lagerbeständen, haben die deutsche Wirtschaft anfällig für Unterbrechungen in den Lieferketten und Versorgungsengpässe gemacht. Es handelt sich also um einen Trade-off zwischen niedrigeren Preisen der Vorprodukte und dem erhöhten Risiko, abhängig von den weltweiten Lieferketten zu sein. Eine strukturelle Änderung der Wertschöpfungsketten liegt zuerst in der Hand der Unternehmen, die den Trade-off neu bewerten müssen und negative Externalitäten stärker einbeziehen sollten. Eine Maßnahme könnte die Diversifizierung der Lieferketten betreffen, um die Resilienz gegenüber Produktionsausfällen bei Vorprodukten zu erhöhen. Wirtschaftspolitisch wären staatliche Eingriffe ins Marktgeschehen nur in Bereichen zu prüfen, die für die Grundversorgung der Bevölkerung etwa mit Grundnahrungsmitteln oder Medizinprodukten von höchster Relevanz sind. Ein Gebot der Stunde ist es jedoch, die bereits gestörten Lieferketten nicht durch zusätzliche Handelskonflikte weiter zu beeinträchtigen. Eine krisenmotivierte Restrukturierung von internationalen Wertschöpfungsketten birgt die Gefahr, die Errungenschaften der letzten Jahre rückgängig zu machen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Konle-Seidl, Regina (2020): Kurzarbeit in Europa: Die Rettung in der aktuellen Corona-Krise? (IAB-Forschungsbericht 04/2020 (de)), Nürnberg, 18 S.

Abstract

"In der aktuellen Corona-Krise wird in mehr Ländern als jemals zuvor Kurzarbeit als arbeitsmarktpolitisches Instrument eingesetzt, um Beschäftigung zu sichern und die sozialen Kosten der Krise zu begrenzen. Trotz erheblicher Unterschiede in der institutionellen Ausgestaltung und Logik von Kurzarbeitsregelungen hat der rasche Einsatz und eine hohe Inanspruchnahme von Kurzarbeitergeld eine hohe Priorität in allen europäischen Ländern. Der Beitrag beschreibt die ökonomische Rationalität von Kurzarbeit und ordnet die europäischen Kurzarbeitsprogramme in verschiedene Cluster ein. Er beschreibt wesentliche Veränderungen in der Ausgestaltung seit März 2020 und diskutiert mögliche Wirkungen vor dem Hintergrund empirischer Erkenntnisse aus früheren Krisenzeiten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kozlowski, Julian, Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran (2020): Scarring body and mind: The long-term belief-scarring effects of Covid-19. In: Covid economics H. 8, S. 1-26.

Abstract

"The largest economic cost of the Covid-19 pandemic could arise if it changed behaviour long after the immediate health crisis is resolved. A common explanation for such a longlived effect is the scarring of beliefs. We show how to quantify the extent of such belief changes and determine their impact on future economic outcomes. We find that the longrun effect of the Covid crisis depends crucially on whether bankruptcies and changes in habit make existing capital obsolete. A policy that avoided most permanent separation of workers from capital could generate a much larger benefit than originally thought, that could easily be 180% of annual GDP, in present value." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Krenn, Manfred (2020): Corona-Krise und (Langzeit-)Arbeitslosigkeit: Ein neuer New Deal – Öffentliche Beschäftigungspolitik und die Stärkung sozialer Infrastrukturen. In: WISO, Jg. 43, H. 4, S. 13-29.

Abstract

"Der Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit den aktuellen Herausforderungen von (Langzeit-)Arbeitslosigkeit und neuen Wegen ihrer Bewältigung. Die Corona-Krise hat bestehende Problemlagen dramatisch verschärft, die vorher schon hohe Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit wird sich, so die Prognosen, weiter erhöhen. Der Beitrag argumentiert, dass reine Arbeitsmarktpolitik dieses Problem aufgrund eines schon länger existierenden strukturellen Mangels an verfügbaren Arbeitsplätzen nicht lösen kann. In der gegenwärtigen Arbeitsmarktkrise müssen, so die Schlussfolgerung, neue Wege beschritten werden. Mit einem neuen New Deal, der eine mutige öffentliche Beschäftigungspolitik mit Formen von Beschäftigungsgarantien kombiniert, können neue Arbeitsplätze geschaffen und gleichzeitig soziale Infrastrukturen stabilisiert werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © ISW-Linz)

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Krueger, Dirk, Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie (2020): Macroeconomic dynamics and reallocation in an epidemic. In: Covid Economics H. 5, S. 21-55.

Abstract

"In this paper we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behaviour across sectors of the economy can act as a potent mitigation mechanism during an epidemic or when the economy is re-opened after a temporary lockdown. Extending the theoretical framework proposed by Eichenbaum-Rebelo-Trabandt (2020), we distinguish goods by the degree to which they can be consumed at home rather than in a social (and thus possibly contagious) context. We demonstrate that, within the model the "Swedish solution" of letting the epidemic play out without government intervention and allowing agents to shift their sectoral behavior on their own can lead to a substantial mitigation of the economic and human costs of the Covid-19 crisis, avoiding more than 80% of the decline in output and of number of deaths within one year, compared to a model in which sectors are assumed to be homogeneous. For different parameter configurations that capture the additional social distancing and hygiene activities individuals might engage in voluntarily, we show that infections may decline entirely on their own, simply due to the individually rational reallocation of economic activity: the curve not only just flattens, it gets reversed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lichtenberger, Hanna & Judith Ranftler (2020): Wie die Corona-Krise Kinderarmut verschärft. In: WISO, Jg. 43, H. 4, S. 65-80.

Abstract

"Die Corona-Krise ist keine Gesundheitskrise, sie ist eine multiple Krise mit Auswirkungen auf alle Lebensbereiche. So sind so viele Menschen wie noch nie in Österreich arbeitslos oder erleben Einkommensverluste und soziale Unsicherheit. Die multiple Krise wirkt aber nicht nur auf Erwachsene, sondern auch auf Kinder und Jugendliche. Schon die erste Welle der Covid-19-Infektionen im Frühjahr 2020 hat gezeigt, dass Kinder und Jugendliche mit massiven ökonomischen, aber auch psychosozialen Folgen konfrontiert sind. Weltweit könnten bis zu 86 Millionen zusätzliche Kinder Ende 2020 in Armut leben. Auch in Österreich wiegen die negativen Effekte auf armutsbetroffene Kinder besonders schwer, wie im folgenden Beitrag mit ersten empirischen Erhebungen skizziert wird. Dabei werden nicht nur finanzielle, sondern auch psychosoziale und gesundheitliche Dimensionen von Kinderarmut thematisiert. Der Beitrag schließt mit einem Verweis auf das lückenhaft gewordene Sozialsystem ab, in dem Armut „Zufallsprodukt“ ist, aber in Zeiten der gegenwärtigen Pandemie noch weiter verstärkt wird." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © ISW-Linz)

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Lucchese, Matteo & Mario Pianta (2020): The Coming Coronavirus Crisis: What Can We Learn? In: Intereconomics, Jg. 55, H. 2, S. 98-104. DOI:10.1007/s10272-020-0878-0

Abstract

"The coronavirus pandemic is bringing with it the prospect of severe financial and economic crises. The article investigates its economic consequences in terms of financial instability, economic recession, lower incomes and policy challenges at the national and European levels. What are some of the lessons that can be learned? This article argues that health is a global public good. Public health and welfare systems are crucial alternatives to the market and universal public health is a key element of an egalitarian policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Ludvigson, Sydney C., Sai Ma & Serena Ng (2020): Covid-19 and the macroeconomic effects of costly disasters. In: Covid economics H. 9, S. 1-21.

Abstract

"The outbreak of Covid-19 has significantly disrupted the economy. This paper attempts to quantify the macroeconomic impact of costly and deadly disasters in recent US history, and to translate these estimates into an analysis of the likely impact of Covid-19. A costly disaster series is constructed over the sample 1980:1-2019:12 and the dynamic impact of a one standard deviation (σ) shock on economic activity and on uncertainty is studied using a VAR. However, while past natural disasters are local in nature and come and go quickly, Covid-19 is a global, multi-period event. We therefore study the dynamic responses to a sequence of large shocks. Our baseline calibration represents Covid-19 as a 3-month, 60σ shock. Even in this conservative case, the shock is forecast to lead to a cumulative loss in industrial production of 12.75% and in service sector employment of nearly 17% or 24 million jobs over a period of ten months. For each month that a shock of the same magnitude is prolonged from the base case, cumulative employment losses will increase by another 6%, and macro uncertainty persist for another month." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lund, Susan, Kweilin Ellingrud, Bryan Hancock & James Manyika (2020): Covid-19 and jobs: Monitoring the US impact on people and places. A clearer picture is emerging of the sectors, regions, and demographic groups at risk across the United States. Washington, DC, 10 S.

Abstract

"The spread of coronavirus is leaving a wide swath of economic damage in its wake. Our initial analysis, conducted at the beginning of April, examined the impact at the state, national, and occupational level. We estimated that in the shutdown phase alone, up to 53 million US jobs were vulnerable—a term we use to encompass permanent layoffs, temporary furloughs, or reductions in hours and pay. Since then, demand shocks have been reverberating through all sectors. Now that pandemic-related unemployment claims have been pouring in for several weeks, the losses associated with the initial shutdown are cascading into knock-on effects. While leisure and hospitality accounted for most of the earliest layoffs and furloughs, the share from industries such as retail trade, manufacturing, nonessential healthcare, and professional services has been growing. We estimate that up to 57 million US jobs are now vulnerable, including more and more white-collar positions.. By way of context, some 59 million jobs are at risk in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland, which have a considerably larger population. We find significant overlap between the workers who are vulnerable in the current downturn and those who hold jobs susceptible to automation in the future. In addition to the effects of technology, the crisis itself may create lasting changes in consumer behavior and health protocols. To put vulnerable workers on more promising and sustainable paths, the US response should incorporate a longer-term view about the resulting occupational shifts and the development of skills." (author's abstract) ((en))

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Ma, Chang, John Rogers & Sili Zhou (2020): Global economic and financial effects of 21st century pandemics and epidemics. In: Covid economics H. 5, S. 56-74.

Abstract

"We provide perspective on the possible global economic and financial effects from COVID-19 by examining the handful of similar major health crises in the 21st century. We estimate the effects of these disease shock episodes on GDP growth, fiscal policy, expectations, financial markets, and corporate activity. Simple time-series models of GDP growth indicate that real GDP is 2.6% lower on average across 210 countries in the year of the official declaration of the outbreak and is still 3% below its pre-shock level five years later. The negative effect on GDP is felt less in countries with more aggressive first-year responses in government spending. Consensus forecast data suggests a pessimistic view on real GDP initially that lasts for two months, an effect that is larger for emerging market economies. Stock market responses indicate an immediate negative reaction. Finally, using firm-level data, we find a fall in corporate profitability and employment, and an increase in debt, the last of which is further reflected in higher sovereign CDS spreads." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Malkov, Egor (2020): Nature of work and distribution of risk: Evidence from occupational sorting, skills, and tasks. In: Covid economics H. 34, S. 15-49.

Abstract

"How does the nature of work – teleworkability and contact intensity – shape the distribution of health, labor income, and unemployment risks, created by the COVID-19 pandemic? To answer this question, we consider two contexts. First, we show that the existing spousal natureof- work-based occupational sorting in the United States matters for the distribution of these risks. In particular, we show that it mitigates the risk of catching COVID-19 through intra-household contagion relative to the case of zero sorting. Furthermore, we show that it creates a larger fraction of couples, who are excessively exposed to labor income and unemployment risks, relative to the case of zero sorting. Second, we document that teleworkable occupations require higher education and experience levels as well as greater cognitive, social, character, and computer skills relative to non-teleworkable occupations. This discrepancy affects labor income and unemployment risks by increasing the likelihood of skill mismatch for newly unemployed workers. Our results imply that the current economic downturn may have long-run effects on employment prospects and earnings of workers who had nonteleworkable or high-contact-intensity jobs at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. We discuss the relevant policy implications and associated policy constraints that follow from our findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Matthes, Jürgen & Markus Demary (2020): Hilfsinstrumente gegen die Corona-Krise im Vergleich. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,33), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"Verschiedene europäische Hilfsinstrumente für besonders von der Corona-Krise betroffene Staaten werden aktuell diskutiert. In diesem Beitrag werden mehrere Anforderungskriterien aufgestellt und die Vorschläge daran gemessen. Das Instrument der Corona-Bonds schneidet dabei am besten ab, wenn die deutsche Politik die damit verbundene Vergemeinschaftung akzeptiert. Das sollte Deutschland tun, um mit den besonders betroffenen Staaten umfassende Solidarität zu üben und Europa zusammenzuhalten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Matthes, Jürgen (2020): Rückversicherungsvorschlag geht in die richtige Richtung. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2020,42), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"Die Europäische Kommission hat als Reaktion auf die Corona-Krise eine Rückversicherung für die nationalen Arbeitslosenversicherungen der Mitgliedstaaten vorgeschlagen. Dieser Vorstoß geht weitgehend in die richtige Richtung. Das vorgeschlagene Instrument setzt mit der Unterstützung von Kurzarbeit ökonomisch an einer richtigen Stelle an, ist auf die Krise bezogen, ermöglicht als Ultima Ratio auch Transfers und lässt die EU als Helfer sichtbar werden. Der Regulierungsvorschlag muss allerdings die Kriterien für die Inanspruchnahme klar definieren und vor allem explizit machen, dass SURE nur befristet ist." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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McKibbin, Warwick & Roshen Fernando (2020): The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19. Seven scenarios. (CAMA working paper series 2020,19), Canberra, 43 S.

Abstract

"The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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McKibbin, Warwick & Roshen Fernando (2020): The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19. Seven scenarios. In: Covid economics H. 10, S. 116-156.

Abstract

"The outbreak of Coronavirus named COVID-19 world has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain, which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Michelsen, Claus, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer & Malte Rieth (2020): Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession. In: DIW-Wochenbericht, Jg. 87, H. 24, S. 408-418. DOI:10.18723/diw_wb:2020-24-2

Abstract

"Die Folgen der Corona-Pandemie hinterlassen tiefe Spuren in der Weltwirtschaft. Im ersten Quartal sank die weltweite Produktion im Zuge des globalen Lockdowns um 15,3 Prozent. Da die Eindämmungsmaßnahmen in vielen Ländern vor allem in das zweite Quartal fielen, dürfte der Einbruch im ersten Halbjahr insgesamt noch gewaltiger ausfallen. Aufgrund der vielerorts flächendeckenden Eindämmungsmaßnahmen und massiven Produktions- und Absatzeinschränkungen vom März bis zum Sommer dieses Jahres senkt das DIW Berlin seine Prognose für das Gesamtjahr drastisch von 2,5 Prozent auf –4,9 Prozent. Die erheblichen Produktionsausfälle und der massive Einbruch im Dienstleistungssektor werden voraussichtlich auch im nächsten Jahr nicht kompensiert werden können. Für das Jahr 2021 erwartet das DIW Berlin einen Anstieg der weltweiten Produktion von 5,5 Prozent. Risiken gehen vor allem von weiteren Infektionswellen aus. Auch handelspolitische Eskalationen sind weiterhin nicht auszuschließen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Michelsen, Claus, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer & Malte Rieth (2020): Corona-Pandemie schockiert die Weltwirtschaft: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Frühjahr 2020. In: DIW-Wochenbericht, Jg. 87, H. 12, S. 192-205. DOI:10.18723/diw_wb:2020-12-2

Abstract

"Die fortschreitende Corona-Epidemie schockiert die Weltwirtschaft. In den kommenden Monaten werden viele Länder voraussichtlich deutliche konjunkturelle Einbrüche erleiden. Absperrungen ganzer Regionen führen zu einem Ausfall der Produktion, zu einer Unterbrechung der Lieferketten und zu Konsumeinbußen. Die Weltwirtschaft dürfte in diesem Jahr nur noch um 2,5 Prozent wachsen, nachdem zuvor 3,7 Prozent prognostiziert worden waren. Im kommenden Jahr werden wohl 3,5 Prozent erreicht werden, wenn sich die Lage wieder normalisiert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Midões, Catarina (2020): Who can live without two months of income? In: Covid economics H. 18, S. 157-169.

Abstract

"Looking at 342 million residents in 21 EU countries, we estimate that 99 million individuals live in households which cannot cover for two months of the most basic expenses – food at home, utilities and rent/mortgage on their single main residence - only from their savings in bank accounts. Without privately earned income but with (pre-covid19) pension income and public transfers, 57 million have savings for less than 2 months. Government support in the form of employment protection schemes and beyond is thus fundamental to ensure livelihood during the covid19 shock, yet many individuals would remain vulnerable if ensured 50% of their gross privately earned income. We estimate mortgage and rent suspension can decrease in half the number of individuals at risk. We find there are stark differences between countries and that individuals born outside of the EU are particularly vulnerable. Those dependent on their income will be forced to resume work earlier and take higher health risks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))