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Goller, Daniel, Christian Gschwendt & Stefan C. Wolter (2025): This time it’s different – Generative artificial intelligence and occupational choice. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 95. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102746

Abstract

"We show the causal influence of the launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in the form of ChatGPT on the search behavior of young people for apprenticeship vacancies. To estimate the short- and medium-term effects, we use a variety of methods, including a difference-in-discontinuity approach exploiting the exogenous nature of the unanticipated launch of ChatGPT in 2022. There is a strong short- and medium-term decline in the intensity of searches for vacancies, indicating a notable reduction in the supply of young people actively seeking apprenticeships and suggesting great uncertainty among the affected cohort. Occupations with a high proportion of cognitive tasks and with high demands on language skills were particularly affected by the decline. Interestingly, the revealed preferences in the search behavior of young job seekers contrasted with previous expert assessments on the automation risks of occupations and aligned with the most recent assessments of the AI and language model exposure of occupations – before these new assessments existed. Notably, while the supply decline did not reduce the number of signed apprenticeship contracts, we find evidence of declining applicant quality, particularly for commercial employees, the most widely offered apprenticeship in Switzerland." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))

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Gutfleisch, Tamara & Richard Nennstiel (2025): Bridging the gap: gender-specific preferences in STEM occupations in vocational education and training. In: Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training, Jg. 17. DOI:10.1186/s40461-025-00187-3

Abstract

"Women’s underrepresentation in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) has been widely studied, particularly in the context of general and tertiary education. However, less is known about gendered STEM sorting within vocational education and training (VET), despite VET systems playing a key role in occupational gender segregation. This study investigates gender differences in the likelihood of choosing a STEM occupation in VET using nationally representative data from Switzerland. We examine to what extent commonly studied individual-level mechanisms—such as math achievement, math self-concept, and career values—can explain the gender gap in STEM participation. To assess whether these mechanisms operate similarly across educational pathways and outcome types, we compare students pursuing or intending to pursue VET to those aspiring to an academic degree, and examine three STEM-related outcomes: intended VET occupation, aspirations for a STEM job at age 30, and intentions to pursue a math-intensive job. We find that the gender gap in STEM participation is largest in VET occupations and considerably smaller for the other two outcomes. Moreover, a larger share of the gender gap can be explained regarding occupational aspirations as opposed to VET occupations, and among students aspiring to academic education. These findings suggest that theoretical models of STEM sorting should be adapted to better reflect the specific features of VET and the types of occupations it comprises." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lundberg, Ian, Daniel Molitor & Jennie E. Brand (2025): The Causal Effect of Parent Occupation on Child Occupation: A Multivalued Treatment with Positivity Constraints. In: Sociological methods & research, S. 1-28. DOI:10.1177/00491241251338412

Abstract

"To what degree does parent occupation cause a child’s occupational attainment? We articulate this causal question in the potential outcomes framework. Empirically, we show that adjustment for only two confounding variables substantially reduces the estimated association between parent and child occupation in a U.S. cohort. Methodologically, we highlight complications that arise when the treatment variable (parent occupation) can take many categorical values. A central methodological hurdle is positivity: some occupations (e.g., lawyer) are simply never held by some parents (e.g., those who did not complete college). We show how to overcome this hurdle by reporting summaries within subgroups that focus attention on the causal quantities that can be credibly estimated. Future research should build on the longstanding tradition of descriptive mobility research to answer causal questions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Mann, Anthony, Jonathan Diaz & Sara Zapata Posada (2025): Career readiness in Madrid, Spain. Insights from a survey of young adults (19-26). (OECD education working papers 331), Paris, 230 S. DOI:10.1787/73cdc17d-en

Abstract

"This paper reports the results of a survey of young adults aged 19-26 who were educated in the Community of Madrid, Spain. The study asks users of career guidance systems within secondary education to share perspectives on their usefulness from the vantage point of the labour market participation. The study finds that overwhelmingly respondents who participated in career development activities as teenagers found them to be useful to their post-secondary transitions with many stating that they were very useful. They wished however that they had received more support from their schools, especially with regard to practical activities related to integration into the working world. Analysis finds many strong relationships between participation in career development and the quality of transitions. It is less likely for young adults who engaged more deeply in career development as teenagers to report that they were Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) at the time of the survey and they expressed more positive attitudes about their transitions and the value of the support received from their schools." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Quintana, Rafael, Soojin Park & Suyeon Kang (2025): Causal decomposition analysis in disparities research: investigating the effect of self-efficacy on the gender gap in STEM. In: Quality & quantity, Jg. 59, H. 4, S. 3327-3351. DOI:10.1007/s11135-025-02110-0

Abstract

"The underrepresentation of women in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields has been a subject of extensive research and policy debate. However, there is limited clarity regarding the specific mechanisms that generate these disparities, and which interventions are most effective in reducing the gap. In this study, we use causal decomposition analysis to estimate how the gender gap in STEM participation would change if we were to intervene on women’s self-efficacy beliefs in mathematics. Women tend to underestimate their abilities in math-related fields, which can affect their educational and career choices. The question we ask is to what extent the gender gap in individuals’ enrollment in STEM majors and identification with mathematics would be reduced if self-efficacy in mathematics were set to be equal across gender categories. The results suggest that equalizing this target factor will reduce the observed disparities in math identity by 53%, and in the enrollment of STEM majors by 2.5%. The modest influence of self-efficacy on enrollment disparities suggests that it is not the predominant factor. We discuss the implications of our empirical findings, as well as how causal decomposition analysis can benefit social and behavioral disparities research." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Rolph, Chris, Samuel Williams & David Woolley (2025): A qualitative investigation into opportunity structures and disjuncture in the education-employment transition: ‘it’s scary, innit?’. In: Journal of education and work, Jg. 37, H. 7/8, S. 582-597. DOI:10.1080/13639080.2025.2487425

Abstract

"We present a small-scale qualitative study of the transition from full time education to employment, focusing on young people who are just approaching this phase of their lives. We explore their understanding of this milestone through a series of focus groups. We also interviewed significant professionals working with young people: school teachers, careers leaders, and local employers. From the responses we identify four common themes: hopes and dreams; careers advice; industry links; and work readiness. While these themes were common to all of our participant groups, the articulation and understanding of them differed, such that adult views contribute to social structures that potentially reduce opportunity, reinforcing the sense of disjuncture for young people. Adult respondents underestimated the aspirations of young people and mistook expectations for ambitions. Both employers and those working in schools recognised a need for improved education-industry links, but there was a mutual sense of incapacity to make this happen, and different understandings of what it might mean to be work ready. Systemic failings appear to exacerbate difficulties faced by children whose families might struggle to support them as they navigate the education to employment transition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This report sets out key findings from PISA as they relate to teenage career development. The report shows that across OECD countries, students are now expressing very high levels of career uncertainty and confusion. Job expectations have changed little since 2000 and bear little relationship to actual patterns of labour market demand, including in working areas of high strategic importance. The education plans of students moreover are more strongly shaped by social background than by academic performance. Many students understandably exhibit considerable anxiety about their career preparation. Wider longitudinal research shows that participation in many career development activities is positively associated with better employment outcomes. However, PISA shows that too few students in most countries are engaging in activities which are most strongly related with better transitions. In particular, young people are not getting enough guidance in crucial fields which connect them with employers and people in work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Seufert, Sabine, Mandana York, Patrick Emmenegger & Scherwin Michael Bajka (2025): Zukunft der Arbeit. Geschlechtervergleich in der Berufsorientierung im Zeitalter der Künstlichen Intelligenz. Gender Comparison in Career Orientation in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. In: Zeitschrift für Berufs- und Wirtschaftspädagogik, Jg. 121, H. 1, S. 57-79. DOI:10.25162/zbw-2025-0002

Abstract

"Dieser Beitrag untersucht, wie Jugendliche ihre berufliche Zukunft in einer zunehmend von KI geprägten Welt einschätzen und welche geschlechtsspezifischen Unterschiede bestehen. In einer Online-Umfrage (N = 2144) in der Schweiz bewerteten Jugendliche auf der Sekundarstufe I ihr AI Empowerment. Anhand eines Vignettenexperiments wurde der Einfluss von Augmentationsstrategien auf die Wahrnehmung von IKT-Berufen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Mädchen sich im Umgang mit KI weniger befähigt fühlen als Jungen. Dialogorientierte Augmentationsstrategien könnten dazu beitragen, KI-Berufe für junge Frauen attraktiver zu machen. Bildungseinrichtungen und Unternehmen könnten hier ansetzen und eine zukunftsorientierte Grundhaltung fördern, um Jugendliche für die Zusammenarbeit mit KI zu stärken." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Tanhua, Inkeri (2025): Racialised discourses on migrants and language skills in Finnish vocational education. In: Journal of vocational education and training, S. 1-18. DOI:10.1080/13636820.2025.2543591

Abstract

"This article examines how discourses on migrants, language skills, and the suitability of educational and vocational paths can racialize the students perceived as migrants in Finnish vocational education and training (VET). The study draws on observations and interviews with students and teachers on two differently gender-typed programs, women-dominated dental technology and men-dominated mechanical engineering. In both programmes, most students have moved to Finland and started learning Finnish a few years before entering vocational education. Drawing on critical race theory and critical discourse analysis, the article identifies four discourses that racialize the students perceived as migrants. The discourse on VET as ‘a realistic choice for migrants lacking language skills’ in dental technology and the idealization of ‘hard-working migrants’ in mechanical engineering encourage migrants’ entry to these programs, but simultaneously racialise them. The discourse on ‘sufficient Finnish skills’ in mechanical engineering encourages, while the discourse on ‘high level of language proficiency’ in dental technology discourages migrants’ entry to the profession, and demonstrates that racism can be hidden behind the talk on language skills. Together, these discourses show that the processes of racialisation are mundane in VET and can direct people’s educational and occupational paths." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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de Koning, Bart K., Didier Fouarge & Robert Dur (2025): Correcting Beliefs About Job Opportunities and Wages: A Field Experiment on Education Choices. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17951), Bonn, 72 S.

Abstract

"We run a field experiment in which we provide information to students about job opportunities and hourly wages of occupations they are interested in. The experiment takes place within a widely-used career orientation program in the Netherlands, and involves 28,186 pre-vocational secondary education students in 243 schools over two years. The information improves the accuracy of students' beliefs and leads them to change their preferred occupation to one with better labor market prospects. Administrative data that covers up to four years after the experiment shows that students choose (and remain in) post-secondary education programs with better job opportunities and higher hourly wages as a result of the information treatment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Choi, Koangsung, Francesco Renna & Chung Choe (2024): The impact of field of study on the gender wage gap: evidence from the first job offer out of college. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 56, H. 53, S. 6713-6729. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2023.2276078

Abstract

"Using a sample of recently graduated college students from South Korea, we estimate the effects of the between-majors and within-major gender wage gap. We use a recentered influence function to decompose the wage differential between majors and find that women face a higher rate of return to the field of study. In addition, women tend to select their program of study with the intention of optimizing their earnings potential relative to men. In calculating the within-major gender wage gap, we control for selectivity into a field of study extending the current methodology to a multinomial logit setting. We test our model using a sample of new graduates from South Korea. We consider six college majors. The within-major wage differential ranged from 8.2% for natural science graduates to 17% for social science graduates. After selection is accounted for, the gender wage gap becomes smaller in humanities graduates but increases in natural science and medicine graduates. Decomposing the selection correction term into explained and unexplained factors eliminates discrimination in medicine and points to reverse discrimination in natural science." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Herdman, Paul, Anthony Mann, Alison Burke & Patrick Signoret (2024): Innovation in career pathways across five countries. (OECD education working papers 320), Paris, 87 S. DOI:10.1787/742bcd05-en

Abstract

"Since the Great Financial Crisis (2007–08) many countries have explored how education systems can better prepare students for their working lives in order to reduce youth unemployment and enhance educational engagement and achievement. This paper focuses on Career Pathways, learning programmes delivered in general secondary education that allow students to undertake a deep exploration of a vocational field of interest while keeping their options for the future open. In a first-of-its-kind analysis and building on understanding of historic provision, the study considers innovation in programme development in five predominantly Anglophone countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Scotland and the United States) since 2010. While historically participation in Career Pathways has been strongly associated with better employment outcomes for learners, evaluations have highlighted important challenges to their delivery at scale for the full range of learners. This paper reviews a range of responses to historic challenges based on study visits to five countries and closes with policy recommendations for future enhancement of provision." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Huttunen, Kristiina & Krista Riukula (2024): Parental job loss and children’s career choices. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 90. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102578

Abstract

"We examine how shocks to parents’ careers affect the children’s educational choices and career outcomes. Using Finnish administrative data, we find that a father’s job loss decreases the likelihood of a child choosing the father’s study field. Children of displaced fathers have lower earnings and are more likely to choose study fields with lower predicted earnings; however, we find no effects on the outcomes measured before study choices are made, such as school grades, inactivity and juvenile delinquency. The results suggest that labor market shocks can carry over to the next generation through children’s career choices." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Hägglund, Anna Erika (2024): Same degrees, different outcomes? Fields of study choices and gender wage inequality in Finland and Germany. In: Social science research, Jg. 122. DOI:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2024.103029

Abstract

"Men and women's diverging fields of study choices contribute to the gender wage gap among highly educated workers in several countries, yet systematic cross-national comparisons are rare. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, the German Microcensus, and Statistics Finland this study explores whether fields of study shape the gender wage gap differently in Germany than in Finland; two countries that display strong linkages between education and employment, but differ in the generosity of family policies. The results show that fields of study are an important source of gender wage disparities in both countries. In Germany, associations between characteristics of fields and wages do not seem to differ between the genders. In Finland, the findings suggest that women profit more than men from fields with strong linkages to occupations. Our findings highlight that research analyzing the association between fields of study and gender inequality needs to consider institutional features and gender-specific patterns." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Ost, Ben, Weixiang Pan & Douglas A. Webber (2024): Institution, Major, and Firm-Specific Premia: Evidence from Administrative Data. (Finance and economics discussion series / Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2024-018), Washington, DC, o. Sz. DOI:10.17016/FEDS.2024.018

Abstract

"We examine how a student’s field of Degree and institution attended contribute to the labor market outcomes of young graduates. Administrative panel data that combines student transcripts with matched employer-employee records allow us to provide the first decomposition of premia into individual and firm-specific components. We find that both major and institutional premia are more strongly related to the firm-specific component of wages than the individual-specific component of wages. On average, a student’s major is a more important predictor of future wages than the selectivity of the institution attended, but major premia (and their relative ranking) can differ substantially across institutions, suggesting the importance of program-level data for prospective students and their parents." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Putz, Sabine & René Sturm (Hrsg.) (2024): Berufsorientierung, Berufsberatung und Berufswahl. Eine Projektschau der Abt. Arbeitsmarktforschung und Berufsinformation des AMS Österreich der Jahre 2015 bis 2023. (AMS-Report / Arbeitsmarktservice Österreich 178), Wien, 268 S.

Abstract

"Das AMS Österreich mit seiner Abt. Arbeitsmarktforschung und Berufsinformation (ABI) ist hierzulande mit eine der wichtigsten Institutionen, die sich der flächendeckenden Versorgung der breiten Bevölkerung wie auch der verschiedenen Fachöffentlichkeiten (Lehrkräfte im schulischen Bereich, Bildungs- und BerufsberaterInnen einschließlich der MitarbeiterInnen in den BerufsInfoZentren des AMS, JugendberaterInnen, BildungsmanagerInnen, TrainerInnen in arbeitsmarktpolitischen Maßnahmen wie auch im Gesamtfeld der Erwachsenenbildung, JournalistInnen u.v.m.) mit Berufs- und Arbeitsmarktinformationen widmet und darüber hinaus verschiedene weitere relevante Serviceangebote zur Bildungs- und Berufsorientierung bereitstellt. Der vorliegende AMS report 178 bietet anhand ausgewählter Forschungsprojekte bzw. praxisorientierter Publikationen einen mehrjährigen und repräsentativen Querschnitt dieser Aktivitäten des AMS Österreich." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Wolter, Stefan C. & Thea Zöllner (2024): Are Parents an Obstacle to Gender-Atypical Occupational Choices? (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16955), Bonn, 18 S.

Abstract

"Despite numerous measures intended to enhance gender equality, gender-specific study and career choices remain a persistent concern for policymakers and academics globally. We contribute to the literature on gendered career choices by focusing on explicitly stated parental preferences for their children's occupations, using a large-scale randomized survey experiment with adults (N=5940) in Switzerland. The focus on parents (and hypothetical parents) is motivated by the observation that adolescents consistently mention their parents as the single most important factor influencing their career choices. The surveyed adults are presented with a realistic choice situation, in which their hypothetical daughter or son has been proposed two different training occupations. The pair of occupations presented to the adults is drawn from a random sample of 105 pairs of occupations, and the respondents are not informed about the gender distribution of the two occupations. Results show that adults are gender-neutral when advising a daughter but have a pronounced preference for male-dominated occupations when advising sons. Preferences are almost identical for parents and non-parents and across age cohorts of adults." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This report explores how school-level career guidance systems can more effectively respond to social inequalities. It draws on new analysis of PISA and PIAAC data and builds on the OECD Career Readiness Indicators to review the impact of inequalities related primarily to socio-economic background, gender and migrant status/ethnicity on the character of education-to-work transitions. The data analysis identifies additional barriers facing certain demographic groups in converting human capital into successful employment. It also finds that teenage access to career development is strongly patterned by the demographic characteristics of students. Consequently, the report highlights a range of career guidance interventions that can be expected to mitigate the negative impact of inequalities on student outcomes, enabling fairer access to economic opportunities. The report concludes by reviewing how the innovative new Career Education Framework in New Brunswick (Canada) systematically addresses inequalities within K-12 provision." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Adamuti-Trache, Maria & Yi Leaf Zhang (2023): Uncertainty and change in American youth occupational expectations. In: Journal of education and work, Jg. 36, H. 3, S. 202-219. DOI:10.1080/13639080.2023.2174956

Abstract

"Grounded in Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), this study contributes to empirical efforts to understand factors affecting the career-development process of American youth by focusing on change in occupational expectations between age 16 and 26. The study is based on the secondary analysis of longitudinal data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002. The main result is that occupational expectations decrease over time, and the change is strongly affected by student educational expectations and actual attainment by age 26. The study findings indicate that higher educational attainment leads to stability in occupational expectations and higher prestige scores of the intended occupations. Females are more likely than males to have higher occupational expectations. Academic self-efficacy and self-regulatory behaviours during secondary education lead to higher occupational expectations, as does an understanding of employment barriers. Non-college-bound youth and postsecondary non-completers experience a higher drop in occupational expectations over time which could reveal unrealistic career plans." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Altmejd, Adam (2023): Inheritance of fields of study. (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy 2023,11), Uppsala, 60 S.

Abstract

"University graduates are more than three times as likely to hold a degree in the field that their parent graduated from. To estimate how much of this association is caused by the educational choices of parents, I exploit admission thresholds to university programs in a regression discontinuity design. I study individuals who applied to Swedish universities between 1977 and 1992 and evaluate how their enrollment in different fields of study increases the probability that their children later study the same topic. I find strong causal influence. At the aggregate level, children become 50% more likely to graduate from a field if their parent has previously enrolled in it. The effect is positive for most fields, but varies substantially in size. Technology, engineering, medicine, business exhibit the largest, significant, effects. For these fields, parental enrollment increases child graduation probability with between 2.0 and 12.8 percentage points. I show that the parent’s labor market experience plays an important role in explaining the results, but parental field enrollment does not increase subject-specific skills, nor is it associated with higher returns to earnings. I find little evidence for comparative advantage being the key driver of field inheritance. Rather, parents seem to function as role models, making their own field choice salient. This is indicated by the fact that children become less likely to follow parents with weak labor market prospects, and that children are more likely to follow the parent with the same gender." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))