Zitatform

Bijwaard, Govert E. & Christian Schluter (2026): Interdependent hazards, local interactions and the return decision of recent migrants. In: Spatial Economic Analysis, Jg. 21, H. 2, S. 205-225. DOI:10.1080/17421772.2025.2530498

Abstract

"We propose a new statistical model of spatially interdependent hazards in order to examine whether interactions at the level of the neighborhood are present. To address the endogeneity of location choices, we also implement a weighting scheme that combines insights from inverse propensity score weighting and Bartik-shift-share instrumentation. The good performance of our approach is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo study. In our empirical application a unique large administrative dataset of recent Turkish labor immigrants to The Netherlands is used. We find a positive spatial interaction parameter and show that the local spatial multipliers are substantial." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Falkenhain, Mariella (2026): 'I needed this journey': home visits in wartime as transformative events. In: Journal of Refugee Studies, Jg. 39, H. 2, S. 325-339., 2025-12-23. DOI:10.1093/jrs/feaf088

Abstract

"This article examines how Ukrainian refugees experience wartime home visits. Relying on in-depth, repeated interviews with Ukrainian refugees in Germany, the article explores a state of in-betweenness that characterizes these individuals’ lives shortly after arrival, particularly by disrupting their sense of belonging and capacity to imagine the future. During short-term home visits to Ukraine, the visitors acquire a feel for life in war that is associated with complex feelings of alienation, disillusionment, and futurelessness. This experience helps individuals overcome subjective states of the in-between and move forward in life, irrespective of the persistent structural limbo related to temporary protection. Considering migrant home visits as transformative events advances recent debates about liminality and protracted displacement. It also has important implications for longer-term processes of social inclusion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Oxford University Press) ((en))

Zitatform

Fortunato, Cecilia, Elena Ambrosetti & Andrea Iacobucci (2026): The Evolution of Return Migration Studies: A Systematic Literature Review With Text Mining and Topic Modelling. In: International Migration, Jg. 64, H. 1. DOI:10.1111/imig.70128

Abstract

"The study offers a systematic review of scientific literature on ‘return migration’ performing computational text mining and topic modelling. On a sample of 3000 studies indexed in Scopus and published between 1960 and 2020, we present a textual analysis and a clusters' analysis of titles, keywords, abstracts and publications' metadata. Results show a rapid growth in research since the 1970s, mirroring the evolution of migration events and the pace of theoretical advancements. The research landscape appears dominated by receiving high-income countries' perspective. Throughout the entire period, topics related to culture, ethnicity and political identity have been prominent. A progressive shift in the economic paradigm has been identified, with labour-related keywords leaving room for more subjective aspects of well-being. Growing attention has been paid to different forms of migrants' capital and vulnerabilities, along with a declining interest in demographic implications of return, especially with respect to African and European internal and international migrations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

Zitatform

Kanas, Agnieszka, Frank van Tubergen & Yuliya Kosyakova (2026): Determinants of refugees’ generalised and institutional trust: evidence from Germany. In: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Jg. 52, H. 1, S. 85-104., 2025-05-28. DOI:10.1080/1369183x.2025.2514800

Abstract

"This paper examines the factors shaping refugees’ institutionalized and generalized trust, focusing on three key influences: (1) pre-arrival migration effects, such as experiences of trauma; (2) asylum procedure effects, including the length and outcome of the process and perceptions of fairness; and (3) post-procedure effects, particularly the context of reception. Using data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees in Germany, we find that the conditions of the asylum process and the reception context are critical determinants of refugees’ trust. Specifically, while the length of the asylum process and living in shared accommodations negatively affect institutional trust, these impacts are largely mediated by other refugee-specific experiences, such as perceptions of procedural and interactional justice. Receiving a positive asylum decision directly enhances refugees ’ trust in German institutions and other people, whereas being trapped in existential limbo severely erodes trust levels. Additionally, refugees subject to residency restrictions exhibit lower institutional and generalized trust levels than those without such limitations. These findings highlight the critical role of short and fair asylum procedures and inclusive reception policies in fostering trust among refugees, with significant implications for improving integration outcomes and social cohesion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Julia Reinold, Theresa Koch, Lukas Olbrich, Katia Gallegos Torres & Simon Wagner (2026): International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa): Wer bleibt, wer geht - und warum Eingewanderte Deutschland wieder verlassen. (IAB-Kurzbericht 10/2026), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2610

Abstract

"Wer nach Deutschland einwandert, bleibt nicht zwangsläufig dauerhaft. Angesichts des wachsenden Fachkräftebedarfs ist es arbeitsmarktpolitisch relevant, ob Eingewanderte langfristig in Deutschland bleiben oder wieder ab wandern. In der ersten Welle des International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) gaben rund 3 Prozent der Eingewanderten an, Abwanderungspläne zu haben. Das sind hochgerechnet 312.000 Personen. Die Folgebefragung 2025 macht nun erstmals sichtbar, wer Deutschland tatsächlich verlassen hat, wohin diese Personen gezogen sind, welche Gründe dafür ausschlaggebend waren und welches Wiederzuwanderungspotenzial besteht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Lukas Olbrich & Simon Wagner (2026): Überlegungen und konkrete Pläne von Migrantinnen und Migranten, Deutschland wieder zu verlassen, sind regional sehr unterschiedlich. In: IAB-Forum – Grafik aktuell H. 23.01.2026, 2026-01-20. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.GA.20260123.01

Abstract

"Auswanderungsüberlegungen und konkrete Auswanderungspläne von Migrantinnen und Migranten, die in Deutschland leben, sind regional sehr unterschiedlich. Das zeigen die Ergebnisse der IAB-Online-Befragung „International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany“ (IMPa), die Ende 2024 und Anfang 2025 durchgeführt wurde. Bundesweit gaben rund 26 Prozent der Befragten an, in den letzten 12 Monaten darüber nachgedacht zu haben, Deutschland wieder zu verlassen. Konkrete Auswanderungspläne sind mit insgesamt 3 Prozent weniger häufig zu beobachten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Julia Reinold, Theresa Koch, Lukas Olbrich, Katia Gallegos Torres & Simon Wagner (2026): International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa): Who stays, who moves on - and why immigrants leave Germany. (IAB-Kurzbericht 10/2026 (en)), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2610.en

Abstract

"Wer nach Deutschland einwandert, bleibt nicht zwangsläufig dauerhaft. Angesichts des wachsenden Fachkräftebedarfs ist es arbeitsmarktpolitisch relevant, ob Eingewanderte langfristig in Deutschland bleiben oder wieder ab wandern. In der ersten Welle des International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) gaben rund 3 Prozent der Eingewanderten an, Abwanderungspläne zu haben. Das sind hochgerechnet 312.000 Personen. Die Folgebefragung 2025 macht nun erstmals sichtbar, wer Deutschland tatsächlich verlassen hat, wohin diese Personen gezogen sind, welche Gründe dafür ausschlaggebend waren und welches Wiederzuwanderungspotenzial besteht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Recchi, Ettore, Luca Bernasconi & Alejandra Rodriguez Sanchez (2026): Short‐Term Visa, Long‐Term Stay? Estimating Inflows of Overstayers in the Schengen Area Using Air Passenger Records and Facebook Mobility Data. In: International Migration, Jg. 64, H. 1. DOI:10.1111/imig.70123

Abstract

"Overstayers—travellers entering a country with a valid visa but staying beyond the initially authorised period—are a blind spot of migration research. Past studies claim that overstaying is indeed the main gateway to irregular migration in Europe, but few estimates exist. This paper explores three new methods to estimate the inflows of overstayers. We concentrate on the Schengen area as destination, given its relevance in global migration flows, and on non-European countries as origins, since for travellers from these countries commercial flights are the most likely transportation mode to Europe. Our methods rely on aggregate information on incoming and departing passengers from all airports in the Schengen Area, and on Facebook users' mobility data. In the first method, we compute ‘net air travel flows’ as the difference between incoming and outgoingpassengers; we then deduce net regular migration (using data from Eurostat and the QuantMig project) from ‘net air travel flows’ to obtain ‘unaccounted net flows’, which we hold to equate approximately to newly incoming overstayers with short-stay visas for 2019. In the second method, building on the first estimate, we employ the logic of gravity models to project estimates for later years. In the third method, we build on the intuitions of the first method but use net migration figures from data on Facebook users' cross-border movements. Substantively, the results of the different methods converge, indicating around 450,000 new overstayers who entered the whole of the Schengen Area in 2019 with short-stay visas. Analyses for the following years obtained with the second and third method match and are in line with changes in travel policies during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020 and 2021), suggesting a significant reduction in the number of overstayers for those years and an uptick for the years 2022–2023. By uncovering the size and scope of the overstaying population we shed light on a highly contested issue in the public debate and ultimately contribute to raise awareness on the constructed nature of the ‘regular’ versus ‘irregular’ framing of migration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Reinold, Julia, Laura Goßner & Jasmin Hallyburton (2026): Wenn Bürokratie zur Hürde wird: Wie Eingewanderte die administrativen Verfahren in Deutschland bewerten. In: IAB-Forum H. 02.07.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260702.01

Abstract

"Die Beantragung einer Aufenthaltserlaubnis, die Anerkennung von Ausbildungs- und Hochschulabschlüssen, der Erwerb der deutschen Staatsbürgerschaft: Eingewanderte sind hierzulande mit teils sehr langwierigen bürokratischen Prozessen konfrontiert. Aktuellen Befragungsergebnissen des IAB zufolge machen viele dabei negative Erfahrungen unterschiedlichster Art. Fast ein Drittel derjenigen, die Deutschland wieder verlassen, begründet dies auch mit diesen Erfahrungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Reinold, Julia, Laura Goßner & Jasmin Hallyburton (2026): When bureaucracy becomes a barrier: What migrants think about Germany’s administrative processes. In: IAB-Forum H. 02.07.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260702.02

Abstract

"Die Beantragung einer Aufenthaltserlaubnis, die Anerkennung von Ausbildungs- und Hochschulabschlüssen, der Erwerb der deutschen Staatsbürgerschaft: Eingewanderte sind hierzulande mit teils sehr langwierigen bürokratischen Prozessen konfrontiert. Aktuellen Befragungsergebnissen des IAB zufolge machen viele dabei negative Erfahrungen unterschiedlichster Art. Fast ein Drittel derjenigen, die Deutschland wieder verlassen, begründet dies auch mit diesen Erfahrungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Reiß, Lea Giulia (2026): Who gets to return? Party politics and the selectivity of European emigrant return policies. In: Migration Studies, Jg. 14, H. 1. DOI:10.1093/migration/mnaf061

Abstract

"Why do European governments encourage the return of some emigrants but not others? Across the EU, emigrant return policies tend to be highly selective, prioritizing specific emigrants, such as young people, skilled professionals, or entrepreneurs. Drawing on an original dataset of eighty-one national-level emigrant return policies adopted by seventeen EU member states (2004–23), alongside in-depth case studies of Ireland and Portugal, this study investigates how and why governments prioritize certain emigrants for return. The study argues that governments’ ideological outlook, core constituencies, and their strategic positioning in electoral competition play a central role in shaping the design and targeting of policies. The analysis reveals that the party family of the strongest governing party, rather than the government ’s position on the left–right spectrum, determines the primary target group of return policies. Social democrats tend to favour workers, liberals prioritize highly skilled professionals and entrepreneurs, while conservatives, Christian democrats, and far-right parties more frequently target families. The case studies further reveal that electoral incentives and timing shape policy targeting, especially in the run-up to national elections. The article contributes to research on migration governance and party politics, highlighting how migration promotion policies, such as emigrant return policies, are not neutral responses to current demographic and economic needs but serve as strategic tools in political competition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Silva, Bárbara G., Nicholas C. Andriese & James G. Combs (2026): Return Migrant Entrepreneurship: A Systematic Review and Future Research Agenda. In: Entrepreneurship theory and practice, Jg. 50, H. 1, S. 115-149. DOI:10.1177/10422587251322402

Abstract

"Why do migrants return home and start businesses? Research on this multistage phenomenon—that is, return followed by entrepreneurship—is fragmented, reflecting different scholarly approaches and reasons migrants return and start businesses (or not). We systematically review 80 papers addressing aspects of returnee entrepreneurship and organize findings into a two-stage process model grounded in three levels of analysis—institutional, social, and individual. Our model contributes by providing a parsimonious way to understand returnee entrepreneurship and describe what has been learned. We also contribute a research agenda to help entrepreneurship scholars leverage what is known about entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial processes to address critical unanswered questions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2026): Migrationsbericht der Bundesregierung 2024. (Migrationsbericht der Bundesregierung 2024), Berlin, 380 S. DOI:10.48570/bamf.fz.mb.2024.d.2026.migrationsbericht.1.0

Abstract

"Der vom BAMF-Forschungszentrum erstellte Migrationsbericht 2024 wurde am 4. Februar 2026 durch das Bundeskabinett beschlossen. Neben umfassenden Wanderungsdaten zu Deutschland enthält der Bericht einen europäischen Vergleich zum Migrationsgeschehen und zur Asylzuwanderung. Er behandelt das Phänomen der irregulären Migration und informiert über die Struktur und Entwicklung der Bevölkerung mit Einwanderungsgeschichte in Deutschland." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Adunts, Davit, Ahmet Coskun, Andreas Hauptmann, Maria Theresa Koch & Yuliya Kosyakova (2025): Polnische Arbeitskräfte in Deutschland. (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung. Aktuelle Daten und Indikatoren), Nürnberg, 19 S.

Abstract

"Polnische Staatsangehörige bilden mit einem Anteil von 6,6 Prozent der ausländischen Bevölkerung im erwerbsfähigen Alter eine der größten Staatsangehörigkeitsgruppen in Deutschland (hinter Staatsangehörigen aus der Türkei, der Ukraine und Rumänien). Im Jahr 2024 war die Nettozuwanderung von polnischen Staatsangehörigen jedoch erstmals seit Einführung der Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit rückläufig. Die Arbeitsmarktintegration von polnischen Staatsangehörigen ist gemessen an gängigen Indikatoren insgesamt positiv zu bewerten: Die Beschäftigungsquote lag im Dezember 2024 bei 62,0 Prozent und ist damit höher als in der ausländischen Bevölkerung insgesamt (55,1 %); die Arbeitslosenquote lag bei 7,6 Prozent – im Vergleich zu 14,8 Prozent für die ausländische Bevölkerung insgesamt. Der Anteil der erwerbsfähigen Leistungsberechtigten lag im Dezember 2024 mit 5,8 Prozent deutlich niedriger als bei den ausländischen Staatsangehörigen insgesamt (17,3 %). Unter den sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten sind polnische Staatsangehörige hauptsächlich im Fachkraftbereich vertreten (50,2 %), 40,4 Prozent sind im Helferbereich beschäftigt, 9,3 Prozent im Spezialisten- bzw. Expertenbereich. Sie arbeiten überdurchschnittlich häufig im verarbeitenden Gewerbe, in Verkehr und Lagerei, im Baugewerbe sowie der Arbeitnehmerüberlassung. Über 50 Prozent arbeiten in einer dieser vier Branchen. Zudem sind sie überdurchschnittlich in Engpassberufen beschäftigt. Deutschlands Attraktivität als Zielland für Personen in Polen im Alter von 18 bis 34 Jahren nahm in den letzten Jahren ab. Während Deutschland zwischen 2009 und 2013 noch das am häufigsten genannte Zielland war (23 %), sank der Anteil bis 2024 auf 9 Prozent. Überdies geben immer mehr Personen aus Polen mit tertiärem Bildungsabschluss an, nicht auswandern, sondern in Polen bleiben zu wollen. 52,2 Prozent der polnischen Eingewanderten in Deutschland geben an, dauerhaft in Deutschland bleiben zu wollen, 14,5 Prozent planen nur einen temporären Aufenthalt und 33,3 Prozent sind noch unentschlossen. 30,7 Prozent haben im vergangenen Jahr über eine Ausreise nachgedacht; rund 4,1 Prozent hegen bereits konkrete Abwanderungspläne – von letzteren wollen 68 Prozent nach Polen heimkehren, gefolgt von 9 Prozent, die in die Schweiz auswandern möchten. Dabei haben insbesondere Jüngere unter 35 Jahren die Absicht, Deutschland wieder zu verlassen. Als Motive für Auswanderungsüberlegungen oder konkrete Pläne, Deutschland wieder zu verlassen, geben Polinnen und Polen vor allem strukturelle Gründe an: die allgemeine wirtschaftliche Lage (57,7 %), die politische Lage (56,0 %), hohe Steuern (45,9 %), aufwändige Bürokratie (38,0 %) sowie persönliche Vorlieben (29,6 %). Als Gründe dafür, dass polnische Eingewanderte, die Deutschland wieder verlassen möchten, ein bestimmtes Zielland präferieren (sei es Polen oder ein anderes Land) wurden genannt: persönliche Vorlieben (45,5 %), vorhandene Sprachkenntnisse (44,4 %), wirtschaftliche Lage in dem Zielland (42,4 %), gefolgt von eigenen beruflichen Gründen (40,4 %) und Freunden / Bekannten, die dort leben (40,1 %). 15,4 Prozent der Polinnen und Polen geben an, nach einer Rückkehr oder einer Weiterwanderung in ein drittes Land, eine erneute Rückkehr nach Deutschland in Betracht zu ziehen, während 38,9 Prozent dies verneinen. Ein Großteil ist noch unentschlossen (45,7 %)." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Bassetto, Jacopo & Teresa Freitas Monteiro (2025): Immigrants Return Intentions and Labor Market Behavior When the Home Country is Unsafe. In: Journal of labor economics, S. 1-52. DOI:10.1086/739054

Abstract

"This paper investigates whether shocks to safety conditions in the home country affect immigrants’ return intentions and labor market behavior. For identification, we exploit the quasi-random occurrence of violent events in the home-country relative to the timing of interviews and job separations in Germany. We show that immigrants interviewed after a violent event in their home-country are more likely to wish to remain in Germany permanently. If immigrants enter unemployment following a violent event in their home-country, they increase their job search effort and find employment faster, at the cost of accepting lower wages and working in less productive firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bruzelius, Cecilia & Lea Reiß (2025): Please come back! How and why European governments try to reattract emigrated citizens. In: Comparative Migration Studies, Jg. 13, H. 1. DOI:10.1186/s40878-025-00421-7

Abstract

"Many EU Member States have adopted emigrant return policies (ERPs) meant to encourage and assist emigrated citizens’ migration back to their country of origin. Despite the significance of this trend, there is a notable lack of comparative research on the nature of ERPs and explanations for their introduction. This article offers a comprehensive analysis of ERPs across all EU countries that have introduced such policies in the past two decades (2004–2023) – including 17 countries and 81 policies. We examine policy instruments, target groups, policy justifications, and the political contexts associated with the introduction of ERPs. Our analysis reveals that ERPs are largely symbolic in substance – although the use of more costlyeconomic tools increased towards the end of the analysed period –, primarily targeting the young and highly skilled, and justified predominantly in relation to the economy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that ERPs are often introduced for political reasons: while many of these policies are likely to be ineffective in shaping migration, they have been adopted in contexts where emigration and/or related issues were salient to showcase action on a highly complex policy issue. The study covers new empirical ground regarding how and why EU Member States govern migration within a free movement space and the understudied politics of emigration and return." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Erlinghagen, Marcel & Lisa Mansfeld (2025): Aus- und Rückwanderung deutscher Arbeitskräfte. Droht eine Verschärfung des Fachkräftemangels? In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 78, H. 4, S. 304-311. DOI:10.5771/0342-300x-2025-4-304

Abstract

"Auf Basis der Daten der German Emigration and Remigration Panel Study (GERPS) untersucht der Beitrag Ausmaß und Folgen der internationalen Migration deutscher Arbeitskräfte. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass es kaum zu dauerhaften Verlusten kommt, sondern die Abwanderung deutscher Fachkräfte ins Ausland vielfach ein temporäres Phänomen ist. Die allermeisten Ausgewanderten kommen nach einigen Jahren zurück. Diese zirkuläre Migration geht häufig einher mit verbesserten Arbeitsbedingungen (Lohn, Aufstiegschancen, Autonomie) im Ausland ebenso wie nach der Rückkehr nach Deutschland. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass die Rückgewanderten neues Wissen und neue Fertigkeiten mit nach Deutschland bringen, wovon auch und gerade Unternehmen profitieren sollten. Allerdings kommt es insgesamt zu einem Nettoverlust von Arbeitskräften, der sich für einzelne Berufsgruppen unterschiedlich darstellt. Gleichwohl ist gemessen am Gesamtvolumen der Berufsgruppen dieser Verlust von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Hier gilt es, in Zukunft stärker die Abwanderung ausländischer Fachkräfte in den Blick der Forschung und des politischen Interesses zu rücken, die quantitativ wesentlich bedeutsamer sein dürfte." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Hammer, Luisa, Kamal Kassam, Yuliya Kosyakova, Katia Gallegos Torres, Lukas Olbrich, Theresa Koch & Simon Wagner (2025): The Downfall of Assad: Syrian Refugees’ Settlement Intentions after the Unexpected Regime Change. (IAB-Discussion Paper 09/2025), Nürnberg, 31 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.DP.2509

Abstract

"Am 8. Dezember 2024 veränderte der plötzliche Zusammenbruch des Regimes von Bashar al‑Assad die politische Landschaft Syriens und die Rückkehraussichten für Millionen von im Ausland lebenden Syrern abrupt. Wir nutzen diesen unerwarteten Regimewechsel als natürliches Experiment, um die kausalen Auswirkungen der Entwicklungen im Heimatland auf die Ansiedlungs‑und Rückkehrabsichten von Flüchtlingen zu schätzen. Auf der Grundlage neuartiger Umfragedaten aus Deutschland, die nur wenige Tage vor dem Sturz Assads erhoben wurden, stellen wir fest, dass der Zusammenbruch des Regimes die Ansiedlungsabsichten der Syrer in Deutschland erheblich beeinflusste. Befragte, die danach befragt wurden, äußerten eher temporäre Niederlassungsabsichten, gaben eher an, Auswanderungsüberlegungen zu haben, und äußerten eher Unsicherheit über ihre Zukunft in Deutschland. Wir finden jedoch keine Auswirkungen auf konkrete kurzfristige Auswanderungspläne, was darauf hindeutet, dass die erhöhten Rückkehrwünsche eher zukunftsorientierte Absichten als unmittelbare Verhaltensänderungen widerspiegeln. Weitere Analysen zeigen, dass Rechtssicherheit in Deutschland und eine schwächere soziale oder emotionale Integration mit einer stärkeren Präferenz für einen vorübergehenden Aufenthalt korrelieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Lukas Olbrich, Katia Gallegos Torres, Luisa Hammer, Theresa Koch & Simon Wagner (2025): Germany as a stopover? Insights into return and International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa). (IAB-Forschungsbericht 15/2025 (en)), Nürnberg, 92 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2515en

Abstract

"Temporary migration of people who have immigrated to Germany is a frequently observed phenomenon, and the trend is rising. Between 2014 and 2023, the average emigration rate among foreign nationals ranged from 6 to 11 percent, depending on the data source. At the same time, Germany requires a net annual immigration of around 400,000 people to stabilize its labor force potential. The high mobility propensity among immigrants can challenge this goal - with far-reaching consequences for securing skilled labor, integration, and the long-term viability of the welfare state. To gain robust insights into the causes, patterns, and effects of mobility, the International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) has been established as a new longitudinal online survey. It includes first-time surveys every two years, complemented by annual follow-up surveys over a four-year period. In the first wave (December 2024 to April 2025), around 50,000 immigrants participated. The first follow-up survey is scheduled for the second half of 2025. Using statistical weighting procedures, the data allow for representative statements about individuals in Germany who immigrated by April 2, 2024, are registered in the data of the Federal Employment Agency (e.g. via employment, benefit receipt, or participation in labor market programs), and are in working age (18 to 65 years). Key findings from the first wave indicate: A narrow majority of immigrants (57 percent, roughly 5.7 million people) plan to stay in Germany permanently. Around 1.2 million (12 percent) aim for a temporary stay, and roughly 3 million (30 percent) remain uncertain. About 2.6 million people (26 percent) reported having considered leaving Germany in the last 12 months; approximately 300,000 (3 percent) already have concrete emigration plans - split roughly equally between return migration and onward migration. Given Germany's structural need for skilled labor, the political priority in migration policy is shifting: not only immigration, but also the long-term retention of immigrants is becoming a key challenge. The data reveal that emigration intentions vary widely. Those intending to return primarily target European countries such as Poland or Romania but also Turkey, while onward migrants tend to prefer Switzerland, the United States, or Spain. Motivations also differ: family reasons dominate returns to the country of origin, while economic opportunities play a key role in onward migration. Main reasons for emigration considerations include political dissatisfaction, personal preferences, tax burdens, and bureaucracy. These motives are present among labor migrants, education- and family-based migrants alike; refugees also frequently cite discrimination as a major reason. Overall, the findings suggest that state measures such as reducing bureaucracy, simplifying administrative procedures, and offering tax incentives could help lower emigration intentions. Regarding sociodemographic and migration-specific factors, the IMPa results highlight their central role in shaping emigration intentions. Men report higher rates of temporary stay intentions, emigration considerations, and concrete migration plans than women. Region of origin and reason for migration significantly influence mobility patterns: refugees and individuals with family reunification backgrounds express considerably lower emigration tendencies, while migrants from EU countries and those who came for work or education show higher mobility. Furthermore, immigrants with permanent residence status or EU/German citizenship are more likely to consider leaving - probably due to broader legal mobility options. The IMPa results highlight that labor market factors and economic integration also play a critical but nuanced role in shaping emigration intentions. Education emerges as a key predictor: highly educated individuals more frequently express thoughts of leaving or make concrete plans than those with lower educational levels. Qualifications obtained in Germany or third countries - as well as foreign qualifications recognized in Germany - are more strongly associated with emigration considerations, likely due to their higher international transferability. Employed individuals are more likely to report temporary stay intentions than those who are not employed or are in training. Sectors where the outmigration risk among immigrants is particularly high-such as IT and technical services-are also those facing significant skilled labor shortages. Furthermore, it is notable that in other sectors vulnerable to labor shortages-such as healthcare, construction, public administration, or retail-, emigration tendencies are not above average, but they are still relevant. Higher incomes are also associated with stronger emigration considerations and plans, which indicates that migrants who are particularly well integrated into the labor market want to leave Germany again. Another important factor is job satisfaction: the less satisfied individuals are with their work, the more frequently they express temporary intentions to stay, thoughts of emigration, and concrete emigration plans. Job satisfaction thus acts as a stabilizing factor. Language skills show differentiated effects: while descriptive findings suggest that individuals with poor German skills have lower intentions to stay permanently and higher mobility plans, multivariate analyses indicate that good German skills are associated with increased mobility. Good English skills also tend to increase emigration intentions, likely due to better international labor market options. Social integration and societal participation are also crucial: family ties in Germany and regular contact with German nationals have a stabilizing effect. A strong emotional attachment to Germany stabilizes the intention to stay, whereas a strong connection to the country of origin increases the likelihood of emigration. A strong subjective sense of welcome and low perceptions of discrimination significantly reduce the probability of emigration considerations and plans. Conversely, perceptions of discrimination - especially in interactions with authorities, police, and at the workplace - greatly increases emigration tendencies. Political dissatisfaction also significantly raises the likelihood of emigration-related thoughts and plans. In summary, emigration intentions do not arise randomly but are the result of a complex interplay of individual characteristics, social integration, economic anchoring, and perceived societal acceptance. One of the central findings of the IMPa survey is that those who came to Germany for work or education, better educated, more economically successful, and more linguistically integrated are the ones most likely to consider leaving or already have concrete plans to do so. In other words: those most urgently needed to secure Germany's future labor supply are also those most inclined to leave. This selective mobility endangers the country's long-term ability to retain skilled labor. It is therefore essential to offer this group a meaningful perspective and to position Germany not only as a place of immigration but as a country in which people want to stay and build their future. This includes faster and more transparent recognition of qualifications, a determined reduction of bureaucratic hurdles, family-friendly integration policies, and targeted measures against everyday and workplace discrimination. Only when immigrants feel like fully included members of society - with real opportunities for participation and professional advancement - are they likely to choose Germany as their long-term home and pursue both personal and professional goals here. So far, only about one fifth of those with emigration plans have taken concrete steps towards leaving. At the same time, roughly one fifth express a long-term wish to return to Germany, one third rule it out, and about half remain undecided. This means that around two thirds of those considering emigration are potentially open to returning in the future. Activating and supporting this return potential could become a valuable component of Germany's strategic labor policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya & Enzo Weber (2025): Bleiben oder gehen? Das Demografieproblem lässt sich nicht allein durch die Zuwanderung von Fachkräften lösen. Wir müssen auch deren Abwanderung verringern. Denkfabrik. In: Wirtschaftswoche H. 3, S. 38.

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Kosyakova, Yuliya & Lukas Olbrich (2025): Bleiben oder gehen? Der Aufenthaltsstatus von Zugewanderten prägt Abwanderungsabsichten. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 105, H. 9, S. 632-637., 2025-09-02. DOI:10.2478/wd-2025-0163

Abstract

"Deutschland ist auf qualifizierte Zuwanderung angewiesen – doch viele Eingewanderte denken über eine Ausreise nach. Neue Panel-Daten zeigen: Rund ein Viertel der Zugewanderten äußert Abwanderungsüberlegungen, insbesondere besser integrierte Personen mit guten Deutschkenntnissen, hoher Bildung und Erwerbsbeteiligung. Der rechtliche Aufenthaltsstatus spielt dabei eine zentrale Rolle: Ein unbefristeter Status bietet zwar Sicherheit, erhöht aber auch die Mobilitätsoptionen. Besonders häufig geben EU-Bürger:innen sowie Eingebürgerte Auswanderungsabsichten an. Schutzsuchende hingegen äußern seltener solche Pläne – zugleich nennen gerade sie Bürokratie als zentrales Abwanderungsmotiv. Die Ergebnisse zeigen: Deutschland muss sich nicht nur als Einwanderungs-, sondern auch als Bleibeland positionieren – durch weniger Bürokratie, bessere Anerkennungsverfahren, gezielte Integrationsangebote und ein offenes gesellschaftliches Klima." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Liu, Yang Vincent, Sanja Kutnjak Ivković & Valentina Pavlović Vinogradac (2025): Push and pull factors in return migration intentions among first‐generation Croatian migrants in Germany and Ireland. In: International Migration, Jg. 63, H. 3. DOI:10.1111/imig.13353

Abstract

"Why are some migrants more willing to move back to their homeland than others? Using a mixed methods approach, this article sheds light on the factors contributing to the desire for return migration among first-generation Croatian migrants (N = 499). In particular, the current study focuses on the role that migrants' trust in state institutions in both their homeland and current countries of residence plays in their desire to return to the homeland. Quantitative analyses reveal that factors of institutional trust strongly correlate with migrants' willingness to return to Croatia, as do short-term visits and (dis)satisfaction with their current lives, particularly for those who left Croatia for personal reasons instead of institutional ones. The qualitative results suggest that the pull factors of return migration tend to be personal, while the push factors are largely institutional. In addition, the idea of a “future” for both the returnees (e.g. financial stability) and the country (e.g. political conditions) is the key to migrants' decision-making about returning." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Reinold, Julia & Melissa Siegel (2025): First Impressions Matter: Feeling Welcome and Onward Migration Intentions of Highly Skilled Migrants. In: Journal of International Migration and Integration, Jg. 26, H. 1, S. 543-571. DOI:10.1007/s12134-024-01191-4

Abstract

"In the context of the global competition for highly skilled migrants, policy makers follow different approaches to attract and retain this highly sought-after group. One common assumption is that the establishment of a welcoming culture can facilitate the retention of highly skilled migrants. Relatively little is known, however, about the impact such policies can have on highly skilled migrants’ decisions to remain in the destination country. We address this gap by analysing the association between feeling welcome and highly skilled migrants ’ spatial intentions. We use a mixed methods approach that combines asurvey conducted among highly skilled migrants in the Euregio Meuse-Rhine (n = 410) and two rounds of semi-structured interviews (wave 1: n = 67; wave 2: n = 49). Our results suggest that respondents who feel welcome are more likely to have the intention to stay in the region permanently. This association is stronger for migrants with relatively more agency. The paper underlines the importance of early experiences in the host country and the role of subjective and intangible factors like feeling welcome in migration decision-making." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

Zitatform

Amanzadeh, Naser, Amir Kermani & Timothy McQuade (2024): Return Migration and Human Capital Flows. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 32352), Cambridge, Mass, 75 S.

Abstract

"We bring to bear a novel dataset covering the employment history of about 450 million individuals from 180 countries to study return migration and the impact of skilled international migration on human capital stocks across countries. Return migration is a common phenomenon, with 38% of skilled migrants returning to their origin countries within 10 years. Return migration is significantly correlated with industry growth in the origin and destination countries, and is asymmetrically exposed to negative firm employment growth. Using an AKM-style model, we identify worker and country-firm fixed effects, as well as the returns to experience and education by location and current workplace. For workers in emerging economies, the returns to a year of experience in the United States are 59-204% higher than a year of experience in the origin country. Migrants to advanced economies are positively selected on ability relative to stayers, while within this migrant population, returnees exhibit lower ability. Simulations suggest that eliminating skilled international migration would have highly heterogeneous effects across countries, adjusting total (average) human capital stocks within a range of -60% to 40% (-3% to 4%)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Angele, Maritta & Andrea Janßen (2024): Rückkehrmigration in die Türkei aus postmigrantischer Perspektive. In: Migration und Soziale Arbeit, Jg. 46, H. 3, S. 255-261. DOI:10.3262/mig2403255

Abstract

"Mit Unterzeichnung des Anwerbeabkommens 1961 zwischen Deutschland und der Türkei kamen Arbeitnehmer*innen mit ihren Familien aus der Türkei nach Deutschland. Vorliegender Beitrag legt den Fokus einerseits auf das Erleben der Ankunft in Deutschland und andererseits auf die Motive und Entscheidungen, die türkeistämmige Menschen der sogenannten ersten Generation zur Rückkehr bewogen haben. Dabei verweist eine postmigrantische Blickrichtung sowohl auf die Leistungen und Anstrengungen der Zugewanderten als auch auf die Gleichzeitigkeit von Unsichtbarkeit und Rassismuserfahrungen in den Jahren in Deutschland. Nach Rückkehr in die Türkei verfestigen sich die bereits in früheren Jahren etablierten transnationalen Lebensmodelle, deren Voraussetzung eine gewisse ökonomische Unabhängigkeit ist." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bahar, Dany, Andreas Hauptmann, Cem Özgüzel & Hillel Rapoport (2024): Migration and Knowledge Diffusion: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia. In: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Jg. 106, H. 2, S. 287-304., 2021-11-18. DOI:10.1162/rest_a_01165

Abstract

"During the early 1990s Germany offered temporary protection to 700,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of returning migrants in boosting export performance upon their return. Using confidential German administrative data we find that industries with 10% more returning refugees exhibit larger exports between the pre- and post-war periods by 1 to 1.6%. We use exogenous allocation rules for asylum seekers within Germany as an instrument to deal with endogeneity concerns. We show evidence pointing to productivity shifts as the main mechanism behind our results. Consistently, we find our results are driven by refugees in occupations more apt to transfer knowledge, technologies and best-practices." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © MIT Press) ((en))

Zitatform

Bassetto, Jacopo & Giuseppe Ippedico (2024): Tax Incentives and Return Migration. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17224), Bonn, 69 S.

Abstract

"Brain drain is a key policy concern for many countries. In this paper we study whether tax incentives are an effective policy to attract high-skilled expatriates back to their home country, exploiting a generous income tax break for Italian returnees. Using administrative data and a Triple Differences design, we find that eligible individuals are 27% more likely to return to Italy. Additionally, we uncover significant effects throughout the wage distribution, revealing that tax-induced migration is a broad phenomenon beyond top earners. A cost-benefit analysis shows that the tax scheme can pay for itself by targeting young high-skilled individuals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bassetto, Jacopo & Teresa Freitas Monteiro (2024): Immigrants’ Returns Intentions and Job Search Behavior When the Home Country Is Unsafe. (CESifo working paper 10908), München, 51 S.

Abstract

"Migration is often temporary, and the intended length of stay in the host country is an important determinant of immigrants’ labor market behavior, human capital investment, and socioeconomic integration. In this paper, we investigate whether safety conditions in the home country affect immigrants’ return intentions and job search behavior. We combine administrative and survey data with precise information on terrorist attacks worldwide. Our identification strategy exploits the quasi-random occurrence of terrorist attacks in the home country relative to the timing of interviews and job separations in Germany. We show that immigrants interviewed after a terrorist attack in their home country are 12 percentage points more likely to wish to remain in Germany permanently. Immigrants react more strongly if they are less integrated in Germany and have close family members in their home country. Consistent with the prediction that revisions to the intended length of stay affect immigrants’ Labor market behavior, we show that immigrants who enter unemployment when a terrorist event hits their home country are 1.8 percentage points more likely to be employed within three months than immigrants who enter unemployment in quiet times. Among those who find employment within three months, immigrants who experience terror events receive lower hourly wages and are more likely to work part-time. These results suggest that immigrants who enter unemployment in a month with high levels of violence in the home country trade immediate job security for lower earnings and less-productive firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bassetto, Jacopo & Giuseppe Ippedico (2024): Rückkehrmigration am Beispiel Italiens: Steueranreize zeigen Wirkung. In: IAB-Forum H. 10.04.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240410.02

Abstract

"Seit vielen Jahren versucht Deutschland aufgrund des zunehmenden Fachkräftemangels hochqualifizierte Zuwandernde anzuziehen. Deutschland konkurriert hierbei nicht nur mit anderen Zielländern mit vergleichbarem Fachkräftemangel, sondern auch mit den Auswanderungsländern selbst. Einige Staaten, die vom Wegzug einheimischer Fachkräfte betroffen sind, versuchen diese zur Rückkehr ins Heimatland zu bewegen. Sie locken unter anderem mit hohen Steuerermäßigungen für Rückkehrende, wie sie beispielsweise Italien im Jahr 2010 eingeführt hat – mit nicht unerheblichem Erfolg." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Czeranowska, Olga & Dominika Winogrodzka (2024): Socio-occupational Paths of Polish and Lithuanian Returning Migrants: Sequence Analysis of Survey Data with the Use of TraMineR for R. In: Journal of International Migration and Integration, Jg. 25, H. 2, S. 997-1025. DOI:10.1007/s12134-024-01115-2

Abstract

"The growth and diversity in contemporary return migration have given rise to questions related to migrants' (re)integration into their society of origin. In particular, a growing set of studies examine the returnees' labour market situation to understand how time spent living and working abroad affects individuals' social mobility upon return. The key aim of this paper is to explore the socio-occupational paths of returning migrants. Based on the online survey with Polish and Lithuanian returnees (n = 544) who had spent at least a year in the UK, we aim to identify patterns in the socio-occupational sequences of people experiencing returning migration. Based on sequence analysis carried out in TraMineR (Life Trajectory Miner for R) covering the situation of returning migrants before migration, during migration and upon return, we have distinguished four clusters of sequences: (1) sequences with education, (2) sequences with employment, (3) sequences with unemployment and (4) sequences with self-employment. We compare those clusters in terms of demographic characteristics, as well as migration plans. We also take into consideration skills acquired and transferred throughout migration trajectories. With this typology based on the unique dataset of returning migrants, we supplement existing, primarily qualitative, research on returning migrants' careers with the sequence analysis based on quantitative data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Silva, Adriana Cardozo & Sabine Zinn (2024): Geflüchtete senden seltener Geld ins Ausland als andere Migrant*innen. In: DIW-Wochenbericht, Jg. 91, H. 49, S. 771-779. DOI:10.18723/diw_wb:2024-49-1

Abstract

"Über Geldüberweisungen von Geflüchteten in ihre Heimat wurde in den vergangenen Jahren in Deutschland politisch scharf debattiert, was zur Einführung einer Bezahlkarte für Asylbewerber*innen führte. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht, wie sich der Anteil der in Deutschland lebenden Personen, die Geld ins Ausland überweisen, im Laufe der Zeit je nach Migrationshintergrund – mit oder ohne Fluchthintergrund – verändert hat und welche Faktoren die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Geldsendungen beeinflussen. Basierend auf den Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) sowie den IAB-SOEP-Migrationsstichproben und der IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung Geflüchteter von 2013 bis 2022 zeigt die Untersuchung, dass Migrant*innen ohne Fluchthintergrund häufiger Geldtransfers tätigen, während Geflüchtete aufgrund struktureller Barrieren seltener dazu in der Lage sind. Die politische Debatte spiegelt also nicht die Realität wider. Über die Wahrscheinlichkeit, Geldüberweisungen ins Ausland zu tätigen, entscheiden insbesondere die Familiensituation und die Absicht, längerfristig in Deutschland zu bleiben. Die Ergebnisse sollten auch insofern zu einer Neubewertung beitragen, als diese Geldüberweisungen ein wichtiges Instrument zur Erreichung der nachhaltigen Entwicklungsziele darstellen und die Wirtschaft in den Herkunftsländern stabilisieren und Armut reduzieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Tubergen, Frank van, Gusta G. Wachter, Yuliya Kosyakova & Irena Kogan (2024): Return intentions among Ukrainian refugees in Europe: A Cross-National Study. In: International Migration, Jg. 62, H. 5, S. 181-198., 2024-05-28. DOI:10.1111/imig.13291

Abstract

"This study examines the return intentions of Ukrainian refugee women who fled to various European countries following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By analysing data from the cross-national OneUA survey, which included over 18,000 respondents in eight European countries, this research investigates the interplay of contextual, compositional, and cross-level interaction effects on their intentions to return to Ukraine. Our findings reveal notable country differences in return intentions, with Ukrainian women in the Netherlands and Germany displaying the lowest intentions to return, while those in Moldova and Romania showing the highest. Individual-level effects, encompassing factors such as level of education, language skills, partnership status, and region of origin play a significant role in shaping return intentions, yet do not explain the observed country variations. Furthermore, we find that individual-level effects are remarkably consistent across different European countries, suggesting that country- and individual-level conditions independently shape return intentions. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the complexities underlying refugees' return intentions, shedding light on both the broad influences of country context and the significance of individual characteristics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

Zitatform

Bassetto, Jacopo & Giuseppe Ippedico (2023): Easy come, easy go: Return migration increases with tax incentives in the home country. In: IAB-Forum H. 28.11.2023. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20231128.01

Abstract

"For many years, Germany has been facing an increasing skills shortage in key occupations and has sought to attract a growing number of highly-skilled immigrants. In striving for this goal, Germany is competing not only with other countries with similar skills⎼demands but also with more traditional immigrant-sending countries. Some of these try to counterbalance the outflow of highly⎼skilled nationals by introducing large tax discounts for emigrants who eventually return. One example is the Italian returnees’ tax scheme “Legge Controesodo” (2010), which attracted back a sizeable proportion of highly-skilled young Italians who had been working in Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Brücker, Herbert, Andreas Ette, Markus M. Grabka, Yuliya Kosyakova, Wenke Niehues, Nina Rother, C. Katharina Spieß, Sabine Zinn, Martin Bujard, Adriana Cardozo, Jean Philippe Décieux, Amrei Maddox, Nadja Milewski, Robert Naderi, Lenore Sauer, Sophia Schmitz, Silvia Schwanhäuser, Manuel Siegert, Kerstin Tanis & Hans Walter Steinhauer (2023): Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine in Deutschland: Ergebnisse der ersten Welle der IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Befragung. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 02/2023), Nürnberg, 136 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2302

Abstract

"Der russische Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine hat die größte Fluchtbewegung in Europa seit Ende des Zweiten Weltkriegs ausgelöst. Seit Kriegsbeginn sind mehr als eine Million Menschen aus der Ukraine nach Deutschland geflohen. Erste repräsentative Erkenntnisse über deren Lebenssituation und Zukunftspläne ermöglicht die Studie „Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine in Deutschland (IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Befragung)“, eine gemeinsame Studie des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), des Bundesinstituts für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB), des Forschungszentrums des Bundesamts für Migration und Flüchtlinge (BAMF-FZ) und des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) am DIW Berlin. Für diese Studie wurden 11.763 Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine in der Zeit zwischen August und Oktober 2022 befragt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Sallam, Hend (2023): Holding the Door Slightly Open: Germany's Migrants' Return Intentions and Realizations. (SOEPpapers on multidisciplinary panel data research at DIW Berlin 1181), Berlin, 35 S.

Abstract

"Return migration intentions are complex and are not necessarily followed by future return migration. Our study compares successful return or repeated migration with self-declared return intentions. We take advantage of the latest German Socio-Economic Panel survey dropout studies and fieldwork to observe a wider return migration window than reported in the literature to answer the question of whether return migration intentions eventually coincided with actual emigration behaviors. We also examine the validity of return migration estimates. This paper explores whether return intentions eventually materialize, whether they can eventually predict actual return behaviors, and if the determinants of actual and predicted return based on intentions are similar. Overall, our results support that migration intentions can predict actual return behavior. While our results show discrepancies in the predictors of return intentions and actual returns, they show emigration intentions as good predictors of actual future emigration. Moreover, we find that life satisfaction significantly impacts the individual intention to remigrate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Szelewa, Dorota & Michal Polakowski (2023): Labour market hierarchies within and beyond the EU: Poland's politics of migration. In: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Jg. 49, H. 16, S. 4120-4139. DOI:10.1080/1369183X.2023.2207331

Abstract

"This article shows how the hierarchised nature of the EU mobility regime is underpinned by member states' policies in a major country of emigration such as Poland. Drawing on historical institutionalism, this paper documents the path-dependent approach regarding policies that have contributed to the outflow of Polish workers and simultaneously to meet the demand for labour at home. While concerns about the consequences of emigration were raised already in 2005, Polish governments have kept defending the EU policies that underpin this outflow and its hierarchised nature. Rather than to improve the rights of Polish mobile workers, Polish governments have defended companies' rights to use "wage competitiveness" as a method of increasing mobility. In response to the increasing demand in the domestic labour market, governments first tried return campaigns, but they have since turned to importing labour, especially from Ukraine. In this way, the policies of the Polish state have helped reaffirm the hierarchised nature of the EU mobility regime by exporting workers to be subjected to poor conditions abroad while importing Ukrainian workers to experience poor conditions at home. Thus, Poland occupies an unusual place in the "migration chain", being, simultaneously, a source of as well as a destination for migrant workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Adda, Jérôme, Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach (2022): The dynamics of return migration, human capital accumulation, and wage assimilation. In: The Review of Economic Studies, Jg. 89, H. 6, S. 2841-2871. DOI:10.1093/restud/rdac003

Abstract

"This article develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants’ careers in conjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis highlights a novel form of selective return migration where those who plan to stay longer invest more into skill acquisition, with important implications for the assessment of immigrants’ career paths and the estimation of their earnings profiles. Our study also explains the willingness of immigrants to accept jobs at wages that seem unacceptable to natives. Finally, our model provides important insight for the design of migration policies, showing that policies that initially restrict residence or condition residence on achievement shape not only immigrants’ career profiles through their impact on human capital investment but also determine the selection of arrivals and leavers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bilecen, Tuncay (2022): To Stay or to Return? A Review on Return Migration Literature. In: Migration Letters, Jg. 19, H. 4, S. 367-385. DOI:10.33182/ml.v19i4.2092

Abstract

"For a long time, return migration had been one of the neglected topics of migration literature. However, in recent years, many studies discussing return migration in various dimensions have been published. This paper aims to assess the main findings of return migration studies, particularly in recent years, with an emphasis on the multifaceted character of return migrations. This study also reveals that, in the last few decades, the transnational ties established by migrants with their homelands have changed their perspectives on return (i.e., re-migration). This trend shows that while human mobility increases with the development of transportation and communication technology, re-migration tends to take on a cyclical, rather than a permanent character in recent times." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Brücker, Herbert & Philipp Jaschke (2022): Zur verfassungsrechtlichen Prüfung des Asylbewerberleistungsgesetzes. Stellungnahme des IAB vom 4.10.2022 zum Verfahren des Bundesverfassungsgerichts. (IAB-Stellungnahme 06/2022), Nürnberg, 16 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.SN.2206

Abstract

"Mit der Stellungnahme nimmt das IAB die Gelegenheit wahr, sich im Rahmen der verfassungsrechtlichen Prüfung des Asylbewerberleistungsgesetzes (AsylbLG) zu äußern. Im Fokus stehen empirische Erkenntnisse zu bedarfsrelevanten Minder- und Mehrbedarfen von Leistungsberechtigten nach dem AsylbLG sowie zu möglichen Zusammenhängen zwischen der Höhe von Leistungssätzen und dem aufenthaltsrechtlichen Status bzw. der Aufenthaltsdauer in Deutschland. Grundsätzlich geht es bei den zu prüfenden Regelungen im AsylbLG um die Gewährung von Leistungen zur Deckung des notwendigen Bedarfs und des notwendigen persönlichen Bedarfs durch Sachleistungen oder Wertgutscheine (anstatt Geldleistungen). Damit wird von der grundsätzlichen Systematik einer Orientierung der Leistungssätze an denen für Grundleistungsbeziehende nach dem SGB II bzw. SGB XII Abstand genommen. Insbesondere wird unterstellt, dass der Bedarf von Asylbewerberinnen und -bewerbern, die in Gemeinschaftsunterkünften untergebracht sind, geringer ist. Die Annahme, dass Personen, die in Gemeinschaftsunterkünften leben, ähnlich wie Ehe- und andere Partner/Partnerinnen eine Lebensgemeinschaft bilden, erscheint wenig realistisch. Zudem werden Kürzungen der Leistungssätze für die Bereiche Freizeit, Unterhaltung, Kultur (Abteilung 9) und Bildungswesen (Abteilung 10) vorgenommen. Die in dieser Stellungnahme zusammengefasste empirische Evidenz spricht dafür, dass sich Kürzungen der Leistungssätze in diesen Bereichen nachteilig auf die Integration der Asylsuchenden in Gesellschaft und Arbeitsmarkt auswirken. Die Kürzung der Leistungssätze für die Asylsuchenden im Vergleich zu Leistungsbeziehenden nach dem SGB II bzw. dem SGB XII steht im Kontext einer gesellschaftlichen Diskussion über die Anreizwirkungen, sogenannte Pull-Effekte, von sozialen Transferleistungen nach dem AsylbLG. Die Befürchtung, dass die Höhe der Leistungssätze des AsylbLG systematisch die Anreize für die Migration nach Deutschland bzw. die Rückkehr in die Herkunftsländer der Asylsuchenden beeinflusst – also die Aufenthaltsdauer und den Aufenthaltsstatus – wird allerdings nicht durch belastbare empirische Befunde aus der Migrationsforschung gestützt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Görlach, Joseph-Simon & Katarina Kuske (2022): Temporary migration entails benefits, but also costs, for sending and receiving countries. There are important trade-offs between temporary and permanent migration. (IZA world of labor 503), Bonn, 10 S. DOI:10.15185/izawol.503

Abstract

"Migranten, die von vornherein planen, in ihre Heimatländer zurückzukehren, nehmen eher schlechter bezahlte Jobs an, sparen mehr und transferieren mehr Geld. Die Anreize sich zu integrieren und in aufnahmelandspezifische Qualifikationen zu investieren, sind entsprechend schwächer ausgeprägt. was ihre Karriere behindert. Diese Entscheidungen auf Mikroebene haben in Herkunfts- wie Aufnahmeländern makroökonomische Auswirkungen, von den Effekten der Rücküberweisungen und unternehmerischen Investitionen in der Heimat bis hin zu fiskalischen Folgen in den Zielländern. Diese Aufnahmeländer sehen sich mit einem Trade-off konfrontiert: Während die Rückkehrmigration vor dem Eintritt in den Ruhestand einerseits die Kosten für die öffentlichen Sozialsysteme begrenzt, steigern die Aussichten auf eine dauerhafte Niederlassung den beruflichen Erfolg und die Integration, wodurch Steuereinnahmen steigen und der soziale Zusammenhalt gestärkt wird." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Adda, Jérôme, Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach (2021): The dynamics of return migration, human capital accumulation, and wage assimilation. (CESifo working paper 9051), München, 90 S.

Abstract

"To assess the implications of the interplay between anticipated migration durations and immigrants' behavior, we develop a lifecycle model in which immigrants decide labor market participation, consumption, and investment in human capital together with the optimal length of migration. We estimate this model using panel data that provide repeated information on immigrants' return intentions and realized return migrations. We show that the relation between return intentions and human capital investment leads to behavior-based selective outmigration, and that policies that influence migrants' return decisions may lead to suboptimal career profiles, inducing welfare losses for both immigrants and the host country's population." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bakalova, Irina, Ruxanda Berlinschi, Jan Fidrmuc & Yuri Dzyuba (2021): COVID-19, Working from Home and the Potential Reverse Brain Drain. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 845), Maastricht, 14 S.

Abstract

"The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a substantial increase in the prevalence of working from home among white-collar occupations. This can have important implications for the future of the workplace and quality of life. We discuss an additional implication, which we label reverse brain drain: the possibility that white-collar migrant workers return to live in their countries of origin while continuing to work for employers in their countries of destination. We estimate the potential size of this reverse flow using data from the European Labor Force Survey. Our estimates suggest that the UK, France, Switzerland and Germany each have around half a million skilled migrants who could perform their jobs from their home countries. Most of them originate from the other EU member states: both old and new. We discuss the potential economic, social and political implications of such reverse brain drain." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bekaert, Els, Amelie F. Constant, Killian Foubert & Ilse Ruyssen (2021): Longing for Which Home. Evidence from Global Aspirations to Stay, Return or Migrate Onwards. (Working paper / Ghent University. Faculty of Economics and Business Administration 2021,1028), Gent, 45 S.

Abstract

"Aspirations provide the underlying dynamics of the behavior of individuals whether they are realized or not. Knowledge about the characteristics and motives of those who aspire to leave the host country is key for both host and home countries to formulate appropriate and effective policies in order to keep their valued immigrants or citizens and foster their (re-)integration. Based on unique individual-level Gallup World Polls data, we model the aspirations or stated preferences to return or migrate onwards of immigrants across 138 countries worldwide. Our analysis reveals selection in characteristics, a strong role for soft factors like social ties and sociocultural integration, and a faint role for economic factors. Changes in circumstances in the home and host countries are also important determinants of aspirations. Results differ by the host countries’ level of economic development." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Kaufmann, Marc, Joël Machado & Bertrand Verheyden (2021): Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration. (IZA discussion paper 14155), Bonn, 54 S.

Abstract

"Empirical evidence suggests that a large proportion of immigrants who initially intended to stay temporarily in the destination country end up staying permanently, which may lead to suboptimal integration. We study systematic causes of unexpected staying that originate in migrant misperceptions. Our framework contains uncertainty about long-term wages, endogenous integration and savings in the short term, and return migration in the long term. We identify necessary and sufficient conditions on misperceptions that lead migrants to overestimate their probability of return migration, independently of their characteristics. We show that these conditions involve pessimism about the destination country, either in terms of short-term utility, of long-term utility, or of wage prospects. We then highlight specific behavioural biases that give rise to such forms of pessimism. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel, we find that relatively higher pessimism at arrival about future utility and wages is associated with migrants staying unexpectedly ex post." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Schiele, Maximilian (2021): Life satisfaction and return migration: analysing the role of life satisfaction for migrant return intentions in Germany. In: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Jg. 47, H. 1, S. 110-129., 2020-04-28. DOI:10.1080/1369183X.2020.1763786

Abstract

"This study analyses the role of life satisfaction for the intention of migrants to return to their country of origin. It is argued that the utility function of return migration is a function of life satisfaction gains and losses due to migration. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel and the World Value Survey, first-generation migrants from 26 countries were studied on the country level and within a random intercept logistic regression framework. The results suggest that cross-country differences in the intended return rate can be explained by expected cross-country differences in the life satisfaction gains/losses of migrants that return. However, the effect might be quadratic rather than linear. On the micro data level as well, migrants tend to settle or return depending on the life satisfaction in Germany and their country of origin. This effect seems to be driven by relatively recent arrivals and migrants with transnational social ties. The study concludes that migration decisions are to some degree determined by life satisfaction maximisation and that this life satisfaction maximisation behaviour can be best observed when migrants know what to expect from their move." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Caron, Louise & Mathieu Ichou (2020): High Selection, Low Success: The Heterogeneous Effect of Migrants' Access to Employment on Their Remigration. In: International migration review, Jg. 54, H. 4, S. 1104-1133. DOI:10.1177/0197918320904925

Abstract

"This article reconciles contrasting findings on the effect of access to employment on remigration by showing that this effect is actually heterogeneous and depends on migrants' initial educational selection from the origin country. Combining longitudinal data from England and Wales (1971–2011) with data on educational attainment distributions in migrants' origin countries, we find that the impact of being out of a job (unemployed or inactive) on the probability to remigrate is larger among migrants who were initially more positively selected in terms of educational attainment. This interaction effect appears stronger for male and recent migrants. Thus, in addition to migrants' access to employment in the host country, the mismatch between migrants' initial selection — that partly captures their premigration expectations — and their employment status at destination helps explain remigration behaviors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bizeul, Yves & Dennis Bastian Rudolf (Hrsg.) (2019): Politische Debatten um Migration und Integration. Konzepte und Fallbeispiele. Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 229 S. DOI:10.1007/978-3-658-23963-3

Abstract

"Der Sammelband kombiniert die Diskussion theoretischer Konzepte mit länderübergreifenden Analysen zu Migration und Integration. Im Mittelpunkt stehen einerseits Fragen bezüglich der Grenzen klassischer Migrations- und Integrationstheorien bzw. Möglichkeiten für deren Erweiterung und andererseits empirische Fallbeispiele, welche nach den Ursachen und Folgen von Flucht- und Migrationsbewegungen fragen, den länderspezifischen Umgang mit Migration und Integration beleuchten sowie Lösungsansätze und aktuelle Migrations- und Integrationspolitiken diskutieren." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Brücker, Herbert, Johann Fuchs, Eric Schuss, Doris Söhnlein, Parvati Trübswetter & Enzo Weber (2019): Kurzexpertise Zuwanderung. Nürnberg, 58 S.

Abstract

"Die vorliegende Kurzexpertise untersucht, ob und inwieweit die jüngste Einwanderung seit 2005 einen Beitrag dazu leisten kann, das deutsche Rentensystem zu entlasten und den Beitragssatz in der GRV zu stabilisieren. Zur Analyse wird auf die IAB-SOEP-Migrationsstichprobe und den Mikrozensus zurückgegriffen - die nach der Beschreibung des Forschungsvorhabens in Kapitel 1 - in Kapitel 2 zunächst beschrieben werden. In einem ersten Schritt werden in Kapitel 3 die individuellen Merkmale und der Bildungshintergrund der im Ausland geborenen Einwanderinnen und Einwanderer betrachtet. Anschließend wird in Kapital 4 die aktuelle Arbeitsmarktintegration der Zuzüge und ihre Beschäftigungssituation in Abhängigkeit von der Aufenthaltsdauer analysiert. Dabei wird auch erläutert, inwiefern das Rück- und Auswanderungsverhalten der Einwanderinnen und Einwanderer Einfluss auf die Beurteilung des Beitrages von Einwanderung für die Deutsche Rentenversicherung hat. Deshalb schließt sich mit Kapitel 5 eine Prognose an, die auf der Basis eines stochastischen Modells die künftige Bedeutung der in Deutschland lebenden Bevölkerung mit ausländischer Nationalität, insbesondere für den Arbeitsmarkt, darstellt. Abschließend werde die Ergebnisse der einzelnen Kapitel zusammengefasst und diskutiert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Palmberger, Monika (2019): Relational ambivalence: Exploring the social and discursive dimensions of ambivalence. The case of Turkish aging labor migrants. In: International Journal of Comparative Sociology, Jg. 60, H. 1/2, S. 74-90. DOI:10.1177/0020715219832918

Abstract

"Many of Vienna's labor migrants who entered Austria as so-called 'guest workers' together with their spouses long nurtured the dream of returning to their country of origin, at the latest when they retired. By then, however, returning became less than straightforward leading to ambivalence regarding questions of belonging/return and transnational mobility and late-life care. Based on rich qualitative data, in this article, I show that ambivalences are found in the complexity of migrants' narratives, particularly in the way they (1) reassess past choices, (2) negotiate feelings of belonging, and (3) assess future options for late life and care. I argue that the social dimension of ambivalence, which I term 'relational ambivalence,' is crucial to understanding the labor migrants' experiences, reflections, and choices. The analysis shows that ambivalence must be understood as a product of relationships rather than solely an individual experience. The concept of relational ambivalence captures these social and discursive dimensions of ambivalence. The article ultimately carves out the particularity of ambivalence in the general context of migration and in the specific context of Vienna's labor migrants, while accepting feelings of ambivalence or the simultaneity of different, opposing positions in one and the same person as a core human experience." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Scalettaris, Giulia & Flore Gubert (2019): Return Schemes from European Countries: Assessing the Challenges. In: International Migration, Jg. 57, H. 4, S. 91-104. DOI:10.1111/imig.12467

Abstract

"Drawing on a review of the academic literature on return migration and return migration policies, as well as on reports and project documentation, this article provides a general assessment of return schemes from European countries, with a focus on those targeting failed asylum-seekers and irregular migrants. The article first highlights the contrasted understanding of return and reintegration by migration policy-makers and migration scholars respectively. It then provides an overview of the main challenges, focusing on seven key issues: preparedness to return, the imbalance of represented interests, legal mobility, conditions in the countries of origin, the reintegration package, integration in Europe, and the specific obstacles to return faced by failed asylum-seekers. The article highlights the need to reassess return policies and frame more realistic schemes." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))