Zitatform

Bijwaard, Govert E. & Christian Schluter (2026): Interdependent hazards, local interactions and the return decision of recent migrants. In: Spatial Economic Analysis, Jg. 21, H. 2, S. 205-225. DOI:10.1080/17421772.2025.2530498

Abstract

"We propose a new statistical model of spatially interdependent hazards in order to examine whether interactions at the level of the neighborhood are present. To address the endogeneity of location choices, we also implement a weighting scheme that combines insights from inverse propensity score weighting and Bartik-shift-share instrumentation. The good performance of our approach is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo study. In our empirical application a unique large administrative dataset of recent Turkish labor immigrants to The Netherlands is used. We find a positive spatial interaction parameter and show that the local spatial multipliers are substantial." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Falkenhain, Mariella (2026): 'I needed this journey': home visits in wartime as transformative events. In: Journal of Refugee Studies, Jg. 39, H. 2, S. 325-339., 2025-12-23. DOI:10.1093/jrs/feaf088

Abstract

"This article examines how Ukrainian refugees experience wartime home visits. Relying on in-depth, repeated interviews with Ukrainian refugees in Germany, the article explores a state of in-betweenness that characterizes these individuals’ lives shortly after arrival, particularly by disrupting their sense of belonging and capacity to imagine the future. During short-term home visits to Ukraine, the visitors acquire a feel for life in war that is associated with complex feelings of alienation, disillusionment, and futurelessness. This experience helps individuals overcome subjective states of the in-between and move forward in life, irrespective of the persistent structural limbo related to temporary protection. Considering migrant home visits as transformative events advances recent debates about liminality and protracted displacement. It also has important implications for longer-term processes of social inclusion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Oxford University Press) ((en))

Zitatform

Fortunato, Cecilia, Elena Ambrosetti & Andrea Iacobucci (2026): The Evolution of Return Migration Studies: A Systematic Literature Review With Text Mining and Topic Modelling. In: International Migration, Jg. 64, H. 1. DOI:10.1111/imig.70128

Abstract

"The study offers a systematic review of scientific literature on ‘return migration’ performing computational text mining and topic modelling. On a sample of 3000 studies indexed in Scopus and published between 1960 and 2020, we present a textual analysis and a clusters' analysis of titles, keywords, abstracts and publications' metadata. Results show a rapid growth in research since the 1970s, mirroring the evolution of migration events and the pace of theoretical advancements. The research landscape appears dominated by receiving high-income countries' perspective. Throughout the entire period, topics related to culture, ethnicity and political identity have been prominent. A progressive shift in the economic paradigm has been identified, with labour-related keywords leaving room for more subjective aspects of well-being. Growing attention has been paid to different forms of migrants' capital and vulnerabilities, along with a declining interest in demographic implications of return, especially with respect to African and European internal and international migrations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

Zitatform

Goßner, Laura, Jasmin Hallyburton & Julia Reinold (2026): When bureaucracy becomes a barrier: What migrants think about Germany’s administrative processes. In: IAB-Forum H. 02.07.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260702.02

Abstract

"Die Beantragung einer Aufenthaltserlaubnis, die Anerkennung von Ausbildungs- und Hochschulabschlüssen, der Erwerb der deutschen Staatsbürgerschaft: Eingewanderte sind hierzulande mit teils sehr langwierigen bürokratischen Prozessen konfrontiert. Aktuellen Befragungsergebnissen des IAB zufolge machen viele dabei negative Erfahrungen unterschiedlichster Art. Fast ein Drittel derjenigen, die Deutschland wieder verlassen, begründet dies auch mit diesen Erfahrungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Kanas, Agnieszka, Frank van Tubergen & Yuliya Kosyakova (2026): Determinants of refugees’ generalised and institutional trust: evidence from Germany. In: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Jg. 52, H. 1, S. 85-104., 2025-05-28. DOI:10.1080/1369183x.2025.2514800

Abstract

"This paper examines the factors shaping refugees’ institutionalized and generalized trust, focusing on three key influences: (1) pre-arrival migration effects, such as experiences of trauma; (2) asylum procedure effects, including the length and outcome of the process and perceptions of fairness; and (3) post-procedure effects, particularly the context of reception. Using data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees in Germany, we find that the conditions of the asylum process and the reception context are critical determinants of refugees’ trust. Specifically, while the length of the asylum process and living in shared accommodations negatively affect institutional trust, these impacts are largely mediated by other refugee-specific experiences, such as perceptions of procedural and interactional justice. Receiving a positive asylum decision directly enhances refugees ’ trust in German institutions and other people, whereas being trapped in existential limbo severely erodes trust levels. Additionally, refugees subject to residency restrictions exhibit lower institutional and generalized trust levels than those without such limitations. These findings highlight the critical role of short and fair asylum procedures and inclusive reception policies in fostering trust among refugees, with significant implications for improving integration outcomes and social cohesion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Lukas Olbrich & Simon Wagner (2026): Überlegungen und konkrete Pläne von Migrantinnen und Migranten, Deutschland wieder zu verlassen, sind regional sehr unterschiedlich. In: IAB-Forum – Grafik aktuell H. 23.01.2026, 2026-01-20. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.GA.20260123.01

Abstract

"Auswanderungsüberlegungen und konkrete Auswanderungspläne von Migrantinnen und Migranten, die in Deutschland leben, sind regional sehr unterschiedlich. Das zeigen die Ergebnisse der IAB-Online-Befragung „International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany“ (IMPa), die Ende 2024 und Anfang 2025 durchgeführt wurde. Bundesweit gaben rund 26 Prozent der Befragten an, in den letzten 12 Monaten darüber nachgedacht zu haben, Deutschland wieder zu verlassen. Konkrete Auswanderungspläne sind mit insgesamt 3 Prozent weniger häufig zu beobachten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Julia Reinold, Theresa Koch, Lukas Olbrich, Katia Gallegos Torres & Simon Wagner (2026): International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa): Wer bleibt, wer geht - und warum Eingewanderte Deutschland wieder verlassen. (IAB-Kurzbericht 10/2026), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2610

Abstract

"Wer nach Deutschland einwandert, bleibt nicht zwangsläufig dauerhaft. Angesichts des wachsenden Fachkräftebedarfs ist es arbeitsmarktpolitisch relevant, ob Eingewanderte langfristig in Deutschland bleiben oder wieder ab wandern. In der ersten Welle des International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) gaben rund 3 Prozent der Eingewanderten an, Abwanderungspläne zu haben. Das sind hochgerechnet 312.000 Personen. Die Folgebefragung 2025 macht nun erstmals sichtbar, wer Deutschland tatsächlich verlassen hat, wohin diese Personen gezogen sind, welche Gründe dafür ausschlaggebend waren und welches Wiederzuwanderungspotenzial besteht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Julia Reinold, Theresa Koch, Lukas Olbrich, Katia Gallegos Torres & Simon Wagner (2026): International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa): Who stays, who moves on - and why immigrants leave Germany. (IAB-Kurzbericht 10/2026 (en)), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2610.en

Abstract

"Wer nach Deutschland einwandert, bleibt nicht zwangsläufig dauerhaft. Angesichts des wachsenden Fachkräftebedarfs ist es arbeitsmarktpolitisch relevant, ob Eingewanderte langfristig in Deutschland bleiben oder wieder ab wandern. In der ersten Welle des International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) gaben rund 3 Prozent der Eingewanderten an, Abwanderungspläne zu haben. Das sind hochgerechnet 312.000 Personen. Die Folgebefragung 2025 macht nun erstmals sichtbar, wer Deutschland tatsächlich verlassen hat, wohin diese Personen gezogen sind, welche Gründe dafür ausschlaggebend waren und welches Wiederzuwanderungspotenzial besteht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Recchi, Ettore, Luca Bernasconi & Alejandra Rodriguez Sanchez (2026): Short‐Term Visa, Long‐Term Stay? Estimating Inflows of Overstayers in the Schengen Area Using Air Passenger Records and Facebook Mobility Data. In: International Migration, Jg. 64, H. 1. DOI:10.1111/imig.70123

Abstract

"Overstayers—travellers entering a country with a valid visa but staying beyond the initially authorised period—are a blind spot of migration research. Past studies claim that overstaying is indeed the main gateway to irregular migration in Europe, but few estimates exist. This paper explores three new methods to estimate the inflows of overstayers. We concentrate on the Schengen area as destination, given its relevance in global migration flows, and on non-European countries as origins, since for travellers from these countries commercial flights are the most likely transportation mode to Europe. Our methods rely on aggregate information on incoming and departing passengers from all airports in the Schengen Area, and on Facebook users' mobility data. In the first method, we compute ‘net air travel flows’ as the difference between incoming and outgoingpassengers; we then deduce net regular migration (using data from Eurostat and the QuantMig project) from ‘net air travel flows’ to obtain ‘unaccounted net flows’, which we hold to equate approximately to newly incoming overstayers with short-stay visas for 2019. In the second method, building on the first estimate, we employ the logic of gravity models to project estimates for later years. In the third method, we build on the intuitions of the first method but use net migration figures from data on Facebook users' cross-border movements. Substantively, the results of the different methods converge, indicating around 450,000 new overstayers who entered the whole of the Schengen Area in 2019 with short-stay visas. Analyses for the following years obtained with the second and third method match and are in line with changes in travel policies during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020 and 2021), suggesting a significant reduction in the number of overstayers for those years and an uptick for the years 2022–2023. By uncovering the size and scope of the overstaying population we shed light on a highly contested issue in the public debate and ultimately contribute to raise awareness on the constructed nature of the ‘regular’ versus ‘irregular’ framing of migration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Reinold, Julia, Laura Goßner & Jasmin Hallyburton (2026): Wenn Bürokratie zur Hürde wird: Wie Eingewanderte die administrativen Verfahren in Deutschland bewerten. In: IAB-Forum H. 02.07.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260702.01

Abstract

"Die Beantragung einer Aufenthaltserlaubnis, die Anerkennung von Ausbildungs- und Hochschulabschlüssen, der Erwerb der deutschen Staatsbürgerschaft: Eingewanderte sind hierzulande mit teils sehr langwierigen bürokratischen Prozessen konfrontiert. Aktuellen Befragungsergebnissen des IAB zufolge machen viele dabei negative Erfahrungen unterschiedlichster Art. Fast ein Drittel derjenigen, die Deutschland wieder verlassen, begründet dies auch mit diesen Erfahrungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Reiß, Lea Giulia (2026): Who gets to return? Party politics and the selectivity of European emigrant return policies. In: Migration Studies, Jg. 14, H. 1. DOI:10.1093/migration/mnaf061

Abstract

"Why do European governments encourage the return of some emigrants but not others? Across the EU, emigrant return policies tend to be highly selective, prioritizing specific emigrants, such as young people, skilled professionals, or entrepreneurs. Drawing on an original dataset of eighty-one national-level emigrant return policies adopted by seventeen EU member states (2004–23), alongside in-depth case studies of Ireland and Portugal, this study investigates how and why governments prioritize certain emigrants for return. The study argues that governments’ ideological outlook, core constituencies, and their strategic positioning in electoral competition play a central role in shaping the design and targeting of policies. The analysis reveals that the party family of the strongest governing party, rather than the government ’s position on the left–right spectrum, determines the primary target group of return policies. Social democrats tend to favour workers, liberals prioritize highly skilled professionals and entrepreneurs, while conservatives, Christian democrats, and far-right parties more frequently target families. The case studies further reveal that electoral incentives and timing shape policy targeting, especially in the run-up to national elections. The article contributes to research on migration governance and party politics, highlighting how migration promotion policies, such as emigrant return policies, are not neutral responses to current demographic and economic needs but serve as strategic tools in political competition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Silva, Bárbara G., Nicholas C. Andriese & James G. Combs (2026): Return Migrant Entrepreneurship: A Systematic Review and Future Research Agenda. In: Entrepreneurship theory and practice, Jg. 50, H. 1, S. 115-149. DOI:10.1177/10422587251322402

Abstract

"Why do migrants return home and start businesses? Research on this multistage phenomenon—that is, return followed by entrepreneurship—is fragmented, reflecting different scholarly approaches and reasons migrants return and start businesses (or not). We systematically review 80 papers addressing aspects of returnee entrepreneurship and organize findings into a two-stage process model grounded in three levels of analysis—institutional, social, and individual. Our model contributes by providing a parsimonious way to understand returnee entrepreneurship and describe what has been learned. We also contribute a research agenda to help entrepreneurship scholars leverage what is known about entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial processes to address critical unanswered questions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

(2026): Migrationsbericht der Bundesregierung 2024. Vorläufige, nicht gelayoutete und nicht barrierefreie Version. (Migrationsbericht der Bundesregierung 2024), Berlin, 329 S. DOI:10.48570/bamf.fz.mb.2024.d.2026.migrationsbericht.1.0

Abstract

"Der vom BAMF-Forschungszentrum erstellte Migrationsbericht 2024 wurde am 4. Februar 2026 durch das Bundeskabinett beschlossen. Neben umfassenden Wanderungsdaten zu Deutschland enthält der Bericht einen europäischen Vergleich zum Migrationsgeschehen und zur Asylzuwanderung. Er behandelt das Phänomen der irregulären Migration und informiert über die Struktur und Entwicklung der Bevölkerung mit Einwanderungsgeschichte in Deutschland." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Adunts, Davit, Ahmet Coskun, Andreas Hauptmann, Maria Theresa Koch & Yuliya Kosyakova (2025): Polnische Arbeitskräfte in Deutschland. (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung. Aktuelle Daten und Indikatoren), Nürnberg, 19 S.

Abstract

"Polnische Staatsangehörige bilden mit einem Anteil von 6,6 Prozent der ausländischen Bevölkerung im erwerbsfähigen Alter eine der größten Staatsangehörigkeitsgruppen in Deutschland (hinter Staatsangehörigen aus der Türkei, der Ukraine und Rumänien). Im Jahr 2024 war die Nettozuwanderung von polnischen Staatsangehörigen jedoch erstmals seit Einführung der Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit rückläufig. Die Arbeitsmarktintegration von polnischen Staatsangehörigen ist gemessen an gängigen Indikatoren insgesamt positiv zu bewerten: Die Beschäftigungsquote lag im Dezember 2024 bei 62,0 Prozent und ist damit höher als in der ausländischen Bevölkerung insgesamt (55,1 %); die Arbeitslosenquote lag bei 7,6 Prozent – im Vergleich zu 14,8 Prozent für die ausländische Bevölkerung insgesamt. Der Anteil der erwerbsfähigen Leistungsberechtigten lag im Dezember 2024 mit 5,8 Prozent deutlich niedriger als bei den ausländischen Staatsangehörigen insgesamt (17,3 %). Unter den sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten sind polnische Staatsangehörige hauptsächlich im Fachkraftbereich vertreten (50,2 %), 40,4 Prozent sind im Helferbereich beschäftigt, 9,3 Prozent im Spezialisten- bzw. Expertenbereich. Sie arbeiten überdurchschnittlich häufig im verarbeitenden Gewerbe, in Verkehr und Lagerei, im Baugewerbe sowie der Arbeitnehmerüberlassung. Über 50 Prozent arbeiten in einer dieser vier Branchen. Zudem sind sie überdurchschnittlich in Engpassberufen beschäftigt. Deutschlands Attraktivität als Zielland für Personen in Polen im Alter von 18 bis 34 Jahren nahm in den letzten Jahren ab. Während Deutschland zwischen 2009 und 2013 noch das am häufigsten genannte Zielland war (23 %), sank der Anteil bis 2024 auf 9 Prozent. Überdies geben immer mehr Personen aus Polen mit tertiärem Bildungsabschluss an, nicht auswandern, sondern in Polen bleiben zu wollen. 52,2 Prozent der polnischen Eingewanderten in Deutschland geben an, dauerhaft in Deutschland bleiben zu wollen, 14,5 Prozent planen nur einen temporären Aufenthalt und 33,3 Prozent sind noch unentschlossen. 30,7 Prozent haben im vergangenen Jahr über eine Ausreise nachgedacht; rund 4,1 Prozent hegen bereits konkrete Abwanderungspläne – von letzteren wollen 68 Prozent nach Polen heimkehren, gefolgt von 9 Prozent, die in die Schweiz auswandern möchten. Dabei haben insbesondere Jüngere unter 35 Jahren die Absicht, Deutschland wieder zu verlassen. Als Motive für Auswanderungsüberlegungen oder konkrete Pläne, Deutschland wieder zu verlassen, geben Polinnen und Polen vor allem strukturelle Gründe an: die allgemeine wirtschaftliche Lage (57,7 %), die politische Lage (56,0 %), hohe Steuern (45,9 %), aufwändige Bürokratie (38,0 %) sowie persönliche Vorlieben (29,6 %). Als Gründe dafür, dass polnische Eingewanderte, die Deutschland wieder verlassen möchten, ein bestimmtes Zielland präferieren (sei es Polen oder ein anderes Land) wurden genannt: persönliche Vorlieben (45,5 %), vorhandene Sprachkenntnisse (44,4 %), wirtschaftliche Lage in dem Zielland (42,4 %), gefolgt von eigenen beruflichen Gründen (40,4 %) und Freunden / Bekannten, die dort leben (40,1 %). 15,4 Prozent der Polinnen und Polen geben an, nach einer Rückkehr oder einer Weiterwanderung in ein drittes Land, eine erneute Rückkehr nach Deutschland in Betracht zu ziehen, während 38,9 Prozent dies verneinen. Ein Großteil ist noch unentschlossen (45,7 %)." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Bassetto, Jacopo & Teresa Freitas Monteiro (2025): Immigrants Return Intentions and Labor Market Behavior When the Home Country is Unsafe. In: Journal of labor economics, S. 1-52. DOI:10.1086/739054

Abstract

"This paper investigates whether shocks to safety conditions in the home country affect immigrants’ return intentions and labor market behavior. For identification, we exploit the quasi-random occurrence of violent events in the home-country relative to the timing of interviews and job separations in Germany. We show that immigrants interviewed after a violent event in their home-country are more likely to wish to remain in Germany permanently. If immigrants enter unemployment following a violent event in their home-country, they increase their job search effort and find employment faster, at the cost of accepting lower wages and working in less productive firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bruzelius, Cecilia & Lea Reiß (2025): Please come back! How and why European governments try to reattract emigrated citizens. In: Comparative Migration Studies, Jg. 13, H. 1. DOI:10.1186/s40878-025-00421-7

Abstract

"Many EU Member States have adopted emigrant return policies (ERPs) meant to encourage and assist emigrated citizens’ migration back to their country of origin. Despite the significance of this trend, there is a notable lack of comparative research on the nature of ERPs and explanations for their introduction. This article offers a comprehensive analysis of ERPs across all EU countries that have introduced such policies in the past two decades (2004–2023) – including 17 countries and 81 policies. We examine policy instruments, target groups, policy justifications, and the political contexts associated with the introduction of ERPs. Our analysis reveals that ERPs are largely symbolic in substance – although the use of more costlyeconomic tools increased towards the end of the analysed period –, primarily targeting the young and highly skilled, and justified predominantly in relation to the economy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that ERPs are often introduced for political reasons: while many of these policies are likely to be ineffective in shaping migration, they have been adopted in contexts where emigration and/or related issues were salient to showcase action on a highly complex policy issue. The study covers new empirical ground regarding how and why EU Member States govern migration within a free movement space and the understudied politics of emigration and return." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Erlinghagen, Marcel & Lisa Mansfeld (2025): Aus- und Rückwanderung deutscher Arbeitskräfte. Droht eine Verschärfung des Fachkräftemangels? In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 78, H. 4, S. 304-311. DOI:10.5771/0342-300x-2025-4-304

Abstract

"Auf Basis der Daten der German Emigration and Remigration Panel Study (GERPS) untersucht der Beitrag Ausmaß und Folgen der internationalen Migration deutscher Arbeitskräfte. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass es kaum zu dauerhaften Verlusten kommt, sondern die Abwanderung deutscher Fachkräfte ins Ausland vielfach ein temporäres Phänomen ist. Die allermeisten Ausgewanderten kommen nach einigen Jahren zurück. Diese zirkuläre Migration geht häufig einher mit verbesserten Arbeitsbedingungen (Lohn, Aufstiegschancen, Autonomie) im Ausland ebenso wie nach der Rückkehr nach Deutschland. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass die Rückgewanderten neues Wissen und neue Fertigkeiten mit nach Deutschland bringen, wovon auch und gerade Unternehmen profitieren sollten. Allerdings kommt es insgesamt zu einem Nettoverlust von Arbeitskräften, der sich für einzelne Berufsgruppen unterschiedlich darstellt. Gleichwohl ist gemessen am Gesamtvolumen der Berufsgruppen dieser Verlust von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Hier gilt es, in Zukunft stärker die Abwanderung ausländischer Fachkräfte in den Blick der Forschung und des politischen Interesses zu rücken, die quantitativ wesentlich bedeutsamer sein dürfte." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Hammer, Luisa, Kamal Kassam, Yuliya Kosyakova, Katia Gallegos Torres, Lukas Olbrich, Theresa Koch & Simon Wagner (2025): The Downfall of Assad: Syrian Refugees’ Settlement Intentions after the Unexpected Regime Change. (IAB-Discussion Paper 09/2025), Nürnberg, 31 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.DP.2509

Abstract

"Am 8. Dezember 2024 veränderte der plötzliche Zusammenbruch des Regimes von Bashar al‑Assad die politische Landschaft Syriens und die Rückkehraussichten für Millionen von im Ausland lebenden Syrern abrupt. Wir nutzen diesen unerwarteten Regimewechsel als natürliches Experiment, um die kausalen Auswirkungen der Entwicklungen im Heimatland auf die Ansiedlungs‑und Rückkehrabsichten von Flüchtlingen zu schätzen. Auf der Grundlage neuartiger Umfragedaten aus Deutschland, die nur wenige Tage vor dem Sturz Assads erhoben wurden, stellen wir fest, dass der Zusammenbruch des Regimes die Ansiedlungsabsichten der Syrer in Deutschland erheblich beeinflusste. Befragte, die danach befragt wurden, äußerten eher temporäre Niederlassungsabsichten, gaben eher an, Auswanderungsüberlegungen zu haben, und äußerten eher Unsicherheit über ihre Zukunft in Deutschland. Wir finden jedoch keine Auswirkungen auf konkrete kurzfristige Auswanderungspläne, was darauf hindeutet, dass die erhöhten Rückkehrwünsche eher zukunftsorientierte Absichten als unmittelbare Verhaltensänderungen widerspiegeln. Weitere Analysen zeigen, dass Rechtssicherheit in Deutschland und eine schwächere soziale oder emotionale Integration mit einer stärkeren Präferenz für einen vorübergehenden Aufenthalt korrelieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Lukas Olbrich, Katia Gallegos Torres, Luisa Hammer, Theresa Koch & Simon Wagner (2025): Germany as a stopover? Insights into return and International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa). (IAB-Forschungsbericht 15/2025 (en)), Nürnberg, 92 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2515en

Abstract

"Temporary migration of people who have immigrated to Germany is a frequently observed phenomenon, and the trend is rising. Between 2014 and 2023, the average emigration rate among foreign nationals ranged from 6 to 11 percent, depending on the data source. At the same time, Germany requires a net annual immigration of around 400,000 people to stabilize its labor force potential. The high mobility propensity among immigrants can challenge this goal - with far-reaching consequences for securing skilled labor, integration, and the long-term viability of the welfare state. To gain robust insights into the causes, patterns, and effects of mobility, the International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) has been established as a new longitudinal online survey. It includes first-time surveys every two years, complemented by annual follow-up surveys over a four-year period. In the first wave (December 2024 to April 2025), around 50,000 immigrants participated. The first follow-up survey is scheduled for the second half of 2025. Using statistical weighting procedures, the data allow for representative statements about individuals in Germany who immigrated by April 2, 2024, are registered in the data of the Federal Employment Agency (e.g. via employment, benefit receipt, or participation in labor market programs), and are in working age (18 to 65 years). Key findings from the first wave indicate: A narrow majority of immigrants (57 percent, roughly 5.7 million people) plan to stay in Germany permanently. Around 1.2 million (12 percent) aim for a temporary stay, and roughly 3 million (30 percent) remain uncertain. About 2.6 million people (26 percent) reported having considered leaving Germany in the last 12 months; approximately 300,000 (3 percent) already have concrete emigration plans - split roughly equally between return migration and onward migration. Given Germany's structural need for skilled labor, the political priority in migration policy is shifting: not only immigration, but also the long-term retention of immigrants is becoming a key challenge. The data reveal that emigration intentions vary widely. Those intending to return primarily target European countries such as Poland or Romania but also Turkey, while onward migrants tend to prefer Switzerland, the United States, or Spain. Motivations also differ: family reasons dominate returns to the country of origin, while economic opportunities play a key role in onward migration. Main reasons for emigration considerations include political dissatisfaction, personal preferences, tax burdens, and bureaucracy. These motives are present among labor migrants, education- and family-based migrants alike; refugees also frequently cite discrimination as a major reason. Overall, the findings suggest that state measures such as reducing bureaucracy, simplifying administrative procedures, and offering tax incentives could help lower emigration intentions. Regarding sociodemographic and migration-specific factors, the IMPa results highlight their central role in shaping emigration intentions. Men report higher rates of temporary stay intentions, emigration considerations, and concrete migration plans than women. Region of origin and reason for migration significantly influence mobility patterns: refugees and individuals with family reunification backgrounds express considerably lower emigration tendencies, while migrants from EU countries and those who came for work or education show higher mobility. Furthermore, immigrants with permanent residence status or EU/German citizenship are more likely to consider leaving - probably due to broader legal mobility options. The IMPa results highlight that labor market factors and economic integration also play a critical but nuanced role in shaping emigration intentions. Education emerges as a key predictor: highly educated individuals more frequently express thoughts of leaving or make concrete plans than those with lower educational levels. Qualifications obtained in Germany or third countries - as well as foreign qualifications recognized in Germany - are more strongly associated with emigration considerations, likely due to their higher international transferability. Employed individuals are more likely to report temporary stay intentions than those who are not employed or are in training. Sectors where the outmigration risk among immigrants is particularly high-such as IT and technical services-are also those facing significant skilled labor shortages. Furthermore, it is notable that in other sectors vulnerable to labor shortages-such as healthcare, construction, public administration, or retail-, emigration tendencies are not above average, but they are still relevant. Higher incomes are also associated with stronger emigration considerations and plans, which indicates that migrants who are particularly well integrated into the labor market want to leave Germany again. Another important factor is job satisfaction: the less satisfied individuals are with their work, the more frequently they express temporary intentions to stay, thoughts of emigration, and concrete emigration plans. Job satisfaction thus acts as a stabilizing factor. Language skills show differentiated effects: while descriptive findings suggest that individuals with poor German skills have lower intentions to stay permanently and higher mobility plans, multivariate analyses indicate that good German skills are associated with increased mobility. Good English skills also tend to increase emigration intentions, likely due to better international labor market options. Social integration and societal participation are also crucial: family ties in Germany and regular contact with German nationals have a stabilizing effect. A strong emotional attachment to Germany stabilizes the intention to stay, whereas a strong connection to the country of origin increases the likelihood of emigration. A strong subjective sense of welcome and low perceptions of discrimination significantly reduce the probability of emigration considerations and plans. Conversely, perceptions of discrimination - especially in interactions with authorities, police, and at the workplace - greatly increases emigration tendencies. Political dissatisfaction also significantly raises the likelihood of emigration-related thoughts and plans. In summary, emigration intentions do not arise randomly but are the result of a complex interplay of individual characteristics, social integration, economic anchoring, and perceived societal acceptance. One of the central findings of the IMPa survey is that those who came to Germany for work or education, better educated, more economically successful, and more linguistically integrated are the ones most likely to consider leaving or already have concrete plans to do so. In other words: those most urgently needed to secure Germany's future labor supply are also those most inclined to leave. This selective mobility endangers the country's long-term ability to retain skilled labor. It is therefore essential to offer this group a meaningful perspective and to position Germany not only as a place of immigration but as a country in which people want to stay and build their future. This includes faster and more transparent recognition of qualifications, a determined reduction of bureaucratic hurdles, family-friendly integration policies, and targeted measures against everyday and workplace discrimination. Only when immigrants feel like fully included members of society - with real opportunities for participation and professional advancement - are they likely to choose Germany as their long-term home and pursue both personal and professional goals here. So far, only about one fifth of those with emigration plans have taken concrete steps towards leaving. At the same time, roughly one fifth express a long-term wish to return to Germany, one third rule it out, and about half remain undecided. This means that around two thirds of those considering emigration are potentially open to returning in the future. Activating and supporting this return potential could become a valuable component of Germany's strategic labor policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Kosyakova, Yuliya & Enzo Weber (2025): Bleiben oder gehen? Das Demografieproblem lässt sich nicht allein durch die Zuwanderung von Fachkräften lösen. Wir müssen auch deren Abwanderung verringern. Denkfabrik. In: Wirtschaftswoche H. 3, S. 38.