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Fluchtmigrantinnen und -migranten – Bildung und Arbeitsmarkt

Auf der Flucht vor Krieg und politischer Verfolgung verlassen viele Menschen ihr Heimatland und suchen Schutz und neue Perspektiven in Deutschland und beantragen Asyl. Die Beteiligung am Arbeitsmarkt wird häufig als Schlüssel für die gesellschaftliche Integration der Fluchtmigrantinnen und -migranten gesehen. Welche Qualifikationen bringen die Menschen mit, welche arbeitsmarktpolitischen Maßnahmen sind hilfreich? Wie gehen die einzelnen Bundesländer damit um, welche Auswirkungen auf die deutsche Wirtschaft und die Sozialsysteme sind zu erwarten, wie sieht die Situation in anderen Ländern aus?
Dieses Themendossier stellt wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse zum Thema zusammen und ermöglicht den Zugang zu weiterführenden Informationen sowie zu Positionen der politischen Akteure.
Literatur zur besonderen Situation der Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine finden Sie im Themendossier Auswirkungen des Krieges gegen die Ukraine auf Wirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt und Fluchtmigration in Deutschland

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  • Literaturhinweis

    'I needed this journey': home visits in wartime as transformative events (2026)

    Falkenhain, Mariella ;

    Zitatform

    Falkenhain, Mariella (2026): 'I needed this journey': home visits in wartime as transformative events. In: Journal of Refugee Studies, S. 1-15. DOI:10.1093/jrs/feaf088

    Abstract

    "This article examines how Ukrainian refugees experience wartime home visits. Relying on in-depth, repeated interviews with Ukrainian refugees in Germany, the article explores a state of in-betweenness that characterizes these individuals’ lives shortly after arrival, particularly by disrupting their sense of belonging and capacity to imagine the future. During short-term home visits to Ukraine, the visitors acquire a feel for life in war that is associated with complex feelings of alienation, disillusionment, and futurelessness. This experience helps individuals overcome subjective states of the in-between and move forward in life, irrespective of the persistent structural limbo related to temporary protection. Considering migrant home visits as transformative events advances recent debates about liminality and protracted displacement. It also has important implications for longer-term processes of social inclusion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Oxford University Press) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Falkenhain, Mariella ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Settlement, Return, or Onward Migration? An Intersectional Perspective on Migration Decisions (2026)

    Gallegos Torres, Katia ; Kanas, Agnieszka ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ;

    Zitatform

    Gallegos Torres, Katia, Agnieszka Kanas & Yuliya Kosyakova (2026): Settlement, Return, or Onward Migration? An Intersectional Perspective on Migration Decisions. (SocArXiv papers), 36 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/a38zj_v1

    Abstract

    "Out-migration is a central yet understudied dimension of migration processes, with important implications for labor supply, integration trajectories, and population composition. This paper examines how out-migration intentions vary across migrant groups and how economic ties, socio-cultural embeddedness, and transnational ties are associated with return and onward migration. Using recent data on immigrants in Germany, the analysis shows that out-migration intentions are shaped by multiple mechanisms rather than a single dominant factor. Socio-cultural embeddedness is the strongest correlate of lower mobility, whereas economic resources and transnational ties have more heterogeneous associations. Return and onward migration are linked to distinct configurations of attachments, and these patterns vary systematically by gender and migration motive. Men are more likely to report onward migration, and economic migrants exhibit higher overall mobility than family migrants and refugees. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between forms of mobility and moving beyond purely economic explanations to better understand migrant retention and mobility dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Gallegos Torres, Katia ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    When bureaucracy becomes a barrier: What migrants think about Germany’s administrative processes (2026)

    Goßner, Laura ; Reinold, Julia ; Hallyburton, Jasmin;

    Zitatform

    Goßner, Laura, Jasmin Hallyburton & Julia Reinold (2026): When bureaucracy becomes a barrier: What migrants think about Germany’s administrative processes. In: IAB-Forum H. 02.07.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260702.02

    Abstract

    "Die Beantragung einer Aufenthaltserlaubnis, die Anerkennung von Ausbildungs- und Hochschulabschlüssen, der Erwerb der deutschen Staatsbürgerschaft: Eingewanderte sind hierzulande mit teils sehr langwierigen bürokratischen Prozessen konfrontiert. Aktuellen Befragungsergebnissen des IAB zufolge machen viele dabei negative Erfahrungen unterschiedlichster Art. Fast ein Drittel derjenigen, die Deutschland wieder verlassen, begründet dies auch mit diesen Erfahrungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Goßner, Laura ; Reinold, Julia ; Hallyburton, Jasmin;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    From the integration paradox to migration aspirations: Return migration, onward migration, or immobility? (2026)

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Witte, Nils ;

    Zitatform

    Kosyakova, Yuliya & Nils Witte (2026): From the integration paradox to migration aspirations: Return migration, onward migration, or immobility? (SocArXiv papers), 48 S. DOI:10.17605/OSF.IO/MYZU3

    Abstract

    "Despite extensive research on the integration paradox, its behavioral consequences remain largely unexamined. Although integration is expected to foster long-term settlement, structurally integrated migrants often report heightened discrimination. We argue that these experiences increase aspirations to leave, but their translation into migration plans depends on migrants’ capabilities. Building on an aspirations–capabilities framework, we conceptualize education as a key determinant of migration capabilities distinguishing between absolute and relative education. Absolute education captures skill transferability across destinations, whereas relative education reflects migrants’ position within the origin-country distribution and associated status expectations. We further argue that return and onward migration follow distinct evaluative logics: return is shaped by relative status considerations vis-à-vis the origin country, while onward migration reflects perceived skill transferability in alternative destinations. Using data from the International Mobility Panel of Migrants (IMPa), a large-scale survey of immigrants in Germany (N=41,600), we show migrants with higher absolute education are more likely to respond to alienation by planning onward migration. Contrary to our expectations, higher relative education is also associated with increased onward migration, while those with lower relative education are more likely to consider return." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    War beyond borders: how military conflict in Ukraine shapes refugees’ settlement intentions abroad (2026)

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Schwanhäuser, Silvia ; Ette, Andreas ;

    Zitatform

    Kosyakova, Yuliya, Andreas Ette & Silvia Schwanhäuser (2026): War beyond borders: how military conflict in Ukraine shapes refugees’ settlement intentions abroad. In: European Sociological Review, S. 1-18. DOI:10.1093/esr/jcag008

    Abstract

    "This study investigates whether military conflict intensities in refugees’ home regions continue to shape their lives after arrival in a safe haven. While war and local conflict are well-established drivers of initial displacement, it remains unclear whether ongoing conflict influences settlement decision once refugees have escaped the immediate threat. We address this question using longitudinal data from the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, linked to high-frequency conflict data from Ukraine following the 2022 Russian invasion. Our findings show that both short- and long-term conflict intensities significantly affect refugees’ intentions to settle permanently abroad, with short-term shocks exerting a markedly stronger influence. Emotional responses to acute violence appear to disrupt more deliberative planning, consistent with ecological models of refugee distress. In contrast, long-term conflict intensity effects are weaker and diminish with time spent in the host country, suggesting processes of adaptation or habituation. We also find important heterogeneity: male refugees and those migrating for economic or family reasons are particularly sensitive to conflict dynamics, whereas those with family left behind are generally less inclined to settle permanently. Contrary to expectations, prior war exposure does not moderate current settlement intentions, pointing to possible acclimatization or avoidance strategies among highly exposed individuals. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating both emotional and evaluative processes into sociological models of refugee decision-making. They also highlight how even after arrival in safety, evolving home-country violence continues to shape refugees’ settlement trajectories." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Oxford University Press) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Schwanhäuser, Silvia ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    What Drives Overstay? The Case of Afghan Asylum Seekers in Germany (2026)

    Méango, Romuald; Poinas, François;

    Zitatform

    Méango, Romuald & François Poinas (2026): What Drives Overstay? The Case of Afghan Asylum Seekers in Germany. In: Journal of the European Economic Association. DOI:10.1093/jeea/jvag012

    Abstract

    "The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention tooverstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Wenn Bürokratie zur Hürde wird: Wie Eingewanderte die administrativen Verfahren in Deutschland bewerten (2026)

    Reinold, Julia ; Hallyburton, Jasmin; Goßner, Laura ;

    Zitatform

    Reinold, Julia, Laura Goßner & Jasmin Hallyburton (2026): Wenn Bürokratie zur Hürde wird: Wie Eingewanderte die administrativen Verfahren in Deutschland bewerten. In: IAB-Forum H. 02.07.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260702.01

    Abstract

    "Die Beantragung einer Aufenthaltserlaubnis, die Anerkennung von Ausbildungs- und Hochschulabschlüssen, der Erwerb der deutschen Staatsbürgerschaft: Eingewanderte sind hierzulande mit teils sehr langwierigen bürokratischen Prozessen konfrontiert. Aktuellen Befragungsergebnissen des IAB zufolge machen viele dabei negative Erfahrungen unterschiedlichster Art. Fast ein Drittel derjenigen, die Deutschland wieder verlassen, begründet dies auch mit diesen Erfahrungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Reinold, Julia ; Hallyburton, Jasmin; Goßner, Laura ;

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  • Literaturhinweis

    10 Jahre Fluchtmigration 2015: Haben wir es geschafft? Eine Analyse aus Sicht des Arbeitsmarktes (2025)

    Brücker, Herbert ; Jaschke, Philipp ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ;

    Zitatform

    Brücker, Herbert, Philipp Jaschke & Yuliya Kosyakova (2025): 10 Jahre Fluchtmigration 2015: Haben wir es geschafft? Eine Analyse aus Sicht des Arbeitsmarktes. (IAB-Kurzbericht 17/2025), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2517

    Abstract

    "Die Frage, ob „wir es geschafft haben“, lässt sich angesichts der vielschichtigen Dimensionen von Integration und unklarer Erfolgskriterien nicht eindeutig beantworten. Dieser IAB-Kurzbericht beleuchtet die Arbeitsmarktintegration der 2015 zugezogenen Geflüchteten – einen zentralen Indikator wirtschaftlicher und sozialer Teilhabe. Daten der IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten verknüpft mit der Beschäftigungsstatistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit zeigen: Die Beschäftigungsquoten der 2015 zugezogenen Geflüchteten haben sich weitgehend dem Niveau des Bevölkerungsdurchschnitts in Deutschland angenähert. Bei den Verdiensten besteht jedoch weiterhin ein deutlicher Rückstand." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Brücker, Herbert ; Jaschke, Philipp ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Secondary Migration Intentions of Refugees Living in Germany: Conference paper (2025)

    Fortunato, Cecilia ; Ambrosetti, Elena ; Dietrich, Hans ;

    Zitatform

    Fortunato, Cecilia, Hans Dietrich & Elena Ambrosetti (2025): Secondary Migration Intentions of Refugees Living in Germany. Conference paper. In: A. Pollice & P. Mariani (Eds.) (2025): Methodological and Applied Statistics and Demography IV, S. 33-39. DOI:10.1007/978-3-031-64447-4_6

    Abstract

    "A crucial topic in Migration Studies is the exploration of refugees and other migrants’ mobility aspirations and behaviors over the life course. Beyond micro-trajectories and individual characteristics, a central role is played by the uncertainty connected to political, social and cultural contexts and to structural conditions both in native and host country. Using original data from the Refugee Sample of the German Socio-Economic Panel and performing logistic regression analyses, we investigate the intention to stay in Germany permanently, the intention to leave and the uncertainty about future mobility choices of 7,134 adult refugees arrived from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Eritrea and Iran after 2011. For what concerns conditions in destination, in line with previous studies, we found that factors shaping onward migration or return intention are mainly related to labor market integration and mismatch with qualification and linguistic integration, along with family members’ place of residence. Nevertheless, the main contribution of this paper can be claimed for the relevant role played by soft indicators such as wellbeing measures, worries and concerns about the future, triggering uncertainty in refugees’ mobility choices linked to conditions in origin country, legal and policy evolution and public discourses about ethnic minorities in destination country." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Dietrich, Hans ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    The Downfall of Assad: Syrian Refugees’ Settlement Intentions after the Unexpected Regime Change (2025)

    Hammer, Luisa ; Wagner, Simon ; Kassam, Kamal ; Koch, Theresa; Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Olbrich, Lukas ; Gallegos Torres, Katia ;

    Zitatform

    Hammer, Luisa, Kamal Kassam, Yuliya Kosyakova, Katia Gallegos Torres, Lukas Olbrich, Theresa Koch & Simon Wagner (2025): The Downfall of Assad: Syrian Refugees’ Settlement Intentions after the Unexpected Regime Change. (IAB-Discussion Paper 09/2025), Nürnberg, 31 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.DP.2509

    Abstract

    "Am 8. Dezember 2024 veränderte der plötzliche Zusammenbruch des Regimes von Bashar al‑Assad die politische Landschaft Syriens und die Rückkehraussichten für Millionen von im Ausland lebenden Syrern abrupt. Wir nutzen diesen unerwarteten Regimewechsel als natürliches Experiment, um die kausalen Auswirkungen der Entwicklungen im Heimatland auf die Ansiedlungs‑und Rückkehrabsichten von Flüchtlingen zu schätzen. Auf der Grundlage neuartiger Umfragedaten aus Deutschland, die nur wenige Tage vor dem Sturz Assads erhoben wurden, stellen wir fest, dass der Zusammenbruch des Regimes die Ansiedlungsabsichten der Syrer in Deutschland erheblich beeinflusste. Befragte, die danach befragt wurden, äußerten eher temporäre Niederlassungsabsichten, gaben eher an, Auswanderungsüberlegungen zu haben, und äußerten eher Unsicherheit über ihre Zukunft in Deutschland. Wir finden jedoch keine Auswirkungen auf konkrete kurzfristige Auswanderungspläne, was darauf hindeutet, dass die erhöhten Rückkehrwünsche eher zukunftsorientierte Absichten als unmittelbare Verhaltensänderungen widerspiegeln. Weitere Analysen zeigen, dass Rechtssicherheit in Deutschland und eine schwächere soziale oder emotionale Integration mit einer stärkeren Präferenz für einen vorübergehenden Aufenthalt korrelieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Hammer, Luisa ; Wagner, Simon ; Kassam, Kamal ; Koch, Theresa; Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Olbrich, Lukas ; Gallegos Torres, Katia ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Staying, Leaving, or Returning? Conflict Resolution Preferences and Migration Among Ukrainian Women (2025)

    Kogan, Irena ; Tubergen, Frank van ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ;

    Zitatform

    Kogan, Irena, Yuliya Kosyakova & Frank van Tubergen (2025): Staying, Leaving, or Returning? Conflict Resolution Preferences and Migration Among Ukrainian Women. In: Studies of transition states and societies, Jg. 17, S. 117-145., 2025-06-16. DOI:10.58036/stss.v17i0.1336

    Abstract

    "Little is known in the literature about non-economic factors that might shape migrant selectivity. This study examines how preferences for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict relate to the migration patterns and intentions of Ukrainians following the Russian full-scale aggression. Drawing on the concepts of place utility and migration decision-making models, we analyze data from the OneUA survey, which was collected around six months after Russia’s full-scale invasion among almost 25,000 Ukrainian women residing in Ukraine and abroad. Our results, based on a series of logistic regressions, suggest that Ukrainian women favoring a military solution to the conflict are more likely to remain in their pre-war residence in Ukraine rather than being internally displaced (i.e., IDP) or moving abroad (i.e., refugees). Moreover, among women forced to leave the country as refugees, those who favor a military solution exhibit a stronger intention to return. Conversely, among women still in Ukraine, those who favour a military solution less are more likely to consider international migration. Our study advances research on self-selection into migration based on non-economic factors, emphasising the role of political perceptions in displacement and resettlement patterns in conflict-affected regions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Lebenssituation und Teilhabe ukrainischer Geflüchteter in Deutschland: Ergebnisse der IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung (2025)

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Biddle, Louise ; Gatskova, Kseniia ; Siegert, Manuel ; Sommer, Elena; Rother, Nina ; Bartig, Susanne; Koch, Theresa; Büsche, Matteo Jacques; Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Cumming, Philippa; Marchitto, Andrea; Zinn, Sabine ; Zinn, Sabine ; Cardozo Silva, Adriana; Rother, Nina ; Schwanhäuser, Silvia ; Tanis, Kerstin ; Eckhard, Jan ; Süttmann, Felix;

    Zitatform

    Kosyakova, Yuliya, Nina Rother & Sabine Zinn (Hrsg.); Bartig, Susanne, Louise Biddle, Matteo Jacques Büsche, Adriana Cardozo Silva, Philippa Cumming, Jan Eckhard, Kseniia Gatskova, Theresa Koch, Yuliya Kosyakova, Andrea Marchitto, Silvia Schwanhäuser, Manuel Siegert, Elena Sommer, Felix Süttmann, Kerstin Tanis, Nina Rother & Sabine Zinn (2025): Lebenssituation und Teilhabe ukrainischer Geflüchteter in Deutschland: Ergebnisse der IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 05/2025 (de)), Nürnberg, 127 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2505

    Abstract

    "Hintergrund der Studie und Datengrundlage: - Die russische Invasion der Ukraine hat seit dem 24. Februar 2022 eine massive Fluchtbewegung ausgelöst, bei der überwiegend Frauen und Kinder in europäische Länder, einschließlich Deutschland, geflüchtet sind. Rund eine Million Menschen aus der Ukraine leben inzwischen in Deutschland. - Um die Lebenssituation dieser Menschen differenziert und fundiert erfassen zu können, ist eine robuste Datenbasis unerlässlich. Hochwertige, belastbare Daten, die auf einem sorgfältig entwickelten Erhebungsdesign beruhen, sind entscheidend, um die Herausforderungen und Bedarfe der geflüchteten Menschen adäquat zu analysieren und evidenzbasierte Maßnahmen ableiten zu können. - Die IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung erfüllt diese hohen Anforderungen. Als jährliche Panel-Haushaltsbefragung umfasst sie seit 2023 auch ukrainische Geflüchtete und schafft damit die Grundlage für eine empirisch fundierte Analyse ihrer Lebensrealitäten. Die Betrachtung zweier Zuzugskohorten (Zuzug von Februar bis Ende Mai 2022 und Zuzug ab Juni 2022) erlaubt zudem die Analyse von Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung der Gruppe ukrainischer Geflüchteter. - Die Befragung, die zwischen Juli 2023 und Anfang Januar 2024 stattfand, erfolgte primär durch persönlich-mündliche Interviews (77,2 Prozent der Interviews), ergänzt durch rechnergestützte Selbstinterviews (computer assisted self interview, 15,4 Prozent) und Online-Befragungen (computer assisted web interview, 7,4 Prozent). Insgesamt wurden 3.403 Personen aus 2.219 Haushalten befragt. - Die Daten umfassen sowohl die Haushalts- als auch Personenebene mit Inhalten zu Lebenssituation, Sprache, Erwerbssituation, Integration und Bleibeabsichten. Erstbefragte beantworteten zusätzlich einen Lebenslauffragebogen. - Stichproben- und Gewichtungsverfahren auf der Grundlage des Ausländerzentralregisters (AZR) stellen die Repräsentativität der Daten für ukrainische Geflüchtete im Erhebungszeitraum sicher. - Die IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ist ein gemeinsames Projekt des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung (IAB), des Forschungszentrums des Bundesamtes für Migration und Flüchtlinge (BAMF-FZ) und des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) am DIW Berlin." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Gatskova, Kseniia ; Koch, Theresa; Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Schwanhäuser, Silvia ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Germany as a stopover? Insights into return and International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) (2025)

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Wagner, Simon ; Gallegos Torres, Katia ; Hammer, Luisa ; Koch, Theresa; Olbrich, Lukas ;

    Zitatform

    Kosyakova, Yuliya, Lukas Olbrich, Katia Gallegos Torres, Luisa Hammer, Theresa Koch & Simon Wagner (2025): Germany as a stopover? Insights into return and International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa). (IAB-Forschungsbericht 15/2025 (en)), Nürnberg, 92 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2515en

    Abstract

    "Temporary migration of people who have immigrated to Germany is a frequently observed phenomenon, and the trend is rising. Between 2014 and 2023, the average emigration rate among foreign nationals ranged from 6 to 11 percent, depending on the data source. At the same time, Germany requires a net annual immigration of around 400,000 people to stabilize its labor force potential. The high mobility propensity among immigrants can challenge this goal - with far-reaching consequences for securing skilled labor, integration, and the long-term viability of the welfare state. To gain robust insights into the causes, patterns, and effects of mobility, the International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) has been established as a new longitudinal online survey. It includes first-time surveys every two years, complemented by annual follow-up surveys over a four-year period. In the first wave (December 2024 to April 2025), around 50,000 immigrants participated. The first follow-up survey is scheduled for the second half of 2025. Using statistical weighting procedures, the data allow for representative statements about individuals in Germany who immigrated by April 2, 2024, are registered in the data of the Federal Employment Agency (e.g. via employment, benefit receipt, or participation in labor market programs), and are in working age (18 to 65 years). Key findings from the first wave indicate: A narrow majority of immigrants (57 percent, roughly 5.7 million people) plan to stay in Germany permanently. Around 1.2 million (12 percent) aim for a temporary stay, and roughly 3 million (30 percent) remain uncertain. About 2.6 million people (26 percent) reported having considered leaving Germany in the last 12 months; approximately 300,000 (3 percent) already have concrete emigration plans - split roughly equally between return migration and onward migration. Given Germany's structural need for skilled labor, the political priority in migration policy is shifting: not only immigration, but also the long-term retention of immigrants is becoming a key challenge. The data reveal that emigration intentions vary widely. Those intending to return primarily target European countries such as Poland or Romania but also Turkey, while onward migrants tend to prefer Switzerland, the United States, or Spain. Motivations also differ: family reasons dominate returns to the country of origin, while economic opportunities play a key role in onward migration. Main reasons for emigration considerations include political dissatisfaction, personal preferences, tax burdens, and bureaucracy. These motives are present among labor migrants, education- and family-based migrants alike; refugees also frequently cite discrimination as a major reason. Overall, the findings suggest that state measures such as reducing bureaucracy, simplifying administrative procedures, and offering tax incentives could help lower emigration intentions. Regarding sociodemographic and migration-specific factors, the IMPa results highlight their central role in shaping emigration intentions. Men report higher rates of temporary stay intentions, emigration considerations, and concrete migration plans than women. Region of origin and reason for migration significantly influence mobility patterns: refugees and individuals with family reunification backgrounds express considerably lower emigration tendencies, while migrants from EU countries and those who came for work or education show higher mobility. Furthermore, immigrants with permanent residence status or EU/German citizenship are more likely to consider leaving - probably due to broader legal mobility options. The IMPa results highlight that labor market factors and economic integration also play a critical but nuanced role in shaping emigration intentions. Education emerges as a key predictor: highly educated individuals more frequently express thoughts of leaving or make concrete plans than those with lower educational levels. Qualifications obtained in Germany or third countries - as well as foreign qualifications recognized in Germany - are more strongly associated with emigration considerations, likely due to their higher international transferability. Employed individuals are more likely to report temporary stay intentions than those who are not employed or are in training. Sectors where the outmigration risk among immigrants is particularly high-such as IT and technical services-are also those facing significant skilled labor shortages. Furthermore, it is notable that in other sectors vulnerable to labor shortages-such as healthcare, construction, public administration, or retail-, emigration tendencies are not above average, but they are still relevant. Higher incomes are also associated with stronger emigration considerations and plans, which indicates that migrants who are particularly well integrated into the labor market want to leave Germany again. Another important factor is job satisfaction: the less satisfied individuals are with their work, the more frequently they express temporary intentions to stay, thoughts of emigration, and concrete emigration plans. Job satisfaction thus acts as a stabilizing factor. Language skills show differentiated effects: while descriptive findings suggest that individuals with poor German skills have lower intentions to stay permanently and higher mobility plans, multivariate analyses indicate that good German skills are associated with increased mobility. Good English skills also tend to increase emigration intentions, likely due to better international labor market options. Social integration and societal participation are also crucial: family ties in Germany and regular contact with German nationals have a stabilizing effect. A strong emotional attachment to Germany stabilizes the intention to stay, whereas a strong connection to the country of origin increases the likelihood of emigration. A strong subjective sense of welcome and low perceptions of discrimination significantly reduce the probability of emigration considerations and plans. Conversely, perceptions of discrimination - especially in interactions with authorities, police, and at the workplace - greatly increases emigration tendencies. Political dissatisfaction also significantly raises the likelihood of emigration-related thoughts and plans. In summary, emigration intentions do not arise randomly but are the result of a complex interplay of individual characteristics, social integration, economic anchoring, and perceived societal acceptance. One of the central findings of the IMPa survey is that those who came to Germany for work or education, better educated, more economically successful, and more linguistically integrated are the ones most likely to consider leaving or already have concrete plans to do so. In other words: those most urgently needed to secure Germany's future labor supply are also those most inclined to leave. This selective mobility endangers the country's long-term ability to retain skilled labor. It is therefore essential to offer this group a meaningful perspective and to position Germany not only as a place of immigration but as a country in which people want to stay and build their future. This includes faster and more transparent recognition of qualifications, a determined reduction of bureaucratic hurdles, family-friendly integration policies, and targeted measures against everyday and workplace discrimination. Only when immigrants feel like fully included members of society - with real opportunities for participation and professional advancement - are they likely to choose Germany as their long-term home and pursue both personal and professional goals here. So far, only about one fifth of those with emigration plans have taken concrete steps towards leaving. At the same time, roughly one fifth express a long-term wish to return to Germany, one third rule it out, and about half remain undecided. This means that around two thirds of those considering emigration are potentially open to returning in the future. Activating and supporting this return potential could become a valuable component of Germany's strategic labor policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Wagner, Simon ; Gallegos Torres, Katia ; Hammer, Luisa ; Koch, Theresa; Olbrich, Lukas ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Bleibe- und Rückkehrabsichten von Geduldeten: Erkenntnisse aus einem Umfrageexperiment mit westafrikanischen Schutzsuchenden (2025)

    Stache, Randy; Johnson, Lisa; Peitz, Laura; Carwehl, Anne-Kathrin ;

    Zitatform

    Stache, Randy, Lisa Johnson, Laura Peitz & Anne-Kathrin Carwehl (2025): Bleibe- und Rückkehrabsichten von Geduldeten. Erkenntnisse aus einem Umfrageexperiment mit westafrikanischen Schutzsuchenden. (BAMF-Kurzanalyse / Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge 2025,02), Nürnberg, 19 S. DOI:10.48570/bamf.fz.ka.02/2025.d.2025.bleibrueckabsicht.1.0

    Abstract

    "Die BAMF-Kurzanalyse 02|2025 beleuchtet die Bleibe- und Rückkehrabsichten geduldeter Menschen in Deutschland und gibt Einblicke in individuelle Entscheidungsprozesse. Um herauszufinden, unter welchen Umständen geduldete Menschen in Deutschland bleiben oder in ihr Herkunftsland zurückkehren wollen, wurde ein innovatives Umfrageexperiment – eine Vignettenstudie – mit Geduldeten aus Nigeria, Ghana, Gambia und Sierra Leone durchgeführt und die Ergebnisse mit Erkenntnissen aus qualitativen Interviews verknüpft. Die Kurzanalyse ist aus dem Projekt "Machbarkeitsstudie: Im-/Mobilität ausreisepflichtiger Personen in Deutschland" (MIMAP) hervorgegangen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Asylpolitik: Wie geht es mit den syrischen Geflüchteten in Deutschland weiter? (2025)

    Weber, Enzo ;

    Zitatform

    Weber, Enzo (2025): Asylpolitik: Wie geht es mit den syrischen Geflüchteten in Deutschland weiter? In: Makronom H. 05.02.2025.

    Abstract

    "Der Umsturz in Syrien hat eine Debatte über die Zukunft der Geflüchteten in Deutschland ausgelöst. Wie könnte eine kluge Asylpolitik aussehen, die sowohl Integration als auch Rückkehrperspektiven sinnvoll gestaltet? Ein Beitrag von Enzo Weber." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Weber, Enzo ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Asylpolitik: Perspektiven in Deutschland für syrische Geflüchtete schaffen (2025)

    Weber, Enzo ;

    Zitatform

    Weber, Enzo (2025): Asylpolitik: Perspektiven in Deutschland für syrische Geflüchtete schaffen. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 105, H. 1. DOI:10.2478/wd-2025-0003

    Abstract

    Dem Umsturz in Syrien folgte auf dem Fuße eine polarisierte Debatte in Deutschland: Muss die neue Lage sofort genutzt werden, um möglichst viele Geflüchtete loszuwerden? Oder bricht ohne sie der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt zusammen? Ein Blick auf die Fakten: Die Beschäftigung von Syrer:innen in Deutschland ist über die Zeit deutlich gestiegen. In sozialversicherungspflichtigen Jobs waren es nach Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit – ohne Eingebürgerte – zuletzt knapp 240.000, in Minijobs 50.000. Die häufigsten Berufe liegen in der Logistik, Produktion, Gesundheit sowie im Handel und Gastgewerbe.

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Weber, Enzo ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    The Effect of Conflict on Refugees’ Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine (2024)

    Adema, Joop; Aksoy, Cevat Giray ; Giesing, Yvonne ; Poutvaara, Panu ;

    Zitatform

    Adema, Joop, Cevat Giray Aksoy, Yvonne Giesing & Panu Poutvaara (2024): The Effect of Conflict on Refugees’ Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16962), Bonn, 82 S.

    Abstract

    "What is the causal effect of conflict on refugees' return and integration? To answer this question, we launched a panel survey of Ukrainian refugees across Europe in June 2022 and combined it with geocoded conflict data. Most refugees plan to return, and initial return intentions strongly predict actual return. Those who initially plan to settle outside Ukraine integrate faster. Increased conflict intensity in the home municipality discourages return there, but not to Ukraine as a whole. It also has no effect on the likelihood of working. Liberation of the home district increases return, while increased pessimism about the outcome of the war reduces return intentions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Geflüchtete senden seltener Geld ins Ausland als andere Migrant*innen (2024)

    Silva, Adriana Cardozo; Zinn, Sabine ;

    Zitatform

    Silva, Adriana Cardozo & Sabine Zinn (2024): Geflüchtete senden seltener Geld ins Ausland als andere Migrant*innen. In: DIW-Wochenbericht, Jg. 91, H. 49, S. 771-779. DOI:10.18723/diw_wb:2024-49-1

    Abstract

    "Über Geldüberweisungen von Geflüchteten in ihre Heimat wurde in den vergangenen Jahren in Deutschland politisch scharf debattiert, was zur Einführung einer Bezahlkarte für Asylbewerber*innen führte. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht, wie sich der Anteil der in Deutschland lebenden Personen, die Geld ins Ausland überweisen, im Laufe der Zeit je nach Migrationshintergrund – mit oder ohne Fluchthintergrund – verändert hat und welche Faktoren die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Geldsendungen beeinflussen. Basierend auf den Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) sowie den IAB-SOEP-Migrationsstichproben und der IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung Geflüchteter von 2013 bis 2022 zeigt die Untersuchung, dass Migrant*innen ohne Fluchthintergrund häufiger Geldtransfers tätigen, während Geflüchtete aufgrund struktureller Barrieren seltener dazu in der Lage sind. Die politische Debatte spiegelt also nicht die Realität wider. Über die Wahrscheinlichkeit, Geldüberweisungen ins Ausland zu tätigen, entscheiden insbesondere die Familiensituation und die Absicht, längerfristig in Deutschland zu bleiben. Die Ergebnisse sollten auch insofern zu einer Neubewertung beitragen, als diese Geldüberweisungen ein wichtiges Instrument zur Erreichung der nachhaltigen Entwicklungsziele darstellen und die Wirtschaft in den Herkunftsländern stabilisieren und Armut reduzieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Weiterführende Informationen

    English Version
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Return intentions among Ukrainian refugees in Europe: A Cross-National Study (2024)

    Tubergen, Frank van ; Wachter, Gusta G. ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Kogan, Irena ;

    Zitatform

    Tubergen, Frank van, Gusta G. Wachter, Yuliya Kosyakova & Irena Kogan (2024): Return intentions among Ukrainian refugees in Europe: A Cross-National Study. In: International Migration, Jg. 62, H. 5, S. 181-198., 2024-05-28. DOI:10.1111/imig.13291

    Abstract

    "This study examines the return intentions of Ukrainian refugee women who fled to various European countries following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By analysing data from the cross-national OneUA survey, which included over 18,000 respondents in eight European countries, this research investigates the interplay of contextual, compositional, and cross-level interaction effects on their intentions to return to Ukraine. Our findings reveal notable country differences in return intentions, with Ukrainian women in the Netherlands and Germany displaying the lowest intentions to return, while those in Moldova and Romania showing the highest. Individual-level effects, encompassing factors such as level of education, language skills, partnership status, and region of origin play a significant role in shaping return intentions, yet do not explain the observed country variations. Furthermore, we find that individual-level effects are remarkably consistent across different European countries, suggesting that country- and individual-level conditions independently shape return intentions. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the complexities underlying refugees' return intentions, shedding light on both the broad influences of country context and the significance of individual characteristics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Kosyakova, Yuliya ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Determinants of Intended Return Migration among Refugees: A Comparison of Syrian Refugees in Germany and Turkey (2023)

    Al Husein, Nawras; Wagner, Natascha ;

    Zitatform

    Al Husein, Nawras & Natascha Wagner (2023): Determinants of Intended Return Migration among Refugees: A Comparison of Syrian Refugees in Germany and Turkey. In: International migration review, Jg. 57, H. 4, S. 1771-1805. DOI:10.1177/01979183221142780

    Abstract

    "Little is known about whether Syrian refugees intend to return to their origin-country and what affects their return migration intentions. We introduce a theoretical framework for voluntary return, identify the refugees' decision-making context, and empirically assess the model with a sample of 577 Syrian refugees living in Germany and Turkey in 2018. Three return scenarios were presented in the survey: (i) returning to Syria within two years, (ii) returning when Syria is as safe as before the civil war, and (iii) ever returning. The three scenarios were conceived very differently by the refugees, highlighting the dynamic nature and context dependency of the concept of voluntary return. Syrian refugees in Turkey were more likely to regard their stay as temporary (76 percent), compared to those in Germany (55 percent, p-value of difference = .000). Similarly, structural factors of the origin- and host-countries, that is, the origin-governorate and the current location, were considerably influencing return intentions. Concerning individual factors, female and highly educated refugees had a lower willingness to return. Those who were married were less inclined to return in the short run, yet refugees who self-identified as poor indicated their desired return in the long run. We also analyzed whether random exposure to information regarding return impacted refugees' intentions. We found a negative, albeit insignificant, impact of information, suggesting that host governments cannot expect (rapid) information dissemination to impact refugees' decision-making about voluntary return. Our findings underscore that neither proximate nor distant host-countries should bank on the speedy return of the Syrian refugees." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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