Digitale Arbeitswelt – Chancen und Herausforderungen für Beschäftigte und Arbeitsmarkt
Der digitale Wandel der Arbeitswelt gilt als eine der großen Herausforderungen für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Wie arbeiten wir in Zukunft? Welche Auswirkungen hat die Digitalisierung und die Nutzung Künstlicher Intelligenz auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitsmarkt? Welche Qualifikationen werden künftig benötigt? Wie verändern sich Tätigkeiten und Berufe? Welche arbeits- und sozialrechtlichen Konsequenzen ergeben sich daraus?
Dieses Themendossier dokumentiert Forschungsergebnisse zum Thema in den verschiedenen Wirtschaftsbereichen und Regionen.
Im Filter „Autorenschaft“ können Sie auf IAB-(Mit-)Autorenschaft eingrenzen.
- Gesamtbetrachtungen/Positionen
- Arbeitsformen, Arbeitszeit und Gesundheit
- Qualifikationsanforderungen und Berufe
- Arbeitsplatz- und Beschäftigungseffekte
- Wirtschaftsbereiche
- Arbeits- und sozialrechtliche Aspekte / digitale soziale Sicherung
- Deutschland
- Andere Länder/ internationaler Vergleich
- Besondere Personengruppen
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Literaturhinweis
New Technology, Older Workers: How Workplace Technology is Associated with Indicators of Job Retention (2026)
Zitatform
Abrams, Leah, Daniel Schneider & Kristen Harknett (2026): New Technology, Older Workers: How Workplace Technology is Associated with Indicators of Job Retention. In: Journal of Aging & Social Policy, Jg. 38, H. 4, S. 635-651. DOI:10.1080/08959420.2025.2523122
Abstract
"Middle-aged and older adults who are employed in precarious, high-strain jobs may face challenges to continued work, risking economic insecurity and poor wellbeing in retirement. Technology in the workplace, an under-studied aspect of work environments, could accommodate aging workers or could add stress to their jobs. This study examines how technology in sales and surveillance at work are related to job satisfaction and planned job exits among approximately 6,000 workers aged 50–69 employed in the low-wage service sector (e.g. retail, pharmacy, grocery, hardware, fast food, casual dining, delivery, and hotel). On-the-job surveillance was related to lower job satisfaction and higher reports of looking for a new job, especially when combined with sanctioning for slow speed of work. However, rewards for speed, and to a lesser extent the use of leaderboards, were associated with higher job satisfaction, demonstrating the potential of technology to enhance the work experience for older employees. The use of sales technologies was not associated with job satisfaction or intentions to look for a new job. These results provide a uniquely detailed portrait of prevailing labor market conditions for aging workers in the service sector and demonstrate how certain kinds of technology matter for older workers ’ employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Automation and Polarization (2026)
Zitatform
Acemoglu, Daron & Jonas Löbbing (2026): Automation and Polarization. In: Journal of Political Economy, Jg. 134, H. 3, S. 1017-1072. DOI:10.1086/739330
Abstract
"We develop an assignment model of automation. Each of a continuum of tasks of variable complexity is assigned to either capital or one of a continuum of labor skills. We characterize conditions for interiorautomation, whereby tasks of intermediate complexity are performed by capital. Interior automation arises when the most skilled workers have a comparative advantage in the most complex tasks relative to capital, and when the wages of the least skilled workers are sufficiently low relative to both their own productivity and the effective cost of capital in low-complexity tasks. Minimum wages and other sourcesof higher wages at the bottom make interior automation less likely. Starting with interior automation, a reduction in the cost of capital (or an increase in capital productivity) causes employment and wage polarization. Specifically, further automation pushes workers into tasks at the lower and upper ends ofthe task distribution. It also monotonically increases the skill premium above a threshold and reduces the skill premium below this threshold. Moreover, automation tends to reduce the real wage of Workers with comparative advantage profiles close to that of capital. We show that large enough increases in capital productivity ultimately induce a transition to low-skill automation and qualitatively alter the effects of automation—thereafter inducing monotone increases in skill premia rather than wage polarization." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Who uses Generative AI? Patterns and inequalities across the EU: Employment and labour markets (2026)
Zitatform
Adăscăliței, Dragoș (2026): Who uses Generative AI? Patterns and inequalities across the EU. Employment and labour markets. (Eurofound working paper), Dublin, 19 S.
Abstract
"This paper describes generative AI use patterns across EU27 Member States in 2025, analysing crossnational variation and socio-demographic inequalities based on Eurostat aggregate data. Overall use of generative AI reaches 32.7% at the EU27 level, ranging from 17.8% in Romania to 48.4% in Denmark. Country patterns do not follow clear geographic clustering, with high and low adopters distributed across all European regions. Private use systematically exceeds professional use, whilst educational use remains concentrated among young populations. Educational attainment emerges as a strong predictor of AI use, with high-educated individuals using generative AI at more than double the rate of low-educated individuals. Age is also a strong predictor, with 63.8% of those aged 16-24 having used generative AI in the past three months compared to just 6.5% of those aged 65 and above. The gender gaps in AI use are moderate but widen with education. In terms of broad occupational groups, the analysis demonstrates that uptake is heavily skewed towards ICT professions. Labour force status also matters decisively, with students (72.0%) far exceeding employed (36.4%), unemployed (28.3%), and retired/inactive populations (12.9%) in technology usage. These patterns reveal stratified diffusion of generative AI use with implications for labour market inequalities across the EU." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics (2026)
Zitatform
Afrouzi, Hassan, Andres Blanco, Andrés Drenik & Erik Hurst (2026): Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 35157), Cambridge, Mass, 58 S.
Abstract
"We study how an automating technology affects career dynamics, human capital, and welfare in an economy where workers acquire skill through the tasks they perform. In a continuous-time general equilibrium model, learning-by-doing is determined jointly with the share of tasks automated, the frontier of tasks managers maintain, and the worker-to-manager career transition. Economies with high learning capacity admit pairs of stationary equilibria strictly ranked by the aggregate learning rate. Cheaper technology has opposite effects across the two: in the high-learning equilibrium, it raises welfare through the learning channel itself; in the low-learning equilibrium, it tips the economy into a human-capital trap. The planner's first-best combines a tax on automation profits with a subsidy on frontier-maintenance expenditures at a common rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Enhancing Worker Productivity Without Automating Tasks: A Different Approach to AI and the Task-Based Model (2026)
Zitatform
Agrawal, Ajay K., John McHale & Alexander Oettl (2026): Enhancing Worker Productivity Without Automating Tasks: A Different Approach to AI and the Task-Based Model. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 34781), Cambridge, Mass, 44 S.
Abstract
"The task-based approach has become the dominant framework for studying the labor-market effects of artificial intelligence (AI), typically emphasizing the replacement of human workers by machines. Motivated by growing empirical evidence that contemporary AI is more often used as a tool that augments workers, this paper develops two related task-based models in which AI enhances worker productivity without automating tasks. Abstracting from capital, we develop a pair of related task-based models that examine how technological progress in AI that provides new tools to augment workers affects aggregate productivity and wage inequality. Both models emphasize the role of human capital in intermediating the effects of AI-related technological shocks. In the first model, AI use requires specialized expertise, and technological progress expands the set of tasks for which such expertise is effective. We show that a larger supply of AI expertise amplifies the productivity gains from improvements in AI technology while attenuating its adverse effects on wage inequality. The second model focuses on non-AI skills, allowing AI tools to alter the set of tasks that workers can perform given their skills. In equilibrium, workers allocate across tasks in response to wages, generating an endogenous distribution of skills across the task space. A central result is that aggregate productivity and wage inequality depend on different global properties of this equilibrium distribution: productivity is particularly sensitive to thinly staffed tasks that create bottlenecks, while wage inequality is driven by the concentration of workers in a narrow set of tasks. As a result, improvements in AI tools can induce non-monotonic co-movement between productivity and inequality. By linking these mechanisms to multidimensional human capital---including AI expertise and higher-order non-AI skills---the paper highlights the role of education and training policies in shaping the economic consequences of AI-driven technological change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Do AI Expectations Reduce Unemployment in the United States? Evidence from an AI Attention Index (2026)
Akyildirim, Erdinc; Gozgor, Giray; Bekci, Suzan;Zitatform
Akyildirim, Erdinc, Suzan Bekci & Giray Gozgor (2026): Do AI Expectations Reduce Unemployment in the United States? Evidence from an AI Attention Index. (CESifo working paper 12653), München, 13 S.
Abstract
"This paper constructs an AI Attention Index from LexisNexis news coverage and embeds it within an augmented Phillips curve framework. It then examines the relationship between AI attention and unemployment in the United States using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2025. We find that greater AI attention is associated with lower unemployment. Nonlinear estimates reveal a U-shaped relationship, indicating diminishing marginal effects within the observed data range. The relationship weakens after the onset of COVID-19, with both linear and nonlinear effects reduced. These findings indicate that labour market effects of AI-related expectations are sensitive to macroeconomic regime shifts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms (2026)
Aldasoro, Iñaki; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Pal, Rozalia; Wolski, Marcin; Weiß, Christoph; Revoltella, Debora;Zitatform
Aldasoro, Iñaki, Leonardo Gambacorta, Rozalia Pal, Debora Revoltella, Christoph Weiß & Marcin Wolski (2026): AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms. (Economics - working papers / European Investment Bank 2026/02), Luxembourg, 32 S. DOI:10.2867/1772538
Abstract
"This paper provides new evidence on how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) affects productivity and employment in Europe. Using matched EIBIS-ORBIS data on more than 12,000 non-financial firms in the European Union (EU) and United States (US), we instrument the adoption of AI by EU firms by assigning the adoption rates of US peers to isolate exogenous technological exposure. Our results show that AI adoption increases the level of labor productivity by 4%. Productivity gains are due to capital deepening, as we find no adverse effects on firm-level employment. This suggests that AI increases worker output rather than replacing labor in the short run, though longer-term effects remain uncertain. However, productivity benefits of AI adoption are unevenly distributed and concentrate in medium and large firms. Moreover, AI-adopting firms are more innovative and their workers earn higher wages. Our analysis also highlights the critical role of complementary investments in software and data or workforce training to fully unlock the productivity gains of AI adoption." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
auch erschienen als: BIS Working Papers, 1325 -
Literaturhinweis
The effect of AI on labour demand: A critical assessment of 'Power and Progress' by Acemoglu and Johnson (2026)
Aldred, Jonathan;Zitatform
Aldred, Jonathan (2026): The effect of AI on labour demand: A critical assessment of 'Power and Progress' by Acemoglu and Johnson. In: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Jg. 78, S. 188-196. DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2026.03.008
Abstract
"Task-based models of production have led to a theoretical reappraisal of the effect of new technology on labour demand. This paper critically assesses the policy implications of this research agenda, with particular reference to Acemoglu and Johnson’s recent book, Power and Progress. While Acemoglu and Johnson take welcome steps away from previous orthodoxy, their analysis has several flaws which affect the policy lessons to be drawn, including: (i) the explanation for anti-labour bias is unclear; (ii) worker-friendly technologies are not clearly characterised in theory, and hard to identify in practice; (iii) macroeconomic policy orthodoxy is largely unquestioned. More generally, much of Power and Progress remains unhelpfully constrained by theoretical commitments to mainstream economics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The end of work feels near. How do people perceive the impact of digital technologies and automation? (2026)
Zitatform
Arntz, Melanie, Sebastian Blesse & Philipp Doerrenberg (2026): The end of work feels near. How do people perceive the impact of digital technologies and automation? In: Labour Economics, Jg. 102, 2026-05-11. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102897
Abstract
"Anxieties about technological change in the context of the labor market are a recurring historical phenomenon. Using customized survey data collected in 2019 in the US and Germany, prior to the recent wave of generative AI applications, we study how respondents perceive the impact of the digital (automation) technologies available at the time of the survey on the labor market. We document that a majority views digital technologies and automation as a major threat to overall employment and as a cause of rising inequality, while a quarter is concerned about their own labor market prospects. Providing scientific information on the likely labor market implications of digital technologies in a randomized experiment reduces these concerns. Yet, treatment responses depend on prior beliefs about the future of work, resulting in heterogeneous and opposing treatment effects on policy demand." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Technologischer Wandel und Löhne: Die Anpassung der Berufe spielt eine entscheidende Rolle (2026)
Zitatform
Bachmann, Ronald, Gökay Demir, Colin Green & Arne Uhlendorff (2026): Technologischer Wandel und Löhne: Die Anpassung der Berufe spielt eine entscheidende Rolle. (IAB-Kurzbericht 01/2026), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2601
Abstract
"Technischer Fortschritt verändert die Arbeitswelt - besonders in Berufen, in denen viele Tätigkeiten leicht automatisiert werden können. In den letzten Jahrzehnten ist der Anteil an Routinetätigkeiten in vielen Berufen deutlich zurückgegangen - häufig zugunsten nicht routinemäßiger kognitiver Tätigkeiten wie Analysieren, Planen oder Beraten. Dabei verzeichnen Berufe, deren Tätigkeiten sich im Laufe der Zeit stärker an den technologischen Wandel angepasst haben, steigende Löhne. Sie zeichnen sich zudem durch intensivere Weiterbildungsaktivitäten aus. In Berufen, deren Tätigkeitsprofil sich kaum verändert hat, stagnieren die Löhne dagegen häufiger." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
- Vollzeitbeschäftigte westdeutsche Männer in ursprünglich routinelastigen Berufen
- Veränderung von Tätigkeitsschwerpunkten durch technologischen Wandel
- Veränderung im Anteil der Routinetätigkeiten
- Veränderung im Anteil der Routinetätigkeiten im Vergleich zu nicht routinemäßigen (NR) kognitiven Tätigkeiten in exemplarisch ausgewählten, ursprünglich routinelastigen Berufsfeldern
- Anteil Beschäftigter in Weiterbildungskursen nach Tätigkeitsgruppen
- Relatives Lohnwachstum nach Tätigkeitsgruppen
- Vollzeitbeschäftigte westdeutsche Männer nach Tätigkeitsgruppen
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Literaturhinweis
Technological progress, occupational structure and gender gaps in the German labour market (2026)
Zitatform
Bachmann, Ronald & Myrielle Gonschor (2026): Technological progress, occupational structure and gender gaps in the German labour market. In: International Journal of Manpower, Jg. 47, H. 2, S. 403-422. DOI:10.1108/ijm-10-2024-0711
Abstract
"Purpose: This study examines whether advances in technology and shifts in the occupational structure have enhanced women's position within the labour market. It answers the following research questions: First, how has the occupational employment structure evolved over the last decades, and how is this related to gender gaps? Second, which factors explain the gender gap and its narrowing over time? Design/methodology/approach: We use individual-level panel data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for West Germany over the period 1985–2017 and individual-level task data from the BIBB Employment survey. We use the task intensity of an occupation and the task group an occupation belongs to as proxies for technological change. To analyze explanatory factors, we use a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition. Findings: Women are increasingly engaging in non-routine manual and interactive occupations. The concurrent narrowing of the gender wage gap is attributable to declining gender wage gaps within task groups rather than between them. Observable factors, such as education have grown in importance to the gender wage gap, whereas the importance of unexplained factors has strongly declined. Technological change plays no significant role in the evolution of the gender wage gap. By contrast, part-time employment exerts a substantial influence on the gender wage gap. Originality/value: Our analysis includes part-time and high-skilled workers frequently excluded from other studies. The use of individual-level data combined with task information for occupations facilitates the examination of long-run developments such as technological change both between and within task groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How important are within‐occupation task changes for wage growth? Evidence from administrative micro data (2026)
Zitatform
Bachmann, Ronald, Gökay Demir, Colin Green & Arne Uhlendorff (2026): How important are within‐occupation task changes for wage growth? Evidence from administrative micro data. In: Economica, S. 1-40. DOI:10.1111/ecca.70054
Abstract
"We examine how changes in task content over time condition occupational wage development. Using survey data from Germany, we document substantial heterogeneity in within-occupation changes in task content. Combining this evidence with administrative data on individual employment outcomes over a 25-year period, we find important heterogeneity in wage penalties amongst jobs that were initially routine-task-intensive. While occupations that remain (relatively) routine-intensive generate substantial wage penalties, occupations with a decreasing routine intensity experience stable or even increasing wages. These findings suggest that changing task profiles of occupations is an important adaptation mechanism to technological change. They cannot be explained by composition or cohort effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Systematic literature review on the digital transformation of the personnel selection process (2026)
Zitatform
Baranyi, Virág (2026): Systematic literature review on the digital transformation of the personnel selection process. In: German Journal of Human Resource Management, Jg. 40, H. 2, S. 223-254. DOI:10.1177/23970022251363012
Abstract
"Digital Transformation technologies (DT technologies) are reshaping work processes, including personnel selection, an area traditionally viewed as inherently human-centric. While prior studies have examined various digital technologies in personnel selection, they have not provided sufficient evidence on the different levels of digitalization in selection processes and the factors influencing organizations’ adoption decisions. To address these gaps, this study systematically reviews 94 Scopus-indexed studies to analyze how DT technologies are applied across selection stages, categorizing practices into Manual, Digitalized, and Digitally Transformed approaches. By further distinguishing between Digital Technologies and AI Enhancements, this study offers a structured framework for understanding how organizations integrate digital technologies into selection and what drives or hinders their adoption. The findings highlight both the benefits (efficiency gains, potential bias reduction, improved candidate experience) and challenges (ethical concerns, algorithmic bias, technical and cultural barriers, and candidate perceptions) associated with these technologies, providing insights for both academic research and HR practice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Winners and losers when firms robotize: wage effects across occupations and education (2026)
Zitatform
Barth, Erling, Marianne Røed, Pål Schøne & Janis Umblijs (2026): Winners and losers when firms robotize: wage effects across occupations and education. In: The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Jg. 128, H. 1, S. 3-32. DOI:10.1111/sjoe.12593
Abstract
"This paper analyses the impact of robots on workers' wages in the manufacturing sector, with a particular focus on relative wages for workers with different levels of education and in different occupations. Using high-quality matched employer–employee register data with firm-level information on the introduction of industrial robots, we identify the effects of robotization on relative wages within firms. Skilled blue-collar workers with a vocational degree experience a decline in wages when firms introduce robots, while there are only small effects for the other groups of workers. These results suggest that robots are substitutes for tasks undertaken by skilled blue-collar workers in manufacturing, and furthermore that the adoption of robots contributes to a polarization of the labor market and a hollowing out of the wage distribution, rather than to skill-biased technical change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Automation Experiments and Inequality (2026)
Zitatform
Benzell, Seth Gordon & Kyle R. Myers (2026): Automation Experiments and Inequality. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 34668), Cambridge, Mass, 26 S., App. DOI:10.3386/w34668
Abstract
"Many experiments study the productivity effects of automation technologies such as generative algorithms. A key test in these experiments relates to inequality: does the technology increase output more for high- or low-skill workers? However, the theoretical content of this empirical test has been unclear. Here, we formalize a theory that describes the experimental effect of automation technologies on worker-level output and, therefore, inequality. Worker-level output depends on a task-level production function, and workers are heterogeneous in their task-level skills. Workers perform a task themselves or delegate it to the automation technology. The inequality effect of improved automation depends on the interaction of two factors: (i) the correlation in task-level skills across workers, and (ii) workers' skills relative to the technology's effective skill. In many cases we study, the inequality effect is non-monotonic --- as technologies improve, inequality decreases then increases. The model and descriptive statistics of skill correlations generally suggest that the diversity of automation technologies will play an important role in the evolution of inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Digital divide and income inequality: causal evidence from Italian provinces (2026)
Zitatform
Bergantino, Angela Stefania, Giulio Fusco, Mario Intini & Gianluca Monturano (2026): Digital divide and income inequality: causal evidence from Italian provinces. In: The Annals of Regional Science, Jg. 75, H. 1. DOI:10.1007/s00168-025-01440-z
Abstract
"The digital economy can function either as a catalyst to stimulate economic growth or else as a driver of socioeconomic inequality when its benefits are unevenly distributed. This study investigates the effect of rural digital connectivity on income inequality in Italy. Utilizing NUTS 3 panel data spanning 2014–2022, we conduct a counterfactual Difference-in-Differences approach with continuous treatment intensity to estimate the impact of introducing rural broadband coverage at speeds of 30 and 100 Mbps on multiple measures of income distribution, including the Gini, Theil, and Atkinson indices. The empirical framework incorporates a comprehensive set of socioeconomic controls, as well as provincial and time fixed effects, to account for unobserved heterogeneity and regional path dependencies. Our findings indicate that broadband expansion is significantly associated with increasing inequality, suggesting that access alone does not guarantee inclusive outcomes, particularly in localities characterized by structural fragility and limited human capital. Additional heterogeneity and spatial analyses demonstrate that these inequality effects are more evident in southern provinces and localities with a higher concentration of inner areas, where the digital divide remains more pronounced. These findings accentuate the dual role of digitalization and highlight the necessity of coordinated policy interventions that combine infrastructure investment with digital skills development, institutional capacity-building, and spatially integrated governance strategies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US: BPEA Conference Draft, March 26-27, 2026 (2026)
Zitatform
Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David J. Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US. BPEA Conference Draft, March 26-27, 2026. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Jg. Conference Draft, H. Spring, S. 1-70.
Abstract
"This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
- frühere (möglicherweise abweichende) Version erschienen u.d.T. "Mind the Gap: KI-Einführung in Europa und den USA" als: CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research, 21337
- frühere (möglicherweise abweichende) Version erschienen u.d.T. "Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US" als: RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series, 102/26
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Literaturhinweis
Mind the Gap: KI-Einführung in Europa und den USA (2026)
Zitatform
Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: KI-Einführung in Europa und den USA. (CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 21337), London, 80 S.
Abstract
"This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We find no clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
- spätere (möglicherweise abweichende) Version erschienen u.d.T. "Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US : BPEA Conference Draft, March 26-27, 2026" in: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Conference Draft (2026), 1-70
- auch erschienen u.d.T. "Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US" als: RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series, 102/26
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Literaturhinweis
Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US (2026)
Zitatform
Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US. (RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 102/26), Berlin, 71 S.
Abstract
"This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
- spätere (möglicherweise abweichende) Version erschienen u.d.T. "Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US : BPEA Conference Draft, March 26-27, 2026" in: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Conference Draft (2026), 1-70
- auch erschienen u.d.T. "Mind the Gap: KI-Einführung in Europa und den USA" als: CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research, 21337
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Literaturhinweis
Re‐Skilling in the Age of Skill Shortage: Adult Education Rather Than Active Labor Market Policy: Special Issue: Bringing the Ecological and the Social Together in the Green Transition: A Multilevel Analysis (2026)
Zitatform
Bonoli, Giuliano, Patrick Emmenegger & Alina Felder-Stindt (2026): Re‐Skilling in the Age of Skill Shortage: Adult Education Rather Than Active Labor Market Policy. Special Issue: Bringing the Ecological and the Social Together in the Green Transition: A Multilevel Analysis. In: Regulation and governance, Jg. 20, H. 2, S. 482-494. DOI:10.1111/rego.70065
Abstract
"European economies face the task of providing the necessary skills for the “twin transition ” in a period of skill shortage. As a result, we may expect countries to reorient their labor market policy towards re-skilling. We look for evidence of a reorientation in two relevant policy fields: active labor market policy (ALMP) and adult education (AE). We explore general trends in both fields based on quantitative indicators and compare recent policy developments in four countries with strong ALMP and AE sectors: Denmark, France, Germany, and Sweden. We do not observe clear evidence of a general movement away from activation and towards re-skilling in ALMP. However, in AE, we identify several re-skilling initiatives that address skill shortages. Relying on insights from queuing theories of hiring and training, we argue that due to changes in the population targeted by ALMP, the locus of re-skilling policy is increasingly moving towards AE." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Der KI-Irrtum: Warum Deutschland auf Zuwanderung angewiesen ist: Leitartikel (2026)
Zitatform
Brücker, Herbert, Yuliya Kosyakova & Enzo Weber (2026): Der KI-Irrtum: Warum Deutschland auf Zuwanderung angewiesen ist. Leitartikel. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 106, H. 5, S. 304-305. DOI:10.2478/wd-2026-0074
Abstract
"Sieben Millionen - so viele Arbeitskräfte wird Deutschland in den nächsten 15 Jahren allein aufgrund des demografischen Wandels verlieren. Bereits seit vielen Jahren ist der demografische Effekt negativ, mit mehr als 400.000 Arbeitskräften pro Jahr. Tatsächlich beginnt der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt jedoch erst jetzt zu schrumpfen. Denn bislang konnte dieser Rückgang überkompensiert werden - durch eine steigende Erwerbsbeteiligung von Älteren und Frauen; und vor allem durch Zuwanderung. Doch diese Ausgleichsmechanismen stoßen zunehmend an Grenzen. Europa altert insgesamt, und die Dynamik der Zuwanderung innerhalb Europas nimmt ab. Zugleich sind viele der besonders mobilen, jüngeren Kohorten bereits gewandert. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird Migration schwieriger - und genau hier setzt ein verbreitetes Argument an: Wenn Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) zunehmend Aufgaben übernimmt, braucht man doch keine zusätzlichen Arbeitskräfte mehr. Diese Folgerung ist ein Trugschluss. Arbeitskräfteknappheit lässt sich gesamtwirtschaftlich nicht einfach wegdigitalisieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Das knappe Gut Arbeit: Automatisierung, Arbeitskräftemangel und sozialer Konflikt (2026)
Zitatform
Butollo, Florian (2026): Das knappe Gut Arbeit. Automatisierung, Arbeitskräftemangel und sozialer Konflikt. (Edition Suhrkamp 2815), Berlin: Suhrkamp Verlag, 254 Seiten.
Abstract
"Angesichts von Digitalisierung und Künstlicher Intelligenz wird allerorten vor massiven Arbeitsplatzverlusten gewarnt. Gleichzeitig reißen die Klagen über Fachkräftemangel nicht ab, zahllose Stellen bleiben unbesetzt, und dem Pflegesektor droht der Kollaps. Florian Butollo geht diesem Paradoxon auf den Grund und analysiert, warum gerade Automatisierung immer mehr Arbeit schafft – und damit zur Keimzelle eines neuen sozialen Konflikts wird: Die anbrechende Ära der Arbeitskräfteknappheit ist geprägt vom Leiden an Überlastung und den Kämpfen dagegen. Zugleich stellt sich die Frage nach der Sinnhaftigkeit von Arbeit neu: Wofür wollen wir angesichts sozialer und ökologischer Krisen künftig unsere Arbeitskraft einsetzen – und welche Tätigkeiten können verschwinden?" (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
Inhaltsverzeichnis -
Literaturhinweis
Revisiting the occupational impact of AI in the generative AI era (2026)
Casas, P.; González-Vázquez, I.; Salotti, S.; Martínez-Plumed, F.; Gómez, E.; Fernández-Macías, E.;Zitatform
Casas, P., E. Fernández-Macías, F. Martínez-Plumed, E. Gómez, I. González-Vázquez & S. Salotti (2026): Revisiting the occupational impact of AI in the generative AI era. (JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology 2026,02), Sevilla, 71 S.
Abstract
"Generative AI is reshaping what artificial intelligence can do in the workplace, calling into question pre-GenAI assessments of which workers and tasks are most exposed. In this paper we trace the evolution of AI exposure in the European labour market from 2008 to 2024 by linking 352 AI benchmarks to 14 cognitive abilities, 108 work tasks and 127 ISCO-3 occupations, weighting benchmarks by their research intensity in the AI literature and thus deriving AI exposure by cognitive ability. Bundling work tasks into occupations based on intensity indicators, we explore occupational exposure to AI. We find that the cognitive abilities most exposed to the recent surge of AI research are ideas-related, such as attention and search, comprehension and expression and logical reasoning. Because the associated information processing and problem-solving tasks are the most transversal across occupations, we find an exponential increase in AI exposure across all occupational categories of workers, even though comparatively high-skilled occupations are more exposed than elementary occupations. This points at a substantial and transversal labour market impact of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Measuring Task-Based Advanced Automation Technologies & Digital Assistance Systems in the National Educational Panel Study (2026)
Zitatform
Dicks, Alexander, Martin Ehlert, Insa Grüttgen, Benjamin Schulz & Basha Vicari (2026): Measuring Task-Based Advanced Automation Technologies & Digital Assistance Systems in the National Educational Panel Study. (NEPS Survey Papers 128), Bamberg, 31 S. DOI:10.5157/NEPS:SP128:1.0
Abstract
"Wir stellen ein neues taskbasiertes Instrument zur Messung der Automatisierung am Arbeitsplatz vor. Dabei bezeichnen wir die Automatisierungstechnologien als „digitale Assistenzsysteme“, die wir als fortschrittliche Automatisierungssysteme definieren, wie beispielsweise Software und Geräte, die Aufgaben automatisch ausführen, um die Arbeitnehmer zu unterstützen. Dazu gehören Chatbots mit künstlicher Intelligenz, Algorithmen zur Bild- und Videoerstellung, Tools für vorausschauende Wartung und Analyse, digitale Anleitungssysteme sowie Wearables und kollaborative Roboter. Aufbauend auf dem taskbasierten Ansatz und unter Berücksichtigung der jüngsten technologischen Fortschritte haben wir für das Nationale Bildungspanel (NEPS) sieben Items entwickelt, die verschiedene Arten von digitalen Assistenzsystemen erfassen. Ergebnisse auf Grundlage von Daten der NEPS-Startkohorten 4 und 6 zeigen, dass die Nutzung der digitalen Assistenzsysteme je nach Alter und Bildungsniveau variiert und mit komplementären beruflichen Aufgaben sowie Indikatoren für die Digitalisierung am Arbeitsplatz korreliert. Das neue Instrument ergänzt bestehende NEPS-Items zur Digitalisierung am Arbeitsplatz und bietet Potenzial für eine Längsschnittanalyse des technologischen Wandels am Arbeitsplatz und dessen Auswirkungen auf Qualifikationsanforderungen, Ungleichheit und lebenslanges Lernen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Biased by Design? Case Managers' Multidimensional Preferences Toward the Design of Algorithmic Decision Support Systems (2026)
Zitatform
Dietz, Martin, Christopher Osiander, Mareike Sirman-Winkler & Markus Tepe (2026): Biased by Design? Case Managers' Multidimensional Preferences Toward the Design of Algorithmic Decision Support Systems. In: Public Administration Review, S. 1-14. DOI:10.1111/puar.70111
Abstract
"This study examines whether street-level bureaucrats' preferences toward algorithmic decision support (ADS) induce a unilateral shift of technology-related risks onto clients of the public employment service. Expanding on public value theory and research on moral agency in public service work, we argue that case managers' choices of ADS designs are shaped by a plurality of professional, service, and efficiency values. To test this argument, we conducted a conjoint experiment on a representative sample of German Federal Employment Agency case managers. Respondents compared pairs of hypothetical ADS systems that differed in their design features, reflecting varying degrees of the realization of public values. The empirical results indicate that case managers' choices do not result in biased design. Instead, case managers balance design features reflecting professional and service values while maintaining administrative efficiency. Case managers appreciate ADS support but firmly reject the mandatory use of such advice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Impact of robotics on unemployment: Moderating effect of the national culture (2026)
Zitatform
Du, Guangjie, Suman Lodh, Monomita Nandy, Marina Dabić, Vikas Kumar & Jyoti Choudrie (2026): Impact of robotics on unemployment: Moderating effect of the national culture. In: Technological forecasting & social change, Jg. 227. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124643
Abstract
"The integration of robotics has created significant opportunities while simultaneously introduced labour market challenges. The aim of this exploratory research is to investigate the impact of robotic adoption on unemployment in a cross-country context. By presenting a novel theoretical framework that integrates the Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT) and the Absorptive Capacity Theory (ACT), and analysing a panel data from 33 countries, we show that countries with stronger absorptive capacity are better positioned to convert robotics adoption into employment gains. We further test whether national culture, proxied by Hofstede's cultural dimensions, moderates this relationship, uncovering a substantial heterogeneity across six cultural factors. This provides a practical blueprint for policymakers with clear evidence that uniform approaches to robotics adoption are unlikely to be effective and robotics policies must be tailored to local cultural norms, institutional capabilities, and national readiness. The policymaker should prioritise capability building alongside adjustment measures that support inclusive labour-market transitions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Algorithmic Profiling: Effective Tool for Targeting Active Labour Market Policies? (2026)
Zitatform
Eppel, Rainer, Ulrike Huemer, Helmut Mahringer & Lukas Schmoigl (2026): Algorithmic Profiling: Effective Tool for Targeting Active Labour Market Policies? In: Labour, S. 1-20. DOI:10.1111/labr.70013
Abstract
"Digitisation has sparked interest in automated decision making in Public Employment Services (PES). We evaluate an algorithmic profiling model in Austria that predicts the reemployment prospects of unemployed individuals to classify and assign them to active labour market policies. Our analysis shows that reallocating resources from jobseekers with low to medium prospects, as proposed by the PES, does not yield the expected efficiency gains. We find no systematic evidence that programmes are less effective for individuals with low predicted employment prospects than for those with medium prospects. These findings caution against crude algorithmic profiling and highlight the need for nuanced targeting strategies that prioritise the most disadvantaged jobseekers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Toward a Bad Job Economy: AI Adoption, Agency Costs, and Job Design (2026)
Zitatform
Fahn, Matthias, Jin Li & Chang Sun (2026): Toward a Bad Job Economy: AI Adoption, Agency Costs, and Job Design. (CESifo working paper 12612), München, 23 S., App.
Abstract
"We study how AI affects compensation and job design when performance depends on workers' non-contractible effort. In a principal–agent model with limited liability, AI reduces effort costs but disproportionately lowers the cost of achieving satisfactory performance. This raises the incentive cost of sustaining high effort and can induce firms to replace high-wage, high-effort good jobs with low-wage, low-effort bad jobs, even when good jobs create more total surplus. As a result, AI can lower wages, reduce worker welfare, and even depress profits. If workers can adopt AI unilaterally, adoption occurs even when the resulting equilibrium harms both parties; when adoption requires worker cooperation, resistance is strongest where AI erodes rents embodied in good jobs. In a search-and-matching extension, endogenous outside options amplify these forces, reinforcing a bad-job economy and potentially reducing employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Künstliche Intelligenz in deutschen Betrieben: Jeder vierte Betrieb nutzt mittlerweile generative KI (2026)
Zitatform
Friedrich, Martin & Christian Kagerl (2026): Künstliche Intelligenz in deutschen Betrieben: Jeder vierte Betrieb nutzt mittlerweile generative KI. (IAB-Kurzbericht 08/2026), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2608
Abstract
"Generativer Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) wird häufig bescheinigt, die Wirtschaft fundamental zu verändern. Wie verbreitet diese Technologie bereits in deutschen Betrieben ist, zeigen aktuelle Auswertungen aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel. Daten zum Themenschwerpunkt „Generative KI“ wurden 2025 erstmals erhoben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
- Weiterbildung und Regelungen zum Umgang mit der Technologie in Betrieben, die generative KI nutzen
- Art des betrieblichen Einsatzes von KI
- Entwicklung des betrieblichen Einsatzes von KI
- Determinanten der Wahrscheinlichkeit, generative KI im Betrieb zu nutzen
- Generative KI in deutschen Betrieben
- IAB-Forum Video
- Verbreitung von KI nach Betriebsgröße, Betriebsalter und Branchen
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Literaturhinweis
Retirement decisions in the age of COVID-19 pandemic: are older employees in digital occupations working longer? (2026)
Zitatform
Gallo, Giovanni & Amparo Nagore García (2026): Retirement decisions in the age of COVID-19 pandemic: are older employees in digital occupations working longer? In: Review of Economics of the Household, S. 1-34. DOI:10.1007/s11150-025-09827-9
Abstract
"This paper investigates the retirement response to the pandemic and to the resulting acceleration in the adoption of new technologies. Using the European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions datasets and leveraging the natural experiment of many workers being forced to work from home in Europe during the lockdown, we compare the retirement response of older workers in digital occupations (i.e. more exposed to the accelerated adoption of new technologies) versus non-digital occupations to detect any differences in retirement behaviour, which we interpret as digitalization effects. In addition, we analyze changes in retirement decisions by gender and geographic area. We find that retirement rates increased during COVID-19 in Europe, especially in Mediterranean countries and among women. This trend may be linked to gender occupational segregation. In Mediterranean countries, digitalization increases female retirement, likely due to challenges in balancing digital work and family responsibilities while working from home. In Eastern countries, and to a lesser extent in Northern countries, digitalization leads to postponing retirement among women, likely due to greater gender equality in unpaid work. In contrast, the retirement age for men is less affected by the pandemic with no significant differences between digital and non-digital occupations. This may exacerbate the existing gender gap in labor force participation and pension outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Endogenous Task Bundling, Skills and Automation (2026)
Zitatform
Gans, Joshua S. (2026): Endogenous Task Bundling, Skills and Automation. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 35211), Cambridge, Mass, 48 S.
Abstract
"Empirical measures of AI's wage effect typically hold fixed the bundle of activities a worker is paid for at its pre-AI shape. We argue that this assumption hides much of the action. When automation breaks a job apart, firms decide how to recombine the surviving activities; whether they rebundle them into one broad role or split them into specialist roles changes which surviving skills the labour market actually rewards. A skill that played no role in the pre-AI wage can become the dominant component of the post-AI wage, while a skill that anchored the pre-AI wage can disappear from the schedule. We develop an assignment model in which the priced human bundle is endogenous, and we use it to show that a fixed-bundle wage regression can mis-sign the effect of AI exposure. In general, the omitted-redesign bias has no unconditional sign: it is the residual covariance between exposure and role-specific redesign terms. Under explicit sufficient conditions, exposure-correlated unbundling loads specialist comparative-advantage premia onto the exposure coefficient, while exposure-correlated rebundling loads a different, often opposite, omitted term. The sign must therefore be measured from local post-AI partition changes rather than assumed from exposure alone." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
AI-Powered Skill Classification: Mapping Technology Intensity in the German Labor Market (2026)
Zitatform
Grenz, Sabrina, Terry Gregory & Florian Lehmer (2026): AI-Powered Skill Classification: Mapping Technology Intensity in the German Labor Market. (IZA discussion paper / IZA Network @ LISER 18415), Bonn: IZA Network @ LISER, 47 S.
Abstract
"The rapid evolution of technology is reshaping labor markets by altering skill demands and job profiles. This paper introduces a novel skill-based measure of occupational technology intensity – the Occupational Technology Skill Share (OTSS) – that distinguishes between manual, digital, and frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI). Using natural language processing, generative AI, and supervised machine learning, we develop an AI-powered skill classification that enriches occupation linked skill labels with standardized GenAI-generated descriptions and structured indicators of technological content, enabling transparent classification by technology intensity. We compute OTSS for all occupations in the German labor market. For the average worker in 2023, manual technologies account for the largest share of skill content (42%), followed by digital (38%) and frontier technologies (20%). Frontier technologies remain concentrated in specialized occupations, while digital technologies are widespread. Linking these measures to administrative data from 2012–2023 shows a broad shift from manual and digital toward frontier skills across occupations, and reveals a non-linear, U-shaped relationship between changes in frontier skill intensity and employment growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Generative AI and Career Choices (2026)
Zitatform
Gschwendt, Christian, Martina Viarengo & Thea S. Zoellner (2026): Generative AI and Career Choices. (Working paper / Swiss Leading House 251), Zürich, 52 S.
Abstract
"The economic impact of technological change will critically depend on how future workers invest in their human capital. Yet, little is known about how future workers themselves evaluate and choose their educational and occupational paths in light of emerging technologies. This paper examines how adolescents currently at the school-to-work transition stage value working with generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in their future occupations, and how automation risk and opportunities for continuing education shape these preferences. We field a discrete-choice experiment among a nationally representative sample of over 7,000 Swiss adolescents aged around 15. We find that adolescents generally exhibit an aversion to collaborating with GenAI at work, with females consistently more averse than males. However, preferences are nuanced: adolescents welcome greater GenAI collaboration, provided that GenAI usage levels remain moderate and that it is not accompanied by increases in job-automation risk. Finally, continuing education opportunities in occupations improve attitudes towards working with GenAI across genders. Our results challenge simple narratives of technology acceptance or rejection, revealing that adolescents' willingness to work with GenAI depends on how it is implemented - its intensity, associated displacement risks, and accompanying skill development - rather than the technology itself. Our findings suggest that the way future workers value GenAI collaboration in their career choices critically depends on its intensity and on the interplay with automation risk and AI-related educational opportunities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Automation, skill and job creation (2026)
Zitatform
Guo, Kaizhao (2026): Automation, skill and job creation. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 70, H. 5. DOI:10.1007/s00181-026-02912-7
Abstract
"This paper explores the heterogeneous effects of automation technologies on employment rate across US regions from different income groups, and investigates mechanisms through proportion of skilled workers. Automation, measured by both robotic penetration and ICT trade volumes, is replacing labour force. Exploiting variations across US commuting zones, this study finds that employment reductions are significant and substantial in low and middle income areas, and rising income levels could cause insignificant employment responses. Leveraging shift-share IV strategies and generalised model specifications, further evidence suggests that a simple net job creation channel can explain these patterns. Specifically, displacement effects outweigh productivity effects in low income CZs with lower proportion of skilled labour, and job losses are larger in middle income CZs with concentration of routine occupations; job creations are complementing job destructions with growing income levels and higher skill shares. These technical changes are particularly significant in manufacturing sectors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Arbeitszeit, Produktivität, KI - wie Deutschland sein Arbeitskräfteangebot stabilisieren kann: Teil des Zeitgesprächs "Arbeitszeit im Wandel - Wie sich Wohlstand trotz sinkenden Arbeitskräfteangebots sichern lässt" (2026)
Hammermann, Andrea; Stettes, Oliver;Zitatform
Hammermann, Andrea & Oliver Stettes (2026): Arbeitszeit, Produktivität, KI - wie Deutschland sein Arbeitskräfteangebot stabilisieren kann. Teil des Zeitgesprächs "Arbeitszeit im Wandel - Wie sich Wohlstand trotz sinkenden Arbeitskräfteangebots sichern lässt". In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 106, H. 4, S. 248-252. DOI:10.2478/wd-2026-0064
Abstract
"Längere Arbeitszeiten können einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Stabilisierung des Arbeitskräfteangebots leisten, während Investitionen in technologischen und organisatorischen Fortschritt notwendig sind, um die Arbeitsproduktivität zu steigern. Vor diesem Hintergrund geht der Beitrag der Frage nach, wie sich das Arbeitskräfteangebot in Deutschland trotz des demografischen Wandels stabilisieren und der Wohlstand langfristig sichern lässt. Empirische Befunde legen nahe, dass KI und Humankapital in der Regel komplementär wirken und KIAnwendungen menschliche Arbeit eher ergänzen als ersetzen. Entscheidend für den Erhalt des Wohlstands ist somit, beide Hebel – Arbeitszeitund Produktivität – gemeinsam zu nutzen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Use of Gen AI in the Workplace and the Value of Access to Training (2026)
Zitatform
Hashim, Ali, Gizem Koşar & Wilbert van der Klaauw (2026): Use of Gen AI in the Workplace and the Value of Access to Training. (Liberty Street Economics / Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2026-04-14), New York, NY: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 5 S. DOI:10.59576/lse.20260414
Abstract
"The rapid spread of generative AI (AI) tools is reshaping the workplace at a remarkable rate. Yet relatively little is known about whether workers have access to these tools, how the tools affect workers’ daily productivity, and how much workers value the training needed to use the tools effectively. In this post, we shed light on these issues by drawing on supplemental questions in the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), fielded to a representative sample of the U.S. population. We find that adoption of AI tools at work is heterogeneous, that a sizable share of workers see AI training as important, and that a significant share of employers are nonetheless not yet providing access to AI tools or training on how to use them." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Künstliche Intelligenz im Übergang Schule – Beruf: Chancen, Risiken und Qualitätskriterien (2026)
Hense, Julia; Goertz, Lutz;Zitatform
Hense, Julia & Lutz Goertz (2026): Künstliche Intelligenz im Übergang Schule – Beruf. Chancen, Risiken und Qualitätskriterien. (ueberaus.de), Bonn, o. Sz.
Abstract
"Künstliche Intelligenz verändert den Übergang von der Schule in Ausbildung und Beruf – aber wie nutzen Fachkräfte KI verantwortungsvoll? Julia Hense und Lutz Goertz erläutern, wie KI diese unterstützen kann und wo ihre Grenzen liegen. Von der Simulation von Vorstellungsgesprächen über Chatbots zur Berufsorientierung bis zur datengestützten Analyse von Potenzialen: Die praktischen Chancen sind vielfältig. Gleichzeitig braucht es kritische Reflexion und klare Qualitätskriterien, um Diskriminierung zu vermeiden und Vertrauen zu schaffen. Der Basisartikel bietet konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen für Fachkräfte und zeigt: KI ist kein Ersatz für menschliche Beziehungsarbeit, sondern ein hilfreiches Werkzeug – wenn es richtig eingesetzt wird." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Occupational gender segregation: what can we learn from computer use trends? (2026)
Zitatform
Herzberg-Druker, Efrat (2026): Occupational gender segregation: what can we learn from computer use trends? In: Social forces, Jg. 105, H. 1, S. 299-320. DOI:10.1093/sf/soaf180
Abstract
"This study posits to an intricate interrelation between changes in occupational gender segregation (OGS) and the rise in computer use in the workplace in the United States. I posit that two contrasting mechanisms underpin this relation. Firstly, computerization has contributed to a more balanced gender distribution in certain professions, previously dominated by men, due to a decrease in physical tasks in occupations, thereby reducing OGS. Conversely, in other occupations, heightened computer use has increased Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) knowledge requirements, thus restricting women’s integration and reproducing OGS.My empirical analysis, utilizing fixed-effects regression models, lagged models, ordinary least squares (OLS) models, and mediation analysis on a comprehensive dataset of the United States Census, American Community Survey, and Occupational Information Network data, confirms a significant association between computer use and OGS. The physical attributes of occupations and their required STEM knowledge components emerge as critical factors. These contradictory mechanisms—one involving reduced physical demands and the other increased required STEM knowledge—ultimately maintain a stable OGS level." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The impact of AI on global knowledge work (2026)
Ide, Enrique; Talamas, Eduard;Zitatform
Ide, Enrique & Eduard Talamas (2026): The impact of AI on global knowledge work. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 157. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103876
Abstract
"We analyze how Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshapes global knowledge work in a two-region world where firms organize production hierarchically to use knowledge efficiently: the most knowledgeable individuals specialize in problem-solving, while others perform routine work. Before AI, the Advanced Economy specializes in problem-solving services, whereas the Emerging Economy focuses on routine work. AI converts compute — which is located in the Advanced Economy — into autonomous “AI agents” that perfectly substitute for humans with a given level of knowledge. Basic AI reduces the Advanced Economy ’s net exports of problem-solving services, potentially reversing pre-AI trade patterns. In contrast, sophisticated AI expands these exports, reinforcing existing trade patterns. Finally, we show that a global ban on AI autonomy redistributes AI’s gains toward lower-skilled workers, while a regional ban — such as prohibiting autonomy only in the Emerging Economy — offers little benefit to lower-skilled workers and harms the most knowledgeable individuals in that region." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Tabellenanhang zur Studie "Digital Gender Gap. Schwerpunkt 2026: Künstliche Intelligenz" (2026)
Zitatform
Jahn, Sandy, Carola Burkert, Katharina Diener & Britta Matthes (2026): Tabellenanhang zur Studie "Digital Gender Gap. Schwerpunkt 2026: Künstliche Intelligenz". Berlin, 10 S.
Abstract
"Allgemeine Hinweise zu den Daten und Methoden sowie Interpretationshilfen. - Übersicht über die in den Analysen verwendeten Variablen und deren Operationalisierung. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells ohne Interaktionen, wenn allein die soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells mit Interaktionen, wenn allein die soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells ohne Interaktionen, wenn neben den soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale auch Merkmale des Jobs und Betriebs berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells mit Interaktionen, wenn neben den soziodemographischen Merkmale auch Merkmale des Jobs und Betriebs berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells ohne Interaktionen, wenn neben den soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale auch Merkmale zu Einstellungen und Kompetenzen berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells mit Interaktionen, wenn neben den soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale auch Merkmale zu Einstellungen und Kompetenzen berücksichtigt werden." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Digital Gender Gap: Schwerpunkt 2026 Künstliche Intelligenz (2026)
Zitatform
Jahn, Sandy, Carola Burkert, Katharina Diener & Britta Matthes (2026): Digital Gender Gap. Schwerpunkt 2026 Künstliche Intelligenz. Berlin, 20 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.D21.2026
Abstract
"Künstliche Intelligenz wird immer mehr zur Schlüsselressource. Ihre Nutzung entscheidet zunehmend über Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Beschäftigungschancen und gesellschaftliche Teilhabe – vergleichbar mit Alphabetisierung oder Internetzugang in früheren Transformationsphasen. Die Studie des IAB und der Initiative D 21 zeigt: Es besteht ein signifikanter Gender AI Gap. Frauen nutzen KI-Anwendungen seltener und weniger intensiv als Männer (rund 16 Prozentpunkte Unterschied in der Ausgangsbetrachtung). Wenn Unterschiede in Alter, Bildung, Einkommen, beruflichem Kontext sowie Kompetenzen und Einstellungen statistisch berücksichtigt werden, verringert sich die Lücke zwar – bleibt aber auch dann bestehen (rund 8 Prozentpunkte)." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
Interview mit den Autorinnen im Online-Magazin IAB-Forum -
Literaturhinweis
Der Gender AI Gap: "KI wird zur Schlüsselressource - aber Männer und Frauen nutzen sie nicht gleich" (2026)
Zitatform
Keitel, Christiane; Katharina Diener, Britta Matthes, Sandy Jahn & Carola Burkert (interviewte Person) (2026): Der Gender AI Gap: "KI wird zur Schlüsselressource - aber Männer und Frauen nutzen sie nicht gleich". In: IAB-Forum H. 23.04.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260423.01
Abstract
"Mit der rasanten Verbreitung von Künstlicher Intelligenz in der Arbeitswelt entsteht eine neue Lücke zwischen den Geschlechtern: der Gender AI Gap. Dies zeigt eine aktuelle Studie des IAB, die in Zusammenarbeit mit der Initiative D21 entstanden ist, Deutschlands größtem gemeinnützigen Netzwerk für die digitale Gesellschaft. Der Studie zufolge nutzen Frauen KI deutlich seltener und weniger intensiv nutzen als Männer – selbst bei vergleichbaren Voraussetzungen. Warum das so ist, welche Rolle Netzwerke und Wahrnehmungen spielen, und an welchen Stellschrauben Politik und Betriebe jetzt ansetzen müssen, erläutern die Autorinnen der Studie im Interview." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
„Es geht nicht darum, was KI uns wegnehmen könnte, sondern welche Chancen entstehen“ (2026)
Zitatform
Keitel, Christiane; Britta Matthes & Katharina Grienberger (interviewte Person) (2026): „Es geht nicht darum, was KI uns wegnehmen könnte, sondern welche Chancen entstehen“. In: IAB-Forum H. 11.05.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260511.01
Abstract
"Der IAB-Job-Futuromat zeigt, welche beruflichen Tätigkeiten durch digitale Technologien und KI potenziell automatisierbar sind – und welche nicht. Im Interview erklären die Forscherinnen Britta Matthes und Katharina Grienberger, wie das Tool funktioniert, welche Berufe besonders betroffen sind und warum es bei der Berufswahl nicht um die Angst vor der Automatisierbarkeit, sondern vielmehr um Chancen gehen sollte." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
When Algorithms Favor the Underrepresented - Race and Gender Biases in LLM Résumé Evaluations (2026)
Zitatform
Kim, Soonyoung Chloe, Ivan Hernandez & Jingyi Li (2026): When Algorithms Favor the Underrepresented - Race and Gender Biases in LLM Résumé Evaluations. In: Journal of Personnel Psychology, Jg. 25, H. 3, S. 148-157. DOI:10.1027/1866-5888/a000388
Abstract
"The literature on name-based biases in hiring suggests pervasive discrimination, as White-sounding names receive more callbacks than Black-sounding ones. This study assesses whether AI systems, through open Large Language Models (LLMs), exhibit similar biases. The LLMs evaluated résumés on attributes such as competence and warmth, aggregating these dimensions into composite scores for each résumé. The different names attached to a résumé led to changes in evaluation, despite identical content. Statistically significant race and gender biases were found in most models for warmth and competence ratings. Unlike typical settings, Black applicants and female names were rated slightly higher through the LLMs’ evaluations. These findings highlight the importance of examining AI tools used in hiring as they may unintentionally reflect societal biases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Hogrefe Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Strukturwandel in Mitteldeutschland (2026)
Kropp, Per; Fritzsche, Birgit; Theuer, Stefan;Zitatform
Kropp, Per, Birgit Fritzsche & Stefan Theuer (2026): Strukturwandel in Mitteldeutschland. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen 01/2026), Nürnberg, 44 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.RESAT.2601
Abstract
"Technologischer Wandel, darunter die Digitalisierung vieler Wirtschaftsbereiche, die Verschiebung von Märkten und nicht zuletzt die demografische Entwicklung prägten den beruflichen Strukturwandel in Mitteldeutschland in der letzten Dekade. Diese Entwicklung abzubilden ist das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie. Dabei liegt der Fokus auf Mitteldeutschland, seine Kreise und Arbeitsmarktregionen; zum Vergleich wurden allerdings häufig die Werte aller 16 Bundesländer herangezogen. Hinzu kommt der Vergleich für die Braunkohlereviere, zu denen das Mitteldeutsche Revier gehört. Für die Analysen wurden Indikatoren entwickelt, welche die Veränderung der Beschäftigungsstruktur in Berufssegmenten und ihre Dynamik abbilden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
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Literaturhinweis
Sachsen-Anhalt im Strukturwandel: Digitalisierung. Mit einer Neuschätzung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale (2026)
Kropp, Per; Fritzsche, Birgit; Theuer, Stefan;Zitatform
Kropp, Per, Stefan Theuer & Birgit Fritzsche (2026): Sachsen-Anhalt im Strukturwandel: Digitalisierung. Mit einer Neuschätzung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen 03/2026), Nürnberg, 40 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.RESAT.2603
Abstract
"Die Arbeitswelt verändert sich rasant. Technische Entwicklungen bei Software, Computer oder computergesteuerten Maschinen schaffen immer neue Anwendungsmöglichkeiten. Bislang waren insbesondere Routinetätigkeiten z. B. bei Helfertätigkeiten automatisierbar. Nun sind durch produktiv nutzbare KI-Technologie auch zunehmend Nicht-Routine-Tätigkeiten von Spezialisten und Experten betroffen. Im Vergleich zu Deutschland hat Sachsen-Anhalt mehr Berufe mit einem hohen Substituierbarkeitspotenzial. Das durchschnittliche Substituierbarkeitspotenzial über alle Berufe stieg bis 2016 rasant an, seitdem jedoch in geringerem Ausmaß. Sicherheitsberufe hatten 2022 mit rund 21 Prozentpunkten einen sehr hohen Anstieg, so wie zuletzt die IT- und naturwissenschaftlichen Dienstleistungsberufe mit rund 20 Prozentpunkten. Für diese Veränderungen konnten drei Ursachen identifiziert werden: die Veränderung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale einzelner Tätigkeiten in den Berufen, innerberufliche Veränderungen in der Bedeutung von (Kern-)Tätigkeiten und der berufliche Strukturwandel. Für Männer und Frauen sind die Substituierbarkeitspotenziale seit 2013 ähnlich gestiegen, bei Männern allerdings ausgehend von einem höheren Niveau. Künstliche Intelligenz als dominanter Aspekt der jüngsten Entwicklung macht aber eher Tätigkeiten ersetzbar, die mehrheitlich von Frauen erledigt werden. Zwischen den verschiedenen Alterskohorten gibt es insgesamt kaum Unterschiede. Lediglich in zwei Berufssegmenten haben jüngere Beschäftigte ein höheres Substitutionspotenzial – bei Verkehrs- und Logistikberufen sowie bei den IT- und naturwissenschaftlichen Dienstleistungsberufen. Auch wenn sich einige Berufe durch Digitalisierung stark verändern führt das kaum zu Beschäftigungsverlusten. Für solche Berufe und für Regionen, in denen sie vermehrt vorkommen, können jedoch höhere Weiterbildungsbedarfe vermutet werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
Online-Anhänge zu Substituierbarkeitspotenzialen in Sachsen-Anhalt (nicht barrierefrei) -
Literaturhinweis
Strukturwandel in Thüringen: Digitalisierung. Mit einer Neuschätzung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale (2026)
Kropp, Per; Fritzsche, Birgit; Theuer, Stefan;Zitatform
Kropp, Per, Stefan Theuer & Birgit Fritzsche (2026): Strukturwandel in Thüringen: Digitalisierung. Mit einer Neuschätzung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen 02/2026), Nürnberg, 42 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.RESAT.2602
Abstract
"Die Arbeitswelt verändert sich in rasant. Technische Entwicklungen bei Software, Computer oder computergesteuerten Maschinen schaffen immer neue Anwendungsmöglichkeiten. Bislang waren insbesondere Routinetätigkeiten z. B. bei Helfertätigkeiten automatisierbar. Nun sind durch produktiv nutzbare KI-Technologie auch zunehmend nicht-routine-Tätigkeiten von Spezialisten und Experten betroffen. Im Vergleich zu Deutschland hatte Thüringen häufiger Berufe mit einem hohen Substituierbarkeitspotenzial. Das durchschnittliche Substituierbarkeitspotenzial über alle Berufe stieg bis 2016 rasant an, seitdem jedoch im geringeren Ausmaß. Sicherheitsberufe hatten 2019 mit rund 21 Prozentpunkten einen sehr hohen Anstieg, so wie zuletzt die IT- und naturwissenschaftlichen Dienstleistungsberufe mit rund 20 Prozentpunkten. Für diese Veränderungen konnten drei Faktoren identifiziert werden: die Veränderung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale einzelner Berufe, innerberufliche Veränderungen wie bei den Kerntätigkeiten und der berufliche Strukturwandel. Für Männer und Frauen sind die Substituierbarkeitspotenziale seit 2013 ähnlich gestiegen, bei Männern allerdings von einem höheren Anfangsniveau. KI ersetzt dabei eher Tätigkeiten, die mehrheitlich von Frauen erledigt werden. Zwischen den verschiedenen Alterskohorten gibt es insgesamt kaum Unterschiede. Lediglich in zwei Berufssegmenten haben jüngere Beschäftigte ein höheres Substitutionspotenzial – bei Verkehrs- und Logistikberufen sowie bei den IT- und naturwissenschaftlichen Dienstleistungsberufen. Auch wenn sich einige Berufe durch Digitalisierung stark verändern führt das kaum zu Beschäftigungsverlusten. Für solche Berufe und für Regionen, in denen sie vermehrt vorkommen, können jedoch höhere Weiterbildungsbedarfe vermutet werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
Online-Anhänge zu Substituierbarkeitspotenzialen in Thüringen (nicht barrierefrei) -
Literaturhinweis
Automation and the risk of labor market exclusion across Europe (2026)
Zitatform
Lamperti, Fabio & Davide Castellani (2026): Automation and the risk of labor market exclusion across Europe. In: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Jg. 77, S. 62-76. DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.014
Abstract
"Labor market exclusion represents a major concern in several European economies, particularly affecting highly exposed demographic groups. This paper examines the potential effect of automation technologies on the risk of being locked into protracted unemployment or inactivity, using Labour Force Survey data for the European Union 27 countries and the United Kingdom, between 2009 and 2019. Our study employs repeated cross-sections of individual-level data to compute probabilities of exclusion outcomes due to automation adoption, controlling for several individual, macroeconomic, and region-specific characteristics, and for potential selection mechanisms. Findings highlight that, on average, the adoption of new automation technologies is associated with a higher probability of being inactive. This is consistent with the view that automation may exacerbate job insecurity, psychological discouragement, and detachment from job-seeking. This relationship is heterogeneous across demographic groups, with younger individuals being relatively more affected." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Automation, Trade Unions and Atypical Employment (2026)
Zitatform
Lewandowski, Piotr & Wojciech Szymczak (2026): Automation, Trade Unions and Atypical Employment. In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 65, H. 3, S. 378-396. DOI:10.1111/irel.70017
Abstract
"We study the effect of automation technologies—industrial robots, software and databases—on the incidence of involuntary atypical employment in 13 EU countries between 2006 and 2018. Robots do not affect the total employment rate but significantly increase the involuntary atypical employment share, mainly through fixed-term work. Software and databases increase total employment and are neutral for atypical employment. Higher trade union density mitigates the robots' impact on atypical employment, while employment protection legislation plays no role. Using historical decompositions, we attribute 1–2 percentage points of a 15% average atypical employment share in our sample to automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Economics of Human and AI Collaboration: When is Partial Automation More Attractive than Full Automation? (2026)
Li, Wensu; Lyu, Harry; Goehring, Brian C.; Aboutorabi, Atin; Qian, Kaizhi; Thompson, Neil; Fleming, Martin;Zitatform
Li, Wensu, Atin Aboutorabi, Harry Lyu, Kaizhi Qian, Martin Fleming, Brian C. Goehring & Neil Thompson (2026): Economics of Human and AI Collaboration: When is Partial Automation More Attractive than Full Automation? (arXiv papers 2603.29121), 57 S.
Abstract
"This paper develops a unified framework for evaluating the optimal degree of task automation. Moving beyond binary automate-or-not assessments, we model automation intensity as a continuous choice in which firms minimize costs by selecting an AI accuracy level, from no automation through partial human-AI collaboration to full automation. On the supply side, we estimate an AI production function via scaling-law experiments linking performance to data, compute, and model size. Because AI systems exhibit predictable but diminishing returns to these inputs, the cost of higher accuracy is convex: good performance may be inexpensive, but near-perfect accuracy is disproportionately costly. Full automation is therefore often not cost-minimizing; partial automation, where firms retain human workers for residual tasks, frequently emerges as the equilibrium. On the demand side, we introduce an entropy-based measure of task complexity that maps model accuracy into a labor substitution ratio, quantifying human labor displacement at each accuracy level. We calibrate the framework with O*NET task data, a survey of 3,778 domain experts, and GPT-4o-derived task decompositions, implementing it in computer vision. Task complexity shapes substitution: low-complexity tasks see high substitution, while high-complexity tasks favor limited partial automation. Scale of deployment is a key determinant: AI-as-a-Service and AI agents spread fixed costs across users, sharply expanding economically viable tasks. At the firm level, cost-effective automation captures approximately 11% of computer-vision-exposed labor compensation; under economy-wide deployment, this share rises sharply. Since other AI systems exhibit similar scaling-law economics, our mechanisms extend beyond computer vision, reinforcing that partial automation is often the economically rational long-run outcome, not merely a transitional phase." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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