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Abbate, Nicolás & Bruno Jiménez (2026): Do minimum wage hikes lead to employment destruction? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Argentina. In: Journal of Development Economics, Jg. 178. DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103558

Abstract

"In this study, we examine the impact of eight minimum wage increases in Argentina during the early 21st century by analyzing administrative records of registered employment. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design, we compare job separation rates between a group affected by the minimum wage hikes and a control group slightly out of their legal scope. Our findings indicate that, overall, these minimum wage hikes had no significant impact on separation rates. However, the 2008 increase triggered a 4.8 percentage point (19%) decrease in separations, casting doubt on the disemployment effects of minimum wages. Overall, these findings suggest that during economic upswings, minimum wage increases may have little to no adverse impact on job destruction." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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Borgschulte, Mark, Heepyung Cho & Darren Lubotsky (2026): Immigrants at the Margin: Labor Market Effects of the Minimum Wage. (RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2026,103), Berlin, 44 S.

Abstract

"We examine the differential effects of minimum wages on immigrant and native workers in the United States. We find that minimum wage increases lead to reduced hours of work among immigrants with no effect on their employment. The effects are concentrated among recently-arrived, likely-undocumented workers in high turnover industries. Native workers show no such response, even when examining native subgroups with similar characteristics to the most affected immigrants. We conclude that affected immigrant labor markets feature low-surplus, low-investment employment relationships with flexible hours, but they are embedded in labor markets where replacement is unusually costly." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carta, Francesca & Fabrizio Colonna (2026): Minimum income and household labour supply. In: International Tax and Public Finance, Jg. 33, H. 2, S. 514-547. DOI:10.1007/s10797-025-09918-4

Abstract

"This paper examines the impact of Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) schemes on work incentives at the household level. We show that these schemes create strategic complementarities between partners’ employment decisions. When one partner is non-employed or earns a low wage, the household is more likely to receive the benefit, which discourages the other partner from working to avoid losing the benefit. The disincentive to work does not instead apply to partners of high earners whose income exceeds the programme threshold. This leads the partners to coordinate their decisions so that both are non-employed. The negative impact of the GMI on labour supply is therefore more pronounced in economies with many single-earner households. Focusing on Italy, where the employment rate of married women is low and a relatively generous GMI programme was introduced in 2019, we use a structural labour supply model to estimate that the GMI would primarily reduce the employment rate of married men with non-working wives and increase the number of households in which neither partner works. Married women would be less affected due to the high employment rate of their husbands." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2026): The heterogeneous effects of large and small minimum wage changes on hours worked: Evidence using a partially pre-committed analysis plan. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 262. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112852

Abstract

"We use a partially pre-committed estimation strategy to study the effects of minimum wage increases on hours worked. Analyzing CPS and ACS data from 2011–2019, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced usual hours worked per week among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just under one hour per week during the decade prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, while the effects of smaller minimum wage increases are economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Because we follow the same pre-committed analysis plan as Clemens and Strain’s (forthcoming) analysis of employment, we can directly compare the resulting employment and hours elasticities. We find that these elasticities were very similar in our empirical context." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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Davies, Michael, R. Jisung Park & Anna Stansbury (2026): Minimum Wages and Workplace Injuries. (Upjohn Institute working paper 428), Kalamazoo, Mich., 62 S., App. DOI:10.17848/wp26-428

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Giupponi, Giulia & Stephen Machin (2026): Company Wage Policy in a Low-Wage Labor Market. (CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 21345), London, 72 S.

Abstract

"We study how firms set wages for their employees when they can legally age-discriminate across workers. We exploit an age-specific minimum wage change in the UK, which raised the minimum applying to workers aged 25 and over, leaving unchanged the minima for younger workers. Using matched employer-employee data on a low-paying sector, we show large, positive wage spillovers on workers aged under 25, which arise within firms from company wage policy. Pay equity norms offer the most parsimonious explanation for the emergence of spillovers. The effects that we document also operate in other low-paying sectors of the UK labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Guillen Sanchez, Jorge, Jose Alberto Molina & Jose Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal (2026): Minimum Wage and Parental Childcare Time in the USA, 2019-2023. (MPRA paper / University Library of Munich 127777), München, 33 S.

Abstract

"Recent economic literature suggests that increases in the minimum wage can lead to parents spending more time in childcare through easing financial constraints such as the income effect. However, most evidence from past research does not analyse the disruptions of the COVID 19 pandemic. This research examines the impact of state-level minimum wage increases on parental childcare time in the United States during the mentioned period of 2019 to 2023. Through the use of microdata from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), we analyse a sample of 4043 working age parents and find that, contrary to findings from the 2003 to 2019 period, there is no statistical-ly significant effect on childcare time across aggregate or subgroup specifications, including mothers, fathers and low education parents among others. This null result diverges from pre-2019 literature. We attribute this lack of significance to the unique structural rigidities of the post-pandemic labor market (2019–2023) and the erosion of real wages due to high inflation, which likely neutralized the behavioral incentives typically associated with wage floors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hijzen, Alexander, Mateo Montenegro & Ana Sofia Pessoa (2026): Minimum Wages in a Dual Labor Market: Evidence from the 2019 Minimum-Wage Hike in Spain. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 98. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102826

Abstract

"This paper provides an assessment of the 2019 minimum-wage hike in Spain, which increased the minimum wage by 22% and directly concerned 7% of dependent employees. We make use of two complementary approaches, one that follows incumbent workers over time and hence does not take account of any possible effects on new hires, and one that tracks employment in wage bins over time and takes account of both separations and new hires. The results are as follows. First, the minimum wage hike significantly increased the wages of directly affected workers, with small positive wage spillovers on workers with initial wages just about the new minimum wage. Second, the increase in wages comes at the expense of a reduction in low-wage employment. While employment increases just above the minimum wage, it is not sufficient to offset the decline in employment below it. Third, the reduction in employment is mainly driven by a reduction in hires of workers on open-ended contracts and to a smaller extent job losses among workers on fixed-term contracts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, Marco Stamegna, David Cano Ortiz, Simone D’Alessandro & Pietro Guarnieri (2026): Tackling labor market inequalities through minimum and maximum wages. In: Economic Modelling, Jg. 157. DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107495

Abstract

"Income inequality in labor markets arises from both inadequate pay at the bottom and excessive remuneration at the top of the wage distribution. Statutory minimum wages have proven effective in addressing low wages and in-work poverty, yet many countries have not fully implemented them. Conversely, salary caps have received relatively little attention as instruments to limit top incomes. This paper examines the effects of introducing both minimum and maximum wages in Italy using Eurogreen, a macro-simulation model that integrates a dynamic input–output framework with labor market heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that the joint implementation of these policies substantially reduces labor market inequalities without compromising overall economic performance. Minimum wages help mitigate disparities across skill levels, occupational groups, and industrial sectors, while maximum wages are particularly effective in narrowing the gender pay gap. These results suggest that well-designed wage policies can serve as powerful tools for fostering more inclusive and equitable labor markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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Rao, Nirupama L. & Max Risch (2026): Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Jg. 141, H. 1, S. 373-427. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjaf053

Abstract

"A common concern surrounding minimum wage policies is their impact on independent businesses, which are often feared to be less able to bear or pass on cost increases. We examine how these typically small and medium-size firms accommodate minimum wage increases along product and labor market margins using a matched owner-firm-worker panel data set drawn from the universe of U.S. tax records over a 10-year period, and using state minimum wage changes as identifying variation. We find that on average, firms in highly exposed industries do not substantially reduce employment—they do not lay off workers but moderately reduce part-time hiring. Instead, these firms are able to fully finance the new labor costs with new revenues, leaving average owner profits unchanged. Higher wage floors, however, forestall entry, particularly for less productive firms, reducing the number of independent firms operating in these industries by roughly 2%. Yet these industries do not shrink; instead, incumbent responses and strong positive selection among entrants reshape industries that rely heavily on low-wage workers, yielding fewer but more productive firms after the cost shock. We also take a worker-level perspective to examine how potentially vulnerable individuals are affected by minimum wage increases. Using panels of low-earning and young workers, we find that their average earnings rise substantially with the minimum wage, while they are no less likely to be employed. Worker transitions indicate that minimum wage increases boost retention and that worker reallocation from independent firms toward corporations buffers disemployment impacts from reduced hiring at independent firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Albagli, Pinjas, Rui Costa & Stephen Machin (2025): Minimum wage effects: adjustment through labour market dynamics and alternative work arrangements. A report for the Low Pay Commission. (CEP report 49), London: Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, 96 S.

Abstract

"This report investigates the UK's 2016 National Living Wage (NLW) introduction, focusing on firm adjustment through labour market transitions and job contract amendments. The NLW boosted worker wages, and whilst there was no change in total employment, firms adjusted through changes in employment composition and by altering employment contracts. The NLW spurred increased transitions from temporary to permanent roles, reduced underemployment, and shifted workers away from non-standard arrangements like part-time roles. However, a modest rise in zero-hour contracts among exposed workers reflects the nuanced nature of these adjustments. These contract changes, and shifts in composition and transition dynamics, provide insights into ways in which employers adjustment to cost shocks induced by minimum wage increases, and how at the same time they maintain employment stability and reshape within-firm job and career structures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Albertini, Julien, Arthur Poirier & Anthony Terriau (2025): Payroll Tax Reductions on Low Wages and Minimum Wage in France. (Working paper / GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne 202501), Lyon ; Saint-Étienne, 44 S.

Abstract

"Introduced in France in the 1990s to reduce the cost of low-skilled labor, payroll tax reductions on low wages were later expanded and extended to higher wages. This study evaluates the impact of the current payroll tax schedule on employment, fiscal surplus, and welfare. We develop a life-cycle matching model in which workers are heterogeneous in terms of age, education, human capital, family status, hours worked and idiosyncratic productivity, and where search effort, hiring and separations are endogenous. Accounting for interactions with the socio-fiscal system, we demonstrate that reducing payroll tax cuts for low wages would result in declines in both employment and fiscal surplus. Furthermore, we show that increasing the minimum wage would significantly reduce employment and fiscal surplus, with the magnitude of the effect depending on whether the payroll tax schedule and other socio-fiscal measures are indexed to the minimum wage. Lastly, we identify the optimal payroll tax schedule, revealing that employment, fiscal surplus, and welfare can all be improved by increasing payroll tax reductions for wages near the minimum wage while reducing them for wages exceeding twice the minimum wage." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Appler, Felix, Christine Aumayr-Pintar & Carlos Vacas‑Soriano (2025): Minimum wages in 2025. Annual review. (Eurofound research report / European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions), Luxembourg, 74 S. DOI:10.2806/6315456

Abstract

"2024 was an eventful year for minimum wage regulations in most EU Member States, as the EU Minimum Wage Directive had to be transposed into national legislation by mid November. Therefore, the regular discussions on setting rates for 2025 were sometimes overshadowed by discussions regarding the required adaptations to national regulations. Most countries managed to transpose the directive by the deadline or with a short delay but still within the year. However, in a few countries, the full transposition was still pending as of mid-March 2025. This year’s edition of the annual review on minimum wages provides a comprehensive overview of recent developments. The first two chapters present the usual summaries of how national minimum wages (and collectively agreed minimum wages in countries without a national minimum wage) were set and developed for 2025. Chapter 3 focuses on the new minimum wage regulations, providing a comparative analysis of how Member States with statutory minimum wages have implemented various articles and aspects of the directive. It examines the indicative reference values adopted, the consultative bodies designated or set up, criteria that wage-setters are required to consider when uprating, approaches to variations in minimum wages and measures to promote collective bargaining. Chapter 4 focuses on minimum wage earners and their ability to afford housing, based on analysis of the latest data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). Furthermore, this report is accompanied by two related Eurofound working papers. The first presents three country examples of how Member States have approached their adequacy assessments in the context of the Minimum Wage Directive (Eurofound, 2025a). The second provides an overview of recent research publications on minimum wages, mainly published in 2024 (Eurofound, 2025b). Finally, Eurofound’s minimum wage country profiles complement this report by providing detailed background information on how minimum wage setting is regulated and functions in the EU Member States and Norway." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Baumann, Arne (2025): What Explains Differences in Minimum Wage Growth Between EU Member States? In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 245, H. 1/2, S. 7-44. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2023-0039

Abstract

"There are considerable differences in minimum wage growth between EU member states with national minimum wages. Potential sources for these differences are discrepancies in economic fundamentals and institutional differences in how minimum wages are adjusted. Using a novel dataset based on macroeconomic data, institutional information on minimum wage setting and data on economic policy orientation and elections, the article tests whether growth differences in the minimum wage of 21 EU member states during the time period 2000 to 2020 can be explained by a catch-up dynamic in new EU member states, by different growth models of EU member states or by differences in the actors that are responsible for the adjustment of minimum wages. The results show that across the entire sample and irrespective of actors, minimum wage growth follows consumer price inflation and wage growth most closely. Higher than average minimum wage growth rates in EU member states stem from overshooting inflation during the period of EU accession, reducing wage inequality and increasing the Kaitz index. Actors also mattered for minimum wage growth. Adjustments by social partner consensus led to higher minimum wage growth than the benchmark of indexed minimum wages, introducing a distributive element to minimum wage adjustments." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berger, David, Kyle Herkenhoff & Simon Mongey (2025): Minimum Wages, Efficiency, and Welfare. In: Econometrica, Jg. 93, H. 1, S. 265-301. DOI:10.3982/ecta21466

Abstract

"Many argue that minimum wages can prevent efficiency losses from monopsony power. We assess this argument in a general equilibrium model of oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms. We decompose welfare gains into an efficiency component that captures reductions in monopsony power and a redistributive component that captures the way minimum wages shift resources across people. The minimum wage that maximizes the efficiency component of welfare lies below $8.00 and yields gains worth less than 0.2% of lifetime consumption. When we add back in Utilitarian redistributive motives, the optimal minimum wage is $11 and redistribution accounts for 102.5% of the resulting welfare gains, implying offsetting efficiency losses of −2.5%. The reason a minimum wage struggles to deliver efficiency gains is that with realistic firm productivity dispersion, a minimum wage that eliminates monopsony power at one firm causes severe rationing at another. These results hold under an EITC and progressive labor income taxes calibrated to the U.S. economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Blau, Francine D., Isaac Cohen, Matthew Comey, Lawrence Kahn & Nikolai Boboshko (2025): The Minimum Wage and Inequality Between Groups. (CESifo working paper 12371), München, 50 S.

Abstract

"Using 1979-2019 Current Population Survey data, we study the effect of state and federal minimum wage policies on gender, race, and ethnic inequality. We find that minimum wages substantially reduce intergroup wage inequality at least up to the 20th wage percentile, with no evidence of adverse employment effects. We conduct counterfactual simulations of between-group inequality due to minimum wage changes since 1979. Declines in the real minimum wage in the 1980s slowed progress in narrowing between-group inequality. Relatively small changes in minimum wages during 1989-1998 and 1998-2007 meant little role for the minimum wage over those time spans. Since 2007, several states have steeply raised their minimum wages, especially raising Hispanics' relative wages, because they earn low wages and reside disproportionately in those states. Finally, we find that raising the federal minimum wage to $12/hour in 2020 dollars ($14.49 in 2025Q2 dollars) would reduce existing between-group wage gaps below the 15th percentile by 25-50%." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brochu, Pierre, David A. Green, Thomas Lemieux & James Townsend (2025): The Minimum Wage, Turnover, and the Shape of the Wage Distribution. In: Journal of labor economics, S. 1-58. DOI:10.1086/740189

Abstract

"This paper models the distributional effects of minimum wages using a hazard-based approach that rescales the wage distribution to control for possible employ-ment effects. Contrary to the predictions of a neoclassical model, Job Leaversare not concentrated below the new minimum wage following a minimum wageincrease. For Job Stayers, the spike and spillover effects of the minimum wageare simply shifted right to the new minimum wage. These findings are consistentwith a model where entry wages are set according to a job ladder, and where firmspreserve their internal wage structure due to fairness or internal incentives issues." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Burkhauser, Richard V., Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia (2025): Minimum Wages and Poverty: New Evidence from Dynamic Difference-in-Differences Estimates. In: The Review of Economics and Statistics, S. 1-53. DOI:10.1162/rest_a_01590

Abstract

"This study re-examines Dube (2019), which finds large and statistically significant poverty-reducing effects of the minimum wage. We show that his estimated elasticities are fragile and sensitive to (1) time period under study, (2) choice of macroeconomic controls, (3) limiting counterfactuals to geographically proximate states (“close controls”), which poorly match treatment states' pre-treatment poverty trends, and (4) accounting for potential bias caused by heterogeneous and dynamic treatment effects. Using data spanning nearly four decades from the March Current Population Survey and a dynamic difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, we find that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage is associated with a (statistically insignificant) 0.17 percent increase in the probability of longer-run poverty among all persons. With 95% confidence, we can rule out long-run poverty elasticities with respect to the minimum wage of less than -0.129. Our null results persist across a variety of DiD estimation strategies, including two-way fixed effects, stacked DiD, Callaway and Sant'Anna, and synthetic DiD. We conclude that, to date, the preponderance of evidence suggests that minimum wage increases are an ineffective policy strategy for alleviating poverty." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © MIT Press Journals) ((en))

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Chan, Marc K. & Akbar Zamanzadeh (2025): Minimum wage and employment in the U.S.: an application of Bayesian quantile kink regression. In: Econometric Reviews, Jg. 44, H. 6, S. 673-695. DOI:10.1080/07474938.2025.2451339

Abstract

"We examine whether the employment effects of minimum wage depend on unknown tipping points in the labor market. We apply a continuous threshold regression model—regression kink with unknown thresholds—to U.S. state-level panel data in 1993–2016 to estimate the tipping point and quantile employment effects. Overall, we find that the marginal effect is near-zero or mildly negative below the tipping point, and it is considerably more negative above it. The tipping occurs at 50–55% of the state’s median wage among women and 40–45% among men. Simulations of minimum wage reforms reveal nonlinear and asymmetric employment effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chen, Jiwei & Zhigang Xu (2025): Can minimum wage increases narrow the gender wage gap? Evidence from China. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 57, H. 52, S. 8726-8744. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2024.2402953

Abstract

"Using data from the 2011–2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this paper examines the effect of minimum wage increases on the gender wage gap. The results show that minimum wage increases can significantly reduce the gender wage gap. We further examine the impact of minimum wages on the gender wage gap across the wage distribution and find that minimum wages are conducive to narrowing the gender wage gap at the bottom and middle parts of the wage distribution, but not conducive to reducing the gender wage gap at the upper part of the wage distribution. We also identity heterogeneous effects of minimum wages on the gender wage gap across age, education level, hukou, and work unit. Finally, we find that minimum wages have a negative effect on low-wage workers’ employment. Therefore, governments need to weigh their role in reducing the gender wage gap against the potential negative employment effects when adjusting the minimum wage standard." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chiswick, Barry, Hope Corman, Dhaval M. Dave & Nancy Reichman (2025): Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment of Young Adults with Cognitive Disabilities. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33990), Cambridge, Mass, 43 S.

Abstract

"This study analyzes, for the first time, the effect of increases in the minimum wage on the labor market outcomes of working age adults with cognitive disabilities, a vulnerable and low-skilled sector of the actual and potential labor pool. Using data from the American Community Survey (2008-2023), we estimated effects of the minimum wage on employment, labor force participation, weeks worked, and hours worked among working age individuals with cognitive disabilities using a generalized difference-in-differences research design. We found that a higher effective minimum wage leads to reduced employment and labor force participation among individuals with cognitive disabilities but has no significant effect on labor supply at the intensive margin for this group. Adverse impacts were particularly pronounced for those with lower educational attainment. In contrast, we found no significant labor market effects of an increase in the minimum wage for individuals with physical disabilities or in the non-disabled population." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2025): The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes on Hours Worked: Evidence Using a Partially Pre-Committed Analysis Plan. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17913), Bonn, 69 S.

Abstract

"In a study of recent minimum wage changes (Clemens and Strain, forthcoming), we demonstrate how analyses of longer-run impacts of policy interventions can be pre-specified as extensions to very short-run analyses. This paper uses this novel methodology to study the effects of minimum wage increases on hours worked. Analyzing CPS and ACS data with the empirical specifications from our partially pre-committed analysis plan, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced usual hours worked per week among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just under one hour per week during the decade prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Our estimates of the effects of relatively small minimum wage increases vary across data sets and specifications but are, on average, both economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. We estimate that the elasticity of hours worked with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clemens, Jeffrey, Melissa D. Gentry & Jonathan Meer (2025): Divergent Paths: Differential Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on Individuals with Disabilities. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33437), Cambridge, Mass, 39 S.

Abstract

"We analyze the differential effects of minimum wage increases on individuals with disabilities using data from the American Community Survey and leveraging state-level minimum wage variation during the 2010s. We find that large minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment and labor force participation for individuals of all working ages with severe disabilities. These declines are accompanied by a downward shift in the wage distribution and an increase in public assistance receipt. By contrast, we find no employment effects for all but young individuals with either non-severe disabilities or no disabilities. Our findings highlight important heterogeneities in minimum wage impacts, raising concerns about labor market policies' unintended consequences for populations on the margins of the labor force." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael Strain (2025): The eterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence Using a Partially Pre-Committed Analysis Plan. In: Journal of labor economics. DOI:10.1086/736552

Abstract

"This paper advances the use of partially pre-committed analysis plans in non-experimental research settings. In a study of recent minimum wage changes, we demonstrate how analyses of longer-run impacts of policy interventions can be pre-specified as extensions to very short-run analyses. Further, our pre-analysis plan includes comparisons of the effects of large vs.small minimum wage increases, which is a theoretically motivated dimension ofheterogeneity. We discuss how these use cases harness the strengths of pre-analysis planswhile mitigating their weaknesses. This project’s initial analyses explored CPS and ACS datafrom 2011 through 2015. Alongside these analyses, we pre-committed to analysesincorporating CPS and ACS data extending through 2019. Averaging across thespecifications in our pre-analysis plan, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced employment rates among individuals with low levels of experience andeducation by just over 2 and a half percentage points during the decade prior to the onset ofthe Covid-19 pandemic. Our estimates of the effects of relatively small minimum wage increases vary across data sets and specifications but are, on average, both economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. We estimate that the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clemens, Jeffrey, Olivia Edwards & Jonathan Meer (2025): Did California's Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 34033), Cambridge, Mass, 31 S.

Abstract

"We analyze the effect of California's $20 fast food minimum wage, which was enacted in September 2023 and went into effect in April 2024, on employment in the fast food sector. In unadjusted data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, we find that employment in California's fast food sector declined by 2.7 percent relative to employment in the fast food sector elsewhere in the United States from September 2023 through September 2024. Adjusting for pre-AB 1228 trends increases this differential decline to 3.2 percent, while netting out the equivalent employment changes in non-minimum-wage-intensive industries further increases the decline. Our median estimate translates into a loss of 18,000 jobs in California's fast food sector relative to the counterfactual." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Derenoncourt, Ellora, Francois Gerard, Lorenzo Lagos & Claire Montialoux (2025): Minimum Wages and Informality. (CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 20797), London, 32 S.

Abstract

"How do minimum wages affect informality? We study the near-doubling of the real minimum wage from 2000 to 2009 in Brazil, where 46% of the workforce is informal. Using labor force surveys covering the informal sector, we show the minimum wage exhibits near full passthrough to informal employees working in formal firms, about half of all informal employees. The formal-to-informal reallocation elasticity with respect to the formal wage is small: -0.28. Our findings illustrate how minimum wages can positively affect living standards for workers thought beyond the reach of labor law, a sizable share of the workforce in developing economies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Doucouliagos, Hristos & Katarina Zigova (2025): Minimum Wages and Human Capital Investment: A Meta‐Regression Analysis. In: BJIR, Jg. 63, H. 4, S. 567-586. DOI:10.1111/bjir.12881

Abstract

"We apply meta-regression analysis to assess the effect of the minimum wage on two types of human capital, formal education enrolment and on-the-job training, using 892 reported estimates of these effects. On average, raising the minimum wage reduces enrolment in all countries assessed. The minimum wage has a somewhat moderate positive effect on training in the United States and no significant training effect elsewhere. There is no publication bias in the formal education and modest bias in the training literature. Heterogeneity among reported estimates is primarily driven by data differences, alternative specifications and measures of the relevant variables." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Forth, John, Carl Singleton, Alex Bryson, Van Phan, Felix Ritchie, Lucy Stokes & Damian Whittard (2025): The Impact of a Rising Wage Floor on Labour Mobility Across Firms. In: BJIR, Jg. 63, H. 4, S. 746-757. DOI:10.1111/bjir.70008

Abstract

"In April 2016, the National Living Wage (NLW) raised the statutory wage floor for employees in the United Kingdom aged 25 and above by 50 pence per hour. This uprating was almost double any in the previous decade and expanded the share of jobs covered by the wage floor by around 50%. Using a difference-in-differences approach with linked employer–employee data from the UK's Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, we examine how the introduction and uprating of the NLW affected the likelihood of minimum-wage employees changing firms. We find some evidence that the NLW reduced the rate of job-to-job transitions among such workers, consistent with predictions that an increase in the wage floor discourages job search. However, we find no evidence that the NLW affected differences in job mobility between minimum wage workers and their co-workers in the same firm. Together, these findings suggest that the increased wage floor made quits less attractive to minimum-wage workers in firms with limited opportunities for progression." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Frangioni, Tommaso & Stella Volturo (2025): Organising Changes: The Institutional Work Behind the Implementation of a Minimum Income Scheme. In: Social Policy and Administration, S. 1-10. DOI:10.1111/spol.70026

Abstract

"Policy implementation at the local level is often influenced by the interplay between institutional frameworks and the discretionary power of street-level bureaucrats. This study examines how local welfare agencies in two Italian regions have reacted to the introduction of the Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), the Italian minimum income scheme. Through qualitative research, including interviews with social workers and their managers, this study explores how local actors mediate national policies and navigate structural constraints in a rapidly changing context, adapting the measure and at the same time reorganising their working contexts. The findings show that the implementation of the RdC has led to significant organisational adaptations, including the emergence of informal coordination mechanisms and new forms of professional discretion. Whilst the policy was designed to standardise welfare practises, its practical application varies across local contexts, highlighting the tensions between national mandates and local agency. The findings underscore the pivotal role of street-level bureaucrats in shaping policy implementation, often serving as conduits for interpreting and adapting measures to align with local needs. This research contributes to the extant literature on policy implementation by demonstrating the value of an organisational perspective in understanding welfare policy processes, transcending the conventional divide between top-down and bottom-up approaches. The study's findings imply that a sustained investment in local capacities is important to ensure the efficacy of policy measures. Future welfare reforms could benefit from the insights of this case study by integrating local agency and professional expertise into social policy design." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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García, Jorge Luis, Patrick L. Warren & L. Reed Watson (2025): Basic Income and the Dynamics of Employment and Human Capital in a Non-Urban Disadvantaged Setting. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33891), Cambridge, Mass, 54 S.

Abstract

"Why and when could basic income inhibit employment? We randomize 200 dollars of basic income per month for two years within a non-urban disadvantaged sample tracked using high-frequency administrative data. The amount provided is 21% of average all-source income. In the short term (0.5 years after baseline), relative to the control group, treatment-group employment decreases by 58%, average all-source income remains constant, and health-investment rates increase. In the longer term (1.25 years after baseline), employment and health-investment rates revert to their control-group counterparts. Treatment participants receive basic income, take time off work, address health needs, and, subsequently, reintegrate into employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jha, Priyaranjan, Jyotsana Kala, David Neumark & Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez (2025): City Size, Monopsony, and the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33862), Cambridge, Mass, 28 S.

Abstract

"We assess how minimum wage effects on restaurant employment in the U.S. vary with labor market size and monopsony power. Using city-level data, we construct monopsony proxies based on labor flows and concentration. Minimum wages bind less in larger cities, consistent with the urban wage premium, and omitting this relationship overstates how labor market power reduces adverse employment effects of minimum wages. Nonetheless, accounting for city size, lower job market fluidity is linked to weaker negative employment effects, consistent with search models. By contrast, traditional concentration measures do not consistently predict variation in the effects of minimum wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kazekami, Sachiko & Masahiro Abe (2025): Effects of minimum wage changes on labor demand: analysis using job postings data. In: Applied Economics, S. 1-16. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2025.2579945

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Kim, Jiyoon, Michael Levere & Ellen Magenheim (2025): Do minimum wage increases induce changes in work behavior for people with disabilities? Evidence from the AbilityOne program. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 92. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102663

Abstract

"We provide the first evidence on the effects of minimum wage increases on labor market outcomes for people with disabilities. We use a novel dataset consisting of quarterly data on employment, earnings, and hours for workers at nonprofit firms that participate in the federal AbilityOne program. The nonprofits in this program are offered advantages in government contracting, though must primarily employ workers with disabilities. Using recent local variation in minimum wage changes, we find that increasing the minimum wage does not affect employment outcomes for workers with disabilities in this specific context, with precisely estimated null effects. However, these nonprofits respond along non-employment related margins after relatively large minimum wage increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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Kim, Jung Hyun, Marc Suhrcke & Anja K. Leist (2025): The unintended effects of a large minimum wage increase on health: Evidence from South Korea. In: Social Science & Medicine, Jg. 365. DOI:10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.117626

Abstract

"The 2018 minimum wage increase in South Korea was a major policy change that impacted employment and labour productivity, but its effects on health have not yet been explored. The minimum wage was increased by 16.4% in January 2018, marking the largest increase over two decades and a substantial increase by international standards. While this policy change was a promise of the then-new government, the magnitude of its increase was unexpected. Using a difference-in-differences design with data from the 2016 and 2018 Korean Longitudinal Study on Aging, this study focuses on individuals targeted by the minimum wage policy, particularly older adults earning the minimum wage. Unexpectedly, our results indicate a statistically significant decrease in cognitive function within the targeted group, following the minimum wage hike. However, we did not observe any significant changes in self-reported health. Importantly, for the period 2014 and 2016, when the minimum wage increase was relatively modest, we found positive effects on cognitive health and no negative effects on self-reported health, suggesting that negative effects on cognition emerged only with the large minimum wage increase in 2018. These perhaps unexpected findings may be explained by a significant reduction in the working hours of the targeted group." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 TheAuthors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.) ((en))

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Kozák, Michal & Georg Picot (2025): The politics of the minimum wage: Explaining introduction and levels. In: BJIR, Jg. 63, H. 1, S. 161-179. DOI:10.1111/bjir.12836

Abstract

"There is much economics research on the effects of minimum wages, but little research on their politics. Yet, ever more advanced capitalist democracies have introduced minimum wages, and the setting of minimum wage levels has become increasingly politicized. This article is the first comprehensive study of the politics of the minimum wage: We analyse the determinants of adopting minimum wages as well as what explains variation in their levels over time, based on a dataset of 33 OECD countries from 1960 to 2017. We find that the decline in collective bargaining is the main driving force behind the introduction of ever more minimum wages. At the same time, left-wing parties in government are most likely to adopt a minimum wage when bargaining coverage is low. Left governments are also associated with higher minimum wages, especially when the government has full control over level-setting." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Kudlyak, Marianna, Murat Tasci & Didem Tüzemen (2025): Minimum wage increases and vacancies. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 97. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102765

Abstract

"We use a unique data set and a novel identification strategy to estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on vacancy postings. Utilizing occupation-specific county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board ’s Help Wanted Online for 2005-18, we find that state-level minimum wage increases lead to substantial declines in existing and new vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of workers earning close to the effective minimum wage. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the state-level effective minimum wage reduces vacancies in these occupations relative to the rest by 2.4 percent in the same quarter, and the cumulative effect is as large as 4.5 percent a year later. Focusing on vacancies rather than employment allows us to highlight changes in firms’ hiring intentions in response to minimum wage increases. Coupled with the earlier U.S. evidence showing reductions in separations following minimum wage hikes, our finding of declining vacancies contributes to the broader empirical literature suggesting negligible effects of minimum wage increases on net employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))

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Liu, Enmeng, Weijie Wang & Xiaoyang Yao (2025): How does the minimum wage increase the incomes of low-income residents? In: Applied Economics, S. 1-17. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2025.2589450

Abstract

"The minimum wage system aims to raise the incomes of low-income residents for common prosperity; however, conflicts of interest may affect policy effectiveness. Although employment, enterprise compliance, and government support can help raise low-income residents’ incomes, most studies overlook the interactions among low-income residents, enterprises, and the government under the minimum wage system. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of the minimum wage on low-income residents’ incomes via enterprises’ employment and training and explores the government’s role in reducing negative impacts. This study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model incorporating low-income residents, enterprises, and the government. The results show that employment, enterprises’ compliance with minimum wage standards, and government support of the minimum wage system constitute stable equilibrium points, which increase low-income residents’ incomes. The policy simulation results show that an appropriate minimum wage attracts low-income residents to employment. Combined with training subsidy policies with positive spillover effects, this increases the upper limit of the minimum wage for enterprises and breaks the vicious cycle of low skills leading to low incomes. Furthermore, maintaining a proper gap between the minimum wage and unemployment insurance and ensuring moderate supervision and punishment allow the minimum wage to effectively increase low-income residents’ incomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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López-Bazo, Enrique, Raul Ramos, Vicente Royuela, Oscar Molina, Pablo Sanz De Miguel & Carlos Vacas‑Soriano (2025): Impact of national minimum wages on collective bargaining and wages for low-paid workers. (Eurofound research report / European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions), Dublin, 101 S. DOI:10.2806/2659787

Abstract

"Increases in national minimum wages can have various knock-on effects – they can, for instance, lead to wage rises more generally and can influence the social partners’ latitude in collective bargaining. This report examines how changes to national minimum wages affect collectively agreed and actual wages in selected low-paid jobs and sectors. A quantitative analysis uses the Eurofound database on minimum wages for low-paid workers in collective agreements to analyse the impact of national minimum wages on collectively agreed minimum wages. Data from European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions are used to analyse the impact of national minimum wages on actual wages. A qualitative analysis is based on national case studies of the residential and social care and the manufacture of food and beverages sectors in six Member States: France, Germany, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia and Spain. These Member States were selected because they differ in terms of the interaction between national minimum wages and collectively agreed wages. The analysis finds that, generally, there is a positive association between national minimum wage uprates and changes to both actual and negotiated wages in low-paid sectors, although there are differences among the countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lübker, Malte & Thorsten Schulten (2025): WSI-Mindestlohnbericht 2025. Neuorientierung der Mindestlohnpolitik führt zu realer Aufwertung. In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 78, H. 2, S. 108-121. DOI:10.5771/0342-300x-2025-2-108

Abstract

"Auf Basis von Daten für 38 Länder in Europa und Übersee analysiert der diesjährige WSI-Mindestlohnbericht die Entwicklung der Mindestlöhne zum Stichtag 1. Januar 2025. Innerhalb der Europäischen Union hat sich das nominale Wachstum der Mindestlöhne zwar etwas abgeschwächt, lag mit 6,2 % im Median aber weiterhin verhältnismäßig hoch. Aufgrund rückgängiger Inflationsraten verblieb nach der Preisbereinigung mit 3,8 % im Median aber ein stärkeres Realwachstum als in den Vorjahren. Getragen wird die Entwicklung insbesondere von den osteuropäischen EU-Ländern. Der WSI-Mindestlohnbericht führt die Entwicklung auf eine Neuorientierung der nationalen Mindestlohnpolitiken im Zuge der Umsetzung der Europäischen Mindestlohnrichtlinie zurück. Wie der Bericht zeigt, sind die dort verankerten Schwellenwerte für einen angemessenen Mindestlohn von 60 % des Median- und 50 % des Durchschnittslohns inzwischen in vielen Ländern als Zielvorgaben übernommen worden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Majchrowska, Aleksandra & Sylwia Roszkowska (2025): Does aging matter in the impact of the minimum wage on inflation? (MPRA paper / University Library of Munich 123506), München, 17 S.

Abstract

"We examine how demographic changes impact the transmission of minimum wage increases to inflation. The minimum wage growth can raise the prices of goods and services and accelerate inflationary processes. At the same time, a shrinking workforce and changes in its structure could lead to changes in the impact of minimum wage increases on the economy. We use the minimum wage augmented Phillips curve framework extended with the demographic variables. We employ the sample of 21 European Union countries in 2003-2023 and panel data techniques. Our study proves that the strength of the minimum wage pass-through effects on inflation depends on demographic factors. Aging of the workforce and shrinking workforce size weakens the impact of minimum wage increase on inflation. Contrary, a lower proportion of the less educated working-age population strengthens the minimum wage pass-through effects on inflation. Our results have important implications for macroeconomic, minimum wage, and education policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Melo, Vitor C., Christopher Kaiser, David Neumark, Liya Palagashvili & Michael D. Farren (2025): Minimum Wage Laws and Job Search. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33433), Cambridge, Mass, 37 S.

Abstract

"A large theoretical literature on job search predicts that a higher minimum wage will increase the number of job seekers for affected jobs, which can lead to more job creation and higher employment. This paper uses novel data on job search in all U.S. states to examine the effect of minimum wage increases on the number of job seekers for low-skilled positions. We find no evidence that higher minimum wages increase job search for low-skilled jobs. Instead, the evidence suggests that higher minimum wages decrease the number of workers seeking employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Miller, Stephen, Gary A. Wagner & Alicia Plemmons (2025): Employment effects of minimum wage indexing: Establishment evidence from Oregon restaurants. In: Economic Inquiry, Jg. 63, H. 3, S. 681-714. DOI:10.1111/ecin.13284

Abstract

"Though 18 states will index their minimum wage to the Consumer Price Index by 2025, few studies have examined indexing's differential employment effects. Leveraging a period of stability in minimum wages (2000–2007) and two distinct national geocoded databases of establishments, we explore how indexing affected employment in Oregon restaurants, one of the earliest indexing states (2003). Nearest-neighbor matching is used as a preprocessing step before regression, pairing individual restaurants in Oregon to restaurants with similar characteristics in states where the minimum wage was unchanged. We find evidence that establishment employment falls 3.6% after indexing, implying an employment elasticity of −0.18." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Monray, Jorge & Juan Morillo (2025): Minimum Wage and Effects on Unemployment: The Case of Spain and Its Implications on Simpson’s Paradox and Geographical Mobility. In: International journal of economics and finance, Jg. 17, H. 2, S. 26-44. DOI:10.5539/ijef.v17n2p26

Abstract

"This research explains the effects of the Government’s regular increases in the minimum wages on unemployment in Spain. Using a longitudinal analysis covering the years 2010 to 2023 the research collects data split by gender, age group, and Autonomous Community (AC). The data has been adjusted calculating the minimum wage Mean and Mode values. A negative or inverse correlation between minimum wage variables and unemployment is observed presenting Pearson values between -0.4 and -0.6 in most groups. Also, the research applies a one-way ANOVA test. It shows findings of unemployment reduction, specifically in the categories of young males, even though, the minimum wage in Spain has been regularly increased during the last years, in line with other authors. The aggregated and disaggregated data obtained vary and move in opposite directions confirming in a certain way that the principle of the Simpson’s Paradox could take place here. The research also confirms a relevant Estimated Size Effect (ETA) when comparing Autonomous Communities and their influence on unemployment for 55+ years old people." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Nicolitsas, Daphne (2025): The Minimum Wage in Greece: A Review of Institutional Features, Developments and Effects Between 1975 and 2023. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 245, H. 1-2, S. 79-111. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2023-0041

Abstract

"This paper takes a historical perspective and assesses the evolution of the institutional features in setting the minimum wage in Greece between 1975 and 2023. It also evaluates developments regarding the minimum wage level, its bite and alignment with productivity. The paper reviews the limited available empirical literature on the association of the minimum wage with labour market outcomes (average wages, employment, inequality). It presents new estimates of the elasticity of average wages to the minimum wage. One of the paper’s key points is that the minimum wage setting mechanism has changed over time as the economic environment has changed. Reviewing the evolution of the minimum wage over time to evaluate whether the minimum wage follows productivity developments and whether the minimum wage bites leads to the second and third takeaways of the paper. The minimum wage follows productivity developments over the longer term but not always in the short term. The bite of the minimum wage is high and appears to be higher when government intervention in setting the minimum wage is stronger. As for the impact of the minimum wage on average wages, the new estimates of the elasticity of the average to the minimum wage the paper provides, use more precisely measured wage rates, which show a high elasticity of average to minimum wages. Finally, the review of the existing literature on the employment effects of the minimum wage shows that, as in other countries, the results are mixed with modest negative or no effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Redmond, Paul & Seamus McGuinness (2025): The impact of a minimum wage increase on hours worked: heterogeneous effects by gender and sector. In: Economica, Jg. 92, H. 365, S. 84-106. DOI:10.1111/ecca.12555

Abstract

"A minimum wage increase could lead to adverse employment effects for certain subgroups of minimum wage workers, while leaving others unaffected. This heterogeneity could be overlooked in studies that examine the overall population of minimum wage workers. In this paper, we test for heterogeneous effects of a minimum wage increase on the hours worked of minimum wage employees in Ireland. For all minimum wage workers, we find that a 10% increase in the minimum wage leads to a one-hour reduction in weekly hours worked, equating to an hours elasticity of approximately −0.3. However, for industry workers and those in the accommodation & food sector, the impact is larger, with elasticity −0.8. We also find a negative impact on the hours worked among men on minimum wage, with no significant effect for women. This is due to the disproportionate number of men working in sectors that show the greatest impact on hours. In line with suggestions from the recent literature, we attempt to identify directly those in receipt of minimum wage using hourly wage data, while also studying the dynamic impact on hours worked over multiple time periods using a fully flexible difference-in-differences estimator." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Redmond, Paul, Seamus McGuinness & Elish Kelly (2025): Labour Market Dynamics of Minimum Wage Workers. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17598), Bonn, 16 S.

Abstract

"Ireland is the only country in Europe with a direct question in its Labour Force Survey to identify minimum wage employees. By combining this with the longitudinal component of the Labour Force Survey, we examine the labor market transitions of minimum wage employees over a period of up to five quarters. After one quarter, just over half of minimum wage employees are still on minimum wage while 28 percent have moved to higher pay. After one year, almost half have moved to higher pay, with just one-third remaining on minimum wage. Employees that move to higher pay are more likely to change jobs compared to those that stay on minimum wage. Despite this, the majority (almost 90 percent) of minimum wage employees that transition to higher pay do so with the same employer. We employ a dynamic random effects probit model to estimate the degree of genuine state dependence of minimum wage employment. While there is some degree of true state dependence, much of the persistence in minimum wage employment is due to observed and unobserved heterogeneity, whereby minimum wage employees possess characteristics that result in them entering, and staying on, minimum wage. Our results also indicate that minimum wage employees are about five times more likely than higher paid employees to transition into economic inactivity. However, the majority of these are young people in education, and as such may not be overly concerning to policymakers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Sadowski, Katharine C. (2025): The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Childcare Establishments. (Working papers / U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 2025-53), Washington, DC, 90 S.

Abstract

"Childcare is essential for working families, yet it remains increasingly unaffordable and inaccessible for parents and offers poverty-level wages to many employees. While research suggests minimum wage policies may improve the welfare of low-wage workers, there is also evidence they may increase firm exits, especially among smaller, low-profit firms, which could reduce access and harm consumer well-being. This study is the first to examine these trade-offs in the childcare industry, a labor-intensive, highly regulated sector where capital-labor substitution is limited, and to provide evidence on how minimum wage policies affect a dual-sector labor market in the U.S., where self-employed and waged providers serve overlapping markets. Using variation from state-level minimum wage increases between 1995 and 2019 and unique microdata, I implement a cross-state county border discontinuity design to estimate impacts on the stocks, flows, and composition of childcare establishments. I find that while county-level aggregate establishment stocks and employment remained stable, establishment-level turnover increased, and employment decreased. I reconcile these findings by showing that minimum wage increases prompted reallocation, with larger establishments in the waged-sector more likely to enter and less likely to exit, making this one of the first studies to link null aggregate effects to shifts in establishment composition. Finally, I show that minimum wage increases may negatively affect the self-employed sector, resulting in fewer owners with advanced degrees and more with only high school education. These findings suggest that minimum wage policies reshape who provides care in ways that could affect both quality and access." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Salverda, Wiemer (2025): The Netherlands’ Minimum Wage 1969–2022: Can We Learn from Decline? In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 245, H. 1-2, S. 45-78. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2023-0036

Abstract

"This paper evaluates the evolution of the Dutch minimum wage since its introduction in 1969 and discusses this as an intriguing case suggesting that a deeper, economic analysis of firm and employee behaviors is required for minimum-wage analysis in general. The real level of the minimum wage has fallen tremendously after 1979, all the way back nowadays to the level of the early 1970s, due to the system of uprating and to government interventions. The minimum-wage employment share shows an even stronger decline after 1979, but, surprisingly, the share below the unchanged real minimum wage of 1979 and in bands above this has remained largely unchanged. Intriguingly, firms have continued paying the same. Composition shifts in minimum-wage employment are significant, towards larger enterprise on the demand side and towards part-time employees on the supply side. Nationally and internationally, virtually all available minimum-wage analyses of employment effects focus on rises of the minimum wage and ignore drops. However, OECD data show that declines are surprisingly frequent, making them perfectly normal economic occurrences that firms will account for. I argue that declines deserve examination in their own right, certainly also from a monopsonistic perspective. Plausibly, declines incite different responses from increases, and their analysis will require the examination of heterogeneous behavior of both firms and employees. Such analysis will reinforce the economics of minimum-wage analysis as advocated by David Neumark and its integration in labor economics as advocated by David Card." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Schaitberger, Tim (2025): Minimum or Living Wage? Framing Effects on Preferences and Expectations. In: BJIR, Jg. 63, H. 2, S. 249-265. DOI:10.1111/bjir.12847

Abstract

"Living wage campaigns are widely studied, yet less is known about how the frame differs from the minimum wage regarding public opinion and preferences. Such framing effects hold policy implications, as in 2016, UK Government changed the name of the regulatory wage floor to a living wage, concurrent with calls for welfare benefits cuts. This study explores how using the frame of ‘living’ rather than ‘minimum’ wage changes public socioeconomic expectations and preferences, and examines how a proposed wage increase, ranging from 50p to £6, comparatively influences public support for welfare spending. Methodologically, a sample from the United Kingdom's general population was recruited to participate in a series of online survey experiments. Treatment frames were randomly administered, followed by questions regarding the regulatory wage floor, and socioeconomic and redistributive preferences. Findings suggest introducing the term ‘living wage’ results in (1) higher expected real wages and unemployment effects; (2) raises the preferred wage floor for the United Kingdom and London; (3) greater desire for separate regional wage floors and (4) modest evidence suggesting that a living wage frame increases support for welfare spending. Interestingly, a proposed monetary wage floor increase had a null effect on welfare preferences when calling for a low or modest increase. However, a substantial proposed increase of over 50% led to a sharp reduction in support for benefits spending." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Schemmel, Christian & Georg Picot (2025): Why We Need Minimum Wages: Pay, Recognition, and Economic Citizenship. In: American Political Science Review, Jg. 119, H. 3, S. 1258-1271. DOI:10.1017/s0003055424001096

Abstract

"Statutory minimum wages have become an important tool for regulating labor markets. One major reason is the decline in collective wage bargaining. But how can minimum wages be justified? We show that their best justification does not lie in their economic effects but in the respect for social contributors that they express. The article takes an innovative interdisciplinary approach, bridging political philosophy and comparative political economy. We first discuss existing justifications in political practice and theory. We then show how a distinctive and robust justification should regard minimum wages as paying necessary respect to those who fulfill their obligation to contribute to social cooperation. Our justification thus suggests a new concept of economic citizenship and advances recognition theory applied to work. We outline further implications of the argument, such as the desirability of setting minimum wages through collective bargaining, and a tentative case for a maximum income." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Shaikh, Osama & Selcen Ozturk (2025): Assessing the impact of labour market spendings on unemployment dynamics across demographics in OECD countries. In: Public sector economics, Jg. 49, H. 4, S. 527-562. DOI:10.3326/pse.49.4.2

Abstract

"This study investigates the long-run effects of labour market policies on unemployment dynamics in 36 OECD countries from 2004 to 2022. Derived from second-generation panel methods that address cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, the results indicate that activation policies without providing employment maintenance incentives are associated with higher unemployment. Institutional and public training expenditures mainly reduce youth unemployment, while minimum income benefits and wages contribute to higher adult and total unemployment, reflecting disincentivising effects and wage rigidities. Rising labour force participation increases measured unemployment by re-engaging marginally attached workers. Robustness checks across sub-periods and welfare-regime clusters reveal heterogeneity, showing that policy effects are context-dependent and time-sensitive rather than uniformly stable. Causality tests confirm two-way interactions between unemployment and labour market policies. These findings underscore the need for nuanced, age-specific strategies that integrate activation measures, targeted training, and carefully calibrated income support to promote inclusive and effective labour markets in advanced economies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Sotirakopoulos, Panagiotis, Cahit Guven, Aydogan Ulker & Carol Graham (2025): The impact of minimum wages on overall health and well-being: Global evidence from the Gallup World Poll. In: Social Science & Medicine, Jg. 375. DOI:10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118064

Abstract

"We examine the impact of minimum wage increases on the overall self-reported health and subjective well-being of low-skilled workers using the Gallup World Poll from 2009 to 2020. We identify effects using within-country changes over time and cross-country variations in the timing and intensity of minimum wage increases across 87 countries. Our findings suggest that minimum wage increases benefit health and certain dimensions of subjective well-being. Specifically, we estimate a range of specifications and find that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage leads to an increase in self-reported health ranging from 0 % to 1 % and an increase in satisfaction with the standard of living between 1 % and 6 %, at the outcome means. Minimum wage increases are linked to higher incomes, a lower likelihood of overtime work, enhanced social interactions, and more positive daily experiences. These benefits are especially significant in countries with stronger rule of law, among male workers, and for individuals in nations with free and universal healthcare access. A series of sensitivity and placebo tests confirm the robustness of these findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.) ((en))

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Steenks, Koen, Arjan Heyma & Tobias Vervliet (2025): The Effects of Dutch Youth Minimum Wage Increases on Income Inequality. In: De Economist, Jg. 173, H. 2, S. 299-330. DOI:10.1007/s10645-025-09451-z

Abstract

"This study employs increases in the Dutch Youth Minimum Wage (YMW) in 2017 and 2019 for certain age groups as a natural experiment to examine the impact of changes in minimum wages on income inequality through the employment-channel. Using the Difference-in-Difference (DiD) and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) methods, it estimates the effects of YMW increases on hourly wages and working hours across various income segments. These effects are then used to simulate the monthly income distribution after the YMW increases in 2017 and 2019. This way, a comparative analysis is conducted between the observed income distribution prior to the YMW increases and the simulated income distribution thereafter, focusing on the aspect of income inequality. The findings reveal distinct effects based on the magnitude of the wage increase. Modest increases (for individuals aged 18–19) and substantial increases (for individuals aged 20–22 in 2017 and 20–21 in 2019) both generate spike and spillover effects, influencing individuals earning hourly wages up to at least 120% of the new minimum wage. Small increases reduce working hours for higher-income individuals, while larger increases negatively affect working hours for middle-income earners (100–150% of the new YMW) but benefit those earning below 100% and above 150% of the new threshold. Overall, both small and large YMW increases contribute to income redistribution by altering wages and working hours." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Wang, Tong (2025): Labour market outcomes of minimum wage changes: A behavioural perspective. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 97. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102824

Abstract

"The minimum wage has long been central to labour market policy debates. This paper develops a unified theoretical framework to assess the multifaceted effects of minimum wage hikes on employment, wages, effort, labour productivity, and firms’ profits. The model introduces two key channels: a conventional wage channel, where increased compensation for unskilled workers reduces labour demand, and a novel effort channel, where higher effort and productivity in response to perceived employer generosity mitigate job loss. In equilibrium, firms offer wage premiums above the minimum wage to incentivise effort, with spillovers to higher wages through workers’ fairness considerations. The own-wage employment elasticity for unskilled workers is about −0.026, indicating mild disemployment effects. Moreover, this elasticity shows weak dependence on the business cycle. The framework highlights critical interactions across multiple margins, offering comprehensive insights into the broader impacts of minimum wage policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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Wiltshire, Justin, Carl McPherson, Michael Reich & Denis Sosinskiy (2025): Minimum Wage Effects and Monopsony Explanations. In: Journal of labor economics, S. 1-46. DOI:10.1086/735551

Abstract

"We present the first causal analysis of a seven-year run-up of minimum wages to $15. Using a novel stacked county-level synthetic control estimator and data on fast-food restaurants, we find substantial pay growth and no disemployment. Our results hold among lower-wage counties and counties without local minimum wages. Minimum wage increases reduce Separation rates and raise wages faster than prices at McDonald’s stores; both findings imply a monopsonistic labor market with declining rents. In the tight post-pandemic labor market, when laborsupply becomes more elastic, we find positive employment effects. These become larger and statistically significant after addressing pandemic-response confounds." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Zhang, Weilong & Petra E. Todd (2025): Distributional Effects of Local Minimum Wages: A Spatial Job Search Approach. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 43, H. S1, S. S221-S267. DOI:10.1086/734391

Abstract

"This paper develops a spatial general equilibrium job search model to study the effects of local and universal minimum wage policies on employment, wages, job postings, vacancies, migration, and welfare. Workers search for jobs locally and in neighboring areas, deciding whether to migrate or commute after receiving remote offers. The model, estimated using ACS and QWI data, reliably forecasts commuting responses to city minimum wage hikes. Simulations show that low-skill (noncollege) workers benefit from local wage increases up to $12.50. The greatest per capita welfare gain for all workers is achieved by a $15.25 universal minimum wage." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Belgi Turan (2025): Two birds, one stone: minimum wage and child labor. In: International Journal of Manpower, Jg. 46, H. 1, S. 168-196. DOI:10.1108/ijm-08-2023-0440

Abstract

"Purpose: This paper investigates the impact of quasi-exogenous and substantial increases in the minimum wage on child labor outcomes in Türkiye. The study aims to provide empirical evidence on how minimum wage policies affect child labor outcomes in a developing country context, with a focus on gender and age differences. It seeks to understand whether minimum wage increases lead to a reduction in child labor and whether the impact is different for various demographic groups. Design/methodology/Approach: The research employs a difference-in-differences methodology using data from the 2012 and 2019 Child Labor Force Survey in Türkiye. The treatment group consists of children from households with minimum wage earners, while the control group comprises children from other households. Various labor market outcomes are analyzed, and robustness checks are performed. Findings: Our findings indicate that while the overall effect of minimum wage increases on child labor is statistically insignificant, there are notable heterogeneous impacts across different demographic groups and employment sectors. Specifically, we observe a significant reduction in the employment probability of girls under the age of 15 and unpaid family workers. Additionally, the likelihood of younger children being wage earners decreases, and the minimum wage increase reduces employment in the agriculture and services sectors for certain subgroups. The impact is also more limited for children in single-adult-worker households. Social implications: These results underscore the varying effects of minimum wage policies on child labor and highlight the importance of considering demographic and sectoral differences in policy formulation. Policymakers should complement such policies with income-generating programs and targeted education initiatives to address child labor issues more comprehensively and sustainably. Originality/value: This study fills a critical gap in the limited international literature on the causal effects of minimum wage policies on child labor incidence. One notable exception, Menon and van der Meulen Rodgers (2018) have explored the impact of minimum wage on child labor in India using regional variation, our study uniquely analyzes the effects at the household level in Türkiye. This approach provides valuable insights into how minimum wage changes affect child labor outcomes in a developing economy context with a high prevalence of minimum wage earners. It also contributes to the broader economic understanding of child labor and household income dynamics." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group)

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Černiauskas, Nerijus & Jose Garcia-Louzao (2025): The earnings distribution in Lithuania: the role of the minimum wage. In: Journal of Economic Inequality. DOI:10.1007/s10888-025-09692-7

Abstract

"In this paper, we investigate how the minimum wage has shaped the earnings distribution in Lithuania between 2010 and 2019. We rely on a distribution regression framework and detailed Social Security records to characterize the earnings distribution along with the minimum wage incidence at a monthly frequency. According to our preferred estimates, our results imply that minimum wage increases can explain about 32% (40%) of the decline in total (bottom-tail) earnings inequality and up to 20% of average earnings growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

Abstract

"The European Union is facing important challenges as it navigates a changing global economic and political landscape. In this context, this joint report by the SPC and the European Commission highlights the crucial need for a strong social Europe with reliable safety nets. By promoting active inclusion, our goal is to improve the lives of those who are furthest from the labour market, while also strengthening social cohesion within the EU. This report is an opportunity to take stock of our progress in delivering on the European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR), especially principle 14 on adequate minimum income (MI), and to outline the way forward." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Adamopoulou, Effrosyni, Francesco Manaresi, Omar Rachedi & Emircan Yurdagul (2024): Minimum wages and insurance within the firm. (ZEW discussion paper 24-021), Mannheim, 66 S.

Abstract

"Minimum wages generate an asymmetric pass-through of firm shocks across workers. We establish this result leveraging employer-employee data on Italian metalmanufacturing firms, which face different wage floors that vary within occupations. In response to negative firm productivity shocks, workers close to the wage floors experience higher job separations but no wage loss. However, the wage of high-paid workers decreases, and more so in firms with higher incidence of minimum wages. A neoclassical model with complementarities across workers with different skills rationalizes these findings. Our results uncover a novel channel that tilts the welfare gains of minimum wages toward low-paid workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ahn, Taehyun (2024): Minimum wage and self-employed business owners: Evidence from South Korea. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 88. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102539

Abstract

"This study examines the influences of minimum wage on self-employment exits, using recent changes in the minimum wage level in South Korea. Using the cross-industry variation on the impact of the minimum wage—the proportion of workers whose wages are below the minimum wage in the upcoming year—combined with individual longitudinal data, I estimate the model of self-employment exits. Overall, the estimates show that the minimum wage hike has no significant impact on self-employed workers. However, it increases the likelihood of the business closing for the self-employed who hire employees. The results imply that a ten percent increase in the minimum wage raises the exit probability by 2.6 percentage points, which is 30.9 % of the average exit rate for those with employees. Moreover, the exits are significantly associated with the transition to non-employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Alessandrini, Diana & Joniada Milla (2024): Minimum Wage Effects on Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Canadian Data. In: Journal of Human Capital, Jg. 18, H. 2, S. 346-376. DOI:10.1086/728084

Abstract

"We investigate the impact of the minimum wage on individuals’ post-secondary schooling decisions. Using Canadian longitudinal data, we explore 136 minimum wage amendments and find three novel results. First, the minimum wage affects both thequantity and type of human capital acquired by students. A 10% increase in the minimum wage increases community-college enrollment by 6.2% but reduces University enrollment by 6.5%. Second, high minimum wages widen the university participation gap between individuals with different levels of parental education. Finally, Minimum wage hikes encourage workers who recently separated from their job to return to post-secondary education as mature students" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Arnadillo, Juan J., Amadeo Fuenmayor & Rafael Granell (2024): The relationship between minimum wage and employment. A synthetic control method approach. In: The Economic and Labour Relations Review, Jg. 35, H. 3, S. 771-791. DOI:10.1017/elr.2024.44

Abstract

"Spain increased its minimum wage (MW) by 22% in 2019. Given the intense debate in the economic literature on the impact of MW increases on the labour market, we conduct an impact assessment of this policy. The synthetic control method will be used to replicate the Spanish labour market by means of a pool of European countries that, in the absence of other reliable measures, simulates the evolution of Spanish employment. This will allow us to identify the causal effect from the increase in the MW. After applying the technique, the increase in the MW is found to have no effect on employment. The results have been subjected to robustness tests such as leave one out or segmentation by gender or age." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Aumayr-Pintar, Christine, Carlos Vacas-Soriano, Jakub Kostolný & Marco Seghesio (2024): Minimum wages in 2024: Annual review. (Eurofound research report / European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions), Dublin, 94 S.

Abstract

"Minimum wages protect workers from unjustified low wages and ensure a level playing field for companies. All EU Member States and Norway have minimum wages in place, albeit in different forms. Among the 27 Member States, 22 have a national minimum wage, with one (or sometimes more than one) rate setting a basic wage floor. In addition, collective agreements are used to further regulate pay and usually set rates above the national minimum wage. In the remaining five Member States and Norway, minimum wages are set in sectorlevel collective agreements, which includes a high coverage of workers in these countries. The 2024 version of this annual review provides an update on minimum wage developments, details how the rates were set and which criteria were used in their adjustment, and maps the influence of EU-level policy on minimum wage setting." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Azar, José, Emiliano Huet-Vaughn, Ioana Marinescu, Bledi Taska & Till von Wachter (2024): Minimum Wage Employment Effects and Labor Market Concentration. In: The Review of Economic Studies, Jg. 91, H. 4, S. 1843-1883. DOI:10.1093/restud/rdad091

Abstract

"This paper shows that more highly concentrated labor markets experience more positive employment effects of the minimum wage. In the most concentrated labor markets, employment rises following a minimum wage increase. The paper establishes its main findings by studying the effects of local minimum wage increases on a key low-wage retail sector, and using data on labor market concentration that covers the entirety of the U.S. with fine spatial variation at the occupation level. The results carry over to the fast-food sector and the entire low-wage labor market and are robust to using proxies of labour market concentration available for a broader range of industries, such as the number of establishments and population density. A model of oligopsonistic competition can explain these effects: there is more room to increase wages in high-concentration areas where wages tend to be further below marginal productivity. These findings provide evidence supporting monopsonistic wage setting as an explanation for the near-zero minimum wage employment effect documented in prior work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bezooijen, Emiel van, Wiljan van den Berge & Anna Salomons (2024): The Young Bunch: Youth Minimum Wages and Labor Market Outcomes. In: ILR review, Jg. 77, H. 3, S. 428-460. DOI:10.1177/00197939241239317

Abstract

"The authors estimate the effects of an increase in the youth minimum wage in the Netherlands on low-paid workers’ employment and earnings, using a difference-in-differences approach with detailed administrative data. Findings show that the increase does not have a negative effect on the number of jobs or hours worked, hence raising overall earnings for affected workers. Further, the minimum wage increase has substantial spillover effects, accounting for close to 70% of the average wage increase experienced by workers. While employment grows in fixed-term and temporary help agency contracts, the authors do not find evidence of declines in employment in other types of work arrangements, nor of labor-labor substitution. Labor market outcomes evolve most favorably for full-time incumbent workers who are not enrolled in education and are thus less likely to be transient occupants of minimum wage jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dao, Ngoc (2024): Federal minimum wage expansion to homecare workers: Employment and income effects. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 87. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102511

Abstract

"The rapid growth of the home care industry coincides with increases in the proportion of the population over 65 years of age and more likely to need assistance with basic daily activities due to illness or disability. Yet, the growth in home care use has been accompanied by concerns about the quality of the care provided. Higher wages and better legal protection might improve the quality of home health care services. This study examines the 2013 Home Care Rule promulgated by the Department of Labor, which added home care workers to the groups covered under the federal minimum wage with minimum hourly and overtime rates. The results show large effects (7–9 %) on part-time employment increase, small effects on work hour reduction (by 2–4 %), and nonnegative effect on overall employment level following the expansion. Despite the decline in hours worked, there is no negative impact on earnings among homecare workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Derenoncourt, Ellora & David Weil (2024): Voluntary Minimum Wages. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 32546), Cambridge, Mass, 90 S.

Abstract

"Recent wage growth at the bottom of the earnings distribution in the U.S. has reversed a decades-long trend of widening wage inequality. Numerous state and local minimum wage increases have overtaken an effectively non-binding federal minimum, and robust labor demand in the post-pandemic recovery drove wage growth in the low-wage sector. An increasingly pervasive phenomenon over this same period (2014-2023) is the use of company-wide, voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) by private employers, including some of the largest U.S. retailers. We use anonymized payroll data for thousands of firms collected by a major credit bureau to study the effects of these policies on large retailers' own wages and employment, as well as spillover effects onto other employers in shared labor markets, variously defined. Using stacked event studies centered around multiple VMW events and a continuous treatment variable defined as the gap between local area wages and the company minimum, we find that VMWs result in sizable wage increases and reductions in turnover at the companies that implemented them. Turning to wages at other companies, including those connected to the large retailer by worker flows, we estimate precise, economically negligible spillover effects. Despite the decline in separations from companies with voluntary minimums, overall hiring rates at connected employers do not decline, consistent with substitutability across new hires. Although voluntary minimum wage policies have affected over 3 million jobs among the largest retailers, their impact on the broader labor market is limited." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Devereux, Kevin & Zuzanna Studnicka (2024): Non-monotonic employment effects by market structure and minimum wage level. (CLEF working paper series / Canadian Labour Economics Forum 66), Waterloo, ON, 62 S.

Abstract

"Minimum wages decrease employment in competitive markets, but can increase it in monopsonistic markets so long as they do not exceed the marginal product of labor. We find evidence of non-monotonicity both by market structure and minimum wage level. Minimum wage hikes initially increase hours worked for minimum wage workers (MWWs) in high-concentration local labor markets (LLMs), while increasing job loss likelihood for MWWs in low-concentration LLMs. Repeated hikes reverse initial hours gains, and may increase job loss. Non-MWWs show economically negligible responses throughout. Observing minimum wage status allows for both within- and across-market difference-in-difference designs, whose findings provide mutual support. We combine these into a triple-difference specification. Our results help to resolve the lack of consensus around the sign of the minimum wage's employment effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dingeldey, Irene & Ilana Nussbaum Bitran (2024): The European Minimum Wage Directive – and why it is a challenge to trade unions' but not employers' unity. In: Economic and Industrial Democracy, Jg. 45, H. 2, S. 489-510. DOI:10.1177/0143831X231161840

Abstract

"The proposal of a European minimum wage directive by the European Commission was supposed to improve working conditions. This article asks why such an initiative created a challenge to the unity of unions, but not of employers’ associations at transnational level. The authors provide a network analysis of the communication structure of social partners. Applying Scharpf’s concepts of positive and negative integration and Hirschman’s typology of exit, voice and loyalty, the authors use qualitative methods to show how employers stayed loyal and united towards negative integration, while different voices arose within the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) leading to the temporary ‘exit’ of the Swedish Trade Union Confederation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dosi, Giovanni & Maria Enrica Virgillito (2024): Minimum Wage for Italy: From Social Justice to Productive Efficiency. In: Intereconomics, Jg. 59, H. 4, S. 231-235. DOI:10.2478/ie-2024-0046

Abstract

"This article discusses the case of the minimum wage for Italy as a policy instrument to foster both social justice and productive efficiency. After briefly reviewing the empirical evidence on the effects of minimum wages upon employment, wage distribution and firmlevel reallocation, it presents a series of channels, from the micro to the macro level that can represent transmission mechanisms able to trigger positive feedback loops in the macroeconomic system." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dube, Arindrajit & Ben Zipperer (2024): Own-Wage Elasticity: Quantifying the Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 32925), Cambridge, Mass, 61 S.

Abstract

"The own-wage elasticity (OWE) of employment estimated using minimum wage increases provides an economically meaningful measure of the policy on jobs. We discuss how to interpret the magnitude of the OWE, including in terms of welfare and under alternative models of the labor market. We present a comprehensive set of OWE estimates from 88 studies and introduce an regularly updated repository of the estimates---https://economic.github.io/owe---an up-to-date snapshot of the existing literature for scholars and policymakers. We find that most studies to date suggest a fairly modest impact of minimum wages on jobs: the median OWE estimate of 72 studies published in academic journals is -0.13, which suggests that only around 13 percent of the potential earnings gains from minimum wage increases are offset due to associated job losses. Estimates published since 2010 tend to be closer to zero." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dube, Arindrajit & Attila Lindner (2024): Minimum Wages in the 21st Century. (RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2024,25), Berlin, 127 S.

Abstract

"This chapter surveys the literature on the impact of minimum wages on low-wage labor markets. We describe and critically review the empirical methods in the new minimum wage literature, particularly those leveraging quasi-experimental variation. We provide a quantitative overview of the most recent evidence on the employment and wage effects of the policy, while also exploring emerging research on its impact on other margins, including amenities, other inputs (such as capital and high-skilled workers), firm entry and exit, output prices and demand, profits, and productivity. This approach allows us to present a comprehensive picture of how minimum wage policies affect firms, workers, and labor markets. We also review the evidence on the policy’s impact on wage inequality and income distribution. Finally, we discuss how these effects can vary depending on the economic context and the level of a country's development." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Egger, Hartmut, Udo Kreickemeier & Jens Wrona (2024): Monopsony Power, Offshoring, and a European Minimum Wage. (CESifo working paper 10920), München, 24 S.

Abstract

"This paper sets up a two-country model of offshoring with monopolistically competitive product and monopsonistically competitive labor markets. In our model, an incentive for offshoring exists even between symmetric countries, because shifting part of the production abroad reduces local labor demand and allows firms to more strongly execute their monopsonistic labor market power. However, offshoring between symmetric countries has negative welfare effects and therefore calls for policy intervention. In this context, we put forward the role of a common minimum wage and show that the introduction of a moderate minimum wage increases offshoring and reduces welfare. In contrast, a sizable minimum wage reduces offshoring and increases welfare. Beyond that, we also show that a sufficiently high common minimum wage cannot only eliminate offshoring but also inefficiencies in the resource allocation due to monopsonistic labor market distortions in closed economies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Firpo, Sergio & Alysson Portella Lorenzon (2024): The labor market in Brazil, 2001–2022. (IZA world of labor 441), Bonn, 10 S. DOI:10.15185/izawol.441.v2

Abstract

"In the first decade of the 21st century, the Brazilian economy experienced an important expansion followed by a significant decline in inequality. The minimum wage increased rapidly, reducing inequality with no negative effects on employment or formality. This resulted from economic growth and greater supply of skilled labor. However, from 2014-2021, real wages were stagnant, and unemployment rates surged. Inequality rose again, although only marginally. Some positive signs emerged in 2022, although it is still too early to know whether they mark a return to past trends or a recovery from the pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fossati, Sebastian & Joseph Marchand (2024): First to $15: Alberta's Minimum Wage Policy on Employment by Wages, Ages, and Places. In: ILR review, Jg. 77, H. 1, S. 119-142. DOI:10.1177/00197939231213064

Abstract

"Most minimum wage studies are identified on small, plentiful, mostly expected wage changes, spread out over time. A recent set of changes have instead been large, rapid, and unexpected, following the “Fight for $15” movement. Alberta is the first North American province, state, or territory to have this $15 minimum wage, with an unexpectedly large increase (47%) occurring over a short time horizon (3 years). The employment effects of this policy are estimated using a synthetic control approach on Labour Force Survey data. Similar to the existing literature, workers moved up the wage distribution, increment by increment, but with a higher distributional reach. Employment losses occurred at similar elasticities, but with large level changes, mostly among younger workers. Newer to the literature, regional employment losses were found in four of the five non-urban economic regions, but not in Alberta’s two main cities, showing the significance and nuance of regional heterogeneity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Giupponi, Giulia, Robert Joyce, Attila Lindner, Tom Waters, Thomas Wernham & Xiaowei Xu (2024): The Employment and Distributional Impacts of Nationwide Minimum Wage Changes. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 42, H. S1, S. S293-S333. DOI:10.1086/728471

Abstract

"We assess the impact of nationwide minimum wages on employment throughout the whole wage distribution by exploiting geographical variation in the level of wages. We find a substantial increase in wages at the bottom of the wage distribution, while we detect a small, statistically insignificant negative effect on employment. Combining the estimated change in the wage distribution with a tax and benefit microsimulation model, we show that the minimum wage generates considerable proportional income gains up to the middle of the household income distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Godøy, Anna, Michael Reich, Jesse Wursten & Sylvia Allegretto (2024): Parental Labor Supply. Evidence from Minimum Wage Changes. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 59, H. 2, S. 416-442. DOI:10.3368/jhr.1119-10540r2

Abstract

"We analyze effects of the minimum wage on the labor supply of parents of young children. Distributional difference-in-differences and event-study models document a sharp rise in employment rates of single mothers with children ages zero to five following minimum wage increases. Effects are concentrated among jobs paying close to the minimum wage. We find corresponding drops in the probability of staying out of the labor force to care for family members. Results are consistent with simple labor supply models in which childcare costs create barriers to employment. Minimum wage increases then enable greater labor force participation and reduce child poverty." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))

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Jardim, Ekaterina, Mark C. Long, Robert Plotnick, Jacob Vigdor & Emma Wiles (2024): Local minimum wage laws, boundary discontinuity methods, and policy spillovers. In: Journal of Public Economics, Jg. 234. DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105131

Abstract

"We use geographically precise longitudinal employment data documenting worker job-to-job mobility to study policy spillovers in the context of three local minimum wage increases. Estimated spillover impacts on wages and hours are statistically significant, geographically diffuse, and sufficient to create concern regarding interpretation of results even using not-immediately-adjacent regions as controls. Spillover effects appear less concerning with smaller interventions or those adopted in smaller jurisdictions. The boundary discontinuity method of causal inference may yield misleading results if a policy’s impacts do not stop at the border of the implementing jurisdiction." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Kalenkoski, Charlene Marie (2024): The effects of minimum wages on youth employment, unemployment, and income. Minimum wages reduce entry-level jobs, training, and lifetime income. (IZA world of labor 243,2), Bonn, 10 S. DOI:10.15185/izawol.243.v2

Abstract

"Empirische Studien belegen, dass Mindestlöhne die Beschäftigungschancen für junge Geringqualifizierte reduzieren. Zwar profitieren diejenigen, die einen Job finden, von höheren Einstiegslöhnen. Für arbeitslose Jugendliche wird der Arbeitsmarkteinstieg dagegen schwerer, was zu langfristigen Einkommenseinbußen führt. Das Lebenseinkommen sinkt zusätzlich aufgrund mangelnder betrieblicher Qualifizierungsangebote. Auszubildende sollten daher vom Mindestlohn ausgenommen sein. Durch staatliche Unterstützung in Form von Geld- oder Sachleistungen ließe sich ungelernten Jugendlichen effektiver helfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kozák, Michal, Georg Picot & Peter Starke (2024): Do minimum wages crowd out union density? In: BJIR, Jg. 62, H. 4, S. 760-778. DOI:10.1111/bjir.12809

Abstract

"Minimum wage legislation has spread across rich democracies in recent decades in response to rising inequality and in-work poverty. However, there are concerns that state regulation of wages could reduce incentives to join a union. We empirically test this crowding out hypothesis, using (1) an event-study macro-level analysis of trade union density in 19 advanced capitalist countries between 1960 and 2017 and (2) a multi-level analysis of 32 countries (1981−2020) where we use individual-level union membership as dependent variable. We find no evidence that statutory minimum wage adoption crowds out union density. We also test whether the most vulnerable groups of employees (young, low-skilled and low-income) have a lower propensity to join a union when a minimum wage is introduced but find no effect either." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Lenhart, Otto & Kalyan Chakraborty (2024): Income assistance programs and population health – The dual impact of minimum wages and the earned income tax credit. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 234. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111508

Abstract

"In this study, we provide new evidence on the interaction of state-level minimum wages and Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) laws on several measures of population health. Using data from the National Vital Statistics Reports between 1999 and 2018, we estimate difference-in-differences models to evaluate the dual impact of minimum wages and the EITC on various causes of mortality, such as suicides, motor accidents and assaults. While several researchers have examined the health effects of both these policies separately, few studies have examined the potential interaction effects of these policies. Specifically, while previous work has provided evidence that both minimum wages and the EITC can reduce suicide rates, our study contributes to the literature by showing that the policies have a positive dual impact on population health. We find that a $1 increase in minimum wages reduces death rates due to suicides and assaults by 3.8 percent and 15.2 percent in states with EITC laws, respectively. In contrast, we show that minimum wages do not impact these outcomes in states without state-level EITC laws." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Li, Li & Haoming Liu (2024): The minimum wage and cross-community crime disparities. In: Journal of Population Economics, Jg. 37. DOI:10.1007/s00148-024-01023-w

Abstract

"This study examines the heterogeneous impacts of minimum wages, which could affect low-income workers' earnings and employment opportunities, on crime rates across neighboring communities. Using geo-tagged reported crime incident data from 18 major U.S. cities, we find that minimum wage increases reduce violent crime rates notably more in low-income communities than in high-income ones. On average, a one-dollar real minimum wage increase narrows the disparity in quarterly violent crime rates between low- and high-income communities by 12%. The impact varies considerably across different types of cities. The income effect resulting from raising the minimum wage is the main contributing factor." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Liu, Qing, Ruosi Lu, Stephen Teng Sun & Meng Zhang (2024): Unintended workplace safety consequences of minimum wages. In: Journal of Public Economics, Jg. 239. DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105247

Abstract

"We investigate the unintended impact of minimum wage increases on workplace safety. Using establishment-level data from the United States and a cohort-based stacked difference-in-differences design, we find that large increases in minimum wages have significant adverse effects on workplace safety. Our findings indicate that, on average, a large minimum wage increase results in a 4.6 percent increase in the total case rate. Event study estimates show that this adverse effect persists in the medium run. Furthermore, we find a more salient effect for firms more likely to be financially constrained or subject to a higher labor market rigidity in firing workers. We provide suggestive evidence that small minimum wage increases might reduce injury rates, highlighting the potential heterogeneity in the impact of minimum wage changes. We do not find evidence that capital-labor substitution could be behind the findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Lübker, Malte & Thorsten Schulten (2024): WSI-Mindestlohnbericht 2024: Reale Zugewinne durch die Umsetzung der Europäischen Mindestlohnrichtlinie. (WSI-Report 93), Düsseldorf, 21 S.

Abstract

"In den meisten EU-Staaten kam es zum 1. Januar 2024 zu deutlichen Erhöhungen der Mindestlöhne. Diese reichten trotz anhaltend hoher Inflationsraten in der Mehrzahl der Mitgliedsländer aus, um die Kaufkraft des Mindestlohns zu erhalten oder sogar auszubauen. Begünstigt wurde die Mindestlohndynamik auch durch die im Herbst 2022 verabschiedete Europäische Mindestlohnrichtlinie. Viele Mitgliedsländer streben im Zuge der Umsetzung der EU-Richtlinie an, die dort verankerten Referenzwerte von 60 % des Medianlohns bzw. 50 % des Durchschnittslohns zu erreichen. Anders verlief die Entwicklung in Deutschland: Hier plädierte die Mindestlohnkommission gegen die Stimmen der Gewerkschaften nur für eine geringe Anhebung des Mindestlohns, die hinter die Preisentwicklung zurückfällt." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Lübker, Malte & Thorsten Schulten (2024): WSI-Mindestlohnbericht 2024. (WSI-Report 93), Düsseldorf, 23 S.

Abstract

"In den meisten EU-Staaten kam es zum 1. Januar 2024 zu deutlichen Erhöhungen der Mindestlöhne. Diese reichten trotz anhaltend hoher Inflationsraten in der Mehrzahl der Mitgliedsländer aus, um die Kaufkraft des Mindestlohns zu erhalten oder sogar auszubauen. Begünstigt wurde die Mindestlohndynamik auch durch die im Herbst 2022 verabschiedete Europäische Mindestlohnrichtlinie. Viele Mitgliedsländer streben im Zuge der Umsetzung der EU-Richtlinie an, die dort verankerten Referenzwerte von 60 % des Medianlohns bzw. 50 % des Durchschnittslohns zu erreichen. Anders verlief die Entwicklung in Deutschland: Hier plädierte die Mindestlohnkommission gegen die Stimmen der Gewerkschaften nur für eine geringe Anhebung des Mindestlohns, die hinter die Preisentwicklung zurückfällt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Maccarrone, Vincenzo (2024): The Europeanization of Wage Policy and Its Consequences for Labor Politics: The Case of Ireland. In: ILR review, Jg. 77, H. 5, S. 716-741. DOI:10.1177/00197939241268065

Abstract

"This article investigates the transnational labor politics associated with the Europeanization of wage policy, based on process tracing of Irish minimum wage regulation reforms over the past two decades. The policy struggle in Ireland started as an employer-led domestic challenge to market-embedding regulation and was then affected by two EU interventions on wage policy: one with a de-regulatory orientation (during EU-IMF conditionality) and one with a re-regulatory one (with the approval of the EU minimum wage directive). Findings show that differences in collective action undertaken by employers and trade unions to influence wage policy at the national level can be explained by the intersection of each actor’s preferences toward market-constraining or liberalizing labor regulation and their access to supranational (EU-level) institutions and support. This analysis contributes to debates on how transnational opportunity structures can alter labor’s and employers’ local power resources and strategies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Marchingiglio, Riccardo & Michael Poyker (2024): The Economics of Gender-Specific Minimum Wage Legislation. In: Journal of labor economics. DOI:10.1086/733493

Abstract

"Using full count U.S. census data, we study the impact of early 20th-century state-industry-specific minimum wage laws that primarily targeted female employees. Our triple-difference estimates suggest a null impact of the minimum wage laws, potentially reflecting disemployment effects and the positive selection bias of the workers remaining in the labor force. When comparing county-industry Trends between counties straddling state borders, female employment is lower by around 3.1% in affected county-industry cells. We further investigate the implications for own-wage elasticity of labor demand as afunction of cross-industry concentration, the channels of substitution between men and women, and heterogeneity by marital status." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Marchingiglio, Riccardo & Mikhail Poyker (2024): The Economics of Gender-Specific Minimum Wage Legislation. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17016), Bonn, 79 S.

Abstract

"Using full count U.S. census data, we study the impact of early 20th-century state-industry-specific minimum wage laws that primarily targeted female employees. Our triple-difference estimates suggest a null impact of the minimum wage laws, potentially reflecting disemployment effects and the positive selection bias of the workers remaining in the labor force. When comparing county-industry trends between counties straddling state borders, female employment is lower by around 3.1% in affected county-industry cells. We further investigate the implications for own-wage elasticity of labor demand as a function of cross-industry concentration, the channels of substitution between men and women, and heterogeneity by marital status." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Neumark, David (2024): The effects of minimum wages on (almost) everything? A review of recent evidence on health and related behaviors. In: Labour, Jg. 38, H. 1, S. 1-65. DOI:10.1111/labr.12263

Abstract

"I review and assess the evidence on minimum wage effects on health outcomes and health‐related behaviors. The evidence on physical health points in conflicting directions, leaning toward adverse effects. Research on effects on diet and obesity sometimes points to beneficial effects, whereas other evidence indicates that higher minimum wages increase smoking and drinking and reduce exercise (and possibly hygiene). In contrast, there is evidence that higher minimum wages reduce suicides, partly consistent with the evidence of positive or mixed effects on other measures of mental health/depression. Overall, policy conclusions that minimum wages improve health are unwarranted or at least premature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Neumark, David & Emma Wohl (2024): Do Higher Tipped Minimum Wages Reduce Race, Ethnic, or Gender Earnings Gaps for Restaurant Workers? (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 32964), Cambridge, Mass, 61 S.

Abstract

"One of the arguments increasingly made to support large minimum wage increases is that they decrease wage or earnings gaps for minorities or women (e.g., Derenoncourt and Montialoux, 2021). The argument is often made with particular reference to higher tipped minimum wages for restaurant workers, because of discrimination in tipping that is immune to equal pay policy requirements. Of course, even if higher tipped minimum wages reduce hourly pay differences between groups, increases in tipped minimum wages can reduce employment or hours among restaurant workers (Neumark and Yen, 2023), and these effects could differ by race and gender, so implications for hourly earnings do not necessarily extend to overall earnings. We estimate the impact of variation in tipped minimum wages – or, equivalently, tip credits – on earnings of restaurant workers (which ignores employment variation but incorporates hours variation). We find that tipped minimum wages raise hourly earnings of women, but not of Blacks or Hispanics. But tipped minimum wages generally do not raise weekly earnings for these groups (because of hours declines for women). In contrast, regular minimum wages boost hourly and weekly earnings of all three groups of restaurant workers, with the effects arising from non-tipped workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pan, Rui & Dao-Zhi Zeng (2024): Goods market desirability of minimum wages. In: Economica, Jg. 91, H. 364, S. 1255-1290. DOI:10.1111/ecca.12544

Abstract

"This paper presents a general equilibrium model incorporating heterogeneous firms and a perfectly competitive labor market to explore the desirability of minimum wages. We demonstrate that a low minimum wage could enhance social welfare, assuming equal weighting for all individuals. This occurs because the introduction of minimum wages has the potential to mitigate the goods market distortions arising from imperfect competition, firm heterogeneity and free entry. Additionally, we illustrate that the optimal minimum wage is positively associated with the preference intensity for differentiated products relative to the numeraire and population size, while it negatively correlates with the degree of love for variety, entry cost, and upper bound of marginal labor requirements." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Paz Báñez, Manuela A. de, Celia Sánchez-López & María José Asensio-Coto (2024): Effects of the Minimum Wage (MW) on Income Inequality: Systematic Review and Analysis of the Spanish Case. In: Economies, Jg. 12, H. 9. DOI:10.3390/economies12090223

Abstract

"The minimum wage has become a standard measure in the economic and social policies of countries all over the world. The primary objective of this measure is to guarantee that workers receive a minimum wage that allows them to lead a decent life, thereby reducing inequality and poverty. However, studies on the minimum wage have not focused on assessing the effects on these dimensions but only on employment. The objective of this study is to address this research gap by analysing the effects of minimum wage increases on income inequality and poverty. To this end, firstly, a systematic review of the empirical analyses was conducted using the PRISMA methodology, with a view to ensuring that all empirical evidence was available. Secondly, the Spanish case was examined. The significant increase in minimum wage in Spain in 2019 (21.3% in real terms) presents an invaluable opportunity to utilise this event as a natural experiment to generate new evidence. A difference-in-differences approach was employed to assess the impact of this phenomenon in the period 2018-2019 with microdata from European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC for Spain). In doing so, two basic scientific contributions were made. The first one, a systematic, exhaustive, and up-to-date literature review (up to June 2024), as there is, to our knowledge, no recent systematic review of this relationship (minimum wage vs. inequality). The available evidence indicates a clear inverse relationship between the minimum wage and inequalities and poverty. The second one, regarding the Spanish case, there has been a dearth of scientific studies on this subject. Thus, this paper provides new scientific evidence demonstrating that a significant increase in the minimum wage can significantly improve the income of low-wage earners, thereby reducing income inequality and in-work poverty. Furthermore, there is evidence of a spillover effect towards income groups closer to the treatment group." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Regmi, Krishna (2024): Minimum Wages and the Uptake of Supplemental Security Income. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17074), Bonn, 60 S.

Abstract

"This study investigates whether the minimum wage affects the uptake of Supplemental Security Income (SSI). To disentangle the effect of the minimum wage from underlying macroeconomic conditions, I use a triple-differences-type model that exploits cross-state and temporal differences in the minimum wage and its differential effects on those individuals with and without a high school diploma. The results show that a one percent increase in the minimum wage leads to a 0.33 percent decline in SSI uptake. To substantiate the findings, this study employs an alternative approach, leveraging the discontinuity in minimum wage legislation at state borders by comparing SSI uptake within the contiguous state-border counties. Using this approach yields qualitatively similar findings, corroborating the baseline estimates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Rossi, Remo, Malgorzata Graczyk, Lenka Viskotová & David Hampel (2024): The impact of minimum wage on automotive companies' performance. In: Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, Jg. 11, H. 5, S. 931-944. DOI:10.15549/jeecar.v11i5.1736

Abstract

"This paper aims to verify the relationship between minimum wage growth and the financial indicators of automotive companies. As a hi-tech sector, the automotive industry is usually not expected to be affected by minimum wage policies. The introduction of the minimum wage in Germany and the dynamic development of the minimum wage in Eastern European countries make it possible to assess this relationship. German, Czech, Polish, and Slovak automotive company data was obtained from the Orbis database. Panel regression models were applied to test for dependencies. The paper detects the association between the growth of the minimum wage and the increase in personnel cost, which is next to the associations with several financial indicators at the company level. The identified impact is specific to small and medium-sized companies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Stansbury, Anna (2024): Incentives to Comply with the Minimum Wage in the US and UK. (SocArXiv papers), 24 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/7kxdw

Abstract

"There is substantial evidence of minimum wage noncompliance in the US and the UK. In this paper, I compile new, comprehensive data on the costs minimum wage violators incur when detected. In both countries, the costs violators face upon detection are often little more than the money they saved by underpaying. To have an incentive to comply under existing penalty regimes, typical US firms would thus have to expect a 47%-83% probability of detection by the DOL, or a 25% probability of a successful FLSA suit. In the UK, typical firms would have to expect a 44%-56% probability of detection. Actual probabilities of detection are substantially lower than this for many firms, and would likely remain so even with realistic increases in enforcement capacity. Improved enforcement alone is thus insufficient: expected penalties must also substantially increase to ensure that most firms have an incentive to comply. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Steuernagel, Anne & Max Krahé (2024): Ambitioniert, aber vertretbar: Einordnung eines 16-Euro-Mindestlohns. (Research report / Dezernat Zukunft - Institut für Makrofinanzen 297838), Berlin, 28 S.

Abstract

"Am 1. Januar 2015 wurde in Deutschland erstmals ein flächendeckender gesetzlicher Mindestlohn von 8,50 Euro eingeführt. Dem sind Jahre vorausgegangen, in denen die Größe des Niedriglohnsektors in Deutschland erst stark anwuchs und dann auf hohem Niveau stagnierte (Grabka & Schröder 2019). Debatten um armutssichere Arbeit prägten die Diskussion. Außerhalb von Deutschland hatten zu diesem Zeitpunkt bereits viele andere Staaten einen gesetzlichen Mindestlohn eingeführt. Bei der Einführung 2015 bewegte sich die Höhe des Mindestlohns in Deutschland gemessen am Kaitz-Index1 im internationalen Mittelfeld" (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Titelbach, Gerlinde, Martin Ertl & Susanne Forstner (2024): Effekte einer allgemeinen Lohnuntergrenze für Österreich. In: Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, Jg. 50, H. 2, S. 19-43. DOI:10.59288/wug502.232

Abstract

"In diesem Artikel untersuchen wir die potenziellen Auswirkungen der Einführung einer allgemeinen Lohnuntergrenze in Österreich. Im Jahr 2021 hätten rund 16 % der Beschäftigten von der Einführung einer Lohnuntergrenze in Höhe von monatlich brutto 2.000 Euro (14-mal pro Jahr) profitiert. Fast die Hälfte der Betroffenen war in Dienstleistungsbranchen (Einzelhandel, freiberufliche Dienstleistungen, Tourismus) beschäftigt, und überdurchschnittlich oft betroffen waren jüngere Beschäftigte, Arbeiter:innen, Beschäftigte mit maximal Pflichtschulabschluss oder mit ausländischer Staatsbürgerschaft. Die Verteilungswirkungen auf die verfügbaren Netto-Haushaltseinkommen werden mithilfe eines Steuertransfer-Mikrosimulationsmodells simuliert. Vor allem Haushalte am unteren Rand der Einkommensverteilung würden profitieren, die Effekte auf die gesamte Einkommensverteilung sind jedoch zu vernachlässigen. Simulationen der Einführung der Lohnuntergrenze in einem makroökonomischen Modell der österreichischen Volkswirtschaft ergeben insgesamt nur moderate Effekte auf gesamtwirtschaftliche Aggregate." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Égert, Balázs, Jarmila Botev & Dave Turner (2024): Minimum Wages at a Turning Point? (CESifo working paper 11586), München, 33 S.

Abstract

"This paper uses cross-country macroeconomic empirical evidence among OECD countries to examine possible non-linear effects on employment of raising the minimum wage, in particular that marginal disemployment effects become larger when the initial minimum wage is already high. Some evidence is found for such effects, particularly for female and older workers, although the estimated threshold beyond which this occurs -- at roughly 50%-60% of the median wage – above which such effects become apparent should be viewed as indicative rather than precise point estimates. The paper also finds that these non-linear disemployment effects are much more apparent for countries with strict Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) and/or with a high labour tax wedge. This suggests caution in applying the findings from much of the 'new' minimum wage literature based on US evidence to other OECD countries where EPL and tax wedges are typically stricter/higher." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Andrieu, Elodie & Malgorzata Kuczera (2023): Minimum Wage and Skills - Evidence from Job Vacancy Data. (TPI working papers / The Productivity Institute 034), Manchester, 62 S.

Abstract

"Low-wage occupations tend to be populated by workers with low levels of education. An increase in the minimum wage, while designed to protect workers in the lower part of the wage distribution, might result in unintended consequences for those same workers. In this paper, we study firms’ reaction to higher minimum wages, exploiting a change to the minimum-wage policy in the UK in 2016. We document how an increase in the minimum wage affects the labour hiring for different education and technical skill levels of workers. The results show that an increase in the minimum wage compressed both the demand for low educated workers and the demand for workers with low levels of technical skills (tech workers) for graduates in low and middle skilled occupations. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find that a large and unexpected change to the minimum wage led to a 11 percentage point decrease in the proportion of non-graduate vacancies and a 15 percentage point decline in the share of low-tech ads. There is evidence for labour-labour substitution at the low-end of the skill distribution and labour-technology substitution for more educated workers as a way to compensate for labour costs increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))