Cohort size and transitions into the labour market
23 January 2017
This paper estimates the effect that the size of an individual’s labour-market entry cohort has on the subsequent duration of search for employment. Survival-analysis methods are applied to empirically assess this relationship using a sample of appren-ticeship graduates who entered the German labour market between 1999 and 2012.
IAB-Discussion Paper 2/2017
EU 4.0 – The Debate on Digitalisation and the Labour Market in Europe
16 January 2017
In the recent years an intensive discussion in politics, research, business and socie-tyon the influence of digitalisation on the working world has evolved. This developmentis expected to exert profound effects on the use of human labour. However, judgements widely diverge. The comprehensive debates on “industry 4.0” and “labour 4.0” in Germany are concerned with influences of digitalisation on the economy and the labour market, substitutability of jobs as well as conditions, qualificationsand regulations for a new world of employment. The underlying report gives an overview for several European countries and for the level of the European Union.
IAB-Discussion Paper 39/2016
Forecasting Labour Supply and Population: An Integrated Stochastic Model
09 January 2017
This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German Population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the Population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and Immigration rates.
IAB-Discussion Paper 1/2017
Economy 4.0 and its labour market and economic impacts
27 December 2016
This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of "Economy 4.0", the digitalisation of the economy as a whole and not only in industrial production processes. These developments involve considerable challenges at enterprise and political level.
The valuation of changes in commuting distances: An analysis using georeferenced data
22 December 2016
We analyze the causal effect of commuting on wages, using a large sample of German Job changers. Information on their home and workplace addresses in combination with road navigation software allows us to calculate exact door-to-door commuting distances with an unprecedented degree of precision. We use a theoretical model on spatial job search to motivate our empirical strategy. By focusing on job moves, we can use panel data techniques and control for unobserved individual heterogeneity.
IAB-Discussion Paper 43/2016
The Growth and Human Capital Structure of New Firms over the Business Cycle
21 December 2016
Recent research suggests that employment in young firms is more negatively impacted during economic downturns than employment in incumbent firms. This questions the effectiveness of policies that promote entrepreneurship to fight crises. We complement Prior research that is mostly based on aggregate data by analyzing cyclical effects at the firm level.
IAB-Discussion Paper 42/2016
Social Ties for Labor Market Access – Lessons from the Migration of East German Inventors
12 December 2016
We study the impact of social ties on the migration of inventors from East to West Germany, using the fall of the Iron Curtain and German reunification as a natural experiment. We identify East German inventors via their patenting track records prior to 1990 and their social security records in the German labor market after reunification.
IAB-Discussion Paper 41/2016
The Effects of Immigration on Household Services, Labour Supply and Fertility
08 December 2016
Fertility and female labour force participation are no longer negatively correlated in developed countries. Recently, the role of immigration has been put forward as a driving factor among others. Increased immigration affects supply and prices of household services, which are relevant for fertility and employment decisions. This paper analyses the effect of immigration on labour supply and fertility of native women in the UK, with a focus on the role of immigration on household services. Adopting an instrumental variable approach based on the country-specific past distribution of immigrants at regional level, I find that immigration increases female labour supply, without affecting fertility. My results show that immigration increases the size of the childcare sector, and reduces its prices, suggesting that immigrants may ease the trade-off between working and child rearing among native women.
IAB-Discussion Paper 40/2016
Patterns and impact of longitudinal measurement error for welfare receipt
30 November 2016
Measurement error is a common phenomenon in the empirical sciences. Longitudinal data can especially be affected by it, as measurement error can influence measures of change, which is one of the primary reasons for collecting longitudinal data in panel surveys. However, measurement error in longitudinal data is rarely analysed.
In this series of papers, the measurement error for welfare receipt is analysed for up to five consecutive panel waves by linking panel survey data with administrative data on the individual level. Results from all four studies suggest that measurement error for welfare receipt is highly differential. The measurement error for welfare receipt is not based on a random process, but based on personal characteristics and the welfare histories of the respondents.